Flyers Preview: Preseason 9/27 vs. Islanders

Now that I've bitched about the Flyers organization's inability to stream a preseason game even nearly as well as the NBA streams D-League games (and preseason games, and draft combines, and everything else), let's switch gears and look at tonight's game.

They're combining the squads from last night, and including a few big names that were inactive last night. Let's go live to Dave Isaac at morning skate:

#Flyers lines
Schenn - Weal - Simmonds
Raffl - Miele - Read
Laughton - Cousins - Weise
VandeVelde - Gordon - Lyubimov

— Dave Isaac (@davegisaac) September 27, 2016

Looking like the #Flyers D pairs for tonight vs. Islanders:
Schultz-Sanheim
Provorov-MacDonald
Del Zotto-Myers

— Dave Isaac (@davegisaac) September 27, 2016

Thanks, Dave.

Forwards

Obviously, it'll be great to see Schenn and Simmonds in action. The same goes for Raffl and Read, though to a slightly lesser extend.

The elephant in the room with these lines is Jordan Weal is basically just a placeholder for Claude Giroux, and I would take that to mean Miele/Read are placeholders for Couturier/Voracek. Based on his play at the World Cup, I would imagine Pierre-Edourard Bellemare will also be taking the place of one of those two fourth line wingers.

Here's what we're watching for tonight up front:

• Can Laughton-Cousins-Weise be an effective line? They're probably going to be the third line this year, and it'd be nice if they showed some promise tonight. 
• Do Matt Read and Jordan Weal belong in the conversation for playing time this year? Weal, of course, is trying to avoid getting sent to the AHL. Read is a bubble guy who they'd love to keep in the organization because of his versatility, but I don't see where he's going to crack the lineup once everyone is back and healthy. 
• Is this fourth line really going to be able to take some pressure off of Claude Giroux and Sean Couturier?  Some combination of these three and Bellemare are being touted as "able to play in their own zone" and "capable of taking tough minutes." If they come out tonight and kill it, that is a great sign for the talented guys we have in the top nine. 

Defense

First, let's list off who's missing. Shayne Gostisbehere just returned from the World Cup and is taking some time to recalibrate and play with his dogs. Radko Gudas is still working through a hand injury. Mark Streit is going to get KILLED by Canada tonight in the first game of the World Cup final. Brandon Manning and Sam Morin (plus the rest of the youngsters) appear to be healthy scratches. 

Now, to the guys we'll actually be able to watch:

• Schultz-Sanheim is a disaster waiting to happen. Schultz needs a puck mover to cover his deficiencies, and I don't know if Sanheim is ready for that task. I don't even know if Mark Streit was ready for that task last season, but I trust the 20-year vet a hell of a lot more than the 20-year-old kid. You can see why they did it though, because the other two pairings are (peeks out from behind a wall) actually kind of strong. 
• Provorov-MacDonald is going to surprise people. I know the knock on MacDonald is his passiveness in the neutral zone (and God, what horrible passiveness it is), but he looked like the best defenseman on the ice in training camp. He has the requisite stick skills to float in the NHL, and if he could figure out how to prevent a zone entry he'd be solid. He wouldn't be worth $5 million per year (puts gun in mouth), but he'd be decent. Provorov is coming off a game where he played 29 minutes. I wouldn't expect him to get that many tonight, but it's impressive that his coaches are testing him in that fashion. 
• Del Zotto-Myers is probably considered the number one pair tonight, and I'm excited to see how Myers responds to the role he's going to have to play. He's big, he can handle the puck, and he can shoot. I imagine they'll try him in a whole host of different roles tonight. I'm really in on Phil Myers, and tonight he could solidify his place in the future of the Flyers blueline. 

Let's Bet On Big Zlatan

We've never placed a season-long soccer bet. Normally, that's something we reserve for college football (see my last post).

But this season might be different, because the most popular team in England signed the most eccentric player in the world. Zlatan Ibrahimovic will don a Manchester United kit for the first time later this month, and it will be a glorious debut.

The line on his goals for the Premier League season, however, is set at just 14.5 on Bovada. That seems really low to me, and I'm thinking we might be able to (1) make some money and (2) get even more Saturday morning enjoyment while watching one of the best teams in the world.

The line being 14.5 poses two questions:

• How many goals do ManU's strikers normally score?
• How many goals does Zlatan normally score?

Let's start with the big guy first, and then look at his new team and league.

Zlatan Ibrahimovic

I'm going to include all major competitions in the last three years because I want to be able to use as large a sample size as possible. 

2016 Euro Cup (and Qualifiers): 11 goals in 13 games

2015-16 with PSG (Ligue 1): 38 goals in 31 games

2015-16 with PSG (Champions League): 5 goals in 10 games

2014-15 with PSG (Ligue 1): 18 goals in 24 games

2014-15 with PSG (Champions League): 2 goals in 6 games

2013-14 with PSG (Ligue 1): 26 goals in 33 games

2013-14 with PSG (Champions League): 10 goals in 8 games

Overall, that's 110 goals in 125 games, or 0.88 goals per game. The EPL season is 38 matches long, meaning he'd blow past the 14.5 total before Christmas if he kept his usual pace. That's an easy bet, right?

Manchester United's Goal Scorers

It's not quite so simple when you look at Man United's stat sheet from last season:

Zlatan is probably better than all of these players, especially when it comes to pure goal scoring, but is the team capable of generating enough offense to allow him to score 15+ goals? Overall, the team scored just 46 goals in EPL play. And what's even more concerning is there wasn't a single Forward who played more than 30 games (Martial led the way with an even 30). 

So if our boy Zlatan is only playing 30 games or so, and they're only scoring 30-35 goals in those games, is he good enough to score half of them with Rooney, Martial, Mata, Rashford, and Memphis breathing down his neck? 

It's really tough to envision him matching his goal totals from France on this United squad. Perhaps, though, this disparity is rooted less in the Red Devils and more in the English league as a whole. 

Premier League Goal Scoring

Last season, in their 38 matches, PSG led Ligue 1 with 102 goals (2.68 goals per game). They were, however, a large outlier, as the next-highest-scoring team was Olympique Lyonnais with 67 (1.76 per game). In Ligue 1 as a whole, 960 goals were scored. 

Manchester City led the was in the EPL last year with 71 goals (1.87 goals per game). But between all 20 league teams, they combined for 1026.

So, excluding the dominance of PSG, England is actually more scoring-friendly. I went through the league tables for France's Ligue 1 and the English Premier League last season - here's the comparison:

Essentially, the bottom half of both leagues was the same in terms of goal-scoring. Troyes brought up the rear in France with just 28 goals for the season (0.74 per game), and Aston Villa did the same in England with 27 goals (0.71 goals per game). Those two teams are now in shittier leagues. 

The whole Over/Under 14.5 goals bet really boils down to one question - how much of PSG's offensive dominance was caused by Zlatan? He scored 38 of the 102 goals and assisted on 13 more. He shared the field with Edinson Cavani (19 goals) and Angel Di Maria (10 goals), and even young Lucas Mora (9 goals) would have ranked highly on ManU's stat sheet. 

The difference between PSG's 102 goals and United's paltry 49 was Zlatan-Cavani-ADM combining for 67 and Martial-Rooney-Mata combining for just 25. That is a HUGE difference - and my bet would be Zlatan is a big part of it. 

Questions To Ask Ourselves

• Do we want to bet on soccer and commit to watching it on weekend mornings and weekday afternoons?
• Do we like Zlatan as an athlete/character?
• Do we think that at least a third of PSG's offensive trio's output was generated or caused by Zlatan?
• Do we think Zlatan is better than Anthony Martial and/or Wayne Rooney?

The obvious answer to all of these questions in a resounding YES, so please go ahead and sign me up for Zlatan Over 14.5 EPL goals (-105). 

Is It Too Early To Start Looking At College Football Team Props?

The answer, of course, is no. There are so few sports happening right now that the biggest story on my Twitter timeline is Taylor Swift Instagramming that she's going to sue Kim Kardashian for Snapchatting a recorded phone conversation with Kanye West.

Peak Millennialism.

So let's cut the nerd social media talk and start talking about football, like men. College football season props are out on Bovada, and I'm going to give you picks for every division that matters.

Big XII

(Editor's note: the Big 12 doesn't have divisions, so they just lump everyone into one huge division and the whole thing ends in a three-way tie every season.)

Who Won Last Year: Oklahoma

Who's Favored This Year: Oklahoma -140

Some Other Teams To Consider: Oklahoma State +500, TCU +500

Ha Ha This Team Has No Chance: Kansas +25000

Bob Stoops' Sooners are the heavy favorite to repeat, primarily because they'll be returning quarterback Baker Mayfield and running back Samaja Perine. There's no reason to bet against them, just accept the moneyline wherever you can get it and count your money in December.

And oh by the way, you could add three more zeroes onto the end of that Kansas moneyline and I still wouldn't bet a dollar on it.

ACC - Atlantic

Who Won Last Year: Clemson

Who's Favored This Year: Clemson -110

Some Other Teams To Consider: Florida State +125, Louisville +600

Ha Ha This Team Has No Chance: Wake Forest and Syracuse are both +5000, which really makes me happy

As tough as it might be to bet against the defending conference champions that came within one score of being national champions, I reside in a Florida State household.

Dalvin Cook is going to be the best running back in the conference. Sean Maguire will be a solid quarterback, and if he gets beat out for the job it will be by a stud underclassman. Defensive end Marcus Walker decided to stay in school for his senior season, and he's probably going to be a first round pick next year. I love the payout of +125 and I'm all over FSU this year.

ACC - Coastal 

Who Won Last Year: North Carolina

Who's Favored This Year: Miami +150

Some Other Teams To Consider: Pitt +300, Va Tech +325, UNC +400

Ha Ha This Team Has No Chance: Virginia +4000

The Coastal division is a real crapshoot this year. Other than Duke and Virginia, every team has odds of 10/1 or shorter. That's a plus if you are a fan of a team and are going to bet them anyway, but it's a negative for us because it just means we're going to lose money.

But I told you I'd give you a bet for every division, so here's your bet for the Coastal: bet on your Atlantic team to win the whole ACC. Bingo bango.

Big Ten - East

Who Won Last Year: Michigan State

Who's Favored This Year: Ohio State +100

Some Other Teams To Consider: Michigan +125, Michigan State +600

Ha Ha This Team Has No Chance: All of the rest of the teams Rutgers +5000

This is what the Big Ten East should be. Just Ohio State/Michigan/Michigan State dominance and hatred. This is, outside of the SEC, the one division you want to make sure you have a dog in the fight.

For us, it's Michigan because the other two have to replace Joey Bosa, Ezekiel Elliot, Connor Cook, and some other NFL-bound players.

Big Ten - West

Who Won Last Year: Iowa

Who's Favored This Year: Iowa +100

Some Other Teams To Consider: Nebraska +200, Wisconsin +400, Northwestern +900 (kidding?)

Ha Ha This Team Has No Chance: Purdue +3300

In a similar sense as the ACC Coastal, this division is kind of a crapshoot. Iowa is probably going to win, but they aren't really blowing anyone away in any aspect of the game. If you like Wisconsin or Nebraska, throw some money down on a beefy line. If you like getting drunk at 11:30am on Saturdays, bet on Northwestern.

It's really whatever you prefer, but personally I am a fan of morning drinking and football so I am in on the Wildcats.

Pac-12 - North

Who Won Last Year: Stanford

Who's Favored This Year: Stanford +160

Some Other Teams To Consider: Washington +175, Oregon +300

Ha Ha This Team Has No Chance: Oregon State +5000

One quick note: Oregon State has a 0% chance of winning the divison, but they have a 100% chance of upsetting someone and throwing a wrench into that team's National Title hopes.

As far as the actual division winner, I think Stanford is overvalued based on recent success and Washington is undervalued for the same reason (or the opposite reason, depending on how you see it).

The Huskies are returning their entire offensive line and backfield, plus receiver John Ross III should be huge. Oh and their defense last year led the conference in yardage and scoring and will return 7 starters for this season.

Pac-12 - South

Who Won Last Year: USC

Who's Favored This Year: UCLA +140

Some Other Teams To Consider: USC +175, Utah +500, ASU +650

Ha Ha This Team Has No Chance: Colorado +2000

Really, this is a two-horse race between the Los Angeles teams. It comes down to who you prefer, and I'm going to make a quick and easy comparison chart for these two (sources here and here):

• Quarterback: UCLA's Josh Rosen is unquestionably more valuable than anything USC will be able to replace Cody Kessler with. 1-0 Bruins. 
• Rest of the offense: UCLA's got a three-headed running back trio, and they're apparently going to be employing a fullback and at least one tight end for most of the time. However, USC's returning their whole offensive line and they have a pair of running backs that should be as good if not better than UCLA's. 1-1, tied game. 
• Defense: UCLA has a very staunch defensive line, a less solid group of linebackers, and some brittle-boned defensive backs. USC is about the exact opposite, in that they have a fuckton of talent in the secondary and it gets less impressive as you move toward the line of scrimmage. This one is a tie, so we'll move the score to 2-2. 
• Other/intangibles: UCLA's two best players are their quarterback and defensive tackle Eddie Vanderdoes. USC's two best are a wide receiver and a cornerback. I'm taking the QB and the big man as more important, and UCLA wins this little exercise by a hair. 

SEC West

Who Won Last Year: Alabama

Who's Favored This Year: Alabama -130

Some Other Teams To Consider: LSU +225, Auburn +700, Ole Miss +1200, Texas A&M +1400, Arkansas +1400

Ha Ha This Team Has No Chance: Mississippi State +2000

While it may seem like it's a two horse race, it's the SEC West so any of these teams (or at least most of them) could end up being the best team in the country. There isn't a ton of value on 'Bama, but if you think another year of development for Leonard Fournette could bump LSU up from their 5-3 record last year, the Tigers might be the play. Really, anyone other than Bama or LSU is a long shot that you shouldn't expect much from.

For me, the questions in the passing attack make LSU really tough to pick. But Alabama has question marks at basically every position in the backfield, so I feel safer with LSU at +225 than I would with Alabama -130.

SEC East

Who Won Last Year: Florida

Who's Favored This Year: Tennessee -125

Some Other Teams To Consider: Georgia +200, Florida +450, Mizzou +1600

Ha Ha This Team Has No Chance: South Carolina, Kentucky, and Vandy are all +2500

Even though the payout for Tennessee is about the same as Alabama, I like the Vols bet much more than I like the Tide bet. Georgia doesn't scare me, Florida peaked last year, and the other three would be laughable opponents for Bama or LSU in the SEC title game. It has to be Tennessee, and even though the moneyline is a little prohibitive I like the Vols.

The Bet Slip

• Big XII: Oklahoma -140
• ACC Atlantic: Florida State +125
• ACC Coastal: No thanks, just take FSU to win the whole conference +225
• Big Ten East: Michigan +125
• Big Ten West: Northwestern +900 (kidding?)
• Pac-12 North: Washington +175
• Pac-12 South: UCLA +140
• SEC West: LSU +225
• SEC East: Tennessee -125

NHL Draft Betting Preview

The first round of the NHL Draft is tonight, and it should be just as exciting and well-produced as last night's NBA Draft because hockey is totally a Big Four Mainstream Sport in the United States. And, like all big sports, we're going to try to use our limited knowledge to make some money off of it. Bovada has a nice selection of draft prop bets available, if you're into that sort of thing.

For reference on what people smarter than me seem to think, I LOVE Platinum Seat Ghosts' Aggregate Rankings.

Defensemen Drafted In The First Round - Over/Under 8.5

The locks are Juolevi, Sergachyov, Chychrun, Bean, Fabbro, and McAvoy. Those six will all go in the first twenty picks. Then it gets a little dicey, because the next batch is a definite step down from Fabbro/McAvoy. Names like Stanley, Clague, Cholowski, Hajek, Johanson, Fox, Girard, and Deneen have all been projected - by someone or another - to go in the first round. But it's tough to say that three of them will, and I think there is enough forward depth in this draft that it won't get to nine.

Verdict: Under 8.5

Goalies Drafted In The First Round - Over/Under 0.5

In all of the projections that PSG uses to make his aggregate rankings, only two people had a goalie going in the first round. Carter Hart and Jonas Gustavsson are the only two realistic options, and their aggregate rankings are 39 and 44 overall.

What seals the deal for me is the moneyline. Over pays +200 and Under pays -300. It's not happening.

Verdict: Under 0.5

Players Drafted From The CHL (16.5), OHL (10), QMJHL (3.5), and WHL (2.5) In The First Round

The easiest way to do this is go league-by-league and then add them all up.

OHL (Over/Under 10)

Locks: Tkachuk, Juolevi, Nylander, Brown, Sergachyov, Chychrun, McLeod, Jones, DeBrincat, Stanley

Maybes: Boris Katchouk (aggregate 28, best 22), Jordan Kyrou (aggregate 32, best 28), Cluff Pu (aggregate 48, lowest 18)

Verdict: I think it very well may end up being an even ten players, but I like the low-risk opportunity. Over 10

QMJHL (Over/Under 3.5)

Locks: Dubois, Gauthier

Maybes: Pascal Laberge (aggregate 27, best 23), Vitaly Abramov (aggregate 30, best 21), Samuel Girard (aggregate 46, best 23)

Verdict: I think we're good for at least four. Over 3.5's a good play

WHL (Over/Under 2.5)

Locks: Bean, Howden

Maybes: Kale Clague (aggregate 31, best 22), Tyler Benson (aggregate 34, best 18), Libor Hajek (aggregate 35, best 26), Carter Hart (aggregate 39, best 24)

Verdict: Clague and/or Benson are probably good, so that'll take us through. Over 2.5

CHL (Over/Under 16.5)

And now we just add it all up. The locks are 10 from the OHL, 2 from the Q, and 2 from the WHL. If you trust my super-uninformed analysis, I'm thinking a pair of the maybes from each of the Q and WHL are getting drafted.

Verdict: Over 16.5

Players From The USHL/USDP/NCAA (Over/Under 6)

Locks: Keller, McAvoy, Bellows, Kunin, Tufte

Maybes: Tage Thompson (aggregate 29, best 24), Adam Fox (aggregate 45, best 27)

Verdict: I feel the opposite here than I did about the OHL. I think best-case scenario is six, and I could see it only being five. It's not worth the risk for me either way.

Bet Slip

Under 8.5 defensemen
Under 0.5 goalies
Over 10 from the OHL
Over 3.5 from the QMJHL
Over 2.5 from the WHL
Over 16.5 from the CHL

Flyers-Red Wings Preview: Things To Watch

If you are any sort of Flyers or Red Wings (or Bruins) fan, you know the implications of tonight's game in Detroit. Whichever team wins will increase their playoff odds by nearly 20%, and whichever team loses will be in a big hole for the rest of the season. If you're looking for different numbers/scenarios, there are better places to go (I'd recommend BSH).

Tonight will be the third and final matchup between Detroit and Philadelphia this season.

Game One: January 17th (Flyers won 2-1 in a shootout) (via War On Ice)

Notable Flyers who played: Gostisbehere, Del Zotto, Umberger, Medvedev, Laughton, Neuvirth

Notable Flyers who did not: Cousins, MacDonald, Mason

Notable Red Wings roster notes: nothing jumps out at me, other than Mrazek in goal

Voracek/Simmonds/Giroux led Flyers forwards in 5-on-5 ice time, with RJ Umberger just behind them. Ryan White got kicked out after like 30 seconds of ice time. Laughton, Read, Bellemare, Schenn, and Vandevelde were definitively behind the top two lines.

Both teams scored their regulation goals at even strength, but the Wings out-shot and out-Corsi'd the Flyers pretty handily (18-14 and 41-25). One reason is the disparity in offensive zone faceoffs - 18 to 4 in favor of Detroit. That can't happen for the Flyers, who have a premier offensive zone draw winner and have some crafty plays to run after those faceoffs.

Both teams had a lot of powerplay time, and they used it to generate 19 (Philly) and 20 (Detroit) shot attempts (4 and 2 of those, respectively, were considered High Danger). But Neuvirth and Mrazek dueled, and the game ended with a rare Flyers shootout win.

Game Two: March 15 (Flyers won 4-3) (via Corsica)

Notable Flyers who played: Laughton, Gagner, Cousins, Mason

Notable Flyers who did not: Voracek, Umberger, Del Zotto, Medvedev

Notable Red Wings roster notes: I remember that this was Andreas Athanasiou's first NHL game, and Mrazek played again

In Jake's absence, the Flyers' 5-on-5 time was split pretty evenly among the following forwards (in order, ranging from 12.5 to 13.5 minutes) Couturier/Simmonds/Schenn/Raffl/Giroux/Vandevelde. Did I miss something in this game? Was Giroux-Vandevelde at even strength done on purpose?

Behind those top six forwards in ice time were Gagner, Bellemare, White, Laughton, Read, Cousins. Now I think I remember - Gagner should be ahead of CVV in the depth chart because he was filling in for Voracek, but Vandy must have gotten stuck out after a penalty kill for an extra shift. Got it.

This was a three phase game. The Flyers caved the Wings in early, scoring two first-period goals and out-shooting Detroit 23-3 in the first twenty minutes. The middle of the game was back-and-forth, with each team scoring a pair of goals in the second period. The final 15 minutes or so was a barrage of Detroit shots - including a Tomas Tatar goal - but the Flyers were able to deny a late equalizer.

Mark Streit and Nick Schultz led the Flyers in ice time. If that happens again tonight - even if it's just because Hakstol likes to be conservative when he gets a lead - I will light myself on fire.

What Are We Looking For In Game 3?

1. The Flyers will, for the second matchup in a row, be without their entire healthy lineup. This time it will be just Del Zotto who sits, as Voracek is back to (basically) 100%. How much of a difference does Jake make, both in the top six and (via the trickle-down effect) the bottom six?

2. The Cousins-Read-Gagner line was together last month, but they've been playing really impressive hockey since then. How much does it matter that we have a legit third line now?

3. Why is Andrew MacDonald playing?

4. Can we please win so we don't have to beat Pittsburgh this weekend?

2016 Grammys Betting Preview

Every hipster's least favorite awards show of the year is on tonight - The Grammys. It's a night where we celebrate Taylor Swift, Bruno Mars, Meghan Trainor, and the rest of the people who have slowly ruined music over the past decade or so. Year after year of seeking a huge payday has left us with a bunch of rich artists and labels, and a whole lot of crappy songs on the radio.

So, we might as well make some money of our own right? Bovada has four props available:

Album of the Year

Nominees: Taylor Swift's 1989 (-250), Kendrick Lamar's To Pimp A Butterfly (+300), and then Alabama Shakes, The Weeknd, and Chris Stapleton are all pretty heavy underdogs

Recent winners:Beck's Morning Phase (2015), Daft Punk's Random Access Memories (2014), Mumford & Sons' Babel (2013), Adele's 21 (2012), Arcade Fire's The Suburbs (2011), Taylor Swift's Fearless (2010)

I love Taylor Swift, I know Dag loves Taylor Swift, and I just wish the line on 1989 paid more. Lock that in, and maybe mix it into a parlay.

Best New Artist

Nominees: Meghan Trainor (-125), James Bay (+200), Sam Hunt (+500), and then Courtney Barnett and Tori Kelly are pretty heavy underdogs

Recent winners: Sam Smith (2015), Macklemore (2014), Fun (2013), Bon Iver (2012), Esperanza Spalding (2011), Zac Brown Band (2010)

As you can see, to win Best New Artist you don't really have to be new and you definitely don't have to be the best. For reference, my picks for those six years would have been:

• 2015 - I have no complaints with Sam Smith
• 2014 - I'm pretty sure that even Macklemore thought Kendrick Lamar should win
• 2013 - Your options here were Fun, Alabama Shakes, Hunter Hayes, Frank Ocean, and the Lumineers. Am I allowed to pick nobody?
• 2012 - I'd go Skrillex just because of how revolutionary he was
• 2011 - How the FUCK did Esperanza Spalding win over Justin Bieber, Drake, Florence and the Machine, and Mumford & Sons? Holy Christ
• 2010 - Zac Brown was the right choice

I had never heard of James Bay until writing this post, but he almost kinda looks like Keira Knightley. I'm not sure if that's going to help him or hurt him here. Courtney Barnett and Tori Kelly are also total question marks for me, but their odds are so high that I'd be shocked if they won. 

That leaves us with Meghan Trainor (who I hate) and Sam Hunt (who a lot of people hate) to wager on. I think I'd stay away here, because I refuse to bet on Trainor and I don't think Sam Hunt will win for the same reason Skrillex didn't win; he has a unique sound that will likely end up changing quite a bit in the genre, but that doesn't get rewarded with a Grammy. 

You know, after writing that, I think I'm in on James Bay. He's got a decent payout at +200 and Wikipedia tells me he started playing guitar after he heard Eric Clapton's Layla. Why not, right? #cocaine

Record of the Year

Nominees: Bruno Mars' Uptown Funk (-500), Taylor Swift's Blank Space (+600), The Weeknd's Can't Feel My Face (+600), Ed Sheeran's Thinking Out Loud (+1400), and then a D'Angelo song is +2500

Recent winners: Sam Smith's Stay With Me (2015), Daft Punk's Get Lucky (2014), Gotye's Somebody That I Used To Know (2013), Adele's Rolling In The Deep (2012), Lady Antebellum's Need You Now (2011), Kings Of Leon's Use Somebody (2010)

Two notes here: first, there's like a 50% chance the Record is coming from the Best New Artist in any given year. Except there's no pair that would work, so just go ahead and cancel that whole theory for this year. 

Second, the winner of the Record of the Year category is almost always a song that I think is good. This year, that means we can throw D'Angelo and Ed Sheeran in the trash. You can essentially get 3/1 odds by betting on both Blank Space and Can't Feel My Face, but that might be a waste of money. Out of all the lines Bovada has, Uptown Funk is far and away the most heavily favored. 

Song of the Year

Nominees: Taylor Swift's Blank Space (-150), Ed Sheeran's Thinking Out Loud (+200), Wiz Khalifa's See You Again (+700), Kendrick Lamar's Alright (+900), and then a Little Big Town song is +2000

Recent winners: Sam Smith's Stay With Me (2015), Lorde's Royals (2014), Fun's We Are Young (2013), Adele's Rolling In The Deep (2012), Lady Antebellum's Need You Now (2011), Beyonce's Single Ladies (2010)

Am I crazy for thinking See You Again should be more heavily favored here? At +700, it's in the same range as songs that have almost no chance of winning in some other categories. But the story behind the song is a really emotional one, and it would be a very touching moment on stage. 

The Bet Slip

AotY 1989 (-250)

BNA James Bay (+200)

RotY Blank Space (+600)

RotY Can't Feel My Face (+600)

SotY See You Again (+700)

National Championship Betting Preview

Confession time: I haven't really been paying attention to college football since the regular season ended. The most I saw of 90% of bowl games was the ghost town stadiums on the Empty Seats twitter account.

We didn't even really look to bet on the semifinal games. I kind of paid attention to them on New Years Eve but I was more focused on drinking rum and cokes. It capped off a week of top-tier college football games that we didn't really pay attention to.

With hockey, college basketball, and pro football seasons in full swing, it's easy to get distracted and forget about college football. Even tonight, I'll probably be more focused on David Bowie than I am on Alabama-Clemson.

But it's the biggest football game of the season so far, and I think that's a good occasion to win some money.

Total Team Points: Alabama 29.5, Clemson 23

'Bama was only held under 29 points twice all year: at home against Arkansas (27) and Tennessee (19). It's important to note that they won both of those games, limiting Arkansas and Tennessee each to just 14 points.  Tennessee ranks 36th in the nation in yards per game against (362.0), and Arkansas is 58th (391.6). Clemson, though they have admittedly played an easier schedule than any SEC team, are 6th in the nation in YPG allowed (301.6).

Clemson has been held below 23 points just once all season, when they scored 20 at Louisville. They were held close against Notre Dame (24) and Florida State (23). Again, it's important to note that they won all three of these games despite being held well below their season average of 38.4 points. It would certainly be a feat for Alabama to hold them below 23 points, but the Tide have managed to do just that against Wisconsin, Georgia, Arkansas, Tennessee, LSU, Mississippi State, Auburn, Florida, and Michigan State this season.

Point Spread: Alabama -7

That leads me to my first real bet of the night: Alabama -7 (or buy half a point to get it inside a touchdown if you prefer).

The Tide only lost one game all year, and won by less than a touchdown once. The narrow win was against Tennessee (discussed above), and it was a low-scoring affair that doesn't seem likely to happen again versus Clemson, who can certainly score with ease against most teams.

The Tide loss was a barn-burner against Ole Miss. The final score was 43-37 Ole Miss, and they were led by quarterback Chad Kelly's 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. Had Alabama limited its turnovers (3 interceptions will kill you), the Tide could be seeking a perfect season. But they fell victim to a staunch Ole Miss defense and dug themselves a hole that proved too large to escape.

Here's why I don't expect Clemson to replicate that upset: that game was the pinnacle of Ole Miss' season. They finished 10-3 after their convincing bowl win over Oklahoma State. They finished 6-2 in the conference and came in second place in the best division in football. But their biggest accomplishment was knocking off the Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa. They played a perfect game and still only won by 6 points.

Clemson only played 3 ranked teams all season. They beat Notre Dame, Florida State, and North Carolina (all home games) by a combined 20 points. That may seem like a healthy margin, but those teams are decidedly in this season's second tier. Now, the Tigers have to travel 2,000 miles from home and play the best team (and the best coach) in college football for the past decade.

Jake Coker To Throw An Interception -130
Deshaun Watson To Throw An Interception -190
Parlay Both QB's To Throw At Least One Pick Each +170

There are some aspects of the loss to Ole Miss that figure to reappear in Arizona tonight: interceptions. Tide quarterback Jake Coker has not thrown one since November 14th, and has avoided turnovers in the four games down the stretch.

But Clemson's defense has tallied five picks in the past four games, bringing their total to 16 on the season. Alabama's defense has totaled 18 this year, and figures to snag at least one from Watson, who's thrown just about a pick per game all season.

Derrick Henry Rushing Yards Over/Under 145.5
Derrick Henry Total Touchdowns Over/Under 1.5

Yes, Clemson largely creamed Oklahoma in their semifinal game. They held Baker Mayfield to 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions, but the biggest disparity in the game was in rushing offense. Clemson held Oklahoma to just 67 rushing yards. Total. As an entire team. And that includes a pair of 18 yard rushes each by Mayfield and receiver Dede Westbrook.

Clemson did well to hold Samaje Perine well under 100 yards (and to just one touchdown).  On the season, Perine totaled 1349 rushing yards, 6.0 yards per carry, and 16 touchdowns on the season. Obviously, Oklahoma's defense held him below his season average.

Henry, in a tougher conference defensively than Perine, totaled 2061 yards on 5.7 yards per carry and 25 touchdowns. Even if Clemson holds him down (proportionally) the same way they held Perine in check, he's still good for about a hundred yards and two touchdowns.

I'm inclined to bet both Overs here, because Henry has gone over in at least one of these categories in 12 of 14 games this year. The outliers were against ULM (only 13 carries in a blowout) and Arkansas (only 95 yards and 1 TD.. somehow that's his worst game of the season). There were four games this year where he ran for more than 145 yards and 2+ touchdowns: Wisconsin, Texas A&M, LSU, Mississippi State. He was used lightly against Michigan State last week, but he was on pace to make it five enormous games in a row that he dominated. He's a big game performer, and I expect him to put on a show tonight.

Tuesday Night MACtion Preview: Toledo @ Central Michigan

To simplify this game, Toledo is a run-based offense (5.3 yards per attempt, 222.9 yards per game, 16 rushing touchdowns) that ranks top 3 in the conference in rushing and bottom 3 in passing. CMU is a pass-based offense (296.2 yards per game, 20 touchdown passes) that ranks in the top 3 in passing and is dead last in rushing.

I love these games because we'll see how Toledo has handled good passing teams, how CMU has handled good rushing teams, and then figure out where we can make a bunch of money. At the time of me writing this, the line is Toledo -4.5.

Toledo against the pass:

• Arkansas: 32/53 attempts, 412 yards, 0 touchdowns, 1 interception (they average 280.2 yards, 2.3 touchdowns, 0.6 interceptions)
• Iowa State: 26/43, 274 yards, 1 touchdown, 0 interceptions (239.2 yards, 1.6 touchdowns, 1.0 interceptions)
• Arkansas State: don't pay attention to this game, they aren't a real school
• Ball State: 23/37, 236 yards, 1 touchdown, 0 interceptions (221.8 yards, 1.4 touchdowns, 0.6 interceptions)
• Kent State: don't pay attention to this game, they're the worst passing team in the MAC
• Eastern Michigan: 25/39, 205 yards, 0 touchdowns, 1 interception (218.3 yards, 1.4 touchdowns, 1.4 interceptions)
• UMass: 27/49, 240 yards, 4 touchdowns, 1 interception (293.0 yards, 1.9 touchdowns, 1.0 interceptions)
• Northern Illinois: 16/25, 277 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception (236.1 yards, 1.7 touchdowns, 0.6 interceptions)

UMass is right behind CMU in terms of passing yards in the conference, but CMU throws the ball more efficiently. It's important to note that Toledo won that game despite giving up 4 touchdown passes (Toledo QB Phillip Ely threw 5). 

Overall, with the exception of the UMass game, Toledo's defense does a good job of containing against the pass. In every game listed above (and the two not listed), they've held opponents to under or around their averages in passing yards and touchdowns. That's why they're a road favorite tonight. 

Central Michigan against the two MAC teams similar to Toledo's running game:

• Northern Illinois: 59 carries, 211 yards, 3.6 yards per carry, 2 touchdowns (they average 47.4 carries, 207.0 yards, 4.4 yards per carry, 2.8 touchdowns)
• Western Michigan: 41 carries, 215 yards, 5.2 yards per carry, 1 touchdown (39.6 carries, 208/2 yards, 5.3 yards per carry, 2.1 touchdowns)

I want to note that WMU's quarterback had a near-perfect day, with 15 completions on 22 attempts for 262 yards, 4 touchdowns, and a bananas 94.1 QBR. I'm going to make a mental note to bet on them in the future, because they lost to Michigan State and Ohio State, flubbed a game at Georgia Southern, and have creamed almost everyone else. My man Clay Travis loves Bowling Green this year, but BGSU travels to WMU tomorrow night, and I like the Broncos as a 3-point home dog. 

Back to the game at hand, though, and I like Toledo here. I almost like them too much - this feels like a CMU line, but I don't think Toledo has a problem covering 4.5 at all. 

Monday Night Football Preview: Colts @ Panthers

It's a bleak time for us. We can't afford food. We can't afford beer. I have a Blackberry so I can't even drive with Uber (dot com) to make some extra life-changing money. Here's how we've fared so far on weeknight games:

Monday Nights: 18-24
Thursday Nights: 12-14-2

We aren't going to make up 8 wins tonight, but we need some momentum for the second half of the season. That's the logic we're using, and it also applies perfectly to the Philadelphia Eagles. 

Through 7 games, the Colts are a meager 3-4 and have disappointed everyone who considered them a real contender. The Panthers, on the other hand, have blown past expectations and have started the season undefeated through 6 games. 

For tonight's matchup, I'm going to throw out some fun stats to brighten your Monday morning (and then follow it up with some related bets to ruin your Monday night).

Fun Stat #1: In first halves, the Colts have thrown for just 5.6 yards per attempt, 4 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, have a QB rating of just 69.2. They have just 1 first half rushing touchdown and 2 fumbles. In second halves, they've thrown for 7.3 yards per attempt and 10 touchdowns (and 5 interceptions). The rushing attack has also seen a little more success in the second half, but the jump isn't as significant because the Colts stink and are always playing from behind. 

Along the same lines, you would expect Carolina to have more rushing success in the second halves of their victories. They've certainly relied more on the run in second halves (106 attempts to 91 first-half attempts), but they've only scored 1 more touchdown in the second half than the first, and their yards per rush drop from 5.2 in the first half to 3.8 in the second. However, their passing attack improves from 4 touchdowns/5 interceptions/5.9 yards per attempt in the first half to 5 touchdowns/2 interceptions/8.3 yards per attempt in the second. 

The Colts' defense has 5 interceptions in first halves so far, compared to just 2 in the second half. The Panthers' D has 3 in the first half and 6 in the second, which is certainly helped by the fact that they are usually winning (and forcing the other team into obvious passing situations). 

Related Bet #1: First half under 23 (-115). The total for the game is 46 points, so this first half under feels like a steal. 

Fun Stat #2: There is an enormous gap between the payouts for First Score Of The Game:

• Colts Safety (+5000) and Panthers Safety (+5000) aren't going to happen
• Colts Field Goal (+400)
• Panthers Field Goal (+325)
• Colts Touchdown (+300)
• Panthers Touchdown (+130)

Related Bet #2: How more obvious can it be? Vegas knows what's going to happen. Midas whale profit off it - Carolina TD +130, please and thank you. 

Fun Stat #3: The Panthers have allowed just 5 passing touchdowns and 6 rushing touchdowns through 6 games. Vegas expects Andrew Luck to throw 1 or 2 touchdowns, and they expect TY Hilton (and to a slightly lesser extent, Donte Moncrief) to have a big night. 

Frank Gore has all 3 rushing touchdown for Indianapolis this year. Moncrief (5) and Hilton (3) lead the team in receiving touchdowns, and Fleener/Johnson/Dorsett/Allen/Whalen have each caught one. 

Related Bet #3: Gore (+125), Hilton (+125), and Moncrief (+175) are the only bets I'd even consider making on this side. Few running backs have had a lot of success against Carolina, but they've given up touchdowns to Doug Martin, Marshawn Lynch, and Ryan Mathews the past 3 weeks. I wish Gore's prop paid more, but it's a decent bet. 

Teams have been able to have some balanced success against Carolina this year, and they got torched by Vincent Jackson (6'5", 230 pounds) and Jimmy Graham (6'7", 265 pounds). The Colts don't have a wide receiver who fits that mold, but Coby Fleener (+250, 6'6", 251 pounds) seems a likely target if coach Pagano saw the same Box Scores that I did. 

Fun Stat #4: The Colts, on the other hand, have allowed 12 passing touchdowns and 8 rushing touchdowns through 7 games. Vegas expects Cam Newtown to throw more than one touchdown, and they expect Jonathan Stewart and Greg Olsen to have a big night. 

Newton (4) and Stewart (2) have done most of the scoring on the ground, and Mike Tolbert has a touchdown too. Through the air, Ted Ginn (3) and Olsen (3) are the most frequent touchdown scorers. Tolbert, Corey Brown, and Holy Crap Jerrico Cotchery Is Still In The NFL have all also caught one touchdown. 

Related Bet #4: Stewart (-125) and Newton (+100) don't pay as much as you'd like, and you can say the same about Olsen (+110). Even Ted Ginn - who was going to be my Wild Card - pays just +150. I think we have to pick two of those four, but I'm having a tough time deciding so I'm just going to fire away with all four. 

Fun Stat #5: Look at the touchdown props for the Carolina players. Look at Andrew Luck -275 to throw an interception and just +110 to go over 2 touchdowns. Look at the Team Points lines for Indy (20) and Carolina (27). Vegas loves the Panthers tonight, and so do I. 

Related Bet #5: Panthers -7

Monday Night Football Preview: Ravens @ Cardinals

As much as I hate to say it, we are in a bad spot. Two weeks in a row, we had college football teasers blown up by Last Play Of The Game Special Teams Miracles As Time Expires - first Michigan, then Florida State. I can't take any more special teams defense heroics. 

Also we're hemorrhaging money:

Thursday Nights: 12-14-2
Monday Nights: 17-20

So take these bits of advice at your own risk:

Line: Cardinals -9 and Over/Under 49.5

There's a lot to consider with a line that big. For one, the Ravens are 1-5 but have not lost a game by more than 6 points. They have one-possession losses to the Broncos and Bengals, and they beat the Steelers. However, they have losses to the Raiders, Browns, and 49ers. 

On the other side of the field, the Cardinals have blown out the Saints, Bears, 49ers, and Lions by an average of 25.5 points. They lost by 2 to the Rams, and they are coming off a 12 point loss at Pittsburgh. 

I think the best way to attack this is to see how St. Louis and Pittsburgh kept Arizona in check, and then figure out if Baltimore can replicate that. 

The Rams had a very Rams game when they beat the Cardinals 24-22. Nick Foles had just 171 yards, but he threw three touchdowns and zero interceptions. Todd Gurley did the heavy lifting, totaling 146 rushing yards. The biggest thing they did, though, was limiting Carson Palmer and the Cardinals to just one towndown. 

The Steelers also limited Arizona to just one touchdown. Landry Jones and Mike Vick combined for a surprisingly good stat line of 174 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Vick and Le'Veon Bell combined for 135 rushing yards. 

You do not beat the Cardinals by going all "New NFL" on them and trying to throw for 400 yards - just ask Drew Brees, Jay Cutler, and Matt Stafford. You beat them by pounding the ball, chewing up clock, and holding Arizona to field goals instead of touchdowns. 

I might be crazy, but I really like Baltimore here. 

In their Denver game, they held the Broncos to 0 offensive touchdowns, 1 defensive touchdown, and 4 field goals. They couldn't get anything going against Denver's tough defense, and Joe Flacco's 2 interceptions really killed any chance they had of actually winning. 

In their Bengals game, the Ravens got torn up by Andy Dalton. The Red Ginger (or whatever his gay nickname is) had 383 yards and 3 touchdowns, and he also rushed for a touchdown. If Baltimore had made one more stop in the red zone and held Cincy to a field goal, they could have pulled out a win. 

The Pick: Ravens +9 (-110). I think the line is 3-4 points too high, and I think Baltimore is going to be able to keep it close by pounding the ball with Justin Forsett and Javorius Allen.

Now, onto the player props:

The Cards have a running back committee that is led by Chris Johnson (93 carries, 2 touchdowns) but also includes Andre Ellington (16 carries, 2 touchdowns) and David Johnson (21 carries, 3 touchdowns). I really would have liked to take David to score, but Bovada has not made him available. I'm making up my own odds and picking David Johnson To Score A Touchdown (+550). 

On the Baltimore side, my first thought was the entire game is going to go through Forsett. I was thinking about taking him at even money to score, but I'm nervous that he totaled just 56 yards in Baltimore's games against Denver and Cincy. So I'm staying away. 

Kamar Aiken Over 3.5 Receptions (-105) is a tasty bet because he's gone for 5-5-4-3 receptions in the last four games he played. He got at least 7 targets in each of those games, and you have to think the Cardinals will be keying on Steve Smith tonight to try to negate Joe Flacco's first option. 

He's averaging 5.5 catches per game and he had 10 last week, so John Brown Over 4.5 Receptions (-115) sort of feels like stealing. Thanks, Las Vegas! The same goes for Larry Fitzgerald Over 6 Receptions (-140), because Fitz has only caught less than 6 passes once this year, when he caught 5. I think I might make that the lock of the week just so we can all tweet #NiceHandsLarry at each other all night for a good laugh. 

Thursday Night Football: Seahawks @ 49ers

It seems like it was so long ago that a Seahawks-Niners game could be happening two weeks before the Super Bowl. Then Harbaugh went back to college and the Seahawks had to do the Chicago Blackhawks salary cap shed/reload move and they've started two seasons in a row poorly.

So here they are, both at 2-4 and both having showed flashes of the solid teams they've been in the recent past.

I could see tonight going a LOT of ways, but I'm going to throw out a few lines to try to build on our season record (17-20 on Monday nights and 12-11-2 on Thursday nights).

Tease Seahawks -1 and Over 36.5

Except for their Loud Fart Noise against Detroit when they scored just 13 and their loss at Green Bay when they scored 17, Seattle have scored 20+ against every team they've played so far. And they haven't been facing cupcake defenses: the Rams, Bengals, and Panthers have all been good this year. 

On the other side, San Francisco has gotten creamed by the Steelers, Cardinals, and Packers. They blew out Minnesota to start the year and have played close games against the Giants (loss) and Ravens (win) the past two weeks. 

That over/under line is set as if these two defenses were still as elite as they've been the past 5 years. But Seattle is allowing 21.3 points per game (25.6 if you factor out Chicago's 0). San Francisco is allowing 26.7 per game (31.4 if you factor out Minnesota's 3). 

Ultimately I like Seattle because of the following lines: Wilson to throw over 1.5 touchdowns pays -135, while the same line for Kaepernick pays +140. Wilson to throw an interception pays -115, while Kaepernick's line is -155. 

I think I like Seattle's spread even without the tease, and I feel the same way about the over. But teasers are the best and I could absolutely see a situation where Seattle wins 20-17. 

To Score A Touchdown:

Jimmy Graham +120

Marshawn Lynch is the only player in the game who has prohibitive odds to score a touchdown. That kind of tells you what sort of game Vegas is expecting (the Total Touchdowns line is over/under 4.5). Jimmy Graham and Doug Baldwin lead Seattle with 2 receiving touchdowns each, and Lynch actually only has 1 rushing touchdown on the year so far. The Waterbirds defense has 2 touchdowns. 

Colin Kaepernick +300

Carlos Hyde is questionable, which should increase Kap's load - and he already runs 6+ times per game. He's rushed for 228 yards and 1 touchdown, and he's about as likely as anyone on the Niners to convert in the red zone. (This paragraph was sponsored by the ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ emoji.)

Tuesday Night Sun Belt Preview: UL Lafayette @ Arkansas State

Ragin' Cajuns! Red Wolves! Tonight on ESPN2!

My goal with this post is to absolutely nail two bets: the point spread is currently Ark State -9 (looking like it might move to -8.5), and the over/under is a hefty 63 (looking light it might move to 63.5). In the interest of full disclosure, my gut says take the Ragin' Cajuns because that's the best nickname in all of sports.

Ragin' Cajuns Summary

• Junior QB Brooks Haack stinks. He's thrown 0 touchdowns and 4 interceptions on his 66 attempts for the season, and he seems to getting gradually phased out.
• Haack's replacement has been fellow Junior Jalen Nixon. On his 86 attempts, he's totaled 5 touchdowns and just 2 interceptions. Nixon has also rushed for 99 yards in the past two games. 
• ULL does more damage on the ground, totaling 1156 yards and 15 touchdowns through 5 games. They are led by Junior Elijah McGuire's 585 yards (on 6.0 yards per carry) and 7 touchdowns. 
• The Cajuns have a balanced receiving group, with 5 receivers between 12 and 22 receptions on the year. Four of those five have scored a touchdown, and there are 8 receivers who have caught at least one pass of 20+ yards this year. 
• The ULL defense has been all over the place. They gave up 40 at Kentucky (23.4 ppg since), 17 versus Northwestern State (26.6 in other games), 35 versus Akron (26.2 in other games, but they either blow the other team out or get blown out), 43 at Louisiana Tech (35.7 in other games), and 27 versus Texas State (35.8 in other games, but got killed by FSU and Houston). 
• One sentence summary: Hamstrung by interceptions and the lack of a defense against Akron and La Tech, but overall about as solid as you could expect a Sun Belt team to be. 

Red Wolves Summary

• Ark State have been splitting quarterback time between Senior Fredi Knighten (63 attempts, 302 yards, 4 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, 45 rushes, 90 yards, 0 touchdowns, has been a successful runner in the past) and Freshman James Tabary (102 attempts, 788 yards, 4 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, not a rushing threat at all). 
• Similarly productive on the ground, they've totaled 1190 yards and 15 touchdowns. The three-headed beast of Michael Gordon, Warren Wand (A+ porn name), and Johnston White have combined for 1035 of those yards on 6.0 yards per carry, and have scored 14 of the team's rushing touchdowns. 
• JD McKissic leads the team in receptions and yards, and Tres Houston (A+ rap name) leads the team with 4 receiving touchdowns. 
• The Wolves have held just one opponent under 27 points this year: Missouri State, who have gotten absolutely obliterated in 5 of their 6 games this year, with their other game being an 8-point win against Chadron State, who do not have a team page on ESPN. USC scored 55 (average 35.0 in other games), Mizzou scored 27 (17.8 in other games), Toledo scored 37 (34.2 in other games), Idaho scored 35 (23.4 in other games), and South Alabama scored 31 (22.6 in other games). 

After looking at those summaries, how the FUCK can you think Ark State is going to cover a 9 point spread? (Checking Bovada again, the spread have moved all the way down to 7.5 since I started writing.) That's a #shoutout to my fellow sharp bettors, because 9 is a laughable line and even 7.5 is a joke. Tbh I kind of like the Ragin' Cajun moneyline at +265. Forget the over/under, I'm not going to review that. Take whatever money you were going to bet on the over and bet it on the Ragin' Cajuns. #LetsRage

If you're looking for a counterpoint, here's a link to an article on Athlon Sports that basically undermines everything I think about this game.)

Monday Night Football Preview: Giants @ Eagles

If you follow these Thursday Night/Monday Night previews and recaps, you know I've had a bad stretch of picking NFC East games. It's part of the reason I'm just 12-11-2 on Thursday nights and 13-17 on Monday nights. (Another part of it is I got absolutely creamed with last week's Steelers-Chargers game.)

But we're turning the ship around tonight, just like Chip and Sam and the Birds are turning it around. The march for the playoffs started last week against the lowly Saints, and it continues tonight against a decidedly mediocre Giants team.

The G-men are allowing opposing quarterbacks to average 304.2 passing yards per game, 1.6 touchdowns per game, 1.0 interceptions per game. That group includes Tony Romo and Matt Ryan, but it also includes Kurt Cousins, Tyrod Taylor Who Stinks Now, and Colin Kaepernick Who May Or May Not Stink Now.

Opposing running backs, meanwhile, have been held to just 80.6 rushing yards per game and 0.6 rushing touchdowns. That sentence makes me really regret taking DeMarco Murray on FanDuel this week - perhaps I should have researched a little bit more and coughed up the extra $400 for Devonta Freeman.

Opposing "feature backs" have done these things:

• Joseph Randle: 16 carries, 65 yards, 0 touchdowns, 1 fumble
• Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman Combined: 21 carries, 57 yards, 2 touchdowns
• Matt Jones and Alfred Morris Combined: 17 carries, 57 yards, 0 touchdowns, 1 fumble
• Karlos Williams: 18 carries, 40 yards, 0 touchdowns
• Carlos Hyde: 21 carries, 93 yards, 1 touchdowns

For reference, Philly's backs combine to average 24.6 carries per game and 1.0 touchdowns per game. I don't think anybody will deny that DeMarco Murray, Ryan Mathews, and Darren Sproles are as giid or better than any group that NY has faced so far. I'm expecting a decent day on the ground, but the focus here should really be getting Bradford over 300 yards and at least a pair of touchdowns. 

Eagles -4 (-110)

Duh. That one should have been clear from the start. Bovada has the line on the Eagles at 27.5 and the Giants at 22.5. I think the Birds go over and the Giants stay under, but because I think it may end up being a shootout I will just take the plain old spread. 

Darren Sproles to Score a Touchdown (+150)

It's Villanova Graduate Brian Westbrook night at the Linc, as he's getting inducted into the Eagles Hall of Fame before the game. VGBW famously ran a kick back for a touchdown to cripple the Giants, and then Non-Villanova Graduate DeSean Jackson repeated the feat a few years later. This is destiny. Fate. Money in the bank. 

Sam Bradford Passing Yards Over 275.5 (-125)

As discussed above, the Giants are definitely susceptible to a quarterback torch job. Bradford is averaging just 245.8 yards per game, and the line being 30 yards above that is a testament to how bad New York has really been. Against the two teams he's played in the bottom half of the league in defense, #SamIAm went for 336 yards (Atlanta) and 333 yards (New Orleans). 

Sam Bradford Touchdown Passes Over 1.5 (-180)

See above. 

Eli Manning To Throw An Interception (-175)

Guys, it's Eli Manning. This is going to be a fun bet. 

Shane Vereen Receiving Yards Over 39.5 (-115)

Credit where it's due, New York has a solid passing attack. Even if Odell Beckham and Victor Cruz are out, and if Reuben Randle is also out with them, Eli is going to be chucking the ball around. I think Vereen is going to be a guy that benefits, because he can line up in any offensive position on the field. 

Rashad Jennings Over 2 Receptions (-115)

This is a mind blowing line. We know Eli is short on passing options. Jennings has caught 11 passes in the last 4 games. And we have the chance to push if he only catches 2? It's the lock of the week!

Time for me to get back to work. I'll see you guys out there tonight. #FlyEaglesFly

Week 7 College Football Preview: The Night Games

(In case you missed them, I broke down the Florida State-Louisville game here and the rest of the noon games here. Then I previewed afternoon games, Michigan-Michigan State here and Alabama-A&M here. To recap those posts, we're on FSU -7 early, buying the extra half a point if we need to. We're also on Baylor, Purdue, Northwestern, and Texas Tech. We also have Ole Miss in the tease bag, waiting for a partner.)

Florida @ LSU (-7.5), 7:00
We have a lot to get to for tomorrow night so let's cut right to the chase here: LSU has beaten every team by 10+ points except Mississippi State, and they've won every home game by 21+. Miss State played them by far the closest of anyone this year, and LSU squeaked by with a 2 point win. Overall, MSU has a pretty average defense, and the box score doesn't show that they did anything crazy in that game. In reading recaps, it seems like LSU got clipped by some dumb penalties? I like LSU, but I'd prefer to toss it into the tease bag.

Boston College @ Clemson (-16.5), 7:00
Honestly guys, sixteen and a half against the best defense in the country? I don't even know if Clemson can score 17 points. Give me BC, please and thank you.

USC @ Notre Dame (-5), 7:30
As you guys know, we can't bet against Notre Dame. But I wanted to take a second to send some T's and P's to Steve Sarkisian, I hope he gets some help and some clarity in the next few months.

Missouri @ Georgia (-14.5), 7:30
Mizzou has been up and down this season, but Georgia has scored 30+ on everyone except Alabama. If we could tease the Dawgs down to (or even inside) a touchdown, I'd be all for adding it to the teasebag. At 14.5 though? I think I'd have to stay away.

Penn State @ Ohio State (-17.5), 8:00
Here's your weekly Mail It In Direct Quote From Clay Travis On Outkick The Coverage: "I can't tell you guys how much I love this game. Last year Penn State took Ohio State to double overtime after playing them virtually even in total yardage for the entire game. 

There was nothing flukish about this game, in fact, Ohio State actually got the benefit of some atrocious first half calls, otherwise Penn State might have won in regulation.

This year Penn State has won five straight games after a tough opening week loss to Temple. But most of the nation hasn't even noticed this. Meanwhile, Ohio State has been mediocre all season long, failing to cover in every game since week one. 

So you're telling me I've got a Penn State team that knows it was good enough to beat Ohio State last year, going on the road in a game that no one is giving them any chance to win? This is the situation that James Franklin dreams of, he's great at playing the no respect card.

My jaw dropped when I saw this line open at Ohio State -17.5. So far it hasn't budged much off that line. Don't just hammer Penn State here, take them on the money line for a part of your bet too. Get rich, kids."

Arizona State @ Utah (-6), 10:00
I mentioned in the Texas A&M preview that this weekend is when we'll find out if Arizona State is a legit contender out west. They aren't. Utah is going to spank them. This line inside of a touchdown is the easiest money of the whole weekend. Lock of the week, Utah -6.

Oregon @ Washington (-3), 10:30
I was really surprised to see this line. Oregon, recently, has been a contender for the Pac-12 title every year for a long time now Could 3-2 Washington really be favored over them? How fucking disrespectful is that? Then I did some digging (not a lot, tbh) and found that Washington won at USC last week and went to Boise State and only lost by 3 earlier this year. Boise State ran for 2 touchdowns and kicked 2 field goals, and USC ran for 1 and kicked 2. Against Michigan State and Utah (good defenses), Oregon combined to throw for 3 touchdowns, run for 3 more, and kick 0 field goals. Against the rest of their opponents, the Ducks averaged 2.0 touchdowns in the air, 3.8 touchdowns on the ground, and 2.3 field goals. So, yeah, Vegas, I think you fucked up and I think I'll take the Ducks -3 and the moneyline at +125 too.

Week 7 College Football Preview: Alabama @ Texas A&M

(In case you missed them, I broke down the Florida State-Louisville game here and the rest of the noon games here. Then I previewed the other afternoon game, Michigan-Michigan State, here.)

Now it's time for the two biggest games of the day. Two of the three best teams in the Big Ten on one TV, and two of the five best teams in the SEC on the other. (For the record, the rest of that list is Ohio State, LSU, and then maybe Florida and Ole Miss.)

Part 2: Alabama (-4) @ Texas A&M, 3:30, CBS

Anything you're looking into an Alabama game, you have to keep in mind that there is going to be a bias in Bama's favor because of Saban and because they have an ungodly amount of talent on the field and on the bench. A&M is rolling, undefeated, ranked higher than Alabama, and at home. Yet the Tide are favored. That's Alabama football.

So the question of the day/night: are the Tide really that much better than the Aggies? I mean A&M beat Arizona State 38-17 and we'll have to see what happens tomorrow night to know for sure whether ASU is really not a contender in the Pac-12. A&M also beat Arkansas and Mississippi State back in the SEC, and those two really cover the spectrum of run-heavy to pass-heavy in the SEC.

But there seems to be this lingering notion of Alabama being the king of the SEC, and really of the whole college football world. They beat Wisconsin and Arkansas pretty easily at home, and they went on the road and stomped the shit out of Georgia.

But the Tide's lone loss is also the crux of my preview: Bama had Ole Miss at home, and couldn't contain Chad Kelly and the Rebels enough to pull out a win. Kelly went off for 341 yards and 3 touchdowns without an interception, and he only needed 33 attempts (18 completions) to do it. Alabama out-rushed A&M 215 yards to 92, but both teams ran in two scores. The difference, really, was Alabama's quarterbacks combining for 3 interceptions.

As I write this, the over/under is at 54 and looking it might drop to 53. I LOVE the over here. A&M wants to throw the ball, and I just told you how Alabama fared against the other elite passing team in the SEC. Bama wants to run the ball, and A&M probably can't stop them:

• Arizona State ran for 92 yards and 1 touchdown (average 197.0 yards and 1.3 touchdowns in their other games)
• Ball State ran for 240 yards and 2 touchdowns (164.8 and 1.8)
• Nevada ran for 153 yards and 1 touchdown (236.2 and 2.0)
• Arkansas ran for 232 and 2 touchdowns (166.4 and 1.2)
• Mississippi State ran for 196 yards and 2 touchdowns (140.8 and 1.6)

In conclusion, I am 80% certain that Texas A&M will not be able to contain Alabama's rushing attack. I am 60% certain that Alabama will not be able to contain Texas A&M's passing attack. I think both teams will get into the 20s with ease, and I think the total will blow past 54. 

As for the point spread, I don't know how you can look at the facts and determine that A&M has any significant advantage except for home field. Even if A&M throws a gem like Chad Kelly did, they won't be able to bank on their defense to match those 3 interceptions, and they definitely won't be able to bank on Derrick Henry being slowed down. I like Alabama -4. 

Week 7 College Football Preview: MSU @ Michigan

(In case you missed them, I broke down the Florida State-Louisville game here and the rest of the noon games here.)

Now it's time for the two biggest games of the day. Two of the three best teams in the Big Ten on one TV, and two of the five best teams in the SEC on the other. (For the record, the rest of that list is Ohio State, LSU, and then maybe Florida and Ole Miss.)

Part 1: Michigan State @ Michigan (-7), 3:30, ESPN

After their opening week loss at Utah, Michigan has won 5 games by a combined score of 160-14.

Go re-read that sentence. The Wolverines lost away from home to the best team in the Pac-12 by one touchdown. Since then, they have absolutely creamed everyone in their path. BYU and Northwestern were both ranked when Michigan beat them (31-0 and 38-0, respectfully).

The Wolverine defense is out here lambasting fools. They:

• are averaging 6.3 points against per game for the season (best in the nation)
• are second in the nation in pass yards allowed per game and third in rush yards allowed per game
• held Utah to 24 points (40.3 points per game in other games)
• held Oregon State to 79 passing yards, 59 rushing yards, and 7 points (they stink though but still)
• held UNLV to 7 points, and then UNLV put up 80 the next week (against Idaho State but still)
• shut out BYU (33.2 points per game in other games)
• held Maryland to 76 passing yards, 29 rushing yards, and 0 points (Terps kind of stink)
• shut out Northwestern and held them to 38 rushing yards (Cats averaged 248.8 rushing yards and 25.4 points in their other games)

The closest Michigan State has gotten to an elite defense are Air Force (20th in yards against, 43rd in points against), Rutgers (86th and 60th), and Central Michigan (38th and 64th). Sparty put up 35 on Air Force, 30 on Central Michigan, and 31 on Rutgers. But there really is a huge gap between the *Elite* defenses and those three. Michigan isn't going to shut out MSU, but they'll hold them under 20. 

The question then becomes whether or not Michigan can score the 32 points per game they have been averaging since the loss to Utah. Here's what MSU's defense has been able to do:

• Western Michigan scored 24 points and threw 2 interceptions. In their two other losses (Georgia Southern and Ohio State), they averaged just 14.5 points. In WMU's two wins (Murray State and Central Michigan), they averaged 46.5 points. That WMU team is so all over the map I don't even know what to make of them
• Oregon scored 28 points. Besides their Utah game (when they only scored 20), the Ducks are averaging 50.3 points per game. That MSU-Oregon-Utah-Michigan connection has to mean something, and here I think it means the game should stay in the 20s?
• MSU held Air Force at 21 points, below their average of 29.8 for the rest of their games
• Central Michigan scored just 10 points, well below their average of 25.8 in the rest of their games
• Purdue stinks, but even at 1-5 they've still averaged 25.8 points per game on the season, and 21 of them came against MSU
• Rutgers has been all over the place offensively. Here are their point totals (in increasing order): 3-24-27-34-63. That 24 was last week against MSU

I think this is going to be very close to the spread. I like Michigan to win, and I think they do it by more than a touchdown. If you have a tease bag started already (like maybe with FSU?), throw the Wolverines in. If you're betting games on their own, I'm in on Michigan -7. 

Week 7 College Football Preview: The Noon Games

(If you missed the Louisville-Florida State preview, it's here - but I like FSU -7.)

Here are the rest of the notable 12:00 games:

West Virginia @ Baylor (-21.5)
WVU has been in a freefall, losing by 20 at Oklahoma and by 7 at home to Oklahoma State. Baylor scores 60+ points per game. I like Baylor, I wish it was inside three touchdowns, but I don't want to tease with this because it's either going to be a 30 point blowout or a single-digit nailbiter. It's tough to argue with Baylor's offense though, so I like the Bears -21.5.

Purdue @ Wisconsin (-23.5)
When you Google both of these teams, the first ESPN result is the link to the basketball page. That's a fun fact, and here's another: except for their 3 point loss at Michigan State, Purdue lost has lost their games against Big 5 opponents by 27 (Virginia Tech) and 28 (Minnesota) - and both of those games were at home. I'm almost wondering if the Boilermakers are a frisky road team because they have a home crowd that doesn't care? Couple that with Wisconsin's 1-1 B1G record (lost by 4 at home to Iowa and won by 2 at Nebraska), and I'm in on Purdue +23.5.

Ole Miss (-11) @ Memphis
Memphis is 5-0 against a bunch of crap teams. Ole Miss is 5-1 (2-1 in the SEC). In Ole Miss' only loss, Florida held them to 1 passing touchdown, 259 passing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns, and just 69 rushing yards (nice). For the season, Chad Kelly averages 310.3 yards and 2.3 touchdowns per game (with almost 1 interception per game). Their ground game averages 188.3 yards and 2.8 touchdowns per game. The issue with trying to analyze Ole Miss is they combined for 201 points (25 offensive touchdowns) against UT-Martin, Fresno State, and New Mexico State. Memphis probably won't win, but I'd like to mix this into the teaser bag to get it under a touchdown.

Iowa (-2) @ Northwestern
The friskiest team in the Big Ten getting points at home? I'm in!

Texas Tech (-32.5) @ Kansas
Kansas is another team that has the basketball page show up before the football page, and wow is it easy to see why. 0-5. Lost to South Dakota State. Lost by 32 to Memphis at home. Lost by 13 to Rutgers and by 25 to Iowa State. Coming off a 59 point loss at home to Baylor in which they only managed to score a touchdown on their first drive and go scoreless on their next thirteen. Texas Tech has been held under 50 twice this year (both times they scored 35 points) - at Arkansas, which they won, and at home to Baylor, which they lost because Baylor is Baylor. The Red Raiders beat Iowa State 66-31 last week, so transitive property tells us they should beat Kansas by 50. One of our first rules was Thirty Points Is A Lot, but I'm in on Texas Tech -32.5.

Week 7 College Football Preview: Louisville @ Florida State

Last night, we were considering a parlay of Auburn -1.5, Atlanta -4, and the Mets moneyline. We decided not to bet it because parlays are stupid. We thought it would be smarter to just bet them separately. We got Atlanta into Bovada. Then their system froze or crashed or something and we couldn't place Auburn, and we kind of just forgot about the Mets.

Well Atlanta lost so we lost that money. Auburn covered and the Mets won, and we got dick to show for it.

Fucking great!

Lots of big games this weekend, let's break down some notable ones:

Louisville @ Florida State (-7.5), 12:00

What Louisville does well: Rushing. Like a lot of college teams, the Cards rely more on the run than they do on the pass. They've run for 11 touchdowns and thrown for just 5 (with 7 interceptions). They ran for 3 touchdowns when they beat Auburn, 2 when they lost to Houston, 1 when they lost to Clemson, and 1 when they beat NC State.

On the other side of the rushing game, Louisville's run defense is solid when it counts. They held Auburn to 2 touchdowns on 41 attempts, Houston to 0 touchdowns on 57 (!!) attempts, Clemson to 0 touchdowns on 40 attempts, and NC State to 1 touchdown on 30 attempts.

The Cards also defend against the pass moderately well. They had 3 interceptions against Auburn and 2 against Clemson, and they picked off Houston's Greg Ward once even though he pretty much torched them.

Florida State wants to run the ball, and there is really no denying it. They've gone for over 1000 yards through their first five games, led by Dark Horse Heisman Candidate Dalvin Cook Who Was Found Not Guilty For Allegedly Punching That Woman Outside Of That Bar and his 792 yards. Cook averages 9.0 yards per carry and has already score 8 touchdowns.

Before last week against NC State, Louisville had been giving up 4-5 yards per carry (and about a yard more than that to "feature backs"). Last week they held NC State's "feature back" Matthew Dayes to 68 yards on 19 attempts (3.6 yards per carry). Dayes isn't an elite back, but he has 10 touchdowns on the year - granted, it's against subpar competition.

Louisville isn't going to be able to contain Dalvin. They make keep him under 100 yards (doubtful), and they might even keep him out of the endzone (even more doubtful), but even if they do they will have to commit too much manpower and Everett Golson will add to his perfect 8 touchdown-0 interception stat line for the season. Tease if you have to because they're definitely winning, but I like FSU -7 (-120, buying the half a point).

Monday Night Football Preview: Steelers @ Chargers

We split our college picks from Friday's post. It was really nice to actually win a bet, because it had been like a week since we saw black. We followed it up with a solid NFL Sunday where we hit on the Eagles, Cardinals, Patriots and a Bills/Falcons teaser.

Do you smell that? It's momentum! We're rolling! Let's go to Steelers-Chargers tonight:

Game Lines: Chargers -4, Over/Under 46, Total Touchdowns Over/Under 5.5

The Chargers want to pass the ball, and they do so more than anyone in the league except the Patriots. The Steelers want to run the ball, but they are in the middle of the pack in terms of rush yards per game (Note: things done changed since Le'Veon Bell came back from his martyrdom and Ben Roethlisberger got hurt). Pittsburgh has a pretty much average pass defense. San Diego has a bad (but not quite atrocious) run defense. Pittsburgh is near the top of the league in points against (18.8). San Diego is near the bottom (27.5).

The Chargers are favored here because, in today's NFL, passing is more important than rushing. Phil Rivers is better than Michael Vick, and that means more than Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown being better than anyone on the Chargers.

Chargers -4 (-105)
Over 46 (-115)
I like San Diego tonight in a shootout and I like the over. I'm not going to bet the total touchdowns prop, but I always think it's interesting to see how many TDs are going to be split between the skill players. Under 5.5 pays -145, so the line is really more like Over/Under 5 touchdowns.

Here's who I think is getting those five touchdowns:

Le'Veon Bell (-175)
There is never any value in betting the star running back, but it's free money.

DeAngelo Williams (+450)
The value comes in the form of Bell's backup, who has scored 3 touchdowns this year that all came against San Francisco before Bell came back. Because you can run against the Chargers, it's not unreasonable to think that someone other than Bell gets in the end zone.

Antonio Brown (Even)
Duh.

Darrius Heyward-Bey (+200)
DHB has turned into a sneaky good red zone target. He scored touchdowns against San Francisco and Baltimore.

Melvin Gordon (Even)
He has 53.3% of the team's carries this year, and he's averaging 4.1 yards per carry. He has 4 runs of 20+ yards. Somehow he's been held to zero touchdowns, and I think that's gotta change sometime.

Keenan Allen (-115)
He is Rivers' favorite target and he has scored 3 touchdowns in the past 2 weeks.

Antonio Gates (+125)
Gates is back! He's fresh off the steroids, so I almost don't want to bet on him to score because he's probably all flabby now. But it's Antonio Gates and I'm sure Phil will be happy to have him back in the red zone.

Week 6 College Football Preview

This is not a great time for us, guys. Our last eight bets (going back to last weekend) are losses. We went 0-4 last night because Matt Hasselbeck turned out to be good, the two players with the most touchdowns for each team turned out to be bad, and there was a 42-yard touchdown as the first half expired to blow our "Longest Touchdown Under 40.5 Yards" play.

We need to turn this ship around. And we aren't going to do that by betting the way we have been betting. I'm going to go #guru on this, the way I normally do for college basketball. I'm looking at strengths and weaknesses. And god damnit, we're going to win a fucking bet!

The SEC's Best Rushing Teams

• LSU (334.0 yards per game, 75.4% of offensive plays)
• Georgia (244.8, 61.2%)
• Tennessee (225.0, 63.5%)
• Arkansas (204.0, 58.3%)
• Alabama (199.8, 52.8%)
• South Carolina (190.2, 60.1%)
• Auburn (190.0, 66.0%)
• Texas A&M (188.0, 54.1%)
• Ole Miss (173.0, 49.7%)
• Vanderbilt (157.0, 50.4%)
• Mississippi State (155.0, 44.1%)
• Florida (140.6, 53.1%)
• Kentucky (135.0, 53.4%)
• Missouri (116.2, 51.8%)

The SEC's Best Passing Teams

• Ole Miss (327.4 yards per game, 50.3% of offensive plays)
• Texas A&M (292.4, 45.9%)
• Mississippi State (284.8, 55.9%)
• Arkansas (272.0, 41.7%)
• Vanderbilt (255.4, 49.6%)
• Florida (253.6, 46.9%)
• Alabama (244.0, 47.2%)
• Kentucky (230.6, 46.6%)
• Georgia (208.0, 38.8%)
• Missouri (203.0, 48.2%)
• Tennessee (192.8, 36.5%)
• South Carolina (163.2, 39.9%)
• Auburn (153.8, 34.0%)
• LSU (95.5, 24.6%)

My first takeaway is LSU might as well not even have a quarterback. The same goes for Auburn, Tennessee, Georgia, and South Carolina. Arkansas is right on the border. 

Here are the SEC matchups this weekend:

Georgia (-3.5) @ Tennessee, 3:30

Lotttttt of rushing yards to be had here. In SEC play, Georgia beat Vandy and SC both handily, then got creamed by Alabama. That doesn't really tell us a whole lot, other than those lists I just made are utterly useless. 

I can tell you that UGA held Vandy - granted, a team not totally committed to rushing - to just 105 yards and 2.7 yards per carry. South Carolina, a team that focuses more on the run, managed to get 174 yards and 4.5 yards per carry. Alabama runs more effectively (although not necessarily more) than either of those teams, and they hit the Dawgs for 189 yards while holding Georgia to 193. 

This is pretty simple then: will Tennessee be able to hold Georgia's rushing attack in check and counter it with Jalen Hurd and Josh Dobbs? The Vols did that to Florida, though the Gators are more of a balanced attack. Arkansas ran ALL OVER Tennessee, out-rushing them 275 to 133. That didn't get reflected on the scoreboard, though, as the Hogs only won 24-20. Of their 11 total drives (not counting the end of the game), Arkansas scored just two touchdowns and two field goals. 

Four different Georgia players have combined to rush for the team's 15 touchdowns, and Malcolm Mitchell and Sonny Michel have each caught 3 of the team's 8 passing touchdowns. Greyson Lambert is one of the better quarterbacks in the SEC, and the Dawgs are going to be hungry after last week's embarrassment. I'm in. 

LSU (-15) @ South Carolina, 3:30

In conference, LSU has played Mississippi State and Auburn. That should give us a good look at how they fare against pass-heavy teams and against rush-heavy teams. They squeaked by on the road at MSU (21-19), and creamed Auburn at home (45-21), and the Tigers sit at a Kind Of Overinflated 4-0

That Auburn game is key because those blue and orange tigers are similar to South Carolina. They want to pound the ball on the ground. Auburn did that against LSU, totaling 160 yards and 4.3 yards per carry. But 65 of those yards (and the only rushing touchdown) came on one touchdown run for Jeremy Johnson, who still only averaged 3.4 yards per attempt. 

I'm penciling in the Cocks for the high teens or low twenties. Can LSU score enough to cover two touchdowns? If their games against Kentucky (3 rushing touchdowns), Georgia (4), and Mizzou (1) mean anything, it is going to be a busy day for Future Heisman Winner Leonard Fournette. Give me the Tigers on the road and let's help the Ol' Ball Coach one step closer to living on a beach. 

Arkansas @ Alabama (-16.5), 7:00

If you just look at the two lists above, this looks like it should be a lot closer than a 17 point game. It seems like half of that spread is coming from Nick Saban and Lane Kiffin being a million times better than Brent Bylsma, and the other half is coming from the players on the field. 

'Bama has played 3 legitimate top-25 teams: they beat Wisconsin by 18, lost to Ole Miss by 6, and just thrashed Georgia by 28 last week. 

Arkansas has played one team that is MAYBE as good as any of those three - Texas A&M, who beat the Hogs by 7. 

To cover this big of a spread, though, Alabama is going to have to be firing on all cylinders. Derrick Henry has 9 touchdowns so far, and he's going to need at least a pair. Jake Coker has run for 2 touchdowns and thrown for 9, but he's also thrown 4 interceptions this year. Arkansas has 3 interceptions on the year, but one came against UTEP and the other two came against Texas Tech, who have attempted 44 more passes than any SEC team (and 61 more than the Tide).

This one is going to be a game time decision. Rule number one is Never Bet On The Worse Team, so it's either Alabama or nothing. Spoiler alert: on Saturday at like 6:58, it will be Alabama. 

Florida (-5) @ Missouri, 7:30

These two have three things in common. (1) They stink. (2) They run the ball slightly more than they throw the ball. (3) They aren't particularly effective at running or throwing the ball. 

Bovada doesn't post over/under numbers until game day, but my side chick (Sportsbook.ag) has the total for this game at 39.5. Both of these teams are going to be kind of inflated coming off wins last week (Mizzou 24-10 against South Carolina and Florida 38-10 against Ole Miss), and I think this number is actually inflated too. 

I'm never a person that bets the under. I think, if your goal is to enjoy watching the game, betting the under is incredibly counterproductive. But listen, man. I made those lists. It told us that these two teams don't do anything good on offense. Courtesy of Fox Sports, I can also tell you that they are the first- and third-ranked teams in the SEC in points against per game.

Neither team is breaking twenty points, baby! Under 39.5! Catch the fever!