College Football Season Prop Recap: Week Four

It's Monday morning. I'm working with a four day hangover. I almost just turned my alarm off and took the day off of work. Looking back on that decision from my desk, I very clearly made the wrong decision.

But I'm at work, so I might as well work, right? Instead of doing actual work, though, I'm going to recap the eventful weekend we had with our season-long bets on Washington, FSU, Tennessee, and Oklahoma.

Let's start off with the easy one.

Oklahoma Had A Bye Week

And man, they needed it. They played Houston and Ohio State in weeks one and three, and they come out of the bye against TCU and then Texas. Those two games are the season for the Sooners; they could end up 3-2 (2-0 in the conference) with a manageable schedule the rest of the way, or they could end up 1-4 (0-2 in the conference) and be completely dead before mid-October.

Confidence Level: Well, It's Either Us Or Baylor Or West Virginia

#9 Washington Beat Arizona, 35-28 (OT)

We knew this game was going to be a lot different from the cakewalk the Huskies had for the first three games of the season. Arizona was the first "real" team they had to play.

Quarterback Jake Browning came back down to earth from his usual 300+ yards and 4+ touchdowns, finishing with 160 yards, 2 touchdowns (including the overtime winner), and an interception. But the real story was the Washington running game combining for 352 yards, 3 touchdown, and 6.9 yards per carry. That, against an Arizona defense that allowed an average of about 150 yards per game and 4-ish yards per carry is a very good sign.

Part two of the trilogy of rough games is at Stanford next week.

Confidence Level: Somewhat Moderately High

#13 Florida State Beat South Florida, 55-35

At one point on Saturday afternoon, I checked my phone and this game was tied 14-14. I had bad thoughts, and I thought FSU might blow it.

From that point, the 'Noles scored three towndowns and kicked a field goal to go into halftime with a 38-14 lead. The two teams traded shots for the second half, and it turned out to be a relatively comfortable win.

Deondre Francois was his usual comfortable freshman self, totaling 169 passing yards, 75 rushing yards, and one of each kind of touchdown. Dalvin Cook, per usual, was the star. My man went for 267 yards on 9.5 yards per carry and two scores.

The 'Noles got bumped up from 13 to 12 with the win, but they no longer control their own fate in the division. Louisville is going to have to lose twice to some combination of Clemson, Duke, NC State, Virginia, and Wake Forest.

Confidence Level: Not Great, Bob

#14 Tennessee Beat Florida, 38-28

You should already be reading Clay Travis' four posts per week, but just in case you missed his college football recap yesterday, he summed up this game perfectly:

The Vols started the season in the national top ten, but this is their first appearance in the Outkick top ten. After muddling their way through the App State and Ohio games and playing one good half against Virginia Tech, at halftime of the Florida game, with the Vols trailing 21-3, I was ready to pronounce them dead.

But then something remarkable happened -- the Vols posted one of the best halves in the history of the program, thoroughly dominating Florida, turning a 21-0 deficit into a 38-21 advantage.

The result? The Vols roar into our top ten. (Clay has them ranked 9th in the nation, the polls have them 11th.)

Confidence Level: I Wish It Was Higher But Georgia, Texas A&M, And Alabama Over The Next Three Weeks Is Really Fucking Daunting

College Football Season Prop Recap: Week Three

Sorry for the delay. I usually try to post these on Monday morning, but I was busy providing great client service and I got sidetracked from what really matters.

Let's dive right in.

#2 Florida State lost to Louisville

We're going to breeze right through this Noles summary. They got killed, Louisville looked awesome, and they have no chance of winning their division.

Confidence Level: Bad

#8 Washington beat Portland State

They walloped Portland State (fucking bearded flannel hipsters) and moved to 3-0 against three fairly unimpressive opponents. That said, any time you can win three weeks in a row by a combined 148-30, things are good.

So now the Huskies move from a really easy trio to a REALLY hard trio. At Arizona, host Stanford, at Oregon. That's the whole season right there, boys.

Quarterback Jake Browning has been almost flawless. Backup quarterback KJ Carta-Samuels has thrown a mop-up touchdown in every game. The rushing and receiving attacks have been balanced, and there are about a dozen guys that can realistically contribute in those roles. This first month has gone as well as it could have for Washington.

Confidence Level: Higher Than Florida State

#14 Oklahoma lost to #3 Ohio State

After opening the season with a loss to Houston, Oklahoma really wasn't supposed to beat Ohio State. And they did not.

Here's the only comparison you need to sum up the game. Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield threw two touchdowns and two interceptions. Ohio State's JT Barrett threw four touchdowns and no interceptions.

The saving grace for Oklahoma is the rest of the Big 12 kind of stinks. TCU is technically winning the conference now (at 1-0) after they beat Iowa State in the only Big 12 game so far this season. Baylor and West Virginia are undefeated, but they've played NWST, SMU, RICE, MIZ, and YSU. That's a considerable step down from Houston and Ohio State.

And then Texas, who is the only other ranked Big 12 team (Oklahoma dropped to #25). The Longhorns are currently #21 basically exclusively because they outlasted Notre Dame in that season opener. But Notre Dame scored 47 points on them, and ND's probably going to end up being an unranked team when this season is all said and done.

Confidence Level: Higher Than Washington

#15 Tennessee beat Ohio

Tennessee is like the exact opposite of Washington, even though they have identical 3-0 records.

The Vols came into this year as the favorite in the SEC East. The Huskies were more of a dark horse in the Pac-12 North.

The Huskies have absolutely dominated the easy portion of their schedule, beating everyone by 30+ points. The Vols needed overtime to beat Appalachian State, had a good showing against lowly Virginia Tech, and just this past week they only beat Ohio by 9 points. Single digits!

Josh Dobbs was, once again, just okay. Jalen Hurd is now the second best player in the SEC whose name starts with "Jalen Hur". Kicker Aaron Medley is just 3/5 on field goals for the season.

Confidence Level: Florida Might Beat Them By 30 This Week

College Football Season Prop Recap: Week Two

Coming into week two, we were riding high with Washington and Florida State and maybe a little bit concerned about Tennessee and Oklahoma. Given the level of competition our four teams were facing this weekend, it was really crucial that we ended the day with four big ("statement") wins. 

And we did. 

Oklahoma 59, Louisiana Monroe 17

Florida State 52, Charleston Southern 8

Washington 59, Idaho 14

Three games against non-power-conference schools, one combined score of 170-39. Obviously these three games were always supposed to be lopsided, but it's reassuring that none of them had any semblance of a scare this weekend. 

Let's take a look at some of the highlight performers, bullet-style:

• Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield and Austin Kendall combined for 352 yards and 5 touchdowns (Mayfield sat out the second half because it was such a blowout)
• Oklahoma's Joe Mixon and Abdul Adams ran for 117 and 91 yards respectively, and Samaje Perine had 58 yards and 2 touchdowns
• Oklahoma completed passed to 12 different receivers
• Florida State's Deondre Francois threw for 262 yards and 3 touchdown (with 1 interception)
• FSU's Dalvin Cook (Future Heisman Trophy Finalist) ran for 83 yards and 2 touchdowns
• Florida State's Travis Rudolph caught 7 passes for 105 yards and 2 touchdowns
• FSU's Jesus Wilson ran a punt back 89 yards for a touchdown
• Washington's Jake Browning threw for 295 yards and 5 touchdowns
• Here are the Huskies who caught touchdown passes: John Ross (2), Dante Pettis (2), Chico McClatcher, Quinten Pounds
• Chico McClatcher and Quinten Pounds. Just back in the glow of those names
• The Oklahoma and Washington kickers both kicked 8 extra points, and the Florida State kicker kicked 7 extra points

Confidence Level: Pretty Gosh Darn High for all three of these teams

It's really easy to pick out guys who had good days from these three games, because they were competing against significantly inferior talent. But what about the last team on our list? Tennessee was the only team to play against a power-conference team:

Tennessee 45, Virginia Tech 24

No problem. Granted, Va Tech kind of stinks now, but Tennessee rebounded nicely from their Week One struggles against Appalachian State. 

Josh Dobbs threw for just 91 yards, but he had 3 passing touchdowns, 105 rushing yards, and 2 rushing touchdowns. Jalen Hurd added 99 yards on 22 carries, and that was basically enough for the Vols to sink the Hokies. 

The most important stat of this game was the turnover battle. Dobbs threw an interception, but Virginia Tech lost FIVE fumbles. That is absolutely not something that will happen when Tennessee starts facing SEC competition, and the scoreboard would look a whole hell of a lot different if the Hokies has turned even two of those five into points. 

Confidence Level: Still Kind Of Low But Certainly Not As Low As Last Week

College Football Season Prop Recap: Week One

This day in the office is an absolutely must for any "Worst Work Days Of The Year" list. I'm basically nursing a four day hangover where all I drank was Bud Light and all I ate was eggs and cheesesteaks. There's a ton of work leftover from when I left at 2:30 on Friday, and an extra day's worth of shit to deal with from the long weekend.

But at least we had football this weekend, right?

As a reminder, we went with four season props this year. We bet the following teams to win their divisions (not conferences, other than Oklahoma because the Big XII has no divisions):

• Tennessee
• Oklahoma
• Washington
• Florida State

So we kicked off the weekend with Tennessee needing overtime to beat a Division 2 school, and then followed that up with Oklahoma losing to Houston. Then Washington blew out Rutgers and Florida State had their miracle second half and snuck a win away from Ole Miss. Let's do some deep dives:

Tennessee 20, Appalachian State 13 (OT)

Josh Dobbs was supposed to be the big swinging dick, best quarterback in the SEC, savior that steamrolled Tennessee to the SEC East championship. He kicked off his season with a 55% completion percentage, a single touchdown, an interception, and a QBR of 26.3. 

And this was against a Sun Belt team! App State is no longer Division 1-FCS, but they're still a team that should not be capable of taking a potential SEC Division Champion to overtime. 

Running back Jalen Hurd had a decent stat sheet - 28 carries, 110 yards, 1 touchdown. But he only averaged 3.9 yards per carry. What's going to happen when he's not playing against Future Enterprise Rent-A-Car Employees?

Confidence Level: Kind Of Low 

Oklahoma 23, Houston 33

This game, in retrospect, was all about field position. Both quarterbacks threw for 300+ yards and two touchdowns, both teams had decent but not great rushing attacks, and both offenses avoided turnovers. 

But Houston kicked four field goals and Oklahoma kicked one, and that's the whole game. 

Here's how the rest of the Big XII did: 

• Lost: Kansas State (Stanford), Iowa State (Northern Iowa)
• Beat A Shitty Team: Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Texas Tech
• Beat A Decent Team: West Virginia (Mizzou)
• Beat A Ranked Team: Texas (Notre Dame)

Confidence Level: Kind Of Low

Washington 48, Rutgers 13

Obviously, blowing out a power five team in the home opener is a great start. But Rutgers kind of stinks at football, so I'm going to try to temper my expectations here. 

Statistically, just about every aspect of this Huskies game was solid. Here are the nitpicky things that I see that could have been better:

• Jake Browning threw an interception. There, that one was easy. 
• Darrell Daniels dropped a touchdown pass. That's not good. 
• John Ross caught two touchdowns and ran a kick back for a third, but didn't score any touchdowns on punt returns. There's some room for improvement in his game. 
• Rutgers' quarterback is from Long Island and the Huskies only picked him off one time. 

This was a really tough exercise. Ross didn't score on a punt return because he doesn't return punts. Yeah, they only got one interception, but Brandon Beaver ran it back 46 yards and they scored on the next play. 

Washington looks good, and they're going to have to crush Idaho and Portland State the next two weeks if we're going to keep that good feeling going into the Arizona-Stanford-Oregon portion of the schedule. 

Confidence Level: Pretty Gosh Darn High

Florida State 45, Ole Miss 34

I wrote this game off just before halftime and went to bed. My alarm at 6:15 comes early, and I figured 28-6 was basically sheets for FSU last night and for the season.

And then, magic happened. 

Touchdown. Field goal. Touchdown, touchdown, touchdown. Three more field goals in the fourth quarter sealed the deal, and somehow Florida State is not dead today. 

Freshman Deondre Francois threw for 400 yards and no interceptions, boom that's what we need from him. 

Future Heisman Winner Dalvin Cook ran for just 91 yards and was help out of the end zone, but he chipped in with 100 receiving yards. With Dalvin, you know he's going to get featured somehow. Totaling almost 200 yards against the most stout defense he'll face all year is a great place to start his Heisman campaign. 

The 'Nole defense picking off Chad Kelly three times was enormous, and really that defense in the third quarter allowed them to mount their comeback. 

And, last but not least, Ricky "Sticky Icky" Aguayo was 3/3 on extra points and 6/6 on field goals. If you had the kid in Fanduel, you ended up with 16 points and that was probably enough for you to win. 

Oh and Clemson only scored 19 points to sneak a win away from Auburn. 

Confidence Level: Pretty Gosh Darn High

College Football Week 5 Betting Guide

West Virginia @ Oklahoma, 12pm
WVU has beaten up on Georgia Southern, Liberty, and Maryland by a combined score of 130-23. They held their only Big Five opponent to 6 points. They haven't played a road game yet, but the 'Eers went 4-1 on the road last year.

Oklahoma destroyed Akron 41-3 in their opener, then beat Tennessee 31-24 on the road, then beat Tulsa 52-38 at home.

This is a tricky game to predict, and Vegas has been holding around Oklahoma -7. I think that is too many points, so I'm on WVU +7 before it changes to +6.5

Iowa @ Wisconsin, 12pm
Wisconsin lost to Alabama in week one, and it wasn't pretty. Since then, they are 3-0 and have outscored their opponents 114-3. That was a classic B1G Cupcake Run against Miami (OH), Troy, and Hawaii, but still.... 114-3.

Likewise, Iowa has played a classic B1G Cupcake Schedule so far, beating Illinois State and North Texas at home, beating Pittsburgh at home without their only elite player, and getting a huge win on the road against The Second Worst Team In The Big 12. They are being portrayed as a stout run defense, but Wisconsin is going to run all over them.

I have no idea how this line is only 7 points. Give me Wisconsin -7 in this situation every day for the rest of the football season.

(Note: Iowa State is the second-worst team in the Big 12, but Kansas is the worst and ISU is favored by 17 against the Jayhawks this week.)

Alabama @ Georgia, 3:30
This is right from Clay Travis' preview this week: "Here's the deal, these two teams are almost completely equal except Greyson Lambert is playing much better than either of Alabama's quarterbacks. So how do you not take the better quarterback playing at home when the teams are otherwise equal? (And when Georgia can actually make a field goal). The Dawgs win, sending Alabama and Auburn to 0-2 starts in the SEC for the first time in the history of the SEC."

Clay's been hot recently, so let's go Dawgs - UGA -1.5.

Ohio State @ Indiana, 3:30
I wish I had the balls to take Indiana +21.5 here because I don't think OSU will be able to cover that, but I don't.

Ole Miss @ Florida, 7pm
I guess I don't understand how the Rebels, who beat Alabama on the road, are only favored by 7.5 against Florida. The Gators have played one possession games against Tennessee, Kentucky (!), and East Carolina (!!). Maybe throw Ole Miss into a teaser to get it closer to a pickem, but even at the regular spread I still like Ole Miss -7.5.

Notre Dame @ Clemson, 8pm
We have a very staunch "No Betting On Notre Dame" policy, but they're actually getting two points at Clemson. The Irish blew the doors off of Texas, beat Virginia (on the road) and Georgia Tech by a touchdown each, and smacked UMass last week.

Clemson dominated Wofford and App State (snore), and beat Louisville by 3 points on the road.

DeShone Kizer got his tune-up game last week against woeful UMass, and I think ND is just flat out better than Clemson. But we don't bet on them here. I'm just looking out for you guys.

Tuesday Night College Hoops Preview

The biggest college hoops games of the night - which both happen to be Big XII showdowns - are also the only games that should be single-digit affairs. Yes, Kentucky/Duke/Louisville/Virginia could all blow it, but each of those teams is favored by at least two touchdowns.

The Big XII is a really solid conference this year, and four of its top five teams play each other tonight. So we're going a little west and a lot south to preview Cowboys-Jayhawks and Sooners-Mountaineers, and hopefully we'll all get rich.

#24 Oklahoma State @ #9 Kansas, 7pm, ESPN2
Line: Kansas -7.5

Oklahoma State (12-3, 2-1 Big XII , 4th in the conference)

• 71.7 points per game (94th)
• 58.6 points against per game (27th)
• 36.3 rebounds per game (115th)
• 72nd toughest schedule (6th in the conference)

Kansas (13-2, 2-0 Big XII, 1st in the conference)

• 71.2 points per game (105th)
• 63.1 points against per game (118th)
• 38.7 rebounds per game (41st)
• 1st toughest schedule (1st in the conference)

Where OK State gets its points:

• 46.5% from twos (285th-highest in the country)
• 31.1% from threes (99th)
• 22.3% from free throws (104th)
• Shooting 51.8% on twos (41st), 34.0% on threes (160th), 70.3% on free throws (133rd)

How teams score their points against Kansas:

• 51.3% from twos (193rd-lowest)
• 31.0% from threes (278th)
• 17.6% from free throws (55th)
• Opponent shooting percentage of 44.5% on twos (83rd-lowest), 33.8% on threes (182nd), 64.7% on free throws (46th)

If the Cowboys are going to pull off this upset, they are going to do it from deep. They attempt about 21.5 threes per game, and it seems like this is a game where one of two things will happen; either Kansas will stifle them and it won't be a close game, or the 'Boys will shoot the lights out and keep it real close. 

Where KU gets its points:

• 49.6% from twos (215th-highest)
• 27.5% from threes (194th)
• 22.8% from free throws (82nd)
• Shooting 45.3% on twos (258th), 39.5% on threes (20th), 71.1% on free throws (100th)

I think Kansas' shooting percentage on twos would be 10 points higher if Perry Ellis didn't take ten 18-foot jump shots per game, but they shoot impressively well from deep on their 16.5 triples attempted per game. 

How teams score their points against Oklahoma State:

• 49.6% from twos (123rd-lowest)
• 29.1% from threes (214th)
• 21.2% from free throws (202nd)
• Opponents shooting 42.0% on twos (23rd), 31.4% on threes (87th), 66.8% on free throws (99th)

Important games to note for OK State:

• Lost 75-49 @ South Carolina (12/6) - shot 24.6% from the field and 5-24 from deep
• Won 73-55 @ Memphis (12/13) - shot 47.6% from the field, 5-13 from three, 28-36 from the foul line
• Lost 73-64 at home to Maryland (12/21) - shot 8-27 from three and 4-9 from the free throw line
• Won 74-72 (OT) @ Mizzou (12/30)
• Won 61-47 at home against Kansas State (1/3) - shot 48.9% from the field, 8-21 from three, and Kansas State kind of sucks this year
• Lost 63-61 @ Iowa State (1/6)
• Won 69-58 at home against Texas (1/10) -  let me put on my hot take hat and tell you that Texas is super overrated this year

Important games to note for Kansas:

• Beat Michigan State 61-56 (11/30)
• Beat Florida 71-65 (12/5)
• Beat Utah 63-60 (12/13)
• Lost 77-52 @ Temple (12/22) - Temple shot 58.3% from the field and help Kansas to 32.1%, and Temple's three-headed-guard-monster went for 54 points and 9 assists 
• Beat UNLV 76-61 (1/4) - shot 44.8% from the field and 42.1% from three, and held UNLV to to 30.4% from three while out-rebounding them 45-31
• Won 56-55 @ Baylor 
• Crushed Texas Tech 86-54 (1/10)

Kansas is rolling right now. Mason-Selden-Oubre-Ellis-Traylor-Alexander might be the best top 6 in the Big XII, and their only real weakness is the lack of an elite center/post player/defensive stopper. Against Oklahoma State (who lists all of their forwards as F-C instead of just F), it shouldn't be a big issue - OSU's leading rebounder/blocker is 6'8" Michael Cobbins. For size comparison purposes: Cobbins weighs as much as the 6'5" Wayne Selden. 

Pick: Kansas -7.5. Would I prefer this teased down 4 points? Absolutely. Do I trust this Kansas team enough to take care of business at home? Absolutely-er. 

#18 Oklahoma @ #16 West Virginia, 7pm, ESPNNews
Line: WVU -2.5

Oklahoma (11-4, 2-1 Big XII, 5th in the conference)

• 72.9 points per game (64th)
• 59.4 points against per game (36th)
• 40.3 rebounds per game (17th)
• 44th toughest schedule (3rd in the conference)

West Virginia (14-2, 2-1 Big XII, 3rd in the conference)

• 78.4 points per game (21st)
• 62.0 points against per game (86th)
• 38.9 rebounds per game (38th)
• 56th toughest schedule (4th in the conference)

Who beat West Virginia:

• LSU 74, WVU 73 (12/4) - the Tigers shot 46.4% from the field, 8-15 from deep, and 14-18 from the free throw line. They held West Virginia to 34.3% from the field and just 5-17 on three pointers. The Tigers out-rebounded the 'Eers 44-35. LSU got the win despite losing the turnover battle 24-12.
• Iowa State 74, West Virginia 72 (1/10) - the Cyclones shot a neat 25-50 from the field. They were only 6-17 from the field, but they got to the line a LOT and finished 18-27 on free throws. WVU shot 32.4% from the field, 24.1% from three, and lost the turnover battle 18-9. It's really a credit to them that they found a way to win. They attempted 18 more field goals, and really this game was only close because they grabbed 18 offensive rebounds. 

Who beat Oklahoma:

• Creighton 65, Oklahoma 63 (11/19) - neither team played well
• Wisconsin 69, Oklahoma 56 (11/28) - Wisconsin is an elite team, or so we thought. Neither team shot exceptionally well, but Wisconsin won the turnover battle 21-11 and the assist battle 19-6. That's just one team being a head above the other. 
• Washington 69, Oklahoma 67 (12/20) - two evenly matched teams, Washington just shot the ball well enough to overcome their turnovers
• Kansas State 66, Oklahoma 63 (1/10) - I touched on KSU and how they stink earlier, but Oklahoma stunk more this game. They shot 40.4% from the field, 33.3% from three, 63.2% from the line, and lost the rebounds/assists/turnovers battles. Woof. 

At this point, I'm leaning towards WVU. I think they are underrated, and I think Oklahoma is properly rated in the late teens. I just want to confirm some stats to make sure this isn't a bonehead bet.

Oklahoma gets 53.9% of its points from two pointers, which is 98th-most in the country. That's the most heavily that OU relies on any area of the court (relative to other teams), and they shoot 49.3% on twos, which is a pretty pedestrian 119th in the country. 

West Virginia allows twos to make up only 48.6% of their opponents' points, which is 94th in the country. However, they allow their opponents to make 49.8% of twos, which is just 246th. 

On the other side of the ball, WVU also tends to lean pretty heavily on twos (55.2% of their points, 70th-most in the nation).  Similar to the Sooners, they shoot a less-than-stellar 48.0% from two (161st in the country). 

On defense, Oklahoma allows its opponents to score 54.5% of their points from two (76th-most in the country), but allows them to shoot just 40.6% (12th-lowest in the country). So figure that one out. 

Pick: I hate it. I hate this game and I hate betting it from either side. Stick with Kansas and save yourself the despair. 

Wednesday Night Basketball Picks

Last night, we got a poor, POOR display out of UMass. Really, really bad. Northern Illinois covered their spread though, and so the damage is essentially zero (and also that's how Vegas makes their money).

MACtion is tough, though. We already knew that. So let's change gears and exploit some early-season question marks in the college basketball world. There are two games featuring teams from major conferences (the Big East still counts, right?):

Oklahoma (-220) @ Creighton (+185), 7pm on Fox Sports 1
Line: Oklahoma -5.5

Quote: "TaShawn Thomas is a season-changing addition for Oklahoma. The Sooners are going to be able to beat teams from the outside, in the paint and in transition." SB Nation

Oklahoma is projected to finish in the top half of the Big 12 (although probably in the second tier behind the Kansas-Texas-Iowa State trio). In addition to the newly-approved Thomas, they are returning talent in the frontcourt and backcourt. Read the SB Nation post for the details there, but this should be a good season for them. Creighton will be a middle-of-the-pack Big East team, so I don't think they have a shot here, even at home.

Pick: Oklahoma -5.5

Wake Forest (+700) @ Arkansas (-1100), 9pm on SEC Network

Line: Arkansas -13.5

Arkansas is projected to finish in the top third of the SEC, somewhere on the tier below Kentucky (along with Florida, Georgia, and LSU). Wake Forest is expected to be in the bottom 4-5 teams of the 15-team ACC. WFU coach Danny Manning is in his first season with the team. Arkansas forward Bobby Portis is going to be a lottery pick. 

This game scares me. Arkansas is clearly the better team, and they could use a big win over a traditionally decent team to make a statement. But 13.5 is a lot of points, and I'm nervous that Wake is a notch better than Alabama State, who put up 79 against Arkansas (but lost by 18). In the end, I'm taking the Deeks to cover the two touchdowns because they have talented guards, decent enough depth at forward, and a promising coach in Danny Manning (who won a national title at Kansas and the Conference USA title at Tulsa). Add it all up, and 13.5 is just too much.

Pick: Wake Forest +13.5