Flyers Top 25 Under 25 - Summer 2018 Edition

Before I jump in to my current ranking, here is how I ranked the boys last Winter:

1. Ivan Provorov
2. Shayne Gostisbehere
3. Nolan Patrick
4. Travis Konecny
5. Scott Laughton
6. Oskar Lindblom
7. Morgan Frost
8. Wade Allison
9. Carter Hart
10. Travis Sanheim
11. Phil Myers
12. Robert Hagg
13. Sam Morin
14. Danick Martel
15. Mike Vecchione
16. Taylor Leier
17. Mikhail Vorobyev
18. German Rubtsov
19. Nicolas Aube-Kubel
20. Tanner Laczynski
21. Anthony Stolarz
22. Felix Sandstrom
23. Mark Friedman
24. Maksim Sushko
25. Isaac Ratcliffe
Honorable Mention (in order from 26-33)
Tyrell Goulbourne
Radel Fazleev
Connor Bunnaman
Matt Strome
David Kase
Pascal Laberge
Cooper Marody
Kirill Ustimenko

And an honorable mention that I feel is notable:

• Ollie Lycksell - Good try BSH, that's a fake name.

Turns out Ollie Lycksell actually spells his first name 'Olle' AND he's invited to Sweden's World Juniors camp, so maybe he was a bit of a miss for me. Beyond him, there are some exciting new additions to the group (the only real subtractions being Gostisbehere and Vecchione) and some players that have made significant strides forward in the past six months. 

That's going to be a challenge - there are 25 spots for 34 prospects plus a draft haul that included two first round picks. Here's how I'm ranking the lads.

1. Ivan Provorov
2. Nolan Patrick
3. Travis Konecny

My top four has not changed, but Gostisbehere graduated. Shutdown defenseman, then second-line center, then top-six winger. We know they're all going to be in the organization for a decade, and at this point I think the only question we have about potential is with Patrick. But it's a good question, as in 'how high can his ceiling go?'

4. Scott Laughton

5. Travis Sanheim
6. Oskar Lindblom

7. Robert Hagg

These guys should all be NHL regulars this year. I think Laughton's work on the penalty kill is going to be underratedly important to the team's success this year, and I think Lindblom might even be joining him in that department. Robert Hagg is a fine player, but the upside of Sanheim (if he can hit that upside, with Hagg or MacDonald or Gudas or whomever) means he could potentially take the leap to the group above this one. 

8. Carter Hart

I'm penciling him in here between the sure-thing NHLers and the could-be NHLers even though he's probably not an NHLer this year. Simply put, the pressure of being the Flyers' future franchise goalie is second only to being the goalie for Team Canada. Hart's .930 save percentage in last year's World Juniors (they won gold) tells you all you need to know about his mental makeup. 

9. Morgan Frost

10. Philippe Myers

11. Sam Morin

God I hope these three make the big club this year. Myers probably has the best shot out of camp (since Morin is injured and Frost is still just a boy), but I rank Frost slightly ahead of him because third center (especially one of the playmaking variety instead of the checking variety) is more important than fourth or fifth defenseman. As for Sammy, I love him and I hope he jumps into the lineup after he rehabs. He's exactly what you want on your third pair for a playoff run. 

12. Felix Sandstrom

Perhaps I'm putting too much stock in this year's development camp, but all the reports that I saw showed Sandstrom as Hart's peer. They have decidedly different styles - Hart's the calming presence who specializes in positioning, Sandstrom the freak athlete-slash-contortionist - but they will eventually be a fearsome tandem. 

13. Wade Allison

14. Isaac Ratcliffe

15. Joel Farabee

None of them will sniff the NHL this year. Ratcliffe is probably the only one who will even see any AHL time. But these three represent the potential 'goal-scoring wingers' of the future. We have James van Riemsdyk and Konecny (and I guess Claude Giroux?) for now, but the thought one one day adding these three to the top nine is making my mouth water. 

16. Mikhail Vorobyev

17. Nicolas Aube-Kubel

18. Danick Martel

19. Taylor Leier

I think two of these four are going to make the Flyers out of camp. They're the NHL-AHL 'tweeners' who could probably swim if we threw them into the deep end. But that's not how Ron Hextall operates, so we'll settle with the nugget that Danick Martel led the Flyers in Shot Attempts Per Sixty Minutes last season. 

20. Maksim Sushko
21. Tanner Laczynski

22. Jay O'Brien
23. Connor Bunnaman

24. Jack St. Ivany
25. Adam Ginning

This is my ranking, so I rounded out my top 25 with the players who I'm probably higher on than most. Whether it's stories I've read or things I've seen in whatever camp or tournament I might have watched, I hope this last group all finds success on their path to the orange and black. 

Now, I'll attempt to defend the guys I left out:

• German Rubtsov - Yes, he was a first round pick. But how long can he underachieve before we start to remove him from our plans? This year should be big for him, as Eliteprospects shows him making the jump to play for the Phantoms. Maybe the burden of having to try to score 100 points will allow him to simplify his game and focus on being a sound 200-foot player. 
• Anthony Stolarz - It's kind of like the Rubtsov situation, though to be fair to Stolarz injuries have played a role. I think he absolutely has the chops to be an NHL goalie, but he's been in the Flyers' system for like a decade and nothing has really come of it. The battle between him and Alex Lyon (who is 25 and therefore ineligible for this list) should be a doozy this season. 
• Mark Friedman - He's a dog, and he absolutely could have snuck into that last group of four because he plays with so much heart all the time. I guess an AHL career with the potential for an NHL call-up isn't a bad way to go. 
• Tyrell Goulbourne - We're probably done with him on the big club. 
• Radel Fazleev - I used to think of him and Vorobyev as a pair, but last year Vorobyev seemed to take a huge step forward while Fazleev stayed pretty steady. 
• Matt Strome - Oh man, just wait til he learns how to skate. Then you're all in trouble!
• David Kase - He was a victim of the depth of this prospect pool. He's a solid player but nobody really seems to be all that high on him. 
• Pascal Laberge - God I hope he has a bounceback year with the Phantoms this year. Poor guy's brain is heartbreakingly fucked up from that cheap shot in the World Juniors a few years ago. 
• Kirill Ustimenko - The Rinaldo pick is actually maybe a pretty good goalie?
• Reece Wilcox - I know he re-signed with the Phantoms, but I think that's probably the end of the road for him. I don't see a way for him to leapfrog the big names ahead of him. 
• Olle Lycksell - Like I said above, he's hopefully going to be playing in the World Juniors this year, which would be a great way for him to build some hype. 
• Cole Bardreau - Do you think they'll give him a Dale Weise contract when Dale Weise's contract expires?
• Wyatte Wylie - I'll quote a Flyers scout: "there's nothing really flashy but he's a pretty effective guy"- he also has a fucking sweet name. 

Nikita Kucherov Signed An Extension With The Lightning

The big news in the hockey world today (so far) is Nikita Kucherov's extension with the Tampa Bay Lightning. Homeboy got PAID:

KUUUUUUUUUCH!!!

We have signed Nikita Kucherov to an eight-year contract extension worth an average of $9.5 million.

📝: https://t.co/mteggHnm8D pic.twitter.com/id4aAFZIWu

— Tampa Bay Lightning (@TBLightning) July 10, 2018

I was curious about the contract specifics, because you know law school and whatnot, so I headed on over to the best website in the world, CapFriendly.  Kucherov's teammate and linemate, Steven Stamkos, famously accepted his contract extension two summers ago with the following construction:

• $1 million per year in annual salary, split between the 180 total days in the league year
• $7.5 million per year in a signing bonus, paid at the start of the season

We'll see if Kucherov opts for a similar structure, and to be honest that will probably be announced before I'm done writing this. 

But why set up a contract like this? I think there are two reasons:

1. Getting a check for $7.5 million (or $8.5 million in Kucherov's case) has to be the greatest fucking feeling in the history of the world. These guys are living their childhood dreams, playing the sport they love every day, and they get to cash a check big enough to give Jose Gaspar a heart attack. 
2. Taxes

Florida, of course, does not have a state income tax. So any money that Kucherov 'earns' in Florida would only be subject to federal taxes. 

Michael McCann broke this down in a similar fashion for recent-free-agent-but-current-Toronto-Maple-Leaf John Tavares here. The short version is Tavares cost himself almost $10 million over the life of his contract by signing in Toronto (Canada/socialist) instead of Florida (no state income tax/no laws). 

But that's really just for the salary component of the contract. There is another piece of the pie that would lead Stamkos (and I'm betting Kucherov too) to see a signing-bonus-heavy contract. Any money that he 'earns' in other states (read: road games) is subject to those states' taxes under what's commonly referred to as the Jock Tax. 

Of the 180-day NHL season, each team plays (checks Google) 41 road games in the regular season and 3 road games in the preseason. For Tampa this season, that breaks down like this (with state/city tax rates):

*Please note that I reached this point and realized that I don't really understand Jock Tax rates. I think it's just a percentage of the player's income that is taxable in that state/city, so we can just plug the rates from my list below in as tax that would have to be paid in addition to his US Federal taxes. Each game day that the player's team has in the 'away' state will be taxed at the following rates:

• Florida (3x) - 0%
• Montreal (2x) - 25.75%
• Ottawa (2x) - 13.16%
• Buffalo (2x) - 8.8%
• Detroit (2x) - 6.65%
• Boston (2x) - 5.1%
• Toronto (2x) - 13.16%
• Philadelphia (2x) - 6.99%
• NY Rangers (2x) - 12.7%
• Carolina (2x) - 5.49%
• Nashville (2x) - 0.0%
• Minnesota - 9.85%
• Chicago - 4.95%
• Colorado - 4.63%
• Las Vegas - 0.0%
• Arizona - 4.54%
• Pittsburgh - 4.07%
• New Jersey - 8.97%
• Winnipeg - 17.4%
• Vancouver - 14.7%
• Calgary - 15%
• Edmonton - 15%
• Anaheim - 13.3%
• Los Angeles - 13.3%
• San Jose - 13.3% 
• NY Islanders - 12.7%
• Columbus - 7.63%
• Washington - 8.85%
• St. Louis - 7.0%

Now, if you multiply those tax rates by 1/180th of Kucherov's two potential 'salary numbers' ($1 million, or $5,556 per league day, and $8.5 million, or $47,222 per league day), here's what you get. 

• $1m salary: additional $20,599 (2.1%) paid in jock taxes
• $8.5m salary: additional $175,095 (2.1%) paid in jock taxes

As it turns out, it's really just a drop in the bucket either way. Obviously, to the average person, that difference of $150k would be a lot, but when your yearly earnings are almost $10 million who the hell cares. That's like me paying an extra (pulls out calculator) thousand bucks a year. Would I prefer to have that money in my pocket? Obviously. Am I going to starve to death without it? Maybe but I'll probably live. 

This exercise proved to be mostly futile, except I now have state/local tax rates for every NHL team. It really sheds a light on how much the variation in tax rates across the continent benefit teams who play their home games (and practices, and everything else) in tax havens. Yeah, Kucherov is going to get dinged for almost half a day's pay for his two trips to Montreal. But he's also not going to get dinged at all for like a hundred and forty days of the season. Jock Tax - not actually that big of a deal. It's much better to play your home games in a tax-free zone, and maybe that's why the Lightning are able to keep their talent all locked up together. 

Well, because it's the NHL and nothing really makes sense, the Florida Panthers play three hours away from Tampa with the same tax laws and their organization is a god damn mess. Eat at Arby's. 

Flyers 2018-19 Lineup, Volume 2

Well folks, Volume 1 of this season's lineup lasted for an entire week and a half. Perhaps I got started too soon and I should have waited for free agency to at least start, but honestly I didn't expect Ron Hextall to make a splash like he did. I was lured to sleep by three summers of Boyd Gordon and Dale Weise, and that's on me. I'm sorry.

BUT we have a new big strong boy in the lineup, and his name is Former Flyer James van Riemsdyk. We'll start there, because the Flyers now have an absolute no-brainer of a first line.

Giroux-Couturier-van Riemsdyk

Ignore handedness. If your reaction to this line is "well JVR usually plays left wing" then you are the worst. We're keeping our dynamic duo together and adding the BIG STRONG HARD-HITTING GOAL-SCORING WINGER that Sam Carchidi has been tweeting about with porn GIFs for like two years. Now we just need a nickname, but the only things I can think of right now are Jean-Claude Van Dam references. More like Sean Claude Van Daaaamn, am I right?

Konecny-Patrick-Voracek

I'm literally drooling.

But after the top six, it gets a little more like Yahtzee. Here's who we have left (in order of cap hit):

• Wingers: Lehtera, Simmonds, Weise, Raffl, Lindblom, Leier, Aube-Kubel
• Centers: Laughton, Weal, Vorobyev, Vecchione, Frost

Obviously we're pulling two guys from the pool of centers and throwing the rest into the pool of wingers.  You can mix that up five thousand different ways, but I'm tempted to start with something we know is good and fun.

The-Honey-Bees
(Leier-Laughton-Raffl)

We know they can skate with any line in the league, and they flashed some chemistry in the offensive zone. One of my criticisms of Hakstol last season was his reliance on the phrase "consistent in all three zones" combined with his abandonment of this line that was.. consistent in all three zones. Let's bring back the Honey Bees 2k18.

Here's where it really gets tough for me. A Lindblom-Weal-Simmonds line is the best way to get NHL experience on the third line, but at some point we're going to have to get Nic Aube-Kubel, Misha Vorobyev, Mike Vecchione, and Morgan Frost in the lineup.

Lindblom-Weal-Simmonds 

Ron preaches patience, though, and I think we'll get that as the third line to start the season. Based on Charlie O'Connor's tweets it seems like Hextall likes Weal at center, which means we'll get another year of slow cooking for Vorobyev and Frost. And Mike Vecchione, the most unlucky player in the NHL, will continue to have his plans shattered by the lottery that netted the Flyers Nolan Patrick.

On the back end of the lineup, the big news is Brandon Manning signed with the Blackhawks so we can officially shut the door on him as a Flyer. We can also shut the door on Dougie Hamilton, as he's a Carolina Hurricane and presumably no longer on the trading block. Here's how I'd fill out the defense:

Provorov-Gostisbehere

Old reliable.

Sanheim-Hagg

I like the potential for Sanheim's dynamic game paired with Hagg's steady physical presense.

MacDonald-Myers

I mean obviously that last spot on the right side is going to be Gudas but a kid can dream.