Monday Night Football Preview: Ravens @ Cardinals

As much as I hate to say it, we are in a bad spot. Two weeks in a row, we had college football teasers blown up by Last Play Of The Game Special Teams Miracles As Time Expires - first Michigan, then Florida State. I can't take any more special teams defense heroics. 

Also we're hemorrhaging money:

Thursday Nights: 12-14-2
Monday Nights: 17-20

So take these bits of advice at your own risk:

Line: Cardinals -9 and Over/Under 49.5

There's a lot to consider with a line that big. For one, the Ravens are 1-5 but have not lost a game by more than 6 points. They have one-possession losses to the Broncos and Bengals, and they beat the Steelers. However, they have losses to the Raiders, Browns, and 49ers. 

On the other side of the field, the Cardinals have blown out the Saints, Bears, 49ers, and Lions by an average of 25.5 points. They lost by 2 to the Rams, and they are coming off a 12 point loss at Pittsburgh. 

I think the best way to attack this is to see how St. Louis and Pittsburgh kept Arizona in check, and then figure out if Baltimore can replicate that. 

The Rams had a very Rams game when they beat the Cardinals 24-22. Nick Foles had just 171 yards, but he threw three touchdowns and zero interceptions. Todd Gurley did the heavy lifting, totaling 146 rushing yards. The biggest thing they did, though, was limiting Carson Palmer and the Cardinals to just one towndown. 

The Steelers also limited Arizona to just one touchdown. Landry Jones and Mike Vick combined for a surprisingly good stat line of 174 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Vick and Le'Veon Bell combined for 135 rushing yards. 

You do not beat the Cardinals by going all "New NFL" on them and trying to throw for 400 yards - just ask Drew Brees, Jay Cutler, and Matt Stafford. You beat them by pounding the ball, chewing up clock, and holding Arizona to field goals instead of touchdowns. 

I might be crazy, but I really like Baltimore here. 

In their Denver game, they held the Broncos to 0 offensive touchdowns, 1 defensive touchdown, and 4 field goals. They couldn't get anything going against Denver's tough defense, and Joe Flacco's 2 interceptions really killed any chance they had of actually winning. 

In their Bengals game, the Ravens got torn up by Andy Dalton. The Red Ginger (or whatever his gay nickname is) had 383 yards and 3 touchdowns, and he also rushed for a touchdown. If Baltimore had made one more stop in the red zone and held Cincy to a field goal, they could have pulled out a win. 

The Pick: Ravens +9 (-110). I think the line is 3-4 points too high, and I think Baltimore is going to be able to keep it close by pounding the ball with Justin Forsett and Javorius Allen.

Now, onto the player props:

The Cards have a running back committee that is led by Chris Johnson (93 carries, 2 touchdowns) but also includes Andre Ellington (16 carries, 2 touchdowns) and David Johnson (21 carries, 3 touchdowns). I really would have liked to take David to score, but Bovada has not made him available. I'm making up my own odds and picking David Johnson To Score A Touchdown (+550). 

On the Baltimore side, my first thought was the entire game is going to go through Forsett. I was thinking about taking him at even money to score, but I'm nervous that he totaled just 56 yards in Baltimore's games against Denver and Cincy. So I'm staying away. 

Kamar Aiken Over 3.5 Receptions (-105) is a tasty bet because he's gone for 5-5-4-3 receptions in the last four games he played. He got at least 7 targets in each of those games, and you have to think the Cardinals will be keying on Steve Smith tonight to try to negate Joe Flacco's first option. 

He's averaging 5.5 catches per game and he had 10 last week, so John Brown Over 4.5 Receptions (-115) sort of feels like stealing. Thanks, Las Vegas! The same goes for Larry Fitzgerald Over 6 Receptions (-140), because Fitz has only caught less than 6 passes once this year, when he caught 5. I think I might make that the lock of the week just so we can all tweet #NiceHandsLarry at each other all night for a good laugh. 

Thursday Night Recap: Ravens @ Steelers

We expected a gross, AFC North-style game last night, and boy did we get it. Both teams ran the ball more often than they threw it, which is almost unheard of in the modern NFL.

But as far as our ticket from last night goes, that was alright with me.

Steelers +3 (Push)
Teaser: Steelers +10 and Under 51 (Win)
These should have both been wins, but Pittsburgh sort of blew it at the end of the game. Here's some hard-hitting football analysis: when you are leading 20-7 halfway through the third quarter, you should win the game.

First Scoring Play: Field Goal or Safety (Win)

On a completely random bet like this, you just have to get lucky.

Joe Flacco To Throw An Interception (Win)
Mike Vick To Throw An Interception (Loss)
Take that, racists!

Le'Veon Bell To Score A Touchdown (Win)
Antonio Brown To Score A Touchdown (Loss)
Steve Smith To Score A Touchdown (Loss)
I was expecting 4-5 touchdowns to go around, and I expected these three (or at least two of them) to be the recipients. Bell got his, and he got 129 yards rushing and 21 yards receiving as well. Brown was targeted on about a third of Vick's 26 pass attempts, but he only caught 5 passes. Smith only caught 4 passes, as Flacco spread the ball around to 9 different receivers.

Justin Forsett Rushing Yards Over 49.5 (Win)
I don't know if I've ever seen any player in any sport cover their total three times over. Forsett went for 150 yards last night. So that was pretty fucking sweet.

Total Sacks In The Game Over 4.5 (Win)
The Ravens had 4 sacks and the Steelers had 5. This was, as advertised, a gross game. But how can you be mad about it when you load up on props that pay you for watching a gross game?

Last night: 6-3-1
Thursday nights: 12-11-2
Monday nights: 11-10

And I'll say it again, fuck the NFC East.

Thursday Night Football Preview: Ravens @ Steelers

Tonight's game has the potential to be even worse than last week's Redskins-Giants dumpster fire. The Ravens are 0-3, and that includes losses at Denver and Oakland and at home to Division-Leading Cincinnati. The Steelers lost to the Future Super Bowl Champion Patriots but then blew out the 49ers and squeaked by the Rams.

When I first saw the line at Ravens -3, I allllllllmost bet my entire life's savings on Pittsburgh +3. Then I remembered that Ben Roethlisberger is injured and Vegas thinks he's worth almost a touchdown (Pittsburgh was around -3 before the injury).

Here is how bad the game is going to be tonight: Mike Vick and Joe Flacco are both -200 to throw at least one interception. Vegas knows everything, and they think that each starting quarterback tonight has a 67% chance to throw a pick. I can understand that for 35 year old Vick, but what about 30 year old, $121 million Joe Flacco? He can't take care of the ball enough to win at home against a team who lost their quarterback last week?

(Sam Bradford plays for the Eagles, shut up Jay)

To the bet ticket:

Steelers +3 (-110)
Thought 1: It's the NFL. There is no way the Ravens are going to start their season 0-4 when they started the season +150 favorites to win the division. Especially against a team missing their star quarterback and replacing him with someone who won't allow Antonio Brown or Le'Veon Bell to be quite as effective as they normally are.

Thought 2: The Ravens have moved all the way out to +750 to win the AFC North, and Pittsburgh is holding steady at +260 even without Big Ben. They're playing with a steady backup quarterback who, despite his pedigree, completed 5 of his 6 passes last week and has rushed 5 times for -5 yards this year (more on that second stat later). Vegas knows, and this is a complete Pittsburgh line.

Teaser: Steelers +10 and Under 51 (-130)
It's been a while since we teased, but this is one that I really like. Fun fact: every game every played between these two teams has stayed under 51 points, and this will be another one that stays in the teens or low twenties.

Joe Flacco To Throw An Interception (-200)
Mike Vick To Throw An Interception (-200)
That's such a shitty payout, but it's Thursday so it's going to be a terrible game.

First Scoring Play: Field Goal or Safety (+110)
This is a crap shoot, but I'm loading up on props that would happen in a low-scoring, dogfight of a game.

To Score A Touchdown:
Le'Veon Bell (-160)
Antonio Brown (-140)
Steve Smith (-120)
Vegas has the line on "Total Touchdowns in the Game" set at 5, and the under only pays -150. So figure we probably have 4-5 touchdowns to go around. Stay away from Justin Forsett here: he hasn't scored a rushing touchdown this season, and Pittsburgh has not allowed a rushing touchdown yet either. I am, however, penciling in Flacco for at least one touchdown, so Smith seems like the safe bet because he's been targeted around a third of the time the Ravens pass the ball the past two weeks.

Justin Forsett Rushing Yards Over 49.5 (-115)
This line is deflated because he ran 10 times last week for 13 yards. Baltimore was trailing the entire game, so they abandoned the run and let Flacco unload for 49 pass attempts. In weeks one and two, Forsett ran for 43 and 68 yards. Pittsburgh has allowed Dion Lewis to run for 69 yards (nice), Kaepernick and Hyde to combine for 94 yards, and the Rams as a team ran for 71 yards. I really can't stress how bad the offense was on both sides of that Rams game.

Total Sacks In The Game Over 4.5 (-140)
In the first three games, Pittsburgh sacked the opposing QB twice, five times, and twice again. They've allowed three, zero, and five sacks. Those numbers for the Ravens: four, one, and two sacks. Two, zero, and zero sacks against. Why do I like the over here? Because it's going to be a gross game, of course.

This game is going to be more gross that this professional athlete's chin