(If you missed the Louisville-Florida State preview, it's here - but I like FSU -7.)
Here are the rest of the notable 12:00 games:
West Virginia @ Baylor (-21.5)
WVU has been in a freefall, losing by 20 at Oklahoma and by 7 at home to Oklahoma State. Baylor scores 60+ points per game. I like Baylor, I wish it was inside three touchdowns, but I don't want to tease with this because it's either going to be a 30 point blowout or a single-digit nailbiter. It's tough to argue with Baylor's offense though, so I like the Bears -21.5.
Purdue @ Wisconsin (-23.5)
When you Google both of these teams, the first ESPN result is the link to the basketball page. That's a fun fact, and here's another: except for their 3 point loss at Michigan State, Purdue lost has lost their games against Big 5 opponents by 27 (Virginia Tech) and 28 (Minnesota) - and both of those games were at home. I'm almost wondering if the Boilermakers are a frisky road team because they have a home crowd that doesn't care? Couple that with Wisconsin's 1-1 B1G record (lost by 4 at home to Iowa and won by 2 at Nebraska), and I'm in on Purdue +23.5.
Ole Miss (-11) @ Memphis
Memphis is 5-0 against a bunch of crap teams. Ole Miss is 5-1 (2-1 in the SEC). In Ole Miss' only loss, Florida held them to 1 passing touchdown, 259 passing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns, and just 69 rushing yards (nice). For the season, Chad Kelly averages 310.3 yards and 2.3 touchdowns per game (with almost 1 interception per game). Their ground game averages 188.3 yards and 2.8 touchdowns per game. The issue with trying to analyze Ole Miss is they combined for 201 points (25 offensive touchdowns) against UT-Martin, Fresno State, and New Mexico State. Memphis probably won't win, but I'd like to mix this into the teaser bag to get it under a touchdown.
Iowa (-2) @ Northwestern
The friskiest team in the Big Ten getting points at home? I'm in!
Texas Tech (-32.5) @ Kansas
Kansas is another team that has the basketball page show up before the football page, and wow is it easy to see why. 0-5. Lost to South Dakota State. Lost by 32 to Memphis at home. Lost by 13 to Rutgers and by 25 to Iowa State. Coming off a 59 point loss at home to Baylor in which they only managed to score a touchdown on their first drive and go scoreless on their next thirteen. Texas Tech has been held under 50 twice this year (both times they scored 35 points) - at Arkansas, which they won, and at home to Baylor, which they lost because Baylor is Baylor. The Red Raiders beat Iowa State 66-31 last week, so transitive property tells us they should beat Kansas by 50. One of our first rules was Thirty Points Is A Lot, but I'm in on Texas Tech -32.5.
Showing posts with label wisconsin. Show all posts
Showing posts with label wisconsin. Show all posts
Friday, October 16, 2015
Friday, October 2, 2015
College Football Week 5 Betting Guide
West Virginia @ Oklahoma, 12pm
WVU has beaten up on Georgia Southern, Liberty, and Maryland by a combined score of 130-23. They held their only Big Five opponent to 6 points. They haven't played a road game yet, but the 'Eers went 4-1 on the road last year.
Oklahoma destroyed Akron 41-3 in their opener, then beat Tennessee 31-24 on the road, then beat Tulsa 52-38 at home.
This is a tricky game to predict, and Vegas has been holding around Oklahoma -7. I think that is too many points, so I'm on WVU +7 before it changes to +6.5
Iowa @ Wisconsin, 12pm
Wisconsin lost to Alabama in week one, and it wasn't pretty. Since then, they are 3-0 and have outscored their opponents 114-3. That was a classic B1G Cupcake Run against Miami (OH), Troy, and Hawaii, but still.... 114-3.
Likewise, Iowa has played a classic B1G Cupcake Schedule so far, beating Illinois State and North Texas at home, beating Pittsburgh at home without their only elite player, and getting a huge win on the road against The Second Worst Team In The Big 12. They are being portrayed as a stout run defense, but Wisconsin is going to run all over them.
I have no idea how this line is only 7 points. Give me Wisconsin -7 in this situation every day for the rest of the football season.
(Note: Iowa State is the second-worst team in the Big 12, but Kansas is the worst and ISU is favored by 17 against the Jayhawks this week.)
Alabama @ Georgia, 3:30
This is right from Clay Travis' preview this week: "Here's the deal, these two teams are almost completely equal except Greyson Lambert is playing much better than either of Alabama's quarterbacks. So how do you not take the better quarterback playing at home when the teams are otherwise equal? (And when Georgia can actually make a field goal). The Dawgs win, sending Alabama and Auburn to 0-2 starts in the SEC for the first time in the history of the SEC."
Clay's been hot recently, so let's go Dawgs - UGA -1.5.
Ohio State @ Indiana, 3:30
I wish I had the balls to take Indiana +21.5 here because I don't think OSU will be able to cover that, but I don't.
Ole Miss @ Florida, 7pm
I guess I don't understand how the Rebels, who beat Alabama on the road, are only favored by 7.5 against Florida. The Gators have played one possession games against Tennessee, Kentucky (!), and East Carolina (!!). Maybe throw Ole Miss into a teaser to get it closer to a pickem, but even at the regular spread I still like Ole Miss -7.5.
Notre Dame @ Clemson, 8pm
We have a very staunch "No Betting On Notre Dame" policy, but they're actually getting two points at Clemson. The Irish blew the doors off of Texas, beat Virginia (on the road) and Georgia Tech by a touchdown each, and smacked UMass last week.
Clemson dominated Wofford and App State (snore), and beat Louisville by 3 points on the road.
DeShone Kizer got his tune-up game last week against woeful UMass, and I think ND is just flat out better than Clemson. But we don't bet on them here. I'm just looking out for you guys.
WVU has beaten up on Georgia Southern, Liberty, and Maryland by a combined score of 130-23. They held their only Big Five opponent to 6 points. They haven't played a road game yet, but the 'Eers went 4-1 on the road last year.
Oklahoma destroyed Akron 41-3 in their opener, then beat Tennessee 31-24 on the road, then beat Tulsa 52-38 at home.
This is a tricky game to predict, and Vegas has been holding around Oklahoma -7. I think that is too many points, so I'm on WVU +7 before it changes to +6.5
Iowa @ Wisconsin, 12pm
Wisconsin lost to Alabama in week one, and it wasn't pretty. Since then, they are 3-0 and have outscored their opponents 114-3. That was a classic B1G Cupcake Run against Miami (OH), Troy, and Hawaii, but still.... 114-3.
Likewise, Iowa has played a classic B1G Cupcake Schedule so far, beating Illinois State and North Texas at home, beating Pittsburgh at home without their only elite player, and getting a huge win on the road against The Second Worst Team In The Big 12. They are being portrayed as a stout run defense, but Wisconsin is going to run all over them.
I have no idea how this line is only 7 points. Give me Wisconsin -7 in this situation every day for the rest of the football season.
(Note: Iowa State is the second-worst team in the Big 12, but Kansas is the worst and ISU is favored by 17 against the Jayhawks this week.)
Alabama @ Georgia, 3:30
This is right from Clay Travis' preview this week: "Here's the deal, these two teams are almost completely equal except Greyson Lambert is playing much better than either of Alabama's quarterbacks. So how do you not take the better quarterback playing at home when the teams are otherwise equal? (And when Georgia can actually make a field goal). The Dawgs win, sending Alabama and Auburn to 0-2 starts in the SEC for the first time in the history of the SEC."
Clay's been hot recently, so let's go Dawgs - UGA -1.5.
Ohio State @ Indiana, 3:30
I wish I had the balls to take Indiana +21.5 here because I don't think OSU will be able to cover that, but I don't.
Ole Miss @ Florida, 7pm
I guess I don't understand how the Rebels, who beat Alabama on the road, are only favored by 7.5 against Florida. The Gators have played one possession games against Tennessee, Kentucky (!), and East Carolina (!!). Maybe throw Ole Miss into a teaser to get it closer to a pickem, but even at the regular spread I still like Ole Miss -7.5.
Notre Dame @ Clemson, 8pm
We have a very staunch "No Betting On Notre Dame" policy, but they're actually getting two points at Clemson. The Irish blew the doors off of Texas, beat Virginia (on the road) and Georgia Tech by a touchdown each, and smacked UMass last week.
Clemson dominated Wofford and App State (snore), and beat Louisville by 3 points on the road.
DeShone Kizer got his tune-up game last week against woeful UMass, and I think ND is just flat out better than Clemson. But we don't bet on them here. I'm just looking out for you guys.
Friday, January 23, 2015
Saturday College Hoops Viewing/Betting Guide, Part II
If you missed part one (with the afternoon games), scroll down or click here.
Let's move on to the night games and keep this gravy train rolling.
Wisconsin @ Michigan, 7pm, ESPN
As for the actual game, I don't know. I expect Wisconsin to be heavily favored and to win by a bunch, but I don't know how much they'll end up actually winning by.
The real line to bet here is Frank Kaminsky's point total (or his point/rebound total). He averages 16.9 points and 8.2 rebounds for the season, but has bumped them up to 18.0 points and 8.8 rebounds in Big Ten play. That doesn't seem like too much of a bump, but stay with me.
Michigan's leading blocker (DJ Wilson, 0.6 blocks per game) has not played more than 1 minute since November. Their leading blocker that has played in this calendar year is is 6'7" guard Caris LeVert, with 0.4 blocks per game. Oh, by the way, he broke his foot and will be out for the season. Next up are 6'9" freshmen Mark Donnal and Ricky Doyle (seriously guys, be whiter) who each average 0.4 blocks per game.
On the glass, Michigan's leading rebounder is LeVert. Behind him is 6'0" guard Derrick Walton with 4.7 rebounds per game, 6'6" guard-forward Zak Irvin with 4.0, and 6'7" guard-forward Kameron Chatman. Doyle and Donnal are right behind with 2.9 and 2.6 rebounds respectively.
Are you getting my point? Kaminsky is going to go off. 20+ points and 10+ rebounds are both locks.
Let's move on to the night games and keep this gravy train rolling.
Wisconsin @ Michigan, 7pm, ESPN
As for the actual game, I don't know. I expect Wisconsin to be heavily favored and to win by a bunch, but I don't know how much they'll end up actually winning by.
The real line to bet here is Frank Kaminsky's point total (or his point/rebound total). He averages 16.9 points and 8.2 rebounds for the season, but has bumped them up to 18.0 points and 8.8 rebounds in Big Ten play. That doesn't seem like too much of a bump, but stay with me.
Michigan's leading blocker (DJ Wilson, 0.6 blocks per game) has not played more than 1 minute since November. Their leading blocker that has played in this calendar year is is 6'7" guard Caris LeVert, with 0.4 blocks per game. Oh, by the way, he broke his foot and will be out for the season. Next up are 6'9" freshmen Mark Donnal and Ricky Doyle (seriously guys, be whiter) who each average 0.4 blocks per game.
On the glass, Michigan's leading rebounder is LeVert. Behind him is 6'0" guard Derrick Walton with 4.7 rebounds per game, 6'6" guard-forward Zak Irvin with 4.0, and 6'7" guard-forward Kameron Chatman. Doyle and Donnal are right behind with 2.9 and 2.6 rebounds respectively.
Are you getting my point? Kaminsky is going to go off. 20+ points and 10+ rebounds are both locks.
(Wisconsin -10 looks ripe, and we will see about Frank's points)
Auburn @ Alabama, 8:30pm, SEC Network
I hate this game because these two teams could play 10 times and each side would win 5, but it's obviously a huge rivalry game and Coleman Coliseum is going to be wild.
Alabama has played basically zero relevant home games. They have played teams that are either a lot better or a lot worse than Auburn (RPI 139), but here are how the Tide fared against teams that are close:
Auburn @ Alabama, 8:30pm, SEC Network
I hate this game because these two teams could play 10 times and each side would win 5, but it's obviously a huge rivalry game and Coleman Coliseum is going to be wild.
Alabama has played basically zero relevant home games. They have played teams that are either a lot better or a lot worse than Auburn (RPI 139), but here are how the Tide fared against teams that are close:
- Arizona State (RPI 137 but neutral court): Tide won 76-71
- South Florida (RPI 208): Tide won 82-71
- UCLA (RPI 64): Tide won 56-50
- North Florida (RPI 200): Tide won 76-61
- Texas A&M (RPI 42): Tide won 65-44
To their credit, the Tide have only lost games on the road (including to Iowa State on a neutral court) and a game against Kentucky. They looked really good against Arkansas, which cost us money, and I think they could win this game by a touchdown or more.
Auburn, for their part, have won every home game except Mississippi State and lost every road game. Here are their away games, and keep in mind that Alabama is 51st in the RPI:
- at Florida (RPI 79), lost 75-55
- at Colorado (RPI 90), lost 90-59
- at Clemson (RPI 96), lost 72-61
- at Vanderbilt (RPI 99), lost 64-52
- at Texas Tech (RPI 188), lost 46-44
Notice a trend? They can't score away from home! They average 76.8 points at home and 54.2 on the road. The only thing that worries me about hammering Alabama is the potential that Auburn fans could have a good showing. But Alabama is strong at home and Auburn is putrid on the road, so I think we're going to Roll Tide.
(Nevermind, Tide -11.5 is too many)
#7 Arizona @ Cal, 10:30pm, Pac-12 Network
We just saw the Zona Cats beat Stanford on the road, and I have very little doubt they will beat Cal too. The Golden Bears have won one game since December 20th, and have lost by an average of 16.2 points since that win. Couple that with the fact that Arizona has an average margin of victory of 13.2 in conference play, and it could be a rare situation where I actually like the home team. I'd love to see the spread stay around 10, but I could be persuaded to get up above a dozen or so.
(Cats -13, boom tease bag)
Arizona State @ Stanford, Midnight, ESPNU
I'm going to be perfectly honest: there is a zero percent chance that we are still awake for this game. This is going to be a hopelessly late start where you either wake up to money in your pocket or you wake up in a bad mood and it ruins your whole day.
Stanford should win this game. ASU is 1-3 on the road in the conference, 1-5 on the road overall, and 1-7 in all games away from home. Stanford's only home loss all year was 89-82 to Arizona this week, in which Arizona shot 55.6% from the field.
The question becomes how many points Stanford will cover. They beat UConn (RPI 72) by 13, Washington (54) by 8 in overtime, Washington State (117) by 15, and Wofford (50) by 15. Arizona State, for reference, is 137.
I'm hoping that their home loss to Arizona keeps this spread down to 7 or 8, but I'd still consider it up to about 10 points.
(Stanford -6.5? In! In! Hammer it!)
And, as always, if you want to throw 4 games in a teaser and hope for the best, that can really make for a fun Saturday. Today, that bag includes Kentucky early, WVU in the middle, and Arizona late.
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