Super Bowl 50 Ads: Overrated, Underrated, and Properly Rated

Overall, I thought it was a pretty underwhelming year for Super Bowl commercials (and, while we're on the topic, the actual football game itself was pretty lackluster). There were some that I liked, some that everyone liked, and some that make you question the whole concept of advertising altogether.

To the numbers, courtesy of the USA Today Ad Meter:

First Quarter

Hyundai, First Date (score: 6.90) 
(nice)
Verdict: Properly rated

How perfect is it that the highest-rated commercial in 2016 is featuring Kevin Hart? He's in approximately two-thirds of all movies that are released now, and he essentially played the same character in the Hyundai commercial that he plays in all of his movies.

Side note: to summarize how much of a "down year" this was, the highest-rated commercial last year was rated an 8.10. So... 6.90 might not actually be that nice.

Doritos, Ultrasound (6.60)
Verdict: Properly rated

If you didn't yell out loud when the baby shot himself out of the mom's butt (or whatever happens, I'm not a doctor), then you probably should have pregamed a little heavier. I thought it was great.

Audi, Commander (6.04)
Verdict: Overrated

Look, I love outer space and astronauts as much as anyone, but get out of my face with comparing a car to a goddamn rocket ship.

Snickers, Marilyn (5.60)
Verdict: Underrated

Maybe we can consider this properly rated, but I'm a sucker for all of these Snickers "You're not you when you're hungry" commercials. The Willem Dafoe/Marilyn Monroe version was as good as any, and it also marked the second year that Willem Dafoe killed it in a Super Bowl ad.

Avocados From Mexico, Avocados In Space (5.52)
Verdict: Properly rated

Did you guys ever have a time capsule project in middle school? If you're the kid that ended up with that collection last night, you got an F- and you maybe even got kicked down into remedial classes.

I hope that we leave a better picture of humanity behind when we ultimately leave Earth. Maybe some literature, or some movies, or some high-tech engineering project? Because a Rubik's cube and Bob Loblaw aren't going to make anyone look upon us fondly.

Disney, The Jungle Book (5.19)
Verdict: Properly rated

There isn't much you can say about movie commercials during the Super Bowl, but I thought the pseudo-3D effects on The Jungle Book commercial were cool, and that movie looks dope.

Apartments.com, Moving Day (5.06)
Verdict: Way underrated

The number one story that comes up when you Google this ad is a hot take "this was racist" column. I guess maybe it was racist because the Jeffersons were not white? Maybe it's racist to pay Lil Wayne millions of dollars to kick field goals off a roof? George Washington owned slaves, that means anything with him and a black man is super racist?

Racist undertones aside, I enjoyed the progression of apartments as Jeff Goldblum climbed the side of the building, and the George/Weezy appearance was the second most yell-out-loud moment of the night.

Shock Top, Unfiltered Talk (4.63)
Verdict: So underrated I can't even

Shock Top is good. TJ Miller is good. Last night's commercial was good. I don't understand how this is so low - it might be the most underrated spot of the night.

Mountain Dew Kickstart, Puppymonkeybaby (3.90)
Verdict: Overrated

Mountain Dew's ads have been weird for a long time (the dancing spaceman from last year comes to mind), but this was a whole new level of fucked up.

The idea of the ad was Kickstart combines three things: Mountain Dew, juice, and caffeine. The Puppymonkeybaby is also three combined things, but it's horrifyingly awful. So, ipso facto, Kickstart is horrifyingly awful? Is that what you're going for?

Mobile Strike, Mobile Strike (3.56)
Verdict: Properly rated

I most certainly will not download Mobile Strike (or any game like it), but it's nice to see that Arnold is still collecting checks.

Marmot, Love The Outside (5.40)
Verdict: Way overrated

After last night, if you wear Marmot clothing you should be embarrassed. Plain and simple.

Second Quarter

Hyundai, Ryanville (6.27)
Verdict: Underrated

Happy Monday, you are uglier than Ryan Reynolds, and no girls are ever going to get in a car crash because they're staring at you.

I'm calling it underrated because it caught everyone's attention (and made for some good content on Twitter), but I think every single car that's manufactured now has that brake assist/automatic stop feature. So this could have been an ad for literally any car on the market.

Toyota, The Longest Chase (5.97)
Verdict: Underrated

To be honest I thought this could have been the top ad of the night. The Prius looked good, the spot was funny and well-made, and it highlighted some features that probably sold quite a few viewers on the idea of getting a Prius. I will not be one of those people, but I'm sure this will help their sales overall.

Bud Light, The Bud Light Party (5.30)
Verdict: Overrated

Welcome to year two of Bud Light's annual "Hey we're doing this thing that may or may not actually be a real thing" campaign. Also Amy Schumer almost said cock on the television! Haha! She's hilarious!

T-Mobile, Drop The Balls (5.28)
Verdict: Properly rated

I'll say properly rated because the message behind the ad was definitely worth the price of the spot, but if I see any more renditions of the Steve Harvey Miss Universe flub I'm going to put my foot through my TV.

Third Quarter

Amazon Echo, Baldwin Bowl (5.63)
Verdict: Criminally underrated

This should have been at least a full point higher. Baldwin was great, Marino was great, Missy Elliot was funny, and it made the Echo seem like a useful item to have around the house.

Usually, I see ads for the Echo and think that it's for rich suburban housewives who spend all day cooking (and thus can't use their hands to play Coldplay on the stereo). But if Alec Baldwin has one, maybe we should start re-thinking it.

Valeant, Xifaxan (3.30)
Verdict: Overrated

It was a bolt strategy to pay $5 million to air this commercial. Xifaxan treats IBS, a condition that 10-15% of the population has, but only 25-30% of people who experience it actually go to a doctor. Rough math tells me that, in the whole country, less than 10 million people would be in the Xifaxan target market. Most of those people have probably already complained to their doctors, so how many people were really going to be reached with this commercial?

7 million? 5 million? 1 million?

The other 100 million people watching last night thought it was a waste of money.

Fourth Quarter

Valeant, Jublia (3.22)
Verdict: Overrated

When I'm a TV studio executive, I'm going to have one rule for commercials. That's it. One rule: nothing that's fucking gross.

Valeant followed up their irritable bowel syndrome commercial with a medicine for toe fungus. Toe fungus!

And the best part of all is this Jublia is less than 20% effective against the fungus it's supposed to treat. This drug feels like a huge financial scam - you'll try the drug because your insurance will pay Valeant for it, it probably won't work, and the goddamn French Canadians at Valeant will laugh all the way to the bank.

So yeah, I think 3.22 was too high for this thievery.

Jeep, 4x4ever (5.21)
Verdict: Properly rated

I thought this spot and the halftime "Portraits" spot did a good job of making Jeep owners feel good about their vehicles. I'd love to see a breakdown of how they were rated by Jeep Owners vs. Non-Jeep Owners.

It's an easy brand to be proud of, but last night's ads seemed like they could fly under the radar for the majority of viewers.

Fun fact: in Hawaii, the 4x4ever ad scored a 9.0 and the Portraits ad scored a 10.0. Hawaii loves Jeeps, apparently.

NFL, Super Bowl Babies Choir With Seal (5.71)
Verdict: Properly rated

What the fuck.

I don't even know what to say.

NHL Players Are Supremely Underpaid

One of the larger off-ice stories in the NHL this weekend was the report that Tampa Bay offered Steven Stamkos an extension with a cap hit of $8.5 million per year. To be fair, it's probably their opening offer and I would think they know they have to pay him more.

But still, $8.5 million is peanuts in professional sports. It's what Eagles tight end Zach Ertz just signed for. He's a solid contributor, sure, but Stamkos is one of the ten best hockey players on the planet.

This got me thinking about salary discrepancy between the major American sports, let's take a look at some notable cap hits:

MLB Starting Pitchers

Clayton Kershaw, $34.6 million
Zack Greinke, $34.0
David Price, $30.0
Justin Verlander, $28.0
Felix Hernandez, $25.9
CC Sabathia, $25.0
Jon Lester, $25.0
Cole Hamels, $23.5

MLB Position Players

Miguel Cabrera, $28.0 million
Yoenis Cespedes, $27.5
Albert Pujols, $25.0
Ryan Howard, $25.0 (hang on I'm going to go pour myself a tall glass of bleach)
Prince Fielder, $24.0
Robinson Cano, $24.0
Mark Teixeira, $23.1
Joe Mauer, $23.0

NFL Quarterbacks

Drew Brees, $30.0 million
Joe Flacco, $28.6
Eli Manning, $24.2
Ben Roethlisberger, $24.0
Matt Ryan, $23.8
Matt Stafford, $22.5
Peyton Manning, $21.5
Phil Rivers, $21.0
Tony Romo, $20.8
Cam Newton, $19.5

NFL Position Players

Ndamukong Suh, $28.6 million
Calvin Johnson, $24.0
Mario Williams, $19.9
Justin Houston, $19.1
Darrelle Revis, $17.0
Julio Jones, $15.9
Larry Fitzgerald, $15.9
Calais Cambell, $15.3
Demaryius Thomas, $15.2

NBA Players

Kobe Bryant, $25.0 million
Joe Johnson, $24.9
LeBron James, $23.0
Carmelo Anthony, $22.9
Dwight Howard, $22.4
Chris Bosh, $22.2
Chris Paul, $21.5
Kevin Durant, $21.2
Derrick Rose, $20.1
Dwyane Wade, $20.0
Brook Lopez, $19.7

Every single one of the players on this list makes considerably more than any player in the NHL. That makes sense - football, baseball, and basketball are all more popular than hockey and the total revenue will reflect that popularity. Television deals, especially, create this disparity.

But let's take another angle and find some comparables for the highest-paid NHL players:

Jonathan Toews & Patrick Kane, $10.5 million each

The richest men in hockey (both in terms of contract dollars and trophy case prestige) earn Julius Peppers money. They earn slightly more than linemen Cameron Heyward, Ryan Kalil, and Nate Solder. They're also paid just a bit more than NBA role players Wilson Chandler and Monta Ellis.

I was scared to check the MLB list here because baseball players are so overpaid. For $21 million annually, you could either have Toews and Kane... or Ben Zobrist and Kendrys Morales.

Anze Kopitar's new extention, $10.0 million
Alexander Ovechkin, $9.5 million
Evgeni Malkin, $9.5 million
PK Subban, $9.0 million

The $9-10 million range is where you find four of the six highest-paid players in hockey. Stamkos might join this group to make it five out of seven, but I'd bet he surpasses the two Blackhawks.

In other sports, you're lucky if you can get a solid role player for this kind of money. Receivers like Victor Cruz, Brandon Marshall, DeSean Jackson, and Randall Cobb are all in this range. Some notable defensive footballers here are Lavonte David, Aqib Talib, Cameron Wake, and Byron Maxwell (this is a really rough post overall for Philly fans, need more bleach).

In the NBA, this range is split between old guys who are banking a bunch of money in the twilight of their careers (Zach Randolph, Anderson Varejao, Jeff Green) and guys who are in their prime (Mike Conley, DeMar DeRozan, Rajon Rondo).

There are some nice value contracts in the MLB in this range. Primarily, that group is starting pitchers: Chris Sale ($9.2 million), Madison Bumgarner ($10.0), Jeff Samarzdija ($9.0), Edinson Volquez ($9.5).

Sidney Crosby, $8.7 million
Henrik Lundqvist, $8.5 million

Unquestionably among the NHL's elite, you could even argue that Sid and Hank are the best at their position in the league. For the price of them you could have Nick Foles, Jason Witten, Donte Whitner, or Jordy Nelson. If you look to the NBA, instead of a franchise cornerstone you get Tiago Splitter, Brandon Jennings, or Trevor Ariza.

To be fair, there are a pair of cornerstone NBA guys in this range. But they are Kevin Garnett and Dirk Nowitzki, who are as old as Topher Grace and the actress who plays the Red Woman in Game of Thrones. Dirk and KG are certainly over the hill, so I guess it makes sense that they're in the same group as Crosby and Lundqvist.

Phillies catcher Carlos Ruiz is also in this price range. He's also over the hill and I'm going to need to refill my mason jar of bleach again.

Daniel & Henrik Sedin, $7.0 million each

The Sedin twins' cap hit is matched exactly by linemen Logan Mankins, Michael Bennett, and Desmond Bryant; point guards Rodney Stuckey and Cory Joseph; and infielders Mike Napoli and Yunel Escobar.

It's easy to argue that the Sedins are overpaid (and even easier to argue that they're super fucking weird), but they've been among the NHL's elite for like a decade. Those other guys - not so much.

Tyler Seguin, $5.8 million

Perhaps the best value in the NHL, Seguin's a superstar in Dallas. The best comparable in the NFL is Jameis Winston's rookie contract. To reiterate: a player that had never played a second of professional football signed a contract that paid him as well as one of the most electric young hockey players in the world. What a time to play a sport other than hockey.

The NBA comparable might be even funnier. It's Kyle Korver.

RJ Umberger $4.6 million (I have to start going to a new CVS because I bought out all of the bleach from the one by my house)

At this point in the other pro sports leagues, you're looking at (1) guys you've only vaguely heard of and (2) rookie contracts. Some of my favorite football players (aka the ones I've heard of before) are Rob Ninkovich, Paul Posluszny, and Michael Oher.

The Umberger cap figure is also a great microcosm of the Philadelphia sports scene. As his contract dwindles to its bitter end and moves the Flyers closer to having cap flexibility and competing, he's earning as much as two youngsters that share his building: Jahlil Okafor and Joel Embiid.

Have you guys tried the new Clorox Fresh Meadow Scented Bleach? It really tastes good and makes me forget about how much it sucks to live in Philly.

Sean Couturier's extension, $4.3 million

Happiness! Young talent locked up long term! Hope! We have some!

The only players that can even hope to be in the conversation at this price range are Danny Amendola ($4.4 million), Steve Smith ($4.2), Matt Harvey ($4.3), and a big group of NBA rookie contracts.

That group of rookies - Lillard, Porzingis, Harrison Barnes, to name a few - will almost certainly be getting raises that put them among the group of NBA players at the beginning of this post. I'd guess that for the upcoming cap hits of Lillard/Porzingis/Barnes combined, you could afford to ice a full set of four forward lines of just Sean Couturier clones. I love you, Ron Hextall.

Shayne Gostisbehere, $0.9

Okay fine, this one is a rookie contract so it's kind of cheating.

Monday Night Football Preview: Colts @ Panthers

It's a bleak time for us. We can't afford food. We can't afford beer. I have a Blackberry so I can't even drive with Uber (dot com) to make some extra life-changing money. Here's how we've fared so far on weeknight games:

Monday Nights: 18-24
Thursday Nights: 12-14-2

We aren't going to make up 8 wins tonight, but we need some momentum for the second half of the season. That's the logic we're using, and it also applies perfectly to the Philadelphia Eagles. 

Through 7 games, the Colts are a meager 3-4 and have disappointed everyone who considered them a real contender. The Panthers, on the other hand, have blown past expectations and have started the season undefeated through 6 games. 

For tonight's matchup, I'm going to throw out some fun stats to brighten your Monday morning (and then follow it up with some related bets to ruin your Monday night).

Fun Stat #1: In first halves, the Colts have thrown for just 5.6 yards per attempt, 4 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, have a QB rating of just 69.2. They have just 1 first half rushing touchdown and 2 fumbles. In second halves, they've thrown for 7.3 yards per attempt and 10 touchdowns (and 5 interceptions). The rushing attack has also seen a little more success in the second half, but the jump isn't as significant because the Colts stink and are always playing from behind. 

Along the same lines, you would expect Carolina to have more rushing success in the second halves of their victories. They've certainly relied more on the run in second halves (106 attempts to 91 first-half attempts), but they've only scored 1 more touchdown in the second half than the first, and their yards per rush drop from 5.2 in the first half to 3.8 in the second. However, their passing attack improves from 4 touchdowns/5 interceptions/5.9 yards per attempt in the first half to 5 touchdowns/2 interceptions/8.3 yards per attempt in the second. 

The Colts' defense has 5 interceptions in first halves so far, compared to just 2 in the second half. The Panthers' D has 3 in the first half and 6 in the second, which is certainly helped by the fact that they are usually winning (and forcing the other team into obvious passing situations). 

Related Bet #1: First half under 23 (-115). The total for the game is 46 points, so this first half under feels like a steal. 

Fun Stat #2: There is an enormous gap between the payouts for First Score Of The Game:

• Colts Safety (+5000) and Panthers Safety (+5000) aren't going to happen
• Colts Field Goal (+400)
• Panthers Field Goal (+325)
• Colts Touchdown (+300)
• Panthers Touchdown (+130)

Related Bet #2: How more obvious can it be? Vegas knows what's going to happen. Midas whale profit off it - Carolina TD +130, please and thank you. 

Fun Stat #3: The Panthers have allowed just 5 passing touchdowns and 6 rushing touchdowns through 6 games. Vegas expects Andrew Luck to throw 1 or 2 touchdowns, and they expect TY Hilton (and to a slightly lesser extent, Donte Moncrief) to have a big night. 

Frank Gore has all 3 rushing touchdown for Indianapolis this year. Moncrief (5) and Hilton (3) lead the team in receiving touchdowns, and Fleener/Johnson/Dorsett/Allen/Whalen have each caught one. 

Related Bet #3: Gore (+125), Hilton (+125), and Moncrief (+175) are the only bets I'd even consider making on this side. Few running backs have had a lot of success against Carolina, but they've given up touchdowns to Doug Martin, Marshawn Lynch, and Ryan Mathews the past 3 weeks. I wish Gore's prop paid more, but it's a decent bet. 

Teams have been able to have some balanced success against Carolina this year, and they got torched by Vincent Jackson (6'5", 230 pounds) and Jimmy Graham (6'7", 265 pounds). The Colts don't have a wide receiver who fits that mold, but Coby Fleener (+250, 6'6", 251 pounds) seems a likely target if coach Pagano saw the same Box Scores that I did. 

Fun Stat #4: The Colts, on the other hand, have allowed 12 passing touchdowns and 8 rushing touchdowns through 7 games. Vegas expects Cam Newtown to throw more than one touchdown, and they expect Jonathan Stewart and Greg Olsen to have a big night. 

Newton (4) and Stewart (2) have done most of the scoring on the ground, and Mike Tolbert has a touchdown too. Through the air, Ted Ginn (3) and Olsen (3) are the most frequent touchdown scorers. Tolbert, Corey Brown, and Holy Crap Jerrico Cotchery Is Still In The NFL have all also caught one touchdown. 

Related Bet #4: Stewart (-125) and Newton (+100) don't pay as much as you'd like, and you can say the same about Olsen (+110). Even Ted Ginn - who was going to be my Wild Card - pays just +150. I think we have to pick two of those four, but I'm having a tough time deciding so I'm just going to fire away with all four. 

Fun Stat #5: Look at the touchdown props for the Carolina players. Look at Andrew Luck -275 to throw an interception and just +110 to go over 2 touchdowns. Look at the Team Points lines for Indy (20) and Carolina (27). Vegas loves the Panthers tonight, and so do I. 

Related Bet #5: Panthers -7

Thursday Night Football: Seahawks @ 49ers

It seems like it was so long ago that a Seahawks-Niners game could be happening two weeks before the Super Bowl. Then Harbaugh went back to college and the Seahawks had to do the Chicago Blackhawks salary cap shed/reload move and they've started two seasons in a row poorly.

So here they are, both at 2-4 and both having showed flashes of the solid teams they've been in the recent past.

I could see tonight going a LOT of ways, but I'm going to throw out a few lines to try to build on our season record (17-20 on Monday nights and 12-11-2 on Thursday nights).

Tease Seahawks -1 and Over 36.5

Except for their Loud Fart Noise against Detroit when they scored just 13 and their loss at Green Bay when they scored 17, Seattle have scored 20+ against every team they've played so far. And they haven't been facing cupcake defenses: the Rams, Bengals, and Panthers have all been good this year. 

On the other side, San Francisco has gotten creamed by the Steelers, Cardinals, and Packers. They blew out Minnesota to start the year and have played close games against the Giants (loss) and Ravens (win) the past two weeks. 

That over/under line is set as if these two defenses were still as elite as they've been the past 5 years. But Seattle is allowing 21.3 points per game (25.6 if you factor out Chicago's 0). San Francisco is allowing 26.7 per game (31.4 if you factor out Minnesota's 3). 

Ultimately I like Seattle because of the following lines: Wilson to throw over 1.5 touchdowns pays -135, while the same line for Kaepernick pays +140. Wilson to throw an interception pays -115, while Kaepernick's line is -155. 

I think I like Seattle's spread even without the tease, and I feel the same way about the over. But teasers are the best and I could absolutely see a situation where Seattle wins 20-17. 

To Score A Touchdown:

Jimmy Graham +120

Marshawn Lynch is the only player in the game who has prohibitive odds to score a touchdown. That kind of tells you what sort of game Vegas is expecting (the Total Touchdowns line is over/under 4.5). Jimmy Graham and Doug Baldwin lead Seattle with 2 receiving touchdowns each, and Lynch actually only has 1 rushing touchdown on the year so far. The Waterbirds defense has 2 touchdowns. 

Colin Kaepernick +300

Carlos Hyde is questionable, which should increase Kap's load - and he already runs 6+ times per game. He's rushed for 228 yards and 1 touchdown, and he's about as likely as anyone on the Niners to convert in the red zone. (This paragraph was sponsored by the ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ emoji.)

Monday Night Football Preview: Giants @ Eagles

If you follow these Thursday Night/Monday Night previews and recaps, you know I've had a bad stretch of picking NFC East games. It's part of the reason I'm just 12-11-2 on Thursday nights and 13-17 on Monday nights. (Another part of it is I got absolutely creamed with last week's Steelers-Chargers game.)

But we're turning the ship around tonight, just like Chip and Sam and the Birds are turning it around. The march for the playoffs started last week against the lowly Saints, and it continues tonight against a decidedly mediocre Giants team.

The G-men are allowing opposing quarterbacks to average 304.2 passing yards per game, 1.6 touchdowns per game, 1.0 interceptions per game. That group includes Tony Romo and Matt Ryan, but it also includes Kurt Cousins, Tyrod Taylor Who Stinks Now, and Colin Kaepernick Who May Or May Not Stink Now.

Opposing running backs, meanwhile, have been held to just 80.6 rushing yards per game and 0.6 rushing touchdowns. That sentence makes me really regret taking DeMarco Murray on FanDuel this week - perhaps I should have researched a little bit more and coughed up the extra $400 for Devonta Freeman.

Opposing "feature backs" have done these things:

• Joseph Randle: 16 carries, 65 yards, 0 touchdowns, 1 fumble
• Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman Combined: 21 carries, 57 yards, 2 touchdowns
• Matt Jones and Alfred Morris Combined: 17 carries, 57 yards, 0 touchdowns, 1 fumble
• Karlos Williams: 18 carries, 40 yards, 0 touchdowns
• Carlos Hyde: 21 carries, 93 yards, 1 touchdowns

For reference, Philly's backs combine to average 24.6 carries per game and 1.0 touchdowns per game. I don't think anybody will deny that DeMarco Murray, Ryan Mathews, and Darren Sproles are as giid or better than any group that NY has faced so far. I'm expecting a decent day on the ground, but the focus here should really be getting Bradford over 300 yards and at least a pair of touchdowns. 

Eagles -4 (-110)

Duh. That one should have been clear from the start. Bovada has the line on the Eagles at 27.5 and the Giants at 22.5. I think the Birds go over and the Giants stay under, but because I think it may end up being a shootout I will just take the plain old spread. 

Darren Sproles to Score a Touchdown (+150)

It's Villanova Graduate Brian Westbrook night at the Linc, as he's getting inducted into the Eagles Hall of Fame before the game. VGBW famously ran a kick back for a touchdown to cripple the Giants, and then Non-Villanova Graduate DeSean Jackson repeated the feat a few years later. This is destiny. Fate. Money in the bank. 

Sam Bradford Passing Yards Over 275.5 (-125)

As discussed above, the Giants are definitely susceptible to a quarterback torch job. Bradford is averaging just 245.8 yards per game, and the line being 30 yards above that is a testament to how bad New York has really been. Against the two teams he's played in the bottom half of the league in defense, #SamIAm went for 336 yards (Atlanta) and 333 yards (New Orleans). 

Sam Bradford Touchdown Passes Over 1.5 (-180)

See above. 

Eli Manning To Throw An Interception (-175)

Guys, it's Eli Manning. This is going to be a fun bet. 

Shane Vereen Receiving Yards Over 39.5 (-115)

Credit where it's due, New York has a solid passing attack. Even if Odell Beckham and Victor Cruz are out, and if Reuben Randle is also out with them, Eli is going to be chucking the ball around. I think Vereen is going to be a guy that benefits, because he can line up in any offensive position on the field. 

Rashad Jennings Over 2 Receptions (-115)

This is a mind blowing line. We know Eli is short on passing options. Jennings has caught 11 passes in the last 4 games. And we have the chance to push if he only catches 2? It's the lock of the week!

Time for me to get back to work. I'll see you guys out there tonight. #FlyEaglesFly

Thursday Night Recap: Ravens @ Steelers

We expected a gross, AFC North-style game last night, and boy did we get it. Both teams ran the ball more often than they threw it, which is almost unheard of in the modern NFL.

But as far as our ticket from last night goes, that was alright with me.

Steelers +3 (Push)
Teaser: Steelers +10 and Under 51 (Win)
These should have both been wins, but Pittsburgh sort of blew it at the end of the game. Here's some hard-hitting football analysis: when you are leading 20-7 halfway through the third quarter, you should win the game.

First Scoring Play: Field Goal or Safety (Win)

On a completely random bet like this, you just have to get lucky.

Joe Flacco To Throw An Interception (Win)
Mike Vick To Throw An Interception (Loss)
Take that, racists!

Le'Veon Bell To Score A Touchdown (Win)
Antonio Brown To Score A Touchdown (Loss)
Steve Smith To Score A Touchdown (Loss)
I was expecting 4-5 touchdowns to go around, and I expected these three (or at least two of them) to be the recipients. Bell got his, and he got 129 yards rushing and 21 yards receiving as well. Brown was targeted on about a third of Vick's 26 pass attempts, but he only caught 5 passes. Smith only caught 4 passes, as Flacco spread the ball around to 9 different receivers.

Justin Forsett Rushing Yards Over 49.5 (Win)
I don't know if I've ever seen any player in any sport cover their total three times over. Forsett went for 150 yards last night. So that was pretty fucking sweet.

Total Sacks In The Game Over 4.5 (Win)
The Ravens had 4 sacks and the Steelers had 5. This was, as advertised, a gross game. But how can you be mad about it when you load up on props that pay you for watching a gross game?

Last night: 6-3-1
Thursday nights: 12-11-2
Monday nights: 11-10

And I'll say it again, fuck the NFC East.

Monday Night Football Recap: Chiefs @ Packers

Obligatory, because I heaped on praise yesterday and he absolutely killed it.

I went very heavy on the Packers yesterday, because they have been the class of the NFC for about as long as I can remember. And the Chiefs are led by Andy Reid and Alex Smith, who are generally bad.

Green Bay +7 (Win)

Three minutes into the fourth quarter, Green Bay scored to go up 38-14. Game over, cover not in question, no worries. 

Then Alex Smith marched 89 yards down the field and scored to cut it to a 2 possession game with about ten minutes left. Then he did it again with a minute and a half left, but they missed the extra point to leave it at a ten point deficit. 

We've been crushed enough to know what was coming: onside kick, meaningless touchdown, Packers kneel the ball to win the game but not cover the spread. 

But nope, Green Bay went 3-and-out but took enough time off the clock to close it out. 

Total Points Over 49.5 (Win)

This over was a product of Smith doing what was expected and Rodgers exceeding expectations.  

It's also a product of Jamaal Charles rushing for three (!!) touchdowns, but still losing the game because his quarterback went for a QBR below 20.

Aaron Rodgers Rushing Yards Over 20.5 (Loss)
He finished the game with 2 rushes for 16 yards. Damn. This is my favorite kind of player prop to bet, because it only takes one long run to hit. This just wasn't the night for that to happen.

Alex Smith Rushing Yards Over 17.5 (Win)
Like I just said, it only takes one. Smith finished with 33 rushing yards, but 19 of them came on one attempt in an absolute garbage situation right before the first half ended. You couldn't ask for a dumber way to cover.

Jeremy Maclin Receiving Yards Over 60.5 (Win)
My logic on this bet was "his stats the first two games would lead me to think he's going under, and I can't understand why the line is this high." Well guys, Vegas knows best and J-Mac ended the night with 141 receiving yards (including one for 61 yards, so we had another #OverInOnePlay situation). Sometimes you have to set logic/reasoning aside and just read the line.

Last night: 4-1
Monday nights: 11-10
Thursday nights: 6-8-1

And I will repeat, fuck the NFC East.

Monday Night Football Betting Preview: Chiefs @ Packers

I was going to write something here about how Chiefs is disrespectful to Indian chiefs and how there are too many people that use "chief" as an alternative for "dude" or "bro". But then I took a hard left and started writing about how Green Bay's whole setup makes fun of people like Charlie Kelly and me who eat too much cheese and smell like farts all the time.

Glad we avoided that, welcome to the Monday Night preview.

Green Bay Packers -7 (-115)
What if I told you that Kansas City would play a game in which Alex Smith threw 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, the Chiefs won the turnover battle 2-1, and they still only managed to beat the Houston Texans by one possession? Well, it happened in week one.

KC followed that performance by losing to Denver (by 7) in a game where they out-rushed the Broncos 147 yards to 61. They lost because Peyton Manning threw 3 touchdowns and 1 interception while Alex Smith had a reality check and threw 0 touchdowns and 2 interceptions.

Denver has a top-tier defense. Houston, Kansas City, and Green Bay are all in the middle of the pack. The point here is Alex Smith will probably look more like Week One Alex than Week Two Alex.

The problem is the guy on the other sideline is going to look like Aaron Rodgers, who torched Seattle (top-tier defense) and Chicago (actually middle of the pack, at least on defense) for a combined 76.8% completion percentage, 438 yards, 5 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. He's also rushed for 58 yards, which is 80 more yards than Big Time Expensive Free Agent DeMarco Murray.

Justin Houston and Eric Berry are not slouches. But Rodgers carved up the Seahawks for an 89.2 QBR.

Total Points Over 49.5 (-110)
Week One Alex Smith versus Any Week Aaron Rodgers should mean both teams get into the 20s. Plus, this is somewhat of a hedge to that first bet because there is a scenario where KC scores 40-50 points and Green Bay just can't hang.

Alex Smith Rushing Yards Over 17.5 (-115)
Smith ran for 15 yards in each of the first two games. Green Bay gave up 31 rushing yards to Jay Cutler and 78 yards to Russell Wilson. I don't think he's going to get quite as many as Russell, but I definitely like him over 17.5.

Aaron Rodgers Rushing Yards Over 20.5 (-125)
This one is a little harder to read, because KC has faced Peyton Manning, Brian Hoyer, and Ryan Mallett. Those guys have combined for one rush attempt total through two games, and it was for 6 yards. Rodgers ran 8 times for 35 yards against Chicago and 6 times for 23 yards against Seattle. I'm addicted to betting quarterback rush overs, so hell yes I like him to go for 20+ tonight.

Jeremy Maclin Receiving Yards Over 60.5 (-125)
Maclin went for 52 yards against Houston and 57 yards against Denver. So why is his total for this game this high? I have no idea but I know that Vegas is smarter than me so I'm hopping on the Maclin train and we are full steam ahead away from Logic Station.

Thursday Night Recap: Redskins @ Giants

Guys, I'm sorry. I forgot the Redskins stink. I'll keep this recap short.

Redskins +4 (Loss) 
Redskins Moneyline (Loss)

The Giants pretty much dominated from start to finish, and even though they only won by 11 it was really never in doubt that the moneyline was a bust.

Alfred Morris Rushing Yards Over 61.5 (Loss)

Is 6 carries for 19 yards good? Christ, was this the Redskins or the Eagles?

Eli Manning To Throw An Interception (Loss)
Kirk Cousins To Throw An Interception (Win)

Kirk actually doubled up on INTs last night. Good for him, it's nice to see that kind of fire in a quarterback.

Jordan Reed Over 5 Receptions (Win)

Let's end on a high note. The lock of the night cleared his receptions number with ease (by one, he finished the game with 6 catches).

Fuck the NFC East.

Thursday Night Preview: Redskins @ Giants

I really enjoy when there is only one football game on at a time, the whole world is watching it, and we can pay really close attention to everything that is going on in the game.

Don't get me wrong, I love Saturdays and Sundays too, but there's something extra special for me about going super in-depth into stats and history and projections for one specific game. We went 3-7 in week one's Monday game because I like the Eagles too much, 4-4-1 in week two's Thursday game, and 4-2 in week two's Monday game. That adds up to (calculator) 11-13-2 so far for the season, which isn't that bad when you consider I've been listening to the guys on 97.5 talk about how fucking good the Birds were going to be this year for six months.

Tonight, that game is Redskins @ Giants. I almost don't even want to write the rest of this post. This might be the least-watched Thursday night game all season. Who else is worse than this? Maybe Colts-Texans in a few weeks, but even there Andrew Luck might turn it around and JJ Watt is always a huge douchebag big draw. Browns-Bengals is probably a contender, as are Titans-Jaguars, Bucs-Rams, and (gulp) Redskins-Eagles to close the TNF season.

Here's the crazy part about the NFL's influence in the good old US of A: I don't even like the sport of football that much, my team is looking like they won't contend, and I will probably still watch (or at least follow) all of those steaming piles of garbage that they put on TV on Thursday nights.

Plus, I have a mild gambling problem.

Bovada is down "for maintenance", so today's lines are from my side chick, Sportsbook.ag. [Update: I put the Bovada lines/odds in because Bovada is bae.]

Redskins summary: (Game 1) Lost at home to the Dolphins 17-10 but held Miami to 182 passing yards and 74 rushing yards. Kirk Cousins threw two interceptions, but the 'Skins ran for 161 yards as a team. (Game 2) Beat the Rams at home 24-10 and held St. Louis to 150 passing yards and 67 rushing yards. Another strong showing on the ground from Washington, who had Matt Jones and Alfred Morris combine for 182 yards and two touchdowns.

Giants summary: (Game 1) Lost on the road to the Cowboys 27-26 and only scored one offensive touchdown. Their other points came on a touchdown return on a Cole Beasley fumble and four field goals. New York's defense also picked off Tony Romo twice, but Romo outperformed Eli in QBR 85.9 to 45.4. (Game 2) Lost at home to the Falcons 24-20 and Eli was significantly outperformed by Matt Ryan, who beat him in QBR by a score of 90.8 to 50.5.

Redskins +3.5 (-110) and Redskins Moneyline (+160) [Skins +4 (-120) and +155]
Redskins Total Points Over 20.5 (-120) [Over 19.5 (-135)]

In both of their first two games, New York's opponent has rushed the ball fewer than 25 times for a total of no more than 80 yards. Washington has run the ball 37 times each game for 161 and 182 yards. Sportsbook has the line on Kirk Cousins' passing yards at 243.5. I am absolutely fucking not betting on Kirk Cousins, but it shows us that Vegas thinks Kirk is going to have success the same way Romo and Ryan did.

Alfred Morris Rushing Yards Over 61.5 (-115) [Over 57.5 (-125)]

We know Washington is going run the crap out of the ball with Morris and Matt Jones. The big question: does the split between those two look more like week one when Morris had 25 and Jones had 6, or week two when Morris had 18 and Jones had 19? I think it returns more to normal, and I think Vegas expects people to get too caught up in the "flash in the pan" just like we always do when someone has one good week.

Jordan Reed Over 5 Receptions (+100) [Over 5 (-115)]

He had 7 catches against Miami and 6 against St. Louis. Toss in that we can push if he gets to five, and the fact that New York allowed 4 receptions by Jacob Tamme (Atlanta), 8 by Jason Witten and 2 by Gavin Escobar (Dallas), and I feel very confident about this one.

Eli Manning To Throw An Interception (-140) [-140]
Kirk Cousins To Throw An Interception (-185) [-190]

Come on, it's Eli and Kirk Cousins.

Monday Night Football Recap: Jets @ Colts

I stole this from the AP website and I don't know if that's legal?

Gambling, a lot of times, makes you feel like a scumbag. If you are on a losing streak, the act of wagering any money at all really makes you question what you are doing with your life. 

But if you're in the zone (or even anywhere close to the zone), then gambling is the best goddamn activity in the whole world. Last night's ticket:

Jets +7 (-120) (Win)

Jets +3.5 (+120)

Jets Moneyline (+225)

I mentioned each of these at points in the blog last night and based my preference on whether or not T.Y. Hilton played. He did play, so I would have gone with Jets plus a touchdown. But Hilton only managed 4 catches for 45 yards (#RevisIsland) and obviously the moneyline would have been the play. 

Ryan Fitzpatrick Passing Yards Over 210.5 (Win)

Ryan Fitzpatrick Passing Touchdowns Over 1.5 (Win)

The Colts defense stinks. They got torched - or as torched as you can get by Johnny Manziel and one of the McCown brothers - last week against the Browns. This week they got lit up by Fitzpatrick, who threw Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker a combined 15 passes for 198 yards and 2 touchdowns. 

Chris Ivory Rushing Yards Over 74.5 (Loss)

Chris Ivory To Score A Touchdown (Loss)

I did not realize that the Jets were going to split their carries almost right down the middle between Ivory and Bilal Powell. 

*Lock Of The Night* 

Andrew Luck Rushing Yards Over 19.5 (Win)

On a night where one of the league's "elite" quarterbacks finished with a 56.7% completion rate for less than seven yards per attempt and three interceptions, you might have expected him to lose all of his player props. Not the lock of the night, though:

 

I'm going to be honest with you guys. I have no idea how ESPN is counting luck at 24 rushing yards. That ten yard rush to take it from 14 to 24 was called back because of a holding penalty. Andrew, do you know what happened here?

Yeah, neither do I, but I'll take it. 4-2 on the night. 

Bonus Comedic Eagles Reference

Chip Kelly was right for once!

Monday Night Football Preview: Jets @ Colts

Because this worked out so well for us last time (haha), we dug through all 75 bets available on Bovada tonight so we can make some money off these two teams that are both going to miss the playoffs because they both stink. 

Point Spread: New York Jets +7 (-120)

The Jets beat the Browns 31-10 last week. The Colts lost 27-14 to the Bills. The Browns then beat the Titans in week two, while the Bills lost at home to the Patriots. Ipso facto, Jets are winning this game #outright (but I don't like that enough to bet it at +225).

The biggest different from week one to week two, at least as far as this spread is concerned, is the difference between the Jets' opponents. Last week they held Johnny Manziel to 13/24 attempts for 182 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Josh McCown did a little better (I guess), going 5/8 for 49 yards.

Andrew Luck is better than Manziel or McCown, and he throws it about twice as many times per game as the Browns. Last week, the Bills held him to 26/49 attempts for 243 yards and two touchdowns, but he also threw two interceptions. He rushed 4 times for 20 yards (nice), and the Jets gave up a total of 58 rushing yards to Manziel and McCown. I love betting on quarterback rushing props, and tonight is no different. My lock of the night:

Andrew Luck Rushing Yards Over 19.5 (-125)

Luck threw 28.5% of his attempts (and 26.9% of his completions) to T.Y. Hilton, who is either going to sit out tonight with a knee injury or get put on Revis Island. When he gets ruled out for the game, I might have the balls to take a more Jets-friendly spread.

New York Jets +3.5 (+120) or New York Jets Outright +225

On the other side of the ball, New York is going to have a few decent options for getting into the end zone. This is a Colts team that allowed Tyrod Taylor to complete almost 75% of his passes for a QBR of 88.2. Tyrod Taylor. What do you think #Harvard graduate Ryan Fitzpatrick is going to do tonight? I'll tell you what he's going to do:

Ryan Fitzpatrick Passing Yards Over 210.5 (-130) and Touchdown Passes Over 1.5 (-125)

And the Jets aren't even really a passing team. I expect Chris Ivory to go OFF tonight, and Vegas tends to agree. They have his over/under for rushing yards at 74.5, which is only a hair lower than Last Year's League-Leading Rusher DeMarco Murray. Ivory to get into the endzone also pays out like somebody who Vegas expects to score but plays on a team that may end up scoring no touchdowns all night.

Chris Ivory Rushing Yards Over 74.5 (-125) and To Score A Touchdown (+120)

Thursday Night Football Recap

Unfortunately, I did not make it until the end of last night's game. I actually didn't even make it through the first half. When I went to sleep, it was 14-0 Chiefs and it looked like our KC -3 bet was all good.

And then I woke up this morning, checked the ESPN app, and it turns out that it turned into a pretty back-and-forth game:

So it would appear that the teams traded touchdowns all night, and Denver scored the last one. Damn, that's a tough way to lose a game. Let's look at that fourth quarter:

(Puts gun in mouth)

How'd we do on the props?

Alex Smith Passing Yards Over 220.5 (Loss)

Alex Smith Passing Touchdowns Over 1.5 (Loss)

Travis Kelce To Score A Touchdown (Loss)

Smith  finished under 200 yards, with two interceptions and zero touchdowns. Related, Kelce did not catch a touchdown (because there were none thrown by the red team).

Jamaal Charles Over 4 Receptions (Push)

At this point, I'm going to count the push as a moral win. 

Alex Smith To Throw An Interception (Win)

Hey, we got one!

Peyton Manning To Throw An Interception (Win)

Uh oh, the money train is heating up!

Total Sacks In The Game Over 5 (Win)

This one wasn't posted because we fired it off later in the afternoon. But DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller each had one sack, Justin Houston had two, and the rest of the guys on the field combined for three more. 

Emmanuel Sanders To Score A Touchdown (Win)

Sometimes, you have to bet with your heart instead of your head. On a team with a quarterback that seemed to be struggling, with other receiving options like Demarius Thomas and Owen Daniels available in the red zone, why would you bet on Sanders to score? Well I did because I'm the greatest football better there is. 

On the night: 4-4-1 (okay, maybe like eighth-greatest)

Thursday Night Preview: Broncos @ Chiefs

We started off REAL hot last week in the NFL section of our portfolio with Tom Brady sticking it to the haters and a perfect 6-0 ticket on Sunday. But then we took the Eagles and Sam Bradford, and life gave us the old Hermione newspaper wack.

We are not the chosen one. We actually stink a lot of the time. But KC -3 at home over an elderly-looking Peyton Manning on short rest was locked in before last weekend even ended. That's the primary bet tonight (and you should adopt that bet immediately), but there are a few decent player/team props out there also.

While looking up some stats for this blog, the biggest thing that jumps out at me is the fact that last week's Baltimore-Denver game was an absolute dumpster fire. The (supposedly elite) quarterbacks combined for 0 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. All of the running backs on both sides combined for 143 yards and less than 3 yards per carry. The only points besides kicks were interceptions that were returned for touchdowns.

Alex Smith Passing Yards Over 220.5 (-130) and Touchdown Passes Over 1.5 (-125)
The big question for tonight is whether or not Denver's defense can bring Alex Smith down to Peyton Manning's level and turn the game into a low-scoring slugfest. That's an absurd sentence to say, but I think Smith will be able to move the ball against Denver the same way he did against Houston, when he threw for 243 yards and 3 touchdowns. Now, I do not think he's going for 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions again. Because Denver's secondary came out firing against Joe Flacco. Thus...

Alex Smith To Throw An Interception (-140)
It's Alex Smith, so you know he's due for one.

Travis Kelce To Score A Touchdown (+120)
He had 106 yards and 2 touchdowns last week do I don't understand how this payout starts with a plus sign. Easy money.

Peyton Manning To Throw An Interception (-155)
Imagine a world where Vegas thinks Peyton Manning is more likely to throw an interception than Alex Goddamn Smith. It's bananas. But I think KC's defense gets this done (and maybe more than once).

Jamaal Charles Over 4 Receptions (-130) 
Smith targeted him 8 times last week, and he caught 5 of them. As I type that out, I realize it makes no sense to bet on him to be utilized more in the passing game. BUT. Jeremy Maclin was questionable and is now probable, and he was targeted 9 times last week. Somehow, that means more catches for Charles.

Emmanuel Sanders To Score A Touchdown (+140)
I hate this bet because I cannot stand Sanders. I hate watching him because he carries himself like a throwback diva wide receiver, and the league has moved past that era. Every time he makes a catch he starts yapping at the defense, and I noticed that he was doing a LOT of catching and yapping last week. Peyton targeted him 12 times! I'm hoping to see something similar tonight, but this time I want a touchdown celebration. You don't have to be an asshole, Emmanuel. Just get in the end zone and do a little dance.

Just such an asshole face. 

Well Last Night Was Pretty Shitty

Guys, we got sucked into it again. Twenty minutes of good preseason football against a Packers team without a bunch of its core and we thought the Birds were going 19-0. The Super Bowl was in our sights. Sam Bradford was going to be the MVP and the comeback player of the year.

And most importantly, we were going to get rich off of week one player props. To the scoreboard:

Eagles -3 (Loss) 
Eagles Team Total Over 28.5 (Loss)
Sam Bradford Over 2 Touchdowns Passes (Loss)
These three go hand in hand (in hand?), and there is quite a bit of blame to dish out. Most of it has to go to Chip, who spent like nine figures on running backs this summer and gave them a total of sixteen carries combined.

That said, the passing attack looks good in the box score if you just look at the receivers. There was a lot of yardage to go around and that piece of the puzzle largely looked solid in the second half. But Bradford just absolutely can NOT throw that second pick on the final drive. We were expecting him to be our savior, an elite quarterback rescued from a dumpster fire in the Midwest. But that last drive (and the whole first half, and the lone touchdown for the night) was decidedly not elite.

DeMarco Murray Rushing Yards Over 82.5 (Loss)

DeMarco finished with eight carries for nine yards. Nailed it!

Nelson Agholor To Score A Touchdown (Loss)

Nelson finished with one garbage time catch for five yards. Nailed that one too!

Either Team To Score A Special Teams Or Defensive TD (Loss)

The Eagles did not return a kick all night, and Sproles' longest punt return was just 15 yards. The Falcons averaged 20 yards on their kick returns and 9 yards on their punt returns. I defend the logic of this bet, because Chip has had success in the special teams game in the past. 

Bradford Over 275.5 Passing Yards (Win)

Matt Ryan To Throw An Interception (Win)

Falcons Team Total Under 27 (Win)

Hey, we got a few right!

Either Team To Score 3 Unanswered Times 

In my analysis, I wrote "If you look at the fourth quarter box score tomorrow, you will see why this was a Yes. Eagles 21-0 in the fourth quarter." Neither team scored 3 unanswered times, but the Eagles did win the fourth quarter (7-6). So we will call this one a win and end on a high note.

Eagles-Falcons MNF Betting Guide

We've already talked about how Eagles -3 tonight is the lock of the week. It's a disrespectful line and it looks like it was set by somebody who doesn't have a clue how good the Birds looked all preseason. We also talked about how Eagles -10.5 seems like it should be the regular spread, but somehow it pays out more than 2/1. More free money.

But when you get into the player props for tonight, there's so much free money laying around that it's almost laughable.

Eagles Team Total Over 28.5 (-135) - Easy over. They might clear that by halftime.

Falcons Team Total Under 27 (-115) - Frankly I'd be surprised if the Falcons scored more than two touchdowns.

Will Either Team Score 3 Unanswered Times? Yes (-200) - If you look at the fourth quarter box score tomorrow, you will see why this was a Yes. Eagles 21-0 in the fourth quarter.

Nelson Agholor to Score a Touchdown (+150) - Rookie of the year campaign has to start somewhere.

Sam Bradford Passing Yards Over 275.5 (-125) - I guess this would be a good time to mention that all of these predictions hinge on Bradford not getting put on the back of a golf cart with his legs bent in opposite directions.

Sam Bradford Touchdown Passes Over 2 (-140) - If he doesn't go over then I have no hope in FanDuel this week. If he doesn't at least push then I will eat my own shorts.

Matt Ryan To Throw an Interception (-180) - The payout is pretty shitty, but it's always a ton of fun to yell "THROW A PICK YOU PIECE OF SHIT" and really, truly mean it.

DeMarco Murray Rushing Yards Over 82.5 (-125) - There were three games last year when DeMarco didn't go over 82 yards. One of them was against Philly. And before you even think about saying something about the Cowboys' offensive line last year, they just beastmoded their rushing attack to 81 yards against a defense anchored by a guy with one arm.

(Quick note: the Falcons do not have a running back listed for "rushing props")

Either Team To Score a Special Teams of Defensive TD (+150) - I am including this to cap the ticket because it seems like too much value. In a game where the over/under is set to put each team in the 20-30 points range, it feels like at least some of that has to come from Darren Sproles returning a punt for a touchdown.

Week 2 College/Week 1 NFL Recap

Coming out of the weekend like:

We opened the weekend with Tom Brady going over his 2.5 touchdowns in the first half.

We hit on Miami on Friday night. We stayed away from FSU on Saturday morning. The Ole Miss/PSU/Georgia teaser hit. The Clemson/Georgia teaser hit (that was a game time decision, sorry). And the crown jewel of the football Saturday, our "The SEC is Good and the Big 12 is Bad" teaser hit as Alabama/Texas A&M/Tennessee all covered their adjusted spreads. Look for next week's teaser where we apply the same logic.

And then Sunday. Oh, Sunday. Green Bay, Kansas City, and Miami all covered early. Arizona, Cincy, and Denver all covered late. We were thinking about betting on Dallas late, but Bovada smiled down on us and wouldn't let us bet it. So we ended with a perfect 6-0 Sunday.

If you are wondering why I didn't post an NFL preview, it's because I wasn't in the cube on Saturday so I didn't need anything to kill time. Sorry. Venmo me money and I will start posting our picks on Saturdays.

To cap the weekend (when you think of the weekend as Thursday-Monday, life isn't so bad), we are on the Eagles -3 tonight. Greenbirds -10.5 pays +240 if you're looking for something more interesting.

Bullets Blog NFL Survivor Pool

As part of the best time of the year, we're hosting an NFL survivor pool. The rules are simple:

• Pick one team each week that you think is going to win (straight up, no point spreads)
• Your pick must be submitted before the game you are picking kicks off
• If your team wins, you survive to the next week
• If your team loses, you are done (Update: double elimination)
• You can only pick each team once
• Last man standing wins - if we have to carry it into the playoffs, we will

To enter each week you can either go to this link (http://goo.gl/forms/dLuxUpdRqV) or bookmark this post and fill in this form:



We will post a recap each week on Tuesday. Good luck!

Weekend Update

I wanted to use a picture from Kevin Nealon's time as the Weekend Update anchor, and there is one of him and Adam Sandler that summarized the start to this weekend well:

Our first best was Western Kentucky -4 over Central Michigan. If you're reading this, I assume you know that this game was a heartbreaker and made me want to crawl into a hole. Complete devastation.

But, as the old saying goes, if you are a shooter then you have to keep shooting until you hit something because that's what shooters have to do. So we sacked up and killed the rest of the weekend.

Boxing day teaser: Rutgers +10.5 over UNC (Rutgers won 40-21) and Louisiana Tech Pick'em over Illinois (La Tech won 35-18). The best place to be as a bettor is "Damn, we didn't even need to tease because we nailed those picks so well."

Saturday college hoops teaser: Kentucky -2.5 over Louisville (Kentucky won 58-50) and Gonzaga -1 over BYU (Gonzaga won 87-80). We are really high on the Wildcats and Bulldogs this year. If you happened to watch these games, you can see why. Kentucky held Louisville to one assist the whole game. One assist! And Gonzaga can score inside and out, and they seem a lot like this Villanova team we all love so much.

Sunday NFL teaser: Normally, we try to avoid having games from different times of day on the same ticket. Yesterday, we had games in all 3 time slots. Early, we had Saints +3 over Bucs (Saints won 23-20). In the afternoon, we had Packers Pick'em over Lions (Packers won 30-20) and Cardinals +14 over 49ers (Niners won, but only 20-17). So, if you're following, we were the night game away from hitting a +200 teaser. We decided to hedge our late bet of Steelers +3.5 by also betting a little bit on Bengals -3.5 (which paid +240). The way it set up, if Pittsburgh won, we basically hit +150. If Cincinnati won, we basically broke even. We hedged, so of course the Steelers won 27-17.

But hey, when you win your bet every day for three days, how much can you really complain?

Weekend Update

What a weekend! We got off to a ROCKY start on Friday night. The Kentucky/Kansas portion of our teaser hit (and the Kansas game was a wild one to have money on Kansas). Then Oregon tore off Arizona's pants in the Pac-12 title game and ruined the whole goddamn thing.

To start off college Saturday, we threw some money on the Alma mater to cover three touchdowns against little brother, and they did. Wildcats are a legit team this year, top to bottom.

We thought about taking Ohio State football against Wisconsin, but we were at the bar and never really got around to it. They won by a million. Hate leaving money on the table, but hate losing money even more, so no harm done.

On to NFL Sunday - we teased Texans/Colts early, and the Colts almost ruined the whole thing. Squeaking out a last-minute win against the Browns wasn't pretty and is a terrible sign if you're a Colts fan.

The Texans, on the other hand, are only 2 games back in the AFC South with games against the Colts, Ravens, and Jags (in addition to Houston, Indy plays Dallas and Tennessee). Indy is a 7 point home favorite next week, but if JJ Watt can find a way to win that... you never know. (Update: Bovada just posted their odds to win each division and you cannot bet on the AFC South, even though the Texans could finish 10-6 and the Colts could finish 9-7.)

Our nightcap was Patriots -4.5 over the Chargers, which was never really in doubt. We considered teasing that with San Diego +10.5 (which would have become +14.5) against UCLA, but decided not to complicate things. As it turns out, UCLA was a tad overrated and only won by 7. They will not be making the cut for the pyramid this week.

As for that updated college basketball pyramid:

Only one addition, Rock Chalk in the Good category. Florida might be able to sneak into the Decent category but as it stands now they're 3-4 with losses to Miami, Georgetown, UNC, and Kansas (and wins over three flaming dumpsters). Nevermind, Florida isn't getting into the Pyramid, and now I'm tempted to take Yale +10 tonight in Gainesville.