Monday Night Football Preview: Colts @ Panthers

It's a bleak time for us. We can't afford food. We can't afford beer. I have a Blackberry so I can't even drive with Uber (dot com) to make some extra life-changing money. Here's how we've fared so far on weeknight games:

Monday Nights: 18-24
Thursday Nights: 12-14-2

We aren't going to make up 8 wins tonight, but we need some momentum for the second half of the season. That's the logic we're using, and it also applies perfectly to the Philadelphia Eagles. 

Through 7 games, the Colts are a meager 3-4 and have disappointed everyone who considered them a real contender. The Panthers, on the other hand, have blown past expectations and have started the season undefeated through 6 games. 

For tonight's matchup, I'm going to throw out some fun stats to brighten your Monday morning (and then follow it up with some related bets to ruin your Monday night).

Fun Stat #1: In first halves, the Colts have thrown for just 5.6 yards per attempt, 4 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, have a QB rating of just 69.2. They have just 1 first half rushing touchdown and 2 fumbles. In second halves, they've thrown for 7.3 yards per attempt and 10 touchdowns (and 5 interceptions). The rushing attack has also seen a little more success in the second half, but the jump isn't as significant because the Colts stink and are always playing from behind. 

Along the same lines, you would expect Carolina to have more rushing success in the second halves of their victories. They've certainly relied more on the run in second halves (106 attempts to 91 first-half attempts), but they've only scored 1 more touchdown in the second half than the first, and their yards per rush drop from 5.2 in the first half to 3.8 in the second. However, their passing attack improves from 4 touchdowns/5 interceptions/5.9 yards per attempt in the first half to 5 touchdowns/2 interceptions/8.3 yards per attempt in the second. 

The Colts' defense has 5 interceptions in first halves so far, compared to just 2 in the second half. The Panthers' D has 3 in the first half and 6 in the second, which is certainly helped by the fact that they are usually winning (and forcing the other team into obvious passing situations). 

Related Bet #1: First half under 23 (-115). The total for the game is 46 points, so this first half under feels like a steal. 

Fun Stat #2: There is an enormous gap between the payouts for First Score Of The Game:

• Colts Safety (+5000) and Panthers Safety (+5000) aren't going to happen
• Colts Field Goal (+400)
• Panthers Field Goal (+325)
• Colts Touchdown (+300)
• Panthers Touchdown (+130)

Related Bet #2: How more obvious can it be? Vegas knows what's going to happen. Midas whale profit off it - Carolina TD +130, please and thank you. 

Fun Stat #3: The Panthers have allowed just 5 passing touchdowns and 6 rushing touchdowns through 6 games. Vegas expects Andrew Luck to throw 1 or 2 touchdowns, and they expect TY Hilton (and to a slightly lesser extent, Donte Moncrief) to have a big night. 

Frank Gore has all 3 rushing touchdown for Indianapolis this year. Moncrief (5) and Hilton (3) lead the team in receiving touchdowns, and Fleener/Johnson/Dorsett/Allen/Whalen have each caught one. 

Related Bet #3: Gore (+125), Hilton (+125), and Moncrief (+175) are the only bets I'd even consider making on this side. Few running backs have had a lot of success against Carolina, but they've given up touchdowns to Doug Martin, Marshawn Lynch, and Ryan Mathews the past 3 weeks. I wish Gore's prop paid more, but it's a decent bet. 

Teams have been able to have some balanced success against Carolina this year, and they got torched by Vincent Jackson (6'5", 230 pounds) and Jimmy Graham (6'7", 265 pounds). The Colts don't have a wide receiver who fits that mold, but Coby Fleener (+250, 6'6", 251 pounds) seems a likely target if coach Pagano saw the same Box Scores that I did. 

Fun Stat #4: The Colts, on the other hand, have allowed 12 passing touchdowns and 8 rushing touchdowns through 7 games. Vegas expects Cam Newtown to throw more than one touchdown, and they expect Jonathan Stewart and Greg Olsen to have a big night. 

Newton (4) and Stewart (2) have done most of the scoring on the ground, and Mike Tolbert has a touchdown too. Through the air, Ted Ginn (3) and Olsen (3) are the most frequent touchdown scorers. Tolbert, Corey Brown, and Holy Crap Jerrico Cotchery Is Still In The NFL have all also caught one touchdown. 

Related Bet #4: Stewart (-125) and Newton (+100) don't pay as much as you'd like, and you can say the same about Olsen (+110). Even Ted Ginn - who was going to be my Wild Card - pays just +150. I think we have to pick two of those four, but I'm having a tough time deciding so I'm just going to fire away with all four. 

Fun Stat #5: Look at the touchdown props for the Carolina players. Look at Andrew Luck -275 to throw an interception and just +110 to go over 2 touchdowns. Look at the Team Points lines for Indy (20) and Carolina (27). Vegas loves the Panthers tonight, and so do I. 

Related Bet #5: Panthers -7

Monday Night Football Preview: Ravens @ Cardinals

As much as I hate to say it, we are in a bad spot. Two weeks in a row, we had college football teasers blown up by Last Play Of The Game Special Teams Miracles As Time Expires - first Michigan, then Florida State. I can't take any more special teams defense heroics. 

Also we're hemorrhaging money:

Thursday Nights: 12-14-2
Monday Nights: 17-20

So take these bits of advice at your own risk:

Line: Cardinals -9 and Over/Under 49.5

There's a lot to consider with a line that big. For one, the Ravens are 1-5 but have not lost a game by more than 6 points. They have one-possession losses to the Broncos and Bengals, and they beat the Steelers. However, they have losses to the Raiders, Browns, and 49ers. 

On the other side of the field, the Cardinals have blown out the Saints, Bears, 49ers, and Lions by an average of 25.5 points. They lost by 2 to the Rams, and they are coming off a 12 point loss at Pittsburgh. 

I think the best way to attack this is to see how St. Louis and Pittsburgh kept Arizona in check, and then figure out if Baltimore can replicate that. 

The Rams had a very Rams game when they beat the Cardinals 24-22. Nick Foles had just 171 yards, but he threw three touchdowns and zero interceptions. Todd Gurley did the heavy lifting, totaling 146 rushing yards. The biggest thing they did, though, was limiting Carson Palmer and the Cardinals to just one towndown. 

The Steelers also limited Arizona to just one touchdown. Landry Jones and Mike Vick combined for a surprisingly good stat line of 174 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Vick and Le'Veon Bell combined for 135 rushing yards. 

You do not beat the Cardinals by going all "New NFL" on them and trying to throw for 400 yards - just ask Drew Brees, Jay Cutler, and Matt Stafford. You beat them by pounding the ball, chewing up clock, and holding Arizona to field goals instead of touchdowns. 

I might be crazy, but I really like Baltimore here. 

In their Denver game, they held the Broncos to 0 offensive touchdowns, 1 defensive touchdown, and 4 field goals. They couldn't get anything going against Denver's tough defense, and Joe Flacco's 2 interceptions really killed any chance they had of actually winning. 

In their Bengals game, the Ravens got torn up by Andy Dalton. The Red Ginger (or whatever his gay nickname is) had 383 yards and 3 touchdowns, and he also rushed for a touchdown. If Baltimore had made one more stop in the red zone and held Cincy to a field goal, they could have pulled out a win. 

The Pick: Ravens +9 (-110). I think the line is 3-4 points too high, and I think Baltimore is going to be able to keep it close by pounding the ball with Justin Forsett and Javorius Allen.

Now, onto the player props:

The Cards have a running back committee that is led by Chris Johnson (93 carries, 2 touchdowns) but also includes Andre Ellington (16 carries, 2 touchdowns) and David Johnson (21 carries, 3 touchdowns). I really would have liked to take David to score, but Bovada has not made him available. I'm making up my own odds and picking David Johnson To Score A Touchdown (+550). 

On the Baltimore side, my first thought was the entire game is going to go through Forsett. I was thinking about taking him at even money to score, but I'm nervous that he totaled just 56 yards in Baltimore's games against Denver and Cincy. So I'm staying away. 

Kamar Aiken Over 3.5 Receptions (-105) is a tasty bet because he's gone for 5-5-4-3 receptions in the last four games he played. He got at least 7 targets in each of those games, and you have to think the Cardinals will be keying on Steve Smith tonight to try to negate Joe Flacco's first option. 

He's averaging 5.5 catches per game and he had 10 last week, so John Brown Over 4.5 Receptions (-115) sort of feels like stealing. Thanks, Las Vegas! The same goes for Larry Fitzgerald Over 6 Receptions (-140), because Fitz has only caught less than 6 passes once this year, when he caught 5. I think I might make that the lock of the week just so we can all tweet #NiceHandsLarry at each other all night for a good laugh. 

Monday Night Recap: Giants @ Eagles

This is the reaction from Eagles Legend Ron "Jaws" Jaworski to the game last night:

.@jawsespn on Bradford "You cannot turn the ball over and it's become a chronic issue with him."

— 975TheFanatic (@975TheFanatic) October 20, 2015

.@jawsespn on Bradford "He's not sharp right now and I am concerned. It's been 6 games, let's stop the excuses and start playing."

— 975TheFanatic (@975TheFanatic) October 20, 2015

As negative as you could possibly be about a quarterback who just "led" his team to a 27-7 win. I put led in quotes because in all honestly this team was led by the defensive line. But you don't come here for in-depth analysis of the defensive line, you come for sketchy pseudo-analysis of player props:

Eagles -4 (Win)
As noted above, the game was not particularly close.

Sam Bradford Passing Yards Over 275.5 (Win)
To be honest I would have taken him over like 300 yards because I really expected him to torch the Giants. But he was missing his receivers all night, and there were very few times he looked like a legit NFL quarterback. But again, you don't come to me for actual analysis, you come to hear me tell you that he ended the game with 280 yards. Cha-ching!

Sam Bradford Touchdown Passes Over 1.5 (Loss)
He only threw one, but he did throw three interceptions.

Darren Sproles To Score A Touchdown (Loss)
There was not nearly enough Sproles last night. He had 2 carries for 4 yards and 1 catch for 3 yards. On Brian Westbrook night, I expected some noise in the return game. He returned 4 punts, but his longest went for just 13 yards.

Eli Manning To Throw An Interception (Win)
I think my new strategy is going to be parlaying both quarterbacks to throw an interception. In every game that doesn't feature Brady or Rodgers, it seems like both QB's always toss at least one each. Last night Eli threw 2 and Bradford threw 3.

Shane Vereen Receiving Yards Over 39.5 (Loss)
Did Vereen even play last night? What the fuck, man. He ended with 1 catch and 6 yards,

Rashad Jennings Over 2 Receptions (Win)
The lock of the night was a winner again, but it wasn't easy. Rashad was only targeted 3 times so he had to catch all 3, and he did. His first catch went for 6 yards, then he fumbled and gave the ball back to the Eagles (but it counts!). And then, in the fourth quarter, on the final Giants possession of the game, down by three touchdowns, Jennings came up big and caught 2 meaningless passes to go over his total.

Last night: 4-3
Monday nights: 17-20
Thursday nights: 12-11-2

We're crawling back up to the black. I'll see you guys on Thursday.

Monday Night Football Preview: Giants @ Eagles

If you follow these Thursday Night/Monday Night previews and recaps, you know I've had a bad stretch of picking NFC East games. It's part of the reason I'm just 12-11-2 on Thursday nights and 13-17 on Monday nights. (Another part of it is I got absolutely creamed with last week's Steelers-Chargers game.)

But we're turning the ship around tonight, just like Chip and Sam and the Birds are turning it around. The march for the playoffs started last week against the lowly Saints, and it continues tonight against a decidedly mediocre Giants team.

The G-men are allowing opposing quarterbacks to average 304.2 passing yards per game, 1.6 touchdowns per game, 1.0 interceptions per game. That group includes Tony Romo and Matt Ryan, but it also includes Kurt Cousins, Tyrod Taylor Who Stinks Now, and Colin Kaepernick Who May Or May Not Stink Now.

Opposing running backs, meanwhile, have been held to just 80.6 rushing yards per game and 0.6 rushing touchdowns. That sentence makes me really regret taking DeMarco Murray on FanDuel this week - perhaps I should have researched a little bit more and coughed up the extra $400 for Devonta Freeman.

Opposing "feature backs" have done these things:

• Joseph Randle: 16 carries, 65 yards, 0 touchdowns, 1 fumble
• Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman Combined: 21 carries, 57 yards, 2 touchdowns
• Matt Jones and Alfred Morris Combined: 17 carries, 57 yards, 0 touchdowns, 1 fumble
• Karlos Williams: 18 carries, 40 yards, 0 touchdowns
• Carlos Hyde: 21 carries, 93 yards, 1 touchdowns

For reference, Philly's backs combine to average 24.6 carries per game and 1.0 touchdowns per game. I don't think anybody will deny that DeMarco Murray, Ryan Mathews, and Darren Sproles are as giid or better than any group that NY has faced so far. I'm expecting a decent day on the ground, but the focus here should really be getting Bradford over 300 yards and at least a pair of touchdowns. 

Eagles -4 (-110)

Duh. That one should have been clear from the start. Bovada has the line on the Eagles at 27.5 and the Giants at 22.5. I think the Birds go over and the Giants stay under, but because I think it may end up being a shootout I will just take the plain old spread. 

Darren Sproles to Score a Touchdown (+150)

It's Villanova Graduate Brian Westbrook night at the Linc, as he's getting inducted into the Eagles Hall of Fame before the game. VGBW famously ran a kick back for a touchdown to cripple the Giants, and then Non-Villanova Graduate DeSean Jackson repeated the feat a few years later. This is destiny. Fate. Money in the bank. 

Sam Bradford Passing Yards Over 275.5 (-125)

As discussed above, the Giants are definitely susceptible to a quarterback torch job. Bradford is averaging just 245.8 yards per game, and the line being 30 yards above that is a testament to how bad New York has really been. Against the two teams he's played in the bottom half of the league in defense, #SamIAm went for 336 yards (Atlanta) and 333 yards (New Orleans). 

Sam Bradford Touchdown Passes Over 1.5 (-180)

See above. 

Eli Manning To Throw An Interception (-175)

Guys, it's Eli Manning. This is going to be a fun bet. 

Shane Vereen Receiving Yards Over 39.5 (-115)

Credit where it's due, New York has a solid passing attack. Even if Odell Beckham and Victor Cruz are out, and if Reuben Randle is also out with them, Eli is going to be chucking the ball around. I think Vereen is going to be a guy that benefits, because he can line up in any offensive position on the field. 

Rashad Jennings Over 2 Receptions (-115)

This is a mind blowing line. We know Eli is short on passing options. Jennings has caught 11 passes in the last 4 games. And we have the chance to push if he only catches 2? It's the lock of the week!

Time for me to get back to work. I'll see you guys out there tonight. #FlyEaglesFly

Monday Night Recap: Steelers @ Chargers

I'm going to be honest with you guys. I kind of mailed it in yesterday. One of the drawbacks of trying to blog about player props two nights a week from your desk at work is that you are doing it from your desk at work. Boss over shoulder, phone ringing, meetings with HR telling me to stop using the computer for personal use, the distractions are endless.

And yesterday I basically picked the line, the over, and the "To Score A Touchdown" props for seven players. And I got killed, final score Pittsburgh 24, San Diego 20:

Chargers -4 (Loss)
They let Phil Rivers throw the ball 48 times and he was only able to orchestrate 2 touchdown drives. Late game heroics from Bell aside, Rivers needed to put up more than 20 points. And he did not.

Over 46 (Loss)
See above.

Le'Veon Bell (Win)
San Diego had a 3 point lead at the end so it wasn't going to be a cover anyway, but Bell running it in as time expired for the win (from the Wildcat, no less) was a real kick in the dick. We didn't cover, we missed the over by 2 points, and the touchdown payout here was -175.

DeAngelo Williams (Loss)
Hey Jay, you idiot! There's a reason he was +450 to score a goddamn touchdown last night!

Antonio Brown (Loss)
Darrius Heyward-Bey (Loss)
Mike Vick only completed 13 passes, and 3 of them went to Bell. The Steelers' leading receiver last night was Markus Wheaton, who had the lone touchdown despite catching just one pass.

Melvin Gordon (Loss)
Melvin led the team in rushing attempts and was second in receptions but couldn't get into the end zone. Typical move from a guy named Melvin, and I should have known better.

Keenan Allen (Loss)
This one stings.

Antonio Gates (Win)
Let's end on a high note! (Puts bag on head)

Last night: 2-7
Thursday nights: 12-11-2
Monday nights: 13-17

Monday Night Football Preview: Steelers @ Chargers

We split our college picks from Friday's post. It was really nice to actually win a bet, because it had been like a week since we saw black. We followed it up with a solid NFL Sunday where we hit on the Eagles, Cardinals, Patriots and a Bills/Falcons teaser.

Do you smell that? It's momentum! We're rolling! Let's go to Steelers-Chargers tonight:

Game Lines: Chargers -4, Over/Under 46, Total Touchdowns Over/Under 5.5

The Chargers want to pass the ball, and they do so more than anyone in the league except the Patriots. The Steelers want to run the ball, but they are in the middle of the pack in terms of rush yards per game (Note: things done changed since Le'Veon Bell came back from his martyrdom and Ben Roethlisberger got hurt). Pittsburgh has a pretty much average pass defense. San Diego has a bad (but not quite atrocious) run defense. Pittsburgh is near the top of the league in points against (18.8). San Diego is near the bottom (27.5).

The Chargers are favored here because, in today's NFL, passing is more important than rushing. Phil Rivers is better than Michael Vick, and that means more than Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown being better than anyone on the Chargers.

Chargers -4 (-105)
Over 46 (-115)
I like San Diego tonight in a shootout and I like the over. I'm not going to bet the total touchdowns prop, but I always think it's interesting to see how many TDs are going to be split between the skill players. Under 5.5 pays -145, so the line is really more like Over/Under 5 touchdowns.

Here's who I think is getting those five touchdowns:

Le'Veon Bell (-175)
There is never any value in betting the star running back, but it's free money.

DeAngelo Williams (+450)
The value comes in the form of Bell's backup, who has scored 3 touchdowns this year that all came against San Francisco before Bell came back. Because you can run against the Chargers, it's not unreasonable to think that someone other than Bell gets in the end zone.

Antonio Brown (Even)
Duh.

Darrius Heyward-Bey (+200)
DHB has turned into a sneaky good red zone target. He scored touchdowns against San Francisco and Baltimore.

Melvin Gordon (Even)
He has 53.3% of the team's carries this year, and he's averaging 4.1 yards per carry. He has 4 runs of 20+ yards. Somehow he's been held to zero touchdowns, and I think that's gotta change sometime.

Keenan Allen (-115)
He is Rivers' favorite target and he has scored 3 touchdowns in the past 2 weeks.

Antonio Gates (+125)
Gates is back! He's fresh off the steroids, so I almost don't want to bet on him to score because he's probably all flabby now. But it's Antonio Gates and I'm sure Phil will be happy to have him back in the red zone.

Monday Night Football Betting Preview: Chiefs @ Packers

I was going to write something here about how Chiefs is disrespectful to Indian chiefs and how there are too many people that use "chief" as an alternative for "dude" or "bro". But then I took a hard left and started writing about how Green Bay's whole setup makes fun of people like Charlie Kelly and me who eat too much cheese and smell like farts all the time.

Glad we avoided that, welcome to the Monday Night preview.

Green Bay Packers -7 (-115)
What if I told you that Kansas City would play a game in which Alex Smith threw 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, the Chiefs won the turnover battle 2-1, and they still only managed to beat the Houston Texans by one possession? Well, it happened in week one.

KC followed that performance by losing to Denver (by 7) in a game where they out-rushed the Broncos 147 yards to 61. They lost because Peyton Manning threw 3 touchdowns and 1 interception while Alex Smith had a reality check and threw 0 touchdowns and 2 interceptions.

Denver has a top-tier defense. Houston, Kansas City, and Green Bay are all in the middle of the pack. The point here is Alex Smith will probably look more like Week One Alex than Week Two Alex.

The problem is the guy on the other sideline is going to look like Aaron Rodgers, who torched Seattle (top-tier defense) and Chicago (actually middle of the pack, at least on defense) for a combined 76.8% completion percentage, 438 yards, 5 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. He's also rushed for 58 yards, which is 80 more yards than Big Time Expensive Free Agent DeMarco Murray.

Justin Houston and Eric Berry are not slouches. But Rodgers carved up the Seahawks for an 89.2 QBR.

Total Points Over 49.5 (-110)
Week One Alex Smith versus Any Week Aaron Rodgers should mean both teams get into the 20s. Plus, this is somewhat of a hedge to that first bet because there is a scenario where KC scores 40-50 points and Green Bay just can't hang.

Alex Smith Rushing Yards Over 17.5 (-115)
Smith ran for 15 yards in each of the first two games. Green Bay gave up 31 rushing yards to Jay Cutler and 78 yards to Russell Wilson. I don't think he's going to get quite as many as Russell, but I definitely like him over 17.5.

Aaron Rodgers Rushing Yards Over 20.5 (-125)
This one is a little harder to read, because KC has faced Peyton Manning, Brian Hoyer, and Ryan Mallett. Those guys have combined for one rush attempt total through two games, and it was for 6 yards. Rodgers ran 8 times for 35 yards against Chicago and 6 times for 23 yards against Seattle. I'm addicted to betting quarterback rush overs, so hell yes I like him to go for 20+ tonight.

Jeremy Maclin Receiving Yards Over 60.5 (-125)
Maclin went for 52 yards against Houston and 57 yards against Denver. So why is his total for this game this high? I have no idea but I know that Vegas is smarter than me so I'm hopping on the Maclin train and we are full steam ahead away from Logic Station.