Friday, October 16, 2015

Week 7 College Football Preview: Louisville @ Florida State

Last night, we were considering a parlay of Auburn -1.5, Atlanta -4, and the Mets moneyline. We decided not to bet it because parlays are stupid. We thought it would be smarter to just bet them separately. We got Atlanta into Bovada. Then their system froze or crashed or something and we couldn't place Auburn, and we kind of just forgot about the Mets.

Well Atlanta lost so we lost that money. Auburn covered and the Mets won, and we got dick to show for it.

Fucking great!

Lots of big games this weekend, let's break down some notable ones:

Louisville @ Florida State (-7.5), 12:00

What Louisville does well: Rushing. Like a lot of college teams, the Cards rely more on the run than they do on the pass. They've run for 11 touchdowns and thrown for just 5 (with 7 interceptions). They ran for 3 touchdowns when they beat Auburn, 2 when they lost to Houston, 1 when they lost to Clemson, and 1 when they beat NC State.

On the other side of the rushing game, Louisville's run defense is solid when it counts. They held Auburn to 2 touchdowns on 41 attempts, Houston to 0 touchdowns on 57 (!!) attempts, Clemson to 0 touchdowns on 40 attempts, and NC State to 1 touchdown on 30 attempts.

The Cards also defend against the pass moderately well. They had 3 interceptions against Auburn and 2 against Clemson, and they picked off Houston's Greg Ward once even though he pretty much torched them.

Florida State wants to run the ball, and there is really no denying it. They've gone for over 1000 yards through their first five games, led by Dark Horse Heisman Candidate Dalvin Cook Who Was Found Not Guilty For Allegedly Punching That Woman Outside Of That Bar and his 792 yards. Cook averages 9.0 yards per carry and has already score 8 touchdowns.

Before last week against NC State, Louisville had been giving up 4-5 yards per carry (and about a yard more than that to "feature backs"). Last week they held NC State's "feature back" Matthew Dayes to 68 yards on 19 attempts (3.6 yards per carry). Dayes isn't an elite back, but he has 10 touchdowns on the year - granted, it's against subpar competition.

Louisville isn't going to be able to contain Dalvin. They make keep him under 100 yards (doubtful), and they might even keep him out of the endzone (even more doubtful), but even if they do they will have to commit too much manpower and Everett Golson will add to his perfect 8 touchdown-0 interception stat line for the season. Tease if you have to because they're definitely winning, but I like FSU -7 (-120, buying the half a point).

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