Thursday, September 17, 2015

Thursday Night Preview: Broncos @ Chiefs

We started off REAL hot last week in the NFL section of our portfolio with Tom Brady sticking it to the haters and a perfect 6-0 ticket on Sunday. But then we took the Eagles and Sam Bradford, and life gave us the old Hermione newspaper wack.

We are not the chosen one. We actually stink a lot of the time. But KC -3 at home over an elderly-looking Peyton Manning on short rest was locked in before last weekend even ended. That's the primary bet tonight (and you should adopt that bet immediately), but there are a few decent player/team props out there also.

While looking up some stats for this blog, the biggest thing that jumps out at me is the fact that last week's Baltimore-Denver game was an absolute dumpster fire. The (supposedly elite) quarterbacks combined for 0 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. All of the running backs on both sides combined for 143 yards and less than 3 yards per carry. The only points besides kicks were interceptions that were returned for touchdowns.

Alex Smith Passing Yards Over 220.5 (-130) and Touchdown Passes Over 1.5 (-125)
The big question for tonight is whether or not Denver's defense can bring Alex Smith down to Peyton Manning's level and turn the game into a low-scoring slugfest. That's an absurd sentence to say, but I think Smith will be able to move the ball against Denver the same way he did against Houston, when he threw for 243 yards and 3 touchdowns. Now, I do not think he's going for 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions again. Because Denver's secondary came out firing against Joe Flacco. Thus...

Alex Smith To Throw An Interception (-140)
It's Alex Smith, so you know he's due for one.

Travis Kelce To Score A Touchdown (+120)
He had 106 yards and 2 touchdowns last week do I don't understand how this payout starts with a plus sign. Easy money.

Peyton Manning To Throw An Interception (-155)
Imagine a world where Vegas thinks Peyton Manning is more likely to throw an interception than Alex Goddamn Smith. It's bananas. But I think KC's defense gets this done (and maybe more than once).

Jamaal Charles Over 4 Receptions (-130) 
Smith targeted him 8 times last week, and he caught 5 of them. As I type that out, I realize it makes no sense to bet on him to be utilized more in the passing game. BUT. Jeremy Maclin was questionable and is now probable, and he was targeted 9 times last week. Somehow, that means more catches for Charles.

Emmanuel Sanders To Score A Touchdown (+140)
I hate this bet because I cannot stand Sanders. I hate watching him because he carries himself like a throwback diva wide receiver, and the league has moved past that era. Every time he makes a catch he starts yapping at the defense, and I noticed that he was doing a LOT of catching and yapping last week. Peyton targeted him 12 times! I'm hoping to see something similar tonight, but this time I want a touchdown celebration. You don't have to be an asshole, Emmanuel. Just get in the end zone and do a little dance.

Just such an asshole face. 

No comments:

Post a Comment