I Got A Little Mad About Sean Couturier Again

I have a confession - I got a little triggered this afternoon. It was this tweet from my boy Mikey (great follow for Flyers and non-Flyers content):

Dunno why it popped in my head but I remember reading sum1's tweet not so long ago that said theyd rather have Couturier over Mark Scheifele

— Mikey D, O&BP 🤙🏼 (@MikeyD_OandBP) September 25, 2017

I'm a Couturier guy. I feel like I go to bat for him all the time against people who think he stinks. I certainly don't think Mikey believes that Couturier is "bad", just that Scheifele is better than him.

And from a scoring standpoint, it's hard to argue. They were drafted back-to-back in 2011 (which is why this fucking comparison comes up so frequently). Couturier started in the NHL immediately, and his two-year headstart over Scheifele means he's totaled 110 more games played. But despite that difference, Scheifele has still outscored Couturier by 20 goals, 16 assists, and 36 points.

When you boil it down to raw scoring, yes, you would obviously rather have 0.96 goals per 60 minutes than 0.58. You don't need to be an Ivy League economics grad to grasp that general logic (shoutout Charlie O'Connor).

....Stephen A. Smith voice....

HOWEVER.

Couturier's value is always extremely underappreciated by raw scoring metrics for three reasons.

1. Teammates
2. Competition
3. Power play

I'm going to try to be brief and bang out summaries for all three. First, let's look at the guys with whom he shares the ice. I'll resort back to those raw scoring numbers so we can look at how much ice time Scheifele and Couturier get with their teams top ten scorers (please note that Scheifele led the Jets in scoring next year and Couturier was sixth on the Flyers):

(Please do not utilize the bit in parentheses there in an argument against me, thank you.)

Scheifele plays with Wheeler, Laine, Ehlers, and Byfuglien each about half the time he's on the ice. I'd have to get a more mathematically-talented person to tell me how much of his ice time is spent with one of those top-four guys.

What I can tell you with absolutely certainty is it's a shit-ton more time than Couturier plays with the Flyers' top four. I mean he didn't even play enough minutes with Claude Giroux and Wayne Simmonds last season to qualify for HockeyViz's WOWY chart.

I think perhaps the best illustration of the Teammate disparity is this stylish Excel 2003 plot:

Sure, Couturier spent quite a bit of time with Philly's number one scorer (Voracek) last year. But Scheifele spent even more than that amount of time with each of Winnipeg's four top scorers. I'm going to disappoint my high school calculus teacher and try to reference area under the curve here - Couturier's would be about half the size of Scheifele's.

As for competition, that has been well-documented on this website. Couturier consistently takes his band of whoever-the-fuck-his-coach-tells-him-to-play-with into battle against opposing teams' top lines, and he routinely shuts his opponents down completely.

And as for the power play, I would recommend Charlie's latest piece from Flyers training camp. He references the second power play unit with Couturier, Konecny, Provorov, Jordan Weal, and Nolan Patrick. I certainly think the additions of Weal and Patrick (with the new coach behind the scenes) should make this second unit more dangerous.

I also would like to state for the record that I think Couturier should be the net-front guy and Patrick should take the "Giroux" spot on the wall. That seems like a simple fix.

Flyers-Islanders Rookie Game Preview

Hockey is back! It's cold enough to wear pants, there is ice on the floor of the Wells Fargo Center, and players who make a shit-ton of money are practicing at the Skate Zone in Vorhees.

The rookie camp-training camp week feels like the real start of the season. Especially consider the Flyers' DEEP prospect pool, the fact that these games don't count doesn't matter in the slightest. We get to watch our boys (and some of them are actually boys) and that is a beautiful thing.

Tonight's Flyers-Islanders rookie game should be a good one, in that it features two teams whose fans believe they have among the best prospect pools in the league. For what it's worth, two of the top three comments on THIS random Reddit post mention the Flyers and Isles.

Of course, we know everyone who will be wearing orange tonight. We do not, however, know who is going to be playing with who(m) tonight. We'll reference some trios and pairs from rookie camp to try to project who might get matched up.

And then I don't know a goddamn thing about the Islanders prospect pipeline. So I wanted to do a bit of research as a primer for tonight.

Combinations Of Baby Flyers That Might Happen

Your Boy Dave Isaac tweeted out the lines from the first two days of rookie camp. Here's the forwards from day one:

• Bunnaman-Patrick-Salinitri
• Lindblom-Laberge-Rubtsov
• Twarynski-Vorobyev-Kosorenkov
• Ratcliffe-Frost-Strome/Sushko
• AubeKubel-Vecchione-Fazleev

And then day two:

• Kosorenkov-Vorobyev-Salinitri
• Lindblom-Laberge-Rubtsov
• Ratcliffe-Frost-Strome/Sushko
• Bunnaman-Patrick-AubeKubel
• Twarynski-Vecchione-Fazleev

And, hot off the press, day three:

• Lindblom-Laberge-Rubtsov
• Twarynski-Vorobyev-Kosorenkov
• Bunnaman-Patrick-Sushko
• Salinitri-Vecchione-Fazleev
• Ratcliffe-Frost-Strome

My thoughts:

• Lindblom-Laberge-Rubtsov OH MY GOD!! Over/under 9.5 points from that trio tonight?
• Patrick being stapled to Bunnaman is a good move in my mind. Patrick can be the playmaker and Bunnaman can be the scorer. If Sushko is indeed their third tonight, he'll be half-playmaker and half-shooter. I like it. 
• Aube-Kubel, Veccione, Fazleev is probably a Phantoms line next season.
• Props to Anthony Salinitri, who has been deemed good enough to play alongside Patrick and AHL-caliber players. Similar props to Carsen Twarynski. 
• I hope Ivan Kosorenkov kills it and signs an ELC next week. 
• Ratcliffe-Frost-Strome. Babies!

Islanders Prospects That Are Going To Be Good In The Future At Some Point

I'll try to pick some brief scouting reports from around the internet, and I'll aim especially for (1) buzzwords that don't really mean anything and (2) NHL player comparables.

Mathew Barzal, center, drafted 16th overall in 2015

(Dobber Prospects) "one of the purest puck handlers and passers of anyone in his age group...has the skills and the vision to be a deadly weapon on the powerplay, but he showed his range and creativity 5 on 5 as well...he will continue to round out his defensive game"

Kieffer Bellows, winger, drafted 19th overall in 2016

(Eyes On Isles) "Bellows said his plan is to play one season for Portland before joining the Islanders for the 2018-19 season. He’ll try to improve all areas of his game, with a focus on his skating."
(The Draft Analyst) "a well-built goal scorer with a low center of gravity who can play a punishing, heavy yet cerebral game...is most certainly better suited as a shooter from the flank...He plays an aggressive, sometimes stubborn game, often too much for his own good. Getting whistled for bad penalties is a habit he’s had since high school"

Michael Dal Colle, winger drafted 5th overall in 2014

(Eyes On The Isles) "scouting report heading into the 2014 Draft was full of superlatives. It included skill, size, creativity, puck protection, battler, as well as hard working and intangibles...Islander fans shouldn’t give up on Dal Colle"

Joshua Ho-Sang, winger, drafted 28th overall in 2014

(Eliteprospects) "Ho-Sang often turns heads with his ability to handle the puck with ease in the offensive zone. He has speed and great offensive instincts but needs to work on his game outside of the offensive zone."

(Sportsnet) "Josh Ho-Sang forgot to set an alarm. That is why he was late for Day 1 of New York Islanders training camp"

Mitchell Vande Sompel, defenseman, drafted in the 3rd round in 2015
(Lighthouse Hockey) "What Mitchell Vande Sompel lacks in size he boasts in all-zone hockey intelligence. He has to. He's been used as both a forward and a defenseman...the allure here is how he can distribute the puck and join the rush from the blueline as an outstanding, agile skater."

Parker Wotherspoon, defenseman, drafted in the 4th round in 2015

(Lighthouse Hockey) "he became the youngest Sound Tiger ever at age 18 - his coach said "I thought he was confident. He was poised with the puck. He made really good puck decisions. He had really good battle. His hockey IQ: He was ready to play. He understood where to be on the ice."

Here are some more great Hockey Quotes from that article:

• When you watch Parker Wotherspoon, you notice him.
• He skates well. He jumps in the play well. Oh, and he defends well. We're excited about him.
• Wotherspoon has the potential to be a top 4, offensive LD who is sound defensively. 
• The kid can skate.
• Parker Wotherspoon improved greatly this past year on a Tri-City team that wasn't very good.

And now for some players that aren't really of the caliber of the guys above, but are worth noting anyway. I'll call them honorable mentions (possibly not honorable):

Sebastian Aho - This is not the actual Sebastian Aho (the good one plays for Carolina).

Devon Toews - He is not related to Top 100 All-Time NHL Player Jonathan Toews.

Matthew Gaudreau - Johnny's younger brother. He is also from New Jersey just like his older brother; did people know that Johnny Gaudreau is from New Jersey?

John Stevens - Son of coach John Stevens, who played for (and coached) the Flyers.

David Quenneville - His brother John (Devils) is the good one. His cousin Joel (Maple Leafs) is also good. David (Islanders) and Peter (Blue Jackets) are the "shitty" ones, but in this family that means they were only seventh-round picks.

And then this guy: Mitch Gillam - He played at Cornell (it's an Ivy League school in case you were not aware), and he posted save percentages between .914 and .927 (and goals against averages of 1.99 to 2.49) over his four years. Then he made the jump to the ECHL Solar Bears for a cup of coffee last year and immediately posted a .833 save percentage and a 6.34 goals against average.

(Eamon McAdam - the other goalie for the Isles in this game - seems actually good though, so it's not going to be all fun and games and offense)

You Need Five Top-Six-Caliber Wingers In Today's NHL

It's almost hockey season, which means it's almost the time of year where I see a random tweet and spiral downward into a place where I try to convince myself that the Flyers are actually good.

Today's entry comes from the newest member of The Athletic Philly (I think), Englishman (I think) Alexander Appleyard:

Fun stat of day, here are cup winners since '10's median P/82+sv%:

64-76-57
52-49-44
40-28-29
22-23-17

47-34
28-23
17-14

.924
.922#NHL

— Alexander Appleyard (@avappleyard) September 7, 2017

Yep. And cup finalist losers have a #5 winger who averages 38pts/82.

Having 5x top 6 level wingers is pretty key.

— Alexander Appleyard (@avappleyard) September 7, 2017

So, let's jump right the fuck in and see how close the Flyers are to this level.

Top Six Centers

I think the majority of Flyers Twitter is in agreement about the guys who are going to be anchoring our lines for the next few years. In order from oldest to youngest, it's Claude Giroux, Sean Couturier, Scott Laughton, and Nolan Patrick.

Perhaps someone might make a case for German Rubtsov, Morgan Frost, or Pascal Laberge stealing one of those spots in 2-3 years, but for now I think we should just focus on Giroux, Couturier, Laughton, and Patrick.

We need one center to score 70+ points and another to score around 50. Giroux hasn't scored more than 70 since 2014-15, and he finished last season with just 58 points in a full 82-game season. In Giroux's defense (I'll keep it short, there are plenty of deep dives elsewhere), his career-low shooting percentage last season cost him about 7 goals and the team's poor shooting percentage probably cost him at least that many points.

Hot take: Claude Giroux is our best bet to score 76 points next season.

Here's another take, in case you're really looking to get hot: Sean Couturier is the guy who's going to score 49 points next year. He scored 34 in 66 games last season (a pace of 42-ish over a full season), and he's going to almost certainly get an upgrade in wingers and defensemen this season. Yes, Couturier spent quite a bit of time between Travis Konecny and Jake Voracek last year, but he also spent quite a bit with Matt Read, Nick Cousins, and Dale Weise on his flanks.

Bottom Six Centers

With decent (or even just better-than-replacement-level) wingers, I have no doubt that Patrick and Laughton can get us to the 28- and 23-point thresholds in Alexander's tweet. Moving on!

Wingers

We know the names here - Voracek, Wayne Simmonds, Konecny, Oskar Lindblom, Valtteri Filppula, Jordan Weal, Jori Lehtera, Michael Raffl, Matt Read, Dale Weise.

I think it's easiest to start by trying to box some guys in as fourth-liners in the 17-23 point range. That would include two of these:

• Weise (topped out at 29 and 27 points two and three seasons ago)
• Read (steadily declining with 40-30-26-19 points over the last four years)
• Lehtera (44-34-22 over the past three years despite his being stapled to Vladimir Tarasenko's hip)
• Raffl (great complimentary piece but probably maxed out at 31 points in 2015-16)

Let's just move our way up the lineup card to the third line. These two are probably the hardest to project out of the whole roster, but this is a wide enough window that I think we can get away with it. These would be players who are 40-point wingers in a good season and 29-point wingers in a bad season:

• Lindblom (47 points in 52 games plus 14 points in 20 playoff games last year in the SHL, which is the third- or fourth-best league in the world - I think this level offers a reasonable window for him to try to reach)
• Weal (I believe his point-per-game pace will reflect less of his 12-points-in-23-games last season and more of his 12-points-in-37-games for his career, but you never know)

And the second line-caliber guys, aiming for 52 and 44 points:

• Filppula (sneakily scores more points that I would have thought, totaling 58-48-31-42 in his seasons since he joined Tampa Bay)
• Konecny (28 points in his rookie season, should improve and eventually get some power play production)

And, finally, the first liners. The guys at the top of the depth chart are shooting for 64 and 57 points:

• Voracek (scored 354 points in 445 games as a Flyer, an average of 65 points per 82 games)
• Simmonds (his full seasons in Philly have totals of 49-60-50-60-54 points)

How Good Are We?

Well, it hard to say. 

I think we have five 40-point wingers this year - Voracek, Simmonds, Filppula, Konecny, and one of Lindblom/Weal. If the other of Lindblom/Weal can't step up to replace Filppula in that group after he leaves, then it becomes a little more hairy. There are plenty of prospects in the pipeline, but it's difficult to say with any certainty that one of them is going to be ready to score 40 points in the NHL one year from now. 

But, for now, let's just enjoy the fact that the current Flyers forward group seems like it might just meet the criteria for this one small part of being a legitimate contender.