Monday, March 12, 2018

2018 NCAA Tournament Preview (Running Blog)

I'm just going to throw everything into buckets, and then we'll try to apply it to the actual bracket. Let's start the way I always start NCAA basketball previews.

Teams That Rely On Three Pointers
6. Davidson (41.9% of their points come from three point field goals)
13. UMBC (40.7%)
20. Villanova (39.3%)
26. Missouri (39.0%)
37. South Dakota St (37.5%)
42. Kansas (37.4%)
45. Georgia St (37.2%)
48. Creighton (37.0%)
55. Michigan (36.5%)
72. Florida (36.0%)
82. Purdue (35.4%)
84. Auburn (35.1%)
86. Nevada (35.0%)

Teams That Defend Well Against Three Pointers
2. Penn (29.7% opponent three point field goal percentage)
3. Kentucky (29.9%)
6. Virginia (30.3%)
7. Murray St (30.8%)
8. New Mexico St (30.8%)
10. Cincinnati (30.9%)
12. Nevada (31.2%)
14. NC State (31.6%)
18. Alabama (31.9%)
19. Tennessee (31.9%)
22. Providence (32.1%)
23. St. Bonaventure (32.1%)
24. Duke (32.1%)
29. Missouri (32.3%)
33. Texas A&M (32.4%)
40. Miami (32.6%)
41. Kansas (32.7%)
42. LIU Brooklyn (32.7%)
45. Villanova (32.8%)
46. Houston (32.8%)
47. Texas Tech (32.8%)
50. Syracuse (32.8%)

Some notes on that: Virginia and Kentucky are going to THROTTLE Maryland-Baltimore County and Davidson - parlay it, hammer it, lock it up. Cincinnati is probably going to beat the shit out of Georgia State too. You might be tempted to flirt with Penn against Kansas, and maybe a huge point spread would make that okay.

Teams That Rely On Free Throws To Score
9. Syracuse (24.0% of their points come from free throws)
14. Auburn (23.2%)
26. Kentucky (22.4%)
27. Lipscomb (22.3%)
28. St. Bonaventure (22.3%)
29. Arizona State (22.3%)
37. Xavier (22.2%)
39. Bucknell (22.0%)
45. Providence (21.7%)
53. Tennessee (21.4%)
56. Alabama (21.3%)
57. Montana (21.1%)
60. Texas Tech (21.1%)

Teams That Don't Allow Their Opponent Many Free Throws
1. Duke (0.171 opponent free throws attempted per offensive play)
5. Purdue (.181)
8. Creighton (.187)
11. Kansas (.188)
13. Loyola Chicago (.190)
14. Virginia (.190)
15. Xavier (.191)
17. Villanova (.192)
21. Oklahoma (.195)
23. Texas (.195)
24. North Carolina (.196)
25. Cincinnati (.196)
29. South Dakota St (.199)
34. Clemson (.202)
45. Miami (.209)

Notes: UNC should handle Lipscomb pretty easily.

The Tuesday Play-In Games

*Please note that rankings are out of the 351 Division 1 teams, via TeamRankings.com

Long Island vs. Radford (-4.5)

LIU Brooklyn Blackbirds

  • 76.7 points for (77th), 76.8 points against (275th)
  • Pace: 121.3 total, 58.4 FGA for (156th), 62.9 FGA against (331st)
  • For: 52.3 2FG% (75th), 34.8 3FG% (177th), 22.5 FTA/game (47th)
  • Against: 50.4 2FG% (198th), 32.7 3FG% (42nd),  20.2 FTA/game (220th)
  • 28.2% offensive rebounding (127th), 72.5% defensive rebounding (209th)
  • 5.0% blocks (229th)
  • Leading scorers: G Joel Hernandez (20.9 pts, 46.5 FG%, 38.0 3FG% on 4.4 attempts/game, 66.5 FT% on 6.5 attempts/game); G Raiquan Clark (17.4 pts, 55.7 FG%, 22.4 3FG% on 0.8 attempts/game, 75.2 FT% on 6.9 attempts/game)

Radford Highlanders

  • 66.9 points for (303rd), 64.9 points against (18th)
  • Pace: 107.6 total, 54.8 FGA for (299th), 52.8 FGA against (17th)
  • For: 47.3% 2FG (227th), 35.1% 3FG (166th), 17.3 FTA/game (274th)
  • Against: 48.4% 2FG (110th), 34.2% 3FG (127th), 16.6 FTA/game (52nd)
  • 30.5% offensive rebounding (64th), 73.9% defensive rebounding (149th)
  • 5.5% blocks (190th)
  • Leading scorers: F Ed Polite (13.5 pts, 48.5 FG%, 28.6 3FG% on 2.3 attempts/game, 72.0 FT% on 4.8 attempts per game); G Carlik Jones (11.8 pts, 41.8 FG%, 31.9 3FG% on 3.3 attempts/game, 77.0 FT% on 3.6 attempts/game)

The most obvious discrepancy is the pace. Radford wants to play painfully slow, and LIU wants to play a more average kind of game. Even if LIU were to turn up the pace a bit, Radford's decent advantage on the glass is a definite point in their favor. Where LIU can bridge the gap is their decided shooting advantage, primarily in terms of two-point completion percentage and free throw attempts. However, that LIU FTA/game stat is kind of misleading because it's impacted by pace. If you adjust it to FTA/FGA, LIU's 0.385 is around the nationwide average, but Radford's defense only allows 0.314 FTA/FGA. Bovada presently has the over/under set at a measly 139 points, which means they think it'll be more Radford's style of game. I tend to agree, and I like Radford -4 or -4.5. At the very least, throw it in your teaser bag.

St. Bonaventure vs. UCLA (-3.5)

St. Bonaventure Bonnies
  • 77.9 points for (59th), 71.0 points against (130th)
  • Pace: 114.1 total, 57.8 FGA for (180th), 56.3 FGA against (106th)
  • For: 48.6 2FG% (224th), 39.8 3FG% (19th), 0.399 FTA/FGA (37th)
  • Against: 49.6 2FG% (162nd), 32.1% 3FG (23rd), 0.393 FTA/FGA (294th)
  • 29.0% offensive rebounding (109th), 73.7% defensive rebounding (161st)
  • 6.4% blocks (112th)
  • Leading scorers: G Jaylen Adams (19.8 pts, 45.4 FG%, 45.7 3FG% on 6.3 attempts/game, 85.6 FT% on 6.4 attempts/game; G Matt Mobley (18.5 pts, 42.7 FG%, 38.3 3FG% on 8.3 attempts/game, 86.1 FT% on 4.7 attempts/game)
UCLA Bruins
  • 81.9 points for (22nd), 76.3 points against (259th)
  • Pace: 125.3 total, 61.4 FGA for (39th), 63.9 FGA against (339th)
  • For: 51.3 2FG% (122nd), 38.3 3FG% (42nd), 0.359 FTA/FGA (107th)
  • Against: 47.4 2FG% (72nd), 34.9 3FG% (169th), 0.295 FTA/FGA (80th)
  • 27.9% offensive rebounding (139th), 74.6% defensive rebounding (111th)
  • 6.1% blocks (130th)
  • Leading scorer: G Aaron Holiday (20.3 pts, 46.3 FG%, 43.3 3FG% on 6.1 attempts/game, 82.6 FT% on 5.9 attempts/game)
Similar to the early game, this one features two teams who differ in pace by more than ten total possessions per game. Even considering that UCLA's Pac-12 schedule is generally more difficult than St. Bona's A10 schedule, I have a hard time picking against Adams and Mobley. They're efficient with their shots and they are both among the nation's best at the free throw line, which will help as the game comes down to the wire.

The primary worry I would have with that, though, is UCLA's 7-footer, Thomas Welsh. He takes 10.5 shots a game (though 3.4 are from three-point range) and averages 10.7 rebounds. The Bonnies' tallest players are 6'10" Amadi Ikpeze (14.2 mins, 4.7 pts, 3.1 rebs, 0.5 blks) and 6'8" Josh Ayeni (14.6 mins, 5.3 pts, 2.8 rebs, 0.1 blks). I would bank on the Bruins running a lot of their offense through Welsh, even though he's only averaged 1.4 assists per game this season.

To really fall off a cliff, here's who St. Bonaventure has faced this year with a similar profile to Welsh:

  • UCLA's Welsh (for reference): 7'0", avg 13.0 pts/10.7 rebs/0.9 blks
  • Davidson's Peyton Aldridge: 6'8", avg 21.5 pts/7.8 rebs/0.6 blks, had lines of 25/9/0, then 45/12/2, then 24/7/0 in his three games against St. Bonaventure this year
  • Richmond's Grant Golden: 6'10", avg 15.6 pts/6.7 rebs/1.2 blks, put up 24/6/1 and 9/9/0 in his two games
  • SLU's Hasahn French: 6'7", avg 9.3 pts/7.1 rebs/1.8 blks, totaled 9/5/2 and 6/16/3 in his two games
  • VCU's Justin Tillman: 6'8", avg 18.9 pts/9.9 rebs/1.0 blks, finished with 20/10/2
  • URI's Cyril Langevine: 6'8", avg 5.9 pts/5.7 rebs/1.2 blks, finished with 2/9/2 and 10/10/3
  • SJU's Pierfrancesco Oliva: 6'8", avg 6.6 pts/6.7 rebs/0.7 blks, totaled 9/8/2 and 7/7/1
  • Cuse's Oshae Brissett: 6'8", avg 14.7 pts/8.8 rebs/0/7 blks, finished with 15/13/0
  • UB's Nick Perkins: 6'9", avg 16.6 pts/6.2 rebs/0.7 blks, put up 21/8/1
What does that tell us? Well, for starters, St. Bonaventure won 10 of the 14 games against the players listed above (the losses were to SJU once, tournament-bound URI once, and tournament-bound Davidson twice). I tend to lean toward discounting Davidson and Aldridge because he's undoubtedly their best player, whereas Welsh is undoubtedly a role player for UCLA. Everyone else seems to have put up numbers in line with their season averages (both in terms of points and rebounds), and the Bonnies won the vast majority of those games. My worry about Welsh is basically mitigated - I don't know how they do it, but St. Bonaventure has been able to overcome their size disadvantage. Especially considering that Bovada has the total at 155 points (right in their usual range), I like the Bonnies. 



points for, points against
Pace: total, FGA for, FGA against
For: 2FG%, 3FG%, FTA/FGA
Against: 2FG%, 3FG%, FTA/FGA
offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding
blocks
Leading scorer