Showing posts with label recap. Show all posts
Showing posts with label recap. Show all posts

Wednesday, September 28, 2016

Preseason Recap: 9/27 vs. Islanders

After a pair of bad losses on Monday night, it was nice to see the boys in orange and black combine into one team and actually score goals last night. Steve Mason looked superb (more on him later), Wayne Simmonds scored twice (more on him later too), and we got a chance to see some impressive young talent.

In my preview post, I asked three questions about the forwards and three questions about the defense. I did not list a question about goaltending because I wasn't aware of who would be playing. But let's start there.

(Note: I'm pulling most of this from HockeyViz.com, which is going to end up being my favorite website during this hockey season.)

Steve Mason

Though the score makes it seem like this game was a blowout, it was very back-and-forth between the two teams. It's not as if the Islanders couldn't get anything set up on offense, or they were at a disadvantage in time of possession.

The Flyers' defense just kept them to the outside, clogged up the passing and shooting lanes, and Steve Mason stopped everything that managed to squeak through. I don't know the final number of saves because there isn't a single media outlet on Google News that has a recap of the game up now, but Mason looked great.

Laughton-Cousins-Weise

The presumptive third line played together for the first time last night, and they actually led all Flyers forwards in ice time. Weise scored one of the greasier goals possible, Cousins nearly got in a fight with someone who is 7 inches taller and 60 pounds heavier than him, and Laughton got penalty kill time instead of power play time.

Sometimes I forget that Laughton is supposed to be a defensive center, and in my mind I want him to fill the top-six winger role. But this trio all looked solid, and they finished about even in shot attempts (but on the "dull" side instead of the "fun" side, which is okay for a line like this). I wouldn't be averse to seeing them in that third line in games that count.

Matt Read & Jordan Weal

Weal, of course, got the benefits of (1) playing with Wayne Simmonds and Brayden Schenn and (2) starting just one of his 14 shifts in the neutral zone and the rest in the offensive zone. His line finished positive in shot attempts at even strength, and Weal/Schenn each assisted on one of Simmonds' powerplay goals. Weal played in the Giroux spot (Del Zotto and Sanheim played the Voracek/Gostisbehere spots), and he was impressive enough that he might get time on the second unit, if he can, you know, make the actual team.

Read did not get powerplay time, but he did get a few shifts on the penalty kill. He was buried in the defensive zone with Michael Raffl and Andy Miele, but that didn't stop them from scoring. It was good to see Read able to use his speed to create offense, and he had good chemistry with Boyd Gordon on the penalty kill. Reports of his death were greatly exaggerated.

The Fourth Line

Speaking of Gordon, he had kind of a quirky night. He started just two shifts on faceoffs, and the other eight were on-the-fly changes. He also played nearly as many minutes on the penalty kill as he did at even strength. That's exactly what he was signed to do. He kills penalties (and he did a good job tonight, as proven by the shutout) so that Claude Giroux doesn't have to.

Vandevelde is what he is. He's a body. He knows the system. I think he's an ideal 13th forward. You can plug him in if anything weird happens, but he's not going to drive play or create offense. He's just a solid end-of-the-roster guy.

Lyubimov is a total wild card for me. He finished with the worst shot attempt differential on the entire team, part of which comes from his poor showing against the NHL-caliber line of Bailey-Cizikas-Prince. He got some powerplay time and some penalty kill time, and I think he looked like he belongs in the NHL. I'll wait for Charlie O'Connor's morning recap before I officially pass my judgment, but I think I'm in on Roaming Lube Him Off.

Schultz-Sanheim

Well, that's an egg on my face. I used the word "disaster" when I described them, but the 55-57 pairing was the Flyers' best in terms of shot attempts. They weren't particularly sheltered, and there was not a single Islanders player who beat them in head-to-head shot attempts.

Sanheim got time on the top powerplay unit, including this nifty exchange with Phil Myers:
As it turns out, that was not even one of Sanheim's powerplay shifts (the Islanders just kind of stopped trying so it looked like they were down a man). He clearly has the puck skills to play in the league, and that'll only get better this year in Lehigh Valley.

Schultz, except for his scary crash into the boards that forced him to the locker room, was his usual self. He didn't do too much that's worthy of a highlight reel, but he's a rock solid defensive defenseman. He needs a partner who is capable of moving the puck at a high level, and Sanheim clearly checks that box. We'll have to see what happens when the World Cup guys return, though, because I don't know if Mark Streit checks that box anymore.

Provorov-MacDonald

The other two pairings had good nights, but this duo was by far the worst for the Flyers last night. Provorov, to his credit, always shows flashes of being the steady, balanced, all-around defenseman that he's supposed to be. He also sometimes looks like a 19 year old that knows his future is largely riding on the next week and a half.

Here's a silver lining in case you're getting sad: Provorov played 29 minutes and 22 minutes on back-to-back nights, with healthy doses of powerplay and penalty kill time in both games. Management is giving him the look that we all wanted them to. He just needs to be better so he can seize the opportunity.

Del Zotto-Myers

Do you want to talk about seizing an opportunity? Good Lord I love Philippe Myers. He's huge, and he hits, and he can play the puck. He's a perfect complement to Del Zotto. This is probably just my dumb hot take brain talking but I think he's been the best rookie (forward or defenseman) through camp and the preseason games. I don't think there's any chance that he stays up with the big club this year, but you know...... (trails off until someone else in the room says something)

Gudas is coming back from his hand injury. Gostisbehere and Streit are coming back from the World Cup. Brandon Manning is lurking somewhere. But the future is really goddamn bright, even if Ivan Provorov is maybe not living up to the impossible expectations we had for him. There is a lot of talent, a lot of variety, and it's all going to be ready in the next year or two.

The boys are on the ice again tonight, and I imagine the roster will look a bit different. We'll see you then.

Tuesday, September 27, 2016

Flyers Preseason Recap: 9/26

The team split up for the evening, with half going to New Jersey and half going to New York. With the majority of the top end of the Flyers roster not included in either lineup, it was a good chance for the coaching and management staff to see some of the young guys in action.

And it would have been cool for the fans to be able to see them, too. But that was too much for the NHL. The Devils game was only broadcast on the radio, and the Islanders game was streamed on the Flyers' website with no game sounds and an announcer who couldn't see what was happening on the ice.

So, that part was not great. But Sons of Penn did a solid job translating the highlights to GIF form, and Micah McCurdy somehow got advanced stats charts for both games. Let's dive in.

Flyers (0) vs. Islanders (3)

I tried to watch this stream, but the combination of poor video quality and terrible announcing made it tough. I don't blame it on the Flyers, or on the announcer, because this was his setup last night:
It was always going to be shitty. But my man Brian powered through, and here's what we were able to see (kind of):

  • With the exception of late in the second and third periods, Anthony Stolarz was shelled. He gave up two goals. But, in a game that allowed for very little team practice beforehand and featured just two NHL-veteran Flyers (Michael Del Zotto and Nick Cousins), there were flashes of brilliance from Stolarz. However, he was very much outshined by the goalie in the other game (more on him later). 
  • Nick Cousins got into two fights, and neither of them was as entertaining as Tyrell Goulbourne's fight last week. 
  • The big names on the Islanders roster last night were prospects Mathew Barzal, Michael Dal Colle, Ryan Strome, and Joshua Ho-Sang. All four of them had at least one point, and Barzal was the only one of the four to not score a goal. We've known the future is bright for the Islanders, but it's scary to see it happen. 
  • In this game, they split time between defensemen pretty evenly. The two guys to watch were Sam Morin and Travis Sanheim, obviously. They both played about 20 minutes total (Sanheim had some powerplay time and Morin killed at least one penalty). Morin, whether it's in training camp or in a game situation, clearly needs more time to stew. He's going to be an absolute animal, but his puck skills and decision making need to develop naturally. Sanheim is supposed to be the guy that already has those skills, but I was a little nervous about how he looked. Granted, it was tough to follow, but the few times I noticed #57 he was doing things that were bad. 
Flyers (0) vs. Devils (2)
  • We'll start with the easiest analysis of this game. Carter Hart, by all accounts, was absolutely fantastic. He gave up one goal (the second was an empty netter). Keep in mind that this Devils lineup was made up of more than half of their actual NHL roster (Bennett, Cammalleri, Gazdic, Josefson, Kalinin, Zacha, Zajac, Greene, Lovejoy, Severson). Hart outplayed Stolarz against superior competition, and even though it's just one game it's a great sign for the goalie battle in Lehigh Valley*. 
  • The Devils may have iced an NHL roster, but the Flyers certainly didn't. Scott Laughton and Brandon Manning were the only skaters with significant NHL experience, but the lineup also included NHL hopefuls Travis Konecny, Taylor Leier, Roman Lyubimov, Robert Haag, and Ivan Provorov. 
  • Obviously Provorov is getting his own bullet. He played 29 (!!) minutes total, which includes leading the team in ice time in even strength, powerplay, and penalty kill minutes. He was as far from sheltered as a rookie can be, starting half of his shifts in his defensive zone. In a game where the 5v5 shot attempts chart essentially has every Devil in the positive and every Flyer in the negative, Provorov just about broke even in possession numbers. That includes close individual shot attempt battles with NHLers Lovejoy, Greene, Cammalleri, Zajac, and Bennett. Provy held Pavel Zacha to zero shot attempts while they were on the ice together, which is notable because Zacha was taken one pick before him. Provorov belongs in the NHL, and he proved it to us last night by holding his own against half a dozen guys who are experienced NHL veterans. 
*Update: obviously Carter Hart is only 18, so he'll be going back to juniors for at least another year. The goalie battle in Lehigh Valley will be between Stolarz and Alex Lyon. I hope you guys can all give me the credit I deserve for striving to put the best, most accurate, tremendously great product on your screen at all times. Thank you.

Monday, September 26, 2016

College Football Season Prop Recap: Week Four

It's Monday morning. I'm working with a four day hangover. I almost just turned my alarm off and took the day off of work. Looking back on that decision from my desk, I very clearly made the wrong decision.

But I'm at work, so I might as well work, right? Instead of doing actual work, though, I'm going to recap the eventful weekend we had with our season-long bets on Washington, FSU, Tennessee, and Oklahoma.

Let's start off with the easy one.

Oklahoma Had A Bye Week

And man, they needed it. They played Houston and Ohio State in weeks one and three, and they come out of the bye against TCU and then Texas. Those two games are the season for the Sooners; they could end up 3-2 (2-0 in the conference) with a manageable schedule the rest of the way, or they could end up 1-4 (0-2 in the conference) and be completely dead before mid-October.

Confidence Level: Well, It's Either Us Or Baylor Or West Virginia

#9 Washington Beat Arizona, 35-28 (OT)

We knew this game was going to be a lot different from the cakewalk the Huskies had for the first three games of the season. Arizona was the first "real" team they had to play.

Quarterback Jake Browning came back down to earth from his usual 300+ yards and 4+ touchdowns, finishing with 160 yards, 2 touchdowns (including the overtime winner), and an interception. But the real story was the Washington running game combining for 352 yards, 3 touchdown, and 6.9 yards per carry. That, against an Arizona defense that allowed an average of about 150 yards per game and 4-ish yards per carry is a very good sign.

Part two of the trilogy of rough games is at Stanford next week.

Confidence Level: Somewhat Moderately High

#13 Florida State Beat South Florida, 55-35

At one point on Saturday afternoon, I checked my phone and this game was tied 14-14. I had bad thoughts, and I thought FSU might blow it.

From that point, the 'Noles scored three towndowns and kicked a field goal to go into halftime with a 38-14 lead. The two teams traded shots for the second half, and it turned out to be a relatively comfortable win.

Deondre Francois was his usual comfortable freshman self, totaling 169 passing yards, 75 rushing yards, and one of each kind of touchdown. Dalvin Cook, per usual, was the star. My man went for 267 yards on 9.5 yards per carry and two scores.

The 'Noles got bumped up from 13 to 12 with the win, but they no longer control their own fate in the division. Louisville is going to have to lose twice to some combination of Clemson, Duke, NC State, Virginia, and Wake Forest.

Confidence Level: Not Great, Bob

#14 Tennessee Beat Florida, 38-28

You should already be reading Clay Travis' four posts per week, but just in case you missed his college football recap yesterday, he summed up this game perfectly:

The Vols started the season in the national top ten, but this is their first appearance in the Outkick top ten. After muddling their way through the App State and Ohio games and playing one good half against Virginia Tech, at halftime of the Florida game, with the Vols trailing 21-3, I was ready to pronounce them dead.

But then something remarkable happened -- the Vols posted one of the best halves in the history of the program, thoroughly dominating Florida, turning a 21-0 deficit into a 38-21 advantage.

The result? The Vols roar into our top ten. (Clay has them ranked 9th in the nation, the polls have them 11th.)
Confidence Level: I Wish It Was Higher But Georgia, Texas A&M, And Alabama Over The Next Three Weeks Is Really Fucking Daunting

Wednesday, September 21, 2016

College Football Season Prop Recap: Week Three

Sorry for the delay. I usually try to post these on Monday morning, but I was busy providing great client service and I got sidetracked from what really matters.

Let's dive right in.

#2 Florida State lost to Louisville

We're going to breeze right through this Noles summary. They got killed, Louisville looked awesome, and they have no chance of winning their division.

Confidence Level: Bad

#8 Washington beat Portland State

They walloped Portland State (fucking bearded flannel hipsters) and moved to 3-0 against three fairly unimpressive opponents. That said, any time you can win three weeks in a row by a combined 148-30, things are good.

So now the Huskies move from a really easy trio to a REALLY hard trio. At Arizona, host Stanford, at Oregon. That's the whole season right there, boys.

Quarterback Jake Browning has been almost flawless. Backup quarterback KJ Carta-Samuels has thrown a mop-up touchdown in every game. The rushing and receiving attacks have been balanced, and there are about a dozen guys that can realistically contribute in those roles. This first month has gone as well as it could have for Washington.

Confidence Level: Higher Than Florida State

#14 Oklahoma lost to #3 Ohio State

After opening the season with a loss to Houston, Oklahoma really wasn't supposed to beat Ohio State. And they did not.

Here's the only comparison you need to sum up the game. Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield threw two touchdowns and two interceptions. Ohio State's JT Barrett threw four touchdowns and no interceptions.

The saving grace for Oklahoma is the rest of the Big 12 kind of stinks. TCU is technically winning the conference now (at 1-0) after they beat Iowa State in the only Big 12 game so far this season. Baylor and West Virginia are undefeated, but they've played NWST, SMU, RICE, MIZ, and YSU. That's a considerable step down from Houston and Ohio State.

And then Texas, who is the only other ranked Big 12 team (Oklahoma dropped to #25). The Longhorns are currently #21 basically exclusively because they outlasted Notre Dame in that season opener. But Notre Dame scored 47 points on them, and ND's probably going to end up being an unranked team when this season is all said and done.

Confidence Level: Higher Than Washington

#15 Tennessee beat Ohio

Tennessee is like the exact opposite of Washington, even though they have identical 3-0 records.

The Vols came into this year as the favorite in the SEC East. The Huskies were more of a dark horse in the Pac-12 North.

The Huskies have absolutely dominated the easy portion of their schedule, beating everyone by 30+ points. The Vols needed overtime to beat Appalachian State, had a good showing against lowly Virginia Tech, and just this past week they only beat Ohio by 9 points. Single digits!

Josh Dobbs was, once again, just okay. Jalen Hurd is now the second best player in the SEC whose name starts with "Jalen Hur". Kicker Aaron Medley is just 3/5 on field goals for the season.

Confidence Level: Florida Might Beat Them By 30 This Week

Monday, September 12, 2016

College Football Season Prop Recap: Week Two

Coming into week two, we were riding high with Washington and Florida State and maybe a little bit concerned about Tennessee and Oklahoma. Given the level of competition our four teams were facing this weekend, it was really crucial that we ended the day with four big ("statement") wins. 

And we did. 

Oklahoma 59, Louisiana Monroe 17
Florida State 52, Charleston Southern 8
Washington 59, Idaho 14

Three games against non-power-conference schools, one combined score of 170-39. Obviously these three games were always supposed to be lopsided, but it's reassuring that none of them had any semblance of a scare this weekend. 

Let's take a look at some of the highlight performers, bullet-style:
  • Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield and Austin Kendall combined for 352 yards and 5 touchdowns (Mayfield sat out the second half because it was such a blowout)
  • Oklahoma's Joe Mixon and Abdul Adams ran for 117 and 91 yards respectively, and Samaje Perine had 58 yards and 2 touchdowns
  • Oklahoma completed passed to 12 different receivers
  • Florida State's Deondre Francois threw for 262 yards and 3 touchdown (with 1 interception)
  • FSU's Dalvin Cook (Future Heisman Trophy Finalist) ran for 83 yards and 2 touchdowns
  • Florida State's Travis Rudolph caught 7 passes for 105 yards and 2 touchdowns
  • FSU's Jesus Wilson ran a punt back 89 yards for a touchdown
  • Washington's Jake Browning threw for 295 yards and 5 touchdowns
  • Here are the Huskies who caught touchdown passes: John Ross (2), Dante Pettis (2), Chico McClatcher, Quinten Pounds
  • Chico McClatcher and Quinten Pounds. Just back in the glow of those names
  • The Oklahoma and Washington kickers both kicked 8 extra points, and the Florida State kicker kicked 7 extra points
Confidence Level: Pretty Gosh Darn High for all three of these teams

It's really easy to pick out guys who had good days from these three games, because they were competing against significantly inferior talent. But what about the last team on our list? Tennessee was the only team to play against a power-conference team:

Tennessee 45, Virginia Tech 24

No problem. Granted, Va Tech kind of stinks now, but Tennessee rebounded nicely from their Week One struggles against Appalachian State. 

Josh Dobbs threw for just 91 yards, but he had 3 passing touchdowns, 105 rushing yards, and 2 rushing touchdowns. Jalen Hurd added 99 yards on 22 carries, and that was basically enough for the Vols to sink the Hokies. 

The most important stat of this game was the turnover battle. Dobbs threw an interception, but Virginia Tech lost FIVE fumbles. That is absolutely not something that will happen when Tennessee starts facing SEC competition, and the scoreboard would look a whole hell of a lot different if the Hokies has turned even two of those five into points. 

Confidence Level: Still Kind Of Low But Certainly Not As Low As Last Week

Tuesday, September 6, 2016

College Football Season Prop Recap: Week One

This day in the office is an absolutely must for any "Worst Work Days Of The Year" list. I'm basically nursing a four day hangover where all I drank was Bud Light and all I ate was eggs and cheesesteaks. There's a ton of work leftover from when I left at 2:30 on Friday, and an extra day's worth of shit to deal with from the long weekend.

But at least we had football this weekend, right?

As a reminder, we went with four season props this year. We bet the following teams to win their divisions (not conferences, other than Oklahoma because the Big XII has no divisions):

  • Tennessee
  • Oklahoma
  • Washington
  • Florida State


So we kicked off the weekend with Tennessee needing overtime to beat a Division 2 school, and then followed that up with Oklahoma losing to Houston. Then Washington blew out Rutgers and Florida State had their miracle second half and snuck a win away from Ole Miss. Let's do some deep dives:

Tennessee 20, Appalachian State 13 (OT)

Josh Dobbs was supposed to be the big swinging dick, best quarterback in the SEC, savior that steamrolled Tennessee to the SEC East championship. He kicked off his season with a 55% completion percentage, a single touchdown, an interception, and a QBR of 26.3. 

And this was against a Sun Belt team! App State is no longer Division 1-FCS, but they're still a team that should not be capable of taking a potential SEC Division Champion to overtime. 

Running back Jalen Hurd had a decent stat sheet - 28 carries, 110 yards, 1 touchdown. But he only averaged 3.9 yards per carry. What's going to happen when he's not playing against Future Enterprise Rent-A-Car Employees?

Confidence Level: Kind Of Low 

Oklahoma 23, Houston 33

This game, in retrospect, was all about field position. Both quarterbacks threw for 300+ yards and two touchdowns, both teams had decent but not great rushing attacks, and both offenses avoided turnovers. 

But Houston kicked four field goals and Oklahoma kicked one, and that's the whole game. 

Here's how the rest of the Big XII did: 
  • Lost: Kansas State (Stanford), Iowa State (Northern Iowa)
  • Beat A Shitty Team: Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Texas Tech
  • Beat A Decent Team: West Virginia (Mizzou)
  • Beat A Ranked Team: Texas (Notre Dame)
Confidence Level: Kind Of Low

Washington 48, Rutgers 13

Obviously, blowing out a power five team in the home opener is a great start. But Rutgers kind of stinks at football, so I'm going to try to temper my expectations here. 

Statistically, just about every aspect of this Huskies game was solid. Here are the nitpicky things that I see that could have been better:
  • Jake Browning threw an interception. There, that one was easy. 
  • Darrell Daniels dropped a touchdown pass. That's not good. 
  • John Ross caught two touchdowns and ran a kick back for a third, but didn't score any touchdowns on punt returns. There's some room for improvement in his game. 
  • Rutgers' quarterback is from Long Island and the Huskies only picked him off one time. 
This was a really tough exercise. Ross didn't score on a punt return because he doesn't return punts. Yeah, they only got one interception, but Brandon Beaver ran it back 46 yards and they scored on the next play. 

Washington looks good, and they're going to have to crush Idaho and Portland State the next two weeks if we're going to keep that good feeling going into the Arizona-Stanford-Oregon portion of the schedule. 

Confidence Level: Pretty Gosh Darn High

Florida State 45, Ole Miss 34

I wrote this game off just before halftime and went to bed. My alarm at 6:15 comes early, and I figured 28-6 was basically sheets for FSU last night and for the season.

And then, magic happened. 

Touchdown. Field goal. Touchdown, touchdown, touchdown. Three more field goals in the fourth quarter sealed the deal, and somehow Florida State is not dead today. 

Freshman Deondre Francois threw for 400 yards and no interceptions, boom that's what we need from him. 

Future Heisman Winner Dalvin Cook ran for just 91 yards and was help out of the end zone, but he chipped in with 100 receiving yards. With Dalvin, you know he's going to get featured somehow. Totaling almost 200 yards against the most stout defense he'll face all year is a great place to start his Heisman campaign. 

The 'Nole defense picking off Chad Kelly three times was enormous, and really that defense in the third quarter allowed them to mount their comeback. 

And, last but not least, Ricky "Sticky Icky" Aguayo was 3/3 on extra points and 6/6 on field goals. If you had the kid in Fanduel, you ended up with 16 points and that was probably enough for you to win. 

Oh and Clemson only scored 19 points to sneak a win away from Auburn. 

Confidence Level: Pretty Gosh Darn High

Tuesday, February 16, 2016

2016 Grammys Recap

I was not thrilled with out last night played out. If you recall, our bet slip was:

Album of the Year 1989 (-250)
Best New Artist James Bay (+200)
Record of the Year Blank Space (+600)
Record of the Year Can't Feel My Face (+600)
Song of the Year See You Again (+700)

Selena Gomez, left, and Taylor Swift

Things That Were Good
  • Chris Stapleton won his first Grammy! I love that guy
  • Taylor Swift won album of the year for 1989
  • Justin Bieber is fucking amazing, feel free to @ me
  • Josh Groban is still alive
Josh Groban

Things That Were Bad
  • Every other bet we made lost
  • James Bay lost Best New Artist to Meghan Trainor, who has been releasing music of her own since 2009 (I was still legally unable to drive past 9pm by myself at that point)
  • Record of the year went to Bruno Mars for his blatant plagiarism of Trinidad James, which is a bad precedent to set for the future of music in my opinion
  • Ellie Goulding's lip injection obviously ran into some sort of complications
  • The Fast And The Furious was snubbed by yet another mainstream awards show, SMH
  • Why couldn't the Adele microphone fuckup have happened to literally anyone else? Adele handled it so well. I would have much rather seen someone throw a fit on stage in front of millions of people
  • I don't know how most people felt about Lady Gaga's tribute to David Bowie, but I hated it
  • Who invited this fucking guy?
Nick and Vanessa Lachey

Friday, February 5, 2016

Bruins Recap: YOFBP Take-Two

Two days later and we find ourselves in a similar situation: hockey, beers, gambling and Shrek the Musical. Jay had a family obligation tonight but that didn’t stop us from plating Ye Olde Flyers-Bruins Parlay.

A quick (and discouraging) stat that Jay put together: If you took a Flyers-Bruins parlay on every available night this season, you’d end up with a 3-21 record. So what did we do? Threw a little bit on the Bruins moneyline and threw a little on YOFBP.

















A few notes before getting to the Bs game:

On the Road Again

The Bruins find themselves where they have been most successful this season: anywhere but TD Garden. With an absolutely brutal home record of 11-13-3, the Bruins are no longer feared on their home ice. After boasting a combined 45-17-10 home record the past two seasons, the Bruins just can’t seem to get it done at home as was evident by yet another blown lead against the Leafs Tuesday night. Luckily, the Sabres haven’t exactly been giving their fans a reason to drink (happily, at least) while playing in Buffalo, posting a 9-15-2 record at home coming into tonight.

Road Rules (RIP Dave Mirra)

Tonight is the first of a home-and-home between these two teams with the second game being played on Saturday in Boston. The Bruins’ consistency will be tested in the coming month after this home-and-home. After Saturday’s home game, the Bruins go on a six game roadtrip, including an important divisional faceoff with the Wings and a tough matchup against our scorned lover and the Dallas Stars. But what’s crazier is that starting with the Leafs game last Tuesday, the Bruins will not have consecutive days off until March 13th. The good news is that last time the Bs played Buffalo, they entered on a dismal 2-7-1 stretch, came out victorious, and went on to go 5-1 in their next six including three road wins.











Tonight’s Action

Right as the puck dropped, it seemed the Bruins were set out to forget the disappointment of Tuesday night. The boys came out with their skating legs and set the pace through the first few shifts. Kevan Miller even did another good hockey thing and laid the absolute boom on Jamie McGinn. Couldn’t find a gif but take my word for it, McGinn will be feeling that one. But as we all know, Kevan giveth, Kevan taketh away. Because the next goal came on a miscommunication between Pastrnak and K. Miller around the offensive blue line. After seeing the replay, it was Miller’s puck and he should’ve stepped up. But indecisiveness is a real bitch, and Evander Kane took advantage of it like a drunk bar chick. An odd man rush led to pure chaos in front of Rask and the Sabres opened up the scoring.

The Bruins would have a powerplay chance in the first period, but 2-23 on the PP in their last eight games is starting to make me feel like Chicken Little. I don’t think anything has to necessarily change in terms of strategy, the powerplay unit is just not getting the bounces and missing the net at an alarming rate. Krug is still doing what has made the Bruins’ powerplay so good this season by finding space off the puck on the weak side, but I can’t tell if he’s trying to shatter the glass in a Napoleon Complex kind of way or if he’s just missing.

Second Period in Buffalo

I would really like to know what the hell Claude said to this team during the first break because Buffalo came out and scored 47 seconds into the second period. The goal made its way through Rask thanks to a beauty of a deflection by Reinhart. But wait- 47 seconds into the period? Deflection in front of the net? Shouldn’t Chara be out there??? Well….he was. But for a second straight game, the Bruins defense concedes valuable territory to the opponent, screening Rask and allowing a goal. Mind you Sam Reinhart is 6’1/189.

The response by the Bruins told you everything you need to know: I can’t figure this team out at all. They have been so inconsistent and I wouldn’t have been surprised if the team rolled over after a few unfortunate bounces and some quick scoring by the Sabres. But who else to turn it around than my boy Spoons. About a minute after Reinhart put his team up two, the Bruins go to work in the dirty area of the offensive zone which leads to shooting space for Krug. Both Belleskey and Spooner were giving Chad Johnson fits in front of the net on this sequence, and Spooner was able to put away the rebound courtesy of a KrugBomb for his 11th on the season.


The All-Elusive Third Period

The Bruins opened up the third by killing a Zdeno tripping penalty. Coming off the kill, Marchand sensed confusion in the Sabres’ line change and took full advantage. It seems like Marchand does something like this at least once every game: circles around the neutral zone sizing up his victims and then showcasing the dangles through the offensive zone. Tonight was no different. Let’s just admire this:


There wasn’t much action outside of March’s 23rd and game tying goal.

Expensive Hockey

The overtime period consisted of a powerplay for each team which made for some exciting hockey. No goal scored but we saw another wizard-like slap pass from Krejci at the blue-line to Bergeron at the goalmouth. Which led to this…


Spoons

All you have to know is that nobody scored in the shootout except, you guessed it, Spooner. Entering the zone with speed, Spooner opened up his skates once he got close enough, turning Chad Johnson’s brain into mush and:





















Aftermath

Jay was singing Smashmouth at the Shrek Musical so unfortunately, we won’t get a Flyers recap. But they went down to Nashville, bent over Dierks Bentley, and won 6-3. $Money Dance$.

The Bruins struggled on the man-advantage again tonight going 0-4 and only generating 7 shots on net. Again, I think a lot of it has to do with unfortunate bounces and just missing the net all together, but the Bs have to turn this back around if they hope to see the playoffs come spring.

Connolly had a few juicy chances in the slot tonight. This is where Connolly had made a name for himself with Tampa because of his insane snapshot but on both of these chances, Connolly's shots were deflected away by Johnson. At this point, I can’t tell if he’s snakebitten or just sucks.

Also, this:


That’s eight goals in eight games for March. Guy is making $4.5M this year.

The camera was focused on Rask in between overtime and shootout and the fans at home got to see Spooner picking Rask’s brain. I loved this. Chad Johnson was a backup for Tuukka in 2013, so Spooner trying to get an edge on his tendencies was awesome to see.


You dog..





















With tonight’s win, the Bruins find themselves 3rd in the Atlantic with 60 points. The Bruins will look to sweep the season series in Boston on Saturday while the Flyers host the Rags for a Saturday matinee. #FTR

Wednesday, February 3, 2016

Recap: Ye Olde Flyers-Bruins Parlay

(Warning: This post got away from us. We have a lot of thoughts about our favorite hockey teams, and this is quite a long read. It’s a review of the games last night, and sort of a glimpse into the Bruins and Flyers for those of you who don’t follow religiously.)

There is a three-step recipe for turning a lame Tuesday night in February into a somewhat enjoyable Tuesday night in February:
  1. Hockey
  2. Gambling
  3. Beers 
Simple, right? And when you can share that experience with a friend, it's even better. Last night, the Bruins hosted the Maple Leafs and the Flyers hosted the Canadiens. So we parlayed the B's and Fly's, threw up our middle fingers to Canada, and Ye Olde Flyers-Bruins Parlay was born.

A few things to note before getting to the games:

Loui v. Broons

There have been a bunch of rumors popping up over the past few weeks about negotiations between Loui Eriksson and the Bruins. This is going to be a tough one. It was reported that Loui is looking for a deal in the neighborhood of 6 years/$36M. When Don Sweeney heard those numbers, he probably sat back in his big leather chair, rubbed his hands together and said “Let the games begin” (he for sure did not do this).

The Bruins reportedly offered Loui a deal before Christmas but were rejected, as Loui’s camp believed the AAV and length to be unsatisfactory. The report also stated that the Bruins offered this contract as a gesture to get the ball rolling. As the saying goes, you can’t just dive headfirst into home, you gotta wine and dine.

Sweeney basically went on NESN a few weeks back and said that he isn’t interested in overpaying for players that aren’t consistent. He added that if he doesn’t believe the Bruins will resign a player in the offseason, he will look to move him (see Soderberg, Carl). Seeing as Loui has underperformed in his last three seasons, there is no way Sweeney gives him what he’s looking for. Personally, I’d be more comfortable with 4-5 years/$5M. But at 30, Loui is at the age where he is looking for security in the form of a lengthy deal.

The Bruins don’t have much leverage here. This would be a much easier decision if:

  1. Brett Connolly was panning out as planned. But….he’s shit. I can’t stand watching him skate on the first line anymore, but that’s for another rant. Or
  2. There was a decent market to move Loui. But…there’s not. There was a report that the Wild are interested in acquiring Lou-E’s talents, but they don’t seem to be the right fit in terms of a trade partner.

The Bruins only have two Top-6 wingers on their roster (Brad Marchand and Loui). With Pastrnak’s development hindered by injuries so far this year, the Bruins are in desperate need of resigning Loui.

Flyer Free Agents

The Flyers don’t have any contracts expiring this summer that are quite as vital as Loui Eriksson. The only unrestricted-free-agent-to-be is Michael Raffl, who might fetch about half of Loui’s desired money. He’s a useful possession winger with enough size and offensive talent to contribute anywhere in the team’s top nine. He also seems to be a great locker room guy, and from my point of view I think he’s a great presence. That said, I really don’t want to overpay him.

The most I think about it, the more similarities I see between Raffl’s situation and Eriksson’s. Of course both teams would like to keep their European wingers around, but there is probably someone in the league who will overpay. The Bruins might have to overpay because they’re looking to compete now. The Flyers have the luxury of not being forced into paying Raffl - might they even move him before the end of the month?

Smaller pieces like Ryan White, Jordan Weal, Radko Gudas, Brandon Manning, and Nick Cousins all figure to be re-signed at decent-value contracts. Sam Gagner is unrestricted and will probably walk this summer if he’s not shipped out before then. There isn’t a whole lot of noise to be made about this group.

There is, however, the curious case of Brayden Schenn. He’s obviously due a raise on his $2.5 million, and he’s playing like the kind of top-six winger that would deserve almost double that much. I would hope he sees his place here for the better part of the next decade - right next to Sean Couturier - and takes a hometown discount. And if an offer sheet from another team comes into the equation, the salary will result in that team sending a first- and third-round draft pick back as compensation.

Pasta Night
David Pastrnak was in the Boston lineup last night after spending the All-Star break in Providence (3GP/1G/3A). Pastrnak is looking to forget a first half of the season that was plagued by a fractured foot that cost him two months of ice time.

To be honest, I was less than thrilled to see him playing in Helsinki with the Czechs. But since his return to the Bs, he’s scored three goals and two assists in eight games. We know the kid has it in him - 37 points (10G/17A) last season in 46 games at 18 years old is no joke. He just has to stay healthy (and crash the net when he’s not scoring- see CBJ game).

Party In The Streets! Umberger's Out!

After one full, complete, 365-day calendar year of not scoring a goal - including half a dozen blown high-danger scoring chances over the past two weeks - Flyers coach Dave Hakstol finally decided to bench RJ Umberger.

Hak inserted Sam Gagner on the Sean Couturier line with Brayden Schenn, bumping Michael Raffl down to Umberger's usual spot with Scott Laughton and Matt Read. We'll talk more about the line combinations - and options going forward - later, but seeing Umberger's name in the Healthy Scratch box is always going to make me happy.

Now, to the actual on-ice action:

First Period in Boston

After a week off for the squads (aside from Bergy), the Bs came out flat early. The first three minutes were spent in the defensive zone, no thanks to Patrice’s absence during the first shift due to a lost tooth (not confirmed, but he took a puck to the face and immediately went down the tunnel)...he was back for his next shift.

The fourth line helped turn things around during their first call with some serious forechecking by Talbot and Rinaldo. I think it has to be said that Rinaldo has been a pretty solid fourth liner for the Bruins this year. And by said, I mean I whispered that so nobody heard me. I hate to admit it, but the guy hasn’t done too much to live up to the Bertuzzi-esque reputation. He’s done what successful Bruins’ fourth-liners have done in the past: play as hard as possible in the few minutes you get.

Anyways, we can just forget I said any of that and move on. Boston’s been able to prove the doubters wrong by staying in the top spot in Power Play efficiency for most of the season (25.9%), and they now sit second in the league, behind only the Washington Capitals (26.8%). Not terrible company. It didn’t take long to see the power play and they looked good in their first chance, moving the puck well and getting a few chances. This momentum led to a goal soon after their man-advantage expired.

It seems like Jimmy Hayes listened to the Bruins faithful that have been yelling “SHOOT!” at their TV screens every game. I get that Hayes’ game is to be a big body, screen and collect goals from in front. But he’s a big body, aka he can shoot the puck hard. We’ve seen him start to shoot from higher up in the slot, and even score a few. Tonight, on a furious-looking three-man-rush, Jimmy threw a shot on goal that rebounded perfectly to Brad Marchand. Marchand was in the perfect spot to score his 21st of the season, and he has scored at least 20 goals in all five of his full-length seasons since joining the League in 2010. Not bad for a dirtbag.

Boston controlled the pace for the majority of the first period, with the Bs missing a few juicy chances. One of which came on the power play on an ingenious (shout out Evan Turner) feed from Spooner to Bergy in the high slot. Patrice wasn’t able to settle the puck but was all alone.

That being said, Spooner is that dude. He had five SOG and created a ton of scoring chances for his line and the power play. Claude needs to stop trying to be Rainman and leave Spooner as the third-line centerman. He has been unreal this year and is one of the main reasons the Bruins found themselves in a playoff spot come the halfway point. Spooner has 36 points (10G/26A) in 49 games and leads the team in assists after recently passing the perennial assist leader, Bergeron. The thought of him developing into a Top-2 center while the Bs have Bergy and Krejci is erection-inducing. Spooner has been by far the most fun player to watch this season because of his creativity whenever he enters the offensive zone. The guy puts on a show and can make even some of the older guys in the league look like they have two left skates.

First Period in Philly

An All-Star first line center returning from Nashville, an aggressive fourth line that doesn’t get as much love as they should, and powerplay success resulting in a lead after the first period? It’s like the TVs were mirroring each other.

But while the Bruins’ early goal came from a smart play on the rush, both Flyers’ goals were products of Jake Voracek quarterbacking the powerplay unit. He fed two beautiful passes to Brayden Schenn, who dished one off to Wayne Simmonds and potted the other for himself. The powerplay has had its struggles - which can be equal parts surprising and frustrating to watch - but the boys in orange made it look like child’s play last night.

And then, in typical Flyers fashion, they allowed the Habs to climb back with a powerplay goal with under two minutes remaining in the first. Given how this season is going, I’ll never complain about a lead after the first. But it would be so refreshing to see them play a complete period just one time.

Something else that needs to be mentioned is the Wells Fargo’s constant, incessant, ridiculous booing of PK Subban. It’s not just when he dives or interferes or scores - it’s all the goddamn time. I am under the impression that it dates back to the Mike Richards era, but at this point it just makes us all look like assholes. My unofficial “Boo This Man” list is pretty short: Crosby, Kane. On a game-by-game basis, obviously we can boo other people too. But I don’t understand how this city can have that level of hatred for one of the most likable guys in the league.

Second Period in Boston

Toronto equalized midway in the second when Tuukka Rask had a puck take a rough bounce off a screen. It fell right on the stick of a guy who has scored two goals in 31 games and I don’t really want to talk about it. The Bruins didn’t seem to control the pace as much in the second and it only felt like the third line was bringing any intensity. If there has been one major character flaw in this year’s Bruins, it’s been a lack of consistency, and it was evident during the second period last night. Let's just skip that and move right on to the third.

Second Period in Philly

We were in good shape in both game after the first periods. The second periods kind of cratered. Within about fifteen minutes, Daniel Winnick equalized for Toronto and Jeff Perty equalized for Montreal. I started to question the unit cost of a Heineken and wonder if it was still in my budget.

I’ll follow Alex’s lead here and say let’s just skip right to the third periods.

The Song Remains the Same

My oh my, what a goal to start the third. After some serious forecheck board-work by Pasta in the corner, Krejci wizardly slap-passed to Marchand, who was waiting weak-side to put away his second of the game.
On the rush following the faceoff, Torey Krug rung one off the post which led to a scrum in front and resulted in a goal for Krejci. This was all set up by forechecking and net presence. On Krejci’s goal, both Krejci and Loui were crashing the net, causing mass chaos among the Leafs’ d-men and Bernier not being able to cover. This is what we want. This is what we need.

Wayne Simmonds scored his second of the night off yet another beautiful pass from Voracek, but the big story of the third period in Philly was the referees. Following a Subban cross-check to the back of Simmonds, Jake got in PK’s face.
Naturally, because this is Philadelphia, Subban’s initial hit was unpunished and Voracek was penalized for roughing. Jake, your thoughts?
And then, if you can believe it, things got worse. Radko Gudas was called for a phantom Clipping penalty with about seven minutes left in the game. I would include another GIF to keep this visually stimulating blog going, but I can’t because there was nothing that warranted a penalty. Lucas Lessio dumped the puck into the zone from center ice, took a hit from Gudas, and stayed down on the ice. He wasn’t concussed, or dead, or bleeding, but getting hit by Radko Gudas hurts. And then like a minute later, the whistle blew, Gudas was ejected, and the Habs were awarded a 5-minute power play to try to tie the game.
I don’t quite know how to describe what happened next. I’m assuming the whole team blacked out, because the Flyers’ usually questionable penalty kill held strong for the entire five minutes. Nobody was trapped on the ice for an unreasonable amount of time, the passing and shooting lanes were appropriately covered, and Team Dad Matt Read sniped the empty net in the final minute to put the nail in the coffin.

The Flyers win and leapfrog the Habs, and are sitting pretty in 5th place in the Wild Card. Last I checked, the Bruins were up by a pair of goals in the third. Let’s get this money so I can do some late-night Amazon-dot-com-ing.

Let me just flip my GameCenter Live back on to check on that other game....

But wait! Guess what! The Bruins blew a third period, multi-goal lead. The defense had more than a few brutal sequences, including the minute leading up to Komarov’s 17th goal of the season. Rask was hung out to dry more than a few times and the Bruins continued to let him down as Kadri scored the game tying goal soon after. All three of the Leafs’ goals came on screened shots from the blue line. You just hate to see that. You also hate to see literally anything good happen to Nazem Kadri.

So, overtime. We can live with that. The Bruins were a reasonable 4-5 in games decided after regulation, and everyone knows that the Maple Leafs are trying to tank their way to the top of the draft board. We’re good. No worries. Except the Leafs unveiled their new logo tonight and it is admittedly awesome. Maybe this gave them a boost (prob not but I’m running out of excuses for this Bruins team).
Overtime is normally called “free hockey”- this game was anything but. And after a nonsense holding penalty called on David Krejci, the Leafs converted on the man advantage and won the game. And we lost.
With both Detroit and Tampa idle, the Bruins had a chance to jump into 2nd in the Atlantic with two points. But the Bruins are the Bruins and the one point OTL leaves them tied with Detroit and Tampa at 58 points. The Lightning host the Wings Wednesday night.

A Few Quick Bruins Notes

Torey Krug is electric on the power play. This has been evident all season, and last, but you just can’t take your eyes of Krug when the Bs are a man up. While Torey isn’t a top 4 defenseman at even strength, his skillset absolutely shines on the man advantage. A few heavy slappers led to some real scoring chances during this game and I’m looking for the Bruins to remain towards the top of the PP% rankings for the rest of the season.

After spending the past few weeks of Colin Miller being a healthy scratch, we saw Claude Julien scratch Joe Morrow and insert C. Miller into the second D pairing. Be careful what you wish for.

Colin looked uncomfortable handling the puck along the blue-line and cost the Bruins a few offensive possessions. I’m guessing this was just a case of rust, because in his limited time this season, Miller has definitely showed that he should stay in that second pairing. Also, Kevan Miller didn’t look horrible. I know, it’s like bizzaro world where K. and C. Miller just swapped abilities. K. Miller made some plays on both ends of the ice tonight and that’s all you can really ask from a guy who spells Kevan with an “a” (and does things like this).


The Bruins look to escape their home-ice struggles as they travel to Buffalo to face Eichel and the Sabres on Thursday, and the Flyers will travel to Nashville to face the Predators. We'll see you on Friday morning, and hopefully we’ll be less poor than we are today.

Tuesday, November 3, 2015

Monday Night Recap: Colts @ Panthers

Last night's game turned out to be a lot more exciting than I had imagined. I was thinking the Panthers' defense was going to stifle to the Colts all game, and they did up until the fourth quarter. Indy's first four drives of the game were a fumble, an interception, and two punts. Indy's final drive of the game ended in an interception (which immediately led to the game-winning field goal).

The game was exciting enough on its own, but everyone knows it's even more fun when you have a little action. Here's how we made out:

First Half Total Under 23 Points -115 (Win)
Easy. Panther field goal, Panther touchdown, Colt field goal, Colt field goal. I didn't expect there to be four scores of any kind, but three of the four being field goals matches up perfectly with the stats behind this bet.

First Score Of The Game: Carolina Touchdown +130 (Loss)
When the Colts fumbled the ball at their own 20 yard line, I expected Cam and the boys to be able to punch it in and crush this bet. Instead, they ran for 3 yards and threw 2 incompletions, then kicked a field goal. That stunk.

Frank Gore To Score A Touchdown +125 (Loss)
Coby Fleener To Score A Touchdown +250 (Win)
I have to pat myself on the back here, I nailed Fleener. The Panthers have had trouble with big receivers, and he was the most likely guy to fill that role. Looking back, I should have also considered Andre Johnson (6'3"), because he also scored.

Jonathan Stewart To Score A Touchdown -125 (Win)
Cam Newton To Score A Touchdown +100 (Win)
Greg Olsen To Score A Touchdown +110 (Win)
Ted Ginn To Score A Touchdown +150 (Loss)
I was trying to find a GIF or a Vine of Ted Ginn's drop from last night that would have ended up being a touchdown. I couldn't find it (I didn't look too hard, to be honest), but I did see a million links to other horrible drops. Keep that in mind next time you want to risk your money on him.

Panthers -7 (Loss)
My rationale behind picking the Cats last night was the following Vegas lines: Luck to throw an interception -275 (preposterously high, but he went and threw 3 last night), Luck over 2 touchdowns +110 (it's tough to win as a team like the Colts if you don't throw more than 2 touchdowns), and the Team Totals for Indy (20) and Carolina (29).

Last night: 5-4
Monday Nights: 23-28
Thursday Nights: 12-14-2
Ultimately, the Panthers failed to cover because Cam Newton wasn't good enough. I don't know if that counts as a hot take or not, but he put up fraud numbers. Compare his traditional stats to Luck:

  • Luck: 23/47, 231 yards (4.9 yards per attempt), 2 touchdowns, 3 interceptions
  • Newton: 16/35, 248 yards (7.1 yards per attempt), 2 touchdowns, 1 interception
When you get into advanced stats (I don't even really know if QB Rating counts as advanced because it's just based on those traditional numbers), Newton outplayed Luck 76.8 to 50.9. 

But when you get into QBR - which is actually at least a little advanced because we're now factoring in the likelihood of scoring points and winning games - Luck was a pretty terrible 34.8. Newton was even worse, at 33.9. 

Maybe Cam can ride his defense to some success this season like he's done so far. But Carolina's 7-0 has come against these guys:
  • Jaguars (2-5, -60 point differential)
  • Texans (3-5, -31)
  • Saints (4-4, -21)
  • Buccaneers (3-4, -36)
  • Seahawks (4-4, +27, third place in the NFC West)
  •  Eagles (3-4, +23, third place in the NFC East)
  • Colts (3-5, -30)
This is a fraud team, and the Packers -2 at Carolina is a steal next week. I love betting on a good team that just got smacked, and I love betting against an overrated team. I may bet my car on GB next weekend. 

Monday, October 26, 2015

Thursday Night Football Recap: Seahawks @ 49ers

Sorry to make you wait so long for this recap. I was out of the office Friday because I wanted to be out of the office. Also because I'm getting sick and I sound like a dead person.

Busy day today: we'll start by recapping Thursday, I'll toss in some gripes about FSU blowing up a teaser, and then we'll make some money in the Cardinals game tonight.

But first, we have to look to the past:

Teaser: Seahawks -1 and Over 36.5 (Loss)
The Forty-Niners did not hold up their end of the bargain, and they finished the game with just 3 points. Colin Kaepernick's QBR was 9.0. Single digits! Obviously we should have just bet the Seattle spread because they covered the -7 easily.

Colin Kaepernick To Score A Touchdown (Loss)
Just a quick reminder that the prop could have been "Colin Kaepernick's Team To Score A Touchdown" and it still would have been a loss.

Jimmy Graham To Score A Touchdown (Loss)
I maintain that this was a good value bet at +120, but Seattle's two touchdowns went to Marshawn Lynch and Tyler Lockett. Graham was targeted 5 times and caught 2 passes for 31 yards.

Fuck me!

Thursday night: 0-3
Thursday Nights: 12-14-2
Monday Nights: 17-20

Tuesday, October 20, 2015

Monday Night Recap: Giants @ Eagles

This is the reaction from Eagles Legend Ron "Jaws" Jaworski to the game last night:
As negative as you could possibly be about a quarterback who just "led" his team to a 27-7 win. I put led in quotes because in all honestly this team was led by the defensive line. But you don't come here for in-depth analysis of the defensive line, you come for sketchy pseudo-analysis of player props:

Eagles -4 (Win)
As noted above, the game was not particularly close.

Sam Bradford Passing Yards Over 275.5 (Win)
To be honest I would have taken him over like 300 yards because I really expected him to torch the Giants. But he was missing his receivers all night, and there were very few times he looked like a legit NFL quarterback. But again, you don't come to me for actual analysis, you come to hear me tell you that he ended the game with 280 yards. Cha-ching!

Sam Bradford Touchdown Passes Over 1.5 (Loss)
He only threw one, but he did throw three interceptions.

Darren Sproles To Score A Touchdown (Loss)
There was not nearly enough Sproles last night. He had 2 carries for 4 yards and 1 catch for 3 yards. On Brian Westbrook night, I expected some noise in the return game. He returned 4 punts, but his longest went for just 13 yards.

Eli Manning To Throw An Interception (Win)
I think my new strategy is going to be parlaying both quarterbacks to throw an interception. In every game that doesn't feature Brady or Rodgers, it seems like both QB's always toss at least one each. Last night Eli threw 2 and Bradford threw 3.

Shane Vereen Receiving Yards Over 39.5 (Loss)
Did Vereen even play last night? What the fuck, man. He ended with 1 catch and 6 yards,

Rashad Jennings Over 2 Receptions (Win)
The lock of the night was a winner again, but it wasn't easy. Rashad was only targeted 3 times so he had to catch all 3, and he did. His first catch went for 6 yards, then he fumbled and gave the ball back to the Eagles (but it counts!). And then, in the fourth quarter, on the final Giants possession of the game, down by three touchdowns, Jennings came up big and caught 2 meaningless passes to go over his total.

Last night: 4-3
Monday nights: 17-20
Thursday nights: 12-11-2

We're crawling back up to the black. I'll see you guys on Thursday.

Sunday, October 18, 2015

Recap: College Football Week 7

We had a lot of action across the board yesterday, and there were a bunch of games that went exactly like we predicted (pats self on back). There were also a few that we missed on... badly.

Florida State -7 (Win)
Ho hum, Florida State keeps marching toward the only two games on their schedule that matter: at Clemson on November 7th and at Florida November 28th.

Baylor -21.5 (Win)
The Bears are a really legitimate team, because they're going to be able to outscore everybody until they have to play an elite SEC or Big Ten defense.

Purdue +23.5 (Win)
On what planet is losing 24-7 ever a good thing?

Northwestern +2 (Loss)
I wrote a One Sentence Preview basically just blindly supporting the Wildcats. They got smoked by Iowa - so maybe it's best to do a little bit of research before betting? That's a strategy we should try sometime.

Texas Tech -32.5 (Loss)
The Raiders only beat lowly Kansas by 10 points, but the nice thing about losing that bet is we'll get a ton of points next week in their game against Oklahoma and we'll also be able to win on Kansas getting creamed by Oklahoma State. So we're losing one bet this week to win two next week - that's like a gambling 401(k).

Michigan -7 (Loss)
What can I say about this game that hasn't already been said? The ending of that game hurts a lot more in the "Tease Bag" section of this post, but Holy Christ that was a bad way to end a game. The Wolverines had a 99.8% chance to win, and they fucking blew it.

Alabama -4 (Win) and Over 54  (Win)
These two should have been co-locks of the week, but having three locks of the week kind of defeats the purpose. Alabama blew past Texas A&M and the game blew past the total. Easy.

Boston College +16.5 (Loss)
When I actually placed this, it had moved to 17 (which would have been a push). But I'm an honorable man and I'm going to take the loss here. I really thought BC's defensive success against everyone they had played would translate. But nope, Clemson put up 34.

Penn State +17.5 (Loss)
Ohio State kicked the crap out of them. Whoops.

Utah -6 (Lock of the week) (Win)
I was drunk at the bar and nervous that they weren't going to take care of business, but the Utes had a really strong fourth quarter and it made the steak at Sonny's that much tastier.

Oregon +3 (Win) and Moneyline (Win)
I didn't watch a second of this game, but Oregon beats Washington every time. That was an easy end to the day.

Tease Bag: Florida State (Win), Ole Miss (Loss), Michigan (Loss), LSU (Win)

Who Would Be In The Playoff If The Season Ended This Week
This is a new feature I decided to toss in here now, because we've seen the ups and downs of every team and we have a pretty good idea of who should be competing for the national championship.

1: Baylor
2: Alabama
3: Utah
4: Ohio State
First four out: the winner of FSU/Clemson, TCU, Michigan State, LSU

Is it too late to expand the playoff to eight teams?

Tuesday, October 13, 2015

Monday Night Recap: Steelers @ Chargers

I'm going to be honest with you guys. I kind of mailed it in yesterday. One of the drawbacks of trying to blog about player props two nights a week from your desk at work is that you are doing it from your desk at work. Boss over shoulder, phone ringing, meetings with HR telling me to stop using the computer for personal use, the distractions are endless.

And yesterday I basically picked the line, the over, and the "To Score A Touchdown" props for seven players. And I got killed, final score Pittsburgh 24, San Diego 20:

Chargers -4 (Loss)
They let Phil Rivers throw the ball 48 times and he was only able to orchestrate 2 touchdown drives. Late game heroics from Bell aside, Rivers needed to put up more than 20 points. And he did not.

Over 46 (Loss)
See above.

Le'Veon Bell (Win)
San Diego had a 3 point lead at the end so it wasn't going to be a cover anyway, but Bell running it in as time expired for the win (from the Wildcat, no less) was a real kick in the dick. We didn't cover, we missed the over by 2 points, and the touchdown payout here was -175.

DeAngelo Williams (Loss)
Hey Jay, you idiot! There's a reason he was +450 to score a goddamn touchdown last night!

Antonio Brown (Loss)
Darrius Heyward-Bey (Loss)
Mike Vick only completed 13 passes, and 3 of them went to Bell. The Steelers' leading receiver last night was Markus Wheaton, who had the lone touchdown despite catching just one pass.

Melvin Gordon (Loss)
Melvin led the team in rushing attempts and was second in receptions but couldn't get into the end zone. Typical move from a guy named Melvin, and I should have known better.

Keenan Allen (Loss)
This one stings.

Antonio Gates (Win)
Let's end on a high note! (Puts bag on head)

Last night: 2-7
Thursday nights: 12-11-2
Monday nights: 13-17

Friday, October 2, 2015

Thursday Night Recap: Ravens @ Steelers

We expected a gross, AFC North-style game last night, and boy did we get it. Both teams ran the ball more often than they threw it, which is almost unheard of in the modern NFL.

But as far as our ticket from last night goes, that was alright with me.


Steelers +3 (Push)
Teaser: Steelers +10 and Under 51 (Win)
These should have both been wins, but Pittsburgh sort of blew it at the end of the game. Here's some hard-hitting football analysis: when you are leading 20-7 halfway through the third quarter, you should win the game.

First Scoring Play: Field Goal or Safety (Win)
On a completely random bet like this, you just have to get lucky.

Joe Flacco To Throw An Interception (Win)
Mike Vick To Throw An Interception (Loss)
Take that, racists!

Le'Veon Bell To Score A Touchdown (Win)
Antonio Brown To Score A Touchdown (Loss)
Steve Smith To Score A Touchdown (Loss)
I was expecting 4-5 touchdowns to go around, and I expected these three (or at least two of them) to be the recipients. Bell got his, and he got 129 yards rushing and 21 yards receiving as well. Brown was targeted on about a third of Vick's 26 pass attempts, but he only caught 5 passes. Smith only caught 4 passes, as Flacco spread the ball around to 9 different receivers.

Justin Forsett Rushing Yards Over 49.5 (Win)
I don't know if I've ever seen any player in any sport cover their total three times over. Forsett went for 150 yards last night. So that was pretty fucking sweet.

Total Sacks In The Game Over 4.5 (Win)
The Ravens had 4 sacks and the Steelers had 5. This was, as advertised, a gross game. But how can you be mad about it when you load up on props that pay you for watching a gross game?

Last night: 6-3-1
Thursday nights: 12-11-2
Monday nights: 11-10

And I'll say it again, fuck the NFC East.

Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Monday Night Football Recap: Chiefs @ Packers

Obligatory, because I heaped on praise yesterday and he absolutely killed it.
I went very heavy on the Packers yesterday, because they have been the class of the NFC for about as long as I can remember. And the Chiefs are led by Andy Reid and Alex Smith, who are generally bad.


Green Bay +7 (Win)
Three minutes into the fourth quarter, Green Bay scored to go up 38-14. Game over, cover not in question, no worries. 

Then Alex Smith marched 89 yards down the field and scored to cut it to a 2 possession game with about ten minutes left. Then he did it again with a minute and a half left, but they missed the extra point to leave it at a ten point deficit. 

We've been crushed enough to know what was coming: onside kick, meaningless touchdown, Packers kneel the ball to win the game but not cover the spread. 

But nope, Green Bay went 3-and-out but took enough time off the clock to close it out. 

Total Points Over 49.5 (Win)
This over was a product of Smith doing what was expected and Rodgers exceeding expectations.  


It's also a product of Jamaal Charles rushing for three (!!) touchdowns, but still losing the game because his quarterback went for a QBR below 20.

Aaron Rodgers Rushing Yards Over 20.5 (Loss)
He finished the game with 2 rushes for 16 yards. Damn. This is my favorite kind of player prop to bet, because it only takes one long run to hit. This just wasn't the night for that to happen.

Alex Smith Rushing Yards Over 17.5 (Win)
Like I just said, it only takes one. Smith finished with 33 rushing yards, but 19 of them came on one attempt in an absolute garbage situation right before the first half ended. You couldn't ask for a dumber way to cover.

Jeremy Maclin Receiving Yards Over 60.5 (Win)
My logic on this bet was "his stats the first two games would lead me to think he's going under, and I can't understand why the line is this high." Well guys, Vegas knows best and J-Mac ended the night with 141 receiving yards (including one for 61 yards, so we had another #OverInOnePlay situation). Sometimes you have to set logic/reasoning aside and just read the line.

Last night: 4-1
Monday nights: 11-10
Thursday nights: 6-8-1

And I will repeat, fuck the NFC East.

Friday, September 25, 2015

Thursday Night Recap: Redskins @ Giants

Guys, I'm sorry. I forgot the Redskins stink. I'll keep this recap short.

Redskins +4 (Loss) 
Redskins Moneyline (Loss)

The Giants pretty much dominated from start to finish, and even though they only won by 11 it was really never in doubt that the moneyline was a bust.

Alfred Morris Rushing Yards Over 61.5 (Loss)

Is 6 carries for 19 yards good? Christ, was this the Redskins or the Eagles?

Eli Manning To Throw An Interception (Loss)
Kirk Cousins To Throw An Interception (Win)

Kirk actually doubled up on INTs last night. Good for him, it's nice to see that kind of fire in a quarterback.

Jordan Reed Over 5 Receptions (Win)

Let's end on a high note. The lock of the night cleared his receptions number with ease (by one, he finished the game with 6 catches).

Fuck the NFC East.

Tuesday, September 22, 2015

Monday Night Football Recap: Jets @ Colts

Jets Colts Football
I stole this from the AP website and I don't know if that's legal?

Gambling, a lot of times, makes you feel like a scumbag. If you are on a losing streak, the act of wagering any money at all really makes you question what you are doing with your life. 

But if you're in the zone (or even anywhere close to the zone), then gambling is the best goddamn activity in the whole world. Last night's ticket:



Jets +7 (-120) (Win)
Jets +3.5 (+120)
Jets Moneyline (+225)
I mentioned each of these at points in the blog last night and based my preference on whether or not T.Y. Hilton played. He did play, so I would have gone with Jets plus a touchdown. But Hilton only managed 4 catches for 45 yards (#RevisIsland) and obviously the moneyline would have been the play. 

Ryan Fitzpatrick Passing Yards Over 210.5 (Win)
Ryan Fitzpatrick Passing Touchdowns Over 1.5 (Win)
The Colts defense stinks. They got torched - or as torched as you can get by Johnny Manziel and one of the McCown brothers - last week against the Browns. This week they got lit up by Fitzpatrick, who threw Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker a combined 15 passes for 198 yards and 2 touchdowns. 

Chris Ivory Rushing Yards Over 74.5 (Loss)
Chris Ivory To Score A Touchdown (Loss)
I did not realize that the Jets were going to split their carries almost right down the middle between Ivory and Bilal Powell. 

*Lock Of The Night* 
Andrew Luck Rushing Yards Over 19.5 (Win)
On a night where one of the league's "elite" quarterbacks finished with a 56.7% completion rate for less than seven yards per attempt and three interceptions, you might have expected him to lose all of his player props. Not the lock of the night, though:

 
I'm going to be honest with you guys. I have no idea how ESPN is counting luck at 24 rushing yards. That ten yard rush to take it from 14 to 24 was called back because of a holding penalty. Andrew, do you know what happened here?


Yeah, neither do I, but I'll take it. 4-2 on the night. 

Bonus Comedic Eagles Reference


Chip Kelly was right for once!