Tuesday, September 6, 2016

College Football Season Prop Recap: Week One

This day in the office is an absolutely must for any "Worst Work Days Of The Year" list. I'm basically nursing a four day hangover where all I drank was Bud Light and all I ate was eggs and cheesesteaks. There's a ton of work leftover from when I left at 2:30 on Friday, and an extra day's worth of shit to deal with from the long weekend.

But at least we had football this weekend, right?

As a reminder, we went with four season props this year. We bet the following teams to win their divisions (not conferences, other than Oklahoma because the Big XII has no divisions):

  • Tennessee
  • Oklahoma
  • Washington
  • Florida State

So we kicked off the weekend with Tennessee needing overtime to beat a Division 2 school, and then followed that up with Oklahoma losing to Houston. Then Washington blew out Rutgers and Florida State had their miracle second half and snuck a win away from Ole Miss. Let's do some deep dives:

Tennessee 20, Appalachian State 13 (OT)

Josh Dobbs was supposed to be the big swinging dick, best quarterback in the SEC, savior that steamrolled Tennessee to the SEC East championship. He kicked off his season with a 55% completion percentage, a single touchdown, an interception, and a QBR of 26.3. 

And this was against a Sun Belt team! App State is no longer Division 1-FCS, but they're still a team that should not be capable of taking a potential SEC Division Champion to overtime. 

Running back Jalen Hurd had a decent stat sheet - 28 carries, 110 yards, 1 touchdown. But he only averaged 3.9 yards per carry. What's going to happen when he's not playing against Future Enterprise Rent-A-Car Employees?

Confidence Level: Kind Of Low 

Oklahoma 23, Houston 33

This game, in retrospect, was all about field position. Both quarterbacks threw for 300+ yards and two touchdowns, both teams had decent but not great rushing attacks, and both offenses avoided turnovers. 

But Houston kicked four field goals and Oklahoma kicked one, and that's the whole game. 

Here's how the rest of the Big XII did: 
  • Lost: Kansas State (Stanford), Iowa State (Northern Iowa)
  • Beat A Shitty Team: Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Texas Tech
  • Beat A Decent Team: West Virginia (Mizzou)
  • Beat A Ranked Team: Texas (Notre Dame)
Confidence Level: Kind Of Low

Washington 48, Rutgers 13

Obviously, blowing out a power five team in the home opener is a great start. But Rutgers kind of stinks at football, so I'm going to try to temper my expectations here. 

Statistically, just about every aspect of this Huskies game was solid. Here are the nitpicky things that I see that could have been better:
  • Jake Browning threw an interception. There, that one was easy. 
  • Darrell Daniels dropped a touchdown pass. That's not good. 
  • John Ross caught two touchdowns and ran a kick back for a third, but didn't score any touchdowns on punt returns. There's some room for improvement in his game. 
  • Rutgers' quarterback is from Long Island and the Huskies only picked him off one time. 
This was a really tough exercise. Ross didn't score on a punt return because he doesn't return punts. Yeah, they only got one interception, but Brandon Beaver ran it back 46 yards and they scored on the next play. 

Washington looks good, and they're going to have to crush Idaho and Portland State the next two weeks if we're going to keep that good feeling going into the Arizona-Stanford-Oregon portion of the schedule. 

Confidence Level: Pretty Gosh Darn High

Florida State 45, Ole Miss 34

I wrote this game off just before halftime and went to bed. My alarm at 6:15 comes early, and I figured 28-6 was basically sheets for FSU last night and for the season.

And then, magic happened. 

Touchdown. Field goal. Touchdown, touchdown, touchdown. Three more field goals in the fourth quarter sealed the deal, and somehow Florida State is not dead today. 

Freshman Deondre Francois threw for 400 yards and no interceptions, boom that's what we need from him. 

Future Heisman Winner Dalvin Cook ran for just 91 yards and was help out of the end zone, but he chipped in with 100 receiving yards. With Dalvin, you know he's going to get featured somehow. Totaling almost 200 yards against the most stout defense he'll face all year is a great place to start his Heisman campaign. 

The 'Nole defense picking off Chad Kelly three times was enormous, and really that defense in the third quarter allowed them to mount their comeback. 

And, last but not least, Ricky "Sticky Icky" Aguayo was 3/3 on extra points and 6/6 on field goals. If you had the kid in Fanduel, you ended up with 16 points and that was probably enough for you to win. 

Oh and Clemson only scored 19 points to sneak a win away from Auburn. 

Confidence Level: Pretty Gosh Darn High

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