Let's Bet On Big Zlatan

We've never placed a season-long soccer bet. Normally, that's something we reserve for college football (see my last post).

But this season might be different, because the most popular team in England signed the most eccentric player in the world. Zlatan Ibrahimovic will don a Manchester United kit for the first time later this month, and it will be a glorious debut.

The line on his goals for the Premier League season, however, is set at just 14.5 on Bovada. That seems really low to me, and I'm thinking we might be able to (1) make some money and (2) get even more Saturday morning enjoyment while watching one of the best teams in the world.

The line being 14.5 poses two questions:

• How many goals do ManU's strikers normally score?
• How many goals does Zlatan normally score?

Let's start with the big guy first, and then look at his new team and league.

Zlatan Ibrahimovic

I'm going to include all major competitions in the last three years because I want to be able to use as large a sample size as possible. 

2016 Euro Cup (and Qualifiers): 11 goals in 13 games

2015-16 with PSG (Ligue 1): 38 goals in 31 games

2015-16 with PSG (Champions League): 5 goals in 10 games

2014-15 with PSG (Ligue 1): 18 goals in 24 games

2014-15 with PSG (Champions League): 2 goals in 6 games

2013-14 with PSG (Ligue 1): 26 goals in 33 games

2013-14 with PSG (Champions League): 10 goals in 8 games

Overall, that's 110 goals in 125 games, or 0.88 goals per game. The EPL season is 38 matches long, meaning he'd blow past the 14.5 total before Christmas if he kept his usual pace. That's an easy bet, right?

Manchester United's Goal Scorers

It's not quite so simple when you look at Man United's stat sheet from last season:

Zlatan is probably better than all of these players, especially when it comes to pure goal scoring, but is the team capable of generating enough offense to allow him to score 15+ goals? Overall, the team scored just 46 goals in EPL play. And what's even more concerning is there wasn't a single Forward who played more than 30 games (Martial led the way with an even 30). 

So if our boy Zlatan is only playing 30 games or so, and they're only scoring 30-35 goals in those games, is he good enough to score half of them with Rooney, Martial, Mata, Rashford, and Memphis breathing down his neck? 

It's really tough to envision him matching his goal totals from France on this United squad. Perhaps, though, this disparity is rooted less in the Red Devils and more in the English league as a whole. 

Premier League Goal Scoring

Last season, in their 38 matches, PSG led Ligue 1 with 102 goals (2.68 goals per game). They were, however, a large outlier, as the next-highest-scoring team was Olympique Lyonnais with 67 (1.76 per game). In Ligue 1 as a whole, 960 goals were scored. 

Manchester City led the was in the EPL last year with 71 goals (1.87 goals per game). But between all 20 league teams, they combined for 1026.

So, excluding the dominance of PSG, England is actually more scoring-friendly. I went through the league tables for France's Ligue 1 and the English Premier League last season - here's the comparison:

Essentially, the bottom half of both leagues was the same in terms of goal-scoring. Troyes brought up the rear in France with just 28 goals for the season (0.74 per game), and Aston Villa did the same in England with 27 goals (0.71 goals per game). Those two teams are now in shittier leagues. 

The whole Over/Under 14.5 goals bet really boils down to one question - how much of PSG's offensive dominance was caused by Zlatan? He scored 38 of the 102 goals and assisted on 13 more. He shared the field with Edinson Cavani (19 goals) and Angel Di Maria (10 goals), and even young Lucas Mora (9 goals) would have ranked highly on ManU's stat sheet. 

The difference between PSG's 102 goals and United's paltry 49 was Zlatan-Cavani-ADM combining for 67 and Martial-Rooney-Mata combining for just 25. That is a HUGE difference - and my bet would be Zlatan is a big part of it. 

Questions To Ask Ourselves

• Do we want to bet on soccer and commit to watching it on weekend mornings and weekday afternoons?
• Do we like Zlatan as an athlete/character?
• Do we think that at least a third of PSG's offensive trio's output was generated or caused by Zlatan?
• Do we think Zlatan is better than Anthony Martial and/or Wayne Rooney?

The obvious answer to all of these questions in a resounding YES, so please go ahead and sign me up for Zlatan Over 14.5 EPL goals (-105). 

Is It Too Early To Start Looking At College Football Team Props?

The answer, of course, is no. There are so few sports happening right now that the biggest story on my Twitter timeline is Taylor Swift Instagramming that she's going to sue Kim Kardashian for Snapchatting a recorded phone conversation with Kanye West.

Peak Millennialism.

So let's cut the nerd social media talk and start talking about football, like men. College football season props are out on Bovada, and I'm going to give you picks for every division that matters.

Big XII

(Editor's note: the Big 12 doesn't have divisions, so they just lump everyone into one huge division and the whole thing ends in a three-way tie every season.)

Who Won Last Year: Oklahoma

Who's Favored This Year: Oklahoma -140

Some Other Teams To Consider: Oklahoma State +500, TCU +500

Ha Ha This Team Has No Chance: Kansas +25000

Bob Stoops' Sooners are the heavy favorite to repeat, primarily because they'll be returning quarterback Baker Mayfield and running back Samaja Perine. There's no reason to bet against them, just accept the moneyline wherever you can get it and count your money in December.

And oh by the way, you could add three more zeroes onto the end of that Kansas moneyline and I still wouldn't bet a dollar on it.

ACC - Atlantic

Who Won Last Year: Clemson

Who's Favored This Year: Clemson -110

Some Other Teams To Consider: Florida State +125, Louisville +600

Ha Ha This Team Has No Chance: Wake Forest and Syracuse are both +5000, which really makes me happy

As tough as it might be to bet against the defending conference champions that came within one score of being national champions, I reside in a Florida State household.

Dalvin Cook is going to be the best running back in the conference. Sean Maguire will be a solid quarterback, and if he gets beat out for the job it will be by a stud underclassman. Defensive end Marcus Walker decided to stay in school for his senior season, and he's probably going to be a first round pick next year. I love the payout of +125 and I'm all over FSU this year.

ACC - Coastal 

Who Won Last Year: North Carolina

Who's Favored This Year: Miami +150

Some Other Teams To Consider: Pitt +300, Va Tech +325, UNC +400

Ha Ha This Team Has No Chance: Virginia +4000

The Coastal division is a real crapshoot this year. Other than Duke and Virginia, every team has odds of 10/1 or shorter. That's a plus if you are a fan of a team and are going to bet them anyway, but it's a negative for us because it just means we're going to lose money.

But I told you I'd give you a bet for every division, so here's your bet for the Coastal: bet on your Atlantic team to win the whole ACC. Bingo bango.

Big Ten - East

Who Won Last Year: Michigan State

Who's Favored This Year: Ohio State +100

Some Other Teams To Consider: Michigan +125, Michigan State +600

Ha Ha This Team Has No Chance: All of the rest of the teams Rutgers +5000

This is what the Big Ten East should be. Just Ohio State/Michigan/Michigan State dominance and hatred. This is, outside of the SEC, the one division you want to make sure you have a dog in the fight.

For us, it's Michigan because the other two have to replace Joey Bosa, Ezekiel Elliot, Connor Cook, and some other NFL-bound players.

Big Ten - West

Who Won Last Year: Iowa

Who's Favored This Year: Iowa +100

Some Other Teams To Consider: Nebraska +200, Wisconsin +400, Northwestern +900 (kidding?)

Ha Ha This Team Has No Chance: Purdue +3300

In a similar sense as the ACC Coastal, this division is kind of a crapshoot. Iowa is probably going to win, but they aren't really blowing anyone away in any aspect of the game. If you like Wisconsin or Nebraska, throw some money down on a beefy line. If you like getting drunk at 11:30am on Saturdays, bet on Northwestern.

It's really whatever you prefer, but personally I am a fan of morning drinking and football so I am in on the Wildcats.

Pac-12 - North

Who Won Last Year: Stanford

Who's Favored This Year: Stanford +160

Some Other Teams To Consider: Washington +175, Oregon +300

Ha Ha This Team Has No Chance: Oregon State +5000

One quick note: Oregon State has a 0% chance of winning the divison, but they have a 100% chance of upsetting someone and throwing a wrench into that team's National Title hopes.

As far as the actual division winner, I think Stanford is overvalued based on recent success and Washington is undervalued for the same reason (or the opposite reason, depending on how you see it).

The Huskies are returning their entire offensive line and backfield, plus receiver John Ross III should be huge. Oh and their defense last year led the conference in yardage and scoring and will return 7 starters for this season.

Pac-12 - South

Who Won Last Year: USC

Who's Favored This Year: UCLA +140

Some Other Teams To Consider: USC +175, Utah +500, ASU +650

Ha Ha This Team Has No Chance: Colorado +2000

Really, this is a two-horse race between the Los Angeles teams. It comes down to who you prefer, and I'm going to make a quick and easy comparison chart for these two (sources here and here):

• Quarterback: UCLA's Josh Rosen is unquestionably more valuable than anything USC will be able to replace Cody Kessler with. 1-0 Bruins. 
• Rest of the offense: UCLA's got a three-headed running back trio, and they're apparently going to be employing a fullback and at least one tight end for most of the time. However, USC's returning their whole offensive line and they have a pair of running backs that should be as good if not better than UCLA's. 1-1, tied game. 
• Defense: UCLA has a very staunch defensive line, a less solid group of linebackers, and some brittle-boned defensive backs. USC is about the exact opposite, in that they have a fuckton of talent in the secondary and it gets less impressive as you move toward the line of scrimmage. This one is a tie, so we'll move the score to 2-2. 
• Other/intangibles: UCLA's two best players are their quarterback and defensive tackle Eddie Vanderdoes. USC's two best are a wide receiver and a cornerback. I'm taking the QB and the big man as more important, and UCLA wins this little exercise by a hair. 

SEC West

Who Won Last Year: Alabama

Who's Favored This Year: Alabama -130

Some Other Teams To Consider: LSU +225, Auburn +700, Ole Miss +1200, Texas A&M +1400, Arkansas +1400

Ha Ha This Team Has No Chance: Mississippi State +2000

While it may seem like it's a two horse race, it's the SEC West so any of these teams (or at least most of them) could end up being the best team in the country. There isn't a ton of value on 'Bama, but if you think another year of development for Leonard Fournette could bump LSU up from their 5-3 record last year, the Tigers might be the play. Really, anyone other than Bama or LSU is a long shot that you shouldn't expect much from.

For me, the questions in the passing attack make LSU really tough to pick. But Alabama has question marks at basically every position in the backfield, so I feel safer with LSU at +225 than I would with Alabama -130.

SEC East

Who Won Last Year: Florida

Who's Favored This Year: Tennessee -125

Some Other Teams To Consider: Georgia +200, Florida +450, Mizzou +1600

Ha Ha This Team Has No Chance: South Carolina, Kentucky, and Vandy are all +2500

Even though the payout for Tennessee is about the same as Alabama, I like the Vols bet much more than I like the Tide bet. Georgia doesn't scare me, Florida peaked last year, and the other three would be laughable opponents for Bama or LSU in the SEC title game. It has to be Tennessee, and even though the moneyline is a little prohibitive I like the Vols.

The Bet Slip

• Big XII: Oklahoma -140
• ACC Atlantic: Florida State +125
• ACC Coastal: No thanks, just take FSU to win the whole conference +225
• Big Ten East: Michigan +125
• Big Ten West: Northwestern +900 (kidding?)
• Pac-12 North: Washington +175
• Pac-12 South: UCLA +140
• SEC West: LSU +225
• SEC East: Tennessee -125

NHL Draft Betting Preview

The first round of the NHL Draft is tonight, and it should be just as exciting and well-produced as last night's NBA Draft because hockey is totally a Big Four Mainstream Sport in the United States. And, like all big sports, we're going to try to use our limited knowledge to make some money off of it. Bovada has a nice selection of draft prop bets available, if you're into that sort of thing.

For reference on what people smarter than me seem to think, I LOVE Platinum Seat Ghosts' Aggregate Rankings.

Defensemen Drafted In The First Round - Over/Under 8.5

The locks are Juolevi, Sergachyov, Chychrun, Bean, Fabbro, and McAvoy. Those six will all go in the first twenty picks. Then it gets a little dicey, because the next batch is a definite step down from Fabbro/McAvoy. Names like Stanley, Clague, Cholowski, Hajek, Johanson, Fox, Girard, and Deneen have all been projected - by someone or another - to go in the first round. But it's tough to say that three of them will, and I think there is enough forward depth in this draft that it won't get to nine.

Verdict: Under 8.5

Goalies Drafted In The First Round - Over/Under 0.5

In all of the projections that PSG uses to make his aggregate rankings, only two people had a goalie going in the first round. Carter Hart and Jonas Gustavsson are the only two realistic options, and their aggregate rankings are 39 and 44 overall.

What seals the deal for me is the moneyline. Over pays +200 and Under pays -300. It's not happening.

Verdict: Under 0.5

Players Drafted From The CHL (16.5), OHL (10), QMJHL (3.5), and WHL (2.5) In The First Round

The easiest way to do this is go league-by-league and then add them all up.

OHL (Over/Under 10)

Locks: Tkachuk, Juolevi, Nylander, Brown, Sergachyov, Chychrun, McLeod, Jones, DeBrincat, Stanley

Maybes: Boris Katchouk (aggregate 28, best 22), Jordan Kyrou (aggregate 32, best 28), Cluff Pu (aggregate 48, lowest 18)

Verdict: I think it very well may end up being an even ten players, but I like the low-risk opportunity. Over 10

QMJHL (Over/Under 3.5)

Locks: Dubois, Gauthier

Maybes: Pascal Laberge (aggregate 27, best 23), Vitaly Abramov (aggregate 30, best 21), Samuel Girard (aggregate 46, best 23)

Verdict: I think we're good for at least four. Over 3.5's a good play

WHL (Over/Under 2.5)

Locks: Bean, Howden

Maybes: Kale Clague (aggregate 31, best 22), Tyler Benson (aggregate 34, best 18), Libor Hajek (aggregate 35, best 26), Carter Hart (aggregate 39, best 24)

Verdict: Clague and/or Benson are probably good, so that'll take us through. Over 2.5

CHL (Over/Under 16.5)

And now we just add it all up. The locks are 10 from the OHL, 2 from the Q, and 2 from the WHL. If you trust my super-uninformed analysis, I'm thinking a pair of the maybes from each of the Q and WHL are getting drafted.

Verdict: Over 16.5

Players From The USHL/USDP/NCAA (Over/Under 6)

Locks: Keller, McAvoy, Bellows, Kunin, Tufte

Maybes: Tage Thompson (aggregate 29, best 24), Adam Fox (aggregate 45, best 27)

Verdict: I feel the opposite here than I did about the OHL. I think best-case scenario is six, and I could see it only being five. It's not worth the risk for me either way.

Bet Slip

Under 8.5 defensemen
Under 0.5 goalies
Over 10 from the OHL
Over 3.5 from the QMJHL
Over 2.5 from the WHL
Over 16.5 from the CHL

NHL Awards Preview

Tonight is the night! Everyone's favorite Bluth brother (Gob, obviously) is hosting the NHL Awards Live from New NHL Team Haver Las Vegas. It's going to hopefully be an entertaining night for a league that has had some issues nailing these kinds of nights. In addition to Will Arnett, the list of presenters is... interesting:

NHL Awards presenters, including Tony X pic.twitter.com/VJI2mcrkoh

— Sean Leahy (@Sean_Leahy) June 21, 2016

 Tony X, of course, is Hockey's First Black Fan and I really hope the NHL makes him present with Anson Carter because I think the internet will legitimately melt.

We'll get some hot blondes to look at, and we'll also get Jason Priestley (who I may or may not be named after, I'm still waiting on an official ruling from my mom).

But what really matters tonight is the awards and who is going to win them. Let's jump in:

Hart Memorial Trophy and Vezina Trophy

Patrick Kane -1100 and Braden Holtby -3000

I'm going to combine these two categories into one big boring one because Kaner and Holtby ran away with them over the course of the year.

Calder Memorial Trophy

Artemi Panarin -375
Connor McDavid +270
Shayne Gostisbehere +900

The Rookie of the Year award this year isn't going to go to the most talented rookie (McDavid) or the most valuable (Gostisbehere). It's going to Panarin, who played on a line with the guy who led the league in points and led his team to three Stanley Cups in the last six years.

You can bet Panarin with 100% certainty that he's going to win, though you're going to want to throw him into a parlay to make it worth anything. (Panarin-Kane-Holtby parlay pays -233)

Frank J. Selke Award

Anze Kopitar -110
Patrice Bergeron EVEN
Ryan Kesler +650

Bergey has already won this award three times, and for good reason - he's a lockdown center, and this award rotates between him and Toews (Kesler won it in 2011, and before that it was Datsyuk and Brind'Amour for five years).

Much like the Bergeron/Toews/Kopitar group took over after the Datsyuk/Brindy phase, there is another group of Selke Guys on the horizon. Names like Aleksander Barkov and Sean Couturier will creep in, and Panthers/Flyers fans will argue for their inclusion in the award discussion well before they are ready.

But this year, I think it has to be Kopitar. He's always been in the discussion, and I believe the Hockey Media will reward him for that. Yes, obviously Bergeron is deserving. But Kopitar has been a "Selke Guy" for a while and he just got the captaincy in LA. It's time he got his trophy.

Jack Adams Award

Barry Trotz -135
Gerard Gallant +105
Lindy Ruff +900

I wonder if we can find out when these ballots were due, because if playoff performance is going to be factored in I'd take Gallant. Trotz was handed a roster that would have won 60 games if you simulated the season on NHL16. Gallant took a team full of old guys and rookies and turned them into a dark horse candidate in the Atlantic with an extremely bright future, though they were bounced in the first round.

(Does a Google search) Okay so the ballots were due at the end of the regular season, meaning we're choosing between the coach who rode his stacked roster to the Presidents' Trophy and the coach who rode his hodgepodge roster to the best season in franchise history. Recent history tends to favor the coach of the team that wasn't an all-time great, plus Fuck The Caps. I'll take Gallant at +105.

James Norris Trophy

Erik Karlsson -145
Drew Doughty +145
Brent Burns +550

I made a joke earlier about the internet burning to the ground if the make the two black guys present together, but that almost doesn't even matter because it's going to burn to the ground anyway when they announce the Norris winner.

Karlsson doesn't play defense, Doughty doesn't play offense, and Burns plays both very well but apparently isn't a legit candidate.

People much smarter than me have made cases for Karlsson, Doughty, and Burns (probably a hundred times apiece for the first two). In my Dumb Person analysis, here's what I can recall from my various reading over the course of the year (all facts may or may not be true):

• Karlsson plays more minutes than anyone in the league. His team is about league average with him on the ice, and they would drop to an Auston Matthews sweepstakes-caliber team with him on the bench. The big knock on him is he quarterbacks the Senators' offense instead of just standing in front of slapshots all night. 
• Doughty is a classic defense-first defenseman's defenseman. He may not score a lot of goals or generate a lot of offense, but he Gets To The Dirty Areas and Plays Physical In His Own End. Or something. I don't know. His offensive production is so bad that one person making charts comparing all the possible Norris candidates (I'm drawing a blank on who it was but I'll update this if I can find it) had to actually lower his limits for offensive production to get Doughty included in the top 20 defensemen. 
• Burns led all defensemen league-wide in goals. 

If you can't tell from those summaries, I think Karlsson should win and I'd prefer Burns over Doughty. But this is a two-horse race, and I'm backing EK. If I have to pick one reason, it's the difference in the Sens' on-ice product when he's on the ice versus when he's on the bench. 

The Bet Slip

Kane/Holtby/Panarin parlay -233

Kopitar -110

Gallant +105

Karlsson -145

Examining How The Euro2016 Betting Odds Have Shifted

I first looked at Bovada's odds for winning, advancing, and scoring goals a week ago yesterday. After lots of research (maybe not "lots" but you know how I do things), here is the bet slip I decided on as of May 31st:

• France to win the tournament +325
• Parlay France and Germany to win their groups -135
• Top tournament goalscorer:
• Cristiano Ronaldo, Portugal +800
• Graziano Pelle, Italy +3300
• Danny Welbeck, England +5000
• Thomas Muller, Germany +700
• Paco Alcacer, Spain +2500

As the tournament kickoff date approaches, I wanted to see how the betting landscape had shifted based on the bets people were placing. Here's the biggest changes:

To Win The Tournament

Biggest winner: France (+325 to +300)

The French had been tied with the Germans at +325 co-favorites, but they've taken enough action to push the lines to +300/+450. I don't think my blog analysis had anything to do with the lines moving that much, but I do think my logic was the cause of the shift. 

Biggest loser: Italy (+1400 to +1600)

Not only did Italy's odds become a little longer, but Portugal moving from +2000 to +1600 means the Italians and Portugese are now tied. My analysis of that: neither of these teams has a chance of winning. 

Top Tournament Goal Scorer

Biggest winners: 

• Alvaro Morata, Spain (+2000 to +1800)
• Mario Gomez, Germany (+3300 to +2500)
• Jamie Vardy, England (+3300 to +2800)
• Mario Mandzukic, Croatia (+3300 to +2800)

There isn't a clear-cut winner, because the board is still topped by Muller, Ronaldo, Griezmann, and then the Giroud/Lewandoski/Kane trio. But Morata and Gomez made fairly significant moves, and those two are certainly worth a look if you're betting France and looking to hedge with the Top Goalscorer prop. 

Biggest losers: 

• Daniel Sturridge, England (+4000 to +5000)
• Andre Schurrle, Germany (+5000 to +8000)
• David Silva, Spain (+5000 to +8000)
• Christian Benteke, Belgium (+5000 to +8000)
• Pedro, Spain (+5000 to +10000)
• People who bet on players who are not actually going to play like Paco Alcacer and Danny Welbeck

Nobody was a bigger loser than the idiot who told people to bet on Alcacer and Welbeck as decent long shots before we got confirmation that they were participating in the tournament. But Pedro was close, because for some reason he took the standard 5000-to-8000 drop and decided to fall even further down the board to 100/1. 

To Win Groups A and C

France and Germany were the runaway favorites in their groups, at -325 and -300 respectively, so we parlayed them at -135. 

Those three figures are now -350, -300, and -141. 

The Revised Bet Slip

France to win the tournament +300

Parlay France and Germany to win their groups -141

Top tournament goalscorer

• Ronaldo, Portugal +800
• Pelle, Italy +3300
• Gomez, Germany +2500
• Morata, Spain +1800

NBA Finals Game One Player Props

Series Prices: Cavaliers +170, Warriors -200

Cavs road to the Finals:

• Beat Detroit 4-0 (average score 103.5 to 95.0)
• Beat Atlanta 4-0 (average score 112.0 to 99.5)
• Beat Toronto 4-2 (average 113.0 to 84.5 in wins, 91.5 to 102.0 in losses)
• Overall average margin of victory: +16.5 in wins, +12.5 overall

Lebron is averaging 24.6 points in the postseason and has pretty much been solid in every game. His primary supporting cast (Kyrie, Love, and JR Smith) have supported him in some combination every night. That trio is averaging 24.3, 17.3, and 12.0 points per game.

If three of the four have good nights, the Cavs haven't had a problem at all. The issue arose in games 3 and 4 against Toronto, which are currently their only two playoff losses. Two of the Cav's three primary support guys were cold, at least by their standards (Love and Kyrie in Game 3, then Love and Smith in Game 4).

Warriors road to the Finals:

• Beat Houston 4-1 (average 113.5 to 89.8 in wins, lost 97-96)
• Beat Portland 4-1 (average 121.3 to 112.8 in wins, lost 120-108)
• Beat Oklahoma City 4-3 (average 110.5 to 97.8 in wins and 100.3 to 119.7 in losses)
• Overall margin of victory: +15,0 in wins, +6.4 overall

Steph and Klay are averaging 26.7 and 26.2 points each. Obviously, the best-shooting backcourt in history isn't having a problem filling up the scoresheet. 

If they have an easy weakness to spot, it's that their leading rebounder (Draymond Green) is 6'7" and the only other big man who plays more than ten minutes a night is Andrew Bogut, who averages 6.5 rebounds in just 18 minutes per game. 

The Cavs frontcourt, of course, is made up of Love (6'10", 9.6 rebounds per game), James (6'8", 8.6 rpg), Tristan Thompson (6'9", 8.4 rpg). For me, the Finals boils down to one question: can the Warriors hit enough shots to overcome Cleveland's presumed advantage on the boards? Vegas seems to think they can, and they seem to think that pretty aggressively. 

Game One, Tonight at 9:00, at Golden State

Point Spread: Warriors -6

For the Warriors to cover, they'd have to dominate this game like they have dominated almost all of their wins in the playoffs.

The -6 confuses me though, because the Dubs have pretty much been winning by double digits and losing by getting their doors blown off. Does -6 mean Vegas is swaying toward a doube-digit victory or toward the Cavs winning game one? I'm having a hard time reading it.

Over/Under 211 Total Points

From the Golden State side, this isn't helpful. Either the Warriors will win big and the game will go over, or they will lose big and the game will go over. To be fair, games 6 and 7 against the Thunder both would have stayed under.

The average Cavs game, however, is way below that 211 number. Their only games all postseason that would have gone over were games 2 and 3 against the Hawks. To piggyback on what we mentioned before, they've been controlling the glass and controlling the pace.

So, in my mind, the O/U being set this high favors Golden State.

The Bet: Tease Golden State -1.5 & Over 206.5

Teasers are the best, and this gives us a little bit of breathing room on the Warriors and the over. I think I would feel confident betting both/either of the normal lines, but teasing always kind of seems to just draw me in.

(Editor's note: I will try to update this with some player props when they are released this afternoon.)

2016 Grammys Recap

I was not thrilled with out last night played out. If you recall, our bet slip was:

Album of the Year 1989 (-250)
Best New Artist James Bay (+200)
Record of the Year Blank Space (+600)
Record of the Year Can't Feel My Face (+600)
Song of the Year See You Again (+700)

Things That Were Good

• Chris Stapleton won his first Grammy! I love that guy
• Taylor Swift won album of the year for 1989
• Justin Bieber is fucking amazing, feel free to @ me
• Josh Groban is still alive

Things That Were Bad

• Every other bet we made lost
• James Bay lost Best New Artist to Meghan Trainor, who has been releasing music of her own since 2009 (I was still legally unable to drive past 9pm by myself at that point)
• Record of the year went to Bruno Mars for his blatant plagiarism of Trinidad James, which is a bad precedent to set for the future of music in my opinion
• Ellie Goulding's lip injection obviously ran into some sort of complications
• The Fast And The Furious was snubbed by yet another mainstream awards show, SMH
• Why couldn't the Adele microphone fuckup have happened to literally anyone else? Adele handled it so well. I would have much rather seen someone throw a fit on stage in front of millions of people
• I don't know how most people felt about Lady Gaga's tribute to David Bowie, but I hated it
• Who invited this fucking guy?

2016 Grammys Betting Preview

Every hipster's least favorite awards show of the year is on tonight - The Grammys. It's a night where we celebrate Taylor Swift, Bruno Mars, Meghan Trainor, and the rest of the people who have slowly ruined music over the past decade or so. Year after year of seeking a huge payday has left us with a bunch of rich artists and labels, and a whole lot of crappy songs on the radio.

So, we might as well make some money of our own right? Bovada has four props available:

Album of the Year

Nominees: Taylor Swift's 1989 (-250), Kendrick Lamar's To Pimp A Butterfly (+300), and then Alabama Shakes, The Weeknd, and Chris Stapleton are all pretty heavy underdogs

Recent winners:Beck's Morning Phase (2015), Daft Punk's Random Access Memories (2014), Mumford & Sons' Babel (2013), Adele's 21 (2012), Arcade Fire's The Suburbs (2011), Taylor Swift's Fearless (2010)

I love Taylor Swift, I know Dag loves Taylor Swift, and I just wish the line on 1989 paid more. Lock that in, and maybe mix it into a parlay.

Best New Artist

Nominees: Meghan Trainor (-125), James Bay (+200), Sam Hunt (+500), and then Courtney Barnett and Tori Kelly are pretty heavy underdogs

Recent winners: Sam Smith (2015), Macklemore (2014), Fun (2013), Bon Iver (2012), Esperanza Spalding (2011), Zac Brown Band (2010)

As you can see, to win Best New Artist you don't really have to be new and you definitely don't have to be the best. For reference, my picks for those six years would have been:

• 2015 - I have no complaints with Sam Smith
• 2014 - I'm pretty sure that even Macklemore thought Kendrick Lamar should win
• 2013 - Your options here were Fun, Alabama Shakes, Hunter Hayes, Frank Ocean, and the Lumineers. Am I allowed to pick nobody?
• 2012 - I'd go Skrillex just because of how revolutionary he was
• 2011 - How the FUCK did Esperanza Spalding win over Justin Bieber, Drake, Florence and the Machine, and Mumford & Sons? Holy Christ
• 2010 - Zac Brown was the right choice

I had never heard of James Bay until writing this post, but he almost kinda looks like Keira Knightley. I'm not sure if that's going to help him or hurt him here. Courtney Barnett and Tori Kelly are also total question marks for me, but their odds are so high that I'd be shocked if they won. 

That leaves us with Meghan Trainor (who I hate) and Sam Hunt (who a lot of people hate) to wager on. I think I'd stay away here, because I refuse to bet on Trainor and I don't think Sam Hunt will win for the same reason Skrillex didn't win; he has a unique sound that will likely end up changing quite a bit in the genre, but that doesn't get rewarded with a Grammy. 

You know, after writing that, I think I'm in on James Bay. He's got a decent payout at +200 and Wikipedia tells me he started playing guitar after he heard Eric Clapton's Layla. Why not, right? #cocaine

Record of the Year

Nominees: Bruno Mars' Uptown Funk (-500), Taylor Swift's Blank Space (+600), The Weeknd's Can't Feel My Face (+600), Ed Sheeran's Thinking Out Loud (+1400), and then a D'Angelo song is +2500

Recent winners: Sam Smith's Stay With Me (2015), Daft Punk's Get Lucky (2014), Gotye's Somebody That I Used To Know (2013), Adele's Rolling In The Deep (2012), Lady Antebellum's Need You Now (2011), Kings Of Leon's Use Somebody (2010)

Two notes here: first, there's like a 50% chance the Record is coming from the Best New Artist in any given year. Except there's no pair that would work, so just go ahead and cancel that whole theory for this year. 

Second, the winner of the Record of the Year category is almost always a song that I think is good. This year, that means we can throw D'Angelo and Ed Sheeran in the trash. You can essentially get 3/1 odds by betting on both Blank Space and Can't Feel My Face, but that might be a waste of money. Out of all the lines Bovada has, Uptown Funk is far and away the most heavily favored. 

Song of the Year

Nominees: Taylor Swift's Blank Space (-150), Ed Sheeran's Thinking Out Loud (+200), Wiz Khalifa's See You Again (+700), Kendrick Lamar's Alright (+900), and then a Little Big Town song is +2000

Recent winners: Sam Smith's Stay With Me (2015), Lorde's Royals (2014), Fun's We Are Young (2013), Adele's Rolling In The Deep (2012), Lady Antebellum's Need You Now (2011), Beyonce's Single Ladies (2010)

Am I crazy for thinking See You Again should be more heavily favored here? At +700, it's in the same range as songs that have almost no chance of winning in some other categories. But the story behind the song is a really emotional one, and it would be a very touching moment on stage. 

The Bet Slip

AotY 1989 (-250)

BNA James Bay (+200)

RotY Blank Space (+600)

RotY Can't Feel My Face (+600)

SotY See You Again (+700)

National Championship Betting Preview

Confession time: I haven't really been paying attention to college football since the regular season ended. The most I saw of 90% of bowl games was the ghost town stadiums on the Empty Seats twitter account.

We didn't even really look to bet on the semifinal games. I kind of paid attention to them on New Years Eve but I was more focused on drinking rum and cokes. It capped off a week of top-tier college football games that we didn't really pay attention to.

With hockey, college basketball, and pro football seasons in full swing, it's easy to get distracted and forget about college football. Even tonight, I'll probably be more focused on David Bowie than I am on Alabama-Clemson.

But it's the biggest football game of the season so far, and I think that's a good occasion to win some money.

Total Team Points: Alabama 29.5, Clemson 23

'Bama was only held under 29 points twice all year: at home against Arkansas (27) and Tennessee (19). It's important to note that they won both of those games, limiting Arkansas and Tennessee each to just 14 points.  Tennessee ranks 36th in the nation in yards per game against (362.0), and Arkansas is 58th (391.6). Clemson, though they have admittedly played an easier schedule than any SEC team, are 6th in the nation in YPG allowed (301.6).

Clemson has been held below 23 points just once all season, when they scored 20 at Louisville. They were held close against Notre Dame (24) and Florida State (23). Again, it's important to note that they won all three of these games despite being held well below their season average of 38.4 points. It would certainly be a feat for Alabama to hold them below 23 points, but the Tide have managed to do just that against Wisconsin, Georgia, Arkansas, Tennessee, LSU, Mississippi State, Auburn, Florida, and Michigan State this season.

Point Spread: Alabama -7

That leads me to my first real bet of the night: Alabama -7 (or buy half a point to get it inside a touchdown if you prefer).

The Tide only lost one game all year, and won by less than a touchdown once. The narrow win was against Tennessee (discussed above), and it was a low-scoring affair that doesn't seem likely to happen again versus Clemson, who can certainly score with ease against most teams.

The Tide loss was a barn-burner against Ole Miss. The final score was 43-37 Ole Miss, and they were led by quarterback Chad Kelly's 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. Had Alabama limited its turnovers (3 interceptions will kill you), the Tide could be seeking a perfect season. But they fell victim to a staunch Ole Miss defense and dug themselves a hole that proved too large to escape.

Here's why I don't expect Clemson to replicate that upset: that game was the pinnacle of Ole Miss' season. They finished 10-3 after their convincing bowl win over Oklahoma State. They finished 6-2 in the conference and came in second place in the best division in football. But their biggest accomplishment was knocking off the Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa. They played a perfect game and still only won by 6 points.

Clemson only played 3 ranked teams all season. They beat Notre Dame, Florida State, and North Carolina (all home games) by a combined 20 points. That may seem like a healthy margin, but those teams are decidedly in this season's second tier. Now, the Tigers have to travel 2,000 miles from home and play the best team (and the best coach) in college football for the past decade.

Jake Coker To Throw An Interception -130
Deshaun Watson To Throw An Interception -190
Parlay Both QB's To Throw At Least One Pick Each +170

There are some aspects of the loss to Ole Miss that figure to reappear in Arizona tonight: interceptions. Tide quarterback Jake Coker has not thrown one since November 14th, and has avoided turnovers in the four games down the stretch.

But Clemson's defense has tallied five picks in the past four games, bringing their total to 16 on the season. Alabama's defense has totaled 18 this year, and figures to snag at least one from Watson, who's thrown just about a pick per game all season.

Derrick Henry Rushing Yards Over/Under 145.5
Derrick Henry Total Touchdowns Over/Under 1.5

Yes, Clemson largely creamed Oklahoma in their semifinal game. They held Baker Mayfield to 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions, but the biggest disparity in the game was in rushing offense. Clemson held Oklahoma to just 67 rushing yards. Total. As an entire team. And that includes a pair of 18 yard rushes each by Mayfield and receiver Dede Westbrook.

Clemson did well to hold Samaje Perine well under 100 yards (and to just one touchdown).  On the season, Perine totaled 1349 rushing yards, 6.0 yards per carry, and 16 touchdowns on the season. Obviously, Oklahoma's defense held him below his season average.

Henry, in a tougher conference defensively than Perine, totaled 2061 yards on 5.7 yards per carry and 25 touchdowns. Even if Clemson holds him down (proportionally) the same way they held Perine in check, he's still good for about a hundred yards and two touchdowns.

I'm inclined to bet both Overs here, because Henry has gone over in at least one of these categories in 12 of 14 games this year. The outliers were against ULM (only 13 carries in a blowout) and Arkansas (only 95 yards and 1 TD.. somehow that's his worst game of the season). There were four games this year where he ran for more than 145 yards and 2+ touchdowns: Wisconsin, Texas A&M, LSU, Mississippi State. He was used lightly against Michigan State last week, but he was on pace to make it five enormous games in a row that he dominated. He's a big game performer, and I expect him to put on a show tonight.

Tuesday Night MACtion Preview: Toledo @ Central Michigan

To simplify this game, Toledo is a run-based offense (5.3 yards per attempt, 222.9 yards per game, 16 rushing touchdowns) that ranks top 3 in the conference in rushing and bottom 3 in passing. CMU is a pass-based offense (296.2 yards per game, 20 touchdown passes) that ranks in the top 3 in passing and is dead last in rushing.

I love these games because we'll see how Toledo has handled good passing teams, how CMU has handled good rushing teams, and then figure out where we can make a bunch of money. At the time of me writing this, the line is Toledo -4.5.

Toledo against the pass:

• Arkansas: 32/53 attempts, 412 yards, 0 touchdowns, 1 interception (they average 280.2 yards, 2.3 touchdowns, 0.6 interceptions)
• Iowa State: 26/43, 274 yards, 1 touchdown, 0 interceptions (239.2 yards, 1.6 touchdowns, 1.0 interceptions)
• Arkansas State: don't pay attention to this game, they aren't a real school
• Ball State: 23/37, 236 yards, 1 touchdown, 0 interceptions (221.8 yards, 1.4 touchdowns, 0.6 interceptions)
• Kent State: don't pay attention to this game, they're the worst passing team in the MAC
• Eastern Michigan: 25/39, 205 yards, 0 touchdowns, 1 interception (218.3 yards, 1.4 touchdowns, 1.4 interceptions)
• UMass: 27/49, 240 yards, 4 touchdowns, 1 interception (293.0 yards, 1.9 touchdowns, 1.0 interceptions)
• Northern Illinois: 16/25, 277 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception (236.1 yards, 1.7 touchdowns, 0.6 interceptions)

UMass is right behind CMU in terms of passing yards in the conference, but CMU throws the ball more efficiently. It's important to note that Toledo won that game despite giving up 4 touchdown passes (Toledo QB Phillip Ely threw 5). 

Overall, with the exception of the UMass game, Toledo's defense does a good job of containing against the pass. In every game listed above (and the two not listed), they've held opponents to under or around their averages in passing yards and touchdowns. That's why they're a road favorite tonight. 

Central Michigan against the two MAC teams similar to Toledo's running game:

• Northern Illinois: 59 carries, 211 yards, 3.6 yards per carry, 2 touchdowns (they average 47.4 carries, 207.0 yards, 4.4 yards per carry, 2.8 touchdowns)
• Western Michigan: 41 carries, 215 yards, 5.2 yards per carry, 1 touchdown (39.6 carries, 208/2 yards, 5.3 yards per carry, 2.1 touchdowns)

I want to note that WMU's quarterback had a near-perfect day, with 15 completions on 22 attempts for 262 yards, 4 touchdowns, and a bananas 94.1 QBR. I'm going to make a mental note to bet on them in the future, because they lost to Michigan State and Ohio State, flubbed a game at Georgia Southern, and have creamed almost everyone else. My man Clay Travis loves Bowling Green this year, but BGSU travels to WMU tomorrow night, and I like the Broncos as a 3-point home dog. 

Back to the game at hand, though, and I like Toledo here. I almost like them too much - this feels like a CMU line, but I don't think Toledo has a problem covering 4.5 at all. 

Monday Night Football Preview: Colts @ Panthers

It's a bleak time for us. We can't afford food. We can't afford beer. I have a Blackberry so I can't even drive with Uber (dot com) to make some extra life-changing money. Here's how we've fared so far on weeknight games:

Monday Nights: 18-24
Thursday Nights: 12-14-2

We aren't going to make up 8 wins tonight, but we need some momentum for the second half of the season. That's the logic we're using, and it also applies perfectly to the Philadelphia Eagles. 

Through 7 games, the Colts are a meager 3-4 and have disappointed everyone who considered them a real contender. The Panthers, on the other hand, have blown past expectations and have started the season undefeated through 6 games. 

For tonight's matchup, I'm going to throw out some fun stats to brighten your Monday morning (and then follow it up with some related bets to ruin your Monday night).

Fun Stat #1: In first halves, the Colts have thrown for just 5.6 yards per attempt, 4 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, have a QB rating of just 69.2. They have just 1 first half rushing touchdown and 2 fumbles. In second halves, they've thrown for 7.3 yards per attempt and 10 touchdowns (and 5 interceptions). The rushing attack has also seen a little more success in the second half, but the jump isn't as significant because the Colts stink and are always playing from behind. 

Along the same lines, you would expect Carolina to have more rushing success in the second halves of their victories. They've certainly relied more on the run in second halves (106 attempts to 91 first-half attempts), but they've only scored 1 more touchdown in the second half than the first, and their yards per rush drop from 5.2 in the first half to 3.8 in the second. However, their passing attack improves from 4 touchdowns/5 interceptions/5.9 yards per attempt in the first half to 5 touchdowns/2 interceptions/8.3 yards per attempt in the second. 

The Colts' defense has 5 interceptions in first halves so far, compared to just 2 in the second half. The Panthers' D has 3 in the first half and 6 in the second, which is certainly helped by the fact that they are usually winning (and forcing the other team into obvious passing situations). 

Related Bet #1: First half under 23 (-115). The total for the game is 46 points, so this first half under feels like a steal. 

Fun Stat #2: There is an enormous gap between the payouts for First Score Of The Game:

• Colts Safety (+5000) and Panthers Safety (+5000) aren't going to happen
• Colts Field Goal (+400)
• Panthers Field Goal (+325)
• Colts Touchdown (+300)
• Panthers Touchdown (+130)

Related Bet #2: How more obvious can it be? Vegas knows what's going to happen. Midas whale profit off it - Carolina TD +130, please and thank you. 

Fun Stat #3: The Panthers have allowed just 5 passing touchdowns and 6 rushing touchdowns through 6 games. Vegas expects Andrew Luck to throw 1 or 2 touchdowns, and they expect TY Hilton (and to a slightly lesser extent, Donte Moncrief) to have a big night. 

Frank Gore has all 3 rushing touchdown for Indianapolis this year. Moncrief (5) and Hilton (3) lead the team in receiving touchdowns, and Fleener/Johnson/Dorsett/Allen/Whalen have each caught one. 

Related Bet #3: Gore (+125), Hilton (+125), and Moncrief (+175) are the only bets I'd even consider making on this side. Few running backs have had a lot of success against Carolina, but they've given up touchdowns to Doug Martin, Marshawn Lynch, and Ryan Mathews the past 3 weeks. I wish Gore's prop paid more, but it's a decent bet. 

Teams have been able to have some balanced success against Carolina this year, and they got torched by Vincent Jackson (6'5", 230 pounds) and Jimmy Graham (6'7", 265 pounds). The Colts don't have a wide receiver who fits that mold, but Coby Fleener (+250, 6'6", 251 pounds) seems a likely target if coach Pagano saw the same Box Scores that I did. 

Fun Stat #4: The Colts, on the other hand, have allowed 12 passing touchdowns and 8 rushing touchdowns through 7 games. Vegas expects Cam Newtown to throw more than one touchdown, and they expect Jonathan Stewart and Greg Olsen to have a big night. 

Newton (4) and Stewart (2) have done most of the scoring on the ground, and Mike Tolbert has a touchdown too. Through the air, Ted Ginn (3) and Olsen (3) are the most frequent touchdown scorers. Tolbert, Corey Brown, and Holy Crap Jerrico Cotchery Is Still In The NFL have all also caught one touchdown. 

Related Bet #4: Stewart (-125) and Newton (+100) don't pay as much as you'd like, and you can say the same about Olsen (+110). Even Ted Ginn - who was going to be my Wild Card - pays just +150. I think we have to pick two of those four, but I'm having a tough time deciding so I'm just going to fire away with all four. 

Fun Stat #5: Look at the touchdown props for the Carolina players. Look at Andrew Luck -275 to throw an interception and just +110 to go over 2 touchdowns. Look at the Team Points lines for Indy (20) and Carolina (27). Vegas loves the Panthers tonight, and so do I. 

Related Bet #5: Panthers -7

Monday Night Football Preview: Ravens @ Cardinals

As much as I hate to say it, we are in a bad spot. Two weeks in a row, we had college football teasers blown up by Last Play Of The Game Special Teams Miracles As Time Expires - first Michigan, then Florida State. I can't take any more special teams defense heroics. 

Also we're hemorrhaging money:

Thursday Nights: 12-14-2
Monday Nights: 17-20

So take these bits of advice at your own risk:

Line: Cardinals -9 and Over/Under 49.5

There's a lot to consider with a line that big. For one, the Ravens are 1-5 but have not lost a game by more than 6 points. They have one-possession losses to the Broncos and Bengals, and they beat the Steelers. However, they have losses to the Raiders, Browns, and 49ers. 

On the other side of the field, the Cardinals have blown out the Saints, Bears, 49ers, and Lions by an average of 25.5 points. They lost by 2 to the Rams, and they are coming off a 12 point loss at Pittsburgh. 

I think the best way to attack this is to see how St. Louis and Pittsburgh kept Arizona in check, and then figure out if Baltimore can replicate that. 

The Rams had a very Rams game when they beat the Cardinals 24-22. Nick Foles had just 171 yards, but he threw three touchdowns and zero interceptions. Todd Gurley did the heavy lifting, totaling 146 rushing yards. The biggest thing they did, though, was limiting Carson Palmer and the Cardinals to just one towndown. 

The Steelers also limited Arizona to just one touchdown. Landry Jones and Mike Vick combined for a surprisingly good stat line of 174 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Vick and Le'Veon Bell combined for 135 rushing yards. 

You do not beat the Cardinals by going all "New NFL" on them and trying to throw for 400 yards - just ask Drew Brees, Jay Cutler, and Matt Stafford. You beat them by pounding the ball, chewing up clock, and holding Arizona to field goals instead of touchdowns. 

I might be crazy, but I really like Baltimore here. 

In their Denver game, they held the Broncos to 0 offensive touchdowns, 1 defensive touchdown, and 4 field goals. They couldn't get anything going against Denver's tough defense, and Joe Flacco's 2 interceptions really killed any chance they had of actually winning. 

In their Bengals game, the Ravens got torn up by Andy Dalton. The Red Ginger (or whatever his gay nickname is) had 383 yards and 3 touchdowns, and he also rushed for a touchdown. If Baltimore had made one more stop in the red zone and held Cincy to a field goal, they could have pulled out a win. 

The Pick: Ravens +9 (-110). I think the line is 3-4 points too high, and I think Baltimore is going to be able to keep it close by pounding the ball with Justin Forsett and Javorius Allen.

Now, onto the player props:

The Cards have a running back committee that is led by Chris Johnson (93 carries, 2 touchdowns) but also includes Andre Ellington (16 carries, 2 touchdowns) and David Johnson (21 carries, 3 touchdowns). I really would have liked to take David to score, but Bovada has not made him available. I'm making up my own odds and picking David Johnson To Score A Touchdown (+550). 

On the Baltimore side, my first thought was the entire game is going to go through Forsett. I was thinking about taking him at even money to score, but I'm nervous that he totaled just 56 yards in Baltimore's games against Denver and Cincy. So I'm staying away. 

Kamar Aiken Over 3.5 Receptions (-105) is a tasty bet because he's gone for 5-5-4-3 receptions in the last four games he played. He got at least 7 targets in each of those games, and you have to think the Cardinals will be keying on Steve Smith tonight to try to negate Joe Flacco's first option. 

He's averaging 5.5 catches per game and he had 10 last week, so John Brown Over 4.5 Receptions (-115) sort of feels like stealing. Thanks, Las Vegas! The same goes for Larry Fitzgerald Over 6 Receptions (-140), because Fitz has only caught less than 6 passes once this year, when he caught 5. I think I might make that the lock of the week just so we can all tweet #NiceHandsLarry at each other all night for a good laugh. 

Thursday Night Football Recap: Seahawks @ 49ers

Sorry to make you wait so long for this recap. I was out of the office Friday because I wanted to be out of the office. Also because I'm getting sick and I sound like a dead person.

Busy day today: we'll start by recapping Thursday, I'll toss in some gripes about FSU blowing up a teaser, and then we'll make some money in the Cardinals game tonight.

But first, we have to look to the past:

Teaser: Seahawks -1 and Over 36.5 (Loss)
The Forty-Niners did not hold up their end of the bargain, and they finished the game with just 3 points. Colin Kaepernick's QBR was 9.0. Single digits! Obviously we should have just bet the Seattle spread because they covered the -7 easily.

Colin Kaepernick To Score A Touchdown (Loss)
Just a quick reminder that the prop could have been "Colin Kaepernick's Team To Score A Touchdown" and it still would have been a loss.

Jimmy Graham To Score A Touchdown (Loss)
I maintain that this was a good value bet at +120, but Seattle's two touchdowns went to Marshawn Lynch and Tyler Lockett. Graham was targeted 5 times and caught 2 passes for 31 yards.

Fuck me!

Thursday night: 0-3
Thursday Nights: 12-14-2
Monday Nights: 17-20

Thursday Night Football: Seahawks @ 49ers

It seems like it was so long ago that a Seahawks-Niners game could be happening two weeks before the Super Bowl. Then Harbaugh went back to college and the Seahawks had to do the Chicago Blackhawks salary cap shed/reload move and they've started two seasons in a row poorly.

So here they are, both at 2-4 and both having showed flashes of the solid teams they've been in the recent past.

I could see tonight going a LOT of ways, but I'm going to throw out a few lines to try to build on our season record (17-20 on Monday nights and 12-11-2 on Thursday nights).

Tease Seahawks -1 and Over 36.5

Except for their Loud Fart Noise against Detroit when they scored just 13 and their loss at Green Bay when they scored 17, Seattle have scored 20+ against every team they've played so far. And they haven't been facing cupcake defenses: the Rams, Bengals, and Panthers have all been good this year. 

On the other side, San Francisco has gotten creamed by the Steelers, Cardinals, and Packers. They blew out Minnesota to start the year and have played close games against the Giants (loss) and Ravens (win) the past two weeks. 

That over/under line is set as if these two defenses were still as elite as they've been the past 5 years. But Seattle is allowing 21.3 points per game (25.6 if you factor out Chicago's 0). San Francisco is allowing 26.7 per game (31.4 if you factor out Minnesota's 3). 

Ultimately I like Seattle because of the following lines: Wilson to throw over 1.5 touchdowns pays -135, while the same line for Kaepernick pays +140. Wilson to throw an interception pays -115, while Kaepernick's line is -155. 

I think I like Seattle's spread even without the tease, and I feel the same way about the over. But teasers are the best and I could absolutely see a situation where Seattle wins 20-17. 

To Score A Touchdown:

Jimmy Graham +120

Marshawn Lynch is the only player in the game who has prohibitive odds to score a touchdown. That kind of tells you what sort of game Vegas is expecting (the Total Touchdowns line is over/under 4.5). Jimmy Graham and Doug Baldwin lead Seattle with 2 receiving touchdowns each, and Lynch actually only has 1 rushing touchdown on the year so far. The Waterbirds defense has 2 touchdowns. 

Colin Kaepernick +300

Carlos Hyde is questionable, which should increase Kap's load - and he already runs 6+ times per game. He's rushed for 228 yards and 1 touchdown, and he's about as likely as anyone on the Niners to convert in the red zone. (This paragraph was sponsored by the ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ emoji.)

Tuesday Night Sun Belt Preview: UL Lafayette @ Arkansas State

Ragin' Cajuns! Red Wolves! Tonight on ESPN2!

My goal with this post is to absolutely nail two bets: the point spread is currently Ark State -9 (looking like it might move to -8.5), and the over/under is a hefty 63 (looking light it might move to 63.5). In the interest of full disclosure, my gut says take the Ragin' Cajuns because that's the best nickname in all of sports.

Ragin' Cajuns Summary

• Junior QB Brooks Haack stinks. He's thrown 0 touchdowns and 4 interceptions on his 66 attempts for the season, and he seems to getting gradually phased out.
• Haack's replacement has been fellow Junior Jalen Nixon. On his 86 attempts, he's totaled 5 touchdowns and just 2 interceptions. Nixon has also rushed for 99 yards in the past two games. 
• ULL does more damage on the ground, totaling 1156 yards and 15 touchdowns through 5 games. They are led by Junior Elijah McGuire's 585 yards (on 6.0 yards per carry) and 7 touchdowns. 
• The Cajuns have a balanced receiving group, with 5 receivers between 12 and 22 receptions on the year. Four of those five have scored a touchdown, and there are 8 receivers who have caught at least one pass of 20+ yards this year. 
• The ULL defense has been all over the place. They gave up 40 at Kentucky (23.4 ppg since), 17 versus Northwestern State (26.6 in other games), 35 versus Akron (26.2 in other games, but they either blow the other team out or get blown out), 43 at Louisiana Tech (35.7 in other games), and 27 versus Texas State (35.8 in other games, but got killed by FSU and Houston). 
• One sentence summary: Hamstrung by interceptions and the lack of a defense against Akron and La Tech, but overall about as solid as you could expect a Sun Belt team to be. 

Red Wolves Summary

• Ark State have been splitting quarterback time between Senior Fredi Knighten (63 attempts, 302 yards, 4 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, 45 rushes, 90 yards, 0 touchdowns, has been a successful runner in the past) and Freshman James Tabary (102 attempts, 788 yards, 4 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, not a rushing threat at all). 
• Similarly productive on the ground, they've totaled 1190 yards and 15 touchdowns. The three-headed beast of Michael Gordon, Warren Wand (A+ porn name), and Johnston White have combined for 1035 of those yards on 6.0 yards per carry, and have scored 14 of the team's rushing touchdowns. 
• JD McKissic leads the team in receptions and yards, and Tres Houston (A+ rap name) leads the team with 4 receiving touchdowns. 
• The Wolves have held just one opponent under 27 points this year: Missouri State, who have gotten absolutely obliterated in 5 of their 6 games this year, with their other game being an 8-point win against Chadron State, who do not have a team page on ESPN. USC scored 55 (average 35.0 in other games), Mizzou scored 27 (17.8 in other games), Toledo scored 37 (34.2 in other games), Idaho scored 35 (23.4 in other games), and South Alabama scored 31 (22.6 in other games). 

After looking at those summaries, how the FUCK can you think Ark State is going to cover a 9 point spread? (Checking Bovada again, the spread have moved all the way down to 7.5 since I started writing.) That's a #shoutout to my fellow sharp bettors, because 9 is a laughable line and even 7.5 is a joke. Tbh I kind of like the Ragin' Cajun moneyline at +265. Forget the over/under, I'm not going to review that. Take whatever money you were going to bet on the over and bet it on the Ragin' Cajuns. #LetsRage

If you're looking for a counterpoint, here's a link to an article on Athlon Sports that basically undermines everything I think about this game.)

Monday Night Recap: Giants @ Eagles

This is the reaction from Eagles Legend Ron "Jaws" Jaworski to the game last night:

.@jawsespn on Bradford "You cannot turn the ball over and it's become a chronic issue with him."

— 975TheFanatic (@975TheFanatic) October 20, 2015

.@jawsespn on Bradford "He's not sharp right now and I am concerned. It's been 6 games, let's stop the excuses and start playing."

— 975TheFanatic (@975TheFanatic) October 20, 2015

As negative as you could possibly be about a quarterback who just "led" his team to a 27-7 win. I put led in quotes because in all honestly this team was led by the defensive line. But you don't come here for in-depth analysis of the defensive line, you come for sketchy pseudo-analysis of player props:

Eagles -4 (Win)
As noted above, the game was not particularly close.

Sam Bradford Passing Yards Over 275.5 (Win)
To be honest I would have taken him over like 300 yards because I really expected him to torch the Giants. But he was missing his receivers all night, and there were very few times he looked like a legit NFL quarterback. But again, you don't come to me for actual analysis, you come to hear me tell you that he ended the game with 280 yards. Cha-ching!

Sam Bradford Touchdown Passes Over 1.5 (Loss)
He only threw one, but he did throw three interceptions.

Darren Sproles To Score A Touchdown (Loss)
There was not nearly enough Sproles last night. He had 2 carries for 4 yards and 1 catch for 3 yards. On Brian Westbrook night, I expected some noise in the return game. He returned 4 punts, but his longest went for just 13 yards.

Eli Manning To Throw An Interception (Win)
I think my new strategy is going to be parlaying both quarterbacks to throw an interception. In every game that doesn't feature Brady or Rodgers, it seems like both QB's always toss at least one each. Last night Eli threw 2 and Bradford threw 3.

Shane Vereen Receiving Yards Over 39.5 (Loss)
Did Vereen even play last night? What the fuck, man. He ended with 1 catch and 6 yards,

Rashad Jennings Over 2 Receptions (Win)
The lock of the night was a winner again, but it wasn't easy. Rashad was only targeted 3 times so he had to catch all 3, and he did. His first catch went for 6 yards, then he fumbled and gave the ball back to the Eagles (but it counts!). And then, in the fourth quarter, on the final Giants possession of the game, down by three touchdowns, Jennings came up big and caught 2 meaningless passes to go over his total.

Last night: 4-3
Monday nights: 17-20
Thursday nights: 12-11-2

We're crawling back up to the black. I'll see you guys on Thursday.

Monday Night Football Preview: Giants @ Eagles

If you follow these Thursday Night/Monday Night previews and recaps, you know I've had a bad stretch of picking NFC East games. It's part of the reason I'm just 12-11-2 on Thursday nights and 13-17 on Monday nights. (Another part of it is I got absolutely creamed with last week's Steelers-Chargers game.)

But we're turning the ship around tonight, just like Chip and Sam and the Birds are turning it around. The march for the playoffs started last week against the lowly Saints, and it continues tonight against a decidedly mediocre Giants team.

The G-men are allowing opposing quarterbacks to average 304.2 passing yards per game, 1.6 touchdowns per game, 1.0 interceptions per game. That group includes Tony Romo and Matt Ryan, but it also includes Kurt Cousins, Tyrod Taylor Who Stinks Now, and Colin Kaepernick Who May Or May Not Stink Now.

Opposing running backs, meanwhile, have been held to just 80.6 rushing yards per game and 0.6 rushing touchdowns. That sentence makes me really regret taking DeMarco Murray on FanDuel this week - perhaps I should have researched a little bit more and coughed up the extra $400 for Devonta Freeman.

Opposing "feature backs" have done these things:

• Joseph Randle: 16 carries, 65 yards, 0 touchdowns, 1 fumble
• Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman Combined: 21 carries, 57 yards, 2 touchdowns
• Matt Jones and Alfred Morris Combined: 17 carries, 57 yards, 0 touchdowns, 1 fumble
• Karlos Williams: 18 carries, 40 yards, 0 touchdowns
• Carlos Hyde: 21 carries, 93 yards, 1 touchdowns

For reference, Philly's backs combine to average 24.6 carries per game and 1.0 touchdowns per game. I don't think anybody will deny that DeMarco Murray, Ryan Mathews, and Darren Sproles are as giid or better than any group that NY has faced so far. I'm expecting a decent day on the ground, but the focus here should really be getting Bradford over 300 yards and at least a pair of touchdowns. 

Eagles -4 (-110)

Duh. That one should have been clear from the start. Bovada has the line on the Eagles at 27.5 and the Giants at 22.5. I think the Birds go over and the Giants stay under, but because I think it may end up being a shootout I will just take the plain old spread. 

Darren Sproles to Score a Touchdown (+150)

It's Villanova Graduate Brian Westbrook night at the Linc, as he's getting inducted into the Eagles Hall of Fame before the game. VGBW famously ran a kick back for a touchdown to cripple the Giants, and then Non-Villanova Graduate DeSean Jackson repeated the feat a few years later. This is destiny. Fate. Money in the bank. 

Sam Bradford Passing Yards Over 275.5 (-125)

As discussed above, the Giants are definitely susceptible to a quarterback torch job. Bradford is averaging just 245.8 yards per game, and the line being 30 yards above that is a testament to how bad New York has really been. Against the two teams he's played in the bottom half of the league in defense, #SamIAm went for 336 yards (Atlanta) and 333 yards (New Orleans). 

Sam Bradford Touchdown Passes Over 1.5 (-180)

See above. 

Eli Manning To Throw An Interception (-175)

Guys, it's Eli Manning. This is going to be a fun bet. 

Shane Vereen Receiving Yards Over 39.5 (-115)

Credit where it's due, New York has a solid passing attack. Even if Odell Beckham and Victor Cruz are out, and if Reuben Randle is also out with them, Eli is going to be chucking the ball around. I think Vereen is going to be a guy that benefits, because he can line up in any offensive position on the field. 

Rashad Jennings Over 2 Receptions (-115)

This is a mind blowing line. We know Eli is short on passing options. Jennings has caught 11 passes in the last 4 games. And we have the chance to push if he only catches 2? It's the lock of the week!

Time for me to get back to work. I'll see you guys out there tonight. #FlyEaglesFly

Recap: College Football Week 7

We had a lot of action across the board yesterday, and there were a bunch of games that went exactly like we predicted (pats self on back). There were also a few that we missed on... badly.

Florida State -7 (Win)
Ho hum, Florida State keeps marching toward the only two games on their schedule that matter: at Clemson on November 7th and at Florida November 28th.

Baylor -21.5 (Win)
The Bears are a really legitimate team, because they're going to be able to outscore everybody until they have to play an elite SEC or Big Ten defense.

Purdue +23.5 (Win)
On what planet is losing 24-7 ever a good thing?

Northwestern +2 (Loss)
I wrote a One Sentence Preview basically just blindly supporting the Wildcats. They got smoked by Iowa - so maybe it's best to do a little bit of research before betting? That's a strategy we should try sometime.

Texas Tech -32.5 (Loss)
The Raiders only beat lowly Kansas by 10 points, but the nice thing about losing that bet is we'll get a ton of points next week in their game against Oklahoma and we'll also be able to win on Kansas getting creamed by Oklahoma State. So we're losing one bet this week to win two next week - that's like a gambling 401(k).

Michigan -7 (Loss)
What can I say about this game that hasn't already been said? The ending of that game hurts a lot more in the "Tease Bag" section of this post, but Holy Christ that was a bad way to end a game. The Wolverines had a 99.8% chance to win, and they fucking blew it.

Alabama -4 (Win) and Over 54  (Win)
These two should have been co-locks of the week, but having three locks of the week kind of defeats the purpose. Alabama blew past Texas A&M and the game blew past the total. Easy.

Boston College +16.5 (Loss)
When I actually placed this, it had moved to 17 (which would have been a push). But I'm an honorable man and I'm going to take the loss here. I really thought BC's defensive success against everyone they had played would translate. But nope, Clemson put up 34.

Penn State +17.5 (Loss)
Ohio State kicked the crap out of them. Whoops.

Utah -6 (Lock of the week) (Win)
I was drunk at the bar and nervous that they weren't going to take care of business, but the Utes had a really strong fourth quarter and it made the steak at Sonny's that much tastier.

Oregon +3 (Win) and Moneyline (Win)
I didn't watch a second of this game, but Oregon beats Washington every time. That was an easy end to the day.

Tease Bag: Florida State (Win), Ole Miss (Loss), Michigan (Loss), LSU (Win)

Who Would Be In The Playoff If The Season Ended This Week
This is a new feature I decided to toss in here now, because we've seen the ups and downs of every team and we have a pretty good idea of who should be competing for the national championship.

1: Baylor
2: Alabama
3: Utah
4: Ohio State
First four out: the winner of FSU/Clemson, TCU, Michigan State, LSU

Is it too late to expand the playoff to eight teams?

Week 7 College Football Preview: The Night Games

(In case you missed them, I broke down the Florida State-Louisville game here and the rest of the noon games here. Then I previewed afternoon games, Michigan-Michigan State here and Alabama-A&M here. To recap those posts, we're on FSU -7 early, buying the extra half a point if we need to. We're also on Baylor, Purdue, Northwestern, and Texas Tech. We also have Ole Miss in the tease bag, waiting for a partner.)

Florida @ LSU (-7.5), 7:00
We have a lot to get to for tomorrow night so let's cut right to the chase here: LSU has beaten every team by 10+ points except Mississippi State, and they've won every home game by 21+. Miss State played them by far the closest of anyone this year, and LSU squeaked by with a 2 point win. Overall, MSU has a pretty average defense, and the box score doesn't show that they did anything crazy in that game. In reading recaps, it seems like LSU got clipped by some dumb penalties? I like LSU, but I'd prefer to toss it into the tease bag.

Boston College @ Clemson (-16.5), 7:00
Honestly guys, sixteen and a half against the best defense in the country? I don't even know if Clemson can score 17 points. Give me BC, please and thank you.

USC @ Notre Dame (-5), 7:30
As you guys know, we can't bet against Notre Dame. But I wanted to take a second to send some T's and P's to Steve Sarkisian, I hope he gets some help and some clarity in the next few months.

Missouri @ Georgia (-14.5), 7:30
Mizzou has been up and down this season, but Georgia has scored 30+ on everyone except Alabama. If we could tease the Dawgs down to (or even inside) a touchdown, I'd be all for adding it to the teasebag. At 14.5 though? I think I'd have to stay away.

Penn State @ Ohio State (-17.5), 8:00
Here's your weekly Mail It In Direct Quote From Clay Travis On Outkick The Coverage: "I can't tell you guys how much I love this game. Last year Penn State took Ohio State to double overtime after playing them virtually even in total yardage for the entire game. 

There was nothing flukish about this game, in fact, Ohio State actually got the benefit of some atrocious first half calls, otherwise Penn State might have won in regulation.

This year Penn State has won five straight games after a tough opening week loss to Temple. But most of the nation hasn't even noticed this. Meanwhile, Ohio State has been mediocre all season long, failing to cover in every game since week one. 

So you're telling me I've got a Penn State team that knows it was good enough to beat Ohio State last year, going on the road in a game that no one is giving them any chance to win? This is the situation that James Franklin dreams of, he's great at playing the no respect card.

My jaw dropped when I saw this line open at Ohio State -17.5. So far it hasn't budged much off that line. Don't just hammer Penn State here, take them on the money line for a part of your bet too. Get rich, kids."

Arizona State @ Utah (-6), 10:00
I mentioned in the Texas A&M preview that this weekend is when we'll find out if Arizona State is a legit contender out west. They aren't. Utah is going to spank them. This line inside of a touchdown is the easiest money of the whole weekend. Lock of the week, Utah -6.

Oregon @ Washington (-3), 10:30
I was really surprised to see this line. Oregon, recently, has been a contender for the Pac-12 title every year for a long time now Could 3-2 Washington really be favored over them? How fucking disrespectful is that? Then I did some digging (not a lot, tbh) and found that Washington won at USC last week and went to Boise State and only lost by 3 earlier this year. Boise State ran for 2 touchdowns and kicked 2 field goals, and USC ran for 1 and kicked 2. Against Michigan State and Utah (good defenses), Oregon combined to throw for 3 touchdowns, run for 3 more, and kick 0 field goals. Against the rest of their opponents, the Ducks averaged 2.0 touchdowns in the air, 3.8 touchdowns on the ground, and 2.3 field goals. So, yeah, Vegas, I think you fucked up and I think I'll take the Ducks -3 and the moneyline at +125 too.

Week 7 College Football Preview: Alabama @ Texas A&M

(In case you missed them, I broke down the Florida State-Louisville game here and the rest of the noon games here. Then I previewed the other afternoon game, Michigan-Michigan State, here.)

Now it's time for the two biggest games of the day. Two of the three best teams in the Big Ten on one TV, and two of the five best teams in the SEC on the other. (For the record, the rest of that list is Ohio State, LSU, and then maybe Florida and Ole Miss.)

Part 2: Alabama (-4) @ Texas A&M, 3:30, CBS

Anything you're looking into an Alabama game, you have to keep in mind that there is going to be a bias in Bama's favor because of Saban and because they have an ungodly amount of talent on the field and on the bench. A&M is rolling, undefeated, ranked higher than Alabama, and at home. Yet the Tide are favored. That's Alabama football.

So the question of the day/night: are the Tide really that much better than the Aggies? I mean A&M beat Arizona State 38-17 and we'll have to see what happens tomorrow night to know for sure whether ASU is really not a contender in the Pac-12. A&M also beat Arkansas and Mississippi State back in the SEC, and those two really cover the spectrum of run-heavy to pass-heavy in the SEC.

But there seems to be this lingering notion of Alabama being the king of the SEC, and really of the whole college football world. They beat Wisconsin and Arkansas pretty easily at home, and they went on the road and stomped the shit out of Georgia.

But the Tide's lone loss is also the crux of my preview: Bama had Ole Miss at home, and couldn't contain Chad Kelly and the Rebels enough to pull out a win. Kelly went off for 341 yards and 3 touchdowns without an interception, and he only needed 33 attempts (18 completions) to do it. Alabama out-rushed A&M 215 yards to 92, but both teams ran in two scores. The difference, really, was Alabama's quarterbacks combining for 3 interceptions.

As I write this, the over/under is at 54 and looking it might drop to 53. I LOVE the over here. A&M wants to throw the ball, and I just told you how Alabama fared against the other elite passing team in the SEC. Bama wants to run the ball, and A&M probably can't stop them:

• Arizona State ran for 92 yards and 1 touchdown (average 197.0 yards and 1.3 touchdowns in their other games)
• Ball State ran for 240 yards and 2 touchdowns (164.8 and 1.8)
• Nevada ran for 153 yards and 1 touchdown (236.2 and 2.0)
• Arkansas ran for 232 and 2 touchdowns (166.4 and 1.2)
• Mississippi State ran for 196 yards and 2 touchdowns (140.8 and 1.6)

In conclusion, I am 80% certain that Texas A&M will not be able to contain Alabama's rushing attack. I am 60% certain that Alabama will not be able to contain Texas A&M's passing attack. I think both teams will get into the 20s with ease, and I think the total will blow past 54. 

As for the point spread, I don't know how you can look at the facts and determine that A&M has any significant advantage except for home field. Even if A&M throws a gem like Chad Kelly did, they won't be able to bank on their defense to match those 3 interceptions, and they definitely won't be able to bank on Derrick Henry being slowed down. I like Alabama -4.