College Football Season Prop Recap: Week Four

It's Monday morning. I'm working with a four day hangover. I almost just turned my alarm off and took the day off of work. Looking back on that decision from my desk, I very clearly made the wrong decision.

But I'm at work, so I might as well work, right? Instead of doing actual work, though, I'm going to recap the eventful weekend we had with our season-long bets on Washington, FSU, Tennessee, and Oklahoma.

Let's start off with the easy one.

Oklahoma Had A Bye Week

And man, they needed it. They played Houston and Ohio State in weeks one and three, and they come out of the bye against TCU and then Texas. Those two games are the season for the Sooners; they could end up 3-2 (2-0 in the conference) with a manageable schedule the rest of the way, or they could end up 1-4 (0-2 in the conference) and be completely dead before mid-October.

Confidence Level: Well, It's Either Us Or Baylor Or West Virginia

#9 Washington Beat Arizona, 35-28 (OT)

We knew this game was going to be a lot different from the cakewalk the Huskies had for the first three games of the season. Arizona was the first "real" team they had to play.

Quarterback Jake Browning came back down to earth from his usual 300+ yards and 4+ touchdowns, finishing with 160 yards, 2 touchdowns (including the overtime winner), and an interception. But the real story was the Washington running game combining for 352 yards, 3 touchdown, and 6.9 yards per carry. That, against an Arizona defense that allowed an average of about 150 yards per game and 4-ish yards per carry is a very good sign.

Part two of the trilogy of rough games is at Stanford next week.

Confidence Level: Somewhat Moderately High

#13 Florida State Beat South Florida, 55-35

At one point on Saturday afternoon, I checked my phone and this game was tied 14-14. I had bad thoughts, and I thought FSU might blow it.

From that point, the 'Noles scored three towndowns and kicked a field goal to go into halftime with a 38-14 lead. The two teams traded shots for the second half, and it turned out to be a relatively comfortable win.

Deondre Francois was his usual comfortable freshman self, totaling 169 passing yards, 75 rushing yards, and one of each kind of touchdown. Dalvin Cook, per usual, was the star. My man went for 267 yards on 9.5 yards per carry and two scores.

The 'Noles got bumped up from 13 to 12 with the win, but they no longer control their own fate in the division. Louisville is going to have to lose twice to some combination of Clemson, Duke, NC State, Virginia, and Wake Forest.

Confidence Level: Not Great, Bob

#14 Tennessee Beat Florida, 38-28

You should already be reading Clay Travis' four posts per week, but just in case you missed his college football recap yesterday, he summed up this game perfectly:

The Vols started the season in the national top ten, but this is their first appearance in the Outkick top ten. After muddling their way through the App State and Ohio games and playing one good half against Virginia Tech, at halftime of the Florida game, with the Vols trailing 21-3, I was ready to pronounce them dead.

But then something remarkable happened -- the Vols posted one of the best halves in the history of the program, thoroughly dominating Florida, turning a 21-0 deficit into a 38-21 advantage.

The result? The Vols roar into our top ten. (Clay has them ranked 9th in the nation, the polls have them 11th.)

Confidence Level: I Wish It Was Higher But Georgia, Texas A&M, And Alabama Over The Next Three Weeks Is Really Fucking Daunting

College Football Season Prop Recap: Week Three

Sorry for the delay. I usually try to post these on Monday morning, but I was busy providing great client service and I got sidetracked from what really matters.

Let's dive right in.

#2 Florida State lost to Louisville

We're going to breeze right through this Noles summary. They got killed, Louisville looked awesome, and they have no chance of winning their division.

Confidence Level: Bad

#8 Washington beat Portland State

They walloped Portland State (fucking bearded flannel hipsters) and moved to 3-0 against three fairly unimpressive opponents. That said, any time you can win three weeks in a row by a combined 148-30, things are good.

So now the Huskies move from a really easy trio to a REALLY hard trio. At Arizona, host Stanford, at Oregon. That's the whole season right there, boys.

Quarterback Jake Browning has been almost flawless. Backup quarterback KJ Carta-Samuels has thrown a mop-up touchdown in every game. The rushing and receiving attacks have been balanced, and there are about a dozen guys that can realistically contribute in those roles. This first month has gone as well as it could have for Washington.

Confidence Level: Higher Than Florida State

#14 Oklahoma lost to #3 Ohio State

After opening the season with a loss to Houston, Oklahoma really wasn't supposed to beat Ohio State. And they did not.

Here's the only comparison you need to sum up the game. Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield threw two touchdowns and two interceptions. Ohio State's JT Barrett threw four touchdowns and no interceptions.

The saving grace for Oklahoma is the rest of the Big 12 kind of stinks. TCU is technically winning the conference now (at 1-0) after they beat Iowa State in the only Big 12 game so far this season. Baylor and West Virginia are undefeated, but they've played NWST, SMU, RICE, MIZ, and YSU. That's a considerable step down from Houston and Ohio State.

And then Texas, who is the only other ranked Big 12 team (Oklahoma dropped to #25). The Longhorns are currently #21 basically exclusively because they outlasted Notre Dame in that season opener. But Notre Dame scored 47 points on them, and ND's probably going to end up being an unranked team when this season is all said and done.

Confidence Level: Higher Than Washington

#15 Tennessee beat Ohio

Tennessee is like the exact opposite of Washington, even though they have identical 3-0 records.

The Vols came into this year as the favorite in the SEC East. The Huskies were more of a dark horse in the Pac-12 North.

The Huskies have absolutely dominated the easy portion of their schedule, beating everyone by 30+ points. The Vols needed overtime to beat Appalachian State, had a good showing against lowly Virginia Tech, and just this past week they only beat Ohio by 9 points. Single digits!

Josh Dobbs was, once again, just okay. Jalen Hurd is now the second best player in the SEC whose name starts with "Jalen Hur". Kicker Aaron Medley is just 3/5 on field goals for the season.

Confidence Level: Florida Might Beat Them By 30 This Week

College Football Season Prop Recap: Week Two

Coming into week two, we were riding high with Washington and Florida State and maybe a little bit concerned about Tennessee and Oklahoma. Given the level of competition our four teams were facing this weekend, it was really crucial that we ended the day with four big ("statement") wins. 

And we did. 

Oklahoma 59, Louisiana Monroe 17

Florida State 52, Charleston Southern 8

Washington 59, Idaho 14

Three games against non-power-conference schools, one combined score of 170-39. Obviously these three games were always supposed to be lopsided, but it's reassuring that none of them had any semblance of a scare this weekend. 

Let's take a look at some of the highlight performers, bullet-style:

• Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield and Austin Kendall combined for 352 yards and 5 touchdowns (Mayfield sat out the second half because it was such a blowout)
• Oklahoma's Joe Mixon and Abdul Adams ran for 117 and 91 yards respectively, and Samaje Perine had 58 yards and 2 touchdowns
• Oklahoma completed passed to 12 different receivers
• Florida State's Deondre Francois threw for 262 yards and 3 touchdown (with 1 interception)
• FSU's Dalvin Cook (Future Heisman Trophy Finalist) ran for 83 yards and 2 touchdowns
• Florida State's Travis Rudolph caught 7 passes for 105 yards and 2 touchdowns
• FSU's Jesus Wilson ran a punt back 89 yards for a touchdown
• Washington's Jake Browning threw for 295 yards and 5 touchdowns
• Here are the Huskies who caught touchdown passes: John Ross (2), Dante Pettis (2), Chico McClatcher, Quinten Pounds
• Chico McClatcher and Quinten Pounds. Just back in the glow of those names
• The Oklahoma and Washington kickers both kicked 8 extra points, and the Florida State kicker kicked 7 extra points

Confidence Level: Pretty Gosh Darn High for all three of these teams

It's really easy to pick out guys who had good days from these three games, because they were competing against significantly inferior talent. But what about the last team on our list? Tennessee was the only team to play against a power-conference team:

Tennessee 45, Virginia Tech 24

No problem. Granted, Va Tech kind of stinks now, but Tennessee rebounded nicely from their Week One struggles against Appalachian State. 

Josh Dobbs threw for just 91 yards, but he had 3 passing touchdowns, 105 rushing yards, and 2 rushing touchdowns. Jalen Hurd added 99 yards on 22 carries, and that was basically enough for the Vols to sink the Hokies. 

The most important stat of this game was the turnover battle. Dobbs threw an interception, but Virginia Tech lost FIVE fumbles. That is absolutely not something that will happen when Tennessee starts facing SEC competition, and the scoreboard would look a whole hell of a lot different if the Hokies has turned even two of those five into points. 

Confidence Level: Still Kind Of Low But Certainly Not As Low As Last Week

College Football Season Prop Recap: Week One

This day in the office is an absolutely must for any "Worst Work Days Of The Year" list. I'm basically nursing a four day hangover where all I drank was Bud Light and all I ate was eggs and cheesesteaks. There's a ton of work leftover from when I left at 2:30 on Friday, and an extra day's worth of shit to deal with from the long weekend.

But at least we had football this weekend, right?

As a reminder, we went with four season props this year. We bet the following teams to win their divisions (not conferences, other than Oklahoma because the Big XII has no divisions):

• Tennessee
• Oklahoma
• Washington
• Florida State

So we kicked off the weekend with Tennessee needing overtime to beat a Division 2 school, and then followed that up with Oklahoma losing to Houston. Then Washington blew out Rutgers and Florida State had their miracle second half and snuck a win away from Ole Miss. Let's do some deep dives:

Tennessee 20, Appalachian State 13 (OT)

Josh Dobbs was supposed to be the big swinging dick, best quarterback in the SEC, savior that steamrolled Tennessee to the SEC East championship. He kicked off his season with a 55% completion percentage, a single touchdown, an interception, and a QBR of 26.3. 

And this was against a Sun Belt team! App State is no longer Division 1-FCS, but they're still a team that should not be capable of taking a potential SEC Division Champion to overtime. 

Running back Jalen Hurd had a decent stat sheet - 28 carries, 110 yards, 1 touchdown. But he only averaged 3.9 yards per carry. What's going to happen when he's not playing against Future Enterprise Rent-A-Car Employees?

Confidence Level: Kind Of Low 

Oklahoma 23, Houston 33

This game, in retrospect, was all about field position. Both quarterbacks threw for 300+ yards and two touchdowns, both teams had decent but not great rushing attacks, and both offenses avoided turnovers. 

But Houston kicked four field goals and Oklahoma kicked one, and that's the whole game. 

Here's how the rest of the Big XII did: 

• Lost: Kansas State (Stanford), Iowa State (Northern Iowa)
• Beat A Shitty Team: Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Texas Tech
• Beat A Decent Team: West Virginia (Mizzou)
• Beat A Ranked Team: Texas (Notre Dame)

Confidence Level: Kind Of Low

Washington 48, Rutgers 13

Obviously, blowing out a power five team in the home opener is a great start. But Rutgers kind of stinks at football, so I'm going to try to temper my expectations here. 

Statistically, just about every aspect of this Huskies game was solid. Here are the nitpicky things that I see that could have been better:

• Jake Browning threw an interception. There, that one was easy. 
• Darrell Daniels dropped a touchdown pass. That's not good. 
• John Ross caught two touchdowns and ran a kick back for a third, but didn't score any touchdowns on punt returns. There's some room for improvement in his game. 
• Rutgers' quarterback is from Long Island and the Huskies only picked him off one time. 

This was a really tough exercise. Ross didn't score on a punt return because he doesn't return punts. Yeah, they only got one interception, but Brandon Beaver ran it back 46 yards and they scored on the next play. 

Washington looks good, and they're going to have to crush Idaho and Portland State the next two weeks if we're going to keep that good feeling going into the Arizona-Stanford-Oregon portion of the schedule. 

Confidence Level: Pretty Gosh Darn High

Florida State 45, Ole Miss 34

I wrote this game off just before halftime and went to bed. My alarm at 6:15 comes early, and I figured 28-6 was basically sheets for FSU last night and for the season.

And then, magic happened. 

Touchdown. Field goal. Touchdown, touchdown, touchdown. Three more field goals in the fourth quarter sealed the deal, and somehow Florida State is not dead today. 

Freshman Deondre Francois threw for 400 yards and no interceptions, boom that's what we need from him. 

Future Heisman Winner Dalvin Cook ran for just 91 yards and was help out of the end zone, but he chipped in with 100 receiving yards. With Dalvin, you know he's going to get featured somehow. Totaling almost 200 yards against the most stout defense he'll face all year is a great place to start his Heisman campaign. 

The 'Nole defense picking off Chad Kelly three times was enormous, and really that defense in the third quarter allowed them to mount their comeback. 

And, last but not least, Ricky "Sticky Icky" Aguayo was 3/3 on extra points and 6/6 on field goals. If you had the kid in Fanduel, you ended up with 16 points and that was probably enough for you to win. 

Oh and Clemson only scored 19 points to sneak a win away from Auburn. 

Confidence Level: Pretty Gosh Darn High

Is It Too Early To Start Looking At College Football Team Props?

The answer, of course, is no. There are so few sports happening right now that the biggest story on my Twitter timeline is Taylor Swift Instagramming that she's going to sue Kim Kardashian for Snapchatting a recorded phone conversation with Kanye West.

Peak Millennialism.

So let's cut the nerd social media talk and start talking about football, like men. College football season props are out on Bovada, and I'm going to give you picks for every division that matters.

Big XII

(Editor's note: the Big 12 doesn't have divisions, so they just lump everyone into one huge division and the whole thing ends in a three-way tie every season.)

Who Won Last Year: Oklahoma

Who's Favored This Year: Oklahoma -140

Some Other Teams To Consider: Oklahoma State +500, TCU +500

Ha Ha This Team Has No Chance: Kansas +25000

Bob Stoops' Sooners are the heavy favorite to repeat, primarily because they'll be returning quarterback Baker Mayfield and running back Samaja Perine. There's no reason to bet against them, just accept the moneyline wherever you can get it and count your money in December.

And oh by the way, you could add three more zeroes onto the end of that Kansas moneyline and I still wouldn't bet a dollar on it.

ACC - Atlantic

Who Won Last Year: Clemson

Who's Favored This Year: Clemson -110

Some Other Teams To Consider: Florida State +125, Louisville +600

Ha Ha This Team Has No Chance: Wake Forest and Syracuse are both +5000, which really makes me happy

As tough as it might be to bet against the defending conference champions that came within one score of being national champions, I reside in a Florida State household.

Dalvin Cook is going to be the best running back in the conference. Sean Maguire will be a solid quarterback, and if he gets beat out for the job it will be by a stud underclassman. Defensive end Marcus Walker decided to stay in school for his senior season, and he's probably going to be a first round pick next year. I love the payout of +125 and I'm all over FSU this year.

ACC - Coastal 

Who Won Last Year: North Carolina

Who's Favored This Year: Miami +150

Some Other Teams To Consider: Pitt +300, Va Tech +325, UNC +400

Ha Ha This Team Has No Chance: Virginia +4000

The Coastal division is a real crapshoot this year. Other than Duke and Virginia, every team has odds of 10/1 or shorter. That's a plus if you are a fan of a team and are going to bet them anyway, but it's a negative for us because it just means we're going to lose money.

But I told you I'd give you a bet for every division, so here's your bet for the Coastal: bet on your Atlantic team to win the whole ACC. Bingo bango.

Big Ten - East

Who Won Last Year: Michigan State

Who's Favored This Year: Ohio State +100

Some Other Teams To Consider: Michigan +125, Michigan State +600

Ha Ha This Team Has No Chance: All of the rest of the teams Rutgers +5000

This is what the Big Ten East should be. Just Ohio State/Michigan/Michigan State dominance and hatred. This is, outside of the SEC, the one division you want to make sure you have a dog in the fight.

For us, it's Michigan because the other two have to replace Joey Bosa, Ezekiel Elliot, Connor Cook, and some other NFL-bound players.

Big Ten - West

Who Won Last Year: Iowa

Who's Favored This Year: Iowa +100

Some Other Teams To Consider: Nebraska +200, Wisconsin +400, Northwestern +900 (kidding?)

Ha Ha This Team Has No Chance: Purdue +3300

In a similar sense as the ACC Coastal, this division is kind of a crapshoot. Iowa is probably going to win, but they aren't really blowing anyone away in any aspect of the game. If you like Wisconsin or Nebraska, throw some money down on a beefy line. If you like getting drunk at 11:30am on Saturdays, bet on Northwestern.

It's really whatever you prefer, but personally I am a fan of morning drinking and football so I am in on the Wildcats.

Pac-12 - North

Who Won Last Year: Stanford

Who's Favored This Year: Stanford +160

Some Other Teams To Consider: Washington +175, Oregon +300

Ha Ha This Team Has No Chance: Oregon State +5000

One quick note: Oregon State has a 0% chance of winning the divison, but they have a 100% chance of upsetting someone and throwing a wrench into that team's National Title hopes.

As far as the actual division winner, I think Stanford is overvalued based on recent success and Washington is undervalued for the same reason (or the opposite reason, depending on how you see it).

The Huskies are returning their entire offensive line and backfield, plus receiver John Ross III should be huge. Oh and their defense last year led the conference in yardage and scoring and will return 7 starters for this season.

Pac-12 - South

Who Won Last Year: USC

Who's Favored This Year: UCLA +140

Some Other Teams To Consider: USC +175, Utah +500, ASU +650

Ha Ha This Team Has No Chance: Colorado +2000

Really, this is a two-horse race between the Los Angeles teams. It comes down to who you prefer, and I'm going to make a quick and easy comparison chart for these two (sources here and here):

• Quarterback: UCLA's Josh Rosen is unquestionably more valuable than anything USC will be able to replace Cody Kessler with. 1-0 Bruins. 
• Rest of the offense: UCLA's got a three-headed running back trio, and they're apparently going to be employing a fullback and at least one tight end for most of the time. However, USC's returning their whole offensive line and they have a pair of running backs that should be as good if not better than UCLA's. 1-1, tied game. 
• Defense: UCLA has a very staunch defensive line, a less solid group of linebackers, and some brittle-boned defensive backs. USC is about the exact opposite, in that they have a fuckton of talent in the secondary and it gets less impressive as you move toward the line of scrimmage. This one is a tie, so we'll move the score to 2-2. 
• Other/intangibles: UCLA's two best players are their quarterback and defensive tackle Eddie Vanderdoes. USC's two best are a wide receiver and a cornerback. I'm taking the QB and the big man as more important, and UCLA wins this little exercise by a hair. 

SEC West

Who Won Last Year: Alabama

Who's Favored This Year: Alabama -130

Some Other Teams To Consider: LSU +225, Auburn +700, Ole Miss +1200, Texas A&M +1400, Arkansas +1400

Ha Ha This Team Has No Chance: Mississippi State +2000

While it may seem like it's a two horse race, it's the SEC West so any of these teams (or at least most of them) could end up being the best team in the country. There isn't a ton of value on 'Bama, but if you think another year of development for Leonard Fournette could bump LSU up from their 5-3 record last year, the Tigers might be the play. Really, anyone other than Bama or LSU is a long shot that you shouldn't expect much from.

For me, the questions in the passing attack make LSU really tough to pick. But Alabama has question marks at basically every position in the backfield, so I feel safer with LSU at +225 than I would with Alabama -130.

SEC East

Who Won Last Year: Florida

Who's Favored This Year: Tennessee -125

Some Other Teams To Consider: Georgia +200, Florida +450, Mizzou +1600

Ha Ha This Team Has No Chance: South Carolina, Kentucky, and Vandy are all +2500

Even though the payout for Tennessee is about the same as Alabama, I like the Vols bet much more than I like the Tide bet. Georgia doesn't scare me, Florida peaked last year, and the other three would be laughable opponents for Bama or LSU in the SEC title game. It has to be Tennessee, and even though the moneyline is a little prohibitive I like the Vols.

The Bet Slip

• Big XII: Oklahoma -140
• ACC Atlantic: Florida State +125
• ACC Coastal: No thanks, just take FSU to win the whole conference +225
• Big Ten East: Michigan +125
• Big Ten West: Northwestern +900 (kidding?)
• Pac-12 North: Washington +175
• Pac-12 South: UCLA +140
• SEC West: LSU +225
• SEC East: Tennessee -125

National Championship Betting Preview

Confession time: I haven't really been paying attention to college football since the regular season ended. The most I saw of 90% of bowl games was the ghost town stadiums on the Empty Seats twitter account.

We didn't even really look to bet on the semifinal games. I kind of paid attention to them on New Years Eve but I was more focused on drinking rum and cokes. It capped off a week of top-tier college football games that we didn't really pay attention to.

With hockey, college basketball, and pro football seasons in full swing, it's easy to get distracted and forget about college football. Even tonight, I'll probably be more focused on David Bowie than I am on Alabama-Clemson.

But it's the biggest football game of the season so far, and I think that's a good occasion to win some money.

Total Team Points: Alabama 29.5, Clemson 23

'Bama was only held under 29 points twice all year: at home against Arkansas (27) and Tennessee (19). It's important to note that they won both of those games, limiting Arkansas and Tennessee each to just 14 points.  Tennessee ranks 36th in the nation in yards per game against (362.0), and Arkansas is 58th (391.6). Clemson, though they have admittedly played an easier schedule than any SEC team, are 6th in the nation in YPG allowed (301.6).

Clemson has been held below 23 points just once all season, when they scored 20 at Louisville. They were held close against Notre Dame (24) and Florida State (23). Again, it's important to note that they won all three of these games despite being held well below their season average of 38.4 points. It would certainly be a feat for Alabama to hold them below 23 points, but the Tide have managed to do just that against Wisconsin, Georgia, Arkansas, Tennessee, LSU, Mississippi State, Auburn, Florida, and Michigan State this season.

Point Spread: Alabama -7

That leads me to my first real bet of the night: Alabama -7 (or buy half a point to get it inside a touchdown if you prefer).

The Tide only lost one game all year, and won by less than a touchdown once. The narrow win was against Tennessee (discussed above), and it was a low-scoring affair that doesn't seem likely to happen again versus Clemson, who can certainly score with ease against most teams.

The Tide loss was a barn-burner against Ole Miss. The final score was 43-37 Ole Miss, and they were led by quarterback Chad Kelly's 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. Had Alabama limited its turnovers (3 interceptions will kill you), the Tide could be seeking a perfect season. But they fell victim to a staunch Ole Miss defense and dug themselves a hole that proved too large to escape.

Here's why I don't expect Clemson to replicate that upset: that game was the pinnacle of Ole Miss' season. They finished 10-3 after their convincing bowl win over Oklahoma State. They finished 6-2 in the conference and came in second place in the best division in football. But their biggest accomplishment was knocking off the Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa. They played a perfect game and still only won by 6 points.

Clemson only played 3 ranked teams all season. They beat Notre Dame, Florida State, and North Carolina (all home games) by a combined 20 points. That may seem like a healthy margin, but those teams are decidedly in this season's second tier. Now, the Tigers have to travel 2,000 miles from home and play the best team (and the best coach) in college football for the past decade.

Jake Coker To Throw An Interception -130
Deshaun Watson To Throw An Interception -190
Parlay Both QB's To Throw At Least One Pick Each +170

There are some aspects of the loss to Ole Miss that figure to reappear in Arizona tonight: interceptions. Tide quarterback Jake Coker has not thrown one since November 14th, and has avoided turnovers in the four games down the stretch.

But Clemson's defense has tallied five picks in the past four games, bringing their total to 16 on the season. Alabama's defense has totaled 18 this year, and figures to snag at least one from Watson, who's thrown just about a pick per game all season.

Derrick Henry Rushing Yards Over/Under 145.5
Derrick Henry Total Touchdowns Over/Under 1.5

Yes, Clemson largely creamed Oklahoma in their semifinal game. They held Baker Mayfield to 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions, but the biggest disparity in the game was in rushing offense. Clemson held Oklahoma to just 67 rushing yards. Total. As an entire team. And that includes a pair of 18 yard rushes each by Mayfield and receiver Dede Westbrook.

Clemson did well to hold Samaje Perine well under 100 yards (and to just one touchdown).  On the season, Perine totaled 1349 rushing yards, 6.0 yards per carry, and 16 touchdowns on the season. Obviously, Oklahoma's defense held him below his season average.

Henry, in a tougher conference defensively than Perine, totaled 2061 yards on 5.7 yards per carry and 25 touchdowns. Even if Clemson holds him down (proportionally) the same way they held Perine in check, he's still good for about a hundred yards and two touchdowns.

I'm inclined to bet both Overs here, because Henry has gone over in at least one of these categories in 12 of 14 games this year. The outliers were against ULM (only 13 carries in a blowout) and Arkansas (only 95 yards and 1 TD.. somehow that's his worst game of the season). There were four games this year where he ran for more than 145 yards and 2+ touchdowns: Wisconsin, Texas A&M, LSU, Mississippi State. He was used lightly against Michigan State last week, but he was on pace to make it five enormous games in a row that he dominated. He's a big game performer, and I expect him to put on a show tonight.

Tuesday Night MACtion Preview: Toledo @ Central Michigan

To simplify this game, Toledo is a run-based offense (5.3 yards per attempt, 222.9 yards per game, 16 rushing touchdowns) that ranks top 3 in the conference in rushing and bottom 3 in passing. CMU is a pass-based offense (296.2 yards per game, 20 touchdown passes) that ranks in the top 3 in passing and is dead last in rushing.

I love these games because we'll see how Toledo has handled good passing teams, how CMU has handled good rushing teams, and then figure out where we can make a bunch of money. At the time of me writing this, the line is Toledo -4.5.

Toledo against the pass:

• Arkansas: 32/53 attempts, 412 yards, 0 touchdowns, 1 interception (they average 280.2 yards, 2.3 touchdowns, 0.6 interceptions)
• Iowa State: 26/43, 274 yards, 1 touchdown, 0 interceptions (239.2 yards, 1.6 touchdowns, 1.0 interceptions)
• Arkansas State: don't pay attention to this game, they aren't a real school
• Ball State: 23/37, 236 yards, 1 touchdown, 0 interceptions (221.8 yards, 1.4 touchdowns, 0.6 interceptions)
• Kent State: don't pay attention to this game, they're the worst passing team in the MAC
• Eastern Michigan: 25/39, 205 yards, 0 touchdowns, 1 interception (218.3 yards, 1.4 touchdowns, 1.4 interceptions)
• UMass: 27/49, 240 yards, 4 touchdowns, 1 interception (293.0 yards, 1.9 touchdowns, 1.0 interceptions)
• Northern Illinois: 16/25, 277 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception (236.1 yards, 1.7 touchdowns, 0.6 interceptions)

UMass is right behind CMU in terms of passing yards in the conference, but CMU throws the ball more efficiently. It's important to note that Toledo won that game despite giving up 4 touchdown passes (Toledo QB Phillip Ely threw 5). 

Overall, with the exception of the UMass game, Toledo's defense does a good job of containing against the pass. In every game listed above (and the two not listed), they've held opponents to under or around their averages in passing yards and touchdowns. That's why they're a road favorite tonight. 

Central Michigan against the two MAC teams similar to Toledo's running game:

• Northern Illinois: 59 carries, 211 yards, 3.6 yards per carry, 2 touchdowns (they average 47.4 carries, 207.0 yards, 4.4 yards per carry, 2.8 touchdowns)
• Western Michigan: 41 carries, 215 yards, 5.2 yards per carry, 1 touchdown (39.6 carries, 208/2 yards, 5.3 yards per carry, 2.1 touchdowns)

I want to note that WMU's quarterback had a near-perfect day, with 15 completions on 22 attempts for 262 yards, 4 touchdowns, and a bananas 94.1 QBR. I'm going to make a mental note to bet on them in the future, because they lost to Michigan State and Ohio State, flubbed a game at Georgia Southern, and have creamed almost everyone else. My man Clay Travis loves Bowling Green this year, but BGSU travels to WMU tomorrow night, and I like the Broncos as a 3-point home dog. 

Back to the game at hand, though, and I like Toledo here. I almost like them too much - this feels like a CMU line, but I don't think Toledo has a problem covering 4.5 at all. 

Tuesday Night Sun Belt Preview: UL Lafayette @ Arkansas State

Ragin' Cajuns! Red Wolves! Tonight on ESPN2!

My goal with this post is to absolutely nail two bets: the point spread is currently Ark State -9 (looking like it might move to -8.5), and the over/under is a hefty 63 (looking light it might move to 63.5). In the interest of full disclosure, my gut says take the Ragin' Cajuns because that's the best nickname in all of sports.

Ragin' Cajuns Summary

• Junior QB Brooks Haack stinks. He's thrown 0 touchdowns and 4 interceptions on his 66 attempts for the season, and he seems to getting gradually phased out.
• Haack's replacement has been fellow Junior Jalen Nixon. On his 86 attempts, he's totaled 5 touchdowns and just 2 interceptions. Nixon has also rushed for 99 yards in the past two games. 
• ULL does more damage on the ground, totaling 1156 yards and 15 touchdowns through 5 games. They are led by Junior Elijah McGuire's 585 yards (on 6.0 yards per carry) and 7 touchdowns. 
• The Cajuns have a balanced receiving group, with 5 receivers between 12 and 22 receptions on the year. Four of those five have scored a touchdown, and there are 8 receivers who have caught at least one pass of 20+ yards this year. 
• The ULL defense has been all over the place. They gave up 40 at Kentucky (23.4 ppg since), 17 versus Northwestern State (26.6 in other games), 35 versus Akron (26.2 in other games, but they either blow the other team out or get blown out), 43 at Louisiana Tech (35.7 in other games), and 27 versus Texas State (35.8 in other games, but got killed by FSU and Houston). 
• One sentence summary: Hamstrung by interceptions and the lack of a defense against Akron and La Tech, but overall about as solid as you could expect a Sun Belt team to be. 

Red Wolves Summary

• Ark State have been splitting quarterback time between Senior Fredi Knighten (63 attempts, 302 yards, 4 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, 45 rushes, 90 yards, 0 touchdowns, has been a successful runner in the past) and Freshman James Tabary (102 attempts, 788 yards, 4 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, not a rushing threat at all). 
• Similarly productive on the ground, they've totaled 1190 yards and 15 touchdowns. The three-headed beast of Michael Gordon, Warren Wand (A+ porn name), and Johnston White have combined for 1035 of those yards on 6.0 yards per carry, and have scored 14 of the team's rushing touchdowns. 
• JD McKissic leads the team in receptions and yards, and Tres Houston (A+ rap name) leads the team with 4 receiving touchdowns. 
• The Wolves have held just one opponent under 27 points this year: Missouri State, who have gotten absolutely obliterated in 5 of their 6 games this year, with their other game being an 8-point win against Chadron State, who do not have a team page on ESPN. USC scored 55 (average 35.0 in other games), Mizzou scored 27 (17.8 in other games), Toledo scored 37 (34.2 in other games), Idaho scored 35 (23.4 in other games), and South Alabama scored 31 (22.6 in other games). 

After looking at those summaries, how the FUCK can you think Ark State is going to cover a 9 point spread? (Checking Bovada again, the spread have moved all the way down to 7.5 since I started writing.) That's a #shoutout to my fellow sharp bettors, because 9 is a laughable line and even 7.5 is a joke. Tbh I kind of like the Ragin' Cajun moneyline at +265. Forget the over/under, I'm not going to review that. Take whatever money you were going to bet on the over and bet it on the Ragin' Cajuns. #LetsRage

If you're looking for a counterpoint, here's a link to an article on Athlon Sports that basically undermines everything I think about this game.)

Recap: College Football Week 7

We had a lot of action across the board yesterday, and there were a bunch of games that went exactly like we predicted (pats self on back). There were also a few that we missed on... badly.

Florida State -7 (Win)
Ho hum, Florida State keeps marching toward the only two games on their schedule that matter: at Clemson on November 7th and at Florida November 28th.

Baylor -21.5 (Win)
The Bears are a really legitimate team, because they're going to be able to outscore everybody until they have to play an elite SEC or Big Ten defense.

Purdue +23.5 (Win)
On what planet is losing 24-7 ever a good thing?

Northwestern +2 (Loss)
I wrote a One Sentence Preview basically just blindly supporting the Wildcats. They got smoked by Iowa - so maybe it's best to do a little bit of research before betting? That's a strategy we should try sometime.

Texas Tech -32.5 (Loss)
The Raiders only beat lowly Kansas by 10 points, but the nice thing about losing that bet is we'll get a ton of points next week in their game against Oklahoma and we'll also be able to win on Kansas getting creamed by Oklahoma State. So we're losing one bet this week to win two next week - that's like a gambling 401(k).

Michigan -7 (Loss)
What can I say about this game that hasn't already been said? The ending of that game hurts a lot more in the "Tease Bag" section of this post, but Holy Christ that was a bad way to end a game. The Wolverines had a 99.8% chance to win, and they fucking blew it.

Alabama -4 (Win) and Over 54  (Win)
These two should have been co-locks of the week, but having three locks of the week kind of defeats the purpose. Alabama blew past Texas A&M and the game blew past the total. Easy.

Boston College +16.5 (Loss)
When I actually placed this, it had moved to 17 (which would have been a push). But I'm an honorable man and I'm going to take the loss here. I really thought BC's defensive success against everyone they had played would translate. But nope, Clemson put up 34.

Penn State +17.5 (Loss)
Ohio State kicked the crap out of them. Whoops.

Utah -6 (Lock of the week) (Win)
I was drunk at the bar and nervous that they weren't going to take care of business, but the Utes had a really strong fourth quarter and it made the steak at Sonny's that much tastier.

Oregon +3 (Win) and Moneyline (Win)
I didn't watch a second of this game, but Oregon beats Washington every time. That was an easy end to the day.

Tease Bag: Florida State (Win), Ole Miss (Loss), Michigan (Loss), LSU (Win)

Who Would Be In The Playoff If The Season Ended This Week
This is a new feature I decided to toss in here now, because we've seen the ups and downs of every team and we have a pretty good idea of who should be competing for the national championship.

1: Baylor
2: Alabama
3: Utah
4: Ohio State
First four out: the winner of FSU/Clemson, TCU, Michigan State, LSU

Is it too late to expand the playoff to eight teams?

Week 7 College Football Preview: The Night Games

(In case you missed them, I broke down the Florida State-Louisville game here and the rest of the noon games here. Then I previewed afternoon games, Michigan-Michigan State here and Alabama-A&M here. To recap those posts, we're on FSU -7 early, buying the extra half a point if we need to. We're also on Baylor, Purdue, Northwestern, and Texas Tech. We also have Ole Miss in the tease bag, waiting for a partner.)

Florida @ LSU (-7.5), 7:00
We have a lot to get to for tomorrow night so let's cut right to the chase here: LSU has beaten every team by 10+ points except Mississippi State, and they've won every home game by 21+. Miss State played them by far the closest of anyone this year, and LSU squeaked by with a 2 point win. Overall, MSU has a pretty average defense, and the box score doesn't show that they did anything crazy in that game. In reading recaps, it seems like LSU got clipped by some dumb penalties? I like LSU, but I'd prefer to toss it into the tease bag.

Boston College @ Clemson (-16.5), 7:00
Honestly guys, sixteen and a half against the best defense in the country? I don't even know if Clemson can score 17 points. Give me BC, please and thank you.

USC @ Notre Dame (-5), 7:30
As you guys know, we can't bet against Notre Dame. But I wanted to take a second to send some T's and P's to Steve Sarkisian, I hope he gets some help and some clarity in the next few months.

Missouri @ Georgia (-14.5), 7:30
Mizzou has been up and down this season, but Georgia has scored 30+ on everyone except Alabama. If we could tease the Dawgs down to (or even inside) a touchdown, I'd be all for adding it to the teasebag. At 14.5 though? I think I'd have to stay away.

Penn State @ Ohio State (-17.5), 8:00
Here's your weekly Mail It In Direct Quote From Clay Travis On Outkick The Coverage: "I can't tell you guys how much I love this game. Last year Penn State took Ohio State to double overtime after playing them virtually even in total yardage for the entire game. 

There was nothing flukish about this game, in fact, Ohio State actually got the benefit of some atrocious first half calls, otherwise Penn State might have won in regulation.

This year Penn State has won five straight games after a tough opening week loss to Temple. But most of the nation hasn't even noticed this. Meanwhile, Ohio State has been mediocre all season long, failing to cover in every game since week one. 

So you're telling me I've got a Penn State team that knows it was good enough to beat Ohio State last year, going on the road in a game that no one is giving them any chance to win? This is the situation that James Franklin dreams of, he's great at playing the no respect card.

My jaw dropped when I saw this line open at Ohio State -17.5. So far it hasn't budged much off that line. Don't just hammer Penn State here, take them on the money line for a part of your bet too. Get rich, kids."

Arizona State @ Utah (-6), 10:00
I mentioned in the Texas A&M preview that this weekend is when we'll find out if Arizona State is a legit contender out west. They aren't. Utah is going to spank them. This line inside of a touchdown is the easiest money of the whole weekend. Lock of the week, Utah -6.

Oregon @ Washington (-3), 10:30
I was really surprised to see this line. Oregon, recently, has been a contender for the Pac-12 title every year for a long time now Could 3-2 Washington really be favored over them? How fucking disrespectful is that? Then I did some digging (not a lot, tbh) and found that Washington won at USC last week and went to Boise State and only lost by 3 earlier this year. Boise State ran for 2 touchdowns and kicked 2 field goals, and USC ran for 1 and kicked 2. Against Michigan State and Utah (good defenses), Oregon combined to throw for 3 touchdowns, run for 3 more, and kick 0 field goals. Against the rest of their opponents, the Ducks averaged 2.0 touchdowns in the air, 3.8 touchdowns on the ground, and 2.3 field goals. So, yeah, Vegas, I think you fucked up and I think I'll take the Ducks -3 and the moneyline at +125 too.

Week 7 College Football Preview: Alabama @ Texas A&M

(In case you missed them, I broke down the Florida State-Louisville game here and the rest of the noon games here. Then I previewed the other afternoon game, Michigan-Michigan State, here.)

Now it's time for the two biggest games of the day. Two of the three best teams in the Big Ten on one TV, and two of the five best teams in the SEC on the other. (For the record, the rest of that list is Ohio State, LSU, and then maybe Florida and Ole Miss.)

Part 2: Alabama (-4) @ Texas A&M, 3:30, CBS

Anything you're looking into an Alabama game, you have to keep in mind that there is going to be a bias in Bama's favor because of Saban and because they have an ungodly amount of talent on the field and on the bench. A&M is rolling, undefeated, ranked higher than Alabama, and at home. Yet the Tide are favored. That's Alabama football.

So the question of the day/night: are the Tide really that much better than the Aggies? I mean A&M beat Arizona State 38-17 and we'll have to see what happens tomorrow night to know for sure whether ASU is really not a contender in the Pac-12. A&M also beat Arkansas and Mississippi State back in the SEC, and those two really cover the spectrum of run-heavy to pass-heavy in the SEC.

But there seems to be this lingering notion of Alabama being the king of the SEC, and really of the whole college football world. They beat Wisconsin and Arkansas pretty easily at home, and they went on the road and stomped the shit out of Georgia.

But the Tide's lone loss is also the crux of my preview: Bama had Ole Miss at home, and couldn't contain Chad Kelly and the Rebels enough to pull out a win. Kelly went off for 341 yards and 3 touchdowns without an interception, and he only needed 33 attempts (18 completions) to do it. Alabama out-rushed A&M 215 yards to 92, but both teams ran in two scores. The difference, really, was Alabama's quarterbacks combining for 3 interceptions.

As I write this, the over/under is at 54 and looking it might drop to 53. I LOVE the over here. A&M wants to throw the ball, and I just told you how Alabama fared against the other elite passing team in the SEC. Bama wants to run the ball, and A&M probably can't stop them:

• Arizona State ran for 92 yards and 1 touchdown (average 197.0 yards and 1.3 touchdowns in their other games)
• Ball State ran for 240 yards and 2 touchdowns (164.8 and 1.8)
• Nevada ran for 153 yards and 1 touchdown (236.2 and 2.0)
• Arkansas ran for 232 and 2 touchdowns (166.4 and 1.2)
• Mississippi State ran for 196 yards and 2 touchdowns (140.8 and 1.6)

In conclusion, I am 80% certain that Texas A&M will not be able to contain Alabama's rushing attack. I am 60% certain that Alabama will not be able to contain Texas A&M's passing attack. I think both teams will get into the 20s with ease, and I think the total will blow past 54. 

As for the point spread, I don't know how you can look at the facts and determine that A&M has any significant advantage except for home field. Even if A&M throws a gem like Chad Kelly did, they won't be able to bank on their defense to match those 3 interceptions, and they definitely won't be able to bank on Derrick Henry being slowed down. I like Alabama -4. 

Week 7 College Football Preview: MSU @ Michigan

(In case you missed them, I broke down the Florida State-Louisville game here and the rest of the noon games here.)

Now it's time for the two biggest games of the day. Two of the three best teams in the Big Ten on one TV, and two of the five best teams in the SEC on the other. (For the record, the rest of that list is Ohio State, LSU, and then maybe Florida and Ole Miss.)

Part 1: Michigan State @ Michigan (-7), 3:30, ESPN

After their opening week loss at Utah, Michigan has won 5 games by a combined score of 160-14.

Go re-read that sentence. The Wolverines lost away from home to the best team in the Pac-12 by one touchdown. Since then, they have absolutely creamed everyone in their path. BYU and Northwestern were both ranked when Michigan beat them (31-0 and 38-0, respectfully).

The Wolverine defense is out here lambasting fools. They:

• are averaging 6.3 points against per game for the season (best in the nation)
• are second in the nation in pass yards allowed per game and third in rush yards allowed per game
• held Utah to 24 points (40.3 points per game in other games)
• held Oregon State to 79 passing yards, 59 rushing yards, and 7 points (they stink though but still)
• held UNLV to 7 points, and then UNLV put up 80 the next week (against Idaho State but still)
• shut out BYU (33.2 points per game in other games)
• held Maryland to 76 passing yards, 29 rushing yards, and 0 points (Terps kind of stink)
• shut out Northwestern and held them to 38 rushing yards (Cats averaged 248.8 rushing yards and 25.4 points in their other games)

The closest Michigan State has gotten to an elite defense are Air Force (20th in yards against, 43rd in points against), Rutgers (86th and 60th), and Central Michigan (38th and 64th). Sparty put up 35 on Air Force, 30 on Central Michigan, and 31 on Rutgers. But there really is a huge gap between the *Elite* defenses and those three. Michigan isn't going to shut out MSU, but they'll hold them under 20. 

The question then becomes whether or not Michigan can score the 32 points per game they have been averaging since the loss to Utah. Here's what MSU's defense has been able to do:

• Western Michigan scored 24 points and threw 2 interceptions. In their two other losses (Georgia Southern and Ohio State), they averaged just 14.5 points. In WMU's two wins (Murray State and Central Michigan), they averaged 46.5 points. That WMU team is so all over the map I don't even know what to make of them
• Oregon scored 28 points. Besides their Utah game (when they only scored 20), the Ducks are averaging 50.3 points per game. That MSU-Oregon-Utah-Michigan connection has to mean something, and here I think it means the game should stay in the 20s?
• MSU held Air Force at 21 points, below their average of 29.8 for the rest of their games
• Central Michigan scored just 10 points, well below their average of 25.8 in the rest of their games
• Purdue stinks, but even at 1-5 they've still averaged 25.8 points per game on the season, and 21 of them came against MSU
• Rutgers has been all over the place offensively. Here are their point totals (in increasing order): 3-24-27-34-63. That 24 was last week against MSU

I think this is going to be very close to the spread. I like Michigan to win, and I think they do it by more than a touchdown. If you have a tease bag started already (like maybe with FSU?), throw the Wolverines in. If you're betting games on their own, I'm in on Michigan -7. 

Week 7 College Football Preview: The Noon Games

(If you missed the Louisville-Florida State preview, it's here - but I like FSU -7.)

Here are the rest of the notable 12:00 games:

West Virginia @ Baylor (-21.5)
WVU has been in a freefall, losing by 20 at Oklahoma and by 7 at home to Oklahoma State. Baylor scores 60+ points per game. I like Baylor, I wish it was inside three touchdowns, but I don't want to tease with this because it's either going to be a 30 point blowout or a single-digit nailbiter. It's tough to argue with Baylor's offense though, so I like the Bears -21.5.

Purdue @ Wisconsin (-23.5)
When you Google both of these teams, the first ESPN result is the link to the basketball page. That's a fun fact, and here's another: except for their 3 point loss at Michigan State, Purdue lost has lost their games against Big 5 opponents by 27 (Virginia Tech) and 28 (Minnesota) - and both of those games were at home. I'm almost wondering if the Boilermakers are a frisky road team because they have a home crowd that doesn't care? Couple that with Wisconsin's 1-1 B1G record (lost by 4 at home to Iowa and won by 2 at Nebraska), and I'm in on Purdue +23.5.

Ole Miss (-11) @ Memphis
Memphis is 5-0 against a bunch of crap teams. Ole Miss is 5-1 (2-1 in the SEC). In Ole Miss' only loss, Florida held them to 1 passing touchdown, 259 passing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns, and just 69 rushing yards (nice). For the season, Chad Kelly averages 310.3 yards and 2.3 touchdowns per game (with almost 1 interception per game). Their ground game averages 188.3 yards and 2.8 touchdowns per game. The issue with trying to analyze Ole Miss is they combined for 201 points (25 offensive touchdowns) against UT-Martin, Fresno State, and New Mexico State. Memphis probably won't win, but I'd like to mix this into the teaser bag to get it under a touchdown.

Iowa (-2) @ Northwestern
The friskiest team in the Big Ten getting points at home? I'm in!

Texas Tech (-32.5) @ Kansas
Kansas is another team that has the basketball page show up before the football page, and wow is it easy to see why. 0-5. Lost to South Dakota State. Lost by 32 to Memphis at home. Lost by 13 to Rutgers and by 25 to Iowa State. Coming off a 59 point loss at home to Baylor in which they only managed to score a touchdown on their first drive and go scoreless on their next thirteen. Texas Tech has been held under 50 twice this year (both times they scored 35 points) - at Arkansas, which they won, and at home to Baylor, which they lost because Baylor is Baylor. The Red Raiders beat Iowa State 66-31 last week, so transitive property tells us they should beat Kansas by 50. One of our first rules was Thirty Points Is A Lot, but I'm in on Texas Tech -32.5.

Week 7 College Football Preview: Louisville @ Florida State

Last night, we were considering a parlay of Auburn -1.5, Atlanta -4, and the Mets moneyline. We decided not to bet it because parlays are stupid. We thought it would be smarter to just bet them separately. We got Atlanta into Bovada. Then their system froze or crashed or something and we couldn't place Auburn, and we kind of just forgot about the Mets.

Well Atlanta lost so we lost that money. Auburn covered and the Mets won, and we got dick to show for it.

Fucking great!

Lots of big games this weekend, let's break down some notable ones:

Louisville @ Florida State (-7.5), 12:00

What Louisville does well: Rushing. Like a lot of college teams, the Cards rely more on the run than they do on the pass. They've run for 11 touchdowns and thrown for just 5 (with 7 interceptions). They ran for 3 touchdowns when they beat Auburn, 2 when they lost to Houston, 1 when they lost to Clemson, and 1 when they beat NC State.

On the other side of the rushing game, Louisville's run defense is solid when it counts. They held Auburn to 2 touchdowns on 41 attempts, Houston to 0 touchdowns on 57 (!!) attempts, Clemson to 0 touchdowns on 40 attempts, and NC State to 1 touchdown on 30 attempts.

The Cards also defend against the pass moderately well. They had 3 interceptions against Auburn and 2 against Clemson, and they picked off Houston's Greg Ward once even though he pretty much torched them.

Florida State wants to run the ball, and there is really no denying it. They've gone for over 1000 yards through their first five games, led by Dark Horse Heisman Candidate Dalvin Cook Who Was Found Not Guilty For Allegedly Punching That Woman Outside Of That Bar and his 792 yards. Cook averages 9.0 yards per carry and has already score 8 touchdowns.

Before last week against NC State, Louisville had been giving up 4-5 yards per carry (and about a yard more than that to "feature backs"). Last week they held NC State's "feature back" Matthew Dayes to 68 yards on 19 attempts (3.6 yards per carry). Dayes isn't an elite back, but he has 10 touchdowns on the year - granted, it's against subpar competition.

Louisville isn't going to be able to contain Dalvin. They make keep him under 100 yards (doubtful), and they might even keep him out of the endzone (even more doubtful), but even if they do they will have to commit too much manpower and Everett Golson will add to his perfect 8 touchdown-0 interception stat line for the season. Tease if you have to because they're definitely winning, but I like FSU -7 (-120, buying the half a point).

Week 6 College Football Preview

This is not a great time for us, guys. Our last eight bets (going back to last weekend) are losses. We went 0-4 last night because Matt Hasselbeck turned out to be good, the two players with the most touchdowns for each team turned out to be bad, and there was a 42-yard touchdown as the first half expired to blow our "Longest Touchdown Under 40.5 Yards" play.

We need to turn this ship around. And we aren't going to do that by betting the way we have been betting. I'm going to go #guru on this, the way I normally do for college basketball. I'm looking at strengths and weaknesses. And god damnit, we're going to win a fucking bet!

The SEC's Best Rushing Teams

• LSU (334.0 yards per game, 75.4% of offensive plays)
• Georgia (244.8, 61.2%)
• Tennessee (225.0, 63.5%)
• Arkansas (204.0, 58.3%)
• Alabama (199.8, 52.8%)
• South Carolina (190.2, 60.1%)
• Auburn (190.0, 66.0%)
• Texas A&M (188.0, 54.1%)
• Ole Miss (173.0, 49.7%)
• Vanderbilt (157.0, 50.4%)
• Mississippi State (155.0, 44.1%)
• Florida (140.6, 53.1%)
• Kentucky (135.0, 53.4%)
• Missouri (116.2, 51.8%)

The SEC's Best Passing Teams

• Ole Miss (327.4 yards per game, 50.3% of offensive plays)
• Texas A&M (292.4, 45.9%)
• Mississippi State (284.8, 55.9%)
• Arkansas (272.0, 41.7%)
• Vanderbilt (255.4, 49.6%)
• Florida (253.6, 46.9%)
• Alabama (244.0, 47.2%)
• Kentucky (230.6, 46.6%)
• Georgia (208.0, 38.8%)
• Missouri (203.0, 48.2%)
• Tennessee (192.8, 36.5%)
• South Carolina (163.2, 39.9%)
• Auburn (153.8, 34.0%)
• LSU (95.5, 24.6%)

My first takeaway is LSU might as well not even have a quarterback. The same goes for Auburn, Tennessee, Georgia, and South Carolina. Arkansas is right on the border. 

Here are the SEC matchups this weekend:

Georgia (-3.5) @ Tennessee, 3:30

Lotttttt of rushing yards to be had here. In SEC play, Georgia beat Vandy and SC both handily, then got creamed by Alabama. That doesn't really tell us a whole lot, other than those lists I just made are utterly useless. 

I can tell you that UGA held Vandy - granted, a team not totally committed to rushing - to just 105 yards and 2.7 yards per carry. South Carolina, a team that focuses more on the run, managed to get 174 yards and 4.5 yards per carry. Alabama runs more effectively (although not necessarily more) than either of those teams, and they hit the Dawgs for 189 yards while holding Georgia to 193. 

This is pretty simple then: will Tennessee be able to hold Georgia's rushing attack in check and counter it with Jalen Hurd and Josh Dobbs? The Vols did that to Florida, though the Gators are more of a balanced attack. Arkansas ran ALL OVER Tennessee, out-rushing them 275 to 133. That didn't get reflected on the scoreboard, though, as the Hogs only won 24-20. Of their 11 total drives (not counting the end of the game), Arkansas scored just two touchdowns and two field goals. 

Four different Georgia players have combined to rush for the team's 15 touchdowns, and Malcolm Mitchell and Sonny Michel have each caught 3 of the team's 8 passing touchdowns. Greyson Lambert is one of the better quarterbacks in the SEC, and the Dawgs are going to be hungry after last week's embarrassment. I'm in. 

LSU (-15) @ South Carolina, 3:30

In conference, LSU has played Mississippi State and Auburn. That should give us a good look at how they fare against pass-heavy teams and against rush-heavy teams. They squeaked by on the road at MSU (21-19), and creamed Auburn at home (45-21), and the Tigers sit at a Kind Of Overinflated 4-0

That Auburn game is key because those blue and orange tigers are similar to South Carolina. They want to pound the ball on the ground. Auburn did that against LSU, totaling 160 yards and 4.3 yards per carry. But 65 of those yards (and the only rushing touchdown) came on one touchdown run for Jeremy Johnson, who still only averaged 3.4 yards per attempt. 

I'm penciling in the Cocks for the high teens or low twenties. Can LSU score enough to cover two touchdowns? If their games against Kentucky (3 rushing touchdowns), Georgia (4), and Mizzou (1) mean anything, it is going to be a busy day for Future Heisman Winner Leonard Fournette. Give me the Tigers on the road and let's help the Ol' Ball Coach one step closer to living on a beach. 

Arkansas @ Alabama (-16.5), 7:00

If you just look at the two lists above, this looks like it should be a lot closer than a 17 point game. It seems like half of that spread is coming from Nick Saban and Lane Kiffin being a million times better than Brent Bylsma, and the other half is coming from the players on the field. 

'Bama has played 3 legitimate top-25 teams: they beat Wisconsin by 18, lost to Ole Miss by 6, and just thrashed Georgia by 28 last week. 

Arkansas has played one team that is MAYBE as good as any of those three - Texas A&M, who beat the Hogs by 7. 

To cover this big of a spread, though, Alabama is going to have to be firing on all cylinders. Derrick Henry has 9 touchdowns so far, and he's going to need at least a pair. Jake Coker has run for 2 touchdowns and thrown for 9, but he's also thrown 4 interceptions this year. Arkansas has 3 interceptions on the year, but one came against UTEP and the other two came against Texas Tech, who have attempted 44 more passes than any SEC team (and 61 more than the Tide).

This one is going to be a game time decision. Rule number one is Never Bet On The Worse Team, so it's either Alabama or nothing. Spoiler alert: on Saturday at like 6:58, it will be Alabama. 

Florida (-5) @ Missouri, 7:30

These two have three things in common. (1) They stink. (2) They run the ball slightly more than they throw the ball. (3) They aren't particularly effective at running or throwing the ball. 

Bovada doesn't post over/under numbers until game day, but my side chick (Sportsbook.ag) has the total for this game at 39.5. Both of these teams are going to be kind of inflated coming off wins last week (Mizzou 24-10 against South Carolina and Florida 38-10 against Ole Miss), and I think this number is actually inflated too. 

I'm never a person that bets the under. I think, if your goal is to enjoy watching the game, betting the under is incredibly counterproductive. But listen, man. I made those lists. It told us that these two teams don't do anything good on offense. Courtesy of Fox Sports, I can also tell you that they are the first- and third-ranked teams in the SEC in points against per game.

Neither team is breaking twenty points, baby! Under 39.5! Catch the fever!

College Football Week 5 Betting Guide

West Virginia @ Oklahoma, 12pm
WVU has beaten up on Georgia Southern, Liberty, and Maryland by a combined score of 130-23. They held their only Big Five opponent to 6 points. They haven't played a road game yet, but the 'Eers went 4-1 on the road last year.

Oklahoma destroyed Akron 41-3 in their opener, then beat Tennessee 31-24 on the road, then beat Tulsa 52-38 at home.

This is a tricky game to predict, and Vegas has been holding around Oklahoma -7. I think that is too many points, so I'm on WVU +7 before it changes to +6.5

Iowa @ Wisconsin, 12pm
Wisconsin lost to Alabama in week one, and it wasn't pretty. Since then, they are 3-0 and have outscored their opponents 114-3. That was a classic B1G Cupcake Run against Miami (OH), Troy, and Hawaii, but still.... 114-3.

Likewise, Iowa has played a classic B1G Cupcake Schedule so far, beating Illinois State and North Texas at home, beating Pittsburgh at home without their only elite player, and getting a huge win on the road against The Second Worst Team In The Big 12. They are being portrayed as a stout run defense, but Wisconsin is going to run all over them.

I have no idea how this line is only 7 points. Give me Wisconsin -7 in this situation every day for the rest of the football season.

(Note: Iowa State is the second-worst team in the Big 12, but Kansas is the worst and ISU is favored by 17 against the Jayhawks this week.)

Alabama @ Georgia, 3:30
This is right from Clay Travis' preview this week: "Here's the deal, these two teams are almost completely equal except Greyson Lambert is playing much better than either of Alabama's quarterbacks. So how do you not take the better quarterback playing at home when the teams are otherwise equal? (And when Georgia can actually make a field goal). The Dawgs win, sending Alabama and Auburn to 0-2 starts in the SEC for the first time in the history of the SEC."

Clay's been hot recently, so let's go Dawgs - UGA -1.5.

Ohio State @ Indiana, 3:30
I wish I had the balls to take Indiana +21.5 here because I don't think OSU will be able to cover that, but I don't.

Ole Miss @ Florida, 7pm
I guess I don't understand how the Rebels, who beat Alabama on the road, are only favored by 7.5 against Florida. The Gators have played one possession games against Tennessee, Kentucky (!), and East Carolina (!!). Maybe throw Ole Miss into a teaser to get it closer to a pickem, but even at the regular spread I still like Ole Miss -7.5.

Notre Dame @ Clemson, 8pm
We have a very staunch "No Betting On Notre Dame" policy, but they're actually getting two points at Clemson. The Irish blew the doors off of Texas, beat Virginia (on the road) and Georgia Tech by a touchdown each, and smacked UMass last week.

Clemson dominated Wofford and App State (snore), and beat Louisville by 3 points on the road.

DeShone Kizer got his tune-up game last week against woeful UMass, and I think ND is just flat out better than Clemson. But we don't bet on them here. I'm just looking out for you guys.

Week 3 College Football Preview

We stayed away from last night's game because (1) Clemson is a mystery to us (2) Louisville is a mystery to us (3) there was a good NFL matchup on and we wanted to eat 4 vigs and end up with nothing.

Now it's Friday afternoon and it's time to look to the weekend!

Florida State -8 @ Boston College, 12:00
I certainly understand the reasoning behind this close line, because BC has conceded 3 points and scored 100. But they've played Maine and Howard. And this is BC we're talking about. They weren't even on the board for national championship odds until this week, and now they're 500/1.

FSU has played a pretty cake schedule so far as well, but they're FSU. The have Golson and Cook in the backfield. That's it. It's that simple.

What worries me about taking FSU by more than a touchdown: Golson's QBR last week against USF was in the twenties. That's bad. And the last time Dalvin Cook rushed for less than 100 yards was last season... against BC. That's worse.

At the end of the day though, Bovada has FSU at 28/1 to win the title this year, and the Noles clearly cannot lose this game for that to happen. The FSU moneyline is -350, so this is prime material to throw into the #teasebag.

Georgia Tech -3 @ Notre Dame, 3:30
This is from Barstool Chief's blog about Notre Dame's undefeated season: "You’d think losing the starting nose tackle, the starting TE, the starting RB, and the starting QB would have me worried, but you’re wrong. You don’t become the foremost “ND is going undefeated” expert on the internet without being able to trick your own brain."

Allow me to use some rational thought here. Ga Tech is going to put up a lot of points, just like they always do. That alone means there's a good chance somebody wins by more than three. And now factor in ND is missing it's entire starting offense, and I'm in on GT -3. 

Auburn @ LSU, 3:30

I don't really like the line here (LSU -7 or Auburn +7) but I wanted to mention that I wrote a blog saying the SEC was good and the Big 12 and Pac 12 were bad. And then Auburn almost lost to Jacksonville State. 

South Carolina @ Georgia -16, 6:00

I like UGA, but I hate any SEC team by two touchdowns against another SEC team. Throw Georgia directly into the #teasebag, please and thank you. Chubb life. 

Stanford @ USC -9.5, 8:00

Stanford stinks and USC is good. Why is this line as close as it is? Bingo bango. 

Rutgers +9 @ Penn State, 8:00

I don't think there are two teams in all of sports that have fucked us more than Rutgers and PSU. My gut says this stays within a touchdown, and I like the under 46 too. Rutgers scored 63 against Norfolk State (who stink) and 34 against Washington State (high-scoring, high-paced offense). They won't be able to do that at PSU, who gave up 14 points to Buffalo and an abhorrent 27 to Temple. 

As for the Nits (apparently that's a thing that we call them now), they really struggled against Temple and only scored 10 points. They put up 27 against Buffalo - that's flirting with the over/under for tomorrow's game. 

Ole Miss @ Alabama, 9:15

The game of the weekend, without question. Bovada has the Tide favored by a touchdown and the over/under set at 53. Alabama got into the mid-thirties against Wisconsin and Middle Tennessee State, and Ole Miss has scored more than 70 against Hot Garbage University and Southern Dumpster Fire State. 

Am I crazy for taking the over here? Usually SEC games are brutal affairs where you have to grind for every touchdown, but these are two very good offenses. 

Also, I'm hoping Ole Miss wins and I'm nervous that they might lose by forty - and the over would still probably hit there. 

Week 2 College/Week 1 NFL Recap

Coming out of the weekend like:

We opened the weekend with Tom Brady going over his 2.5 touchdowns in the first half.

We hit on Miami on Friday night. We stayed away from FSU on Saturday morning. The Ole Miss/PSU/Georgia teaser hit. The Clemson/Georgia teaser hit (that was a game time decision, sorry). And the crown jewel of the football Saturday, our "The SEC is Good and the Big 12 is Bad" teaser hit as Alabama/Texas A&M/Tennessee all covered their adjusted spreads. Look for next week's teaser where we apply the same logic.

And then Sunday. Oh, Sunday. Green Bay, Kansas City, and Miami all covered early. Arizona, Cincy, and Denver all covered late. We were thinking about betting on Dallas late, but Bovada smiled down on us and wouldn't let us bet it. So we ended with a perfect 6-0 Sunday.

If you are wondering why I didn't post an NFL preview, it's because I wasn't in the cube on Saturday so I didn't need anything to kill time. Sorry. Venmo me money and I will start posting our picks on Saturdays.

To cap the weekend (when you think of the weekend as Thursday-Monday, life isn't so bad), we are on the Eagles -3 tonight. Greenbirds -10.5 pays +240 if you're looking for something more interesting.

Week 2 College Football Preview

Week 1 did not go so well. Bovada wouldn't let us tease Georgia-Arkansas, so naturally both teams won by a hundred and we were left twiddling our thumbs. Bovada did let us tease Alabama-USC, so the weekend wasn't a total wash. Full disclosure: I was at the beach so I didn't really look too much into the games before the weekend started.

But I'm back! Let's preview some games:

Miami -17.5 @ Florida Atlantic, Friday, 8pm
If you look at preseason odds, Miami was picked to be a mid-tier ACC team. They are, without question, projected below the FSU-Clemson-Georgia Tech group at the top of the conference, but the 'Canes should be decent this year. They beat Bethune-Cookman last week by six and a half touchdowns.

Similarly, Florida Atlantic projects as a middle-of-the-pack Conference USA team. They probably won't win (especially since they already lost to Tulsa), but there are a few teams that are supposed to be substantially worse than the (searches for the FAU mascot) Owls. That Tulsa loss was 46-44, which is not a good sign when you have to face an offense like Miami's.

I see the U putting up a lot of points and covering. Pick: Miami -17.5 (and if it happens to move inside 17, jump on it)

Florida State -28 vs. South Florida, Saturday, 11:30am
I probably won't ever bet against FSU this season because their offense is just too goddamn explosive, but four touchdowns is a LOT to cover against a USF team that put up 51 points last week. Granted, that game was against Florida A&M (Amphetamines & Meth LOL), but even if the Bulls manage to hang 21 on FSU I would worry.

I think I'm staying away from a point spread and looking for the over when that line gets released. If that line gets set below 60, I'm in.

Saturday Early Afternoon Big Teaser: Ole Miss -20 vs. Fresno State, Penn State -11 vs. Buffalo, Georgia -11 @ Vanderbilt
That's a ten point tease to get Ole Miss down to three touchdowns and PSU/UGA down to two touchdowns. Ole Miss looked incredible last week, but #fourtouchdownsisalot. Penn State looked incredibly bad last week in their loss to Temple, but I think they might have some incentive to take that out on the Bulls in front of the home crowd, no? And Georgia is so much better than Vanderbilt that I almost want to take them outright but I like it as the third piece of this teaser.

Saturday Night "The SEC is Good and the Big 12 is Bad" Teaser: Alabama -25.5 vs. Middle Tennessee, Texas A&M -20 vs. Ball State, Tennessee +11.5 vs. Oklahoma
Because of those rules we discussed in the week one recap, I have 100% confidence that this teaser will blow up in the most agonizing way possible.

Week 1 College Football Recap

Early season college football is always tricky to bet. You don't really know a whole lot about any of the teams, and half of the teams you do know something about are playing against a community college team. There were a LOT of teams favored by a big number this past weekend, but there were also a few decent matchups mixed in. Let's go to the scoreboard:

Notable Big Favorites That Covered

• #16 Georgia Tech -41 against Alcorn State. Ga Tech won 69-6
• #17 Ole Miss -39 against UT Martin, Ole Miss won 76-3
• #9 Georgia -35 against UL Monroe, UGA won 51-14
• #12 Clemson -34 against Wofford, Clemson won 49-10
• #13 UCLA -17.5 against Virginia, UCLA won 34-16
• #18 Arkansas -32.5 against UTEP, Arkansas won 48-13
• #25 Tennessee -21.5 against Bowling Green, Tenn won 59-30
• NC State -26 against Troy, NC State won 49-21
• #19 Oklahoma -31 against Akron, Oklahoma won 41-3
• #10 Florida State -27.5 against Texas State, FSU won 59-16
• #8 USC -27 against Arkansas State, USC won 55-6

Notable Big Favorites That Didn't Cover

• #2 TCU -16.5 against Minnesota. TCU won 23-17
• #22 Arizona -32.5 against UTSA, Arizona won 42-32
• #5 Michigan State 16.5 against Western Michigan, MSU won 37-24
• #4 Baylor -36 against SMU, Baylor won 56-21
• Washington State -30 against Portland State, Portland State won 24-17 (woof)
• Wyoming -18.5 against North Dakota, UND won 24-13 (woof)
• Indiana -20.5 against Southern Illinois, Indiana won 48-47 (woof)
• #24 Missouri -41 against SE Missouri, Mizzou won 34-3
• #7 Oregon -35 against Eastern Washington, Oregon won 61-42
• #26 Mississippi State -21 against Southern Mississippi, MSU won 34-16

Other Games, Like Maybe Some Featuring Two Decent Teams

• Utah -5 against Michigan, Utah won 24-17
• #23 Boise State -12 against Washington, BSU won 16-13 (but scored 0 second half points)
• #21 Stanford -10 against Northwestern, NWU won 16-6
• #6 Auburn -10.5 against Louisville, Auburn won 31-24
• Nebraska -5 against BYU, BYU won 33-28 (on a last-second Hail Brigham)
• Penn State -6 against Temple, Temple won 27-10 (PHIL-LY! PHIL-LY! PHIL-LY!)
• Texas A&M -3 against #15 Arizona State, TXAM won 38-17
• Notre Dame -8.5 against Texas, ND won 38-3
• #3 Alabama -12 against #20 Wisconsin, Alabama won 35-17
• #1 Ohio State -13.5 against Va Tech, OSU won 42-24

Let's break that down into some trends/rules for the coming weeks:

1. The SEC is the best conference in football.

Win the only game of the week between ranked teams. Five big favorites all take care of business by a combined 237 points. Blow out a top-15 team. Beat the fourth- or fifth-best team in the ACC. The only SEC loss of the weekend was Vanderbilt, and I'm not even sure they count as a real SEC team. Kentucky even managed to take care of business. If you are an SEC hater, you might want to keep it quiet this season. 

2. The Big XII and Pac 12 stink. 

Stanford lost to Northwestern. Arizona State lost to Texas A&M. Nobody expected much from Washington this year, but they lost to Boise State. And Arizona, Baylor, TCU, and Texas all didn't cover. Your scorching hot take of the day: this year's playoff will be Ohio State and three SEC teams. 

3. Betting a big number is a complete coin flip. 

Like I said, nobody knows anything going into the season. There are half a dozen teams that are going to drop significantly in this week's rankings, and at least that many that are going to shoot up. Betting on a "good" team to cover a huge spread can make sense, or it can blow up in your face. 

4. The Week 1 Recap Big Board:

*Note: LSU was off this week because their game was cancelled due to weather.