Friday, January 23, 2015

Saturday College Hoops Viewing/Betting Guide, Part II

If you missed part one (with the afternoon games), scroll down or click here

Let's move on to the night games and keep this gravy train rolling.

Wisconsin @ Michigan, 7pm, ESPN

As for the actual game, I don't know. I expect Wisconsin to be heavily favored and to win by a bunch, but I don't know how much they'll end up actually winning by.

The real line to bet here is Frank Kaminsky's point total (or his point/rebound total). He averages 16.9 points and 8.2 rebounds for the season, but has bumped them up to 18.0 points and 8.8 rebounds in Big Ten play. That doesn't seem like too much of a bump, but stay with me.

Michigan's leading blocker (DJ Wilson, 0.6 blocks per game) has not played more than 1 minute since November. Their leading blocker that has played in this calendar year is is 6'7" guard Caris LeVert, with 0.4 blocks per game. Oh, by the way, he broke his foot and will be out for the season. Next up are 6'9" freshmen Mark Donnal and Ricky Doyle (seriously guys, be whiter) who each average 0.4 blocks per game.


On the glass, Michigan's leading rebounder is LeVert. Behind him is 6'0" guard Derrick Walton with 4.7 rebounds per game, 6'6" guard-forward Zak Irvin with 4.0, and 6'7" guard-forward Kameron Chatman. Doyle and Donnal are right behind with 2.9 and 2.6 rebounds respectively.

Are you getting my point? Kaminsky is going to go off. 20+ points and 10+ rebounds are both locks.

(Wisconsin -10 looks ripe, and we will see about Frank's points)

Auburn @ Alabama, 8:30pm, SEC Network

I hate this game because these two teams could play 10 times and each side would win 5, but it's obviously a huge rivalry game and Coleman Coliseum is going to be wild.

Alabama has played basically zero relevant home games. They have played teams that are either a lot better or a lot worse than Auburn (RPI 139), but here are how the Tide fared against teams that are close:

  • Arizona State (RPI 137 but neutral court): Tide won 76-71
  • South Florida (RPI 208): Tide won 82-71
  • UCLA (RPI 64): Tide won 56-50
  • North Florida (RPI 200): Tide won 76-61
  • Texas A&M (RPI 42): Tide won 65-44
To their credit, the Tide have only lost games on the road (including to Iowa State on a neutral court) and a game against Kentucky. They looked really good against Arkansas, which cost us money, and I think they could win this game by a touchdown or more. 

Auburn, for their part, have won every home game except Mississippi State and lost every road game. Here are their away games, and keep in mind that Alabama is 51st in the RPI:
  • at Florida (RPI 79), lost 75-55
  • at Colorado (RPI 90), lost 90-59
  • at Clemson (RPI 96), lost 72-61
  • at Vanderbilt (RPI 99), lost 64-52
  • at Texas Tech (RPI 188), lost 46-44
Notice a trend? They can't score away from home! They average 76.8 points at home and 54.2 on the road. The only thing that worries me about hammering Alabama is the potential that Auburn fans could have a good showing. But Alabama is strong at home and Auburn is putrid on the road, so I think we're going to Roll Tide. 

(Nevermind, Tide -11.5 is too many)

#7 Arizona @ Cal, 10:30pm, Pac-12 Network

We just saw the Zona Cats beat Stanford on the road, and I have very little doubt they will beat Cal too. The Golden Bears have won one game since December 20th, and have lost by an average of 16.2 points since that win. Couple that with the fact that Arizona has an average margin of victory of 13.2 in conference play, and it could be a rare situation where I actually like the home team. I'd love to see the spread stay around 10, but I could be persuaded to get up above a dozen or so. 

(Cats -13, boom tease bag)

Arizona State @ Stanford, Midnight, ESPNU

I'm going to be perfectly honest: there is a zero percent chance that we are still awake for this game. This is going to be a hopelessly late start where you either wake up to money in your pocket or you wake up in a bad mood and it ruins your whole day. 

Stanford should win this game. ASU is 1-3 on the road in the conference, 1-5 on the road overall, and 1-7 in all games away from home. Stanford's only home loss all year was 89-82 to Arizona this week, in which Arizona shot 55.6% from the field. 

The question becomes how many points Stanford will cover. They beat UConn (RPI 72) by 13, Washington (54) by 8 in overtime, Washington State (117) by 15, and Wofford (50) by 15. Arizona State, for reference, is 137. 

I'm hoping that their home loss to Arizona keeps this spread down to 7 or 8, but I'd still consider it up to about 10 points. 

(Stanford -6.5? In! In! Hammer it!) 

And, as always, if you want to throw 4 games in a teaser and hope for the best, that can really make for a fun Saturday. Today, that bag includes Kentucky early, WVU in the middle, and Arizona late. 

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