Thursday, September 24, 2015

Thursday Night Preview: Redskins @ Giants

I really enjoy when there is only one football game on at a time, the whole world is watching it, and we can pay really close attention to everything that is going on in the game.

Don't get me wrong, I love Saturdays and Sundays too, but there's something extra special for me about going super in-depth into stats and history and projections for one specific game. We went 3-7 in week one's Monday game because I like the Eagles too much, 4-4-1 in week two's Thursday game, and 4-2 in week two's Monday game. That adds up to (calculator) 11-13-2 so far for the season, which isn't that bad when you consider I've been listening to the guys on 97.5 talk about how fucking good the Birds were going to be this year for six months.

Tonight, that game is Redskins @ Giants. I almost don't even want to write the rest of this post. This might be the least-watched Thursday night game all season. Who else is worse than this? Maybe Colts-Texans in a few weeks, but even there Andrew Luck might turn it around and JJ Watt is always a huge douchebag big draw. Browns-Bengals is probably a contender, as are Titans-Jaguars, Bucs-Rams, and (gulp) Redskins-Eagles to close the TNF season.

Here's the crazy part about the NFL's influence in the good old US of A: I don't even like the sport of football that much, my team is looking like they won't contend, and I will probably still watch (or at least follow) all of those steaming piles of garbage that they put on TV on Thursday nights.

Plus, I have a mild gambling problem.

Bovada is down "for maintenance", so today's lines are from my side chick, [Update: I put the Bovada lines/odds in because Bovada is bae.]

Redskins summary: (Game 1) Lost at home to the Dolphins 17-10 but held Miami to 182 passing yards and 74 rushing yards. Kirk Cousins threw two interceptions, but the 'Skins ran for 161 yards as a team. (Game 2) Beat the Rams at home 24-10 and held St. Louis to 150 passing yards and 67 rushing yards. Another strong showing on the ground from Washington, who had Matt Jones and Alfred Morris combine for 182 yards and two touchdowns.

Giants summary: (Game 1) Lost on the road to the Cowboys 27-26 and only scored one offensive touchdown. Their other points came on a touchdown return on a Cole Beasley fumble and four field goals. New York's defense also picked off Tony Romo twice, but Romo outperformed Eli in QBR 85.9 to 45.4. (Game 2) Lost at home to the Falcons 24-20 and Eli was significantly outperformed by Matt Ryan, who beat him in QBR by a score of 90.8 to 50.5.

Redskins +3.5 (-110) and Redskins Moneyline (+160) [Skins +4 (-120) and +155]
Redskins Total Points Over 20.5 (-120) [Over 19.5 (-135)]

In both of their first two games, New York's opponent has rushed the ball fewer than 25 times for a total of no more than 80 yards. Washington has run the ball 37 times each game for 161 and 182 yards. Sportsbook has the line on Kirk Cousins' passing yards at 243.5. I am absolutely fucking not betting on Kirk Cousins, but it shows us that Vegas thinks Kirk is going to have success the same way Romo and Ryan did.

Alfred Morris Rushing Yards Over 61.5 (-115) [Over 57.5 (-125)]

We know Washington is going run the crap out of the ball with Morris and Matt Jones. The big question: does the split between those two look more like week one when Morris had 25 and Jones had 6, or week two when Morris had 18 and Jones had 19? I think it returns more to normal, and I think Vegas expects people to get too caught up in the "flash in the pan" just like we always do when someone has one good week.

Jordan Reed Over 5 Receptions (+100) [Over 5 (-115)]

He had 7 catches against Miami and 6 against St. Louis. Toss in that we can push if he gets to five, and the fact that New York allowed 4 receptions by Jacob Tamme (Atlanta), 8 by Jason Witten and 2 by Gavin Escobar (Dallas), and I feel very confident about this one.

Eli Manning To Throw An Interception (-140) [-140]
Kirk Cousins To Throw An Interception (-185) [-190]

Come on, it's Eli and Kirk Cousins.

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