College Football Week 5 Betting Guide

West Virginia @ Oklahoma, 12pm
WVU has beaten up on Georgia Southern, Liberty, and Maryland by a combined score of 130-23. They held their only Big Five opponent to 6 points. They haven't played a road game yet, but the 'Eers went 4-1 on the road last year.

Oklahoma destroyed Akron 41-3 in their opener, then beat Tennessee 31-24 on the road, then beat Tulsa 52-38 at home.

This is a tricky game to predict, and Vegas has been holding around Oklahoma -7. I think that is too many points, so I'm on WVU +7 before it changes to +6.5

Iowa @ Wisconsin, 12pm
Wisconsin lost to Alabama in week one, and it wasn't pretty. Since then, they are 3-0 and have outscored their opponents 114-3. That was a classic B1G Cupcake Run against Miami (OH), Troy, and Hawaii, but still.... 114-3.

Likewise, Iowa has played a classic B1G Cupcake Schedule so far, beating Illinois State and North Texas at home, beating Pittsburgh at home without their only elite player, and getting a huge win on the road against The Second Worst Team In The Big 12. They are being portrayed as a stout run defense, but Wisconsin is going to run all over them.

I have no idea how this line is only 7 points. Give me Wisconsin -7 in this situation every day for the rest of the football season.

(Note: Iowa State is the second-worst team in the Big 12, but Kansas is the worst and ISU is favored by 17 against the Jayhawks this week.)

Alabama @ Georgia, 3:30
This is right from Clay Travis' preview this week: "Here's the deal, these two teams are almost completely equal except Greyson Lambert is playing much better than either of Alabama's quarterbacks. So how do you not take the better quarterback playing at home when the teams are otherwise equal? (And when Georgia can actually make a field goal). The Dawgs win, sending Alabama and Auburn to 0-2 starts in the SEC for the first time in the history of the SEC."

Clay's been hot recently, so let's go Dawgs - UGA -1.5.

Ohio State @ Indiana, 3:30
I wish I had the balls to take Indiana +21.5 here because I don't think OSU will be able to cover that, but I don't.

Ole Miss @ Florida, 7pm
I guess I don't understand how the Rebels, who beat Alabama on the road, are only favored by 7.5 against Florida. The Gators have played one possession games against Tennessee, Kentucky (!), and East Carolina (!!). Maybe throw Ole Miss into a teaser to get it closer to a pickem, but even at the regular spread I still like Ole Miss -7.5.

Notre Dame @ Clemson, 8pm
We have a very staunch "No Betting On Notre Dame" policy, but they're actually getting two points at Clemson. The Irish blew the doors off of Texas, beat Virginia (on the road) and Georgia Tech by a touchdown each, and smacked UMass last week.

Clemson dominated Wofford and App State (snore), and beat Louisville by 3 points on the road.

DeShone Kizer got his tune-up game last week against woeful UMass, and I think ND is just flat out better than Clemson. But we don't bet on them here. I'm just looking out for you guys.

Wednesday Night Duke-Notre Dame Preview

Welp, it's the two most hated teams in the country - with the exception of maybe Kentucky - going head to head in part one of their season series (part two is in a week and a half). Devils! Good Catholic Boys! Tonight on Smackdown!

#4 Duke @ #8 Notre Dame, 7:30pm, ESPN
Line: Duke -1.5, over/under 149.5

Duke (17-2, 4-2 ACC)

• 81.6 points per game
• 63.9 points against
• 49.9% field goal shooting
• Led by Jahlil Okafor (18.5 points, 9.0 rebounds, 1.5 blocks), Quinn Cook (14.3 points, 3.4 rebounds, 2.8 assists), and Tyus Jones (10.7 points, 3.2 rebounds, 5.1 assists)
• Road wins against Wisconsin (80-70), Wake Forest (73-65), Louisville (63-52), and St. John's (77-68)
• Road loss to NC State (87-75)

Notre Dame (19-2, 7-1 ACC)

• 81.9 points per game
• 63.2 points against
• 52.1% field goal shooting
• Led by Jerian Grant (17.1 points, 3.0 rebounds, 6.2 assists), Pat Connaughton (13.9 points, 8.3 rebounds), Demetrius Jackson (13.4 points, 3.4 rebounds, 3.2 assists), and Zach Auguste (13.7 points, 6.6 rebounds)
• Home wins over Michigan State (79-78 OT), Florida State (83-63), Georgia Tech (83-76 2OT), Miami (75-70)
• Home loss to Virginia (62-56)

Simply put, Duke isn't going to win many games when they give up 87 points in regulation. Notre Dame isn't going to win any games when they only score 56. 

Duke attempts 56.7 field goals (66th) and 24.9 free throws (17th) per game/ Notre Dame attempts 56.5 field goals (78th) and 19.4 free throws (214th). Both teams want to score a lot of points, and defense is definitely going to be secondary tonight. As I write this, the line opened at 149.5. I am in. Lock it down. 

As for the scoring breakdown, here is how Duke gets their points:

• 50.7% from twos (177th-most)
• 27.9% from threes (192nd)
• 21.4% from free throws (148th)

That's a nice balance for the Devils, and it makes sense because (1) they have a great balance of inside and outside scoring and (2) they have elite-caliber players at every position. For the Irish:

• 50.0% from twos (206th-most)
• 32.8% from threes (66th)
• 17.2% from free throws (328th)

On the whole, you'd like to rely more on free throws than three pointers. Obviously, there will be times where the longball just isn't falling. Surprisingly enough, that is not the reason ND got its two losses (they shot 7-21 against Providence and 10-24 against Virginia). 

Notre Dame lost those games because they didn't play defense well enough to win. Virginia shot 49% from the field and 45.5% from three, and they held the Irish to 33.9% from the field (including just 28.5% from two-point range). If the Irish weren't so hot from three, that game could have been really ugly. Against Providence, the Irish shot a pretty respectable 50% from the field and 33.3% from three, but PC shot 56%, including 14-19 from the field for 38 points (!!) out of LaDontae Henton. 

It's easy to expect the Duke-ND game to play out similar to the Providence-ND game. Both teams are going to score a lot, but Duke might be able to hold ND in check by enough to steal the game. 

But, in the words of Lee Corso, not so fast: ND actually has a pretty staunch defense. They allow opponents to shoot 44.1% on twos (63rd) and 33.3% on threes (144th) They also allow just 12.7 free throw attempts per game (2nd) - and that figure drops to 10.4 in their home games. 

Ultimately, I think Duke will prevail. ND allows its opponents to shoot threes at a decent clip, and Duke will likely finish the game making more than a third of its threes. 

That's not why I think Duke win, though. That rests on the shoulders of Jahlil Okafor, who will be going up against an ND team that features 0 players averaging a block per game. Connaughton is their leading blocker (0.9 per game), and he is only 6'5". Of the other three Shamrocks averaging half a block per game, two are also 6'5" and one is Auguste (0.8 per game for the season, 1 total in his last 4 games, 5 total in 8 ACC games). 

Okafor is going to go berserk tonight, and Duke is going to win easily because Notre Dame is going to have to double team him. And guess what happens when Cook, Rashee Sulaimon, Justise Winslow, Tyus Jones, and Matt Jones get open looks? Well, they are a combined 132-346 from deep this year (38.2%, which would be good for 37th in the country if those 5 were a team). 

I like the over tonight. At least one team is going to be in the 80's. What worries me about over 149.5 is the potential for one team to not get out of the 60's. The play is Duke -1.5, and we will see where they set Jahlil's points.