Week 7 College Football Preview: MSU @ Michigan

(In case you missed them, I broke down the Florida State-Louisville game here and the rest of the noon games here.)

Now it's time for the two biggest games of the day. Two of the three best teams in the Big Ten on one TV, and two of the five best teams in the SEC on the other. (For the record, the rest of that list is Ohio State, LSU, and then maybe Florida and Ole Miss.)

Part 1: Michigan State @ Michigan (-7), 3:30, ESPN

After their opening week loss at Utah, Michigan has won 5 games by a combined score of 160-14.

Go re-read that sentence. The Wolverines lost away from home to the best team in the Pac-12 by one touchdown. Since then, they have absolutely creamed everyone in their path. BYU and Northwestern were both ranked when Michigan beat them (31-0 and 38-0, respectfully).

The Wolverine defense is out here lambasting fools. They:

• are averaging 6.3 points against per game for the season (best in the nation)
• are second in the nation in pass yards allowed per game and third in rush yards allowed per game
• held Utah to 24 points (40.3 points per game in other games)
• held Oregon State to 79 passing yards, 59 rushing yards, and 7 points (they stink though but still)
• held UNLV to 7 points, and then UNLV put up 80 the next week (against Idaho State but still)
• shut out BYU (33.2 points per game in other games)
• held Maryland to 76 passing yards, 29 rushing yards, and 0 points (Terps kind of stink)
• shut out Northwestern and held them to 38 rushing yards (Cats averaged 248.8 rushing yards and 25.4 points in their other games)

The closest Michigan State has gotten to an elite defense are Air Force (20th in yards against, 43rd in points against), Rutgers (86th and 60th), and Central Michigan (38th and 64th). Sparty put up 35 on Air Force, 30 on Central Michigan, and 31 on Rutgers. But there really is a huge gap between the *Elite* defenses and those three. Michigan isn't going to shut out MSU, but they'll hold them under 20. 

The question then becomes whether or not Michigan can score the 32 points per game they have been averaging since the loss to Utah. Here's what MSU's defense has been able to do:

• Western Michigan scored 24 points and threw 2 interceptions. In their two other losses (Georgia Southern and Ohio State), they averaged just 14.5 points. In WMU's two wins (Murray State and Central Michigan), they averaged 46.5 points. That WMU team is so all over the map I don't even know what to make of them
• Oregon scored 28 points. Besides their Utah game (when they only scored 20), the Ducks are averaging 50.3 points per game. That MSU-Oregon-Utah-Michigan connection has to mean something, and here I think it means the game should stay in the 20s?
• MSU held Air Force at 21 points, below their average of 29.8 for the rest of their games
• Central Michigan scored just 10 points, well below their average of 25.8 in the rest of their games
• Purdue stinks, but even at 1-5 they've still averaged 25.8 points per game on the season, and 21 of them came against MSU
• Rutgers has been all over the place offensively. Here are their point totals (in increasing order): 3-24-27-34-63. That 24 was last week against MSU

I think this is going to be very close to the spread. I like Michigan to win, and I think they do it by more than a touchdown. If you have a tease bag started already (like maybe with FSU?), throw the Wolverines in. If you're betting games on their own, I'm in on Michigan -7. 

Saturday College Hoops Viewing/Betting Guide, Part II

If you missed part one (with the afternoon games), scroll down or click here. 

Let's move on to the night games and keep this gravy train rolling.

Wisconsin @ Michigan, 7pm, ESPN

As for the actual game, I don't know. I expect Wisconsin to be heavily favored and to win by a bunch, but I don't know how much they'll end up actually winning by.

The real line to bet here is Frank Kaminsky's point total (or his point/rebound total). He averages 16.9 points and 8.2 rebounds for the season, but has bumped them up to 18.0 points and 8.8 rebounds in Big Ten play. That doesn't seem like too much of a bump, but stay with me.

Michigan's leading blocker (DJ Wilson, 0.6 blocks per game) has not played more than 1 minute since November. Their leading blocker that has played in this calendar year is is 6'7" guard Caris LeVert, with 0.4 blocks per game. Oh, by the way, he broke his foot and will be out for the season. Next up are 6'9" freshmen Mark Donnal and Ricky Doyle (seriously guys, be whiter) who each average 0.4 blocks per game.

 

On the glass, Michigan's leading rebounder is LeVert. Behind him is 6'0" guard Derrick Walton with 4.7 rebounds per game, 6'6" guard-forward Zak Irvin with 4.0, and 6'7" guard-forward Kameron Chatman. Doyle and Donnal are right behind with 2.9 and 2.6 rebounds respectively.

Are you getting my point? Kaminsky is going to go off. 20+ points and 10+ rebounds are both locks.

(Wisconsin -10 looks ripe, and we will see about Frank's points)

Auburn @ Alabama, 8:30pm, SEC Network

I hate this game because these two teams could play 10 times and each side would win 5, but it's obviously a huge rivalry game and Coleman Coliseum is going to be wild.

Alabama has played basically zero relevant home games. They have played teams that are either a lot better or a lot worse than Auburn (RPI 139), but here are how the Tide fared against teams that are close:

• Arizona State (RPI 137 but neutral court): Tide won 76-71
• South Florida (RPI 208): Tide won 82-71
• UCLA (RPI 64): Tide won 56-50
• North Florida (RPI 200): Tide won 76-61
• Texas A&M (RPI 42): Tide won 65-44

To their credit, the Tide have only lost games on the road (including to Iowa State on a neutral court) and a game against Kentucky. They looked really good against Arkansas, which cost us money, and I think they could win this game by a touchdown or more. 

Auburn, for their part, have won every home game except Mississippi State and lost every road game. Here are their away games, and keep in mind that Alabama is 51st in the RPI:

• at Florida (RPI 79), lost 75-55
• at Colorado (RPI 90), lost 90-59
• at Clemson (RPI 96), lost 72-61
• at Vanderbilt (RPI 99), lost 64-52
• at Texas Tech (RPI 188), lost 46-44

Notice a trend? They can't score away from home! They average 76.8 points at home and 54.2 on the road. The only thing that worries me about hammering Alabama is the potential that Auburn fans could have a good showing. But Alabama is strong at home and Auburn is putrid on the road, so I think we're going to Roll Tide. 

(Nevermind, Tide -11.5 is too many)

#7 Arizona @ Cal, 10:30pm, Pac-12 Network

We just saw the Zona Cats beat Stanford on the road, and I have very little doubt they will beat Cal too. The Golden Bears have won one game since December 20th, and have lost by an average of 16.2 points since that win. Couple that with the fact that Arizona has an average margin of victory of 13.2 in conference play, and it could be a rare situation where I actually like the home team. I'd love to see the spread stay around 10, but I could be persuaded to get up above a dozen or so. 

(Cats -13, boom tease bag)

Arizona State @ Stanford, Midnight, ESPNU

I'm going to be perfectly honest: there is a zero percent chance that we are still awake for this game. This is going to be a hopelessly late start where you either wake up to money in your pocket or you wake up in a bad mood and it ruins your whole day. 

Stanford should win this game. ASU is 1-3 on the road in the conference, 1-5 on the road overall, and 1-7 in all games away from home. Stanford's only home loss all year was 89-82 to Arizona this week, in which Arizona shot 55.6% from the field. 

The question becomes how many points Stanford will cover. They beat UConn (RPI 72) by 13, Washington (54) by 8 in overtime, Washington State (117) by 15, and Wofford (50) by 15. Arizona State, for reference, is 137. 

I'm hoping that their home loss to Arizona keeps this spread down to 7 or 8, but I'd still consider it up to about 10 points. 

(Stanford -6.5? In! In! Hammer it!) 

And, as always, if you want to throw 4 games in a teaser and hope for the best, that can really make for a fun Saturday. Today, that bag includes Kentucky early, WVU in the middle, and Arizona late.