Wednesday, June 29, 2016

People Who Commit Insurance Fraud Are Really, Really Dumb

We've all seen anti-insurance fraud commercials where people try to get a larger TV after their house burns down or they fudge how much damage was actually done to their car. We're led to believe it's a big problem and it costs all normal, hard-working insurance payers millions or billions of dollars a year or whatever.

But it's not just your friendly neighbor down the street who wants a 70 inch screen for his weekly Football Sunday party. Take a look at some of the mugshots on this post on 6abc's website and you'll see that people from basically every walk of life commit (or at least attempt) insurance fraud.

I would LOVE to include pictures to accompany these quick-hits of what people thought they could get away with, but that's cruel and too time-consuming. So, here are some ways people have tried to scam the system and ended up costing Pennsylvania's citizens more than a quarter of a million dollars:

Thomas From Garnet Valley

I'm not sure if Thomas had malicious intentions or if he just doesn't quite know how insurance works. He crashed his car into a guard rail. It happens, I guess. They should have made the rumble strips more intense. Maybe he was sitting on some produce on his way home from the grocery store and the rumbling made him feel feelings that caused him to swerve off the road. I don't know, it didn't say.

But after he crashed into the guard rail, he tried to file claims with two separate insurance companies. How does that even work? Was he paying insurance twice?

Well, regardless, he's now in a position where his bail was set at $7,500.

Jennifer From West Chester

She crashed her car, and then decided it would be good if she had insurance. So, she bought an insurance policy for the car she had already crashed and tried to get the repair covered.

How was Geico going to prove that the accident happened before she bought the car? Right? She should have just been able to sneak it in there and get her car fixed for free.

Well, she submitted evidence to Geico telling them that her car was in the accident before the bought the policy.

And now she's got a $10,000 bail to post.

Johnny and Jennifer From Harrisburg

It's important to note that these two are brother/sister and not husband/wife. They crashed into each other, bought insurance, submitted a claim, and then provided evidence that the accident had actually happened before they bought insurance.

I'll repeat that for emphasis - they provided evidence that the claim they just submitted was fraudulent.

Edward From Philadelphia

Edward blew Jennifer and the bro/sit combo out of the water. Like her, he was in an accident when he wasn't covered by an insurance policy. But this man actually had the balls to tell the person who he hit that he was covered by Safe Auto, and then he called Safe Auto and bought himself a policy right after that.

And then Safe Auto called him a few days later and he lied to them.

And now his bail is $25,000.

Alexander From Lansdowne

I'm learning that the common theme in insurance fraud cases is people drive without insurance and then call to buy insurance after they crash their cars.

Or motorcycles, as was the case for Alex. He crashed his bike, bought an insurance policy, and then claimed his accident happened a few weeks after he bought the policy. Smart, right? Like how you aren't supposed to get a fake ID that says you're exactly 21. The most telltale sign of someone under 21 is their ID says they're a 21-year old from another state.

So our boy Alex gave himself some leeway, except his goddamn bike was in storage when he said the accident happened, and the storage guy sold him down the river.

And now Alex's bail is $25,000.

Amanda From Morton

This all happened in one day: Amanda crashed her car, Amanda bought a policy from Esurance (shoutout to Jim Halpert), Amanda filed a claim with Esurance that she was in an accident immediately after she bought the policy.

Stupidity aside, that is a lot of stuff to do in one day. And because she tried to be an overachiever and stuff a bunch of errands into one day, her bail is now $15,000.

Mark From Carnegie

Mark is 51, but he has Cool Dad types of hobbies like video games and computers. He bought a bunch of electronics (about $7,000 worth, if you're curious), and then returned them all. A few months later he alleged that someone had stolen everything from him.

Well, the investigators found out pretty easily that everything was returned, and now his bail is $25,000.

Sharon From Philadelphia

Sharon sued Wal-Mart, alleging that she suffered "serious physical injuries" when she slipped and fell in the store back in 2012.

There is a goddamn security tape showing her sitting down, then laying down on a mat, and then claiming that she was injured.

This woman's only hope is that she fried her brain with meth and she thinks she still lives in the 1980s, because otherwise she's just naturally so dumb that she's completely hopeless in life.

Eric From Philadelphia

Big E decided he didn't want to work anymore (he's 55), and wanted a little bit of an early retirement. But he hadn't, uh, actually saved up any money to retire. So he faked a back injury and forged the signature of a DEAD DOCTOR and then submitted his claim to AFLAC.

This shit used to drive me nuts when I worked at a grocery store in high school. Work! Make your own money! Save for retirement if you want to! Buy your own goddamn groceries! I'd fucking LOVE to just get money/food for free without having to do anything, but that's the easiest way to ruin society.

Fuck you, Eric! I hope your back actually does hurt but you can never get any money for it and you have to sit in your cube every day until you're 80. You dick.

Haleem and Jasmine From Philadelphia

This is more of a PSA than anything: Haleem was driving in Jasmine's car (without insurance, obviously), and some other driver crashed into him.

My man had to lie about Jasmine being with him at the time of the accident because it was her car. This is a horrible look if you are a dude. Get your own car and stop living off of your girl's accomplishments. Though, for what it's worth, Haleem and Jasmine both seem like they gave up on impressing anyone new a long time ago.

Oh, and they also both submitted false injury/medical reports to the insurance company. That'll run them each a $50,000 bail.

Lewis From Wallingford

Lewis drove his car off a cliff (or an embankment, but cliff would be way more badass), and then claimed he was the victim of a hit-and-run. To be fair, Lewis is 86 and he probably thought he was going to lose his license if the state learned that he drove his car into a ditch.

But now his car is wrecked and his bail is $10,000.

Marshal From Bath

Marshal worked for a moving company and hurt his knee a couple of years ago. He liked the whole "worker's comp" lifestyle aka getting paid to play his NHL16 Live The Life mode.

And this motherfucker also continued to play with his beer league softball team, while getting paid worker's compensation because his knee hurt too much for him to work.

If you see him around, please tell him he's an asshole. And also let him know that there's a warrant out for his arrest.

Ronnie From Beaver County

We'll end with Ronnie The Beav, who unfortunately had his couch ruined by water leaking from the ceiling. He filed an insurance claim for $4,000 (what he paid for it) plus $300 (what he paid to try to get it cleaned).

Well, the investigators did some investigating, because that's what investigators do. This dickhead only paid $450 for his couch! He didn't just try to fudge the numbers so he could buy a new one that was a little nicer. He overshot what he paid by like 900%!

And now, because I am largely not a creative person, I'm going to end this post with a GIF in honor of Ronnie:

television tbt throwback thursday dave chappelle chappelles show

Don't commit insurance fraud, folks. 

Monday, June 27, 2016

If Last Night's Game Of Thrones Were The 2016-17 Flyers

There are three things in this world that occupy the bulk of my free time and brain power. The first is the Flyers, the second is Game of Thrones, and I can't tell you what the third is because this website is rated E for Everyone.

Last night, the season six finale aired. It was, at least arguably, the best episode of the show to date and it might only be a slight overreaction to say it has established GoT as the best television show made to date.

And so, because I am a fan of ruining things to kill time at work, I'm going to give you the Flyers equivalent of each scene in last night's episode. Spoiler alert.

Loras Confesses To Homosexuality And Gets His Forehead Carved

It was a powerful scene. The once-confident Loras Tyrell, formerly known as The Knight Of The Flowers and an all-world jouster, was fully broken. His trademark flowing hair was shorn, and his cocky attitude seemed like it was from a character that Finn Jones played in another show ten years ago.

With no options left besides death, Loras committed himself to the Faith Militant and renounced all claims to Highgarden and his family's fortune. It all turned out to be irrelevant though, but more on that in the next section. The big story here was one of the cockiest, most flamboyant characters in the show's history turning into a complete shell of himself and accepting whatever fate was given to him.

Flyers parallel: RJ Umberger. Homosexuality and forehead carving aside, last year's Umberger was a totally different character than RJ's first stint in Philadelphia. He accepted the only option available to him (other than retirement/death) and spent the majority of the season in a place he didn't want to be (the press box/prison).

And then, the city exploded and the Flyers bought out Umberger, and everything that happened for the past two years/six seasons was wiped out.

Tommen Is Blocked From Attending The Trial, And Then He Kills Himself

Young King Tommen looks, longingly, from his chair out at the King's Landing skyline. We question if he even plans to attend the trials of Loras and Cersei at all. Perhaps he doesn't want to see his mother in a vulnerable state. Perhaps he can't bear to see his maybe-brainwashing-him wife. Perhaps he realizes that he's potential going to be outed as a product of incest.

And then, the choice of attending is taken away from him by The Mountain. Tommen is forced to watch his city explode, and included in the explosion are his wife, in-laws, cousin, and uncle. It's unclear if Tommen knows that his mother orchestrated everything or if he thinks she was also killed in the blast.

We don't get to find out much of what he was thinking because this happens:
Flyers parallel: I'm going to compare Vincent Lecavalier's contract to Joffrey, and then make the case that Jordan Weal is the person that came next after we got rid of that horrible contract/person (Joffrey is the horrible person by the way, because from a personality standpoints Vinny was always gracious).

We had high hopes that Weal/Tommen could be a good contributor, and then it turned out that they were both too small and largely useless. They lost out to people that were older and/or more powerful than they were, and the whole thing was rather disappointing.

Rather than throwing himself from the top floor of the Wells Fargo Center, though, I think Weal's fall next season will be down to the AHL.

Cersei Watches The City Burn, Drinks Wine, And Tortures The Woman Who Tormented Her

For the majority of the season and the seasons before it, Cersei was the victim. She was in prison, she was naked in the streets, and she was getting forced out of power by her own family. She was without her lover for most of this, and she was breaking down similar to Loras.

The difference, though, was her attitude. She was also going to hold on better than Loras because she's always been tougher than Loras. She maybe didn't mean to make her son kill himself (I say maybe there without sarcasm, because I genuinely don't know if she's just fine with it), but she saw the opportunity to seize power for herself and burn quite literally all of her enemies to the ground.

Except she saves one enemy for a special kind of spa treatment. The Shame Bell Nun, the Spoon Water Nun, the Big Ugly Nun. The person whom Cersei most closely relates to her time in prison and her walk through the streets of Kings Landing. The spa menu is waterboarding, probably a lot of Finger Yoga, and possibly rape by a semi-undead giant man?

Flyers parallel: Cersei handled breaking down better than Loras, and Mark Streit has handled his own breaking down better than Umberger. He maybe didn't mean to break his penis along the way, but he has a little left in the tank to exact his revenge on all of his haters this season.

I'd be on the lookout for Heartbreak Streit this season, and maybe be extra careful if you're an NHL player who's ever cheapshotted him or talked shit during a game.

Everyone Wants To Bang Jaime

First of all, women, Bronn is just as much of a catch as Jaime. Neither one of them is going to marry you, and they have equally cool stories to tell while you're all getting drunk at the feast. Chicks dig guys with blonde hair and unbroken noses (and a fuckton of money), so of course everyone wants to fuck the Kingslayer.

Until he tells two of the girls serving wine for the Freys how cool Bronn is, and then they take him to the champagne room.

There's no Flyers parallel here, I just wanted to rant about how shallow some women can be. Bronn is a great person and he deserved to be loved. He shouldn't have needed a referral from Jaime to get the backroom invitation.

Sam Goes To The Biggest Library Ever And Cums In His Pants

After a long journey south (which, thankfully, we didn't have to watch a lot of), Sam and Gilly arrived in Oldtown. Sam was granted entry into the largest library in the world, and he as awestruck as Arya when she saw the Hall Of Faces or Tyrion the first time he saw boobs.

He's a nerd, he'll largely stay in the background for a while, but his work will give us a TON of insight about the dragons and, more importantly, the white walkers.

Flyers parallel: Analytics. Nerds in the background who are lowkey really important? Bang. Maybe we need something better than Corsi, but more ways to measure hockey games will develop over time. You might hate Sam (you do), but he's an important piece of the puzzle.

Melisandra Admits To Burning Princess Shireen And Then Gets Banished

The was the most disappointing scene of the episode for me, because I thought there could have been more passion on both sides. Davos, for as much as he loved the princess, should have killed Melisandra himself after seeing what she did to the whole Baratheon family. The Red Woman, for her part, accepted her banishment without much of a fight.

Jon Snow, caught in the middle of his two most trusted advisers, ruled on a compromise that really is not going to benefit anyone. He loses the magic ace up his sleeve, he pisses off the lieutenant that's remaining with him, and he allows this psycho cult leader to find new people to brainwash and light on fire.

Flyers parallel: Scott Hartnell's contract. Yeah, there's an obvious benefit and I guess something had to be done. But we lost a major contributor with red hair and we didn't really gain anything except a little peace (in real life, for Jon, and on the salary cap, with Hartsy).

The New Squad Is Grandma Tyrell, The Sand Snakes, And Varys

There's obviously another squad on the way to join them, but more on that later. For now, we got back to Dorne to see Grandma Olenna OWNING the Sand girls and establishing her dominance over them. Like Cersei, her future evaporated the day her heirs died; she's just out for vengeance now.

I cannot wait for the "Grandma Kills Cersei" scene, and I'm glad the Sand Snakes are going to just be a small piece in a huge army. Let's spend as little time with those horrible accents as possible.

Flyers parallel: Laughton-Cousins-Read. The squad has someone that people on the other team really hate (Cousins/Sand Snakes), someone who has the potential to be a major factor down the road (Laughton/Varys), and someone who is old and wise (Read/Olenna).

And when we pair them up with the other help that's on the way for them, they look like they're primed to do big things. And maybe Grandma Tyrell will die and Matt Read will get traded or bought out.

Daenerys Dumps Daario

In the most heartbreaking scene of the night, our girl Dany The Dragon Queen made the tough (but politically savvy) decision to break up with her longtime boyfriend. They had been through so much together. The first time they met, Dany gave her classic "A week ago I had no army; a fortnight ago I had no dragons" speech. Now she has the full-grown dragons, the multi-layered army, and a thousand ships to sail them all across the sea.

And, because there's work to do once she gets across the sea, she can't bring a lover. She's going to have to marry for feudal alliance reasons, and she can't have the sexy guy from the guerrilla army hanging around threatening potential suitors.

It was devastating to watch Daario pour his heart out trying to convince her to bring him to Westeros, knowing that her mind was already made up and his words were largely useless.

Flyers parallel: If the Flyers don't re-sign Ryan White I will kill myself. He is our Daario Naharis and we need him to come along with us for the journeys and wars ahead of us.

I can feel myself starting to tear up just thinking about a world without Whitey. Ron, get this man locked up as soon as possible.

Daenerys Names Tyrion Hand Of The Queen

Of course, the person pulling the political strings behind the previous section was the most cunning dwarf politician not named Rand Paul, Tyrion Lannister. The Dany-Tyrion pairing is interesting on both sides. Dany has spent her whole life being used, and now she has a top political adviser who simply wants her to succeed. Tyrion has spent his whole life battling to try to prove that his height doesn't stop him from being good at what he does, and now he has an outlet for all of his knowledge and ability.

There is also seemingly no romantic or physical attraction between them, which is big because (1) Tyrion likes to fuck things and (2) they may or may not be siblings.

Flyers parallel: Our top defensive pairing, Michael Del Zotto and Radko Gudas. MDZ the hot dragon princess (or at least that's what I've heard from the Philly club scene) and Gudas is his complementary wingman.

Separate, they have obvious flaws. Together, they balance each other out.
Occasionally Dany wants to burn thousands of people alive for fun and Tyrion has to tell her not to do that. Sometimes Radko Gudas wants to blow up a teenager's skull at the blueline with two minutes left in a blowout game, and maybe Del Zotto can work on controlling Gudas just a little bit next year.

Fucking Arya, Man

I literally sat up and threw my hat across the room in disbelief when she ripped off the mask to reveal her face. I don't know if there were any signs that would have tipped off the viewers, but it came out of left field for me. I was expecting Jaime to kill Walder Frey, but Arya's Cartman-esque tactics were amazing.

On the heels of her last appearance, which was the most ridiculous sequence the show has aired to date, this was a very welcome return to the ruthless, talented Arya that we're all hoping for in the future.

Flyers parallel: Ron Hextall at the 2016 NHL Draft. We've all been aboard the Hexy train for a couple of years now, and it's largely been him building up to greatness just like Arya. We've seen different tactics and a variety of moves made, all with one goal in mind: revenge/the Stanley Cup.

But then there was that absurd stabbing/chase/rehabilitation thing with Arya, and then Ron Hextall passed on Kiefer Bellows and Julian Gauthier and opted to trade the 18th pick to New York Islanders. My faith was shaken in both instances. I thought Game of Thrones was going to start getting away from physical reality or making the show's main characters actually invincible. I thought Hextall was showing shades of Sam Hinkie by rolling draft picks into more draft picks.

And then the Flyers landed centers German Rubtsov and Pascal Laberge and goalie Carter Hart (links are to Broadstreethockey's summaries of each player). The team targeted high-IQ players with a defensive focus, which will complement the incoming offensive-minded blueline prospects. They also added the WHL goalie of the year (who also happened to be the best goalie available in the draft).

And then Arya ripped her face off and slit a man's throat after she fed him a pie made out of his own sons.

All is right in the world.

Sansa Curves Littlefinger... Again

Christ man, Littlefinger is a creep. Credit to Aidan Gillen as an actor because he just keeps upping his creepiness level around Sansa. Being friendzoned is awkward, and the best way to avoid the awkwardness is just put hundreds of miles between yourself and the girl who's not interested in you like that.

But when that girl is the daughter of another girl who friendzoned you, and then you sold that girl to a sadistic rapist, and then you connived your way into an army (killing that girl's aunt in the process) and used that army to try to get the girl to makeout with you?

I mean just fuckin' give up dude! Thanks for re-establishing the Starks at Winterfell but this girl doesn't want the responsibility that you're trying to give her, and she probably also realizes that you're a fucking asshole who's trying to get your own ass on the Iron Throne.

Flyers parallel: Stop trying to make Andrew MacDonald happen. He makes a ton of money, yes. He also actively makes everyone around him worse (except for the guys on the other team, who he makes better). It sucks to have $4 million in dead cap money for a defenseman in the minors, but we can't keep throwing him out against NHL competition and giving up possession, entries, and scoring chances.

Sansa needs to kill Littlefinger and Hextall needs to bury A-Mac with the Phantoms. They welcome his leadership, it benefits the younger guys in the system, and he's a capable minutes-eating defenseman in the minor leagues. But Baelish and MacDonald both need to stay away from the big leagues, at least as far as my teams (Flyers and Starks) are concerned.

R + L = J

I nerded the fuck out when Bran attached himself to the Weirwood tree. I was nervous that they weren't going to show us the end of the Tower scene, and if I had to wait ten months to get confirmation then I probably would have ended up in an insane asylum.

I especially liked three things about the scene.

First, Young Ned looked around before he walked up the stairs again, and this time Bran did not yell. So let's all calm down with the "Bran can control the past" theories because they're absurd and they're not going to happen. That was white walker magic and a special Bran/Hodor connection because they were both sitting in the tree.

Second, Lyanna was cast well. She was Stark through and through, and she would have been as attractive as advertised if she weren't bleeding to death.

Third, they didn't just come right out and say "I am Lyanna Stark and this is my son who is the offspring of Rheagar Targaryen." That would have been lame. The just-out-of-earshot whisper followed by "Robert will kill him if he finds out" is enough of a confirmation for the diehard fans that genuinely needed it.

It was cleverly done and deftly shot, and it transitioned perfectly to the King In The North scene. I think it's a little absurd that they keep hammering the 9-year old girl down our throats (like really, are a bunch of grizzled war veterans going to really respect the word of a girl who weighs as much as one of their legs?) but if you weren't jacked up after that scene you were probably either dead or asleep.

Flyers parallel: Prov + Rov = (100 Emoji). We all kind of know he's the real deal and it would be a SHOCK if he turned out to not be. It was just a matter of time until we found out about Jon's dragon blood, and it's only a matter of time now until Provy becomes one of the best defensemen to ever come through the Flyers organization.

Cersei Is The Queen, For Now

In the earlier section, I said Cersei was Mark Streit because those two dealt with aging/being in prison better than their counterparts. The penultimate scene of the episode was Cersei being crowned Queen once again, only now she has no family and the only thing she has to live for is her own intrinsic desires.

She's going to do a lot of burning and killing her enemies, I imagine, and she's certainly going to be the type of rule who is feared instead of loved.

Flyers parallel: Once again, Streit will be "crowned" an alternate captain this season. It's a familiar role for him and Cersei both, and it's also one that will likely be short-lived.

Cersei has a whole gaggle of enemies who want to murder her and take her crown, and Streit's contract is up after this year. I'd bet he retires from professional hockey - or at least North American professional hockey - and his 'A' will likely go to either Jake Voracek, Michael Raffl, or Michael Del Zotto.

Team Dany Is Headed For Westeros

Some of the most iconic scenes in the Game of Thrones catalog are the birds-eye view "heading out for battle" shots. Dany marching out of Astapor with her dothraki army and her dragons comes to mind as one of my favorites.

Last night, the season ended with something we've been waiting on for a very long time. Daenerys Stormborn, Breaker of Chains and Mother of Dragons, has her army on a course for Westeros. We've seen what the various pieces of her army can do, we know the world they're sailing to is vulnerable to a large-scale outside attack, and we can't possibly wait until fucking April to watch it happen.

Flyers parallel: A much-awaited army on the way to restore a dynasty from a few generations ago? That sounds like a naval unit of ships full of Provorov, Sanheim, Morin, Hagg, Konecny, Rubtsov, Leier, Laughton, Cousins, and Gostisbehere.

Friday, June 24, 2016

NHL Draft Betting Preview

The first round of the NHL Draft is tonight, and it should be just as exciting and well-produced as last night's NBA Draft because hockey is totally a Big Four Mainstream Sport in the United States. And, like all big sports, we're going to try to use our limited knowledge to make some money off of it. Bovada has a nice selection of draft prop bets available, if you're into that sort of thing.

For reference on what people smarter than me seem to think, I LOVE Platinum Seat Ghosts' Aggregate Rankings.

Defensemen Drafted In The First Round - Over/Under 8.5

The locks are Juolevi, Sergachyov, Chychrun, Bean, Fabbro, and McAvoy. Those six will all go in the first twenty picks. Then it gets a little dicey, because the next batch is a definite step down from Fabbro/McAvoy. Names like Stanley, Clague, Cholowski, Hajek, Johanson, Fox, Girard, and Deneen have all been projected - by someone or another - to go in the first round. But it's tough to say that three of them will, and I think there is enough forward depth in this draft that it won't get to nine.

Verdict: Under 8.5

Goalies Drafted In The First Round - Over/Under 0.5

In all of the projections that PSG uses to make his aggregate rankings, only two people had a goalie going in the first round. Carter Hart and Jonas Gustavsson are the only two realistic options, and their aggregate rankings are 39 and 44 overall.

What seals the deal for me is the moneyline. Over pays +200 and Under pays -300. It's not happening.

Verdict: Under 0.5

Players Drafted From The CHL (16.5), OHL (10), QMJHL (3.5), and WHL (2.5) In The First Round

The easiest way to do this is go league-by-league and then add them all up.

OHL (Over/Under 10)

Locks: Tkachuk, Juolevi, Nylander, Brown, Sergachyov, Chychrun, McLeod, Jones, DeBrincat, Stanley

Maybes: Boris Katchouk (aggregate 28, best 22), Jordan Kyrou (aggregate 32, best 28), Cluff Pu (aggregate 48, lowest 18)

Verdict: I think it very well may end up being an even ten players, but I like the low-risk opportunity. Over 10

QMJHL (Over/Under 3.5)

Locks: Dubois, Gauthier

Maybes: Pascal Laberge (aggregate 27, best 23), Vitaly Abramov (aggregate 30, best 21), Samuel Girard (aggregate 46, best 23)

Verdict: I think we're good for at least four. Over 3.5's a good play

WHL (Over/Under 2.5)

Locks: Bean, Howden

Maybes: Kale Clague (aggregate 31, best 22), Tyler Benson (aggregate 34, best 18), Libor Hajek (aggregate 35, best 26), Carter Hart (aggregate 39, best 24)

Verdict: Clague and/or Benson are probably good, so that'll take us through. Over 2.5

CHL (Over/Under 16.5)

And now we just add it all up. The locks are 10 from the OHL, 2 from the Q, and 2 from the WHL. If you trust my super-uninformed analysis, I'm thinking a pair of the maybes from each of the Q and WHL are getting drafted.

Verdict: Over 16.5

Players From The USHL/USDP/NCAA (Over/Under 6)

Locks: Keller, McAvoy, Bellows, Kunin, Tufte

Maybes: Tage Thompson (aggregate 29, best 24), Adam Fox (aggregate 45, best 27)

Verdict: I feel the opposite here than I did about the OHL. I think best-case scenario is six, and I could see it only being five. It's not worth the risk for me either way.

Bet Slip

Under 8.5 defensemen
Under 0.5 goalies
Over 10 from the OHL
Over 3.5 from the QMJHL
Over 2.5 from the WHL
Over 16.5 from the CHL

Thursday, June 23, 2016

Let's Tackle Some Fictional Flyers Pre-Draft Trade Props

As the NHL Draft approaches, the internet kind of melts to the ground with rumors and suggestions and ideas. Hockey Twitter is the greatest, and this is its shining moment of chaos.

Whoever runs Flyers Nerd is throwing out a bunch of options, and I wanted to throw in my two cents:

Kevin Shattenkirk
Shattenkirk is on every team's wish list this summer. He's particularly enticing for Flyers fans because he's an elite talent, a right-handed shot, and available at a cap hit of just $4.25 million. If a long-term extension was involved, I'd love to add him to the lineup.

But a long-term extension is not involved, and I'd rather chew off my own hand than trade Sanheim (plus another asset) for someone that could either (1) demand a ton of money or (2) walk away for nothing next summer.

Verdict: Nope

Calgary's 6th Overall Pick

Mason, in my mind, is the long-term goalie for the playoff runs that this core is going to make. Morin, though not as high on the list as Provorov and Sanheim, is also going to factor into those future Flyers teams.

However, this 6th overall pick would mean turning Morin into a higher-end blueline prospect like Sergachyov,  Juolevi, or Chychrun. It could also end up netting a top-end forward prospect to add to Travis Konecny, which could be names like Dubois, Nylander, Brown, or Keller.

In my humble, uninformed opinion, I think Mason's present value and Morin's future value are far more than anybody who will be available at number six. Maybe Chychrun or Juolevi will turn into top-pairing guys, but the only prospects I could see trading Mason/Morin for would have to be selected with Edmonton's 4th overall pick.

Verdict: Nope

Taylor Hall

NO! Sports are part business and part entertainment, and trading the fan favorite rookie sensation is bad for both. It's also, in this case, bad for the actual on-ice sports product.

Verdict: You Shut Your Whore Mouth

General 'Trade Up In The Draft' Talk

The Flyers are going to be able to draft a decent forward prospect at 18. They aren't going to fuck it up, and if no moves are made everything will be alright.

But, if Hextall likes one of those forward prospects I mentioned above, it would be pretty easy for him to package #18 with a combination of his second, third, and fourth rounders (of which he has two of each) to move up and grab his guy.

Flyers Offseason Wish List: Nail Yakupov

Nail, son of Rail, born in the Republic of Tatarstan in 1993. Sarnia Sting alumnus. Current Edmonton Oiler. Former first overall pick.

And... available for super cheap?
Rishaug, in this situation, is TSN's Oilers reporter Ryan Rishaug.

Why would any team, especially one on the rise, not use a second round pick to draft a 22-year old winger with as much potential as anyone on the market besides Steven Stamkos? Is there really any risk here?

He's due $2.5 million this year, and then he's a restricted free agent. If he kills it and you want to keep him, great. If he kills it and then costs too much money, you let someone else sign him away from you and get compensated. If he stinks, you just let him walk at the end of the year and you're down a second round pick.

I'll keep this short because I don't want to miss a breaking story: the Flyers have picks #48 and 52 in the second round and picks #79 and 82 in the third round. If any combination of those picks turns into Nail Yakupov in orange and black, that will be a GREAT thing in my book.

Wednesday, June 22, 2016

Would A 'Cap Floor' Team Take Mark Streit From The Flyers?

The contracts of Andrew MacDonald and Mark Streit cause two headaches for the Philadelphia Flyers. The first, obviously, is the money. Streit, though he is off the books after this season, is set to make $4 million in cash with a $5.25 million cap hit. MacDonald, signed through 2020, has a cap hit of $5 million and his actual salary rises above that point for its final three years.

The second issue is the fact that they take up roster spots on Philadelphia's crowded blueline. Names like Provorov, Sanheim, Haag, and Morin haven't been given the chance to make the jump to the NHL. This may be due to youth/inexperience, but you'd be hard pressed to find anyone who would rather have MacDonald/Streit for $10 million than Provorov/Sanheim for $2 million.

So.. can we dump those big contracts to create cap flexibility and some roster spots for the young guns?
As it stands, the Flyers have $59.7 million committed to 9 forwards, 5 defensemen, and 2 goalies for next season. Add in probably figures for Brayden Schenn, Nick Cousins, Ryan White, Radko Gudas, and Brandon Manning and we come to just about $70 million for 12 forwards, 7 defensemen, and 2 goalies:

  • Giroux, Voracek, Simmonds, Couturier, Read, Schenn, Raffl, Laughton, Cousins, White, Vandevelde, Bellemare
  • Streit, Schultz, Del Zotto, Gudas, Gostisbehere, MacDonald, Manning
  • Mason, Neuvirth

With the current roster setup, they have a complete lineup with about $3 million in cap room. However, this is largely the same team as last year with minimal growth opportunity (and that opportunity is in the middle six forwards, which isn't great).

Let's make The Flyers great again. Warning: this post is about to go off the rails. Can we dump Streit?

I'm jumping into delusional territory, and even I don't think anyone will willingly take on MacDonald's contract. He's a passive defenseman with so-so puck skills, he's owed even more money than his absurdly high cap hit until kids who just graduated from middle school are headed off to college.

Streit, though? His cap figure isn't ideal, but he's owed just $4 million if the Flyers could find a cap floor team to take him off their hands. Are any of them looking for a veteran defenseman who is capable of moving the puck and playing on the powerplay?

Arizona Coyotes

From the cap floor: $14.1 million

Current defensemen: Three. Ekman-Larsson, Goligoski, Michalek, plus they also have several 24-26 year old RFAs to make decisions on

Does Streit fit?: If you had asked me one day ago, I would have said yes. But the 'Yotes signed Goligoski to a 5 year/$27 million contract last night and I'd imagine they'll fill the rest of their d-corps with those RFAs. But, if they are still miles away from the floor and don't want to commit money to free agents that might hinder their ability to pay Domi and Duclair when they become free agents, Streit might be a short-term fit worth a mid-to-late round pick.

Fun fact: When Goligoski's contract expires, he will still not be as old as Mark Streit is right now.

New Jersey Devils

From the cap floor: $10.4 million

Current defensemen: Four. Greene, Larsson, Moore, Severson. Boston College's Steven Santini might make the jump this year.

Does Streit fit?: They certainly could use some offensive production, though I'm not sure if their complete lack of excitement is a bad thing or a good thing in their eyes. Like Arizona, Jersey could use Streit as a short-term plug until more of their prospects are ready to compete, and they'd then have some additional cap space to spend at that point.

Fun fact: The Devils are the worst.

Carolina Hurricanes

From the cap floor: $5.7 million
Current defensemen: Six. Wisniewski, Faulk, Hainsey, Hanifin, Slavin, Pesce. They also have RFAs Ryan Murphy (from American Horror Story/Glee) and Michal Jordan (from Basketball), as well as prospects Haydn Fleury and Roland McKeown.

Does Streit fit?: Long term? Absolutely not. Short term? Probably not. If some things fall into place and Carolina (1) decides the younger guys/prospects are better suited for another year of development in the minors (2) suffers a fairly long-term but not season-ending injury on the blueline (3) is competitive in the Metro this season, then I think they may consider trading for Streit as a mid-season reinforcement.

Fun fact: All of those things are not going to happen, and the Hurricanes are not going to acquire Mark Streit.


We're stuck with him, and that's not a bad thing. He stinks now, but he's an alternate captain, a veteran presence, and a leader. This is going to be a growth year, and it'll be nice to have a steady hand like Streit's guiding the way.

NHL Awards Preview

Tonight is the night! Everyone's favorite Bluth brother (Gob, obviously) is hosting the NHL Awards Live from New NHL Team Haver Las Vegas. It's going to hopefully be an entertaining night for a league that has had some issues nailing these kinds of nights. In addition to Will Arnett, the list of presenters is... interesting:
 Tony X, of course, is Hockey's First Black Fan and I really hope the NHL makes him present with Anson Carter because I think the internet will legitimately melt.

We'll get some hot blondes to look at, and we'll also get Jason Priestley (who I may or may not be named after, I'm still waiting on an official ruling from my mom).

But what really matters tonight is the awards and who is going to win them. Let's jump in:

Hart Memorial Trophy and Vezina Trophy

Patrick Kane -1100 and Braden Holtby -3000

I'm going to combine these two categories into one big boring one because Kaner and Holtby ran away with them over the course of the year.

Calder Memorial Trophy

Artemi Panarin -375
Connor McDavid +270
Shayne Gostisbehere +900

The Rookie of the Year award this year isn't going to go to the most talented rookie (McDavid) or the most valuable (Gostisbehere). It's going to Panarin, who played on a line with the guy who led the league in points and led his team to three Stanley Cups in the last six years.

You can bet Panarin with 100% certainty that he's going to win, though you're going to want to throw him into a parlay to make it worth anything. (Panarin-Kane-Holtby parlay pays -233)

Frank J. Selke Award

Anze Kopitar -110
Patrice Bergeron EVEN
Ryan Kesler +650

Bergey has already won this award three times, and for good reason - he's a lockdown center, and this award rotates between him and Toews (Kesler won it in 2011, and before that it was Datsyuk and Brind'Amour for five years).

Much like the Bergeron/Toews/Kopitar group took over after the Datsyuk/Brindy phase, there is another group of Selke Guys on the horizon. Names like Aleksander Barkov and Sean Couturier will creep in, and Panthers/Flyers fans will argue for their inclusion in the award discussion well before they are ready.

But this year, I think it has to be Kopitar. He's always been in the discussion, and I believe the Hockey Media will reward him for that. Yes, obviously Bergeron is deserving. But Kopitar has been a "Selke Guy" for a while and he just got the captaincy in LA. It's time he got his trophy.

Jack Adams Award

Barry Trotz -135
Gerard Gallant +105
Lindy Ruff +900

I wonder if we can find out when these ballots were due, because if playoff performance is going to be factored in I'd take Gallant. Trotz was handed a roster that would have won 60 games if you simulated the season on NHL16. Gallant took a team full of old guys and rookies and turned them into a dark horse candidate in the Atlantic with an extremely bright future, though they were bounced in the first round.

(Does a Google search) Okay so the ballots were due at the end of the regular season, meaning we're choosing between the coach who rode his stacked roster to the Presidents' Trophy and the coach who rode his hodgepodge roster to the best season in franchise history. Recent history tends to favor the coach of the team that wasn't an all-time great, plus Fuck The Caps. I'll take Gallant at +105.

James Norris Trophy

Erik Karlsson -145
Drew Doughty +145
Brent Burns +550

I made a joke earlier about the internet burning to the ground if the make the two black guys present together, but that almost doesn't even matter because it's going to burn to the ground anyway when they announce the Norris winner.

Karlsson doesn't play defense, Doughty doesn't play offense, and Burns plays both very well but apparently isn't a legit candidate.

People much smarter than me have made cases for Karlsson, Doughty, and Burns (probably a hundred times apiece for the first two). In my Dumb Person analysis, here's what I can recall from my various reading over the course of the year (all facts may or may not be true):

  • Karlsson plays more minutes than anyone in the league. His team is about league average with him on the ice, and they would drop to an Auston Matthews sweepstakes-caliber team with him on the bench. The big knock on him is he quarterbacks the Senators' offense instead of just standing in front of slapshots all night. 
  • Doughty is a classic defense-first defenseman's defenseman. He may not score a lot of goals or generate a lot of offense, but he Gets To The Dirty Areas and Plays Physical In His Own End. Or something. I don't know. His offensive production is so bad that one person making charts comparing all the possible Norris candidates (I'm drawing a blank on who it was but I'll update this if I can find it) had to actually lower his limits for offensive production to get Doughty included in the top 20 defensemen. 
  • Burns led all defensemen league-wide in goals. 
If you can't tell from those summaries, I think Karlsson should win and I'd prefer Burns over Doughty. But this is a two-horse race, and I'm backing EK. If I have to pick one reason, it's the difference in the Sens' on-ice product when he's on the ice versus when he's on the bench. 

The Bet Slip

Kane/Holtby/Panarin parlay -233
Kopitar -110
Gallant +105
Karlsson -145

Tuesday, June 21, 2016

Copa America Betting Preview: USA-Argentina

Tonight is potentially the night that soccer finally becomes big in America. We've been building up to the moment for decades, and several games (the one that comes to mind most recently was against Belgium) have almost broken the way of the Yanks.

Well, tonight the Stars And Stripes have another chance to take down a world powerhouse. It's USA versus Argentina at 9:00 from Houston.

Oh wait before I get you all hyped up, I should probably mention that we have absolutely NO chance of beating Argentina and when we lose soccer will fade into the background again until the next major international tournament.

Let's look at some of the lines that are available tonight, courtesy of Bovada:

To Score A Goal


  • Dempsey +280 and Wondolowski +300 are the two most important strikers
  • Zardes +350, Pulisic +380, Nagbe +380, Zusi +380, and Bradley +450 all seem like their odds are super low considering none of them are going to score
  • Fabian Johnson +1000 and DeAndre Yedlin +2200 would be my value plays, but...
  • Lamela +210, Lavezzi +250, and Pastore +260 are all more likely than any American
  • Higuain +105 and Aguero +110 are both decent bets
  • Messi -110 is available aka Lionel Messi is scoring a goal tonight

    Messi to score and Argentina to win parlay pays +125 - I think that's a good bet for tonight. 

    Total Goals
    • Total over/under line is 2.5 (-115)
    • Argentina over 1.5 pays -165
    • USA over 0.5 pays -125
    So Argentina is more likely to score two goals than the US is to score one. 

    To Qualify/Advance
    • USA +450
    • Argentina -750
    I mean the numbers just keep backing up the fact that we, as Americans, have no chance tonight. 

    Exact Correct Score

    This is my favorite place in the Bovada ticket to analyze, because it gives you a sliding scale of the different possibilities and how likely the sharps in Vegas think they are. In order:
    • Argentina 1-0 and 2-0 are both +475
    • Argentina 2-1 and Draw 1-1 are both +650
    • Argentina 3-0 is +750 and Argentina 3-1 is +1050
    • Draw 0-0 is +1000 (this would really do wonders for soccer in the US)
    • Then we finally get a USA line, as 1-0 pays +1400 and 2-1 pays +2000
    • Some other not-quite longshots: Draw 2-2 +1800, Argentina 3-2 +2800, Argentina 4-0 +1600, Argentina 4-1 +2200
    • The biggest Argentina line available is Argentina 6-0 +8000. For that same price you can get USA 3-0, 3-1, or 3-2

    Goal Spread

    The bet of the night is Argentina -1 (-140)

    Bet Slip
    • Argentina -1 (-140)
    • Messi to score and Argentina to win (+125)
    • Over 2.5 (-115)
    • Argentina 4-0 (+1600) - this one is kind of sadistic

    Thursday, June 16, 2016

    Led Zeppelin Is In a Brutal Court Battle Over 'Stairway To Heaven'

    If you didn't really remember that Led Zeppelin was getting sued by an old psychedelic rock band about the rights to Stairway to Heaven, you're not alone. I had completely forgotten too (just like people forgot about that other band, BURN). I'm not going to name that other band, and that is purely a spiteful, disrespectful move.

    But the lawsuit is happening, and it's currently in the court procedure phase. The big story today was the testimony of guitarist Jimmy Page. Here's what I can find online about what he said on the stand (via Rolling Stone):

    Jimmy Page Doesn't Do The Internet

    The lawyers were grilling him on his extensive music collection (more than 10,000 LPs and CDs) and trying to prove that he was familiar with the psych rock band's song that was allegedly stolen. Page admitted to knowing of the band, but denied knowing that song.

    In fact, he said he just learned about that song a few years ago, via the internet. Or, I guess more accurately, via his step-son:
    'Something appeared on the Internet - there was a buzz going on in the comparison [between "Taurus" and "Stairway"] a few years ago. My son-in-law brought it up; I don't do the Internet, so he played it for me."
    Is there a more old guy rock and roll superstar move than just straight up ignoring the internet?

    Stairway Was Not Written Where People Thought It Was

    I did not know this story, but apparently the historical legend of Stairway says it was written at Bron-Yr-Aur, a cottage in Wales that has a track on Physical Graffiti named for it. I jumped into the Wikipedia page for the cottage (no joke there are a full 8 paragraphs plus pictures) and here's what I found:

    • The cottage was Robert Plant's family vacation home
    • Page, Plant, their significant others, Plant's kid, and two roadies stayed there in 1970
    • The house didn't have running water or electricity
    • It's never actually mentioned, but I'm assuming they all did a fuck-ton of drugs
    • Jimmy Page did sex at least once during that vacation and his daughter was conceived
    • There are more than a handful of songs that were written at Bron-Yr-Aur, but only one more famous than this one:

    That more famous one, of course, would be Stairway To Heaven. That was Bron-Yr-Aur's claim to fame. These guys and girls got so fucked on drugs at a cottage in the Welsh mountains that they all though they were dying (or something, I'm still a little unclear on the meaning of the song).

    And today, Jimmy Page tore the cottage's prize possession from its Wikipedia page.

    Stairway, it turns out, was actually written at Headley Grange. If you thought Bron-Yr-Aur's story was cool, wait until you learn about Headley Grange:

    • It was built in 1795 and originally used as basically an internment camp for the poor
    • There were some pretty sweet riots in 1830, which makes sense because of the internment camp thing
    • A builder named Thomas Kemp bought it in 1870 for the nice price of ‎£420 and turned it into his house
    • Quick side note: How fucked up do you have to be to buy a building that housed (and abused) a bunch of poor people and turn it into your house?
    • It was passed around from various members or various families for nearly a century
    • By the 1960s and 1970s, it had been converted into a music studio, as the drawing room had peak acoustic conditions
    • In addition to Led Zeppelin, bands that have worked at Headley Grange include Fleetwood Mac, Bad Company, Genesis, and Peter Frampton
    • The Headley Grange track list includes Stairway, Black Dog (there was literally just a dog that ran around the estate), When The Levee Breaks, and I'm sure dozens more

    Let's be honest, this Headley Grange/Bron-Yr-Aur news is largely just the correction of a decades-old story that doesn't really actually mean all that much. This whole trial is pretty goddamn boring. Page and Plant are both rich as shit, and they're always going to be rich as shit.

    The only possible way this trial could end up being noteworthy is if this psych rock band (and the British justice system) somehow put them in an emotional or financial position to start touring again.

    Rolling Stone News Headline Of My Dreams: Page, Plant, Jones, Bonham Announce 'Fuck Your Psychadelic Rock Band' Tour

    Tuesday, June 14, 2016

    I Stole Dave Isaac's Flyers Mailbag Again

    As per official Bullets Blog rules, when I see a tweet like this one from my man Dave Isaac I am legally obligated to steal all of the questions and give the correct answers to the internet.
    Question 1, from Steve Venuti @Venoot_TheBrute
    @davegisaac Rubtsov, Bellows, Kunin, Jones, and Gauthier are on the board at 18. Who do the flyers take? #FlyersMailbag

    Dave's answer: Gauthier from a needs standpoint and a skill standpoint, but Bellows because his style of play fits Coach Hakstol's system to a T. 

    Correct answer: If Gauthier is still there, he's a no-brainer. He won't be there at 18 though, and Bellows is too trendy of a pick for my liking. I'm taking Max Jones and his 6'3" 200-pound self because we need some size. 

    Question 2, from jsaquella @jsaquella

    @davegisaac Does Ron Hextall make a trade to move up in draft? #FlyersMailbag

    Dave's answer: A vague mention of possibly maybe trading for Edmonton's 4th overall pick but it's just a possibility so we'll see. 

    Correct answer: We aren't getting Matthews, or the Fins, or Tkachuk. The price is going to be too high and I'd rather take my chances with a few picks from the first three rounds than put all my eggs into one basket. That said, much like he did to draft Travis Konecny last year, if Hextall likes any of the middle-of-the-first-round guys he should pounce. Personally, I'd do whatever it takes to make sure we get Gauthier. 

    Question 3, from Downovan McSadd @MattGrumbrecht

    @davegisaac what Flyers player is most likely to be moved at the draft #FlyersMailbag

    Dave's answer: Probably not Streit, or Read, or either one of the goalies. So... nobody?

    Correct answer: I think the most likely outcome is "nobody gets moved" so I guess I shouldn't really jab Dave too much. But the most likely player to move, at this point in time, would be Brayden Schenn. I think the overwhelming likelihood is he gets re-signed to a long-term deal, but if the team and player are too far apart it might make sense to shop him around this summer. 

    Question 4, from LHD @LHD20

    @davegisaac Hexy preaches patience w/young players--look at Pitt w/their young players in SCF. will he change course?#FlyersMailbag

    Dave's answer: "No way, (San) Jose."

    Correct answer: Racist anti-Mexican jokes aside, this is the biggest question going into the season. We know, for the most part, what this team is going to be. The only roster decisions are Provorov, Sanheim, and Konecny. We've seen the distinction between regular season hockey and playoff hockey, and these kids are going to have to contribute soon enough that Giroux/Voracek are still in their primes. Konecny is small so I would understand another year in the OHL for him, but I can't find a reason for Provorov/Sanheim not to take the place of MacDonald and Streit in the regular lineup. 

    Question 5, from SketchierFaun @SketchierFaun75

    @davegisaac even with draft protection clarification, do you still see the #Flyers buying out Umberger? #FlyersMailBag

    Dave's answer: Absolutely. 

    Correct answer: This is the worst question of the mailbag, so congrats to Sketchier Faun. The Umberger buyout is going to be announced tomorrow at 5pm, literally as soon as they can possibly announce it. 

    Question 6, from Milwaukee81* @Milwaukee81

    @davegisaac Dave, How do you expect the Flyers to improve the 2nd & 3rd lines? #FlyersMailbag

    Dave's answer: The top two lines are going to remain largely the same. Such insight!

    Correct answer: I touched on this a few weeks ago. I think Hakstol should take a page from the Penguins, split up Giroux, Voracek, and Couturier, and roll a balanced top nine. Schenn-Giroux-Simmonds carried the load during the playoff push; Raffl-Couturier-Read are a responsible above-average defensive/checking line; Laughton-Cousins-Voracek would certainly be an experiment but those three have a high enough pedigree that I'd expect them to fill the back of the net. 

    Question 7, from BIG CHEEF @thacheef1

    @davegisaac #FlyersMailbag How much cap space do they have , and players they might target ?

    Dave's answer: $9 million. Some of that has to go to Schenn. The Flyers should also look to target rookie Jimmy Vesey, who will have his base salary capped at $950k but could (and will) be loaded up with incentives. 

    Correct answer: $12 million (Dave forgot about Vinny Lecavalier's pending retirement). The bulk of that money is already earmarked for Schenn, Cousins, Gudas, and (maybe) Manning. I know I mentioned above that I'd like to clear out some space for Provorov/Konecny, but capable NHL defensemen for less than $1 million don't grow on trees. The number I calculated for Hextall's cap space after he takes care of his boys was between $3-4 million to split between a pair of forwards. One should be Ryan White, and the other is Hexy's chance to put his name on this Flyers offseason. 

    Question 8, from Jon Matty @Jon_Matty

    @davegisaac which kids make the team from camp. Does anyone get called up and stay up. #FlyersMailbag

    Dave's answer: Provorov out of camp. Konecny out of camp if he blows the doors off. Morin at some point this season. 

    Correct answer: Dave nailed it. I'd also add Sanheim in with Morin as an injury/trade replacement at some point during the year. 

    Question 9, from Broph @cbrophy88

    @davegisaac do you think the flyers will be able trade Streit, free up enough cap space and in turn take a run a Stamkos?#flyersmailbag

    Dave's answer: No and absolutely not.

    Correct answer: Thanks to Broph for asking the important questions. No, the Flyers will not be able to trade their 38 year old deteriorating defenseman with a broken penis and a $5.25 million cap hit. And no, they will not be targeting the most expensive free agent in NHL history with their $3-4 million in cap space. 

    Question 10, from R F Carp @IM_A_Carp

    @davegisaac #Flyers need scoring NOW. Scott Hartnell waives no trade clause. Do the Flyers make a move? #FlyersMailbag

    Dave's answer: No, with a funny joke about Hartnell falling down a lot thrown in for some entertainment. 

    Correct answer: The mailbag is now complete, because we have mentioned both a huge free agent and a Former Flyer. I'd also like to amend my previous announcement of the Worst Question Award - this has to be the worst Flyers Mailbag question ever. 

    We sat through two goddamn years of RJ Umberger instead of Scott Hartnell so we could move that money off the books this summer. And now, after dealing with a far inferior player for two seasons, we're going to bring back Hartnell's $4.75 million cap hit until 2019 anyway? 

    I mean, maybe, MAYBE if Columbus ate half of his money I could see him fitting into the top nine. But if you are suggesting that we basically just negate all of the benefits of the Hartnell-Umberger trade and I wasted the last two years watching RJ Umbeger in a Flyers jersey then you are the worst fan in the world. 

    Question 11, from Flyers @shanemoretuzzo

    @davegisaac Who are the Flyers top 6 dmen at the end of the 2016-17 season? #Flyersmailbag

    Dave's answer: MDZ-Ghost, AMac-Streit, Provorov-Gudas, Schultz

    Correct answer: MDZ-Provorov, Ghost-Streit, Gudas-Schultz, Manning (Manning will be the 7th defenseman in my heart until the day he retires). To critique Dave's logic, I don't think the MacDonald-Streit pairing is a good idea. I actually think it is a really really bad idea. In my mind, Streit is no longer capable of being The Puck Mover on his pairing and MacDonald isn't capable of Playing In The NHL. I like Ghost and Streit together. 

    I also had a tough timing figuring out what to do with Provorov, because he's going to require some shelter and it's tough to do that by pairing him with one of the horses (MDZ, Gudas, Schultz). I would, however, worry about a sheltered uber-attack pairing of Ghost-Provy just because of their youth and lack of physicality. 

    Thus, I'm sticking Provorov with MDZ and hoping he's developed into that role by the end of the year. I'm sticking Ghost and Streit together because I like that pairing a lot. And Gudas and Schultz are going to get buried in their own end a lot, but hopefully balancing the top three forward lines will help alleviate that. 

    Question 12, from flyguys30 @Flyguys30

    @davegisaac what are the chances they land eriksson, and if they do what are the contract terms? #FlyersMailbag

    Dave's answer: No way. 

    Correct answer: I rag on Maple Leafs fans in this blog quite a bit because they are largely Dumb Fans. This is a stark reminder that every team has Dumb Fans. No, Hextall is not going to commit hit up-and-coming team to a 30 year old scoring winger who's going to be 32 or 33 by the time our prospects all come to fruition. 

    Question 13, from Maximus Chaos @Guppies97

    @davegisaac who do you think would be more valuable to Flyers, Brayden Schenn or Sami Vatanen & why?#FlyersMailbag

    Dave's answer: Schenn because the Flyers already have blueline prospects and they need forwards that can contribute. 

    Correct answer: This one's a bloodbath, folks. 

    Question 14, from Chris Olivo @ChrisOlivo72

    @davegisaac What are Hextall's expectations of the team for next season after making the playoffs last spring?#FlyersMailbag

    Dave's answer: Take the next step forward. No word on what the next step is, but they're going to try to take it. 

    Correct answer: Make the playoffs (not via the Wild Card) and advance to the second round. 

    Monday, June 13, 2016

    Does AHL Success Translate To NHL Success?

    As per my usual Monday routine, I spend the whole day in my cubicle consuming content online about sports and Game of Thrones. One of my weekly reads is Sean McIndoe's Weekend Report - now hosted on Vice Sports - which is, of course, hockey-related things. Here's an excerpt that made me curious:
    Top Five
    Celebrating those who've had the best week.
    The Lake Erie Monsters—The Penguins weren't the only team to win a title over the weekend. The Blue Jackets' AHL affiliate completed a sweep of the Hershey Bears on Saturday to capture the Calder Cup. That completed a dominant playoff run in which the Monsters went 15-2.
    Minor league championships can be tricky—sometimes the best AHL team is the one stacked with veteran and fringe pros, not necessarily prospects with NHL futures. But the Monsters are a reasonably young group, one that includes top prospects like Zach Werenski and Oliver Bjorkstrand (who was named playoff MVP). Their success is good news for a Blue Jackets organization that could certainly use some after another tough year at the NHL level.
    Does this mean the Blue Jackets are going to have an influx of talent in the coming years? I mean, we know their forward group is very top-heavy with expensive guys over the age of 30. Could some young, cheap, talented guys join the mix and turn them into a real threat in the Metropolitan Division?

    It's going to depend on two things.

    Thing One: The Lake Erie Monsters

    The question: Was this Calder Cup-caliber team made up on young up-and-comers or guys who just weren't good enough to play in the big league?

    The answer: Every single player on the roster was either acquired this year or last year. The team is made up of two teenagers, two 20-year-olds, three 21-year-olds, three 22-year-olds, five 23-year-olds, two 24-year-olds, three 25-year-olds, and nine players 26 or older. I drew the line at 25 because it's a nice round number and if you can't crack the NHL by 26, you're probably not going to be a huge factor in a Stanley Cup run.

    Of the 20 players who made my cut, let's look at who actually contributed to the team's success this season/postseason:

    • TJ Tynan (24) led the team with 46 points (6 goals, 40 assists) in the regular season, but scored just 6 points (1 goal, 5 assists) in 17 playoff games
    • Daniel Zaar (22) led with 21 goals during the season (plus 22 assists for 43 points), and added 7 goals and 5 assists in the playoffs
    • Michael Chaput (24) also cleared the 40-point threshold with 16 goals and 29 assists, and then he added 2 goals and 6 assists in the playoffs
    • Josh Anderson (22) and Alex Broadhurst (23) finished the season with 39 and 36 points, respectively, and then they each contributed 12 points in the playoff run
    • Youngsters Sonny Milano (20) scored 14 goals and 17 assists in just 54 games during the season, and he also contributed 4 goals and 4 assists in the playoffs
    • Almost-As-Young-As-Sonny-Milano Oliver Bjorkstrand (21) scored 29 points in just 51 games during the season, and then led the team with 10 goals and 16 points in the playoffs
    • Lucas Sedlak (23) tied Bjorkstrand's playoff point total, but did it with 9 goals and 7 assists
    • The Youngest Guy On The Team Zach Werenski (18) played just 7 games with Lake Erie during the season, but he contributed 5 goals and 9 assists in the playoffs
    • Markus Hannikainen (23) totaled 20 points during the season and 10 points during the playoff run
    • Kerby Rychel (21) led the younger half of the team with 0.74 points per game in the regular season, but scored just 1 goal and 5 points in the playoffs
    It'd be tough to say that anybody really set the league on fire during the regular season or playoffs, especially since playoff point totals can be flukey. But there are some decently-big-name prospects in the mix, and their entire roster contributed pretty evenly during the regular season and playoffs. 

    There aren't any "slam dunk" prospects, but Zaar, Anderson, Broadhurst, Milano, Bjorkstrand, Werenski, Anderson, and Hannikainen are a solid group to choose from and Tynan/Rychel can't take too much flack for their lackluster playoffs. Those nine are six wingers, two centers, and one defenseman. 

    Mix that group in with the young core already in the NHL - Saad, Atkinson, Jenner, Wennberg, Karlsson, Murray, and Seth Jones - and the third pick in this upcoming draft and you have, potentially, a very solid team. 

    Also, quick side note/fun fact combo about the Monsters. They play in the Quicken Loans Arena, home of the Future NBA Finals Losing Cleveland Cavaliers. No word on how this affects these Monsters in their potential NHL careers, but my gut says it's not great.

    Thing Two: Does A Calder Cup Win Translate?

    The question: Is there any correlation between the AHL championship and the NHL championship?

    This is what I was really excited to look at, and then I fell down the rabbit hole of looking at Columbus' AHL affiliate's roster and stats.

    The logic here is simple: a young core that wins an AHL title is going to probably play together in the NHL a few years later, and they should be competitive at the NHL level too. Let's go back and look at some old Calder Cup winners to see if this translates:

    2004-05 Philadelphia Phantoms

    Ah, the Carter/Richards/Sharp/Nittymaki Phantoms. What a great place to start. Those three skaters combined for 59 points in 21 games, and Nittymaki ran through the playoffs with a 0.943 save percentage. The Phantoms lost just 5 games total, and they brought back Philly's first hockey championship since 1975.

    Five years later, the Flyers played the Blackhawks in the 2010 Stanley Cup Finals. The series was eventually cancelled due to a power outage throughout the entire United States, and nobody ended up winning the Cup. The end.

    2005-06 Hershey Bears

    This one is going to fall under the category of Fluke/Stolen By A Hot Goalie. Yes, the Bears are the AHL affiliate of the powerhouse Washington Capitals. No, this Bears team did not have anybody important from any of those Caps teams.

    This was led in scoring during the regular season by Tomas Fleischmann, Lawrence Nycholat, Eric Fehr, Joey Tenute, Boyd Kane, Mike Green, and Graham Mink. Goalie Frederic Cassivi won all 16 games for the Bears (an AHL record, because it's impossible to win more than that), again losing just five games total in the whole playoff.

    And, because it's fun to mention, the Capitals have not advanced to a Stanley Cup Final since this Calder Cup victory.

    2006-07 Hamilton Bulldogs

    Here's another fun fact for you: this AHL Bulldogs team plays in Hamilton, Ontario. There is also a Hamilton Bulldogs (in Hamilton, Ontario) that plays in the OHL. They have the same name, the same home arena, and the same logo (but the colors are different). I hope they have a Hamilton Derby where they play each other and cause a blood feud between their fans.

    Update: cancel that whole paragraph. The AHL Bulldogs that we're talking about in this section moved to St. Johns in 2015, and that's when the OHL Bulldogs moved to Hamilton and took their place. I apologize for the confusion, and I am still really hoping for the blood feud.

    This 2007 run was led by a pair of future NHL goalies, Jaroslav Halak and Carey Price. Price carried the load in the playoffs, and this was a borderline repeat of the 2006 Stolen By A Hot Goalie storyline. Hamilton/St. John's is the AHL affiliate of the Montreal Canadiens, and there was not a single non-Price Bulldog to play for the Habs in their 2013-14 Eastern Conference Finals run.

    2007-08 Chicago Wolves

    It's important to note that the Wolves are not the AHL affiliate of the Chicago Blackhawks (that's the Rockford Ice Hogs), but rather the St. Louis Blues.

    The Blues have had some rough luck since this Calder Cup win, running into the Blackhawks and Kings in the playoffs at the wrong times and ultimately never advancing past the second round until this past season. But, for the purposes of this post, we should look at any players that have contributed to the Blues' regular season success.

    There is nobody. The only names I recognize are Kari Lehtonen (now a Dallas Star) and Ondrej Pavelec (now a Winnipeg Jet). Maybe this whole "AHL --> NHL" thing isn't really correlated at all.

    Update: this isn't actually my job, but god damnit I am bad at my job here. The Wolves, in the past half-decade, have been affiliated with the Thrashers, Jets, Canucks, and Blues. My point remains, though - nobody on this 2007-08 Wolves team has won a Cup in the big league.

    2008-09 Hershey Bears

    We're back to the Junior Caps again, but with some new talent mixed in. Three of the Bears' top four scorers were 27 or older, and the youngsters that contributed most were Chris Bourque, Kyle Wilson, and Mathieu Perrault.

    Current Caps Karl Alzner, Jay Beagle, and John Carlson joined Current Former Cap And Current Flyer Michal Neuvirth. So those are some names that featured prominently in the Flyers-Capitals series this year, but those three combined for just 3 goals and 6 assists in the 2009 Bears playoff run.

    2009-10 Hershey Bears

    Who knew that the Bears had a little dynasty going in the AHL? This roster was, predictably, similar to the previous year's. However, the Alzner/Beagle/Carlson trio became a little more important for the team and youngster Braden Holtby made his first appearance for the organization.

    2010-11 Binghamton Senators

    Quick shoutout to Upstate New York here, sort of a hockey hotbed, no big deal.

    Here's all you need to know about this B-Sens translating to NHL success for the O-Sens: the 2007-2011 section on the Ottawa Senators is titled "A team in decline" and the 2011-Present section is titled "Rebuilding."

    So, overall, I'd say things haven't been great in Ottawa after this minor league championship.

    2011-12 Norfolk Admirals

    Let's get back to some teams/players who have had some recent success in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The Admirals were associated with the Lightning up until this Calder Cup win, and have been associated with the Anaheim Ducks since the summer following the championship. The team moved West and is now called the San Diego Gulls.

    This 2011-12 team, because it was the Tampa farm team at the time, is comprised primarily of guys who were in the Lightning system. And there are some really big names, most notably Tyler Johnson, Ondrej Palat, Alex Killorn, and Radko Gudas (kinda kidding on him but not really). That's two thirds of The Triplets, another top-six player, and a defenseman that they eventually traded for a top-four defenseman.

    This is the best example so far of teams bringing the core of their AHL roster up to the NHL level. Obviously the whole team isn't going to graduate to the big club, but a few key pieces can be the difference between an early exit and a deep run.

    2012-13 Grand Rapids Griffins

    Hey, look at that, another good example!

    The Griffins are the minor league affiliate of the Detroit Red Wings, and this Calder team included current Wings Nyquist, Tatar, Jurco, Andersson, Glendening, Dekeyser, and Mrazek.

    Again, following the previous season's Admirals, it's guys who contribute to the big club but aren't superstars. If you can plug them into a solid established core like the Lightning or Red Wings, you can have some success. If you put them with Erik Karlsson and nobody else, that's a recipe for disaster.

    2013-14 Texas Stars

    These Stars, of course, are the farm team of the Dallas Stars. This was the first season that the NHL Stars really had any postseason success, and they did it with contributions from Former AHL Stars Curtis McKenzie, Colton Sceviour, Brett Ritchie, Justin Dowling, Brendan Ranford, Jamie Oleksiak, and Radek Faksa.

    As the NHL Stars, led by Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin, continue to improve and develop the ability to compete in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, you'll likely see more of these names become more mainstream. And, like the Admirals and Griffins, it's complementary pieces that will play alongside the superstar-caliber players.

    2014-15 Manchester Monarchs and 2015-16 Lake Erie Monsters

    The Kings (the Monarchs' NHL affiliate) and Blue Jackets (same for the Monsters) did not make a ton of noise this postseason, as one got knocked out in the first round and the other was in the lottery. Only time will tell if the boys from the Calder Cup championship teams will ever serve the same purpose on a Stanley Cup championship team.

    I went over the Monsters in detail above, and I'll just throw the Monarchs' big guns here so I can eventually say I Told You So when Drew Doughty's Kings win another cup:

    • Forwards: Jordan Weal, Mike Mersch, Nick Shore, Nic Dowd, Zach O'Brien, Justin Auger, Adrian Kempe
    • Defensemen: Colin Miller, Andrew Bodnarchuk, Vincent LoVerde, Kevin Gravel, Derek Forbort
    • Goalies: Jean-Francois Berube, Patrik Bartosak
    This post essentially took up my whole afternoon at work today, and I'm glad I went back through these teams. The end result is really just proof of some basic logic. The core of a great NHL team will be uber-talented players who have been the best player on every team they've ever played on. If that core is complemented by younger players who have had recent success in a slightly lesser league, that's probably a recipe for success. On the flip side, if you try to use an AHL team as your NHL team, you're probably going to end up in a pretty shitty spot. But if you maximize the capabilities of your entire system, you should be able to rotate generations of players through and see continued success*. 

    *Until you run into a hot goalie, because then you're fucked and there's nothing you can do to avoid it or prevent it. 

    I Need To Vent About Last Night's Game Of Thrones

    I don't blog about it as much as I do the Flyers (or other sports- and betting-related things), but Game of Thrones is one of my favorite things in the world. I consume a TON of #content online during the week, and I pride myself on being pretty knowledgeable about most fan theories.

    And I have to say I was really disappointed by the events (or lack thereof) of last night's eighth episode of season six, "No One."

    The Clegane Brothers

    It started off so hot. There were rumbling of a possible Clegane-versus-Clegane showdown in Cersei Lannister's trial by combat. They re-introduced the Hound and gave him a reasonable plot path to return to King's Landing and fight for the faith. They showed Sandor (via axe) and Gregor (with his hands) really brutalize some fools.

    The Hype train, as the internet calls it, was full steam ahead for #Cleganebowl.

    And then, King Tommen The Bitchass ruined it. He banned trials by combat, basically sentencing his mother and brother-in-law to death. I don't care about Cersei and Loras dying, but it means Cleganebowl is off the table until Margaery shows him her boobs and tells him to fix this.

    Arya Stark

    I just want to reiterate what happened to Arya in the past two episodes. She got slashed once and stabbed six times in the abdomen, fell off a bridge, wandered the streets with her guts leaking out of her, and drank the GOT version of morphine. And then this hurt/injured, doped-up twelve year old is capable of running through the streets and KILLING A HIGHLY-TRAINED ASSASSIN.

    There was no twist about the abdomen wounds. There was no twist involving Jaqen H'ghar. There was no reveal of anything Arya had learned. She just miraculously became a better fighter than someone who has been beating the shit out of her every episode for like a year.

    It makes no sense, and in an episode featuring a goddamn dragon, this was the most ridiculous and unbelievable storyline.

    Lady Stoneheart

    If you just watch the show and don't read the books or the theories online, you can skip this part.

    I'm less mad about this than the Cleganebowl and Arya sections because I think there's a pretty good chance we'll finally see LSH as the Hound/Brotherhood story develops. But how badass would it have been to end the episode with Arya announcing her plan to return home followed by LSH hanging those Brotherhood scumbags? Roll credits, and then show us the preview of the other half of the Stark family in battle next week.

    Aegon VI Targaryen

    I'm not mad about this at all (but I will be if it doesn't end up happening). Like Lady Stoneheart, Aegon6 is featured in the books but hasn't made an appearance - or even been mentioned - in the show.

    Introducing another Targaryen would serve two purposes: (1) book readers will go nuts (2) it gives Dany a reason to finally get her shit together and go to Westeros.

    My theory kind of developed out of thin air last night, but it's based on four things:

    • Most sports books have Aegon6 as the third favorite to sit on the Iron Throne at the end of the series, behind only Dany and Jon Snow
    • The showrunners are making a habit of indulging fan theories this season
    • Varys is leaving to go on a secret mission somewhere
    • Qyburn investigated a rumor for Cersei and found it to be "much more" than a rumor
    Now, the Qyburn thing is probably The Mad King's stores of Wildfire throughout the city. But, like the Brotherhood making an appearance opens the door for Lady Stoneheart, this Varys quest opens the door for the show to finally introduce Aegon. It probably won't be until episode ten (because episode nine will likely be a full-episode battle), but here's hoping we get left with a new Targaryen as the season-ending cliffhanger. 

    Thursday, June 9, 2016

    Ghost Is Good, MacDonald Is Bad: A Statistical Representation

    We need to talk about this chart that Sportsnet's Dimitri Filipovic created yesterday:
    It's the entry/exit rates for all the defensemen in the playoffs this year. The quadrants would be titled something like this:

    • Top right: Good at defending entries and Good at exiting with control
    • Bottom right: Good at defending entries but Bad at exiting with control
    • Top left: Bad at defending entries but Good at exiting with control
    • Bottom left: Bad at defending entries and Bad at exiting with control
    So, ideally, you want guys who skew toward the top-right of the graph. Like, for example, The Best Defenseman In The NHL This Postseason In Terms Of Neutral Zone Play Shayne Gostisbehere. Now, the 6-game sample size and the lack of penalty killing against the Caps is certainly helping Ghost, but there's no denying that zone entries and exits are a strong point of his name. Where is 29 year old Artemi Panarin on this graph? Nowhere? Not even good enough to qualify for the postseason statistics measured?

    The other two guys I want to talk about are the guys who statistically are poor at exiting with possession. Radko Gudas, for what it's worth, is great at denying entries. He fits the description of exactly what you expect as a big, mean, physical defenseman. Andrew MacDonald, on the other hand, played with The Best Defenseman In The NHL This Postseason In Terms Of Neutral Zone Play and still managed to finish dead last in the whole league in overall neutral zone play. 

    It's cool to look at this year's Flyers in the context of their roster having three of the four archetypal defensemen. The fourth, for what it's worth, is Anaheim's Cam Fowler, who exits with possession at a Gostisbeherian rate but allows controlled entries nearly as much as MacDonald. 

    Wednesday, June 8, 2016

    Can We Bring JVR Back To Philly?

    I mean the short answer is probably definitely not. But I saw this tweet from PSG today:
    ..and my brain immediately framed it in a Flyers context.

    The Milan Lucic Trade

    Before last summer's entry draft, the Bruins moved one of their franchise cornerstones to LA in their biggest move of a busy summer.
    Bruins received: pick #13, goalie Martin Jones, defenseman Colin Miller
    Los Angeles received: forward Milan Lucic (Boston retained 45% of his salary)
    I suppose the logic made sense on both sides. The Kings were set in goal and didn't really need an above-average backup. They also didn't really need Miller for their supposed Cup run, so they turned a prospect and a pick into one of the best power forwards in the league. Visions of a big, mean team probably danced in Kings GM Dean Lombardi's head (though, in doing some internet comment section research, lots of fans weren't exactly thrilled).

    On the Bruins side of things, they turned the final year of Lucic's 3 year/$18 million deal into a backup goalie and two prospects. It would have made more sense if they committed to the rebuild and moved some more older players (and hadn't given away Dougie Hamilton and Tyler Seguin in the previous year), but the logic makes sense. They could have ended up with a Rask-Jones tandem in goal, a blueline prospect that was borderline NHL-ready, and a trio of first round picks.

    Well, they traded Jones three days later (for the 29th or 30th pick in this year's draft), used their three picks on players who have made approximately zero noise in the past year, and Miller isn't good enough to rescue their back end from their $13.7 million commitment to Chara, Seidenberg, McQuaid, and Miller (plus Torey Krug's pending new deal). The Bruins missed the playoffs and the window is just open enough for them to not completely rebuild.

    James van Riemsdyk

    There are three main differences between Lucic in 2015 and JVR in 2016:

    • Lucic was a bit more expensive on a per-year basis, with a $6 million cap hit compared to van Riemsdyk's $4.25 million
    • Lucic's contract expired the summer after the trade, whereas JVR is locked into his deal for two more years
    • Lucic played 81 games in 2014-15. JVR played just 40 last year before he fractured his foot
    So, in Typical Leafs Fan fashion, Leafs Fans are going to overvalue JVR and expect a larger return than the Lucic deal for a player who:
    • is the same age
    • is coming off a season where he fractured his foot and missed half of his games
    • generated similar or worse numbers in the following categories: Corsi, Fenwick, Expected Goals For, Expected Goals Against, Actual Goals For, Actual Goals Against, Goals For Per 60, Goals Against Per 60
    • has played half the playoff games and has generated a third of the playoff points
    • will not have any of his salary retained because the Toronto front office is against that
    Final Verdict

    I have changed my mind. I don't want JVR, because his perceived value in Toronto seems to be WAY higher than his actual value anywhere (Philadelphia included, and you know how much we love Former Flyers and Power Forwards). 

    Examining How The Euro2016 Betting Odds Have Shifted

    I first looked at Bovada's odds for winning, advancing, and scoring goals a week ago yesterday. After lots of research (maybe not "lots" but you know how I do things), here is the bet slip I decided on as of May 31st:

    • France to win the tournament +325
    • Parlay France and Germany to win their groups -135
    • Top tournament goalscorer:
      • Cristiano Ronaldo, Portugal +800
      • Graziano Pelle, Italy +3300
      • Danny Welbeck, England +5000
      • Thomas Muller, Germany +700
      • Paco Alcacer, Spain +2500
    As the tournament kickoff date approaches, I wanted to see how the betting landscape had shifted based on the bets people were placing. Here's the biggest changes:

    To Win The Tournament

    Biggest winner: France (+325 to +300)

    The French had been tied with the Germans at +325 co-favorites, but they've taken enough action to push the lines to +300/+450. I don't think my blog analysis had anything to do with the lines moving that much, but I do think my logic was the cause of the shift. 

    Biggest loser: Italy (+1400 to +1600)

    Not only did Italy's odds become a little longer, but Portugal moving from +2000 to +1600 means the Italians and Portugese are now tied. My analysis of that: neither of these teams has a chance of winning. 

    Top Tournament Goal Scorer

    Biggest winners: 

    • Alvaro Morata, Spain (+2000 to +1800)
    • Mario Gomez, Germany (+3300 to +2500)
    • Jamie Vardy, England (+3300 to +2800)
    • Mario Mandzukic, Croatia (+3300 to +2800)

    There isn't a clear-cut winner, because the board is still topped by Muller, Ronaldo, Griezmann, and then the Giroud/Lewandoski/Kane trio. But Morata and Gomez made fairly significant moves, and those two are certainly worth a look if you're betting France and looking to hedge with the Top Goalscorer prop. 

    Biggest losers: 

    • Daniel Sturridge, England (+4000 to +5000)
    • Andre Schurrle, Germany (+5000 to +8000)
    • David Silva, Spain (+5000 to +8000)
    • Christian Benteke, Belgium (+5000 to +8000)
    • Pedro, Spain (+5000 to +10000)
    • People who bet on players who are not actually going to play like Paco Alcacer and Danny Welbeck
    Nobody was a bigger loser than the idiot who told people to bet on Alcacer and Welbeck as decent long shots before we got confirmation that they were participating in the tournament. But Pedro was close, because for some reason he took the standard 5000-to-8000 drop and decided to fall even further down the board to 100/1. 

    To Win Groups A and C

    France and Germany were the runaway favorites in their groups, at -325 and -300 respectively, so we parlayed them at -135. 

    Those three figures are now -350, -300, and -141. 

    The Revised Bet Slip

    France to win the tournament +300

    Parlay France and Germany to win their groups -141

    Top tournament goalscorer
    • Ronaldo, Portugal +800
    • Pelle, Italy +3300
    • Gomez, Germany +2500
    • Morata, Spain +1800