Thursday, September 10, 2015

Week 2 College Football Preview

Week 1 did not go so well. Bovada wouldn't let us tease Georgia-Arkansas, so naturally both teams won by a hundred and we were left twiddling our thumbs. Bovada did let us tease Alabama-USC, so the weekend wasn't a total wash. Full disclosure: I was at the beach so I didn't really look too much into the games before the weekend started.

But I'm back! Let's preview some games:

Miami -17.5 @ Florida Atlantic, Friday, 8pm
If you look at preseason odds, Miami was picked to be a mid-tier ACC team. They are, without question, projected below the FSU-Clemson-Georgia Tech group at the top of the conference, but the 'Canes should be decent this year. They beat Bethune-Cookman last week by six and a half touchdowns.

Similarly, Florida Atlantic projects as a middle-of-the-pack Conference USA team. They probably won't win (especially since they already lost to Tulsa), but there are a few teams that are supposed to be substantially worse than the (searches for the FAU mascot) Owls. That Tulsa loss was 46-44, which is not a good sign when you have to face an offense like Miami's.

I see the U putting up a lot of points and covering. Pick: Miami -17.5 (and if it happens to move inside 17, jump on it)

Florida State -28 vs. South Florida, Saturday, 11:30am
I probably won't ever bet against FSU this season because their offense is just too goddamn explosive, but four touchdowns is a LOT to cover against a USF team that put up 51 points last week. Granted, that game was against Florida A&M (Amphetamines & Meth LOL), but even if the Bulls manage to hang 21 on FSU I would worry.

I think I'm staying away from a point spread and looking for the over when that line gets released. If that line gets set below 60, I'm in.

Saturday Early Afternoon Big Teaser: Ole Miss -20 vs. Fresno State, Penn State -11 vs. Buffalo, Georgia -11 @ Vanderbilt
That's a ten point tease to get Ole Miss down to three touchdowns and PSU/UGA down to two touchdowns. Ole Miss looked incredible last week, but #fourtouchdownsisalot. Penn State looked incredibly bad last week in their loss to Temple, but I think they might have some incentive to take that out on the Bulls in front of the home crowd, no? And Georgia is so much better than Vanderbilt that I almost want to take them outright but I like it as the third piece of this teaser.

Saturday Night "The SEC is Good and the Big 12 is Bad" Teaser: Alabama -25.5 vs. Middle Tennessee, Texas A&M -20 vs. Ball State, Tennessee +11.5 vs. Oklahoma
Because of those rules we discussed in the week one recap, I have 100% confidence that this teaser will blow up in the most agonizing way possible.

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