tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-88695441885521610212024-02-18T22:10:29.537-05:00Bullets Blog#cantdodgethebullets Podcast URL: http://bit.ly/KPfuQZChris Talonehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14173139370655536506noreply@blogger.comBlogger535125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8869544188552161021.post-48522553626874387752021-08-17T11:17:00.005-04:002021-08-17T11:17:55.687-04:00"Me, Karren, Delia, and Posh Spice" - Investigating the Ted Lasso Quote About Women in the English Premier League<p>Quick breaking news: Ted Lasso fucking rocks. It's an elite show, and it's honestly worth an Apple+ subscription (if only for a month). It'll give you the whole spectrum of emotions in a way that I've never experienced in a show that holds itself out to be a comedy. It's wonderful, and I'm excited to see where they go with the show. As of my writing this, I have one episode left of the first season. </p><p>That Ted Lasso emotional spectrum touches on workplace issues, sexism, relationship troubles, personal development, and everything in between. This post is going to focus on a narrow subsection of sexism. In Season 1 Episode 9, Rebecca Welton (the owner of the club at the center of the show, if you are unfamiliar) briefly mentions the lack of women in prominent roles in top-tier English football. She says, "There's, like, four of us: me, Karen, Delia, and Posh Spice." When she said it, I had no idea how these women fit into the bigger picture of English football. So I thought we'd jump into a deep dive to learn something. </p><p>Rebecca is a fictional character, and I'm not really interested in learning about her backstory other than what they I gather by watching the actual show. As for the other three, though, I wanted to learn more about these women, their relationships to the EPL, and how they got involved in top-tier football. </p><p>I think Posh Spice, alternatively known as Victoria Adams Beckham, is going to receive a similarly brief summary. Unless I'm mistaken, I think her primary relationship to English football is the fact that her husband had a 20-year football playing career that included twelve seasons at Manchester United. If I'm missing something here, please drop a comment below. </p><p>When I was trying to uncover who "Karen" was, some Google searching led me to think that it was referring to Karen Carney, "an English sports journalist and former professional footballer" presently employed by Sky Sports. I'm probably oversimplifying the comparison here, but it seems like Rebecca could have Americanized this quote by replacing Karen with the host of NBC's soccer coverage, Rebecca Lowe. </p><p>Carney, to her credit, had a career that was not quite as long as David Beckham's but saw her appear for Birmingham City FC, Arsenal, Chelsea, and the English national team. She hails from the West Midlands, and Birmingham City seems to have been her home club (she joined them when she was eleven years old). Between her professional career, her national team career, and her work in broadcasting, she was appointed the honor of MBE in 2017. </p><p>If I can peel back the curtain and be honest, I'm a little sad to have learned that Posh Spice and Karen Carney do not own clubs in real life the way Rebecca Welton owns one on Apple+. </p><p>Delia Smith, however, is "famous for her role as joint majority shareholder at Norwich City FC." If I can read through the British-American language differences, I believe she dropped out of school in London at age sixteen to become a hairdresser and then a waitress and a chef. She moved into a food writing position at a British magazine, and then married the editor of the magazine. That man was Michael Wynn-Jones, who will appear more in the next paragraph. From the magazine, Smith jumped to an impressive career that spanned television, cookbooks, and supermarket commercials. </p><p>It's obviously impossible for me to know for sure, but I get the sense that Smith's involvement with Norwich is at least partially a product of her involvement with her husband. He went from running that aforementioned magazine to owning a publishing company, and he sold that company for the equivalent of $13.4 million today. Wynn-Jones and Smith have owned Norwich since 1997, and by all accounts they are as passionate as a fan base could ever want its owners to be. Who among us wouldn't want their owner to drunkenly grab a stadium microphone and shout "A message for the best football supporters in the world: we need a 12th man here. Where are you? Where are you? Let's be 'avin' you! Come on!" </p><p>It's also worth noting that Wynn-Jones and Smith are likely the least wealthy EPL owners, which to me makes them worthy of knowing. They're richer than I'll ever be, sure, but they aren't "live on their own private cruise ship" rich like Roman Abramovich or Sheikh Mansour.</p><p>And, to wrap this up, I'll give you an M. Night Shyamalan twist: the "Karen" that Rebecca mentioned was actually probably "Karren" as in Karren Brady, the "British business executive and television personality" who was the managing director for Birmingham City FC and is now the vice-chairman of West Ham FC. She's fucking awesome. Her complete name is The Right Honorable Baroness Karren Rita Brady, CBE. Brady's CBE is is two steps above Karen Carney's MBE, although the two honors are for different types of achievements. </p><p>Karren's backstory is complicated for me, because I don't know whether I should be in awe of her achievements or be cynical about them. She was born in London to rich parents, but those parents were Irish and Italian immigrants. She attended day schools and boarding schools that I presume were restricted to students from well-off families, but she entered the workforce instead of continuing on to one of the elite English universities. She apparently had a knack for advertising sales (which I especially love), but her first big client was a publishing company affiliated with her father. I'll be positive and focus on the bravery that must have been required for a young woman to dive headfirst into the male-dominated field of English football. </p><p>As the story goes, Karren saw a news story about Birmingham City FC being in receivership (that's British speak for bankruptcy, shoutout to Force India) and convinced her then-boss to buy it and put her in charge. He did, and at age 23 she became managing director of a Premier League team that traced its history all the way back to 1875. Birmingham bounced between the Premier League and the Championship (one level below) during Karren's tenure, and she moved to West Ham in 2010. </p><p>West Ham, like Birmingham City, has a long history of football competition (West Ham began in 1895). The club have competed in the Premier League in ten of the eleven seasons since Karren joined (including the current season). They've qualified for the Europa League twice in that time, and their current roster includes household names like Yarmolenko, Souček, Cresswell, and Fabianski. It would be fairly stunning if West Ham were relegated from the Premier League anytime in the near future, which makes Karren's tenure an unquestionable success. </p><p>I'm going to close this post by just totally ripping off a paragraph from Wikipedia, because I think it summarizes the whole point that I wanted to research this post. Karren Brady is amazing:</p><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0 0 0 40px; padding: 0px;"><p style="text-align: left;">Brady has long been renowned for championing the cause of women in business. She has repeatedly called upon her fellow female professionals to help those trying to make their way in the business world. She explained in this Guardian column: <b>“Any board executive can forget just how many people helped them get where they are. Those women who have got to the top need actively to ensure there is a pipeline of younger women, whether by networking or mentoring, who in turn is encouraging those below them. Women in the boardroom must not forget how many challenges and difficulties we have overcome, and we should share our coping str<span style="font-family: times;">ategies."</span></b><span style="font-family: times;"> </span> </p></blockquote><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0 0 0 40px; padding: 0px;"><p style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-family: times;">“It </span>is critical to create opportunities to identify talented women in business, then support them to develop their confidence to aim for the boardroom. We need to look outside the corporate mainstream, at female entrepreneurs and self-employed businesswomen, who can inject different insights and diversity to any board.”</b> </p></blockquote><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0 0 0 40px; padding: 0px;"><p style="text-align: left;">Brady famously told the Independent: <b>"If you don't have a woman on your board you should write to your shareholders and explain why. Tell us how many women you've interviewed and what skills they've been lacking, because that will give us some basis to teach the new generation of women in business."</b> Brady was appointed Commander of the Order of the British Empire (CBE) in the 2014 New Year Honours for services to entrepreneurship and women in business.</p></blockquote>Jayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13632002302783356696noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8869544188552161021.post-1981923727501071292018-07-17T10:39:00.002-04:002018-07-17T10:48:21.032-04:00Flyers Top 25 Under 25 - Summer 2018 EditionBefore I jump in to my current ranking, here is how I ranked the boys last Winter:<br />
<br />
1. Ivan Provorov<br />
2. Shayne Gostisbehere<br />
3. Nolan Patrick<br />
4. Travis Konecny<br />
5. Scott Laughton<br />
6. Oskar Lindblom<br />
7. Morgan Frost<br />
8. Wade Allison<br />
9. Carter Hart<br />
10. Travis Sanheim<br />
11. Phil Myers<br />
12. Robert Hagg<br />
13. Sam Morin<br />
14. Danick Martel<br />
15. Mike Vecchione<br />
16. Taylor Leier<br />
17. Mikhail Vorobyev<br />
18. German Rubtsov<br />
19. Nicolas Aube-Kubel<br />
20. Tanner Laczynski<br />
21. Anthony Stolarz<br />
22. Felix Sandstrom<br />
23. Mark Friedman<br />
24. Maksim Sushko<br />
25. Isaac Ratcliffe<br />
Honorable Mention (in order from 26-33)<br />
Tyrell Goulbourne<br />
Radel Fazleev<br />
Connor Bunnaman<br />
Matt Strome<br />
David Kase<br />
Pascal Laberge<br />
Cooper Marody<br />
Kirill Ustimenko<br />
<div style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: "Trebuchet MS", Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;">
<div>
<b><br /></b></div>
</div>
<div>
And an honorable mention that I feel is notable:<br />
<ul>
<li>Ollie Lycksell - Good try BSH, that's a fake name.</li>
</ul>
<div>
Turns out Ollie Lycksell actually spells his first name 'Olle' AND he's invited to Sweden's World Juniors camp, so maybe he was a bit of a miss for me. Beyond him, there are some exciting new additions to the group (the only real subtractions being Gostisbehere and Vecchione) and some players that have made significant strides forward in the past six months. </div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
That's going to be a challenge - there are 25 spots for 34 prospects plus a draft haul that included two first round picks. Here's how I'm ranking the lads.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>1. Ivan Provorov<br />2. Nolan Patrick<br />3. Travis Konecny</b></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
My top four has not changed, but Gostisbehere graduated. Shutdown defenseman, then second-line center, then top-six winger. We know they're all going to be in the organization for a decade, and at this point I think the only question we have about potential is with Patrick. But it's a good question, as in 'how high can his ceiling go?'</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>4. Scott Laughton</b></div>
<div>
<b>5. Travis Sanheim<br />6. Oskar Lindblom</b></div>
<div>
<b>7. Robert Hagg</b></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
These guys should all be NHL regulars this year. I think Laughton's work on the penalty kill is going to be underratedly important to the team's success this year, and I think Lindblom might even be joining him in that department. Robert Hagg is a fine player, but the upside of Sanheim (if he can hit that upside, with Hagg or MacDonald or Gudas or whomever) means he could potentially take the leap to the group above this one. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>8. Carter Hart</b></div>
<div>
<b><br /></b></div>
<div>
I'm penciling him in here between the sure-thing NHLers and the could-be NHLers even though he's probably not an NHLer this year. Simply put, the pressure of being the Flyers' future franchise goalie is second only to being the goalie for Team Canada. Hart's .930 save percentage in last year's World Juniors (they won gold) tells you all you need to know about his mental makeup. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>9. Morgan Frost</b></div>
<div>
<b>10. Philippe Myers</b></div>
<div>
<b>11. Sam Morin</b></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
God I hope these three make the big club this year. Myers probably has the best shot out of camp (since Morin is injured and Frost is still just a boy), but I rank Frost slightly ahead of him because third center (especially one of the playmaking variety instead of the checking variety) is more important than fourth or fifth defenseman. As for Sammy, I love him and I hope he jumps into the lineup after he rehabs. He's exactly what you want on your third pair for a playoff run. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>12. Felix Sandstrom</b></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Perhaps I'm putting too much stock in this year's development camp, but all the reports that I saw showed Sandstrom as Hart's peer. They have decidedly different styles - Hart's the calming presence who specializes in positioning, Sandstrom the freak athlete-slash-contortionist - but they will eventually be a fearsome tandem. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>13. Wade Allison</b></div>
<div>
<b>14. Isaac Ratcliffe</b></div>
<div>
<b>15. Joel Farabee</b></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
None of them will sniff the NHL this year. Ratcliffe is probably the only one who will even see any AHL time. But these three represent the potential 'goal-scoring wingers' of the future. We have James van Riemsdyk and Konecny (and I guess Claude Giroux?) for now, but the thought one one day adding these three to the top nine is making my mouth water. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>16. Mikhail Vorobyev</b></div>
<div>
<b>17. Nicolas Aube-Kubel</b></div>
<div>
<b>18. Danick Martel</b></div>
<div>
<b>19. Taylor Leier</b></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
I think two of these four are going to make the Flyers out of camp. They're the NHL-AHL 'tweeners' who could probably swim if we threw them into the deep end. But that's not how Ron Hextall operates, so we'll settle with the nugget that Danick Martel led the Flyers in Shot Attempts Per Sixty Minutes last season. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>20. Maksim Sushko</b><br />
<b>21. Tanner Laczynski</b></div>
<div>
<b>22. Jay O'Brien</b><br />
<b>23. Connor Bunnaman</b></div>
<div>
<b>24. Jack St. Ivany</b><br />
<b>25. Adam Ginning</b></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
This is my ranking, so I rounded out my top 25 with the players who I'm probably higher on than most. Whether it's stories I've read or things I've seen in whatever camp or tournament I might have watched, I hope this last group all finds success on their path to the orange and black. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Now, I'll attempt to defend the guys I left out:</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>German Rubtsov - Yes, he was a first round pick. But how long can he underachieve before we start to remove him from our plans? This year should be big for him, as Eliteprospects shows him making the jump to play for the Phantoms. Maybe the burden of having to try to score 100 points will allow him to simplify his game and focus on being a sound 200-foot player. </li>
<li>Anthony Stolarz - It's kind of like the Rubtsov situation, though to be fair to Stolarz injuries have played a role. I think he absolutely has the chops to be an NHL goalie, but he's been in the Flyers' system for like a decade and nothing has really come of it. The battle between him and Alex Lyon (who is 25 and therefore ineligible for this list) should be a doozy this season. </li>
<li>Mark Friedman - He's a dog, and he absolutely could have snuck into that last group of four because he plays with so much heart all the time. I guess an AHL career with the potential for an NHL call-up isn't a bad way to go. </li>
<li>Tyrell Goulbourne - We're probably done with him on the big club. </li>
<li>Radel Fazleev - I used to think of him and Vorobyev as a pair, but last year Vorobyev seemed to take a huge step forward while Fazleev stayed pretty steady. </li>
<li>Matt Strome - Oh man, just wait til he learns how to skate. Then you're all in trouble!</li>
<li>David Kase - He was a victim of the depth of this prospect pool. He's a solid player but nobody really seems to be all that high on him. </li>
<li>Pascal Laberge - God I hope he has a bounceback year with the Phantoms this year. Poor guy's brain is heartbreakingly fucked up from that cheap shot in the World Juniors a few years ago. </li>
<li>Kirill Ustimenko - The Rinaldo pick is actually maybe a pretty good goalie?</li>
<li>Reece Wilcox - I know he re-signed with the Phantoms, but I think that's probably the end of the road for him. I don't see a way for him to leapfrog the big names ahead of him. </li>
<li>Olle Lycksell - Like I said above, he's hopefully going to be playing in the World Juniors this year, which would be a great way for him to build some hype. </li>
<li>Cole Bardreau - Do you think they'll give him a Dale Weise contract when Dale Weise's contract expires?</li>
<li>Wyatte Wylie - I'll quote a Flyers scout: "there's nothing really flashy but he's a pretty effective guy"- he also has a fucking sweet name. </li>
</ul>
</div>
Jayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13632002302783356696noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8869544188552161021.post-54171118400911143312018-07-10T11:31:00.000-04:002018-07-10T11:31:10.027-04:00Nikita Kucherov Signed An Extension With The LightningThe big news in the hockey world today (so far) is Nikita Kucherov's extension with the Tampa Bay Lightning. Homeboy got PAID:<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en">
<div dir="ltr" lang="en">
KUUUUUUUUUCH!!!<br /><br />We have signed Nikita Kucherov to an eight-year contract extension worth an average of $9.5 million.<br /><br />📝: <a href="https://t.co/mteggHnm8D">https://t.co/mteggHnm8D</a> <a href="https://t.co/id4aAFZIWu">pic.twitter.com/id4aAFZIWu</a></div>
— Tampa Bay Lightning (@TBLightning) <a href="https://twitter.com/TBLightning/status/1016683501440167936?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 10, 2018</a></blockquote>
I was curious about the contract specifics, because you know law school and whatnot, so I headed on over to the best website in the world, <a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/players/nikita-kucherov" target="_blank">CapFriendly</a>. Kucherov's teammate and linemate, Steven Stamkos, famously accepted his contract extension two summers ago with the following construction:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>$1 million per year in annual salary, split between the 180 total days in the league year</li>
<li>$7.5 million per year in a signing bonus, paid at the start of the season</li>
</ul>
<div>
We'll see if Kucherov opts for a similar structure, and to be honest that will probably be announced before I'm done writing this. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
But why set up a contract like this? I think there are two reasons:</div>
<div>
<ol>
<li>Getting a check for $7.5 million (or $8.5 million in Kucherov's case) has to be the greatest fucking feeling in the history of the world. These guys are living their childhood dreams, playing the sport they love every day, and they get to cash a check big enough to give Jose Gaspar a heart attack. </li>
<li>Taxes</li>
</ol>
</div>
<div>
Florida, of course, does not have a state income tax. So any money that Kucherov 'earns' in Florida would only be subject to federal taxes. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Michael McCann broke this down in a similar fashion for recent-free-agent-but-current-Toronto-Maple-Leaf John Tavares <a href="https://www.si.com/nhl/2018/06/27/john-tavares-islanders-free-agency-taxes-salary-contract" target="_blank">here</a>. The short version is Tavares cost himself almost $10 million over the life of his contract by signing in Toronto (Canada/socialist) instead of Florida (no state income tax/no laws). </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
But that's really just for the salary component of the contract. There is another piece of the pie that would lead Stamkos (and I'm betting Kucherov too) to see a signing-bonus-heavy contract. Any money that he 'earns' in other states (read: road games) is subject to those states' taxes under what's commonly referred to as the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jock_tax" target="_blank">Jock Tax</a>. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Of the 180-day NHL season, each team plays (checks Google) 41 road games in the regular season and 3 road games in the preseason. For Tampa this season, that breaks down like this (with state/city tax rates):</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
*Please note that I reached this point and realized that I don't really understand Jock Tax rates. I think it's just a percentage of the player's income that is taxable in that state/city, so we can just plug the rates from my list below in as tax that would have to be paid in addition to his US Federal taxes. Each game day that the player's team has in the 'away' state will be taxed at the following rates:</div>
<br />
<div>
<ul>
<li>Florida (3x) - 0%</li>
<li>Montreal (2x) - 25.75%</li>
<li>Ottawa (2x) - 13.16%</li>
<li>Buffalo (2x) - 8.8%</li>
<li>Detroit (2x) - 6.65%</li>
<li>Boston (2x) - 5.1%</li>
<li>Toronto (2x) - 13.16%</li>
<li>Philadelphia (2x) - 6.99%</li>
<li>NY Rangers (2x) - 12.7%</li>
<li>Carolina (2x) - 5.49%</li>
<li>Nashville (2x) - 0.0%</li>
<li>Minnesota - 9.85%</li>
<li>Chicago - 4.95%</li>
<li>Colorado - 4.63%</li>
<li>Las Vegas - 0.0%</li>
<li>Arizona - 4.54%</li>
<li>Pittsburgh - 4.07%</li>
<li>New Jersey - 8.97%</li>
<li>Winnipeg - 17.4%</li>
<li>Vancouver - 14.7%</li>
<li>Calgary - 15%</li>
<li>Edmonton - 15%</li>
<li>Anaheim - 13.3%</li>
<li>Los Angeles - 13.3%</li>
<li>San Jose - 13.3% </li>
<li>NY Islanders - 12.7%</li>
<li>Columbus - 7.63%</li>
<li>Washington - 8.85%</li>
<li>St. Louis - 7.0%</li>
</ul>
<div>
Now, if you multiply those tax rates by 1/180th of Kucherov's two potential 'salary numbers' ($1 million, or $5,556 per league day, and $8.5 million, or $47,222 per league day), here's what you get. </div>
</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>$1m salary: additional $20,599 (2.1%) paid in jock taxes</li>
<li>$8.5m salary: additional $175,095 (2.1%) paid in jock taxes</li>
</ul>
<div>
As it turns out, it's really just a drop in the bucket either way. Obviously, to the average person, that difference of $150k would be a lot, but when your yearly earnings are almost $10 million who the hell cares. That's like me paying an extra (pulls out calculator) thousand bucks a year. Would I prefer to have that money in my pocket? Obviously. Am I going to starve to death without it? Maybe but I'll probably live. </div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
This exercise proved to be mostly futile, except I now have state/local tax rates for every NHL team. It really sheds a light on how much the variation in tax rates across the continent benefit teams who play their home games (and practices, and everything else) in tax havens. Yeah, Kucherov is going to get dinged for almost half a day's pay for his two trips to Montreal. But he's also not going to get dinged at all for like a hundred and forty days of the season. Jock Tax - not actually that big of a deal. It's much better to play your home games in a tax-free zone, and maybe that's why the Lightning are able to keep their talent all locked up together. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Well, because it's the NHL and nothing really makes sense, the Florida Panthers play three hours away from Tampa with the same tax laws and their organization is a god damn mess. Eat at Arby's. </div>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>
Jayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13632002302783356696noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8869544188552161021.post-28854763288767913862018-07-02T09:43:00.002-04:002018-07-02T09:43:36.309-04:00Flyers 2018-19 Lineup, Volume 2Well folks, Volume 1 of this season's lineup lasted for an entire week and a half. Perhaps I got started too soon and I should have waited for free agency to at least start, but honestly I didn't expect Ron Hextall to make a splash like he did. I was lured to sleep by three summers of Boyd Gordon and Dale Weise, and that's on me. I'm sorry.<br />
<br />
BUT we have a new big strong boy in the lineup, and his name is Former Flyer James van Riemsdyk. We'll start there, because the Flyers now have an absolute no-brainer of a first line.<br />
<br />
<b>Giroux-Couturier-van Riemsdyk</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Ignore handedness. If your reaction to this line is "well JVR usually plays left wing" then you are the worst. We're keeping our dynamic duo together and adding the BIG STRONG HARD-HITTING GOAL-SCORING WINGER that Sam Carchidi has been tweeting about with porn GIFs for like two years. Now we just need a nickname, but the only things I can think of right now are Jean-Claude Van Dam references. More like Sean Claude Van Daaaamn, am I right?<br />
<br />
<b>Konecny-Patrick-Voracek</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
I'm literally drooling.<br />
<br />
But after the top six, it gets a little more like Yahtzee. Here's who we have left (in order of cap hit):<br />
<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>Wingers: Lehtera, Simmonds, Weise, Raffl, Lindblom, Leier, Aube-Kubel</li>
<li>Centers: Laughton, Weal, Vorobyev, Vecchione, Frost</li>
</ul>
Obviously we're pulling two guys from the pool of centers and throwing the rest into the pool of wingers. You can mix that up five thousand different ways, but I'm tempted to start with something we know is good and fun.<br />
<br />
<b>The-Honey-Bees</b><br />
<b>(Leier-Laughton-Raffl)</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
We know they can skate with any line in the league, and they flashed some chemistry in the offensive zone. One of my criticisms of Hakstol last season was his reliance on the phrase "consistent in all three zones" combined with his abandonment of this line that was.. consistent in all three zones. Let's bring back the Honey Bees 2k18.<br />
<br />
Here's where it really gets tough for me. A Lindblom-Weal-Simmonds line is the best way to get NHL experience on the third line, but at some point we're going to have to get Nic Aube-Kubel, Misha Vorobyev, Mike Vecchione, and Morgan Frost in the lineup.<br />
<br />
<b>Lindblom-Weal-Simmonds </b><br />
<br />
Ron preaches patience, though, and I think we'll get that as the third line to start the season. Based on Charlie O'Connor's tweets it seems like Hextall likes Weal at center, which means we'll get another year of slow cooking for Vorobyev and Frost. And Mike Vecchione, the most unlucky player in the NHL, will continue to have his plans shattered by the lottery that netted the Flyers Nolan Patrick.<br />
<br />
On the back end of the lineup, the big news is Brandon Manning signed with the Blackhawks so we can officially shut the door on him as a Flyer. We can also shut the door on Dougie Hamilton, as he's a Carolina Hurricane and presumably no longer on the trading block. Here's how I'd fill out the defense:<br />
<br />
<b>Provorov-Gostisbehere</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Old reliable.<br />
<br />
<b>Sanheim-Hagg</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
I like the potential for Sanheim's dynamic game paired with Hagg's steady physical presense.<br />
<br />
<b>MacDonald-Myers</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
I mean obviously that last spot on the right side is going to be Gudas but a kid can dream.Jayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13632002302783356696noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8869544188552161021.post-73005279932467751922018-06-20T15:44:00.002-04:002018-06-20T15:44:56.496-04:00Flyers (2018-19) Lineup, Volume 1We are pre-draft, pre-free-agency. We are very extremely way too early in the NHL year to be doing this. Honestly, with the NHL Awards tonight we might not even be in the new league year yet.<br />
<br />
Nevertheless, I saw a tweet today:<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en">
<div dir="ltr" lang="en">
Giroux-Couturier-Konecny<br />Weal-Patrick-Voracek<br />Lindblom- -<br />Vecchione-Laughton-<br /><br />Assuming all the free agents are gone that's the lineup I know of remaining players.(would rather Laughton be 3C but ya know)<br /><br />Fill in the blanks. Do not edit the lines.</div>
— Sauce (@ExtraSauce_) <a href="https://twitter.com/ExtraSauce_/status/1009498563452329988?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 20, 2018</a></blockquote>
And I would like to participate in the on line activities.<br />
<br />
First note: you'll notice that a certain winger who wears #17 is not included. I'm buying into the rumors that Simmonds is on the trading block, and I've had him shipped off to Calgary for months now (more on that in a minute).<br />
<br />
So here's how I'd complete Sauce's post:<br />
<br />
Giroux-Couturier-Konecny<br />
Weal-Patrick-Voracek<br />Lindblom-Vorobyev(1)-Rick Nash(2)<br />Vecchione-Laughton-Raffl(3)<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
(1) Mikhail Vorobyev and Nicolas Aube-Kubel are both NHL-ready and I won't listen to anyone who tells me otherwise. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
(2) A veteran winger with goal-scoring and penalty-killing ability and some deep playoff runs under his belt? Why the fuck would you not want Rick Nash? For what it's worth, <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Q-Pnzfvmo_1hDlWu7WqJHVyTZqy15386jVESKSOf0V4/edit#gid=0">Matt Cane's free agent salary projector </a>has Nash getting a 1-year, $4.6 million dollar contract. If you want to bump it to 2 years and $8.5 million, that's a-okay with me. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
(3) I think he admitted this after the fact but he just left Raffl off. I guess I'll note here that I'd also be fine with Taylor Leier in the Vecchione spot, because the Honey Bees fucking rocked. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Now, to address Simmonds. I read something once several months ago about Calgary's GM wanting to toughen up his team and his room. So, of course, we're shipping Simmonds and Gudas to Calgary for Dougie Hamilton (three years remaining at $5.75m per). Simmonds takes one of the alternate captain patches and the new pair immediately brings a new kind of brutality to Calgary that they apparently need (I don't know). </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
But I would think we'd have to sweeten the pot, right? I mean it's three years of a top-four guy who can play on the power play in exchange for perhaps just one year of a power forward and two years of someone who has only been a top-pairing guy when he was stapled to Ivan Provorov. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
I looked back through some trades to find defensemen similar to Hamilton who have been moved:</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>Ryan McDonagh - Granted, this was a deadline acquisition (plus another year) that also included JT Miller. But it netted NYR Vlad Namestnikov, two decent-at-worst prospects, and a first round pick</li>
<li>I just want to note that I'm not going to use Dion Phaneuf as a comparable, even though it would make Simmonds+Gudas look like a great deal for the Flames</li>
<li>Sami Vatanen - NJD spent Adam Henrique (with a year and a half remaining), a minor-leaguer, and a third-round pick</li>
<li>Travis Hamonic - He cost Calgary a first-round pick and two second-round picks</li>
<li>Niklas Hjalmarsson - Arizona paid Connor Murphy (career high 17 points in a season) and Laurent Dauphin (who they eventually traded back to Arizona in the Anthony Duclair trade but scored 0 points in 2 NHL games last season)</li>
</ul>
<div>
That's not a lot to go on, especially since nobody listed above has really filled the scoresheet like Hamilton (17-27--44 last year, 52-127--179 over the last four season). McDonagh's best four-year stretch was 152 points, and if last year was an indication then he seems to be declining in terms of offensive production. I think Vatanen is good because Hockey Twitter has warped my mind, but he's totaled 103 points in the past four seasons. Ditto Hamonic, who has reached 30 points just once in his career. Hjalmarsson has never even reached the 30 mark (though to be fair he's a 'proven winner' so his trade value was probably inflated). </div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
I think all four of those comparables are probably 'better defensively' than Hamilton, while also not as good offensively. McDonagh would probably be the best comparable, though it's tough to gauge what he actually fetched because his package included a 25-year-old, 50-60-point-per-year guy. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
If I have to try to summarize this and wrap it up, I think Simmonds-Gudas aren't enough. That pair would basically amount to what New Jersey sent Anaheim for Vatanen, and Hamilton scores about twice as much as him. I think Calgary would want a pick or prospect, and that's where it gets dicey for me because I don't know how the Flyers (or the Flames) value Philly's prospect pool. I guess I would just blindly trust Ron Hextall to include a sweeter that wasn't too sweet. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
And, alas, here is the bottom half of the depth chart that I started fifty paragraphs ago:</div>
<div>
Provorov-Hamilton</div>
<div>
Gostisbehere-Myers</div>
<div>
Sanheim-Hagg</div>
<div>
MacDonald</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Elliot</div>
<div>
Lyon</div>
Jayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13632002302783356696noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8869544188552161021.post-43810177922228336872018-04-24T16:24:00.002-04:002018-06-20T15:49:23.722-04:00Flyers Draft Preview - Forwards In The 14-20 RangeWith the book on wacky, up-and-down, sometimes-great-sometimes-miserable 2017-18 Flyers season now closed, it's time to look to the future. It's almost certainly brighter than this year's Penguins series, and it's going to get at least a little bit brighter this June in Dallas.<br />
<br />
The Flyers, with their first-round exit, will own the 19th pick in the draft. They will likely also claim St. Louis' pick as a result of the Morgan Frost Trade (that's what we're calling it now), which will has a 95% chance of being 14th overall and a 2% chance of being 15th.<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>St. Louis has a 5% chance of winning the lottery and moving into the top three, in which case they can defer the pick to next year's draft.</li>
<li>Florida has a 3.3% chance of winning the lottery and bumping the Flyers' pick from 14th down to 15th. </li>
</ul>
<div>
So we're going to be able to add something decent. Here are some notable players who were taken in that late-teens-to-early-twenties range over the past several years:</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>2017 - Juuso Valimaki, Timothy Liljegren, Filip Chytl</li>
<li>2016 - Charlie McAvoy, Jakob Chychrun, German Rubtsov</li>
<li>2015 - Matthew Barzal, Brock Boeser, Travis Konecny</li>
<li>2014 - Dylan Larkin, Travis Sanheim, David Pastrnak</li>
</ul>
<div>
Now, obviously, draft picks are all lottery tickets and this doesn't mean we're going to just be able to plus McAvoy- and Pastrnak-equivalents into the lineup next season. But Ron Hextall has a proven track record of nailing draft picks, and there's a reasonable hope that he's going to grab two young guys who will contribute tangibly in two or three years. </div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Even though I'm wildly underqualified - and I will freely admit that I'm going to blindly trust Ron on whoever he ends up drafting - I want to learn more about the guys who should be on the board when it's Philadelphia's turn to select this summer. I'm going to focus on forwards, because (1) we already have so many defenseman and (2) forwards tend to translate in a more predictable way, and also they're ready to go quicker. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Let's split them into two groups, just for the sake of making this as easy as possible for me. Most of the NHL draft prospect websites tend to agree on where certain players rank on the 'big board', so we have a decent idea of who *might* be on the board for the Flyers and who *should* be.<br />
<br />
All rankings and breakdowns are provided by the wonderful <a href="http://www.eliteprospects.com/draftcenter.php?year=2018&layout=&ranking=Rank5">Eliteprospects</a> unless I linked another source. I leaned on Corey Pronman (from The Athletic) because he's the best at this stuff. Mile High Hockey, SB Nation's Avs site, had a bunch of these guys reviewed because the Avs' pick projects to be right in the same neighborhood as the Flyers'. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><u>Forwards That Probably Won't Be On The Board, But Might, Maybe</u></b></div>
<div>
<b><u><br /></u></b>
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<img alt="Image result for Joel Farabee" height="280" src="https://cdn2.sportngin.com/attachments/photo/7408/8576/20160901-673B0831.jpg" width="400" /></div>
<b><u><br /></u></b></div>
<div>
Joel Farabee, winger, US National Development Team</div>
<div>
6,0", 168 pounds</div>
<div>
Ranked between 8th and 16th by the big four hockey prospect sites</div>
"Dangerous two-way forward who uses his legs and IQ to make something happen most shifts"<br />
<div>
“Super slick playmaker from the wing. He has excellent vision and playmaking abilities. Somewhat slight of frame, but is slippery enough to avoid big contact.” <a href="https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/sportsnets-2018-nhl-draft-prospect-rankings-december/">source</a></div>
<div>
"Cerebral three-zone playmaker who consistently adheres to textbook fundamentals in addition to being one of the most lethal scorers in his draft class. He can tailor his style to fit any game — wide open, slogging matches, physical…it simply does not matter. Farabee is a top-line winger for the NTDP and he plays that role in every situation no matter the score or time on the clock." <a href="https://www.thedraftanalyst.com/2018-nhl-draft/2018-draft-prospects/2018-draft-profile-lw-joel-farabee/">source</a><br />
<div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<img alt="Image result for Jesperi Kotkaniemi" height="268" src="https://finnprospects.com/content/uploads/2017/01/Jesperi-Kotkaniemi_0009.jpg" width="400" /></div>
<br />
<div>
Jesperi Kotkaniemi, center, Ässät <span style="background-color: white; font-family: "verdana"; font-size: 12px;">(</span>Finland)</div>
<div>
6'2", 190 pounds</div>
<div>
Ranked between 10th and 18th by the big four hockey prospect sites </div>
"A smart forward with a dangerous shot, Kotkaniemi possesses a high hockey IQ and determination with the skills to back it up. Positions himself well and often seems to be a step ahead of plays. Stickhandling and creativity allow him to split professional defences as a teenager. Decent size and frame, yet a very capable skater."<br />
"Alert and versatile forward with good speed and a wide range of attributes who has performed well beyond expectations as a 17-year-old playing key minutes in Finland’s top league. Kotkaniemi comes across as a smart, clean player with or without the puck and can play either center or wing. He is used on the penalty kill and in late-game situations, showing defensive prowess regardless of the job he’s assigned. He has a nose for sniffing out opposing intentions, and his quick hands and keen vision can turn a run-of-the-mill enemy breakout into a quality chance for him or his mates." <a href="https://www.thedraftanalyst.com/2018-nhl-draft/2018-draft-prospects/2018-draft-profile-cw-jesperi-kotkaniemi/">source</a><br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<img alt="Image result for Grigori Denisenko" src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/0PEKXeJAYhU/hqdefault.jpg" /></div>
Grigori Denisenko, winger, Yoko Yaroslavl (KHL)<br />
5'10", 165 pounds<br />
Ranked between 11th and 21st by the big four hockey prospect sites<br />
"Displays high skill level and skating agility with the puck on his stick…a playmaker with the shooting ability to finish chances himself."<br />
"As a traditional Russian winger, Denisenko can boast in his arsenal tremendous puck-handling skills, excellent skating with high top speed, and a good nose for spotting an open partner. All this packed in a compact 5-foot-11, 175-pound body that will surely cause him to slip down a bit in the draft day, even if size in the NHL has not a dramatic impact as it used to have." <a href="https://thehockeywriters.com/grigori-denisenko-2018-nhl-draft-prospect-profile/">source</a><br />
"Many NHL teams may also be concerned by his maturity. He likes to (over)play the puck and is prone to “bad discipline” penalties."<br />
“Denisenko is one of the most skilled players in his draft class. On a pure talent level, he’s one of, it not the top Russian in this draft class (and no I didn’t forget about Andrei Svechnikov). Denisenko manipulates the puck so well and does so at high speeds.” <a href="https://theathletic.com/277793/2018/03/19/pronman-grigori-denisenko-is-a-top-prospect-for-2018-nhl-draft-despite-his-numbers/">source</a><br />
<div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<img alt="Image result for Rasmus Kupari" height="268" src="https://finnprospects.com/content/uploads/2017/02/xlarge-812069.jpg" width="400" /></div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Rasmus Kupari, center, Hermes (Finland)</div>
<div>
5'11", 163 pounds</div>
<div>
Ranked between 12th and 22nd by the big four hockey prospect sites</div>
"He is a mix of Jesse Puljujärvi and Sebastian Aho. Slick Finnish forward, very dangerous with the puck on his stick, always a threat offensively."<br />
<div>
"Kupari is a highly skilled, playmaking center. He is undersized, but is a strong skater with a high hockey IQ and hockey sense that makes him a dangerous offensive player and a reliable defensive player. He started the season playing at the pro level in Liiga, but after struggling somewhat was loaned to Hermes in the Mestis. Don’t be discouraged by this apparent set back as an undersized 17-year-old, undersized player it simply means Kupari needs more development time before he is pro ready. Kupari has a high ceiling, and drawing comparisons to countryman Sebastian Aho gives you an indication of his upside, but he is a long term investment." <a href="https://dobberprospects.com/rasmus-kupari/">source</a></div>
<div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<img alt="Image result for Isac Lundestrom" height="184" src="https://futureconsiderations.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Lundestrom-1-Lulea-846x390.jpg" width="400" /></div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<div>
Isac Lundestrom, center/winger, Luleå (Sweden)</div>
<div>
6'0", 185 pounds</div>
<div>
Ranked between 11th and 20th by the big four hockey prospect sites</div>
"One of the younger players in the draft class, that didn't stop him from centering the first line of Sweden's World Junior Tournament silver medal winning team. Dependable, reliable and responsible are what scouts thought a year ago, and only solidified that opinion this season with strong work in the faceoff circle, decent use of his size, skating ability and smarts while on the ice. Very versatile as he can line up at any of the three forward positions, the power play, and penalty kill. Works hard, drives the net, pressure the opposing defensemen, and creates turnovers. Drives to the net, and is decent in the defensive zone. The team that takes him his making a safe selection based on his all-around attributes that point upward." <a href="https://www.draftsite.com/nhl/player/isac-lundestr%C3%B6m/28684/">source</a></div>
<div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<img alt="Image result for Joseph Veleno" src="http://www.beerleagueheroes.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/veleno.jpg" height="278" width="400" /></div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<div>
Joseph Veleno, center, Drummondville (Canada)</div>
<div>
6'1", 194 pounds</div>
Ranked between 9th and 23rd by the big four hockey prospect sites<br />
"There is so much to like about Joe Veleno. He's a hard-nosed workhorse that makes the players around him better. The fleet-footed center is unselfish and will primarily look to make a play at top speed; however, when the chance arises to put it in the pot himself, he will capitalize. He sees the ice well and is rarely caught out of position. His defensive game is refined and he actively pursues puck control. Transitioning to offence is natural, smooth, and quick. All-in-all, a well-rounded two-way forward that skates well and can be the catalyst a team needs to turn a game in its favor. If he can find the consistency in refusing to let himself get taken out of plays, especially if he doesn't start them, he will thrive and exceed expectations."</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><u>Forwards That Probably Will Be On The Board, Almost Definitely, I Hope</u></b></div>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<b><u><br /></u></b>
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<img alt="Image result for Martin Kaut," height="225" src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/iNr7SJ02klQ/maxresdefault.jpg" width="400" /></div>
<b><u><br /></u></b></div>
<div>
Martin Kaut, winger, Dynamo Pardubice (Czech)</div>
<div>
6'1", 174 pounds</div>
<div>
Ranked between 17th and 34th by the big four hockey prospect sites</div>
"The combination of his passing and shooting ability makes him a threat on the powerplay."<br />
<div>
"I don’t have him in my first [round], but the buzz right now in the industry is he could go there, especially after showing well last week on the Czech national team. I’m not sure he’s dynamic enough for that slot. Good not great hands, average feet. Very smart though." <a href="https://theathletic.com/308516/2018/04/11/pronman-mailbag-wahlstrom-vs-tkachuk-skill-vs-intangibles-and-more-on-2018-draft-prospects/">source</a></div>
<div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<img alt="Image result for Dominik Bokk" height="226" src="https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/wp-media-theathletic-production/app/uploads/2018/01/31080922/Bokk-cropped-1024x581.jpg" width="400" /></div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Dominik Bokk, winger, Vaxjo Lakers (Sweden)</div>
<div>
6'1", 179 pounds</div>
<div>
Ranked between 21st and 46th by the big four hockey prospect sites </div>
"A highly talented winger with one on one ability, quick hands, and creative passing. Can challenge goalies with his shot, too."<br />
<div>
"Bokk is a unique prospect. What's evident from watching roughly 15 of Bokk's games this season is his skill and creativity. He is one of the most skilled players in the draft. His puck handling is elite for a player his size and, when I've talked to management from his German national teams, they specifically point to his skill as his best attribute. I'd characterize Bokk as a playmaker, but he does have a very good shot. Most scouts I've talked to describe Bokk as soft, indifferent off the puck and not very smart defensively." <a href="https://theathletic.com/225405/2018/01/31/pronman-why-dominik-bokk-the-next-deutschland-dangler-is-worth-a-high-pick-in-2018-nhl-draft/">source</a></div>
<div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<img alt="Image result for Vitali Kravtsov" src="http://www.khl.ru/images/teamplayers/8516/24801.jpg" /></div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Vitali Kravtsov, winger, Traktor Chelyabinsk</div>
<div>
6'2". 183 pounds</div>
<div>
Ranked between 24th and 35th by the big four hockey prospect sites</div>
"A big, skilled winger that can play up and down the lineup and provide scoring in a number of roles. He brings grit and physical size, but could be more assertive in throwing his weight around more. Displays excellent speed on the rush and in zone entry, but could backcheck quicker. Plays well in his own end and takes away lanes. Very good hands and awareness. Kravtsov has the potential to develop into a staple top six forward that can produce at the next level."<br />
<div>
"There’s no prospect creating more of a buzz the past few weeks than Kravtsov in the KHL playoffs. He’s getting ice time on the second power play unit and regular even strength. He showed nice skills and speed for his size, but has a very straight line style without a ton of plays. Then all of a sudden, he starts lighting the world on fire, his goals spreading across the hockey community. The clubs that have watched him, from what I’ve heard, love him." <a href="https://theathletic.com/297798/2018/04/04/pronman-prospects-causing-the-biggest-debates-ahead-of-the-2018-nhl-draft/">source</a></div>
<div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<img alt="Image result for Barrett Hayton" src="http://files.eliteprospects.com/layout/players/ep_27_hayton,_barrett_(41)_2018-01-27.jpg" /></div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Barrett Hayton, center, Soo Greyhounds (Canada)</div>
<div>
6'1", 185 pounds</div>
<div>
Ranked between 12th and 27th by the big four hockey prospect sites</div>
"Hayton is really smart. Good skill but probably not high-end. He can project as an above-average center at both ends of the rink." <a href="https://theathletic.com/281739/2018/03/22/pronman-mailbag-draft-evaluations-prospect-forecasts-and-more/">source</a><br />
"Hayton is one of the best two-way forwards in the draft. His hockey IQ is quite impressive. Hayton has the reliable defensive forward sense and work ethic off the puck where he makes good defensive plays and wins pucks, and I like his vision and composure with the puck. Hayton also features a heavy shot and can finish chances well. The main issue in projecting him to the NHL is his feet. He really doesn’t have an explosive element and can struggle to push defenders back off the rush, but he gets where he needs to by working hard." <a href="https://theathletic.com/211493/2018/01/29/pronman-midseason-2018-nhl-draft-rankings/">source</a><br />
<div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<img alt="Image result for Serron Noel" height="225" src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/qkBt7J1vgt8/maxresdefault.jpg" width="400" /></div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Serron Noel, winger, Oshawa (Canada)</div>
<div>
6'5", 209 pounds</div>
<div>
Ranked between 21st and 31st by the big four hockey prospect sites</div>
"Serron Noel is a project that is going to be well worth the wait. His game is very raw and there is a lot of work to be done, but he has the potential to be an impact power forward in the NHL. He has proven the ability to put the puck in the net, particularly in close to the crease. Noel only really shoots the puck from high-danger areas, as a result, he’s got an abnormally high shooting percentage. Noel isn’t going to drive your team’s offense. He is below average when it comes to zone entry attempts. He works hard on the back check and was one of the best Oshawa forwards when it came to controlled zone exits this season." <a href="https://www.milehighhockey.com/2018/4/24/17265748/2018-nhl-draft-prospect-profile-serron-noel-scouting-report">source</a><br />
"There’s been a lot of buzz for Noel this season for this draft. Some fans who haven’t seen him, might Google him quickly and see fine but not great stats in the OHL and think this is a classic case of overvaluing size because he is 6-foot-5. That might be true to some extent, but Noel has some real ability. He has good puck skills, skates decent and can create offense; and with his frame, he is one of the best forwards around the net and on the boards in this class. The questions going forward are just how skilled is he and whether he’s smart enough to make plays at an NHL pace." <a href="https://theathletic.com/297798/2018/04/04/pronman-prospects-causing-the-biggest-debates-ahead-of-the-2018-nhl-draft/">source</a><br />
<div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<img alt="Image result for Jay O'Brien" src="http://www.hockeyjournal.com/nehockeyjournal/december_2017/data/articles/img/046-02.jpg" height="279" width="400" /></div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Jay O'Brien, center, Providence (USA)</div>
<div>
6'0", 174 pounds</div>
<div>
Ranked between 31st and 42nd by the big four hockey prospect sites</div>
"His prep coach, Tony Amonte, envisions him in The Show. 'Jay seems to have all the aspects of a professional. He wants it bad enough, he puts work in the gym, he shows up to work every day, he leads by example in practice.'" <a href="http://www.hockeyjournal.com/nehockeyjournal/december_2017/MobilePagedArticle.action?articleId=1246707#articleId1246707">source</a><br />
<div>
"<i>What is the scouting report/consensus on Jay O'Brien in terms of his potential? Is he a first-round talent?</i> -- No, not dynamic enough. Second or third round." <a href="https://theathletic.com/308516/2018/04/11/pronman-mailbag-wahlstrom-vs-tkachuk-skill-vs-intangibles-and-more-on-2018-draft-prospects/">source</a></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><u>Summary/Wish List</u></b></div>
<div>
<b><u><br /></u></b></div>
<div>
Wish list players are notated with an asterisk (*)</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
*Joel Farabee - We'd probably have to trade up, but I like him. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
*Jesperi Kotkaniemi - Again, we'd probably have to trade up, but I like him. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Grigori Denisenko - I don't think I want him, if only because the "Russian thing" that always happens seems inevitable. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
*Rasmus Kupari - He's the Scandanavian Travis Konecny, which is absolutely a good thing. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
*Isac Lundestrom - I love him. My expert projection is he'll do a year in the AHL and then immediately be ready to anchor an NHL line. Lock it down. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
*Joseph Veleno - I don't know how you can read that review and also have him ranked this low, but here we are. My gut says someone will love him in the 9-12 range, but if he's around at 15 it seems like he's kind of a no-brainer. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Martin Kaut - No thanks - we already have our right-handed power play guy who can't do anything at even strength (this was a Claude Giroux joke, sorry). </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
*Dominik Bokk - I like him but if Hextall reaches and takes him with 19 I would worry about the bust factor. If we trade down a few spots (like Hextall did when he took Rubtsov) then I like him a lot. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
*Vitali Kravtsov - Big Skilled Gritty Winger Inject Him Into My Veins!!</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Barrett Hayton - What you don't get from that scouting report is he has a dumb face. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Serron Noel - He's Oliver Lauridsen and Sam Morin, but on offense. Though the thought of pairing him and Isaac Ratcliffe on a line together one day is extremely intriguing. At the end of the day, I got hurt too much with Sam Morin and I don't think I'm ready for another project right now. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Jay O'Brien - He's all intangibles, which means he'll probably play 15 years in the AHL and maybe be a solid fourth-liner in the NHL for a while. I'd rather aim higher with a first round pick (this was a Tom Wilson joke, sorry). </div>
Jayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13632002302783356696noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8869544188552161021.post-33048839262694223712018-03-12T09:25:00.000-04:002018-03-12T15:37:06.967-04:002018 NCAA Tournament Preview (Running Blog)I'm just going to throw everything into buckets, and then we'll try to apply it to the actual bracket. Let's start the way I always start NCAA basketball previews.<br />
<br />
<b><u>Teams That Rely On Three Pointers</u></b><br />
6. Davidson (41.9% of their points come from three point field goals)<br />
13. UMBC (40.7%)<br />
20. Villanova (39.3%)<br />
26. Missouri (39.0%)<br />
37. South Dakota St (37.5%)<br />
42. Kansas (37.4%)<br />
45. Georgia St (37.2%)<br />
48. Creighton (37.0%)<br />
55. Michigan (36.5%)<br />
72. Florida (36.0%)<br />
82. Purdue (35.4%)<br />
84. Auburn (35.1%)<br />
86. Nevada (35.0%)<br />
<br />
<b><u>Teams That Defend Well Against Three Pointers</u></b><br />
2. Penn (29.7% opponent three point field goal percentage)<br />
3. Kentucky (29.9%)<br />
6. Virginia (30.3%)<br />
7. Murray St (30.8%)<br />
8. New Mexico St (30.8%)<br />
10. Cincinnati (30.9%)<br />
12. Nevada (31.2%)<br />
14. NC State (31.6%)<br />
18. Alabama (31.9%)<br />
19. Tennessee (31.9%)<br />
22. Providence (32.1%)<br />
23. St. Bonaventure (32.1%)<br />
24. Duke (32.1%)<br />
29. Missouri (32.3%)<br />
33. Texas A&M (32.4%)<br />
40. Miami (32.6%)<br />
41. Kansas (32.7%)<br />
42. LIU Brooklyn (32.7%)<br />
45. Villanova (32.8%)<br />
46. Houston (32.8%)<br />
47. Texas Tech (32.8%)<br />
50. Syracuse (32.8%)<br />
<br />
Some notes on that: Virginia and Kentucky are going to THROTTLE Maryland-Baltimore County and Davidson - parlay it, hammer it, lock it up. Cincinnati is probably going to beat the shit out of Georgia State too. You might be tempted to flirt with Penn against Kansas, and maybe a huge point spread would make that okay.<br />
<br />
<b><u>Teams That Rely On Free Throws To Score</u></b><br />
9. Syracuse (24.0% of their points come from free throws)<br />
14. Auburn (23.2%)<br />
26. Kentucky (22.4%)<br />
27. Lipscomb (22.3%)<br />
28. St. Bonaventure (22.3%)<br />
29. Arizona State (22.3%)<br />
37. Xavier (22.2%)<br />
39. Bucknell (22.0%)<br />
45. Providence (21.7%)<br />
53. Tennessee (21.4%)<br />
56. Alabama (21.3%)<br />
57. Montana (21.1%)<br />
60. Texas Tech (21.1%)<br />
<br />
<b><u>Teams That Don't Allow Their Opponent Many Free Throws</u></b><br />
1. Duke (0.171 opponent free throws attempted per offensive play)<br />
5. Purdue (.181)<br />
8. Creighton (.187)<br />
11. Kansas (.188)<br />
13. Loyola Chicago (.190)<br />
14. Virginia (.190)<br />
15. Xavier (.191)<br />
17. Villanova (.192)<br />
21. Oklahoma (.195)<br />
23. Texas (.195)<br />
24. North Carolina (.196)<br />
25. Cincinnati (.196)<br />
29. South Dakota St (.199)<br />
34. Clemson (.202)<br />
45. Miami (.209)<br />
<br />
Notes: UNC should handle Lipscomb pretty easily.<br />
<br />
<b><u>The Tuesday Play-In Games</u></b><br />
<br />
*Please note that rankings are out of the 351 Division 1 teams, via TeamRankings.com<br />
<br />
Long Island vs. Radford (-4.5)<br />
<br />
LIU Brooklyn Blackbirds<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>76.7 points for (77th), 76.8 points against (275th)</li>
<li>Pace: 121.3 total, 58.4 FGA for (156th), 62.9 FGA against (331st)</li>
<li>For: 52.3 2FG% (75th), 34.8 3FG% (177th), 22.5 FTA/game (47th)</li>
<li>Against: 50.4 2FG% (198th), 32.7 3FG% (42nd), 20.2 FTA/game (220th)</li>
<li>28.2% offensive rebounding (127th), 72.5% defensive rebounding (209th)</li>
<li>5.0% blocks (229th)</li>
<li>Leading scorers: G Joel Hernandez (20.9 pts, 46.5 FG%, 38.0 3FG% on 4.4 attempts/game, 66.5 FT% on 6.5 attempts/game); G Raiquan Clark (17.4 pts, 55.7 FG%, 22.4 3FG% on 0.8 attempts/game, 75.2 FT% on 6.9 attempts/game)</li>
</ul>
<br />
Radford Highlanders<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>66.9 points for (303rd), 64.9 points against (18th)</li>
<li>Pace: 107.6 total, 54.8 FGA for (299th), 52.8 FGA against (17th)</li>
<li>For: 47.3% 2FG (227th), 35.1% 3FG (166th), 17.3 FTA/game (274th)</li>
<li>Against: 48.4% 2FG (110th), 34.2% 3FG (127th), 16.6 FTA/game (52nd)</li>
<li>30.5% offensive rebounding (64th), 73.9% defensive rebounding (149th)</li>
<li>5.5% blocks (190th)</li>
<li>Leading scorers: F Ed Polite (13.5 pts, 48.5 FG%, 28.6 3FG% on 2.3 attempts/game, 72.0 FT% on 4.8 attempts per game); G Carlik Jones (11.8 pts, 41.8 FG%, 31.9 3FG% on 3.3 attempts/game, 77.0 FT% on 3.6 attempts/game)</li>
</ul>
<br />
The most obvious discrepancy is the pace. Radford wants to play painfully slow, and LIU wants to play a more average kind of game. Even if LIU were to turn up the pace a bit, Radford's decent advantage on the glass is a definite point in their favor. Where LIU can bridge the gap is their decided shooting advantage, primarily in terms of two-point completion percentage and free throw attempts. However, that LIU FTA/game stat is kind of misleading because it's impacted by pace. If you adjust it to FTA/FGA, LIU's 0.385 is around the nationwide average, but Radford's defense only allows 0.314 FTA/FGA. Bovada presently has the over/under set at a measly 139 points, which means they think it'll be more Radford's style of game. I tend to agree, and I like Radford -4 or -4.5. At the very least, throw it in your teaser bag.<br />
<br />
St. Bonaventure vs. UCLA (-3.5)<br />
<br />
St. Bonaventure Bonnies<div>
<ul>
<li>77.9 points for (59th), 71.0 points against (130th)</li>
<li>Pace: 114.1 total, 57.8 FGA for (180th), 56.3 FGA against (106th)</li>
<li>For: 48.6 2FG% (224th), 39.8 3FG% (19th), 0.399 FTA/FGA (37th)</li>
<li>Against: 49.6 2FG% (162nd), 32.1% 3FG (23rd), 0.393 FTA/FGA (294th)</li>
<li>29.0% offensive rebounding (109th), 73.7% defensive rebounding (161st)</li>
<li>6.4% blocks (112th)</li>
<li>Leading scorers: G Jaylen Adams (19.8 pts, 45.4 FG%, 45.7 3FG% on 6.3 attempts/game, 85.6 FT% on 6.4 attempts/game; G Matt Mobley (18.5 pts, 42.7 FG%, 38.3 3FG% on 8.3 attempts/game, 86.1 FT% on 4.7 attempts/game)</li>
</ul>
<div>
UCLA Bruins</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>81.9 points for (22nd), 76.3 points against (259th)</li>
<li>Pace: 125.3 total, 61.4 FGA for (39th), 63.9 FGA against (339th)</li>
<li>For: 51.3 2FG% (122nd), 38.3 3FG% (42nd), 0.359 FTA/FGA (107th)</li>
<li>Against: 47.4 2FG% (72nd), 34.9 3FG% (169th), 0.295 FTA/FGA (80th)</li>
<li>27.9% offensive rebounding (139th), 74.6% defensive rebounding (111th)</li>
<li>6.1% blocks (130th)</li>
<li>Leading scorer: G Aaron Holiday (20.3 pts, 46.3 FG%, 43.3 3FG% on 6.1 attempts/game, 82.6 FT% on 5.9 attempts/game)</li>
</ul>
</div>
Similar to the early game, this one features two teams who differ in pace by more than ten total possessions per game. Even considering that UCLA's Pac-12 schedule is generally more difficult than St. Bona's A10 schedule, I have a hard time picking against Adams and Mobley. They're efficient with their shots and they are both among the nation's best at the free throw line, which will help as the game comes down to the wire.<br />
<br />
The primary worry I would have with that, though, is UCLA's 7-footer, Thomas Welsh. He takes 10.5 shots a game (though 3.4 are from three-point range) and averages 10.7 rebounds. The Bonnies' tallest players are 6'10" Amadi Ikpeze (14.2 mins, 4.7 pts, 3.1 rebs, 0.5 blks) and 6'8" Josh Ayeni (14.6 mins, 5.3 pts, 2.8 rebs, 0.1 blks). I would bank on the Bruins running a lot of their offense through Welsh, even though he's only averaged 1.4 assists per game this season.<br />
<br />
To really fall off a cliff, here's who St. Bonaventure has faced this year with a similar profile to Welsh:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>UCLA's Welsh (for reference): 7'0", avg 13.0 pts/10.7 rebs/0.9 blks</li>
<li>Davidson's Peyton Aldridge: 6'8", avg 21.5 pts/7.8 rebs/0.6 blks, had lines of 25/9/0, then 45/12/2, then 24/7/0 in his three games against St. Bonaventure this year</li>
<li>Richmond's Grant Golden: 6'10", avg 15.6 pts/6.7 rebs/1.2 blks, put up 24/6/1 and 9/9/0 in his two games</li>
<li>SLU's Hasahn French: 6'7", avg 9.3 pts/7.1 rebs/1.8 blks, totaled 9/5/2 and 6/16/3 in his two games</li>
<li>VCU's Justin Tillman: 6'8", avg 18.9 pts/9.9 rebs/1.0 blks, finished with 20/10/2</li>
<li>URI's Cyril Langevine: 6'8", avg 5.9 pts/5.7 rebs/1.2 blks, finished with 2/9/2 and 10/10/3</li>
<li>SJU's Pierfrancesco Oliva: 6'8", avg 6.6 pts/6.7 rebs/0.7 blks, totaled 9/8/2 and 7/7/1</li>
<li>Cuse's Oshae Brissett: 6'8", avg 14.7 pts/8.8 rebs/0/7 blks, finished with 15/13/0</li>
<li>UB's Nick Perkins: 6'9", avg 16.6 pts/6.2 rebs/0.7 blks, put up 21/8/1</li>
</ul>
<div>
What does that tell us? Well, for starters, St. Bonaventure won 10 of the 14 games against the players listed above (the losses were to SJU once, tournament-bound URI once, and tournament-bound Davidson twice). I tend to lean toward discounting Davidson and Aldridge because he's undoubtedly their best player, whereas Welsh is undoubtedly a role player for UCLA. Everyone else seems to have put up numbers in line with their season averages (both in terms of points and rebounds), and the Bonnies won the vast majority of those games. My worry about Welsh is basically mitigated - I don't know how they do it, but St. Bonaventure has been able to overcome their size disadvantage. Especially considering that Bovada has the total at 155 points (right in their usual range), I like the Bonnies. </div>
<br />
<br />
<br />
points for, points against<br />Pace: total, FGA for, FGA against<br />For: 2FG%, 3FG%, FTA/FGA<br />Against: 2FG%, 3FG%, FTA/FGA<br />offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding<br />blocks<br />Leading scorer</div>
Jayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13632002302783356696noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8869544188552161021.post-7362378872933874882018-01-15T11:14:00.000-05:002018-01-15T11:14:35.157-05:00My Winter 2018 Flyers Top 25 Under 25 Ballot<br /><br />For reference, here's where I landed this past summer:<div>
1. Sean Couturier<br />2. Ivan Provorov<br />3. Shayne Gostisbehere<br />4. Travis Konecny<br />5. Scott Laughton<br />6. Travis Sanheim<br />7. Sam Morin<br />8. Phil Myers<br />9. Robert Hagg<br />10. Oskar Lindblom<br />11. Nolan Patrick<br />12. Mike Vecchione<br />13. Taylor Leier<br />14. Mikhail Vorobyov<br />15. Radel Fazleev<br />16. German Rubtsov<br />17. Nicolas Aube-Kubel<br />18. Mark Friedman<br />19. Wade Allison<br />20. Pascal Laberge<br />21. Isaac Ratcliffe<br />22. Anthony Stolarz<br />23. Alex Lyon<br />24. Carter Hart<br />25. Felix Sandstrom<br />26. David Kase<br />27. Kirill Ustimenko<br />28. Morgan Frost<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
I also cheated and made a second one based on slightly different criteria:</div>
<div>
1. Ivan Provorov<br />2. Sean Couturier<br />3. Shayne Gostisbehere<br />4. Nolan Patrick<br />5. Travis Konecny<br />6. Oskar Lindblom<br />7. Travis Sanheim<br />8. Sam Morin<br />9. Robert Hagg<br />10. Philippe Myers<br />11. Scott Laughton<br />12. Carter Hart<br />13. Felix Sandstrom<br />14. Taylor Leier<br />15. Mike Vecchione<br />16. Wade Allison<br />17. Isaac Ratcliffe<br />18. German Rubtsov<br />19. Nicolas Aube-Kubel<br />20. Anthony Stolarz<br />21. Pascal Laberge<br />22. Mikhail Vorobyov<br />23. Morgan Frost<br />24. Matt Strome<br />25. Alex Lyon</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
I was at least a little bit wrong on Lindblom and Allison, and I was SUPER fucking wrong on Frost. But, overall, I don't hate that list. We'll lose Couturier and Lyon to the age limit this time around, so let's jump right in.<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<div>
<b>1. Ivan Provorov</b></div>
<div>
<b>2. Shayne Gostisbehere</b></div>
<div>
These two are going to anchor the blueline for a very long time. Perhaps more importantly, though, the fact that the front office hit home runs with this pair means the rest of the blueline prospect pool is expendable if the right deal comes along. We can afford to lose Hagg, Morin, Myers, or even (gulp) Sanheim to improve the team in other areas if we need it. Although that might not even be necessary because....<br /><br /><b>3. Nolan Patrick</b></div>
<div>
<b>4. Travis Konecny</b></div>
<div>
<b>5. Scott Laughton</b></div>
<div>
<b>6. Oskar Lindblom</b></div>
<div>
<b>7. Morgan Frost</b></div>
<div>
<b>8. Wade Allison</b>...the Flyers have a SHIT TON of high-end forward prospects. That group of six projects to be a top-six center, a top-six winger, a middle-six center, a middle-six winger, and two additional pieces that could range from elite, All-Star caliber talents to "just okay" NHLers. Consider the fact that Taylor Leier was once our second-best forward prospect, and I'm certainly okay with this upgrade. </div>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>9. Carter Hart</b></div>
<div>
For a few editions of this list, there was a legitimate battle for the spot of Top Goalie Prospect between Hart, Felix Sandstrom, Anthony Stolarz, and maybe even Alex Lyon. That competition has ended, and Carter Hart walked out of the ring after Stone Cold Stunnering everyone in his path. The only reason I don't put him right behind Provorov-Gostisbehere-Patrick-Konecny is because goalies are weird. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>10. Travis Sanheim</b></div>
<div>
<b>11. Phil Myers</b></div>
<div>
<b>12. Robert Hagg</b></div>
<div>
<b>13. Sam Morin</b></div>
<div>
I rank the second tier of d-man prospects like this, though I would understand if your ordering of the four was different. Sanheim is the best and most complete, and I think the most frustrating part of this season so far is the coaching staff's criminal misuse of him. I prefer Myers next because of his handedness and his complete skill set. Hagg obviously has the trust of the coaches, which bumps him above Morin in my book. Though, to reference what I said in the Provorov/Ghost paragraph, if we had to trade a blueliner I'd be happiest to see Hagg go. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>12. Mike Vecchione</b></div>
<div>
<b>13. Taylor Leier</b></div>
<div>
<b>14. Mikhail Vorobyev</b></div>
<div>
<b>15. German Rubtsov</b></div>
<div>
<b>16. Nicolas Aube-Kubel</b></div>
<div>
Simply put, I have no doubt that any of this group of five could slot into one of Scott Laughton's wing spots on a nightly basis and <i>at least</i> hold their own at the NHL level. That Valtteri Filppula, Jori Lehtera, and Dale Weise combine to make more than $12 million this season makes me want to die. </div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>17. Anthony Stolarz</b></div>
<div>
<b>18. Felix Sandstrom</b></div>
<div>
I'm putting the goalies ahead of the rest of the babies, just because goalies are weird. Stolarz and Sandstrom have both fallen off the radar screen due to injuries and due to Carter Hart's otherworldly performance, but they are both still very highly-rated prospects. I dread the day we trade them both, end up getting nothing in return, and then have to watch them anchor their new teams in the Stanley Cup Final. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>19. Mark Friedman</b></div>
<div>
The forgotten member of the defensive prospects, it's a real credit to the organization that he is this far down the list. He's small but that has yet to stop him, and I imagine he'll see time as an injury call-up once Myers and Morin make the jump from the AHL to the NHL rotation. </div>
<div>
<b><br /></b></div>
<b>20. Tyrell Goulbourne</b><div>
He's on the NHL team already, so that's good? To be honest I completely forgot about him until I looked up the salary figures for the three overpaid vets. This 20 spot feels right for him.<br /><div>
<b><br /></b></div>
<div>
<b>21. Isaac Ratcliffe</b></div>
<div>
<b>22. Radel Fazleev</b></div>
<div>
<b>23. Matt Strome</b></div>
<div>
<b>24. Pascal Laberge</b></div>
<div>
I am sad to see Laberge fall off as much as he has. He was primed to have a Frost-like breakout season, and then his skull was obliterated on a cheapshot and he hasn't been the same since. Concussions are wonky, and you never know how an individual brain is going to respond. But here's hoping that he stabilizes and gets back to the high-end prospect he was two years ago. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>25. Kirill Ustimenko</b><br />He was the Rinaldo pick, so he's going to lock up this 25th spot until his 25th birthday in January 2024. </div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Players I left off/completely forgot about:</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>Terrance Amorosa - No qualms. </li>
<li>Cole Bardreau - Not a big deal. </li>
<li>David Bernhardt - Feels like he's probably in the 25-30 range. </li>
<li>Connor Bunnaman - Damn, should have had him in that 20-24 group of forwards.</li>
<li>Noah Cates - He's really young, right?</li>
<li>David Drake - No qualms. </li>
<li>Ivan Fedotov - We have too many goalies. </li>
<li>Linus Hogberg - He continued the annual tradition of WJC coaches under-utilizing Flyers prospects, which sadly probably hurt my opinion of him. </li>
<li>Wyatt Kalynuk - No qualms. </li>
<li>David Kase - He's another guy that probably belongs in that last tier of forwards.</li>
<li>Tanner Laczynski - Shit. He's probably done enough to fall just behind that Vecchione-Rubtsov tier. </li>
<li>Ollie Lycksell - Good try BSH, that's a fake name. </li>
<li>Cooper Marody - Whoops! Toss him in the Ratcliff-Strome range.</li>
<li>Danick Marter - Crap, I did a terrible job. He's in that 12-16 range for sure. </li>
<li>Anthony Salinitri - Meh, no qualms. </li>
<li>Maksim Sushko - I literally just followed him on Twitter this morning because I like him so much. He's gotta go in that 20-ish range. </li>
<li>Carsen Twarynski - We have too many damn prospects. </li>
<li>Brendan Warren - No qualms. </li>
<li>Reese Willcox - No qualms. </li>
</ul>
<div>
<div>
<div>
<div>
<b>My Final Corrected Updated Ranking:</b></div>
<div>
<b>1. Ivan Provorov</b></div>
<div>
<b>2. Shayne Gostisbehere</b></div>
<div>
<b>3. Nolan Patrick</b></div>
<div>
<b>4. Travis Konecny</b></div>
<div>
<b>5. Scott Laughton</b></div>
<div>
<b>6. Oskar Lindblom</b></div>
<div>
<b>7. Morgan Frost</b></div>
<div>
<b>8. Wade Allison</b></div>
</div>
<div>
<b>9. Carter Hart</b></div>
<div>
<b>10. Travis Sanheim</b></div>
<div>
<b>11. Phil Myers</b></div>
<div>
<b>12. Robert Hagg</b></div>
<div>
<b>13. Sam Morin</b></div>
<div>
<b>14. Danick Martel</b></div>
<div>
<b>15. Mike Vecchione</b></div>
<div>
<b>16. Taylor Leier</b></div>
<div>
<b>17. Mikhail Vorobyev</b></div>
<div>
<b>18. German Rubtsov</b></div>
<div>
<b>19. Nicolas Aube-Kubel</b></div>
</div>
<div>
<b>20. Tanner Laczynski</b></div>
<div>
<b>21. Anthony Stolarz</b></div>
<div>
<b>22. Felix Sandstrom</b></div>
<div>
<b>23. Mark Friedman</b></div>
</div>
<div>
<b>24. Maksim Sushko</b><div>
<div>
<b>25. Isaac Ratcliffe</b></div>
<div>
<b>Honorable Mention (in order from 26-33)</b></div>
<div>
<b>Tyrell Goulbourne</b></div>
<div>
<b>Radel Fazleev</b></div>
<div>
<b>Connor Bunnaman</b></div>
<div>
<b>Matt Strome</b></div>
<div>
<b>David Kase</b></div>
<div>
<b>Pascal Laberge</b></div>
<div>
<b>Cooper Marody</b></div>
<div>
<b>Kirill Ustimenko</b></div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
Jayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13632002302783356696noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8869544188552161021.post-3554500842947038092017-11-28T11:44:00.003-05:002017-11-28T11:44:55.338-05:00Let's Make Some Money On The B1G/ACC Challenge TonightCollege basketball is the best. It's better than NBA because the players are just bad enough to be entertaining and they can play a much more physical game. It's better than any kind of football because football is a stupid sport. It's better than the ice sport because the Flyers have drained all of the fun out of hockey for everyone in Philadelphia.<br />
<br />
The only negative about college basketball is the fact that quite literally everything about it is a money grab for the NCAA and its partners. Take, for example, the currently-ongoing Big Ten/ACC Challenge. Nobody gives a shit about the rivalry between these two conferences, but they can throw half a dozen decent teams on the ESPN family of networks and sheep like us will gobble it up. I can't wait to Experience The Childlike Excitement Of The Holidays With Lexus every 12 minutes for four hours tonight!<br />
<br />
But if the NCAA and ESPN can make a bunch of money off of hokey 'challenges' like this one, we might as well try to make some too. There are five games tonight:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>Florida State (-5) at Rutgers, 7pm</li>
<li>Northwestern (-1.5) at Georgia Tech, 7pm</li>
<li>#17 Louisville at Purdue (-8), 8pm</li>
<li>Illinois at Wake Forest (-2.5), 9pm</li>
<li>Iowa at Virginia Tech (-9.5), 9pm</li>
</ul>
<div>
I would think they probably hoped to have more than one ranked team playing tonight, but this whole challenge is really just the undercard for #5 Notre Dame at #3 Michigan State on Thursday. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
We will start by looking at a matchup of undefeated teams who haven't been making too much noise nationally.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><u>Florida State at Rutgers</u></b></div>
<div>
<b><u><br /></u></b></div>
<div>
As I usually do, we'll start by looking at how teams score. TeamRankings has a great selection of stats to reference, and I like to compare percentage of points that teams get from two-point shots, three-point shots, and free throws. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Florida State scores their points via:</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>56.7% from two-pointers (39th-most) out of 351 teams)</li>
<li>31.0% from three-pointers (173rd-most)</li>
<li>12.3% from free throws (343rd-most)</li>
</ul>
<div>
So we have a Seminoles team that is extremely reliant on two-point shots and extremely Not Reliant on free throws. They're almost directly in the middle of the road on three-point reliance. How does Rutgers defend these different types of shots?</div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Rutgers' opponents shoot:</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>38.8% on two-pointers (8th-lowest)</li>
<li>29.3% on three-pointers (44th-lowest)</li>
<li>9.4 free throw attempts per game (lowest in the country)</li>
</ul>
<div>
It is extremely important to remember that neither of these teams have played anybody good yet, but that tends to be the case for most teams at this point in the season. Rutgers' defense on two-point shots is going to be an issue for FSU, and Rutgers' discipline might mean FSU only shoots ten free throws tonight. Relatively speaking, Rutgers' weakness is its three point defense - but FSU is shooting just 35.6% from three this season (151st in the country). </div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
I would be willing to be that Florida State will finish the game with considerably less than their season average 91.0 points per game. But what about the other side?</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Rutgers scores their points via:</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>59.0% from two-pointers (16th-most)</li>
<li>22.3% from three-pointers (323rd-most)</li>
<li>18.1% from free throws (234th-most)</li>
</ul>
<div>
And Florida State's opponents shoot:</div>
</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>41.2% on two-pointers (22nd-lowest)</li>
<li>30.5% on three-pointers (61st-lowest)</li>
<li>18.6 free throw attempts per game (118th-lowest)</li>
</ul>
<div>
So I would also be willing to bet that Rutgers will finish below their season average, which is a paltry 69.8 points. I expect both teams to miss their numbers, but the million dollar question is by how much each will miss. Bovada has the team lines set as follows:</div>
</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>FSU: over/under 72.5 points, 18.5 points below their season average</li>
<li>Rutgers: over/under 67.5 points, 2.3 points below their season average</li>
</ul>
<div>
Without breaking down all six of the teams that FSU has played and all five of the teams that Rutgers has played, we can't know why the discrepancy there is so big. The largest difference, to my eye, is Rutgers not allowing free throws. But Florida State isn't reliant on them that much, certainly not 18.5 points worth. </div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
The Play: FSU -5 and FSU team total over 72.5</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><u>Louisville at Purdue & Iowa at Virginia Tech</u></b></div>
<div>
<b><u><br /></u></b></div>
<div>
I'm lumping these two together because Purdue is favored by 8.5, Virginia Tech is favored by 9.5, and I am as addicted to teasers as I am to the Oxford comma. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
The first game is a great illustration of why early season rankings don't mean a goddamn thing. Purdue is unranked, but they beat a decent Marquette team, lost to decent Tennessee and Western Kentucky teams, and beat (what was supposed to be) a great Arizona team. Louisville is ranked #17 due to their 4-0 run through George Mason, Omaha, Southern Illinois, and St. Francis (PA). </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Those schedule discrepancies basically means we can't really analyze season statistics for this matchup. Purdue is going to look worse because they've played four actual games, and Louisville is going to look great because they've been beating up on fraternity intramural teams. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
This is exactly why I'm addicted to teasers. I don't know anything, and I'm actively not going to learn anything before I bet, but Vegas says Purdue is 8.5 points better so we'll tease away half of that and get a nice easy spread to cover. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
You know what? I'm going to do the same exact thing for the second game. I'm not even going to look up the ESPN schedules for Iowa and Virginia Tech to see who they have played so far. Just throw the favorite right into the goddamn tease bag baby!</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
The Play: Five Point Teaser (-120) - Purdue -3 & Va Tech -4.5</div>
Jayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13632002302783356696noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8869544188552161021.post-77317060957179845822017-10-30T15:51:00.001-04:002017-10-30T15:51:14.306-04:00Are The 2017 Eagles Better Than The 2004 Eagles?<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en">
<div dir="ltr" lang="en">
Well... The Eagles are 7-1 for the first time since the 2004 regular season when they went to the Super Bowl. Is this roster better? Worse?</div>
— 975TheFanatic (@975TheFanatic) <a href="https://twitter.com/975TheFanatic/status/925063024741896198?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 30, 2017</a></blockquote>
Looks like we're headed for a... breakdown! (RIP Tom Petty)<br />
<br />
<b>Quarterback: Donovan McNabb vs. Carson Wentz</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Look man, I don't want to disparage McNabb's career. He gets way too much shit from Eagles fans because he never led us all the way to a Lombardi Trophy, but he's the most accomplished Eagles quarterback since Norm Van Brocklin.<br />
<br />
That said, I think we really might have something special on our hands with Carson Wentz. Throw out the physical tools - which he obviously has - because what really excites me about Wentz is his attitude.<br />
<br />
His <a href="https://www.theplayerstribune.com/carson-wentz-north-dakota-state-nfl-draft/">Players Tribune</a> piece is a great example of his demeanor as a player. He welcomes contact, he doesn't expect to be treated special because he's a quarterback, and I don't think I've seen him complain on the field during his entire career.<br />
<br />
The other obvious aspect of Wentz that we need to address is his religion. I'm not a very religious person, and it generally annoys me if athletes are especially in-your-face about their beliefs. Wentz is, unquestionably, a religious person - but I never feel like he's forcing it on anybody. I think he genuinely just wants to believe what he believes, and so far that has manifested itself in a team without distraction or controversy. That type of locker room leadership, especially as this magical soon-to-be-25-year-old ages, should draw comparisons to another NFL locker room with a steady leader at the helm.<br />
<br />
<b>Running Backs: Brian Westbrook, Dorsey Levens, Reno Mahe vs. LeGarrette Blount, Weldell Smallwood, Corey Clement</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
I love Brian Westbrook. It's probably a little bit of a Villanova thing, but he's probably my favorite Eagle from that early-2000's team. But I think the overall talent level of Blount-Smallwood-Clement is just too much for Dorsey Levens and Reno Mahe to match up with.<br />
<br />
Maybe that 2003 team with Correll Buckhalter and Duce Staley could match up, but not the 2004 version.<br />
<br />
<b>Receivers: Terrell Owens, Todd Pinkston, LJ Smith, Chad Lewis, Freddie Mitchell, Greg Lewis vs. Zach Ertz, Alshon Jeffeey, Nelson Agholor, Torrey Smith, Trey Burton, Mack Hollins</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
TO was fifth in the league in receiving yards per game in 2004 and third in the league in receiving touchdowns. Pinkston was third in the league with 18.8 yards per reception. LJ Smith scored five touchdowns. Freddie Mitchell.. uh... well okay let's move on to this year's team.<br />
<br />
Ertz is seventh among all players (not just tight ends) in receptions, eighth in receiving yards, and third in receiving touchdowns. Agholor is tied for sixth in receiving touchdowns. The other four from this year's team group nicely into two categories: veterans who will be asked to come up big down the stretch (Jeffery and Smith) and <strike>rookies</strike> young guys who will be expected contribute for years to come.<br />
<br />
Even as dominant as TO was, I think Ertz is going to match his 77 catches, 1200 yards, and 14 touchdowns. If you double his line from the first eight games, he's on pace for 86 catches, 1056 yards, and 12 touchdowns. Even if TO maintains a slight edge, the 2017 Eagles are extremely deep from spots 2-6 - the 2004 Eagles were.... not.<br />
<br />
<b>Kicker: David Akers vs. Jake Elliott</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
We all love David Akers, and rightfully so. In his 12 years as an Eagle, he was 441 for 447 on extra points and 294 for 357 on field goals (including 93.1% on attempts within 40 yards). BUT (and this is a big one) he didn't kick his 63-yard career-long until he was with the 49ers.<br />
<br />
Jake Elliott kicked his 61-yard bomb right at home at Lincoln Financial Field, and Joel Embiid was there to witness it.<br />
<br />
I'm going to call this one a tie for now, but if Elliott hits another bomb with a game on the line - or, dear lord, in the playoffs - I'm reserving my right to swing in his favor.<br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Defensive Line: Corey Simon, </b><b>Hugh Douglas, Jevon Kearse, </b><b>Sam Rayburn, Darwin Walker, Hollis Thomas, Derrick Burgess, vs. Fletcher Cox, Timmy Jernigan, Vinny Curry, Brandon Graham, Derek Barnett, Chris Long, Beau Allen</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
It's this year's team and I'm sure there is plenty of material for you to read if you don't believe me. Perhaps you might like <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/2017/07/12/ranking-defensive-linemen-tackles-ends-team-texans-giants/464850001/">this preseason USA Today article</a> where the Birds' d-line was ranked third-best in the league. Or there's <a href="http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/eagles/philadelphia-eagles-defensive-line-dominant-fletcher-cox-brandon-graham-20170911.html">this Jeff McLane piece</a> after the season opener. You might even like <a href="http://www.nbcsports.com/philadelphia/eagles/eagles-defensive-line-bullies-rookie-qb-beathard-blowout-win">this piece from Dave Zangaro</a> following yesterday's trouncing of the 49ers. <br />
<br />
Yeah, it's the 2017 version.<br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Linebackers: Jeremiah Trotter, Dhani Jones, Ike Reese, Keith Adams, Mark Simoneau vs. Nigel Bradham, Najee Goode, Joe Walker, </b><b>Kamu Grugier-Hill</b><br />
<b>Defensive Backs: Brian Dawkins, Sheldon Brown, Lito Sheppard, Michael Lewis, Roderick Hood vs. Malcolm Jenkins, Jalen Mills, Patrick Robinson, Rasul Douglas, Rodney McLeod</b><br />
<br />
I'm going to lump these two groups together because I essentially feel exactly the same about both. This year's units are certainly fine. I really like Jalen Mills, and the linebackers and defensive backs have been solid (at least) to my eyes basically all season. They certainly get passing grades, especially considering the losses of presumed starters Ronald Darby and Jordan Hicks.<br />
<br />
But man, those 2004 units were incredible. Trotter and Jones were two of the best (and most likable) Eagles linebackers ever. That secondary is insane, and the only reason they don't get remembered more vividly is because they followed the team that lined up Dawkins-Sheppard-Lewis-Brown-Troy Vincent-Bobby Taylor, which is quite possibly the best defensive backfield of all time.<br />
<br />
<b>Final Verdict</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Both teams are very good, and they are both chock full of likable players who are also extremely talented. Thank you for reading.<br />
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>
Jayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13632002302783356696noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8869544188552161021.post-59786050326604021012017-10-24T16:47:00.000-04:002017-10-24T16:47:56.298-04:00My Idea: The NHL Young Guns All Star GameDespite the fact that we are not all that far into this NHL season, today's post Down Goes Brown (<a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/goes-brown-10-radical-nhl-star-game-fixes/">link here</a>) focused on the mid-season All Star game. Specifically, he provided ten suggestions for revamping the ASG (and the weekend as a whole) to make it more interesting.<br />
<br />
His final suggestion, and to my eyes the one he prefers the most, is a callback to everyone's favorite team from last Fall's World Cup of Hockey:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i>The idea: A “Young Guns” all-star game</i> </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i>You remember the Young Guns, a.k.a. Team North America from last year’s World Cup? Bunch of 23-and-under kids, stole the show by being ridiculously fun, and ended up as basically the only thing anyone remembers from that tournament? Let’s turn the all-star weekend over to them.</i> </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i>Pros: <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/players/connor-mcdavid/878032"></a>Connor McDavid vs. <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/players/auston-matthews/920210"></a>Auston Matthews. <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/players/jack-eichel/878033"></a>Jack Eichel on a line with <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/players/nolan-patrick/1057100"></a>Nolan Patrick. And unlike the World Cup, you’d get all the young European stars, too, so <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/players/patrik-laine/920211"></a>Patrik Laine, <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/players/david-pastrnak/831092"></a>David Pastrnak, <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/players/leon-draisaitl/831068"></a>Leon Draisaitl and friends get to join in the fun.</i> </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i>The World Cup young guns were all skill and speed, exactly the sort of game that the NHL should want to showcase at a marquee event. You wouldn’t get the same effort level in an all-star game, of course, but these guys are young enough that they’d probably want to put on a show. And since most of them are still on entry-level contracts, the cash bonus the NHL offers to the winning team might actually matter to them.</i> </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i>Cons: I’m not completely sure there is one. Sure, you’d lose out on the Crosbys and Ovechkins, but those guys don’t want to play in these things, anyway. The veterans have earned their weekend off. Let the kids have the spotlight, and spend a few days really selling the future of the sport.</i> </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i>Bottom line: Make it happen, NHL.</i></blockquote>
I think there is a lot to like with the Young Guns All Star Game. You could still include the older (or "in their prime") stars as part of the Skills Competition, as coach(es) for each youth team, or as announcers or interviewers. We are also probably going to have to dip into that pool to get some goalies. But the actual game seems like it'd benefit from this format in two ways:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>Maybe I'm just talking out of my ass, but I think the notion is kids have fresher legs and more energy than grizzled vets. And a great performance on a national stage does a lot more for a player like Nolan Patrick than it would for last year's ASG MVP Wayne Simmonds. One key issue with any league's All Star Game is a lack of effort, and the youth movement should help with that.</li>
<li>Similar to the national exposure point in that last bullet, a piece of a $1 million prize pool means more to a kid making (at most) $925,000 in salary than it does to a guy who has been making $5 million or $7 million or $10.5 million for almost a decade. </li>
</ul>
<div>
One issue that would arise here, if we're banking on the fact that a full-year's-salary-sized performance bonus would be a key reason for effort, is 22- and 23-year-old players who have signed real NHL contracts. Think Shayne Gostisbehere's new $4.5 million deal or the $12.5 million behemoth that Connor McDavid is going to start next season. Those guys have shined, and are getting paid for it. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
I want my Young Gun All Star Game to be guys who are hungry for the Discover Card Grand Prize (TM). I want these games to mean a new car for the player and his mom, and a Caribbean vacation for him and his friend and/or girlfriend. I want every goal allowed by a lazy backcheck to be met with a furious wrath on the bench. And so, I think we have to limit these rosters to guys who are playing on entry-level contracts during the season in which the ASG takes place. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Without further ado (you knew I was going here, right?) let's see who'd make up each division's roster. Oh and by the way we're keeping the 3-on-3 format because it fuckin' ROCKS. That means we need 6-7 forwards, 3-4 defensemen, and a goalie per team - plus an All Star Coach (and Assistant Coach), which I will determine based on a hypothetical NHL.com fan vote. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><u>Metropolitan Division</u></b></div>
<div>
<b><br /></b></div>
<div>
<u>Forwards:</u></div>
<div>
Sonny Milano, Columbus Blue Jackets</div>
<div>
<div>
Nico Hischier, New Jersey Devils</div>
<div>
Matthew Barzal, New York Islanders</div>
<div>
Pavel Buchnevich, New York Rangers</div>
<div>
Nolan Patrick, Philadelphia Flyers</div>
<div>
Jake Guentzel, Pittsburgh Penguins</div>
<div>
Jakub Vrana, Washington Capitals</div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<u>Defensemen:</u></div>
<div>
Zach Werenski, Columbus Blue Jackets</div>
<div>
Will Butcher, New Jersey Devils</div>
<div>
Ivan Provorov, Philadelphia Flyers</div>
<div>
Noah Hanifin, Carolina Hurricanes</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<u>Honorable Mention:</u></div>
<div>
Sebastian Aho, Carolina Hurricanes</div>
<div>
Brett Pesce, Carolina Hurricanes</div>
<div>
Jacob Slavin, Carolina Hurricanes</div>
<div>
Oliver Bjorkstrand, Columbus Blue Jackets</div>
<div>
<div>
Miles Wood, New Jersey Devils</div>
<div>
Jesper Bratt, New Jersey Devils</div>
</div>
<div>
<div>
Joshua Ho-Sang, New York Islanders</div>
</div>
<div>
Jimmy Vesey, New York Rangers</div>
<div>
<div>
Brady Skjei, New York Rangers</div>
</div>
<div>
Travis Konecny, Philadelphia Flyers</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Some notes:</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>That Carolina blue line is crazy. You could make the case for any one of Hanifin/Pesce/Slavin, but I went with Hanifin because he leads that trio in points, and because I think he's going to end up being the best of the bunch. </li>
<li>On the other end up the spectrum, Washington's only two potential selections were Vrana and Madison Bowey. Unrelated but kind of related, Filip Forsberg would not qualify for this tournament because he recently earned a contract worth $6 million per year. </li>
<li>The Penguins, like the Capitals, do not have a ton of options for this ELC tournament. But Guentzel is a slam-dunk selection. </li>
<li>For the Blue Jackets (Milano-Bjorkstrand), Islanders (Barzal-Ho-Sang), and Rangers (Buchnevich-Vesey), I had to make a choice between two deserving candidates. I tried to roll a bunch of quick research into each pick, and I focused primarily on scoring and usage. </li>
<li>Coach: Wayne Simmonds, as voted by NHL fans</li>
<li>Assistant Coach: Alex Ovechkin (substitute for Sidney Crosby, who was voted second behind Simmonds by fans but declined the position due to a lower body injury (full diaper))</li>
</ul>
<div>
<b><u>Atlantic Division</u></b></div>
</div>
<div>
<b><u><br /></u></b></div>
<div>
<u>Forwards</u></div>
<div>
Jack Eichel, Buffalo Sabres</div>
<div>
Dylan Larkin, Detroit Red Wings</div>
<div>
Jared McCann, Florida Panthers</div>
<div>
Brayden Point, Tampa Bay Lightning</div>
<div>
<div>
Auston Matthews, Toronto Maple Leafs</div>
<div>
Mitch Marner, Toronto Maple Leafs</div>
<div>
William Nylander, Toronto Maple Leafs</div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<u>Defensemen</u></div>
<div>
Charlie McAvoy, Boston Bruins</div>
<div>
Victor Mete, Montreal Canadiens</div>
<div>
Colin White, Ottawa Senators</div>
<div>
Mikhail Sergachev, Tampa Bay Lightning</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<u>Honorable Mention</u></div>
<div>
Anders Bjork, Boston Bruins</div>
<div>
Brandon Carlo, Boston Bruins</div>
<div>
Sam Reinhart, Buffalo Sabres</div>
<div>
Justin Bailey, Buffalo Sabres</div>
<div>
Anthony Mantha, Detroit Red Wings</div>
<div>
Logan Brown, Ottawa Senators</div>
<div>
<span class="name-col__firstName" style="box-sizing: inherit; display: inline;">Artturi</span> Lehkonen, Montreal Canadiens</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Some notes:</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>For Ottawa, your options are White (who is currently injured and was just able to start practicing without a non-contact jersey this week) or Brown (who has one assist in three games this year). Not great!</li>
<li>You can't possibly make this Atlantic roster without including all three Leafs boys. You just can't. </li>
</ul>
<div>
Western Conference coming tomorrow. </div>
</div>
Jayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13632002302783356696noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8869544188552161021.post-28242513534951083772017-10-20T09:20:00.002-04:002017-10-20T09:20:16.962-04:00Hockeyviz Recap - Flyers vs. PredatorsFor whatever reason, the Hockeyviz charts and visuals for last night's abysmal Flyers game really got me juiced up this morning. There are a couple of quick thoughts that I have that I believe can be accurately illustrated by Micah's work. Let's jump in.<br />
<br />
<b><u>Player Usage</u></b><br />
<br />
<img height="640" src="http://hockeyviz.com/static/img/game/usage/1718/playerUsage-2017020097-PHI.png" width="527" /><br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>The Lehtera-Filppula line and the MacDonald pair were on the ice for a goal against? Color me shocked. To be fair, it was an offensive zone turnover and then a goal on the rush, but MacDonald played the rush worse than my girlfriend playing NHL18 and Lehtera was still on Nashville's side of the ice when the puck entered the net. </li>
<li>Dale Weise played on the power play! Our pets heads are falling off and we are only on the second bullet point. </li>
<li>MacDonald played the fewest 5-on-5 (and total) minutes out of all the defensemen. I take that as an unquestionably good sign. </li>
</ul>
<div>
<b><u>Zone Deployment</u></b></div>
<div>
<img src="http://hockeyviz.com/static/img/game/zoneDeployment/1718/deployment-2017020097-PHI.png" /></div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>Why in the fucking shitting heck are we burying the Giroux-Couturier-Voracek line like this? They should be given EVERY offensive zone draw following a whistle. Literally every single time one of the shittier lines can force the opposing goalie to cover the puck, Hakstol should send out 28-14-93 with Ghost and Hagg (or Sanheim) so we can try to score some freakin' goals. </li>
</ul>
</div>
Jayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13632002302783356696noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8869544188552161021.post-52502435425579581542017-10-17T10:31:00.001-04:002017-10-17T10:31:44.266-04:00'Who Should We Bet On In College Basketball?' Week - Part One, Most Talented DuosAs college basketball season approaches, we have two things to really research.<br />
<br />
The first question is extremely easy to answer: Is Villanova going to be good? The answer is yes, they'll win the Big East (again) and their tournament run will depend on how good Super Freshman Omari Spellman ends up being.<br />
<br />
The second questions is arguably even more important, though: Who should we be betting on? With college basketball, it always seems to be a 'shoot from the hip' situation. You can dig deep into advanced metrics on <a href="https://www.teamrankings.com/ncb/stats/">https://www.teamrankings.com/ncb/stats/</a>, but really the most fun way to gamble is just to know which teams are good and then win money on them.<br />
<br />
With that in mind, this week happens to be "Week of College Basketball Lists" on Barstool, hosted by your boy Reags. Yesterday's entry was the <a href="https://www.barstoolsports.com/barstoolu/week-of-college-basketball-lists-50-best-players-in-the-country-this-year/?_branch_match_id=448806765623899051">50 best players in the country</a>, which will allow us to cherry pick teams with two (and even three) elite players. Throw them in your memory bank and file them under "Good", and let's ride.<br />
<br />
(Note: I'm pulling the Honorable Mentions from Reags' Twitter replies to people who asked him about certain players.)<br />
<br />
<b>Duke - #4 Marvin Bagley, #9 Grayson Allen, #25 Trevon Duval, #50 Wendell Carter</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
This is just plain unfair. Duke is returning Allen (a National Player of the Year contender) and surrounding him with:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>Duval (the top point guard in this year's freshman class)</li>
<li>Carter (the second-best power forward and fifth overall recruit in the class), </li>
<li>Bagley (the top power forward and top overall player in the entire class)</li>
</ul>
And that doesn't even include Gary Trent, who is the highest-ranked shooting guard in this year's incoming freshman class. Duke has the potential to be fucking sick this year.<br />
<br />
<b>Arizona - #6 Allonzo Trier, #15 DeAndre Ayton</b><br />
<br />
<b>Michigan State - #1 Miles Bridges, #31 Nick Ward</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Villanova - #2 Jalen Brunson, #43 Donte Divincenzo</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Seton Hall - #5 Angel Delgado, #42 Khadeen Carrington</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Notre Dame - #10 Bonzie Colson, #28 Matt Farrell</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Xavier - #7 Trevon Bluiett, #44 JP Macura</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Kentucky - #19 Hami Diallo, #29 Kevin Knox</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>USC - #24 Chime Metu, #27 Bennie Boatwright</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Cincinnati - #30 Jacob Evans, HM Gary Clark</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Maryland - #35 Justin Jackson, HM Kevin Huerter</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Providence - HM Kyron Cartwright, HM Rodney Bullock</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<br />
<b><br /></b>
<b><br /></b>
<b><br /></b>Jayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13632002302783356696noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8869544188552161021.post-11252238092367166492017-10-03T14:25:00.000-04:002017-10-03T14:25:00.277-04:00The Bruins Did Not Do A Great Job With Their First Round Picks From 2005-2013<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en">
<div dir="ltr" lang="en">
With Subban getting claimed, EVERY first selection that the Bruins made between the 2005 and 2013 NHL drafts now play for another team <a href="https://t.co/a3fqvP71FH">pic.twitter.com/a3fqvP71FH</a></div>
— Dan Bahl (@danbahl) <a href="https://twitter.com/danbahl/status/915249483243499520?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 3, 2017</a></blockquote>
<img height="640" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DLOejSdWsAE679P.jpg" width="360" /><br />
<br />
<b><u>Matt Lashoff, drafted 22nd overall in 2005</u></b><br />
<br />
<i>Totals with Bruins: 46 games played over three seasons, 1 goal, 15 assists, 16 points</i><br />On March 4, 2009, at the trade deadline for the 2008–09 season, Lashoff was traded by the Bruins, along with Mārtiņš Karsums, to the Tampa Bay Lightning for Mark Recchi and a 2010 second round draft pick.<br /><br />Recchi played the rest of that season and two more for Boston, totaling 180 games, 42 goals, and 107 points. That run culminated in the 2011 Stanley Cup, and then he hung up his skates<br /><br /> Boston flipped that second-rounder to Florida for Dennis Seidenberg and Matt Bartkowski. The Panthers used it to draft defenseman Alex Petrovic (one pick before the Hurricanes selected Justin Faulk).<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Seidenberg played 400 games for the Bruins over seven seasons (including the 2011 Cup year). Bartkowski played in 131 games over five seasons, but totaled zero goals and just 24 assists. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Still in Boston: Nothing. Recchi is retired, Seidenberg is an Islander, and Bartkowski is a Flame. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><u>Phil Kessel, drafted 5th overall in 2006</u></b></div>
<div>
<b><u><br /></u></b></div>
<div>
<i>Totals with Bruins: 222 games over three seasons, 66 goals, 60 assists, 126 points</i></div>
<div>
<i><br /></i></div>
On September 18, 2009, the Bruins traded Kessel to the Toronto Maple Leafs in exchange for a 2010 first-round pick (Tyler Seguin), a 2010 second-round pick (Jared Knight) and a 2011 first-round pick (Dougie Hamilton). <div>
<br /><div>
Put a pin in Seguin and Hamilton, because we're obviously going to see them in a bit. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Knight never played an NHL game - he was in Denmark last season and I'm not going to dig any further to see where he is this season. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Still in Boston: We'll circle back here in the Seguin/Hamilton sections.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><u>Zach Hamill, drafted 8th overall in 2007</u></b></div>
<div>
<b><u><br /></u></b></div>
<div>
<i>Totals with Bruins: 20 games over three seasons, 0 goals, 4 points</i></div>
<br />On February 6, 2012, the Boston Bruins placed Hamill on waivers, and he was sent down to Boston's American Hockey League (AHL) affiliate, Providence Bruins, after he cleared waivers on February 7, 2012. On May 26, 2012 he was traded by the Bruins to the Washington Capitals for forward Chris Bourque.<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
It was cool that Ray Bourque's son got to play for Boston. But he only actually played 18 games (1 goal and 3 assists), and then he became a free agent. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Still in Boston: Nothing</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><u>Joe Colborne, drafted 16th overall in 2008</u></b></div>
<div>
<b><u><br /></u></b></div>
<div>
<i>Totals with Bruins: 0 games played</i></div>
<br />Boston dealt him to the Toronto Maple Leafs. Colborne was sent, along with two draft picks, to the Maple Leafs in exchange for Tomáš Kaberle on February 19, 2011. Kaberle was essentially a deadline rental, tallying 1 goal and 8 assists in the 24 regular season games he played that year. And then, of course, there was the whole Stanley Cup run where he had 11 assists in 25 games. He left the following summer. <div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><u>Jordan Carron, drafted 25th overall in 2009</u></b></div>
<div>
<b><u><br /></u></b></div>
<div>
<i>Totals with Bruins: 134 games over five seasons, 12 goals, 16 assists, 28 points</i></div>
</div>
<div>
<i><br /></i></div>
On March 2, 2015, he was traded along with a sixth round selection in 2016 to the Colorado Avalanche in exchange for Maxime Talbot and Paul Carey.<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Talbot (sort of) played two seasons with the Bruins, but he only totaled 56 games, 2 goals, and 10 points. Carey never played an NHL game for the Bruins. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Still in Boston: Nothing</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><u>Tyler Seguin, drafted 2nd overall in 2010</u></b></div>
<div>
<b><u><br /></u></b></div>
<div>
<i>Totals with Bruins: 203 games over three seasons, 56 goals, 65 assists, 121 points</i></div>
<br />On July 4, 2013, Boston traded Seguin, along with Rich Peverley and Ryan Button, to the Dallas Stars in exchange for Loui Eriksson, Reilly Smith, Matt Fraser and Joe Morrow.<br /><br />Eriksson played three seasons in Boston and scored 147 points in 224 games. Then he left as a free agent and is now a Vancouver Canuck. <div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Smith played two seasons in Boston, totaling 33 goals and 91 points. He was traded to Florida for Jimmy Hayes, who scored 15 goals and 34 points as a Bruin in two seasons - he was so bad that they bought out the final year of his deal and he's a New Jersey Devil now. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Fraser played 38 games as a Bruin and scored five goals (with zero assists - selfish!). Boston waived him and he was claimed by Edmonton. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Morrow played sparingly for three seasons (totaling 65 games and 9 points), and then left as a free agent to sign with Montreal. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Still in Boston: Nothing</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><u>Dougie Hamilton, drafted 9th overall in 2011</u></b></div>
<div>
<b><u><br /></u></b></div>
<div>
<i>Totals with Bruins: 178 games over three seasons, 22 goals, 61 assists, 83 points</i></div>
<br />On June 26, 2015, during the 2015 NHL Entry Draft, Hamilton was traded to the Calgary Flames in exchange for a first-round draft pick (Zachary Senyshyn) and two second-round picks (Jakob Forsbacka-Karlsson and Jérémy Lauzon), all in the 2015 Draft.<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Finally we get some guys who are still with the team! Although I guess we should use "with the team" lightly, because all three of them will start this season with the AHL Providence Bruins. I'll reference Stanley Cup Of Chowder's Top 25 Under 25 Rankings here: JFK was ranked 5th, Senyshyn was 11th, and Lauzon was not ranked. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Still in Boston: JFK, Senyshyn, Lauzon</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><u>Malcolm Subban, drafted 24th overall in 2012</u></b></div>
<div>
<b><u><br /></u></b></div>
<div>
<i>Totals with Bruins: 2 games, 0-2 record, .727 save percentage</i></div>
<div>
<i><br /></i></div>
<div>
As Dan referenced in his tweet, Subban was claimed by Vegas this afternoon. For what it's worth, SCOC had him at #24 in their ranking. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Still in Boston: Nothing</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><u>Linus Arnesson, drafted 60th overall in 2013</u></b></div>
<div>
<b><u><br /></u></b></div>
<div>
<i>Totals with Bruins: 0 games played</i></div>
<div>
<i><br /></i></div>
<div>
The Bruins still have his rights, and he's played parts of three seasons in Providence, but per SCOC he elected to go back to Sweden for this season. He was an honorable mention in their T25U25 piece. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
(Note: Boston didn't have a first round pick in 2013, as they sent it to Dallas in the Jaromir Jagr trade.)</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Still in Boston: Arnesson</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
-</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
So, to wrap it up, Boston turned 8 first-round picks and 1 second-round pick into four prospects (two of which aren't even in the top 25 of their farm system). Not great!</div>
Jayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13632002302783356696noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8869544188552161021.post-63388494574722963702017-09-25T17:14:00.000-04:002017-09-25T17:14:12.958-04:00I Got A Little Mad About Sean Couturier AgainI have a confession - I got a little triggered this afternoon. It was this tweet from my boy Mikey (great follow for Flyers and non-Flyers content):<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en">
<div dir="ltr" lang="en">
Dunno why it popped in my head but I remember reading sum1's tweet not so long ago that said theyd rather have Couturier over Mark Scheifele</div>
— Mikey D, O&BP 🤙🏼 (@MikeyD_OandBP) <a href="https://twitter.com/MikeyD_OandBP/status/912383471678558213">September 25, 2017</a></blockquote>
I'm a Couturier guy. I feel like I go to bat for him all the time against people who think he stinks. I certainly don't think Mikey believes that Couturier is "bad", just that Scheifele is better than him.<br />
<br />
And from a scoring standpoint, it's hard to argue. They were drafted back-to-back in 2011 (which is why this fucking comparison comes up so frequently). Couturier started in the NHL immediately, and his two-year headstart over Scheifele means he's totaled 110 more games played. But despite that difference, Scheifele has still outscored Couturier by 20 goals, 16 assists, and 36 points.<br />
<br />
When you boil it down to raw scoring, yes, you would obviously rather have 0.96 goals per 60 minutes than 0.58. You don't need to be an Ivy League economics grad to grasp that general logic (shoutout Charlie O'Connor).<br />
<br />
....Stephen A. Smith voice....<br />
<br />
HOWEVER.<br />
<br />
Couturier's value is always extremely underappreciated by raw scoring metrics for three reasons.<br />
<br />
<ol>
<li>Teammates</li>
<li>Competition</li>
<li>Power play</li>
</ol>
<div>
I'm going to try to be brief and bang out summaries for all three. First, let's look at the guys with whom he shares the ice. I'll resort back to those raw scoring numbers so we can look at how much ice time Scheifele and Couturier get with their teams top ten scorers (please note that Scheifele led the Jets in scoring next year and Couturier was sixth on the Flyers):</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
(Please do not utilize the bit in parentheses there in an argument against me, thank you.)</div>
<br />
<br />
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRA3SDosxzrlYBgfNJj-TxP10oXkDUhFjBF-YV-74tCyAWbetqdpaT7PoppxHw0Qd9Pv34JEK33-Fd74RUjBhOc9_lqBVr0Go46_HW_okIj9HeZKOzQsKjqKN5NKnu3jhqtu7jZEpUhpw/s1600/Capture.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="201" data-original-width="562" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRA3SDosxzrlYBgfNJj-TxP10oXkDUhFjBF-YV-74tCyAWbetqdpaT7PoppxHw0Qd9Pv34JEK33-Fd74RUjBhOc9_lqBVr0Go46_HW_okIj9HeZKOzQsKjqKN5NKnu3jhqtu7jZEpUhpw/s1600/Capture.PNG" /></a></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgO1WzMGLjdfC0IAQ9uXvsvRkOifk6ub_VDKBxo7HF6_cd_JCQrU7DIZI5ZMHWdVrrH2xCl3hZbX6z6jk97ZC1q5Q0PA5TtqfXupdMW138G1WRb4cWo-qOeA94gBcsGeVQ8AsJH9Bi8SQg/s1600/Capture.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="167" data-original-width="505" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgO1WzMGLjdfC0IAQ9uXvsvRkOifk6ub_VDKBxo7HF6_cd_JCQrU7DIZI5ZMHWdVrrH2xCl3hZbX6z6jk97ZC1q5Q0PA5TtqfXupdMW138G1WRb4cWo-qOeA94gBcsGeVQ8AsJH9Bi8SQg/s1600/Capture.PNG" /></a></div>
<br />
Scheifele plays with Wheeler, Laine, Ehlers, and Byfuglien each about half the time he's on the ice. I'd have to get a more mathematically-talented person to tell me how much of his ice time is spent with one of those top-four guys.<br />
<br />
What I can tell you with absolutely certainty is it's a shit-ton more time than Couturier plays with the Flyers' top four. I mean he didn't even play enough minutes with Claude Giroux and Wayne Simmonds last season to qualify for HockeyViz's WOWY chart.<br />
<br />
I think perhaps the best illustration of the Teammate disparity is this stylish Excel 2003 plot:<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjb9oAv0IYun44jVAfizG4V3T-hxc4hJjtpiMYt86qciv7sKdWxUGv_nyHi2OXmjLZwCC64mPP7XPdUEZaqzXmcvD1OpQfLITsRvDk4XgtcG-XkXnCqTLKW24ipYBDtVTyFEFsKKz3R64g/s1600/Capture.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="421" data-original-width="612" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjb9oAv0IYun44jVAfizG4V3T-hxc4hJjtpiMYt86qciv7sKdWxUGv_nyHi2OXmjLZwCC64mPP7XPdUEZaqzXmcvD1OpQfLITsRvDk4XgtcG-XkXnCqTLKW24ipYBDtVTyFEFsKKz3R64g/s1600/Capture.PNG" /></a></div>
Sure, Couturier spent quite a bit of time with Philly's number one scorer (Voracek) last year. But Scheifele spent even more than that amount of time with each of Winnipeg's four top scorers. I'm going to disappoint my high school calculus teacher and try to reference area under the curve here - Couturier's would be about half the size of Scheifele's.<br />
<br />
As for competition, that has been well-documented on this website. Couturier consistently takes his band of whoever-the-fuck-his-coach-tells-him-to-play-with into battle against opposing teams' top lines, and he routinely shuts his opponents down completely.<br />
<br />
And as for the power play, I would recommend <a href="https://theathletic.com/108766/2017/09/23/flyers-training-camp-injuries-clarify-roster-battle-while-players-focus-on-special-teams/">Charlie's latest piece from Flyers training camp</a>. He references the second power play unit with Couturier, Konecny, Provorov, Jordan Weal, and Nolan Patrick. I certainly think the additions of Weal and Patrick (with the new coach behind the scenes) should make this second unit more dangerous.<br />
<br />
I also would like to state for the record that I think Couturier should be the net-front guy and Patrick should take the "Giroux" spot on the wall. That seems like a simple fix.Jayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13632002302783356696noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8869544188552161021.post-504980234420477212017-09-13T10:07:00.004-04:002017-09-13T10:07:59.378-04:00Flyers-Islanders Rookie Game PreviewHockey is back! It's cold enough to wear pants, there is ice on the floor of the Wells Fargo Center, and players who make a shit-ton of money are practicing at the Skate Zone in Vorhees.<br />
<br />
The rookie camp-training camp week feels like the real start of the season. Especially consider the Flyers' DEEP prospect pool, the fact that these games don't count doesn't matter in the slightest. We get to watch our boys (and some of them are actually boys) and that is a beautiful thing.<br />
<br />
Tonight's Flyers-Islanders rookie game should be a good one, in that it features two teams whose fans believe they have among the best prospect pools in the league. For what it's worth, two of the top three comments on <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/hockey/comments/6lhdpk/best_nhl_prospect_pools/">THIS </a>random Reddit post mention the Flyers and Isles.<br />
<br />
Of course, we know everyone who will be wearing orange tonight. We do not, however, know who is going to be playing with who(m) tonight. We'll reference some trios and pairs from rookie camp to try to project who might get matched up.<br />
<br />
And then I don't know a goddamn thing about the Islanders prospect pipeline. So I wanted to do a bit of research as a primer for tonight.<br />
<br />
<b><u>Combinations Of Baby Flyers That Might Happen</u></b><br />
<b><u><br /></u></b>
Your Boy <a href="https://twitter.com/davegisaac">Dave Isaac</a> tweeted out the lines from the first two days of rookie camp. Here's the forwards from day one:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>Bunnaman-Patrick-Salinitri</li>
<li>Lindblom-Laberge-Rubtsov</li>
<li>Twarynski-Vorobyev-Kosorenkov</li>
<li>Ratcliffe-Frost-Strome/Sushko</li>
<li>AubeKubel-Vecchione-Fazleev</li>
</ul>
<div>
And then day two:</div>
<ul>
<li>Kosorenkov-Vorobyev-Salinitri</li>
<li>Lindblom-Laberge-Rubtsov</li>
<li>Ratcliffe-Frost-Strome/Sushko</li>
<li>Bunnaman-Patrick-AubeKubel</li>
<li>Twarynski-Vecchione-Fazleev</li>
</ul>
<div>
And, hot off the press, day three:</div>
<br />
<ul>
<li>Lindblom-Laberge-Rubtsov</li>
<li>Twarynski-Vorobyev-Kosorenkov</li>
<li>Bunnaman-Patrick-Sushko</li>
<li>Salinitri-Vecchione-Fazleev</li>
<li>Ratcliffe-Frost-Strome</li>
</ul>
<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<br />
<div>
</div>
My thoughts:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>Lindblom-Laberge-Rubtsov OH MY GOD!! Over/under 9.5 points from that trio tonight?</li>
<li>Patrick being stapled to Bunnaman is a good move in my mind. Patrick can be the playmaker and Bunnaman can be the scorer. If Sushko is indeed their third tonight, he'll be half-playmaker and half-shooter. I like it. </li>
<li>Aube-Kubel, Veccione, Fazleev is probably a Phantoms line next season.</li>
<li>Props to Anthony Salinitri, who has been deemed good enough to play alongside Patrick and AHL-caliber players. Similar props to Carsen Twarynski. </li>
<li>I hope Ivan Kosorenkov kills it and signs an ELC next week. </li>
<li>Ratcliffe-Frost-Strome. Babies!</li>
</ul>
<br />
<b><u>Islanders Prospects That Are Going To Be Good In The Future At Some Point</u></b><br />
<br />
I'll try to pick some brief scouting reports from around the internet, and I'll aim especially for (1) buzzwords that don't really mean anything and (2) NHL player comparables.<br />
<br />
Mathew Barzal, center, drafted 16th overall in 2015<br />
<div>
(<a href="http://www.dobberprospects.com/mathew-barzal/">Dobber Prospects</a>) <i>"one of the purest puck handlers and passers of anyone in his age group...has the skills and the vision to be a deadly weapon on the powerplay, but he showed his range and creativity 5 on 5 as well...he will continue to round out his defensive game"</i><br />
<br />
Kieffer Bellows, winger, drafted 19th overall in 2016</div>
<div>
(<a href="https://eyesonisles.com/2017/07/26/new-york-islanders-daily-kieffer-bellows-pro-plan/">Eyes On Isles</a>) <i>"Bellows said his plan is to play one season for Portland before joining the Islanders for the 2018-19 season. He’ll try to improve all areas of his game, with a focus on his skating."</i><br />
(<a href="http://www.thedraftanalyst.com/prospects/kieffer-bellows/">The Draft Analyst</a>) <i>"a well-built goal scorer with a low center of gravity who can play a punishing, heavy yet cerebral game...is most certainly better suited as a shooter from the flank...He plays an aggressive, sometimes stubborn game, often too much for his own good. Getting whistled for bad penalties is a habit he’s had since high school"</i></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Michael Dal Colle, winger drafted 5th overall in 2014</div>
<div>
(<a href="https://eyesonisles.com/2017/07/19/new-york-islanders-prospect-michael-dal-colle-worth-wait/">Eyes On The Isles</a>) <i>"scouting report heading into the 2014 Draft was full of superlatives. It included skill, size, creativity, puck protection, battler, as well as hard working and intangibles...Islander fans shouldn’t give up on Dal Colle"</i></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Joshua Ho-Sang, winger, drafted 28th overall in 2014</div>
<div>
(<a href="http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=161290">Eliteprospects</a>) <i>"Ho-Sang often turns heads with his ability to handle the puck with ease in the offensive zone. He has speed and great offensive instincts but needs to work on his game outside of the offensive zone."</i></div>
(<a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/juniors/josh-ho-sang-late-training-camp-alarm-new-york-islanders-garth-snow-ohl-niagara-icedogs/">Sportsnet</a>) <i>"Josh Ho-Sang forgot to set an alarm. That is why he was late for Day 1 of New York Islanders training camp"</i><br />
<div>
<br />
Mitchell Vande Sompel, defenseman, drafted in the 3rd round in 2015<br />
(<a href="https://www.lighthousehockey.com/2016/6/12/11892320/new-york-islanders-top-prospects-mitchell-vande-sompel">Lighthouse Hockey</a>) <i>"What Mitchell Vande Sompel lacks in size he boasts in all-zone hockey intelligence. He has to. He's been used as both a forward and a defenseman...the allure here is how he can distribute the puck and join the rush from the blueline as an outstanding, agile skater."</i></div>
<div>
<i><br /></i></div>
<div>
Parker Wotherspoon, defenseman, drafted in the 4th round in 2015</div>
<div>
(<a href="https://www.lighthousehockey.com/2016/6/14/11928322/new-york-islanders-top-prospects-parker-wotherspoon-youngest-sound-tiger">Lighthouse Hockey</a>) <i>"he became the youngest Sound Tiger ever at age 18 - his coach said "I thought he was confident. He was poised with the puck. He made really good puck decisions. He had really good battle. His hockey IQ: He was ready to play. He understood where to be on the ice."</i></div>
<div>
Here are some more great Hockey Quotes from that article:</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li><i>When you watch Parker Wotherspoon, you notice him.</i></li>
<li><i>He skates well. He jumps in the play well. Oh, and he defends well. We're excited about him.</i></li>
<li><i>Wotherspoon has the potential to be a top 4, offensive LD who is sound defensively. </i></li>
<li><i>The kid can skate.</i></li>
<li><i>Parker Wotherspoon improved greatly this past year on a Tri-City team that wasn't very good.</i></li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
And now for some players that aren't really of the caliber of the guys above, but are worth noting anyway. I'll call them honorable mentions (possibly not honorable):<br />
<br />
Sebastian Aho - This is not the actual Sebastian Aho (the good one plays for Carolina).<br />
<br />
Devon Toews - He is not related to Top 100 All-Time NHL Player Jonathan Toews.<br />
<br />
Matthew Gaudreau - Johnny's younger brother. He is also from New Jersey just like his older brother; did people know that Johnny Gaudreau is from New Jersey?<br />
<br />
John Stevens - Son of coach John Stevens, who played for (and coached) the Flyers.<br />
<br />
David Quenneville - His brother John (Devils) is the good one. His cousin Joel (Maple Leafs) is also good. David (Islanders) and Peter (Blue Jackets) are the "shitty" ones, but in this family that means they were only seventh-round picks.<br />
<br />
<div>
And then this guy: Mitch Gillam - He played at Cornell (it's an Ivy League school in case you were not aware), and he posted save percentages between .914 and .927 (and goals against averages of 1.99 to 2.49) over his four years. Then he made the jump to the ECHL Solar Bears for a cup of coffee last year and immediately posted a .833 save percentage and a 6.34 goals against average.<br />
<br />
(Eamon McAdam - the other goalie for the Isles in this game - seems actually good though, so it's not going to be all fun and games and offense)</div>
</div>
Jayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13632002302783356696noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8869544188552161021.post-14454652977523716972017-09-07T10:16:00.002-04:002017-09-07T10:16:50.470-04:00You Need Five Top-Six-Caliber Wingers In Today's NHLIt's almost hockey season, which means it's almost the time of year where I see a random tweet and spiral downward into a place where I try to convince myself that the Flyers are actually good.<br />
<br />
Today's entry comes from the newest member of The Athletic Philly (I think), Englishman (I think) Alexander Appleyard:<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en">
<div dir="ltr" lang="en">
Fun stat of day, here are cup winners since '10's median P/82+sv%:<br />
<br />
64-76-57<br />
52-49-44<br />
40-28-29<br />
22-23-17<br />
<br />
47-34<br />
28-23<br />
17-14<br />
<br />
.924<br />
.922<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NHL?src=hash">#NHL</a></div>
— Alexander Appleyard (@avappleyard) <a href="https://twitter.com/avappleyard/status/905766383455272960">September 7, 2017</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en">
<div dir="ltr" lang="en">
Yep. And cup finalist losers have a #5 winger who averages 38pts/82.<br /><br />Having 5x top 6 level wingers is pretty key.</div>
— Alexander Appleyard (@avappleyard) <a href="https://twitter.com/avappleyard/status/905779316331565058">September 7, 2017</a></blockquote>
So, let's jump right the fuck in and see how close the Flyers are to this level.<br />
<br />
<b><u>Top Six Centers</u></b><br />
<br />
I think the majority of Flyers Twitter is in agreement about the guys who are going to be anchoring our lines for the next few years. In order from oldest to youngest, it's Claude Giroux, Sean Couturier, Scott Laughton, and Nolan Patrick.<br />
<br />
Perhaps someone might make a case for German Rubtsov, Morgan Frost, or Pascal Laberge stealing one of those spots in 2-3 years, but for now I think we should just focus on Giroux, Couturier, Laughton, and Patrick.<br />
<br />
We need one center to score 70+ points and another to score around 50. Giroux hasn't scored more than 70 since 2014-15, and he finished last season with just 58 points in a full 82-game season. In Giroux's defense (I'll keep it short, there are plenty of deep dives elsewhere), his career-low shooting percentage last season cost him about 7 goals and the team's poor shooting percentage probably cost him at least that many points.<br />
<br />
Hot take: Claude Giroux is our best bet to score 76 points next season.<br />
<br />
Here's another take, in case you're really looking to get hot: Sean Couturier is the guy who's going to score 49 points next year. He scored 34 in 66 games last season (a pace of 42-ish over a full season), and he's going to almost certainly get an upgrade in wingers and defensemen this season. Yes, Couturier spent quite a bit of time between Travis Konecny and Jake Voracek last year, but he also spent quite a bit with Matt Read, Nick Cousins, and Dale Weise on his flanks.<br />
<br />
<b><u>Bottom Six Centers</u></b><br />
<b><u><br /></u></b>
With decent (or even just better-than-replacement-level) wingers, I have no doubt that Patrick and Laughton can get us to the 28- and 23-point thresholds in Alexander's tweet. Moving on!<br />
<br />
<b><u>Wingers</u></b><br />
<b><u><br /></u></b>
We know the names here - Voracek, Wayne Simmonds, Konecny, Oskar Lindblom, Valtteri Filppula, Jordan Weal, Jori Lehtera, Michael Raffl, Matt Read, Dale Weise.<br />
<br />
I think it's easiest to start by trying to box some guys in as fourth-liners in the 17-23 point range. That would include two of these:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>Weise (topped out at 29 and 27 points two and three seasons ago)</li>
<li>Read (steadily declining with 40-30-26-19 points over the last four years)</li>
<li>Lehtera (44-34-22 over the past three years despite his being stapled to Vladimir Tarasenko's hip)</li>
<li>Raffl (great complimentary piece but probably maxed out at 31 points in 2015-16)</li>
</ul>
<div>
Let's just move our way up the lineup card to the third line. These two are probably the hardest to project out of the whole roster, but this is a wide enough window that I think we can get away with it. These would be players who are 40-point wingers in a good season and 29-point wingers in a bad season:</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>Lindblom (47 points in 52 games plus 14 points in 20 playoff games last year in the SHL, which is the third- or fourth-best league in the world - I think this level offers a reasonable window for him to try to reach)</li>
<li>Weal (I believe his point-per-game pace will reflect less of his 12-points-in-23-games last season and more of his 12-points-in-37-games for his career, but you never know)</li>
</ul>
<div>
And the second line-caliber guys, aiming for 52 and 44 points:</div>
</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>Filppula (sneakily scores more points that I would have thought, totaling 58-48-31-42 in his seasons since he joined Tampa Bay)</li>
<li>Konecny (28 points in his rookie season, should improve and eventually get some power play production)</li>
</ul>
<div>
And, finally, the first liners. The guys at the top of the depth chart are shooting for 64 and 57 points:</div>
</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>Voracek (scored 354 points in 445 games as a Flyer, an average of 65 points per 82 games)</li>
<li>Simmonds (his full seasons in Philly have totals of 49-60-50-60-54 points)</li>
</ul>
<div>
<b><u>How Good Are We?</u></b></div>
</div>
<div>
<b><u><br /></u></b></div>
<div>
Well, it hard to say. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
I think we have five 40-point wingers this year - Voracek, Simmonds, Filppula, Konecny, and one of Lindblom/Weal. If the other of Lindblom/Weal can't step up to replace Filppula in that group after he leaves, then it becomes a little more hairy. There are plenty of prospects in the pipeline, but it's difficult to say with any certainty that one of them is going to be ready to score 40 points in the NHL one year from now. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
But, for now, let's just enjoy the fact that the current Flyers forward group seems like it might just meet the criteria for this one small part of being a legitimate contender. </div>
<br />
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>Jayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13632002302783356696noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8869544188552161021.post-86779224706021019952017-08-29T14:05:00.001-04:002017-08-29T14:05:09.492-04:00Man, I Love The Eric Lindros Trade FiascoThe deep dive into the fabled Lindros Trade (which has <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eric_Lindros_trade" target="_blank">its own Wikipedia page</a>) was wonderfully done by <a href="https://www.nhl.com/news/eric-lindros-1992-trade-oral-history/c-643345?tid=277548856">NHL.com</a> in 2012, and then was republished last season when Lindros was inducted into the Hockey Hall Of Fame. It came to mind for me this week, with the news that the Flyers are going to retire his #88 into the rafters forever. <div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Part three of that four-part NHL piece focuses on the complex legal situation that was a disputed trade between the Quebec, Pennsylvania, and New York franchises of an Ontario-based league. As seems to be the case in most legal battles, each organization found supporting precedents to support the ruling that would have most benefited their individual interests. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
But first, let's set the scene:<br /><br /><i>Eric Lindros was perhaps the most heralded junior-hockey player in history -- at just 18 years old, he was 6-foot-4 and 225 pounds. With a blend of dominant skill and overwhelming size and strength, many had pegged him as the next great NHL superstar, following closely in the footsteps of Wayne Gretzky and Mario Lemieux.<br /><br />Taken by the Quebec Nordiques with the first pick of the 1991 NHL Draft, Lindros resisted signing with the club. He spent the 1991-92 season playing junior hockey and skating for Canada at the 1992 World Junior Championship and the 1992 Olympics. Lindros reiterated to the Nordiques that he would play outside the NHL in 1992-93 and re-enter the draft in 1993.<br /><br />Faced with the possibility of losing Lindros with no compensation, the Nordiques began entertaining offers for Lindros' rights, with the culmination of that effort set for the 1992 NHL Draft in Montreal.</i><br /><br /><i>June 20, 1992 marked one of the stranger days in NHL history: Just prior to the start of the draft, the Nordiques twice traded Lindros' rights -- first to the Philadelphia Flyers then to the New York Rangers.</i></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
As a Flyers fan, I tend to sympathize more with the Philadelphia contingent in the story. Here's the front office's description of the day of the 1992 NHL Draft, which is the day they (thought they) completed the trade for Lindros, and then found out that Montreal yanked the rug out from under them:</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<b>Russ Farwell, Philadelphia Flyers general manager</b><br /><br /><i>"We thought we made the trade. We called Eric and I got in a cab and went to the draft."<br /></i><div>
<i>"Jay called me and said, 'Aubut is backing out, he tried to trade him somewhere else,' and that's where it was. He said, 'I'm not going over [to the draft], I'm taking a car to ...,' he was going to file a grievance. In the meantime, we pulled our guys together. We thought we had traded our pick so we pulled our guys together and said we had to pick."</i><div>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #262525; font-family: Arial; font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #262525; font-family: Arial; font-size: 16px; line-height: 32px; margin-bottom: 12px;">
<b style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium;">Jay Snider, Philadelphia Flyers president</b></div>
<i>"I was just pretty much in shock. I didn't know how to react. This was crazy. I called my dad [Flyers owner Ed Snider] and I said, 'You're not going to believe this -- Marcel said, I traded him to the Rangers.' Just like that, happy as could be, typical Marcel Aubut. … Our first reaction was, 'You know what? Screw it, this deal is too much and to hell with it at this point, let's just let it go.' And then I don't know if it was that conversation or he called back five minutes later, but he said, 'Before we do that, go talk to Gil Stein,' League's general counsel, 'and find out what our rights are.' I went to the draft floor, sought out Gil, explained our situation, Gil said, 'Let's get John [Ziegler, NHL president].' We go into a back room, talk about the situation and he said, 'Jay, you can arbitrate this.' I said, 'OK I'm arbitrating this -- what do I do?'"</i></div>
<div>
<br /><b>Jim Gregory, NHL vice president of hockey operations</b><br /><i><br />"[Ziegler and Stein] asked me a couple questions, but nothing serious. I just told them that Larry Bertuzzi, who was doing work for the NHL, was an unbelievable lawyer, had a perception about hockey, and would be a good man. They listened."</i></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
..And so it began. Bertuzzi was to arbitrate the matter, in Montreal because the entire league was already there for the draft. Lindros was poised to be a generational talent, a player that Philadelphia and New York would both love to add to their organization for the next two decades. Montreal was going to receive a haul either way, but their 'individual interest' (as I worded it) was to bring back as much talent and assets as possible. </div>
<div>
<br /><b>Jay Snider, Philadelphia Flyers president</b><br /><i><br /></i><div>
<i>"It was very hostile up there, because in essence Lindros was snubbing French Canada -- I couldn't find a law firm in Quebec to work for me. Not one. I went to probably five top firms and they all refused to take it."<br /><br />"[Nordiques owner Marcel] Aubut brought in a major firm, and the head of the firm had been the ambassador to the United Nations, a member of the Royal Order of Canada.<br /><br />"[Chicago Blackhawks owner] Bill Wirtz lent us his attorney [Gene Gozdecki], who was there as an alternate governor for the Board of Governors meeting. He started the first day representing us in the first hearing."</i><br /><br />This is my second-favorite part of this whole story. Lindros had refused to play in Quebec, and EVERY LAW FIRM IN QUEBEC refused to represent anything that remotely involved his interests. It's like how a small Texas town treats its football players, but it was the second-largest province in Canada with something like 8 million residents. It was something like the entire state of Virginia, and not a single big-time lawyer would support any party not named the Quebec Nordiques. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
And the guy who ended up representing the Nordiques was a UN Ambassador and had received 'The highest degree of merit, for an outstanding level of talent and service or an exceptional contribution to Canada and humanity.' Picture Charlie Kelly going toe-to-toe with Harvey Specter on any legal topic other than bird law. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Let's jump to Larry Bertuzzi (uncle of Todd), who was a Toronto lawyer with quite a bit of NHL experience.<br /><br /><b>Larry Bertuzzi, arbitrator</b><br /><br /><i>"I show up in Montreal on Sunday morning, I'm introduced to all the parties. I make a few inquiries -- tell me everything that's on the books on how to deal with this matter. Tell me everything that's on the books about what makes a trade, how this dispute is to be resolved. Give me all the guidelines that are already in place. They handed me a two-line piece of paper. And it said -- I'll paraphrase it -- when there's a dispute involving whether or not a trade took place, the dispute shall be handled by the president of the League or at the consent of the parties by an arbitrator. Period. Full stop. That was it."</i></div>
<div>
<i><br /></i></div>
<div>
(Quick spoiler: whether or not the three teams consented, the NHL was always going to endorse him as arbitrator. So that little two-line piece of paper ended up meaning that he was totally FUCKED for the next week or so.)<br /><br /><i>"There are three parties, there's about 12 lawyers and I look around and we have people representing legal jurisdictions of Ontario and Quebec in Canada, New York, Philadelphia and Illinois in the States. And I realize that there is absolutely no legal procedure which governs the proceedings. So I effectively put the challenge to the counsel and, 'I need you to tell me what the question is you want me to answer and how you're framing it and I want to see if the three parties can come up with a process by which we might get to the bottom of this.'</i></div>
<div>
<br /><i>"I get a call about 5 o'clock [Sunday] from Snider and Weinberg and I go down there and they said, 'We're going home.' I said, 'What? You're going home?' They said, 'Look at this piece of garbage that they gave us.' Sure enough Quebec and New York had written a very one-sided-looking document and Philly said, 'We're not taking this.'</i><br /><br /><i>"I had breakfast with the NHL [Monday morning] and I said if they don't agree to me as arbitrator consensually, what are you going to do? Ziegler said, 'I'm going to appoint you so it's out of their hands.' I said, 'Fine, that's all the jurisdictional backing I need.' I went in at 9 o'clock and I said, 'Gentlemen I've given you six, seven, eight, nine hours to come up with a process. You failed miserably. Here's what we're going to do. We're going to adjourn for two hours and I'm going to write out the process myself. And I'm going to then hand it out to you and you have two choices: You can like it and we'll proceed or you can hate it and we'll proceed nonetheless.'"</i><br /><br /><b>Jay Snider, Philadelphia Flyers president</b><br /><br /><i>"Bertuzzi said this is going to be kind of based on common sense and law and the NHL rules. It's based on an amalgam of law. Because in Quebec the law is a little different than the rest of Canada. It's like Louisiana in the U.S. -- it's more based on a French system. There's nuance. He just said it's not going to be based on one jurisdiction of law; it's going to be based on common sense in a way."</i><br /><br />This is the single most interesting thing for me about this whole ordeal. Bertuzzi essentially had to invent a legal code for handling this situation that factored in two separate Canadian provinces (with vastly different heritages) and three separate US states. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
It must have been a complete pain in the ass to create, but this was a one-time set of guidelines that will probably quite literally never apply to any situation ever again for the rest of time. It's tough to find anything about Bertuzzi on the internet that isn't about this case or his relationship to Todd, but I would be willing to be that this was a highlight-of-the-career type of opportunity.<br /><br /><b>Larry Bertuzzi, arbitrator</b><br /><br /><i>"The hearing went for five or six days: Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday. It finished at about 6 a.m. Saturday morning.<br /><br />"I was making it up as I went along. And I had no one to consult. And it was highly secretive and it was both the most challenging thing I ever did and one of the loneliest legal things I ever did. I had an attaché from the League who became a good friend, Benny Eroclani. I had a security guy from the League who I spent all my off hours with. I wasn't lonely in that sense -- I had people to eat with. But from a pure running-the-case perspective, there was a room full of lawyers and a room full of executives and there was little old me at the front. I was in charge of making all the rules, but I was on my own."<br /><br />"During those six days we had nothing but bumps and bruises along the way. We had objections and I'd say, 'What's your objection?' and they'd say, 'That's not the way we do it in Pennsylvania.' Someone else would say, 'That's not the way we do it in New York,' and someone else would say, 'That's the way we do it in Quebec, that's the way we do it in Illinois.' Back and forth, stuff like that.<br /><br />"We had a request to subpoena the Lindroses, except I had no subpoena power. I had to get on the phone with the Lindros' lawyer and negotiate their attendance. So when they showed up they had their own lawyer. We had to navigate the press every day. We had a press blackout, but since the NHL's annual meeting was on, maybe 20 of the press stayed all week and hung outside the room.</i><br />What a fucking MESS this must have been.<br /><br /><b>Jay Snider, Philadelphia Flyers president</b><br /><br /><i>"It was horrendous. It was one of the most stressful periods in my life."</i><br />Yup.<br /><br /><b>Jay Snider, Philadelphia Flyers president</b><br /><br /><i>"I remember on the last day, before final arguments, Phil [Weinberg]said, 'I need to be alone.' Phil had to figure out basic law and he came up with the basic principle that the existence of a contract is from offer to counteroffer to acceptance. If you look at the decision, it came down to the fact that Aubut's call to me and giving me permission to talk to Lindros was the indication that a contract had been reached. At the very basis of it all, that's an accepted principle in law in all jurisdictions. It indicated that a valid agreement had been reached."</i><br /><br /><b>Phil Weinberg, Philadelphia Flyers lawyer</b><br /><br /><i>"What I was trying to argue was that's what makes a contract. In the simplest terms a contract is formed when there's an offer and it's accepted. Acceptance can occur in a number of ways. It can occur in writing, it can occur through action -- in any way that the parties manifest that they have accepted the offer. That's sort of hornbook law about what makes a contract. There's a little bit of discrepancy in the law of the United States and the law of Canada as to how can that acceptance be manifested. In the United States, it has to be ... there's an objective theory of contract formation and a subjective theory of contract formation. The objective theory is, what would the outside person looking at things determine as to whether there had been an acceptance of an offer. And a subjective theory isn't so much what an outside observer would think, it's more what you think in your own mind, the accepting party, as to whether you've accepted the terms of the offer or not. The European common law that runs through Canadian jurisprudence a little bit more is this subjective theory. And the American theory is the objective theory.<br /><br />"What I was able to argue is that by all outward manifestations, Marcel Aubut, who was the person accepting our offer, indicated his consent, indicated his acceptance, because there was this term ... one of the things that happened in the arbitration was that we had wanted to talk to Lindros to see if he'd sign with us. And Aubut had said somewhere along the way that if he gave us the number then we had a deal. He did in fact give Jay the number at some point for Lindros so that we could talk to him and see if he would play in Philly. We used that fact.<br /><br />"What I was able to do was argue that Aubut in the Canadian way of thinking about contract formation, probably in his own mind, didn't even really know he had made a contract because it was more subjective to his own way of thinking. He, in his own head, was playing out this auction but holding back in his mind the ultimate assent to the offer, the ultimate agreement or acceptance. But that doesn't matter because the rule of law that should be applied is the objective theory. Any outsider, any third party, anybody looking at his conduct, would believe a contract would be formed because we can't go into the mind of somebody to really understand what they're thinking. Which is why we ascribe to this objective theory. Once he met the last term of our offer, which was, give us Lindros' number to see if he wants to play in Philly, then he had accepted all of the terms by an objective theory. It didn't really matter what he was thinking about anything. I think that's what I was really trying to stress."</i><br /><br /> </div>
</div>
</div>
<div>
Phil Weinberg has been General Counsel for the Comcast/Spectacor company since it was created in 1996. Knowing what we know about Ed Snider and the Comcast-Flyers family in general, I don't think it's an exaggeration to say that his brilliant handling of the Lindros situation earned him that position for life. </div>
<br /><b>Larry Bertuzzi, arbitrator</b><br /><br /><i>"I phoned the NHL on Monday and told them I had my decision ready to go because I worked all day Sunday on it. They said, 'We don't want you to release it now; we want you to release it on national TV.' So we had this major extravaganza where at 9 o'clock I had a conference call involving all the clubs and read my decision. And then at 10 o'clock, on a conference call with more than 100 participants, I read the decision on national TV, on TSN and on the radio. And then we had this monster press conference."<br /><br />"The case turned on the following: If New York and Quebec agree they made a deal on the basis of the conduct they engaged in, then applying that same test to the Quebec-Philly discussions, they must have made a deal an hour earlier."</i><div>
<br /></div>
<div>
As it turned out, the question that Bertuzzi had in mind with his 'I need you to tell me what the question is you want me to answer' quote was just simply 'Did the Nordiques trade Lindros to the Flyers?'</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
And, as it turned out, the answer was yes. Maybe Marcel Aubut honestly didn't realize what was happening. Maybe he was being a snake and trying to fuck over the Flyers. Maybe the legal mindsets that have developed over hundreds of years based on French, British, and American principles are just fundamentally different and shit like this happens. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Whichever way you want to look at it, it's one of the (if not the singular) most entertaining sports law stories of recent history. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
And there's a great happy ending quote from Farwell:</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #262525; font-family: Arial; font-size: 16px; line-height: 32px; margin-bottom: 12px;">
<b style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: medium;">Russ Farwell, Philadelphia Flyers general manager</b></div>
<i>"I remember our staff a week or two after saying we announced that signing, we sold more season tickets than they did after they won the Stanley Cup."</i></div>
Jayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13632002302783356696noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8869544188552161021.post-35221008994126340982017-08-15T14:12:00.000-04:002017-08-15T14:12:08.218-04:00My Top 25 Under 25 ChartAs Broad Street Hockey's Top 25 Under 25 countdown rolls on - <a href="https://www.broadstreethockey.com/2017/8/15/16122572/robert-hagg-nhl-philadelphia-flyers-25-under-25-prospects-analysis-lehigh-valley-phantoms-ahl" target="_blank">today's entry is Robert Hagg</a> - the conversation seems to focus more on the debate between future potential and immediate impact.<br />
<br />
Take Hagg, for example: he'll likely play in the NHL this season, but his upside is decidedly lower than Philippe Myers (who is more of a longshot to make the big club this year). Myers will finish higher in the rankings, as he has not appeared in the countdown yet, but there is something to be said for the fact that Hagg is already NHL-ready.<br />
<br />
In <a href="http://bulletsblog10.blogspot.com/2017/07/my-flyers-top-25-under-25-ballot.html" target="_blank">my initial Top 25 Under 25 list</a>, I generally favored NHL-readiness over long-term potential. I think the best representation of this fact was my placement of Mike Vecchione and Taylor Leier above first-round picks German Rubtsov and Morgan Frost. The latter pair will almost certainly leave the former pair in the dust if they reach their potential, but Vecchione and Leier will likely contribute (at least sparingly) this season.<br />
<br />
So, because I have all the time in the world to kill, I'm going to try to reconcile my less-than-concrete logic and place everyone together in a two-dimensional chart.<br />
<br />
<b><u>Basic Framework</u></b><br />
<b><u><br /></u></b>
I'm going to rank each side of the chart on a scale of 1-5. Here is how I intend those to work (but I haven't started ranking yet, so this is all subject to change).<br />
<br />
2017-18 Contributions<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>5 - Cornerstone player for the Flyers</li>
<li>4 - Will make the team and play the entire season in the NHL</li>
<li>3 - Not a lock to make the team, but probably will spend the year with the Flyers</li>
<li>2 - Probably will only see time as an injury fill-in</li>
<li>1 - I'll be shocked if he plays a game in the NHL</li>
</ul>
<div>
Future Potential</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>5 - Perennial All-Star</li>
<li>4 - Key contributor at the NHL level for a decade</li>
<li>3 - Solid contributor for a long time</li>
<li>2 - Journeyman</li>
<li>1 - Might have a few good seasons</li>
<li>0 - Zac Rinaldo</li>
</ul>
<div>
And, with that in mind, let's rank some guys. </div>
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggW-zEcdULgD4u3SSp3iP9uQjEcPOsXifPQhaXTD4ikjKAQrJJUCr9muyKQRbcIR_LAvWkrpafqX5OKswU2P4pgpl19_G32xvYMikilHWfvL0VlpX__K4SVnL9wobpxPGAM4rs7llDPYA/s1600/1.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="660" data-original-width="922" height="458" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggW-zEcdULgD4u3SSp3iP9uQjEcPOsXifPQhaXTD4ikjKAQrJJUCr9muyKQRbcIR_LAvWkrpafqX5OKswU2P4pgpl19_G32xvYMikilHWfvL0VlpX__K4SVnL9wobpxPGAM4rs7llDPYA/s640/1.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div>
There is a lot of grouping, because I am just one person and my general thought process was something along the lines of "there are going to be a lot of guys who are either in juniors or on the Phantoms this season."</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
It's a little easier to compare when I add in diagonal gridlines:</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijisK828SZGO_QMKz8BRwZ7HH279ubQ9EBLXFD0QhlynAI_2JkRXr1bEXfyS4n7ieEJqDGL-YJQg7asgkaK2bWEPzkEmguobHTJZA1Sxk7FdzyC-xMuBexZsV2NunvzpV92r6No_emwW4/s1600/Capture.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="659" data-original-width="929" height="452" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijisK828SZGO_QMKz8BRwZ7HH279ubQ9EBLXFD0QhlynAI_2JkRXr1bEXfyS4n7ieEJqDGL-YJQg7asgkaK2bWEPzkEmguobHTJZA1Sxk7FdzyC-xMuBexZsV2NunvzpV92r6No_emwW4/s640/Capture.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Here's how that translates into my revised Top 25 Under 25:</div>
<div>
<ol>
<li>Ivan Provorov</li>
<li>Sean Couturier</li>
<li>Shayne Gostisbehere</li>
<li>Nolan Patrick</li>
<li>Travis Konecny</li>
<li>Oskar Lindblom</li>
<li>Travis Sanheim</li>
<li>Sam Morin</li>
<li>Robert Hagg</li>
<li>Philippe Myers</li>
<li>Scott Laughton</li>
<li>Carter Hart</li>
<li>Felix Sandstrom</li>
<li>Taylor Leier</li>
<li>Mike Vecchione</li>
<li>Wade Allison</li>
<li>Isaac Ratcliffe</li>
<li>German Rubtsov</li>
<li>Nicolas Aube-Kubel</li>
<li>Anthony Stolarz</li>
<li>Pascal Laberge</li>
<li>Mikhail Vorobyov</li>
<li>Morgan Frost</li>
<li>Matt Strome</li>
<li>Alex Lyon</li>
</ol>
<div>
And my honorable mentions would be Mark Friedman, Radel Fazleev, and Connor Bunnaman. </div>
</div>
Jayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13632002302783356696noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8869544188552161021.post-2676855923867665572017-07-19T11:02:00.001-04:002017-07-19T11:02:42.079-04:00My Flyers Top 25 Under 25 Ballot<div class="tr_bq">
Two weeks ago, I tweeted that Development Camp is my favorite part of the hockey season. That might have just been an exaggeration due to the mid-July sports lull, but the ability to watch the future of the organization is always interesting and rewarding. Rookie camp in September (and then actual training camp after that) are also must-views for any Flyers fan. </div>
<br />
A related semi-annual must-view for Flyers fans is <a href="https://www.broadstreethockey.com/2017/7/19/15994852/philadelphia-flyers-under-25-rankings-analysis-nhl-submit-ballot" target="_blank">Broad Street Hockey's Top 25 Under 25</a> feature. At every offseason and midseason, the site's writers and readers rank the Flyers young talent and prospect pool. It's been an especially interesting ride over the past three years, where the organization has improved from a dready prospect pool to <a href="https://t.co/NPqunX8NZt" target="_blank">arguably the best in the entire NHL</a>. They have high-end prospects and deep pools of lottery tickets across all three positions.<br />
<br />
Here is how I ranked my T25U25 in February, about halfway through last season:<br />
<ol>
<li>Sean Couturier</li>
<li>Ivan Provorov</li>
<li>Travis Konecny</li>
<li>Shayne Gostisbehere</li>
<li>Travis Sanheim</li>
<li>Nick Cousins</li>
<li>Oskar Lindblom</li>
<li>Sam Morin</li>
<li>Phil Myers</li>
<li>Scott Laughton</li>
<li>Taylor Leier</li>
<li>Jordan Weal</li>
<li>Anthony Stolarz</li>
<li>Robert Hagg</li>
<li>German Rubtsov</li>
<li>Nicolas Aube-Kubel</li>
<li>Davis Kase</li>
<li>Mikhail Vorobyov</li>
<li>Pascal Laberge</li>
<li>Wade Allison</li>
<li>Radel Fazleev</li>
<li>Carter Hart</li>
<li>Alex Lyon</li>
<li>Felix Sandstrom</li>
<li>Tyrell Goulbourne</li>
</ol>
<div>
Cousins was traded, Weal is no longer under 25, and there were nine draftees added to the mix last month. This list will likely get shaken up quite a bit. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Without further adieu, here's my preseason list for 2017-18.</div>
<div>
<b><br /></b></div>
<div>
<b>1. Sean Couturier</b></div>
<div>
<b>2. Ivan Provorov</b></div>
<div>
<b>3. Shayne Gostisbehere</b></div>
<div>
<b>4. Travis Konecny</b></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
We all know (and love) these four, and it's never a bad thing to have a young core like this featuring a stud defensive center, a stud defenseman, an electric offensive defenseman, and an electric playmaking winger. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>5. Scott Laughton</b></div>
<div>
<b><br /></b></div>
<div>
Laughton, in the final BSH rankings, is probably going to have the widest range of any of the players who have NHL games under their belt. He was protected in the expansion draft, demonstrating the organization's opinion of him, but he's never really had a breakout at the NHL level. Personally, I think the flexibility to move between center and wing combined with his all-around type of skillset means it's going to happen at some point. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>6. Travis Sanheim</b></div>
<div>
<b>7. Sam Morin</b></div>
<div>
<b>8. Phil Myers</b></div>
<div>
<b>9. Robert Hagg</b></div>
<div>
<b><br /></b></div>
<div>
You can mix these four up any way you'd like. For me, the order at this point in time is not indicative of how likely I think they are to make the team this season. I expect Sanheim to return to the Phantoms and play top-pair minutes (plus a ton of power play minutes). I expect Myers to join him on the Phantoms and take an intermediate step between juniors and the NHL. I expect Morin and Hagg to make the Flyers, and (of course) I expect Flyers Twitter to melt down every time either one of them makes a mistake. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>10. Oskar Lindblom</b></div>
<div>
<b>11. Nolan Patrick</b></div>
<div>
<b><br /></b></div>
<div>
If both of these two contribute in any significant way this season, the Flyers will be a legitimate Stanley Cup contender. If one of them does, they'll be a playoff team. If neither Lindblom nor Patrick is able to make the team or they perform at a lower level than we expect of them, then it might be another long season in Philadelphia. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>12. Mike Vecchione</b></div>
<div>
<b><br /></b></div>
<div>
I'll like Charlie O'Connor take this one, via his <a href="https://www.broadstreethockey.com/2017/7/10/15945002/philadelphia-flyers-prospects-development-camp-2017-notes-analysis-observations" target="_blank">Development Camp Observations</a>: </div>
<blockquote>
<i>Considering the fact that Mike Vecchione is six years older than the youngest players at this development camp, it’s fair to say that he should appear head-and-shoulders above his peers. But a player still has to go out there and legitimately look that good, which Vecchione did with ease this weekend. He was one of the best skaters at the camp, and also had one of the better shots. As for physicality, despite not being an especially big player, his functional strength was obvious. This is a polished hockey player who knows the tricks of the trade, from disguising his intentions pre-shot, to getting off decent chances even with a defenseman hanging all over him. I’m not sure what his ceiling truly is, but it was clear that Vecchione was too good for this camp.</i></blockquote>
<div>
<b>13. Taylor Leier</b></div>
<div>
<b>14. Mikhail Vorobyov</b></div>
<div>
<b>15. Radel Fazleev</b></div>
<div>
<div>
<b>16. German Rubtsov</b></div>
<div>
<b>17. Nicolas Aube-Kubel</b></div>
</div>
<div>
<b><br /></b></div>
<div>
Of these five who project to probably be Phantoms (sans Rubtsov, who is too young), Leier's probably the most likely to see NHL minutes this season. But I was very impressed by the Russians at development camp, and I would not have any problem with plugging any of these five into a Flyers lineup this season. That's impressive, considering we're now at 17 players under the age of 25 who could be considered NHL-ready. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<div>
<b>18. Mark Friedman</b></div>
<div>
<b><br /></b></div>
<div>
I'll defer to Charlie again:</div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i>This was Mark Friedman’s fourth development camp, and the fourth time that saw him treat every drill as if it would decide the fate of his career. The 21-year old blueliner was a menace, showcasing expert pokechecking to disrupt forwards and surprising strength to separate them from the puck.Every year, Friedman dominates in these drills. It’s tough to know if it’s just because he takes them more seriously than anyone else at camp, or if he’s simply that good. My guess is that he approaches these camps with a major chip on his shoulder, trying to ward off the “he’s too small!” tag and to make a name for himself in an organization that has at least six defensemen under the age of 25 above him on the depth chart. All I know is that his compete level always stands out, and yet again, he looked the part of a blue chip prospect in the on-ice portion of development camp. I’m excited that now I will finally be able to watch him play meaningful hockey this year with the Phantoms and determine how much of his dominance in drills translates to games.</i></blockquote>
<div>
He's finished at Bowling Green now, and it will be interesting to see how he compares to Sanheim, Myers, TJ Brennan, and the rest of the Phantoms defensemen. </div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>19. Wade Allison</b></div>
<div>
<b>20. Pascal Laberge</b></div>
<div>
<b>21. Isaac Ratcliffe</b></div>
<div>
<b> </b></div>
<div>
These three will almost certainly not see NHL time until next year (at the very earliest) or the following (more likely, for Laberge in particular). However, you know what they've done at the college/junior level and we can project ranges for them to turn into NHL players. I rank them in this order because I think Allison's shooting ability is more valuable to the team than Laberge's balanced skill set (without any single dominant trait) and Ratcliffe's obvious need for improvement. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>22. Anthony Stolarz</b></div>
<div>
<b>23. Alex Lyon</b></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
I would have liked to see more faith in Stolarz from the front office this summer, for three reasons. First, committing 25-30 NHL games to him would have been a good way to ease him into a full-time workload. Second, I think I'm going to really hate the Elliot-Neuvirth tandem. And third, by keeping Stolarz in the AHL, it's also taking away from Alex Lyon's workload. For an organization that always seems ultra concerned with prospect development, paying a 32 year old and The Worst Goalie In The NHL Last Season to stand in the way of a 23-year-old kid just seems like bad asset management. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<div>
<b>24. Carter Hart</b></div>
<div>
<b>25. Felix Sandstrom</b></div>
</div>
<div>
<b><br /></b></div>
<div>
Many people are saying that Sandstrom has overtaken Hart as a prospect. But I've had Hart ranked higher since the beginning of time, and I'm certainly not going to flip-flop them now. They're at least two years away from contributing to the NHL club, so we can cross that bridge when we get to it. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>26. David Kase</b></div>
<div>
<b><br /></b></div>
<div>
He's hurt by the fact that he didn't attend development camp, and by the fact that he plays in Europe, and by the fact that he's Czech so his international teams always kind of stink. But I think he's going to be a fine player, similar to the 13-17 group, who will probably be an NHL-AHL tweener. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>27. Kirill Ustimenko</b></div>
<div>
<b><br /></b></div>
<div>
He's the Rinaldo pick. He's probably ranked too low at 27, I should have put him in the top ten. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>28. Morgan Frost</b></div>
<div>
<b><br /></b></div>
<div>
Brayden Schenn is going to score 80 points on his way to a Stanley Cup run this season, and Morgan Frost is going to turn into a bust. #ShouldOfKept</div>
Jayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13632002302783356696noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8869544188552161021.post-53379400307852160312017-05-30T17:28:00.000-04:002017-05-30T17:28:17.416-04:00Sean Couturier Is Very GoodIf you haven't been following Charlie O'Connor's season reviews on Broad Street Hockey this Spring, you absolutely should be. Today's edition was probably the most interesting yet:<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en">
<div dir="ltr" lang="en">
2016-17 Flyers season review: Sean Couturier remains the most polarizing Flyer <a href="https://t.co/c9EiNEpBZj">https://t.co/c9EiNEpBZj</a></div>
— Charlie O'Connor (@BSH_Charlie) <a href="https://twitter.com/BSH_Charlie/status/869595137055358978">May 30, 2017</a></blockquote>
In case you have never interacted with me in person or online before, I am of the belief that Sean Couturier is severely underrated by the Flyers, their fans, and the NHL community as a whole. I believe he should already be in the annual conversation for the Selke Trophy, and it's laughable that his two highest finishes were 8th and 9th.<br />
<br />
Charlie's post from this morning provided the underlying reason for the discrepancy between the wrong opinion (that he's overrated) and the correct opinion (underrated): Couturier excels at even strength and on the penalty kill, but lacks the raw scoring numbers that come with success on the power play.<br />
<br />
My counter to that would be about 80-85% of hockey is played at even strength, and another 5-10% is on the penalty kill. Couturier, at worst, is an incredibly useful player for the vast majority of a hockey game.<br />
<br />
And at best? He's among the best even-strength players in the entire NHL. Please allow me to do the professorial thing and direct you to my own work as a source:<br />
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en">
<div dir="ltr" lang="en">
Of the 233 forwards who've played 1500+ 5v5 mins the last 2 seasons, Couturier ranks 13th in xGF% and FIRST in Quality of Competition (xG) <a href="https://t.co/y2PIJb4mb8">https://t.co/y2PIJb4mb8</a></div>
— Jay (@jaylike) <a href="https://twitter.com/jaylike/status/869605177254440960">May 30, 2017</a></blockquote>
Those numbers come from Corsica (of course). The guys ahead of Couturier in terms of xGF% are exactly who you'd expect: Hornqvist, Bergeron, Niederreiter, Marchand, Hertl, Koivu, Toffoli, Thornton, Pominville, McDavid, Hagelin, Malkin.<br />
<br />
If we just accept that Bergeron, Marchand, Thornton, McDavid, and Malkin are five of the twenty best forwards in the league, there are two Penguins, three Wild, a Shark, and a King that are maybe scoring a bit higher than we'd expect here. Let's take a look at the <a href="http://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/hexesEVf/1617/PIT/wrap" target="_blank">HockeyViz </a>forward networks:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>Hornqvist plays almost all of his time with either and/or both of Crosby and Malkin</li>
<li>Hagelin either plays with Bonino and Kessel or one of Crosby/Malkin</li>
<li>Niederreiter, Koivu, and Pominville are part of Minnesota's stacked top nine, which cycles forwards around but almost always has two good-if-not-great players per line</li>
<li>Hertl plays with Thornton or Pavelski</li>
<li>Toffoli plays with Carter or Kopitar</li>
</ul>
<div>
Which leads me to where I went next after that basic tweet about Couturier's Corsica-generated stats. As good as 13th/233 in terms of Expected Goals For Percentage makes him look, I'm sure he'll look even better when we account for his usual linemates. And when we <i>also</i> factor in the fact that he almost always gets stuck defending the opponent's top line, he'll look like maybe the best center in the entire NHL. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
But first, here's how I accounted for teammates and competition. Corsica actually has three metrics for these already - based on ice time, Corsi, and xG. I threw out Corsi because I think it stinks, and I took averages of each player's quality of teammates and competition relative to the league averages for QoT/QoC based on ice time and expected goals. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><u>High Quality of Teammates</u></b></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Here's the top of the list of players with the highest jQoT (or, in English, the best on-ice linemates):</div>
<div>
</div>
<br />
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; text-align: center; width: 433px;" x:str="">
<colgroup><col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 7716; mso-width-source: userset; width: 158pt;" width="211"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 3437; mso-width-source: userset; width: 71pt;" width="94"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 2340; mso-width-source: userset; width: 48pt;" width="64"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td class="xl22" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; width: 48pt;" width="64"></td>
<td class="xl22" style="width: 158pt;" width="211"><b><u>Player</u></b></td>
<td class="xl22" style="width: 71pt;" width="94"><b><u>Team</u></b></td>
<td class="xl23" style="width: 48pt;" width="64" x:str="jQOT"> <b><u>jQOT </u></b></td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">1</td>
<td>ZACH.PARISE</td>
<td>MIN</td>
<td class="xl24" x:num="2.6964806866952831">
2.696 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">2</td>
<td>NICKLAS.BACKSTROM</td>
<td>WSH</td>
<td class="xl24" x:num="2.6314806866952836">
2.631 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">3</td>
<td>PHIL.KESSEL</td>
<td>PIT</td>
<td class="xl24" x:num="2.5364806866952829">
2.536 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">4</td>
<td>ANZE.KOPITAR</td>
<td>L.A</td>
<td class="xl24" x:num="2.3814806866952836">
2.381 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">5</td>
<td>CHRIS.KUNITZ</td>
<td>PIT</td>
<td class="xl24" x:num="2.3564806866952814">
2.356 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">6</td>
<td>SIDNEY.CROSBY</td>
<td>PIT</td>
<td class="xl24" x:num="2.3114806866952833">
2.311 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">7</td>
<td>CHARLIE.COYLE</td>
<td>MIN</td>
<td class="xl24" x:num="2.2214806866952834">
2.221 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">8</td>
<td>JEFF.CARTER</td>
<td>L.A</td>
<td class="xl24" x:num="2.2164806866952826">
2.216 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">9</td>
<td>JOE.PAVELSKI</td>
<td>S.J</td>
<td class="xl24" x:num="2.2064806866952829">
2.206 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">10</td>
<td>JASON.ZUCKER</td>
<td>MIN</td>
<td class="xl24" x:num="2.1914806866952823">
2.191 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">11</td>
<td>DUSTIN.BROWN</td>
<td>L.A</td>
<td class="xl24" x:num="2.1114806866952822">
2.111 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">12</td>
<td>T.J..OSHIE</td>
<td>WSH</td>
<td class="xl24" x:num="2.0764806866952839">
2.076 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">13</td>
<td>TYLER.TOFFOLI</td>
<td>L.A</td>
<td class="xl24" x:num="2.0764806866952803">
2.076 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">14</td>
<td>DWIGHT.KING</td>
<td>L.A/MTL</td>
<td class="xl24" x:num="2.0714806866952848">
2.071 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">15</td>
<td>DAVID.PASTRNAK</td>
<td>BOS</td>
<td class="xl24" x:num="2.0014806866952828">
2.001 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">16</td>
<td>VIKTOR.ARVIDSSON</td>
<td>NSH</td>
<td class="xl24" x:num="1.9264806866952817">
1.926 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">17</td>
<td>TANNER.PEARSON</td>
<td>L.A</td>
<td class="xl24" x:num="1.8864806866952808">
1.886 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">18</td>
<td>DAVID.PERRON</td>
<td>ANA/PIT/STL</td>
<td class="xl24" x:num="1.8614806866952822">
1.861 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">19</td>
<td>MIKE.RIBEIRO</td>
<td>NSH</td>
<td class="xl24" x:num="1.8514806866952824">
1.851 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">20</td>
<td>ALEX.STEEN</td>
<td>STL</td>
<td class="xl24" x:num="1.7864806866952847">
1.786 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">21</td>
<td>FILIP.FORSBERG</td>
<td>NSH</td>
<td class="xl24" x:num="1.7764806866952831">
1.776 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">22</td>
<td>MIKAEL.GRANLUND</td>
<td>MIN</td>
<td class="xl24" x:num="1.7714806866952824">
1.771 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">23</td>
<td>MILAN.LUCIC</td>
<td>L.A/EDM</td>
<td class="xl24" x:num="1.7614806866952843">
1.761 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">24</td>
<td>MIKKO.KOIVU</td>
<td>MIN</td>
<td class="xl24" x:num="1.6914806866952823">
1.691 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">25</td>
<td>DAVID.KREJCI</td>
<td>BOS</td>
<td class="xl24" x:num="1.6814806866952825">
1.681 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">26</td>
<td>JAMES.NEAL</td>
<td>NSH</td>
<td class="xl24" x:num="1.6564806866952821">
1.656 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">27</td>
<td>COREY.PERRY</td>
<td>ANA</td>
<td class="xl24" x:num="1.6314806866952818">
1.631 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">28</td>
<td>NIKOLAJ.EHLERS</td>
<td>WPG</td>
<td class="xl24" x:num="1.6264806866952846">
1.626 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">29</td>
<td>TOMAS.PLEKANEC</td>
<td>MTL</td>
<td class="xl24" x:num="1.6064806866952814">
1.606 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">30</td>
<td>LEO.KOMAROV</td>
<td>TOR</td>
<td class="xl24" x:num="1.5914806866952809">
1.591 </td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<br /><b><u>Low Quality of Teammates</u></b><br /><br /><script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><br />
<div>
And, at the opposite end of the spectrum, the guys who get stuck playing with the shittiest teammates:</div>
<div>
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; text-align: center; width: 433px;" x:str="">
<colgroup><col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 7716; mso-width-source: userset; width: 158pt;" width="211"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 3437; mso-width-source: userset; width: 71pt;" width="94"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 2340; mso-width-source: userset; width: 48pt;" width="64"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td class="xl24" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; width: 48pt;" width="64"></td>
<td class="xl24" style="width: 158pt;" width="211">Player</td>
<td class="xl24" style="width: 71pt;" width="94">Team</td>
<td class="xl25" style="width: 48pt;" width="64" x:str="jQOT"> jQOT </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">1</td>
<td>SHANE.DOAN</td>
<td>ARI</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-3.4785193133047372">
(3.479)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">2</td>
<td>BO.HORVAT</td>
<td>VAN</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-3.3835193133047365">
(3.384)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">3</td>
<td>HENRIK.SEDIN</td>
<td>VAN</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-3.3535193133047372">
(3.354)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">4</td>
<td>JOHN.MITCHELL</td>
<td>COL</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-3.3235193133047378">
(3.324)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">5</td>
<td>ANTHONY.DUCLAIR</td>
<td>ARI</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-3.1885193133047363">
(3.189)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">6</td>
<td>JORDAN.MARTINOOK</td>
<td>ARI</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-2.9985193133047385">
(2.999)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">7</td>
<td>BLAKE.COMEAU</td>
<td>COL</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-2.8385193133047348">
(2.839)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">8</td>
<td>SVEN.BAERTSCHI</td>
<td>VAN</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-2.8335193133047358">
(2.834)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">9</td>
<td>DANIEL.SEDIN</td>
<td>VAN</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-2.7635193133047355">
(2.764)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">10</td>
<td>MIKHAIL.GRIGORENKO</td>
<td>COL</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-2.6485193133047371">
(2.649)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">11</td>
<td>NATHAN.MACKINNON</td>
<td>COL</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-2.5235193133047353">
(2.524)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">12</td>
<td>VIKTOR.STALBERG</td>
<td>NYR/CAR/OTT</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-2.5185193133047363">
(2.519)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">13</td>
<td>RADIM.VRBATA</td>
<td>VAN/ARI</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-2.5185193133047346">
(2.519)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">14</td>
<td>MATT.DUCHENE</td>
<td>COL</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-2.4135193133047377">
(2.414)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">15</td>
<td>TOBIAS.RIEDER</td>
<td>ARI</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-2.318519313304737">
(2.319)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">16</td>
<td>MAX.DOMI</td>
<td>ARI</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-2.3085193133047355">
(2.309)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">17</td>
<td>JAMIE.MCGINN</td>
<td>ANA/BUF/ARI</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-2.2085193133047376">
(2.209)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">18</td>
<td>TAYLOR.HALL</td>
<td>EDM/N.J</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-2.1385193133047355">
(2.139)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">19</td>
<td>ALEX.BURROWS</td>
<td>VAN/OTT</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-2.1385193133047355">
(2.139)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">20</td>
<td>CARL.SODERBERG</td>
<td>COL</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-2.118519313304736">
(2.119)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">21</td>
<td>MATT.STAJAN</td>
<td>CGY</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-2.0935193133047356">
(2.094)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">22</td>
<td>CHRIS.VANDEVELDE</td>
<td>PHI</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-2.0685193133047353">
(2.069)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">23</td>
<td>MARK.LETESTU</td>
<td>EDM</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-2.0435193133047385">
(2.044)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">24</td>
<td>GABRIEL.LANDESKOG</td>
<td>COL</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-2.0435193133047367">
(2.044)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">25</td>
<td>JOHNNY.GAUDREAU</td>
<td>CGY</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-2.0385193133047359">
(2.039)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">26</td>
<td>MARTIN.HANZAL</td>
<td>ARI/MIN</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-1.9535193133047368">
(1.954)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">27</td>
<td>PIERRE-EDOUARD.BELLEMARE</td>
<td>PHI</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-1.8935193133047346">
(1.894)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">28</td>
<td>JAROMIR.JAGR</td>
<td>FLA</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-1.8385193133047366">
(1.839)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">29</td>
<td>MICHAEL.FROLIK</td>
<td>CGY</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-1.8035193133047347">
(1.804)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">30</td>
<td>JAROME.IGINLA</td>
<td>COL/L.A</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-1.7385193133047352">
(1.739)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">31</td>
<td>JOHN.TAVARES</td>
<td>NYI</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-1.6985193133047378">
(1.699)</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
<div>
It's very hard not to feel bad for Tavares and Gaudreau. At least they'll be in Toronto and Philadelphia (respectively) soon enough. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><u>High Quality of Competition</u></b></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
And now, we shift our focus to competition. Here's who has to face the toughest opponents:</div>
<div>
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; text-align: center; width: 433px;" x:str="">
<colgroup><col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 7716; mso-width-source: userset; width: 158pt;" width="211"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 3437; mso-width-source: userset; width: 71pt;" width="94"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 2340; mso-width-source: userset; width: 48pt;" width="64"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td class="xl24" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; width: 48pt;" width="64"></td>
<td class="xl24" style="width: 158pt;" width="211">Player</td>
<td class="xl24" style="width: 71pt;" width="94">Team</td>
<td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">jQOC</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">1</td>
<td>JONATHAN.TOEWS</td>
<td>CHI</td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="0.57796137339055065"> 0.578 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">2</td>
<td>LEO.KOMAROV</td>
<td>TOR</td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="0.53796137339055328"> 0.538 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">3</td>
<td>NAZEM.KADRI</td>
<td>TOR</td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="0.50296137339055313"> 0.503 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">4</td>
<td>NATHAN.MACKINNON</td>
<td>COL</td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="0.47296137339055022"> 0.473 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">5</td>
<td>ARTEM.ANISIMOV</td>
<td>CHI</td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="0.46296137339055221"> 0.463 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">6</td>
<td>NICKLAS.BACKSTROM</td>
<td>WSH</td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="0.44796137339055164"> 0.448 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">7</td>
<td>PATRICE.BERGERON</td>
<td>BOS</td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="0.43796137339055186"> 0.438 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">8</td>
<td>RYAN.KESLER</td>
<td>ANA</td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="0.43296137339055107"> 0.433 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">9</td>
<td>GABRIEL.LANDESKOG</td>
<td>COL</td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="0.42796137339055385"> 0.428 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">10</td>
<td>PAUL.STASTNY</td>
<td>STL</td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="0.41796137339055406"> 0.418 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">11</td>
<td>BLAKE.WHEELER</td>
<td>WPG</td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="0.41296137339054972"> 0.413 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">12</td>
<td>DEREK.STEPAN</td>
<td>NYR</td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="0.4079613733905525">
0.408 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">13</td>
<td>JAKOB.SILFVERBERG</td>
<td>ANA</td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="0.4079613733905525">
0.408 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">14</td>
<td>PATRICK.KANE</td>
<td>CHI</td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="0.40296137339054994"> 0.403 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">15</td>
<td>BRAD.MARCHAND</td>
<td>BOS</td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="0.40296137339054994"> 0.403 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">16</td>
<td>MATT.DUCHENE</td>
<td>COL</td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="0.39796137339055093"> 0.398 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">17</td>
<td>ARTEMI.PANARIN</td>
<td>CHI</td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="0.39796137339055093"> 0.398 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">18</td>
<td>RYAN.O'REILLY</td>
<td>BUF</td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="0.39296137339055015"> 0.393 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">19</td>
<td>JOHN.TAVARES</td>
<td>NYI</td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="0.37796137339055136"> 0.378 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">20</td>
<td class="xl25"><span style="background-color: #f6b26b;">SEAN.COUTURIER</span></td>
<td class="xl25">PHI</td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="0.3679613733905498">
0.368 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">21</td>
<td>TRAVIS.ZAJAC</td>
<td>N.J</td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="0.36296137339055079"> 0.363 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">22</td>
<td>DAVID.PERRON</td>
<td>ANA/PIT/STL</td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="0.35796137339055356"> 0.358 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">23</td>
<td>DANIEL.SEDIN</td>
<td>VAN</td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="0.35796137339055178"> 0.358 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">24</td>
<td>KYLE.PALMIERI</td>
<td>N.J</td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="0.35296137339055278"> 0.353 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">25</td>
<td>ANDREW.COGLIANO</td>
<td>ANA</td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="0.352961373390551">
0.353 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">26</td>
<td>MAX.PACIORETTY</td>
<td>MTL</td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="0.34796137339055377"> 0.348 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">27</td>
<td>CLAUDE.GIROUX</td>
<td>PHI</td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="0.34796137339055022"> 0.348 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">28</td>
<td>T.J..OSHIE</td>
<td>WSH</td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="0.33796137339055221"> 0.338 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">29</td>
<td>ALEX.OVECHKIN</td>
<td>WSH</td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="0.33796137339055043"> 0.338 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">30</td>
<td>ALEX.STEEN</td>
<td>STL</td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="0.32796137339055242"> 0.328 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">31</td>
<td>HENRIK.SEDIN</td>
<td>VAN</td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="0.32796137339055065"> 0.328 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">32</td>
<td>JAROMIR.JAGR</td>
<td>FLA</td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="0.32796137339055065"> 0.328 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">33</td>
<td>CONNOR.MCDAVID</td>
<td>EDM</td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="0.32296137339055164"> 0.323 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">34</td>
<td>JORDAN.STAAL</td>
<td>CAR</td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="0.31796137339055264"> 0.318 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">35</td>
<td>MIKKO.KOIVU</td>
<td>MIN</td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="0.30796137339055107"> 0.308 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">36</td>
<td>JOE.THORNTON</td>
<td>S.J</td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="0.30296137339055207"> 0.303 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">37</td>
<td>ALEKSANDER.BARKOV</td>
<td>FLA</td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="0.30296137339055029"> 0.303 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">38</td>
<td>RICK.NASH</td>
<td>NYR</td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="0.29796137339055129"> 0.298 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">39</td>
<td>JAMIE.BENN</td>
<td>DAL</td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="0.28796137339055328"> 0.288 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">40</td>
<td>HENRIK.ZETTERBERG</td>
<td>DET</td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="0.2829613733905525">
0.283 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">41</td>
<td>SIDNEY.CROSBY</td>
<td>PIT</td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="0.2829613733905525">
0.283 </td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
<div>
Is it self-serving of me to include "Upcoming Annual Selke Finalist Sasha Barkov" and Crosby at the bottom of this list? Probably. But Couturier, if you'll notice, faces tougher competition than either of them. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
However, this certainly cements Toews, Bergeron, Backstrom, and Kesler as the guys in the "Yearly Selke Favorites Until Further Notice" group. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><u>Low Quality of Competition</u></b></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Is anyone noteworthy going to pop up in the list of most sheltered players?</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; text-align: center; width: 433px;" x:str="">
<colgroup><col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 7716; mso-width-source: userset; width: 158pt;" width="211"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 3437; mso-width-source: userset; width: 71pt;" width="94"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 2340; mso-width-source: userset; width: 48pt;" width="64"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td class="xl24" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; width: 48pt;" width="64"></td>
<td class="xl24" style="width: 158pt;" width="211">Player</td>
<td class="xl24" style="width: 71pt;" width="94">Team</td>
<td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">jQOC</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">1</td>
<td>CHRIS.TIERNEY</td>
<td>S.J</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-0.75203862660944942"> (0.752)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">2</td>
<td>MARK.LETESTU</td>
<td>EDM</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-0.70203862660945049"> (0.702)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">3</td>
<td>CHRIS.VANDEVELDE</td>
<td>PHI</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-0.67203862660945113"> (0.672)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">4</td>
<td>TOM.WILSON</td>
<td>WSH</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-0.67203862660944935"> (0.672)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">5</td>
<td>MATT.STAJAN</td>
<td>CGY</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-0.66703862660945035"> (0.667)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">6</td>
<td>DOMINIC.MOORE</td>
<td>NYR/BOS</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-0.65203862660945155"> (0.652)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">7</td>
<td>RILEY.NASH</td>
<td>CAR/BOS</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-0.58203862660944949"> (0.582)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">8</td>
<td>MATT.CULLEN</td>
<td>PIT</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-0.55203862660944836"> (0.552)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">9</td>
<td>JASON.CHIMERA</td>
<td>WSH/NYI</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-0.54203862660944857"> (0.542)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">10</td>
<td>PIERRE-EDOUARD.BELLEMARE</td>
<td>PHI</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-0.52703862660944978"> (0.527)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">11</td>
<td>TREVOR.LEWIS</td>
<td>L.A</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-0.52203862660945077"> (0.522)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">12</td>
<td>RYAN.SPOONER</td>
<td>BOS</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-0.51703862660944999"> (0.517)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">13</td>
<td>ANDRE.BURAKOVSKY</td>
<td>WSH</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-0.51203862660945099"> (0.512)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">14</td>
<td>NICK.BONINO</td>
<td>PIT</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-0.51203862660945099"> (0.512)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">15</td>
<td>BRIAN.BOYLE</td>
<td>T.B/TOR</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-0.5070386266094502">
(0.507)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">16</td>
<td>TORREY.MITCHELL</td>
<td>MTL</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-0.50703862660944843"> (0.507)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">17</td>
<td>COLTON.SCEVIOUR</td>
<td>DAL/FLA</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-0.49703862660945219"> (0.497)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">18</td>
<td>LARS.ELLER</td>
<td>MTL/WSH</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-0.48203862660944985"> (0.482)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">19</td>
<td>VIKTOR.STALBERG</td>
<td>NYR/CAR/OTT</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-0.47203862660945184"> (0.472)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">20</td>
<td>WILLIAM.KARLSSON</td>
<td>CBJ</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-0.46703862660945106"> (0.467)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">21</td>
<td>SCOTT.HARTNELL</td>
<td>CBJ</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-0.45703862660945127"> (0.457)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">22</td>
<td>ERIK.HAULA</td>
<td>MIN</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-0.43703862660944992"> (0.437)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">23</td>
<td>DANIEL.WINNIK</td>
<td>TOR/WSH</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-0.43203862660944914"> (0.432)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">24</td>
<td>RILEY.SHEAHAN</td>
<td>DET</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-0.37203862660944864"> (0.372)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">25</td>
<td>MIKE.RIBEIRO</td>
<td>NSH</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-0.37203862660944864"> (0.372)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">26</td>
<td>DALE.WEISE</td>
<td>CHI/MTL/PHI</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-0.36703862660945141"> (0.367)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">27</td>
<td>DWIGHT.KING</td>
<td>L.A/MTL</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-0.36703862660945141"> (0.367)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">28</td>
<td>MATT.MOULSON</td>
<td>BUF</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-0.36703862660944964"> (0.367)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">29</td>
<td>JOHN.MITCHELL</td>
<td>COL</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-0.35703862660944985"> (0.357)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">30</td>
<td>THOMAS.VANEK</td>
<td>MIN/DET/FLA</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-0.35203862660945084"> (0.352)</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
<div>
NHL coaching these days seems like it's primarily just making sure your shitty players only get to play against other shitty players. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><u>Largest Difference Between Teammates and Competition</u></b></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
But what if we compare teammates and competition? Who gets stuck with easy matchups, or good teammates and bad opponents?</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; text-align: center; width: 561px;" x:str="">
<colgroup><col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 7716; mso-width-source: userset; width: 158pt;" width="211"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 3437; mso-width-source: userset; width: 71pt;" width="94"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 2340; mso-width-source: userset; width: 48pt;" width="64"></col>
<col span="2" style="mso-width-alt: 2340; mso-width-source: userset; width: 48pt;" width="64"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td class="xl24" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; width: 48pt;" width="64"></td>
<td class="xl24" style="width: 158pt;" width="211">Player</td>
<td class="xl24" style="width: 71pt;" width="94">Team</td>
<td class="xl25" style="width: 48pt;" width="64" x:str="jQOT"> jQOT </td>
<td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">jQOC</td>
<td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">/\Qual</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">1</td>
<td>PHIL.KESSEL</td>
<td>PIT</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="2.5364806866952776">
2.536 </td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-0.11703862660945319"> (0.117)</td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="2.6535193133047308">
2.654 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">2</td>
<td>ZACH.PARISE</td>
<td>MIN</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="2.6964806866952777">
2.696 </td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="0.15296137339054638"> 0.153 </td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="2.5435193133047314">
2.544 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">3</td>
<td>DWIGHT.KING</td>
<td>L.A/MTL</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="2.0714806866952795">
2.071 </td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-0.36703862660945497"> (0.367)</td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="2.4385193133047345">
2.439 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">4</td>
<td>DUSTIN.BROWN</td>
<td>L.A</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="2.1114806866952769">
2.111 </td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-0.2520386266094512">
(0.252)</td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="2.3635193133047281">
2.364 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">5</td>
<td>CHRIS.KUNITZ</td>
<td>PIT</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="2.3564806866952761">
2.356 </td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="4.2961373390545177E-2"> 0.043 </td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="2.3135193133047309">
2.314 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">6</td>
<td>CHARLIE.COYLE</td>
<td>MIN</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="2.2214806866952781">
2.221 </td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-5.203862660945191E-2"> (0.052)</td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="2.27351931330473">
2.274 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">7</td>
<td>ANZE.KOPITAR</td>
<td>L.A</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="2.3814806866952782">
2.381 </td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="0.12796137339054781"> 0.128 </td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="2.2535193133047304">
2.254 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">8</td>
<td>MIKE.RIBEIRO</td>
<td>NSH</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="1.8514806866952771">
1.851 </td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-0.37203862660945219"> (0.372)</td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="2.2235193133047293">
2.224 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">9</td>
<td>NICKLAS.BACKSTROM</td>
<td>WSH</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="2.6314806866952782">
2.631 </td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="0.44796137339054631"> 0.448 </td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="2.1835193133047319">
2.184 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">10</td>
<td>JASON.ZUCKER</td>
<td>MIN</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="2.191480686695277">
2.191 </td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="2.7961373390544608E-2"> 0.028 </td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="2.1635193133047323">
2.164 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">11</td>
<td>JEFF.CARTER</td>
<td>L.A</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="2.2164806866952773">
2.216 </td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="0.12796137339054603"> 0.128 </td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="2.0885193133047313">
2.089 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">12</td>
<td>VIKTOR.ARVIDSSON</td>
<td>NSH</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="1.9264806866952764">
1.926 </td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-0.11703862660945141"> (0.117)</td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="2.0435193133047278">
2.044 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">13</td>
<td>SIDNEY.CROSBY</td>
<td>PIT</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="2.311480686695278">
2.311 </td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="0.28296137339054717"> 0.283 </td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="2.0285193133047308">
2.029 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">14</td>
<td>NICK.BONINO</td>
<td>PIT</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="1.4514806866952767">
1.451 </td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-0.51203862660945454"> (0.512)</td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="1.9635193133047313">
1.964 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">15</td>
<td>TYLER.TOFFOLI</td>
<td>L.A</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="2.076480686695275">
2.076 </td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="0.11796137339054802"> 0.118 </td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="1.9585193133047269">
1.959 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">16</td>
<td>JOE.PAVELSKI</td>
<td>S.J</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="2.2064806866952775">
2.206 </td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="0.26296137339054759"> 0.263 </td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="1.9435193133047299">
1.944 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">17</td>
<td>DAVID.PASTRNAK</td>
<td>BOS</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="2.0014806866952775">
2.001 </td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="8.2961373390547877E-2"> 0.083 </td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="1.9185193133047296">
1.919 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">18</td>
<td>TANNER.PEARSON</td>
<td>L.A</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="1.8864806866952755">
1.886 </td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-7.0386266094537575E-3"> (0.007)</td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="1.8935193133047292">
1.894 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">19</td>
<td>CALLE.JARNKROK</td>
<td>NSH</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="1.521480686695277">
1.521 </td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-0.33703862660945205"> (0.337)</td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="1.8585193133047291">
1.859 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">20</td>
<td>COREY.PERRY</td>
<td>ANA</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="1.6314806866952765">
1.631 </td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-0.16203862660945134"> (0.162)</td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="1.7935193133047278">
1.794 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">21</td>
<td>T.J..OSHIE</td>
<td>WSH</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="2.0764806866952785">
2.076 </td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="0.33796137339054688"> 0.338 </td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="1.7385193133047316">
1.739 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">22</td>
<td>COLIN.WILSON</td>
<td>NSH</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="1.4264806866952782">
1.426 </td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-0.28703862660945312"> (0.287)</td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="1.7135193133047313">
1.714 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">23</td>
<td>FILIP.FORSBERG</td>
<td>NSH</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="1.7764806866952778">
1.776 </td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="7.7961373390545319E-2"> 0.078 </td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="1.6985193133047325">
1.699 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">24</td>
<td>MILAN.LUCIC</td>
<td>L.A/EDM</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="1.761480686695279">
1.761 </td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="6.7961373390547308E-2"> 0.068 </td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="1.6935193133047317">
1.694 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">25</td>
<td>ANDRE.BURAKOVSKY</td>
<td>WSH</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="1.1514806866952778">
1.151 </td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-0.51203862660945454"> (0.512)</td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="1.6635193133047323">
1.664 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">26</td>
<td>TREVOR.LEWIS</td>
<td>L.A</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="1.1214806866952767">
1.121 </td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-0.52203862660945433"> (0.522)</td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="1.643519313304731">
1.644 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">27</td>
<td>ALEX.GALCHENYUK</td>
<td>MTL</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="1.4464806866952795">
1.446 </td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-0.19203862660945425"> (0.192)</td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="1.6385193133047338">
1.639 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">28</td>
<td>ALEX.WENNBERG</td>
<td>CBJ</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="1.566480686695277">
1.566 </td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="-3.7038626609453118E-2"> (0.037)</td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="1.6035193133047301">
1.604 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">29</td>
<td>JAMES.NEAL</td>
<td>NSH</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="1.6564806866952768">
1.656 </td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="6.7961373390547308E-2"> 0.068 </td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="1.5885193133047295">
1.589 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">30</td>
<td>DAVID.KREJCI</td>
<td>BOS</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="1.6814806866952772">
1.681 </td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="0.10296137339054745"> 0.103 </td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="1.5785193133047297">
1.579 </td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
<div>
I have a few thoughts:</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>Good hockey players, as a function of coaching, play with good players more than they play against good players. The league averages for jQOT and jQOC are similar, even though they seem skewed in this table. Good coaches - and bad ones, I guess - play their best players in situations that will benefit the team. This chart does not mean that all of these players are actually bad. Just, you know, maybe some of them are a bit inflated by the situations in which they are placed. Like, for example...</li>
<li>Phil Kessel is probably overpaid and overrated but you are out of your goddamn mind if you think I'm ever going to go to war to defend that take.</li>
<li>Chris Kunitz is absolutely overrated and I will very happily preach that from the mountaintop. </li>
<li>TJ Oshie is about to get paid like a man who plays with Backstrom and Ovechkin, and then he is not going to be playing with Backstrom and Ovechkin. </li>
<li>Not a good look for David Krejci - he should be outperforming Bergeron comparatively, and I think it's safe to say that he rarely does. </li>
</ul>
<div>
<b><u>Largest Difference Between Competition and Teammates</u></b></div>
</div>
<div>
<b><u><br /></u></b></div>
<div>
Okay, here's the big payoff. We've worked all afternoon for this. Who gets boned the most overall?</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; text-align: center; width: 561px;" x:str="">
<colgroup><col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 7716; mso-width-source: userset; width: 158pt;" width="211"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 3437; mso-width-source: userset; width: 71pt;" width="94"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 2340; mso-width-source: userset; width: 48pt;" width="64"></col>
<col span="2" style="mso-width-alt: 2340; mso-width-source: userset; width: 48pt;" width="64"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td class="xl24" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right; width: 48pt;" width="64"></td>
<td class="xl24" style="text-align: center; width: 158pt;" width="211">Player</td>
<td class="xl24" style="text-align: center; width: 71pt;" width="94">Team</td>
<td class="xl26" style="text-align: center; width: 48pt;" width="64" x:str="jQOT"> jQOT </td>
<td class="xl24" style="text-align: center; width: 48pt;" width="64">jQOC</td>
<td class="xl24" style="text-align: center; width: 48pt;" width="64">/\Qual</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">HENRIK.SEDIN</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">VAN</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-3.3535193133047176">
(3.354)</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.32796137339056664"> 0.328 </td>
<td class="xl28" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-3.6814806866952843">
(3.681)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">2</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">SHANE.DOAN</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">ARI</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-3.4785193133047176">
(3.479)</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-7.7038626609430949E-2"> (0.077)</td>
<td class="xl28" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-3.4014806866952867">
(3.401)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">3</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">BO.HORVAT</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">VAN</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-3.383519313304717">
(3.384)</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-0.1570386266094328">
(0.157)</td>
<td class="xl28" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-3.2264806866952842">
(3.226)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">4</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">DANIEL.SEDIN</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">VAN</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-2.763519313304716">
(2.764)</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.35796137339056777"> 0.358 </td>
<td class="xl28" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-3.1214806866952838">
(3.121)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">5</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">ANTHONY.DUCLAIR</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">ARI</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-3.1885193133047167">
(3.189)</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-0.14203862660943223"> (0.142)</td>
<td class="xl28" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-3.0464806866952845">
(3.046)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">6</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">NATHAN.MACKINNON</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">COL</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-2.5235193133047158">
(2.524)</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.47296137339056621"> 0.473 </td>
<td class="xl28" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-2.996480686695282">
(2.996)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">7</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">JOHN.MITCHELL</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">COL</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-3.3235193133047183">
(3.324)</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-0.35703862660943209"> (0.357)</td>
<td class="xl28" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-2.9664806866952862">
(2.966)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">8</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">JORDAN.MARTINOOK</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">ARI</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-2.998519313304719">
(2.999)</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-3.2038626609432796E-2"> (0.032)</td>
<td class="xl28" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-2.9664806866952862">
(2.966)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">9</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">MATT.DUCHENE</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">COL</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-2.4135193133047181">
(2.414)</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.39796137339056692"> 0.398 </td>
<td class="xl28" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-2.8114806866952851">
(2.811)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">10</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">BLAKE.COMEAU</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">COL</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-2.8385193133047153">
(2.839)</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-6.7038626609432939E-2"> (0.067)</td>
<td class="xl28" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-2.7714806866952824">
(2.771)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">11</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">RADIM.VRBATA</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">VAN/ARI</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-2.518519313304715">
(2.519)</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="7.7961373390570188E-2"> 0.078 </td>
<td class="xl28" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-2.5964806866952852">
(2.596)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">12</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">SVEN.BAERTSCHI</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">VAN</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-2.8335193133047163">
(2.834)</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-0.25203862660943166"> (0.252)</td>
<td class="xl28" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-2.5814806866952846">
(2.581)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">13</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">TOBIAS.RIEDER</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">ARI</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-2.3185193133047175">
(2.319)</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.23796137339056855"> 0.238 </td>
<td class="xl28" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-2.5564806866952861">
(2.556)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">14</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">MIKHAIL.GRIGORENKO</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">COL</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-2.6485193133047176">
(2.649)</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-0.12703862660943344"> (0.127)</td>
<td class="xl28" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-2.5214806866952841">
(2.521)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">15</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">GABRIEL.LANDESKOG</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">COL</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-2.0435193133047171">
(2.044)</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.42796137339056983"> 0.428 </td>
<td class="xl28" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-2.471480686695287">
(2.471)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">16</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">TAYLOR.HALL</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">EDM/N.J</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-2.138519313304716">
(2.139)</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.26796137339056791"> 0.268 </td>
<td class="xl28" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-2.4064806866952839">
(2.406)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">17</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">MAX.DOMI</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">ARI</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-2.3085193133047159">
(2.309)</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="8.7961373390568198E-2"> 0.088 </td>
<td class="xl28" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-2.3964806866952841">
(2.396)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">18</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">JAROMIR.JAGR</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">FLA</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.8385193133047171">
(1.839)</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.32796137339056664"> 0.328 </td>
<td class="xl28" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-2.1664806866952837">
(2.166)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">19</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">JOHNNY.GAUDREAU</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">CGY</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-2.0385193133047164">
(2.039)</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.107961373390566">
0.108 </td>
<td class="xl28" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-2.1464806866952824">
(2.146)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">20</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">JAMIE.MCGINN</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">ANA/BUF/ARI</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-2.2085193133047181">
(2.209)</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-9.2038626609433294E-2"> (0.092)</td>
<td class="xl28" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-2.1164806866952848">
(2.116)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">21</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">MARTIN.HANZAL</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">ARI/MIN</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.9535193133047173">
(1.954)</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.1529613733905677">
0.153 </td>
<td class="xl28" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-2.106480686695285">
(2.106)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">22</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">JOHN.TAVARES</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">NYI</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.6985193133047183">
(1.699)</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.37796137339056735"> 0.378 </td>
<td class="xl28" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-2.0764806866952856">
(2.076)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">23</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">CARL.SODERBERG</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">COL</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-2.1185193133047164">
(2.119)</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-6.2038626609430381E-2"> (0.062)</td>
<td class="xl28" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-2.0564806866952861">
(2.056)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">24</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">VIKTOR.STALBERG</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">NYR/CAR/OTT</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-2.5185193133047168">
(2.519)</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-0.47203862660943408"> (0.472)</td>
<td class="xl28" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-2.0464806866952827">
(2.046)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">25</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">ALEX.BURROWS</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">VAN/OTT</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-2.138519313304716">
(2.139)</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-0.19203862660943294"> (0.192)</td>
<td class="xl28" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.9464806866952831">
(1.946)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">26</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">MICHAEL.FROLIK</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">CGY</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.8035193133047152">
(1.804)</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-2.2038626609431233E-2"> (0.022)</td>
<td class="xl28" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.7814806866952839">
(1.781)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">27</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">JAROME.IGINLA</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">COL/L.A</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.7385193133047157">
(1.739)</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-5.7038626609431375E-2"> (0.057)</td>
<td class="xl28" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.6814806866952843">
(1.681)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">28</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">LOUI.ERIKSSON</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">BOS/VAN</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.5985193133047186">
(1.599)</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.2038626609431446E-2"> (0.012)</td>
<td class="xl28" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.5864806866952872">
(1.586)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">29</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">ARTEMI.PANARIN</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">CHI</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.0835193133047198">
(1.084)</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.39796137339056692"> 0.398 </td>
<td class="xl28" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.4814806866952868">
(1.481)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">30</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">SAM.REINHART</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">BUF</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.383519313304717">
(1.384)</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="8.2961373390567417E-2"> 0.083 </td>
<td class="xl28" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.4664806866952844">
(1.466)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">31</td>
<td class="xl25" style="text-align: center;"><span style="background-color: #f6b26b;">SEAN.COUTURIER</span></td>
<td class="xl25" style="text-align: center;">PHI</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.0785193133047173">
(1.079)</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.36796137339056578"> 0.368 </td>
<td class="xl28" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.4464806866952831">
(1.446)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">32</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">MATT.STAJAN</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">CGY</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-2.0935193133047161">
(2.094)</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-0.66703862660943258"> (0.667)</td>
<td class="xl28" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.4264806866952835">
(1.426)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">33</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">CHRIS.VANDEVELDE</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">PHI</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-2.0685193133047157">
(2.069)</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-0.67203862660943336"> (0.672)</td>
<td class="xl28" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.3964806866952824">
(1.396)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">34</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">JEAN-GABRIEL.PAGEAU</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">OTT</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.1635193133047181">
(1.164)</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.22796137339056877"> 0.228 </td>
<td class="xl28" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.3914806866952869">
(1.391)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">35</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">CONNOR.MCDAVID</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">EDM</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.0485193133047179">
(1.049)</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.32296137339056763"> 0.323 </td>
<td class="xl28" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.3714806866952856">
(1.371)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">36</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">PIERRE-E.BELLEMARE</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">PHI</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.893519313304715">
(1.894)</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-0.52703862660943201"> (0.527)</td>
<td class="xl28" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.366480686695283">
(1.366)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">37</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">JESPER.FAST</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">NYR</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.5485193133047179">
(1.549)</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-0.19203862660943471"> (0.192)</td>
<td class="xl28" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.3564806866952832">
(1.356)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">38</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">MARK.LETESTU</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">EDM</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-2.0435193133047189">
(2.044)</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-0.70203862660943273"> (0.702)</td>
<td class="xl28" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.3414806866952862">
(1.341)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">39</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">HENRIK.ZETTERBERG</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">DET</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.0535193133047169">
(1.054)</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.28296137339056848"> 0.283 </td>
<td class="xl28" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.3364806866952854">
(1.336)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center;" x:num="">40</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">JORDAN.STAAL</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">CAR</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.0035193133047162">
(1.004)</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.31796137339056862"> 0.318 </td>
<td class="xl28" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.3214806866952848">
(1.321)</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
<div>
You almost have to discount the Canucks, Coyotes, and Avalanche. They are all so bad that they're stacking the list. So let's cut them, and we'll go from 40 players down to 18 (and then bump it out to 25 just because):</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; text-align: center; width: 561px;" x:str="">
<colgroup><col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 7716; mso-width-source: userset; width: 158pt;" width="211"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 3437; mso-width-source: userset; width: 71pt;" width="94"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 2340; mso-width-source: userset; width: 48pt;" width="64"></col>
<col span="2" style="mso-width-alt: 2340; mso-width-source: userset; width: 48pt;" width="64"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td class="xl24" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center; width: 48pt;" width="64"></td>
<td class="xl24" style="text-align: center; width: 158pt;" width="211">Player</td>
<td class="xl24" style="text-align: center; width: 71pt;" width="94">Team</td>
<td class="xl26" style="text-align: center; width: 48pt;" width="64" x:str="jQOT"> jQOT </td>
<td class="xl24" style="text-align: center; width: 48pt;" width="64">jQOC</td>
<td class="xl24" style="text-align: center; width: 48pt;" width="64">/\Qual</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">TAYLOR.HALL</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">EDM/N.J</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-2.4072037914691808">
(2.407)</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.27229857819905412"> 0.272 </td>
<td class="xl28" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-2.679502369668235">
(2.680)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">2</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">JAROMIR.JAGR</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">FLA</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-2.1072037914691819">
(2.107)</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.33229857819905284"> 0.332 </td>
<td class="xl28" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-2.4395023696682347">
(2.440)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">3</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">JOHNNY.GAUDREAU</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">CGY</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-2.3072037914691812">
(2.307)</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.1122985781990522">
0.112 </td>
<td class="xl28" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-2.4195023696682334">
(2.420)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">4</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">JOHN.TAVARES</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">NYI</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.9672037914691831">
(1.967)</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.38229857819905355"> 0.382 </td>
<td class="xl28" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-2.3495023696682367">
(2.350)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">5</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">VIKTOR.STALBERG</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">NYR/CAR/OTT</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-2.7872037914691816">
(2.787)</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-0.46770142180094787"> (0.468)</td>
<td class="xl28" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-2.3195023696682338">
(2.320)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">6</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">MICHAEL.FROLIK</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">CGY</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-2.07220379146918">
(2.072)</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.7701421800945027E-2"> (0.018)</td>
<td class="xl28" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-2.054502369668235">
(2.055)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">7</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">ARTEMI.PANARIN</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">CHI</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.3522037914691847">
(1.352)</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.40229857819905313"> 0.402 </td>
<td class="xl28" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.7545023696682378">
(1.755)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">8</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">SAM.REINHART</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">BUF</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.6522037914691818">
(1.652)</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="8.7298578199053622E-2"> 0.087 </td>
<td class="xl28" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.7395023696682355">
(1.740)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">9</td>
<td class="xl25" style="text-align: center;"><span style="background-color: #f6b26b;">SEAN.COUTURIER</span></td>
<td class="xl25" style="text-align: center;">PHI</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.3472037914691821">
(1.347)</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.37229857819905199"> 0.372 </td>
<td class="xl28" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.7195023696682341">
(1.720)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">10</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">MATT.STAJAN</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">CGY</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-2.3622037914691809">
(2.362)</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-0.66270142180094638"> (0.663)</td>
<td class="xl28" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.6995023696682345">
(1.700)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">11</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">CHRIS.VANDEVELDE</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">PHI</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-2.3372037914691806">
(2.337)</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-0.66770142180094716"> (0.668)</td>
<td class="xl28" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.6695023696682334">
(1.670)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">12</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">JEAN-GABRIEL.PAGEAU</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">OTT</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.432203791469183">
(1.432)</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.23229857819905497"> 0.232 </td>
<td class="xl28" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.6645023696682379">
(1.665)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">13</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">CONNOR.MCDAVID</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">EDM</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.3172037914691828">
(1.317)</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.32729857819905384"> 0.327 </td>
<td class="xl28" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.6445023696682366">
(1.645)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">14</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">PIERRE-E.BELLEMARE</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">PHI</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-2.1622037914691798">
(2.162)</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-0.52270142180094581"> (0.523)</td>
<td class="xl28" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.639502369668234">
(1.640)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">15</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">JESPER.FAST</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">NYR</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.8172037914691828">
(1.817)</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-0.18770142180094851"> (0.188)</td>
<td class="xl28" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.6295023696682343">
(1.630)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">16</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">MARK.LETESTU</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">EDM</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-2.3122037914691838">
(2.312)</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-0.69770142180094652"> (0.698)</td>
<td class="xl28" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.6145023696682372">
(1.615)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">17</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">HENRIK.ZETTERBERG</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">DET</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.3222037914691818">
(1.322)</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.28729857819905469"> 0.287 </td>
<td class="xl28" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.6095023696682365">
(1.610)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">18</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">JORDAN.STAAL</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">CAR</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.2722037914691811">
(1.272)</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.32229857819905483"> 0.322 </td>
<td class="xl28" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.5945023696682359">
(1.595)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">19</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">FRANS.NIELSEN</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">NYI/DET</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.5272037914691836">
(1.527)</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="5.7298578199054262E-2"> 0.057 </td>
<td class="xl28" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.5845023696682379">
(1.585)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">20</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">ALEX.CHIASSON</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">OTT/CGY</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.8672037914691817">
(1.867)</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-0.2877014218009446">
(0.288)</td>
<td class="xl28" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.5795023696682371">
(1.580)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">21</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">SEAN.MONAHAN</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">CGY</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.3872037914691813">
(1.387)</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.19229857819905405"> 0.192 </td>
<td class="xl28" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.5795023696682353">
(1.580)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">22</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">MATT.MOULSON</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">BUF</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.932203791469183">
(1.932)</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-0.36270142180094567"> (0.363)</td>
<td class="xl28" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.5695023696682373">
(1.570)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">23</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">ANDERS.LEE</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">NYI</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.5222037914691828">
(1.522)</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="3.7298578199054688E-2"> 0.037 </td>
<td class="xl28" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.5595023696682375">
(1.560)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">24</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">VINCENT.TROCHECK</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">FLA</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.3622037914691827">
(1.362)</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.19729857819905483"> 0.197 </td>
<td class="xl28" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.5595023696682375">
(1.560)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">25</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">RYAN.O'REILLY</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">BUF</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.1422037914691821">
(1.142)</td>
<td class="xl27" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.39729857819905234"> 0.397 </td>
<td class="xl28" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.5395023696682344">
(1.540)</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
<div>
These are the guys that you want on your team. Please ignore the inclusion of Vandevelde and Bellemare, as that's just a product of Dave Hakstol being a fucking goddamn idiot. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
(deep breath)</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
They are getting stuck with competition that is better than their teammates, which is a tough position to be put in considering they often play on the same team as guys in the previous category that are sheltered so much that their coaches basically feed them grapes on the bench. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
These are the workhorses, the grinders, the guys who make life easier for the Brayden Schenns and Alex Ovechkins and Jack Eichels of the world. (The Flames, Islanders, and Sabres are also all kind of bad.)</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><u>Players With jQOC > jQOT Who Produce The Most</u></b></div>
<div>
<b><u><br /></u></b></div>
<div>
Here's your money shot for the day. Of the 233 forwards that qualify (with 1500+ minutes at 5v5 in the past two seasons), 106 players face competition who are stronger via TOI and xG than their teammates. I'll include Brad Marchand to make 107 because his difference is just 0.004 on the positive side and I want to see where he stacks up. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Of those 107 players, here are the top of the list in Expected Goals For Percentage:</div>
<div>
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; text-align: center; width: 659px;" x:str="">
<colgroup><col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 7716; mso-width-source: userset; width: 158pt;" width="211"></col>
<col span="3" style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col>
<col span="2" style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col>
<col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: center; width: 48pt;" width="64"></td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 158pt;" width="211">Player</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 48pt;" width="64">Team</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 48pt;" width="64">xGF%</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 48pt;" width="64">GF%</td>
<td class="xl22" style="text-align: center; width: 48pt;" width="64" x:str="jQOT"> jQOT </td>
<td class="xl22" style="text-align: center; width: 48pt;" width="64" x:str="jQOC"> jQOC </td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 48pt;" width="64">/\Qual</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">PATRICE.BERGERON</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">BOS</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" x:num="">58.77</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" x:num="">55.15</td>
<td class="xl22" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.31148068669528151"> 0.311 </td>
<td class="xl22" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.43796137339056784"> 0.438 </td>
<td class="xl25" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-0.12648068669528634"> (0.126)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">2</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">BRAD.MARCHAND</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">BOS</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" x:num="">57.76</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" x:num="">57.59</td>
<td class="xl22" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.40648068669528215"> 0.406 </td>
<td class="xl22" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.40296137339056592"> 0.403 </td>
<td class="xl25" style="text-align: center;" x:num="3.5193133047162206E-3"> 0.004 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">3</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">CONNOR.MCDAVID</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">EDM</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" x:num="">56.39</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" x:num="">57.58</td>
<td class="xl22" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.0485193133047179">
(1.049)</td>
<td class="xl22" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.32296137339056763"> 0.323 </td>
<td class="xl25" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.3714806866952856">
(1.371)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">4</td>
<td class="xl23" style="text-align: center;"><span style="background-color: #f6b26b;">SEAN.COUTURIER</span></td>
<td class="xl23" style="text-align: center;">PHI</td>
<td class="xl23" style="text-align: right;" x:num="">56.14</td>
<td class="xl23" style="text-align: right;" x:num="">55.78</td>
<td class="xl24" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.0785193133047173">
(1.079)</td>
<td class="xl24" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.36796137339056578"> 0.368 </td>
<td class="xl26" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.4464806866952831">
(1.446)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">5</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">NIKITA.KUCHEROV</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">T.B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" x:num="">55.56</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" x:num="">59.88</td>
<td class="xl22" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-0.56351931330471672"> (0.564)</td>
<td class="xl22" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.10796137339056777"> 0.108 </td>
<td class="xl25" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-0.67148068669528449"> (0.671)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">6</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">JORDAN.STAAL</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">CAR</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" x:num="">55.5</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" x:num="">51.92</td>
<td class="xl22" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.0035193133047162">
(1.004)</td>
<td class="xl22" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.31796137339056862"> 0.318 </td>
<td class="xl25" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-1.3214806866952848">
(1.321)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">7</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">BLAKE.WHEELER</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">WPG</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" x:num="">55.05</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" x:num="">53.69</td>
<td class="xl22" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-0.22351931330471686"> (0.224)</td>
<td class="xl22" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.41296137339056571"> 0.413 </td>
<td class="xl25" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-0.63648068669528257"> (0.636)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">8</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">TAYLOR.HALL</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">EDM/N.J</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" x:num="">54.78</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" x:num="">52.49</td>
<td class="xl22" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-2.138519313304716">
(2.139)</td>
<td class="xl22" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.26796137339056791"> 0.268 </td>
<td class="xl25" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-2.4064806866952839">
(2.406)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">9</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">BRANDON.SAAD</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">CBJ</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" x:num="">54.53</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" x:num="">59.43</td>
<td class="xl22" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-0.14851931330471757"> (0.149)</td>
<td class="xl22" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-2.0386266094316596E-3"> (0.002)</td>
<td class="xl25" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-0.14648068669528591"> (0.146)</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; text-align: right;" x:num="">10</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">RYAN.KESLER</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">ANA</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" x:num="">54.08</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" x:num="">51.92</td>
<td class="xl22" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.39148068669528513"> 0.391 </td>
<td class="xl22" style="text-align: center;" x:num="0.43296137339056706"> 0.433 </td>
<td class="xl25" style="text-align: center;" x:num="-4.1480686695281932E-2"> (0.041)</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div>
Especially impressive are McDavid, Couturier, Staal, and Hall - they're all buried in a really significant way, and they STILL manage to come out with a positive Expected Goals differential. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><u>In Conclusion</u></b></div>
<div>
<b><u><br /></u></b></div>
<div>
Sean Couturier is very good. Thank you for your time. </div>
Jayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13632002302783356696noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8869544188552161021.post-61086850097874148752017-04-20T12:42:00.001-04:002017-04-20T12:42:09.776-04:00The Sabres Fired Tim Murray (Part 2)Part 1 primarily focused on drafting (and, obviously, how poorly the Sabres did with little to no improvement) under Murray's tenure at GM. Now I want to look at the trades that he made over his three years and change.<br />
<br />
<b><u>Ryan Miller Trades</u></b><br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>Sabes --> Blues: Ryan Miller, Steve Ott</li>
<li>Blues --> Sabres: Jaro Halak, Chris Stewart, William Carrier, 1st round pick, 3rd round pick</li>
</ul>
<div>
And then, a week later:</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>Sabres --> Capitals: Jaro Halak, 3rd round pick</li>
<li>Capitals --> Sabres: Michal Neuvirth, Rostislav Klesla</li>
</ul>
<div>
Essentially, Murray turned a franchise goalie (who happens to be one of the best American goalies ever) into a shittier goalie who was gone after 29 games, a pair of forwards who will never contribute to anything meaningful in Buffalo, Carrier (who scored 8 points in 41 games this season), and draft picks that were flipped in other trades. </div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Grade: Not Great!</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
And then we have two distinct types of trades that seem to be the product of a confused front office. The Murray-era Sabres participated in 20 trades after the Miller trade. Here's how I'd split them up:</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>Dumping players for picks/pros (6 trades)</li>
<li>Spending picks/prospects to acquire players (8 trades)</li>
<li>My Trash For Your Trash (5 trades)</li>
</ul>
<div>
The Trash trades are largely irrelevant, of course, but why is a franchise dumping players for picks while also, at the same time, using picks and prospects to add players to their current team? Tanking, at least when maximized, is stockpiling picks and young prospects and then being as bad as possibly to maximize the value of those picks. If you can keep guys in juniors or the minors - and maybe even let them serve in leadership roles and make deep playoff runs in those leagues - then everything should come together and you win a bunch of championships like the Blackhawks and Penguins. </div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
But adding guys like Ryan O'Reilly and Evander Kane seems to run counter to everything that the Tim Murray "Tanking" Sabres seemed to be doing. That's why they ended up with Alex Nylander last summer instead of Auston Matthews or Patrik Laine. It's why they're going to end up with Urho Vaakanainen or Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen or Miro Heiskanen instead of Nolan Patrick or Nico Hischier this summer. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
The Sabres, effectively, wasted three years while Tim Murray was in charge. They don't have any good defensemen, they might be able to roll three decent lines next season, and they have not even sniffed the playoffs since 2011. </div>
Jayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13632002302783356696noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8869544188552161021.post-37416319822487406212017-04-20T11:12:00.001-04:002017-04-20T11:12:43.190-04:00The Sabres Fired Tim MurrayTim Murray had been relieved from his position of General Manager by the Buffalo Sabres. In the coming months, we will likely learn how much of that decision was made with Jack Eichel's thoughts in mind - but that is not our concern right now.<br />
<br />
This morning, I want to take a look back at Murray's three years in charge of the Sabres to see how fucking awful he was. Let's start in the middle of the 2013-14 season, when he got hired:<br />
<br />
<b><u>2013-14 Season</u></b><br />
<b><u><br /></u></b>
We should begin on January 9th, 2014. The Sabres fired Darcy Regier, the longest-serving and winningest GM in franchise history, and turned the reigns over to Murray. They really bottomed out over the final months of the season, finishing in last place in the Northeast Division (RIP).<br />
<br />
But, when you're a new GM, you almost would rather start with a last-place finish so you can take advantage of the better draft position. So Murray also traded franchise cornerstone goalie Ryan Miller to St. Louis for Jaro Halak, some shitty players, and some draft picks.<br />
<br />
<b><u>2014-15 Season</u></b><br />
<b><u><br /></u></b>
We'll kick off Murray's first full season with his offseason moves. The Sabres picked second in the 2014 Draft, missing out on Aaron Ekblad (he went first to the Panthers). Buffalo selected Sam Reinhart with the number two pick.<br />
<br />
I think, in hindsight, Sabres fans would rather have taken Leon Draisaitl (who went 3rd), William Nylander (8th), Dylan Larkin (15th), or David Pastrnak (25th). But it's early in Reinhart's career and he'll probably turn out to be perfectly a decent player. I do not recognize the names of any of Buffalo's later-round picks, but, again, it's early.<br />
<br />
The 14-15 season was a drag, and the Sabres finished with just two more points than they had in 13-14. They were in last place in the division again, and this time they were last place in the whole league. Draft picks!<br />
<br />
Perhaps the most important piece of the 14-15 Sabres' season was the acquisition of Evander Kane. Kane is now just 25 years old, and he figures to be a key piece of the Sabres rebuild that may or may not be happening.<br />
<br />
<b><u>2015-16 Season</u></b><br />
<b><u><br /></u></b>
The Edmonton Oilers won the draft lottery and were gifted Connor McDavid. The Sabres ended up with Jack Eichel. Eichel is great (certainly a better 2nd overall pick than Reinhart), but McDavid was the best first overall pick in a decade. Here's how Murray handled the lottery results:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgepTuWVqL8N9yyFR5ckP7xHtom7Ahf8T0TOiAlE9TzpNIVgSL1dwFbMu0lBK5L3gQfNbobwf1rjG-1XmxIp-ZBeJNcxeIcqqV2vNQDCAkc1zk3xXAwm97eY8uDH3lj8uKHn6xWOSZ4fpI/s1600/1.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="182" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgepTuWVqL8N9yyFR5ckP7xHtom7Ahf8T0TOiAlE9TzpNIVgSL1dwFbMu0lBK5L3gQfNbobwf1rjG-1XmxIp-ZBeJNcxeIcqqV2vNQDCAkc1zk3xXAwm97eY8uDH3lj8uKHn6xWOSZ4fpI/s640/1.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
Not great. I can't imagine that Eichel was excited to get the prom invitation only after the cheerleader with the cute dimples rejected our boy Timmy.<br />
<br />
Buffalo traded the 21st pick in the draft for goalie Robin Lehner. Colin White, who was selected with that pick, may or may not haunt the Sabres - but Lehner appears to be their goalie of the future.<br />
<br />
That summer, Murray also hired head coach Dan Bylsma, who had won a Stanley Cup with the Pittsburgh Penguinis after they successfully rebuilt after a tank. The team brought in Ryan O'Reilly (who eventually would drunk-drive his car into a Tim Horton's) and made a huge leap from the previous season.<br />
<br />
Well, a huge leap in terms of points - from 54 to 81. However, that "huge" jump turned out to be just enough to push them from 8th place in the division to 7th.<br />
<br />
<b><u>2016-17 Season</u></b><br />
<b><u><br /></u></b>
Boy, this story of Murray's tenure is wrapping up quickly. The Sabres, obviously regretting their 2014 selection of Reinhart and wishing they'd have taken William Nylander, drafted the younger Nylander brother (Alex) seventh overall.<br />
<br />
Murray also gave an enormous contract (seven years, $42 million) to Kyle Okposo in the summer. Okposo scored 19 goals and 45 points, which is suboptimal for a guy making $6 million per year.<br />
<br />
The Sabres finished with fewer points than the previous season, and didn't have a single player break the 30-goal or 60-point marks. Again, they finished in last in the division.<br />
<br />
<b><u>RIP In Peace</u></b><br />
<br />
Murray was at the helm for three and a half seasons. In their best season, Buffalo finished second-to-last in their division. In all the rest, they finished last. They used their three top-ten picks under Murray to draft the wrong guy by choice, the wrong guy because of the lottery, and a middle-of-the-road prospect because they overachieved despite not competing. That's why Tim Murray got canned, RIP.<br />
<br />
<b><u>Looking Forward</u></b><br />
<b><u><br /></u></b>
Here's who Buffalo has under contract moving into next season:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglLldLHEiM7mTdQenllGFlUQuZQysnLttFIcrmBPSjCJ4-d73pkdobP0dPHxGm26zEvKReKlJ83G9UNy7pLa1yaGD4XfssCZfzWMhrprzAhJo6HRq5uiUApVXvjitUYQjWo8SjfU-s_lg/s1600/1.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="564" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglLldLHEiM7mTdQenllGFlUQuZQysnLttFIcrmBPSjCJ4-d73pkdobP0dPHxGm26zEvKReKlJ83G9UNy7pLa1yaGD4XfssCZfzWMhrprzAhJo6HRq5uiUApVXvjitUYQjWo8SjfU-s_lg/s640/1.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
O'Reilly, Okposo, Kane, Moulson, Eichel, and Reinhart are six solid forwards. Zemgus Girgenssons was an All Star. There is a lot of youth in the pipeline, especially Nylander. The defense kind of loses it a bit, but the Sabres should be able to piece together a decent team.<br />
<br />
We'll see who Terry Pegula hires to fill the shoes of Murray and Bylsma, but the right GM and coach could push the Sabres into the playoff picture in the weirdly-not-that-good Atlantic Division next year.Jayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13632002302783356696noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8869544188552161021.post-83558128897322912252017-04-14T10:52:00.000-04:002017-04-14T10:52:12.219-04:00Where Should Steve Mason Look To Play Next Season?Usually, I get inspired to write my blogs by a random tweet on Twitter. Today, that tweet happens to be (sort of) my own.<br />
<br />
Well, it starts with this conversation between O&BP's Mikey D and the only Scottish hockey fan in the world, Berke. They were looking forward to next season's Flyers goaltending situation. It's admittedly pretty murky, and there are a ton of options on the table:<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en">
<div dir="ltr" lang="en">
<a href="https://twitter.com/MikeyD_OandBP">@MikeyD_OandBP</a> Or Budaj. Here’s the top (# GP this season) UFAs. <a href="https://t.co/Qycdkjkonx">pic.twitter.com/Qycdkjkonx</a></div>
— Berke Ricketti (@berkekibris) <a href="https://twitter.com/berkekibris/status/852547508597338113">April 13, 2017</a></blockquote>
And then I jumped into the Corsica machine:<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en">
<div dir="ltr" lang="en">
<a href="https://twitter.com/berkekibris">@berkekibris</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/MikeyD_OandBP">@MikeyD_OandBP</a> of those 15, since '14-15, Mason ranks:<br />1st in gms<br />2nd in TOI<br />4th in Sv%<br />2nd in low-danger Sv%<br />3rd in mid-Sv%<br />12th in hi-Sv%<br />4th in GSAA/60</div>
— Jay (@jaylike) <a href="https://twitter.com/jaylike/status/852564659207012352">April 13, 2017</a></blockquote>
But now I want to jump in even further, because those rankings for Mason are quite telling. He's quite solid against low- and mid-danger scoring chances. Among goalies who have played at least 4,000 minutes in the past four years (that's about two dozen games per year, at a minimum), here's where Mason ranks:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>Low-danger save percentage: 0.9845% (3rd behind Lundqvist and John Gibson)</li>
<li>Mid-danger save percentage: 0.9342% (5th behind Talbot, Khudobin, Gibson, and Frederik Andersen)</li>
<li>High-danger save percentage: 0.7972% (37th out of 47 eligible goalies)</li>
</ul>
<div>
You expect save percentage to decline as shot quality improves, but Mason's curve is harsher than most goalies. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGEm2F1L1gmJLNZsndO78OYoMnaonv1yOZK3L2xux-Ahlt06uXpZMeweZVtiHDh3e8p4lrARUa1Tksc4qbgQaxcwNcmy0FxK5dziCXjaXdnpn-3dIqmbQ0wihbkBM15XywclYviWfXmZc/s1600/1.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGEm2F1L1gmJLNZsndO78OYoMnaonv1yOZK3L2xux-Ahlt06uXpZMeweZVtiHDh3e8p4lrARUa1Tksc4qbgQaxcwNcmy0FxK5dziCXjaXdnpn-3dIqmbQ0wihbkBM15XywclYviWfXmZc/s1600/1.PNG" /></a></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
It's a very minor difference, but over the 996 high-danger chances Mason has faced in these four seasons, his 79.72% against Price's 85.49% amounts to a difference of 57.5 goals. The Flyers' goal differentials the last four years (though Mason only played 61, 51, 54, and 58 games) were +1, -19, -4, and -17. You always hate to compare your guy to the best in the world, but Carey Price would have singlehandedly erased the Flyers net goal differential over those four years. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
We've always known that Mason is in a tier below the elite level of NHL goalies, and it's almost all because he struggles against high-danger chances. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
So, looking forward, from Mason's point of view and not a Flyers point of view, which destinations make sense? Here's our checklist, based on what Mason has said and what we can infer about his statistical history:</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>Team without a number one goalie</li>
<li>Defense that doesn't allow a lot of high-danger chances</li>
</ul>
<div>
That's it! That's the whole list. First, let's narrow our list down from 30 teams by eliminating the franchises who have cornerstones already. That knocks out:</div>
</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>Metro: WSH, PIT, CBJ. NYR, NJD</li>
<li>Atlantic: MTL, OTT, BOS, TOR, TBL, </li>
<li>Central: CHI, MIN, NSH</li>
<li>Pacific: ANA, SJ, LA, ARI</li>
</ul>
<div>
We also have a bunch of Maybe guys. Is Jake Allen that guy for St. Louis? Is Brian Elliott that guy for Calgary? Is Cam Talbot that guy for Edmonton? Is Winnipeg going to pay Connor Hellebuyck this summer and make him the number one guy? Is Semyon Varlamov the guy in Colorado? Is Jimmy Howard that guy for Detroit? Is the Greiss/Halak tandem going to work in New York? I mean... maybe. </div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
But that list removed 17 teams from the list (and maybe 25, we'll see), leaving us with seven contenders for Mason: </div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>Hurricanes: have $6 million committed to two goalies next season</li>
<li>Panthers: have $5.3 million committed to Roberto Luongo until 2022</li>
<li>Sabres: will likely re-sign RFA Robin Lehner this summer</li>
<li>Stars: probably not going to commit more money to goalies because they're paying $10.4 million already</li>
<li>Canucks: Jacob Markstrom is signed at $3.6 million for three more years</li>
</ul>
<div>
Barring something wonky, I would expect the 'Canes, Panthers, and Stars to duck out of this race. So, between Buffalo and Vancouver, who would Mason prefer to play in front of? Let's compare the biggest thing that matters for Mase - high-danger chances against. </div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Now, considering the Sabres, and Canucks finished 17 and 25 points out of the playoffs respectively, we shouldn't get our hopes up too high that any of them do anything good on ice. But we might surprise ourselves. For reference, league-average High Danger Chances Against Per Sixty was 6.41 last season, and that made up an average of 21.5% of total scoring chances.<br /></div>
<div>
Let's start with the three goalies that Buffalo used this year:</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>Robin Lehner (59 games played): 5.85 HDSA/60, 17.6%</li>
<li>Anders Nilsson (26 games): 7.13 HDSA/60, 21.6%</li>
<li>Linus Ullmark (1 game): 5.98 HDSA/60, 17.9%</li>
</ul>
<div>
Wait, Buffalo is a better-than-average team in terms of denying high-danger chances?</div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Now for Vancouver's carousel:</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>Ryan Miller (54 games played): 7.00 HDSA/60, 21.8%</li>
<li>Jacob Markstrom (25 games): 6.45 HDSA/60, 22.2%</li>
<li>Richard Bachman (5 games): 9.31 HDSA/60, 27.3%</li>
</ul>
<div>
That would make an easy decision for Future Sabre Steve Mason. </div>
</div>
<br />
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>Jayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13632002302783356696noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8869544188552161021.post-14526229878925738782017-04-04T16:08:00.002-04:002017-04-04T16:08:20.386-04:00 Applying Playing Styles/Clustering To The Flyers<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en">
<div dir="ltr" lang="en">
Identifying Playing Styles with Clustering <a href="https://t.co/JWaQvThcmG">https://t.co/JWaQvThcmG</a> <a href="https://t.co/0tROHpmDaY">pic.twitter.com/0tROHpmDaY</a></div>
— Ryan Stimson (@RK_Stimp) <a href="https://twitter.com/RK_Stimp/status/849230275280326657">April 4, 2017</a></blockquote>
If you are a hockey fan, you should read Ryan's post from today. Stop reading this, open that link in a new window, and read it from start to finish. It's probably going to end up being a huge piece for hockey's internet community, if for no other reason than it creates a SHIT TON of possibilities for expansion.<br />
<br />
The nuts and bolts is simple: like EA Sports NHL, most players fall into four major categories:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>Forwards: Playmaker, Shooter, Balanced, and Dependent</li>
<li>Defensemen: All-Around, Volume Shooter, Puck-Mover, Defensive</li>
</ul>
<div>
There are obviously some ways to nit-pick those groups (and perhaps dividing them even further is next up on Ryan's to-do list), but according to his notes there are pretty even cuts for those eight groups. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Before we jump into applying this to a Flyers context, I want to note that there are only 54 Playmakers, 69 Shooters, 41 Volume Shooters, and 11 All-Arounds. I was curious who those All-Around guys were, so here's the list:</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>Obviously: Doughty, Karlsson, Keith, Pietrangelo, Letang, Hedman</li>
<li>Okay That Makes Sense: Tyson Barrie, TJ Brodie, Hampus Lindholm,Keith Yandle</li>
<li>Wait What: Derrick Pouliot, Jakub Nakladal, Jamie McBain, Shea Theodore, Tyler Wotherspoon</li>
</ul>
<div>
We're going to let ourselves get sidetracked really early on in this piece because how the fuck are those five guys among the best statistical defensemen in the league?</div>
</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>Pouliot: Played 34, 22, and 10 games the last three years with Pittsburgh. Used very sparingly and sheltered heavily. </li>
<li>Nakladal: Played 27 games with Calgary last year and 3 games with Carolina this year. He kind of stinks, I think. </li>
<li>McBain: Played 348 games in 8 seasons. Scored 92 points in his first five seasons but just 18 since (including 0 in just 3 games this year). </li>
<li>Theodore: Played 50 games for Anaheim between last year and this year, scored 8 points each season. He should almost certainly have more this year, though, because he's shooting just 1.9%. He's probably the best of this bunch.</li>
<li>Wotherspoon: This was just a fake name that I made up. </li>
</ul>
<div>
That little subquest means we're going to allow ourselves the ability to tweak who the model says qualifies for each category. The most obvious, from the Flyers fan's perspective, is Ivan Provorov. He's technically a Defensive Defenseman (the worst of the four categories), but we're going to move him to Puck Mover because he's been (1) stapled to Andrew MacDonald and (2) faced with the toughest competition of the team's blueline. Fair? Good. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Here's who the Flyers will be icing next season:</div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: lime;">Playmaker: Giroux</span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: yellow;">Shooter: Voracek, Simmonds, Konecny</span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: cyan;">Balanced: Filppula, Couturier, Schenn, Raffl, Weise, Bellemare, Lindblom</span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #ea9999;">Dependent: Read, Cousins, Laughton, Leier, Vecchione</span></div>
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 593px;" x:str=""><colgroup><col style="mso-width-alt: 2962; mso-width-source: userset; width: 61pt;" width="81"></col><col span="8" style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col></colgroup><tbody></tbody></table>
<div>
</div>
<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: lime;">All-Around: Nobody</span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: yellow;">Volume Shooter: Gudas, Gostisbehere, Del Zotto</span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: cyan;">Puck-Mover: Provorov, Sanheim, Myers</span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #ea9999;">Defensive: Manning, MacDonald, Morin</span></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
A few notes:</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>Considering Schenn is near the top of the league leaderboard for power play goals and Lindblom is near the top of the league in Sweden, I wouldn't be surprised them to classify themselves more as Shooters than Balanced next season</li>
<li>I was tempted to move Provorov straight into the All-Around (read: Elite) category, but keeping him as a Puck Mover seems like the safe move</li>
<li>Sanheim and Myers, if they develop into anything like what they should be as professionals, should both fall in the Shooter or Puck Mover category. Based on the qualifications listed in Ryan's post, I think Puck Mover might make more sense for both of them. </li>
<li>Morin could be a Gudas-type Shooter, but given that he's only just making his NHL debut tonight, it's tough to say for certain. We'll take the safe route there too. </li>
</ul>
<div>
Really, the most valuable piece of Ryan's work published today is the way the different player archetypes interact when paired together: </div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<img alt="Fwd_Lines" src="https://hockeygraphsdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2017/04/fwd_lines.png?w=615" /><img alt="Def_Pairs" src="https://hockeygraphsdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2017/04/def_pairs.png?w=615" /></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Playmakers are the most valuable thing you can have when constructing an NHL roster. All-Around defensemen are best when paired with Shooters - not when paired with other All-Around defensemen. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
The best the Flyers can do with their lineup is something like this on offense:</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="background-color: lime;">Playmaker </span>- <span style="background-color: yellow;">Shooter </span>- <span style="background-color: yellow;">Shooter </span>(55.1% xG)</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="background-color: cyan;">Balanced </span>- <span style="background-color: cyan;">Balanced </span>- <span style="background-color: cyan;">Balanced </span>(51.5% xG)</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="background-color: cyan;">Balanced </span>- <span style="background-color: cyan;">Balanced </span>- <span style="background-color: yellow;">Shooter </span>(50.9% xG)</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="background-color: cyan;">Balanced </span>- <span style="background-color: cyan;">Balanced </span>- <span style="background-color: #ea9999;">Dependent </span>(45.4% xG)</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
I'm going to say something really crazy here. This is a point to Dave Hakstol for pairing Jake Voracek and Travis Konecny, at different times, with Pierre-Edouard Bellemare and Chris Vandevelde. If he believed that PEB and CVV were Balanced and not Dependent (which would be stupid, but stay with me), then it's better to put them with a shooter than it is to put them with a Dependent (read, in this context, as "someone even worse than they are"). </div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
If and/or when Jake Voracek earns his contract and crosses the threshold from Shooter to Playmaker (less shots, more shot assists, more overall expected goals), then you can change the second player on the first line to green and change that line's xG to 55.4%. It's not a huge difference. What would be a huge difference would be replacing that Dependent on the fourth line with a Balanced player or a Shooter. That could be Cousins/Laughton/Leier making a leap, or it could be a rookie developing quicker than expected, or it could be another Dale Weise-type free agent signing. </div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
And on defense:</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="background-color: yellow;">Volume Shooter </span>- <span style="background-color: yellow;">Volume Shooter</span> (54.5% xG)</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="background-color: cyan;">Puck Mover</span> - <span style="background-color: yellow;">Volume Shooter</span><span style="background-color: white;"> </span>(51.1% xG)</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="background-color: cyan;">Puck Mover</span> - <span style="background-color: yellow;">Volume Shooter</span> (51.5% xG)</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
If and/or when Ivan Provorov establishes himself in the All-Around category, then change that first D-slot to green and change the first pair's xG to 56.5%. </div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Here's my best case scenario Flyers lineup for next season. If players develop like they should and Hextall keeps (what we expect to be) the same roster, this could be your opening night lineup:</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="background-color: yellow;">Konecny </span>- <span style="background-color: lime;">Giroux </span>- <span style="background-color: yellow;">Simmonds </span>(55.1% xG)</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="background-color: yellow;">Lindblom </span>- <span style="background-color: cyan;">Filppula </span>-<span style="background-color: lime;">Voracek </span>(55.0% xG)</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="background-color: cyan;">Raffl </span>- <span style="background-color: cyan;">Couturier </span>- <span style="background-color: cyan;">Schenn </span>(51.5% xG)</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="background-color: cyan;">Bellemare </span>- <span style="background-color: cyan;">Vecchione </span>- <span style="background-color: cyan;">Cousins </span>(51.5% xG)</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="background-color: lime;">Provorov </span>- <span style="background-color: yellow;">Gudas</span><span style="background-color: white;"> (56.5% xG)</span></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="background-color: cyan;">Sanheim </span>- <span style="background-color: yellow;">Morin</span><span style="background-color: white;"> (51.1% xG)</span></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="background-color: yellow;">Gostisbehere </span>- <span style="background-color: cyan;">Myers</span><span style="background-color: white;"> (51.1% xG)</span></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="background-color: white;">That's four lines and three pairs that can hold their own at even strength, plus the following buckets of special teams players:</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<ul>
<li>PP forwards: Giroux, Voracek, Simmonds, Schenn, Filppula, Konecny, Raffl, Couturier, Lindblom</li>
<li>PP defensemen: Gostisbehere, Provorov, Sanheim, Myers, Gudas</li>
<li>PK fowards: Giroux, Simmonds, Couturier, Filppula, Raffl, Bellemare</li>
<li>PK defensemen: Gudas, Morin, Provorov, and then I guess throw one of the offensive guys to the wolves? Idk this isn't my job</li>
</ul>
<div>
Big night tonight - Sammy Morin making his NHL debut against those scumbag shits from New Jersey. I'll see you out there. </div>
</div>
<br />
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>Jayhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13632002302783356696noreply@blogger.com0