The first round of the NHL Draft is tonight, and it should be just as exciting and well-produced as last night's NBA Draft because hockey is totally a Big Four Mainstream Sport in the United States. And, like all big sports, we're going to try to use our limited knowledge to make some money off of it. Bovada has a nice selection of draft prop bets available, if you're into that sort of thing.
For reference on what people smarter than me seem to think, I LOVE Platinum Seat Ghosts' Aggregate Rankings.
Defensemen Drafted In The First Round - Over/Under 8.5
The locks are Juolevi, Sergachyov, Chychrun, Bean, Fabbro, and McAvoy. Those six will all go in the first twenty picks. Then it gets a little dicey, because the next batch is a definite step down from Fabbro/McAvoy. Names like Stanley, Clague, Cholowski, Hajek, Johanson, Fox, Girard, and Deneen have all been projected - by someone or another - to go in the first round. But it's tough to say that three of them will, and I think there is enough forward depth in this draft that it won't get to nine.
Verdict: Under 8.5
Goalies Drafted In The First Round - Over/Under 0.5
In all of the projections that PSG uses to make his aggregate rankings, only two people had a goalie going in the first round. Carter Hart and Jonas Gustavsson are the only two realistic options, and their aggregate rankings are 39 and 44 overall.
What seals the deal for me is the moneyline. Over pays +200 and Under pays -300. It's not happening.
Verdict: Under 0.5
Players Drafted From The CHL (16.5), OHL (10), QMJHL (3.5), and WHL (2.5) In The First Round
The easiest way to do this is go league-by-league and then add them all up.
OHL (Over/Under 10)
Locks: Tkachuk, Juolevi, Nylander, Brown, Sergachyov, Chychrun, McLeod, Jones, DeBrincat, Stanley
Maybes: Boris Katchouk (aggregate 28, best 22), Jordan Kyrou (aggregate 32, best 28), Cluff Pu (aggregate 48, lowest 18)
Verdict: I think it very well may end up being an even ten players, but I like the low-risk opportunity. Over 10
QMJHL (Over/Under 3.5)
Locks: Dubois, Gauthier
Maybes: Pascal Laberge (aggregate 27, best 23), Vitaly Abramov (aggregate 30, best 21), Samuel Girard (aggregate 46, best 23)
Verdict: I think we're good for at least four. Over 3.5's a good play
WHL (Over/Under 2.5)
Locks: Bean, Howden
Maybes: Kale Clague (aggregate 31, best 22), Tyler Benson (aggregate 34, best 18), Libor Hajek (aggregate 35, best 26), Carter Hart (aggregate 39, best 24)
Verdict: Clague and/or Benson are probably good, so that'll take us through. Over 2.5
CHL (Over/Under 16.5)
And now we just add it all up. The locks are 10 from the OHL, 2 from the Q, and 2 from the WHL. If you trust my super-uninformed analysis, I'm thinking a pair of the maybes from each of the Q and WHL are getting drafted.
Verdict: Over 16.5
Players From The USHL/USDP/NCAA (Over/Under 6)
Locks: Keller, McAvoy, Bellows, Kunin, Tufte
Maybes: Tage Thompson (aggregate 29, best 24), Adam Fox (aggregate 45, best 27)
Verdict: I feel the opposite here than I did about the OHL. I think best-case scenario is six, and I could see it only being five. It's not worth the risk for me either way.
Bet Slip
Under 8.5 defensemen
Under 0.5 goalies
Over 10 from the OHL
Over 3.5 from the QMJHL
Over 2.5 from the WHL
Over 16.5 from the CHL
Showing posts with label draft. Show all posts
Showing posts with label draft. Show all posts
Friday, June 24, 2016
Tuesday, April 26, 2016
Flyers Offseason Wish List: Draft Picks
In my initial offseason preview post, I calculated that I expect the Flyers to have between $3-4 million available for two forward spots if the salary cap escalator is not used. That number jumps to between $5-7 million if the escalator is used, which would obviously make dreaming about filling out the roster much easier. But the sense I get from my sources (aka the internet) that it seems like they're going to go with the lower cap number.
So we don't have a ton of room to play with, and we certainly can't go out and afford someone like Steven Stamkos or Kyle Okposo with just $3 million in cap space. How can we add top-end talent to the team without spending out of the ass?
Well, the draft of course.
The draft lottery will be aired this Saturday (April 30th), and from that point on we will know the draft order for actual draft, which happens in June.
By sneaking into the playoffs, the Flyers lost their 1% chance at moving up into the top four on their own, but there's always the possibility that they could trade up from the mid-teens. I previewed a bunch of players that should be available into the teens, but none of them will be immediate impact type players like the top 5-6 prospects.
Here are the odds to win the first pick, which are also tied directly to the odds to land a top-four pick:
One huge note: plan on whoever wins the first pick to keep that pick and take Auston Matthews. I don't think I'm breaking any news there, but it would probably be almost impossible to pry him out ofToronto Edmonton Vancouver Canada.
I appreciate PSG's aggregate rankings for the rest of the field, and I utilize them more than any individual ranking.
Matthews is the number one on literally everyone's board. Laine is second, Puljujarvi is third, and Tkachuk is fourth. There is some debate about the Nylander/Dubois/Chychrun band, and then it kind of tails off from there.
What these 11 players have in common is they're all out of reach for the Flyers with their current pick. Moving into the top four would be great, but the top eight is really the cream of the crop in this draft.
And, actually, as I look at these names along with the various scouting reports online, the only two sure-thing contributors are Matthews and Laine.
I don't want the Flyers to give up as much as it would take to steal one of those two, and so I am officially OUT on Hextall using the draft to plug the forward holes on the 2016-17 Flyers' roster. Let's take a mid-round guy in the first, or maybe use some of the later picks that we have to move up a few spots to steal someone that Hexy likes, and then let's stash that guy in the minors for a year or two and let him develop.
So we don't have a ton of room to play with, and we certainly can't go out and afford someone like Steven Stamkos or Kyle Okposo with just $3 million in cap space. How can we add top-end talent to the team without spending out of the ass?
Well, the draft of course.
The draft lottery will be aired this Saturday (April 30th), and from that point on we will know the draft order for actual draft, which happens in June.
By sneaking into the playoffs, the Flyers lost their 1% chance at moving up into the top four on their own, but there's always the possibility that they could trade up from the mid-teens. I previewed a bunch of players that should be available into the teens, but none of them will be immediate impact type players like the top 5-6 prospects.
Here are the odds to win the first pick, which are also tied directly to the odds to land a top-four pick:
One huge note: plan on whoever wins the first pick to keep that pick and take Auston Matthews. I don't think I'm breaking any news there, but it would probably be almost impossible to pry him out of
I appreciate PSG's aggregate rankings for the rest of the field, and I utilize them more than any individual ranking.
Matthews is the number one on literally everyone's board. Laine is second, Puljujarvi is third, and Tkachuk is fourth. There is some debate about the Nylander/Dubois/Chychrun band, and then it kind of tails off from there.
What these 11 players have in common is they're all out of reach for the Flyers with their current pick. Moving into the top four would be great, but the top eight is really the cream of the crop in this draft.
And, actually, as I look at these names along with the various scouting reports online, the only two sure-thing contributors are Matthews and Laine.
I don't want the Flyers to give up as much as it would take to steal one of those two, and so I am officially OUT on Hextall using the draft to plug the forward holes on the 2016-17 Flyers' roster. Let's take a mid-round guy in the first, or maybe use some of the later picks that we have to move up a few spots to steal someone that Hexy likes, and then let's stash that guy in the minors for a year or two and let him develop.
Wednesday, February 17, 2016
These NHL Prospects Will Be The Reward For This Year's Sadness
Sadness, in an NHL context, is when you miss the playoffs and also miss out on a top draft pick. My Twitter friend Micah takes a variety of statistical figures into account to generate his daily Sadness Index projection. Here's where that stands as of today:
The top five picks, in some order, will be Auston Matthews, Patrik Laine, Jesse Puljuvarvi, Matthew Tkachuk, and one of defensemen Olli Juolevi or Jakob Chychrun.
Let's take a look at the guys that are going to likely fall just outside the top five, because it seems like there's a pretty good chance the Flyers will end up drafting one of them. I use Eliteprospects for stuff like this because they compile several different scouting sites in one place.
Juolevi or Chychrun, whichever is not drafted fifth
Both of these defensemen project to be solid NHL talents, and no fan base would be upset to land either of them. They may not be a franchise-changer like Matthews, but they should both be blueline contributors for the better part of a decade.
Michael McLeod, Center
Alex Nylander, Winger
Currently teammates in Mississauga, they have been tearing up the OHL. McLeod is described as a "power center", which is an asset for any NHL team to be able to ice on any of its four lines.
Nylander is probably best known for being the younger brother of Toronto Maple Leafs prospect William Nylander, but the younger Nylander lit up the World Juniors for 9 points in 7 games.
Pierre-Luc Dubois, Winger
Tyson Jost, Center/Winger
Julien Gauthier, Winger
Let me throw some more Canadians at you, because there are obviously a lot of them available because hockey. These three (plus McLeod) are Canada's four best forward prospects. Eliteprospects has quite a bit of info for each, and it's easiest to summarize it like this:
Clayton Keller, Center
Mikhail Sergachyov, Defenseman
Obviously, 16 teams make the playoffs. Micah's cutoff for missing out on "a top draft pick" is anyone lower than fifth. So, there are going to end up being 9 teams that are #sad at the end of the year. Yet, somehow, 11 teams have a better-than-fifty-percent chance of ending up in one of those spots. Move past that.Furthermore, those attuned to Sadness should Continue to be Sad. pic.twitter.com/YnbNxqrwi9— Micah Blake McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath) February 17, 2016
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| Puljujarvi and Laine at the World Junior Championships |
Let's take a look at the guys that are going to likely fall just outside the top five, because it seems like there's a pretty good chance the Flyers will end up drafting one of them. I use Eliteprospects for stuff like this because they compile several different scouting sites in one place.
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| Canadian defenseman Jakob Chychrun |
Both of these defensemen project to be solid NHL talents, and no fan base would be upset to land either of them. They may not be a franchise-changer like Matthews, but they should both be blueline contributors for the better part of a decade.
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| Maple Leafs prospect William Nylander, who is substantially more attractive than his younger brother |
Alex Nylander, Winger
Currently teammates in Mississauga, they have been tearing up the OHL. McLeod is described as a "power center", which is an asset for any NHL team to be able to ice on any of its four lines.
Nylander is probably best known for being the younger brother of Toronto Maple Leafs prospect William Nylander, but the younger Nylander lit up the World Juniors for 9 points in 7 games.
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| Future Philadelphia Flyer Julien Gauthier |
Tyson Jost, Center/Winger
Julien Gauthier, Winger
Let me throw some more Canadians at you, because there are obviously a lot of them available because hockey. These three (plus McLeod) are Canada's four best forward prospects. Eliteprospects has quite a bit of info for each, and it's easiest to summarize it like this:
- Dubois has an unreal hockey sense and he's the prototypical "better than his physical attributes" kind of hockey player
- Jost is an incredible playmaker and I keep seeing the word "crafty" used to describe him. I see shades of Travis Konecny in his game
- Gauthier is a power forward, but he also has a surprising amount of skill with the puck on his stick. He might end up being the best forward in this draft behind Matthews and The Fins
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| Future Philadelphia Flyer Max Jones |
Max Jones, Winger
Kieffer Bellows, Center/Winger
Luke Kunin, Center
Alex DeBrincat, Center
There is a good chance that seven American forwards get drafted in the first round this summer. The two big names (Matthews and Tkachuk) should go within the first four picks, and it would be a mild upset if any of these five made it to the second round.
Jones and Bellows are both described as "power forwards" with puck skills that match their projected draft positions. They both also play with pretty high-quality teammates; Jones is a London Knight with Tkachuk, Juolevi, Coyotes prospect Christian Dvorak, Maple Leafs prospect Mitch Marner, Bellows is a BU Terrier along with Ahti Oksanen and Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson, who played for Finland and Sweden respectively in the World Juniors.
Keller is, almost across the board, projected higher than Jones or Bellows. But I can't find any information on him. He's a center, he's in the USHL development league, he's going to BU next season with Bellows, and he's on the smaller side at 5'10/170. Is he a playmaker or a scorer or an energy guy? I have no fucking clue. About the best I can find is this SB Nation story that talks about his "keen eye, soft hands, and creative mindset." He sounds kind of like Christian Grey, to be quite honest.
Kunin, who plays at the University of Wisconsin, is decidedly a step below Keller/Jones/Bellows. But anyone who is a first-round talent should eventually turn into a top-nine forward unless something goes wrong. Luke (who apparently also goes by Lane, idk) has unquestionable skills in the offensive zone, but will have to develop the other 2/3 of his game to be a real elite player.
I hate DeBrincat. He cheapshotted Travis Konecny in the World Juniors and he looked like crap every other time I watched him play. He has 179 points in 113 games between last season and this season, so obviously he's not bad, but he's just such a little shit that I can't see him being a player I ever actively root for. To be honest, I hope he falls to New Jersey (they're currently in spot 18, he's projected in the 20-24 range), He'd be a great Devil in that he's a son of a bitch and I hate him.
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| Future Flyers defensemen Jake Bean and Travis Sanheim |
Charlie McAvoy, Defenseman
Dante Fabbro, Defenseman
Jake Bean, Defenseman
How about we add some more blueliners into our pool? This group is one Russian, one American, and two Canadians. Serge plays in the OHL, Bean plays in the WHL, and McAvoy and Fabbro both play in college in the US. Suck on that, Canada.
Sergachyov is someone I haven't read much about, but he's a Russian and their style of play generates high-risk, high-event defensemen. His physical talent and his head seem to be able to justify his risk-taking, but I keep thinking about Evgeny Medvedev's defensive zone turnovers and I worry about how his game would translate to the NHL.
McAvoy currently plays for Boston University, and Fabbro will join him on Commonwealth Ave next year. As is the case with most defensive prospects, they are vaguely described as good in their own zone with offensive upside. That doesn't mean a whole lot, but playing together in one of the country's premier college programs should certainly benefit them both.
Jake Bean probably doesn't quite belong in this post. He's probably going to get drafted by a team that made the playoffs, which should suit him that much better. I see his name quite a bit because he plays with Flyers prospects Travis Sanheim and Radel Fazleev, and by all accounts Bean is just a shade below Sanheim for the Calgary Hitmen. Someone like Dubois or Gauthier or Jones would make a lot more sense for the Flyers, but I wouldn't be mad at all if Hextall decided to throw Beaner into the prospect pool of defensemen in Philly.
Jake Bean, Defenseman
How about we add some more blueliners into our pool? This group is one Russian, one American, and two Canadians. Serge plays in the OHL, Bean plays in the WHL, and McAvoy and Fabbro both play in college in the US. Suck on that, Canada.
Sergachyov is someone I haven't read much about, but he's a Russian and their style of play generates high-risk, high-event defensemen. His physical talent and his head seem to be able to justify his risk-taking, but I keep thinking about Evgeny Medvedev's defensive zone turnovers and I worry about how his game would translate to the NHL.
McAvoy currently plays for Boston University, and Fabbro will join him on Commonwealth Ave next year. As is the case with most defensive prospects, they are vaguely described as good in their own zone with offensive upside. That doesn't mean a whole lot, but playing together in one of the country's premier college programs should certainly benefit them both.
Jake Bean probably doesn't quite belong in this post. He's probably going to get drafted by a team that made the playoffs, which should suit him that much better. I see his name quite a bit because he plays with Flyers prospects Travis Sanheim and Radel Fazleev, and by all accounts Bean is just a shade below Sanheim for the Calgary Hitmen. Someone like Dubois or Gauthier or Jones would make a lot more sense for the Flyers, but I wouldn't be mad at all if Hextall decided to throw Beaner into the prospect pool of defensemen in Philly.
Tuesday, December 29, 2015
Let's Re-Do The 2010 NHL Draft
I'm bored at work. It's super slow, the office shouldn't even be open, and I need to entertain myself somehow. And since I can't reasonably just spend the next 6 hours in the bathroom, let's rewind tghe calendar and re-do the top ten (or so) pick from an old NHL draft.
Today we are going back to Los Angeles in June 2010. These guys are all now firmly beyond their rookie deals, and there are quite a few impact players. As you might imagine, not all of them were selected in the early first round.
So, here we go. Let's re-order them.
1. Edmonton Oilers
This was such an Oilers pick. It will become more and more apparent as we re-draft everyone that they REALLY fucked this pick up. Again. Just like always. That's going to be the common theme of these re-drafts from the last decade or so. The Oilers just suck.
The Pick: Tyler Seguin. You could make an argument that one other person should go first overall, but you would be wrong.
2. Boston Bruins
The Bruins, of course, turned this pick into Loui Eriksson and some scrubs when they traded Seguin to Dallas. I hope that somebody eventually makes a really good documentary about that whole situation, because Boston could reasonably have a forward core of Seguin-Bergeron-Krejci-Marchand-Lucic-Rinaldo.
The Pick: Vladimir Tarasenko. Christ, that'd be terrifying.
3. Florida Panthers
I'm not going to call Erik Gudbranson a bust because he's still in the league, but there are at least a dozen players (probably more like two or three dozen) that should probably have gone before him. Luckily for both Panthers fans in the world, they made up for it four years later by drafting Aaron Ekblad, who immediately became their best defenseman.
The Pick: Justin Faulk. There are some forwards that might be arguable here, but the Panthers wanted a defenseman and they picked the wrong one. It wasn't just Florida that fucked up, though - Faulk made it all the way to #37, behind D-men like Dylan McIlrath, Derek Forbort, and Alex Petrovic (no joke, the Panthers had 5 picks where they could have taken Faulk, and they used 2 of them on defensemen). Could you imagine if they were icing a top pair of Ekblad and Faulk? Maybe we would even take them seriously. Be better, Florida.
4. Columbus Blue Jackets
I think I'm going to be an asshole here.
The Pick: Ryan Johansen. I don't think he's the problem, and I think they're going to regret trading him as much as Boston regrets trading Seguin.
5. New York Islanders
Nino Niederreiter wasn't necessarily a bad pick because he contributes today, but let's pick knits.
The Pick: Jeff Skinner. The Youngest All-Star Ever (remember to vote for Shayne or Claude here). The thought of him on this year's team (and the core that's going to be there for the next 3-5 years) legitimately has me shaking in my boots.
6. Tampa Bay Lightning
Brett Connolly was eventually traded for a pair of 2nd Round Picks. You'd like to see a team do better than that with the sixth overall pick. Florida, again showing that they have no business being involved with hockey.
The Pick: Cam Fowler. How about a top-pairing (or at the very least top-four) defenseman?
7. Carolina Hurricanes
Hey guys, sorry we took away your stud rookie and the potential future of your franchise. How can we make it up to you?
The Pick: Nick Bjugstad? Emersen Etem? Brock Nelson? Tyler Toffoli? Christ, that's a pretty significant dropoff.
8. Atlanta Thrashers/Winnipeg Jets
There were three Russians taken in the first round. Tarasenko should have been the first, and he was not. Evgeny Kuznetsov (great read here) should have been the second, and he also was not. The guy that bumped them down was Alexander Burmistrov, who spent some time in the AHL, some time in the KHL, and now finally plays for the team that (kind of) drafted him.
The Pick: Kuznetsov. Be better, teams from the Southeast United States.
Today we are going back to Los Angeles in June 2010. These guys are all now firmly beyond their rookie deals, and there are quite a few impact players. As you might imagine, not all of them were selected in the early first round.
So, here we go. Let's re-order them.
1. Edmonton Oilers
This was such an Oilers pick. It will become more and more apparent as we re-draft everyone that they REALLY fucked this pick up. Again. Just like always. That's going to be the common theme of these re-drafts from the last decade or so. The Oilers just suck.
The Pick: Tyler Seguin. You could make an argument that one other person should go first overall, but you would be wrong.
2. Boston Bruins
The Bruins, of course, turned this pick into Loui Eriksson and some scrubs when they traded Seguin to Dallas. I hope that somebody eventually makes a really good documentary about that whole situation, because Boston could reasonably have a forward core of Seguin-Bergeron-Krejci-Marchand-Lucic-Rinaldo.
The Pick: Vladimir Tarasenko. Christ, that'd be terrifying.
3. Florida Panthers
I'm not going to call Erik Gudbranson a bust because he's still in the league, but there are at least a dozen players (probably more like two or three dozen) that should probably have gone before him. Luckily for both Panthers fans in the world, they made up for it four years later by drafting Aaron Ekblad, who immediately became their best defenseman.
The Pick: Justin Faulk. There are some forwards that might be arguable here, but the Panthers wanted a defenseman and they picked the wrong one. It wasn't just Florida that fucked up, though - Faulk made it all the way to #37, behind D-men like Dylan McIlrath, Derek Forbort, and Alex Petrovic (no joke, the Panthers had 5 picks where they could have taken Faulk, and they used 2 of them on defensemen). Could you imagine if they were icing a top pair of Ekblad and Faulk? Maybe we would even take them seriously. Be better, Florida.
4. Columbus Blue Jackets
I think I'm going to be an asshole here.
The Pick: Ryan Johansen. I don't think he's the problem, and I think they're going to regret trading him as much as Boston regrets trading Seguin.
5. New York Islanders
Nino Niederreiter wasn't necessarily a bad pick because he contributes today, but let's pick knits.
The Pick: Jeff Skinner. The Youngest All-Star Ever (remember to vote for Shayne or Claude here). The thought of him on this year's team (and the core that's going to be there for the next 3-5 years) legitimately has me shaking in my boots.
6. Tampa Bay Lightning
Brett Connolly was eventually traded for a pair of 2nd Round Picks. You'd like to see a team do better than that with the sixth overall pick. Florida, again showing that they have no business being involved with hockey.
The Pick: Cam Fowler. How about a top-pairing (or at the very least top-four) defenseman?
7. Carolina Hurricanes
Hey guys, sorry we took away your stud rookie and the potential future of your franchise. How can we make it up to you?
The Pick: Nick Bjugstad? Emersen Etem? Brock Nelson? Tyler Toffoli? Christ, that's a pretty significant dropoff.
8. Atlanta Thrashers/Winnipeg Jets
There were three Russians taken in the first round. Tarasenko should have been the first, and he was not. Evgeny Kuznetsov (great read here) should have been the second, and he also was not. The guy that bumped them down was Alexander Burmistrov, who spent some time in the AHL, some time in the KHL, and now finally plays for the team that (kind of) drafted him.
The Pick: Kuznetsov. Be better, teams from the Southeast United States.
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