Tuesday, September 8, 2015

Tuesday Afternoon Euro Qualifying Preview

Guys, it's the worst day ever. Summer is over. You're sunburned. It's a million degrees outside. You're back in the cube from now until Christmas.

There is one bright spot to cheer up your weekday afternoons: European soccer starts at like 2pm here, because time zones. Between club and international futbol, there always seems to be something to occupy the post-lunch lull at work.

Today, we're going to load up on the Euro qualifiers. Most of these teams have played 7 matches so far, so we should have a pretty solid baseline to judge how things are going to end up. Let's jump right in:

Belarus (-290) v. Luxembourg (+750)
I can't figure out why Belarus is so heavily favored in this matchup. Bovada has them as pretty sizable favorite given how close they are in the table. In a classic "I'm going to regret this later because Vegas knows more than me about everything move", I think the play here is Luxembourg +1.5 (-130). It's a decent payout and it gives us a little room to breathe.

Macedonia (+1800) v. Spain (-700)
You aren't going to bet on Macedonia. And unless you're planning on parlaying Spain with at least one other game, you have to give up some goals to make it worth anything. Personally, I like Spain -1.5 (-185) as a bet with a decent payout and a really good chance of coming true. The Spaniards are averaging a little more than two goals per game, and they should be able to go clean sheet against this Macedonia team (that would pay -250, by the way).

Slovakia (+175) v. Ukraine (+180)
If you bet on this game, you have a problem.

Georgia (-2000) v. Gibraltar (+2500)
This game kicked off before this post went up, but I wanted to include it because MINUS FORTY-FOUR GOALS IN EIGHT GAMES.

England (-140) v. Switzerland (+400)
This is an easy England bet. They're riding high off their annual romp of San Marino, and their roster is just too stacked to lose to an inferior team (this early, give them until at least after qualifiers). 

Lithuania (-2000) v. San Marino (+5000)
Slovenia (-200) v. Estonia (+575)
If you bet these, call for help.

Liechtenstein (+1800) v. Russia (-750)
Similar to the Spain situation, you have to give up some goals to make a Russia bet worthwhile. And Russia just doesn't score enough to justify giving them 1.5 or 2.5 goals. I'm staying away from this one.

Sweden (+115) v. Austria (+240)
I can't really tell for sure, but I think the Swedish National Team site is telling us that Zlatan is starting. That's good enough for me, I'll take Sweden to win please and thank you.  

Moldova (+310) v. Montenegro (Even)
I don't feel confident putting money on a small team like Montenegro away from home (even though I think they will win). However, Bovada has the over/under at 2 goals here and the over pays -115. It would be surprising to see it stay under, and I like the ability to push if it happens to end 1-1 or 2-0. I'm going to cross my fingers, hope for 2-1 Montenegro, and run into traffic when it ends 1-0.

No comments:

Post a Comment