Tuesday, August 17, 2021

"Me, Karren, Delia, and Posh Spice" - Investigating the Ted Lasso Quote About Women in the English Premier League

Quick breaking news: Ted Lasso fucking rocks. It's an elite show, and it's honestly worth an Apple+ subscription (if only for a month). It'll give you the whole spectrum of emotions in a way that I've never experienced in a show that holds itself out to be a comedy. It's wonderful, and I'm excited to see where they go with the show. As of my writing this, I have one episode left of the first season. 

That Ted Lasso emotional spectrum touches on workplace issues, sexism, relationship troubles, personal development, and everything in between. This post is going to focus on a narrow subsection of sexism. In Season 1 Episode 9, Rebecca Welton (the owner of the club at the center of the show, if you are unfamiliar) briefly mentions the lack of women in prominent roles in top-tier English football. She says, "There's, like, four of us: me, Karen, Delia, and Posh Spice." When she said it, I had no idea how these women fit into the bigger picture of English football. So I thought we'd jump  into a deep dive to learn something.  

Rebecca is a fictional character, and I'm not really interested in learning about her backstory other than what they I gather by watching the actual show. As for the other three, though, I wanted to learn more about these women, their relationships to the EPL, and how they got involved in top-tier football. 

I think Posh Spice, alternatively known as Victoria Adams Beckham, is going to receive a similarly brief summary. Unless I'm mistaken, I think her primary relationship to English football is the fact that her husband had a 20-year football playing career that included twelve seasons at Manchester United. If I'm missing something here, please drop a comment below.  

When I was trying to uncover who "Karen" was, some Google searching led me to think that it was referring to Karen Carney, "an English sports journalist and former professional footballer" presently employed by Sky Sports. I'm probably oversimplifying the comparison here, but it seems like Rebecca could have Americanized this quote by replacing Karen with the host of NBC's soccer coverage, Rebecca Lowe. 

Carney, to her credit, had a career that was not quite as long as David Beckham's but saw her appear for Birmingham City FC, Arsenal, Chelsea, and the English national team. She hails from the West Midlands, and Birmingham City seems to have been her home club (she joined them when she was eleven years old). Between her professional career, her national team career, and her work in broadcasting, she was appointed the honor of MBE in 2017. 

If I can peel back the curtain and be honest, I'm a little sad to have learned that Posh Spice and Karen Carney do not own clubs in real life the way Rebecca Welton owns one on Apple+. 

Delia Smith, however, is "famous for her role as joint majority shareholder at Norwich City FC." If I can read through the British-American language differences, I believe she dropped out of school in London at age sixteen to become a hairdresser and then a waitress and a chef. She moved into a food writing position at a British magazine, and then married the editor of the magazine. That man was Michael Wynn-Jones, who will appear more in the next paragraph. From the magazine, Smith jumped to an impressive career that spanned television, cookbooks, and supermarket commercials. 

It's obviously impossible for me to know for sure, but I get the sense that Smith's involvement with Norwich is at least partially a product of her involvement with her husband. He went from running that aforementioned magazine to owning a publishing company, and he sold that company for the equivalent of $13.4 million today. Wynn-Jones and Smith have owned Norwich since 1997, and by all accounts they are as passionate as a fan base could ever want its owners to be. Who among us wouldn't want their owner to drunkenly grab a stadium microphone and shout "A message for the best football supporters in the world: we need a 12th man here. Where are you? Where are you? Let's be 'avin' you! Come on!" 

It's also worth noting that Wynn-Jones and Smith are likely the least wealthy EPL owners, which to me makes them worthy of knowing. They're richer than I'll ever be, sure, but they aren't "live on their own private cruise ship" rich like Roman Abramovich or Sheikh Mansour.

And, to wrap this up, I'll give you an M. Night Shyamalan twist: the "Karen" that Rebecca mentioned was actually probably "Karren" as in Karren Brady, the "British business executive and television personality" who was the managing director for Birmingham City FC and is now the vice-chairman of West Ham FC. She's fucking awesome. Her complete name is The Right Honorable Baroness Karren Rita Brady, CBE. Brady's CBE is is two steps above Karen Carney's MBE, although the two honors are for different types of achievements. 

Karren's backstory is complicated for me, because I don't know whether I should be in awe of her achievements or be cynical about them. She was born in London to rich parents, but those parents were Irish and Italian immigrants. She attended day schools and boarding schools that I presume were restricted to students from well-off families, but she entered the workforce instead of continuing on to one of the elite English universities. She apparently had a knack for advertising sales (which I especially love), but her first big client was a publishing company affiliated with her father. I'll be positive and focus on the bravery that must have been required for a young woman to dive headfirst into the male-dominated field of English football. 

As the story goes, Karren saw a news story about Birmingham City FC being in receivership (that's British speak for bankruptcy, shoutout to Force India) and convinced her then-boss to buy it and put her in charge. He did, and at age 23 she became managing director of a Premier League team that traced its history all the way back to 1875. Birmingham bounced between the Premier League and the Championship (one level below) during Karren's tenure, and she moved to West Ham in 2010. 

West Ham, like Birmingham City, has a long history of football competition (West Ham began in 1895). The club have competed in the Premier League in ten of the eleven seasons since Karren joined (including the current season). They've qualified for the Europa League twice in that time, and their current roster includes household names like Yarmolenko, Souček, Cresswell, and Fabianski. It would be fairly stunning if West Ham were relegated from the Premier League anytime in the near future, which makes Karren's tenure an unquestionable success. 

I'm going to close this post by just totally ripping off a paragraph from Wikipedia, because I think it summarizes the whole point that I wanted to research this post. Karren Brady is amazing:

Brady has long been renowned for championing the cause of women in business. She has repeatedly called upon her fellow female professionals to help those trying to make their way in the business world. She explained in this Guardian column: “Any board executive can forget just how many people helped them get where they are. Those women who have got to the top need actively to ensure there is a pipeline of younger women, whether by networking or mentoring, who in turn is encouraging those below them. Women in the boardroom must not forget how many challenges and difficulties we have overcome, and we should share our coping strategies."  

“It is critical to create opportunities to identify talented women in business, then support them to develop their confidence to aim for the boardroom. We need to look outside the corporate mainstream, at female entrepreneurs and self-employed businesswomen, who can inject different insights and diversity to any board.”  

Brady famously told the Independent: "If you don't have a woman on your board you should write to your shareholders and explain why. Tell us how many women you've interviewed and what skills they've been lacking, because that will give us some basis to teach the new generation of women in business." Brady was appointed Commander of the Order of the British Empire (CBE) in the 2014 New Year Honours for services to entrepreneurship and women in business.

Tuesday, July 17, 2018

Flyers Top 25 Under 25 - Summer 2018 Edition

Before I jump in to my current ranking, here is how I ranked the boys last Winter:

1. Ivan Provorov
2. Shayne Gostisbehere
3. Nolan Patrick
4. Travis Konecny
5. Scott Laughton
6. Oskar Lindblom
7. Morgan Frost
8. Wade Allison
9. Carter Hart
10. Travis Sanheim
11. Phil Myers
12. Robert Hagg
13. Sam Morin
14. Danick Martel
15. Mike Vecchione
16. Taylor Leier
17. Mikhail Vorobyev
18. German Rubtsov
19. Nicolas Aube-Kubel
20. Tanner Laczynski
21. Anthony Stolarz
22. Felix Sandstrom
23. Mark Friedman
24. Maksim Sushko
25. Isaac Ratcliffe
Honorable Mention (in order from 26-33)
Tyrell Goulbourne
Radel Fazleev
Connor Bunnaman
Matt Strome
David Kase
Pascal Laberge
Cooper Marody
Kirill Ustimenko

And an honorable mention that I feel is notable:
  • Ollie Lycksell - Good try BSH, that's a fake name.
Turns out Ollie Lycksell actually spells his first name 'Olle' AND he's invited to Sweden's World Juniors camp, so maybe he was a bit of a miss for me. Beyond him, there are some exciting new additions to the group (the only real subtractions being Gostisbehere and Vecchione) and some players that have made significant strides forward in the past six months. 

That's going to be a challenge - there are 25 spots for 34 prospects plus a draft haul that included two first round picks. Here's how I'm ranking the lads.

1. Ivan Provorov
2. Nolan Patrick
3. Travis Konecny

My top four has not changed, but Gostisbehere graduated. Shutdown defenseman, then second-line center, then top-six winger. We know they're all going to be in the organization for a decade, and at this point I think the only question we have about potential is with Patrick. But it's a good question, as in 'how high can his ceiling go?'

4. Scott Laughton
5. Travis Sanheim
6. Oskar Lindblom
7. Robert Hagg

These guys should all be NHL regulars this year. I think Laughton's work on the penalty kill is going to be underratedly important to the team's success this year, and I think Lindblom might even be joining him in that department. Robert Hagg is a fine player, but the upside of Sanheim (if he can hit that upside, with Hagg or MacDonald or Gudas or whomever) means he could potentially take the leap to the group above this one. 

8. Carter Hart

I'm penciling him in here between the sure-thing NHLers and the could-be NHLers even though he's probably not an NHLer this year. Simply put, the pressure of being the Flyers' future franchise goalie is second only to being the goalie for Team Canada. Hart's .930 save percentage in last year's World Juniors (they won gold) tells you all you need to know about his mental makeup. 


9. Morgan Frost
10. Philippe Myers
11. Sam Morin

God I hope these three make the big club this year. Myers probably has the best shot out of camp (since Morin is injured and Frost is still just a boy), but I rank Frost slightly ahead of him because third center (especially one of the playmaking variety instead of the checking variety) is more important than fourth or fifth defenseman. As for Sammy, I love him and I hope he jumps into the lineup after he rehabs. He's exactly what you want on your third pair for a playoff run. 

12. Felix Sandstrom

Perhaps I'm putting too much stock in this year's development camp, but all the reports that I saw showed Sandstrom as Hart's peer. They have decidedly different styles - Hart's the calming presence who specializes in positioning, Sandstrom the freak athlete-slash-contortionist - but they will eventually be a fearsome tandem. 

13. Wade Allison
14. Isaac Ratcliffe
15. Joel Farabee

None of them will sniff the NHL this year. Ratcliffe is probably the only one who will even see any AHL time. But these three represent the potential 'goal-scoring wingers' of the future. We have James van Riemsdyk and Konecny (and I guess Claude Giroux?) for now, but the thought one one day adding these three to the top nine is making my mouth water. 

16. Mikhail Vorobyev
17. Nicolas Aube-Kubel
18. Danick Martel
19. Taylor Leier

I think two of these four are going to make the Flyers out of camp. They're the NHL-AHL 'tweeners' who could probably swim if we threw them into the deep end. But that's not how Ron Hextall operates, so we'll settle with the nugget that Danick Martel led the Flyers in Shot Attempts Per Sixty Minutes last season. 

20. Maksim Sushko
21. Tanner Laczynski
22. Jay O'Brien
23. Connor Bunnaman
24. Jack St. Ivany
25. Adam Ginning

This is my ranking, so I rounded out my top 25 with the players who I'm probably higher on than most. Whether it's stories I've read or things I've seen in whatever camp or tournament I might have watched, I hope this last group all finds success on their path to the orange and black. 

Now, I'll attempt to defend the guys I left out:
  • German Rubtsov - Yes, he was a first round pick. But how long can he underachieve before we start to remove him from our plans? This year should be big for him, as Eliteprospects shows him making the jump to play for the Phantoms. Maybe the burden of having to try to score 100 points will allow him to simplify his game and focus on being a sound 200-foot player. 
  • Anthony Stolarz - It's kind of like the Rubtsov situation, though to be fair to Stolarz injuries have played a role. I think he absolutely has the chops to be an NHL goalie, but he's been in the Flyers' system for like a decade and nothing has really come of it. The battle between him and Alex Lyon (who is 25 and therefore ineligible for this list) should be a doozy this season. 
  • Mark Friedman - He's a dog, and he absolutely could have snuck into that last group of four because he plays with so much heart all the time. I guess an AHL career with the potential for an NHL call-up isn't a bad way to go. 
  • Tyrell Goulbourne - We're probably done with him on the big club. 
  • Radel Fazleev - I used to think of him and Vorobyev as a pair, but last year Vorobyev seemed to take a huge step forward while Fazleev stayed pretty steady. 
  • Matt Strome - Oh man, just wait til he learns how to skate. Then you're all in trouble!
  • David Kase - He was a victim of the depth of this prospect pool. He's a solid player but nobody really seems to be all that high on him. 
  • Pascal Laberge - God I hope he has a bounceback year with the Phantoms this year. Poor guy's brain is heartbreakingly fucked up from that cheap shot in the World Juniors a few years ago. 
  • Kirill Ustimenko - The Rinaldo pick is actually maybe a pretty good goalie?
  • Reece Wilcox - I know he re-signed with the Phantoms, but I think that's probably the end of the road for him. I don't see a way for him to leapfrog the big names ahead of him. 
  • Olle Lycksell - Like I said above, he's hopefully going to be playing in the World Juniors this year, which would be a great way for him to build some hype. 
  • Cole Bardreau - Do you think they'll give him a Dale Weise contract when Dale Weise's contract expires?
  • Wyatte Wylie - I'll quote a Flyers scout: "there's nothing really flashy but he's a pretty effective guy"- he also has a fucking sweet name. 

Tuesday, July 10, 2018

Nikita Kucherov Signed An Extension With The Lightning

The big news in the hockey world today (so far) is Nikita Kucherov's extension with the Tampa Bay Lightning. Homeboy got PAID:
I was curious about the contract specifics, because you know law school and whatnot, so I headed on over to the best website in the world, CapFriendly.  Kucherov's teammate and linemate, Steven Stamkos, famously accepted his contract extension two summers ago with the following construction:

  • $1 million per year in annual salary, split between the 180 total days in the league year
  • $7.5 million per year in a signing bonus, paid at the start of the season
We'll see if Kucherov opts for a similar structure, and to be honest that will probably be announced before I'm done writing this. 

But why set up a contract like this? I think there are two reasons:
  1. Getting a check for $7.5 million (or $8.5 million in Kucherov's case) has to be the greatest fucking feeling in the history of the world. These guys are living their childhood dreams, playing the sport they love every day, and they get to cash a check big enough to give Jose Gaspar a heart attack. 
  2. Taxes
Florida, of course, does not have a state income tax. So any money that Kucherov 'earns' in Florida would only be subject to federal taxes. 

Michael McCann broke this down in a similar fashion for recent-free-agent-but-current-Toronto-Maple-Leaf John Tavares here. The short version is Tavares cost himself almost $10 million over the life of his contract by signing in Toronto (Canada/socialist) instead of Florida (no state income tax/no laws). 

But that's really just for the salary component of the contract. There is another piece of the pie that would lead Stamkos (and I'm betting Kucherov too) to see a signing-bonus-heavy contract. Any money that he 'earns' in other states (read: road games) is subject to those states' taxes under what's commonly referred to as the Jock Tax

Of the 180-day NHL season, each team plays (checks Google) 41 road games in the regular season and 3 road games in the preseason. For Tampa this season, that breaks down like this (with state/city tax rates):

*Please note that I reached this point and realized that I don't really understand Jock Tax rates. I think it's just a percentage of the player's income that is taxable in that state/city, so we can just plug the rates from my list below in as tax that would have to be paid in addition to his US Federal taxes. Each game day that the player's team has in the 'away' state will be taxed at the following rates:

  • Florida (3x) - 0%
  • Montreal (2x) - 25.75%
  • Ottawa (2x) - 13.16%
  • Buffalo (2x) - 8.8%
  • Detroit (2x) - 6.65%
  • Boston (2x) - 5.1%
  • Toronto (2x) - 13.16%
  • Philadelphia (2x) - 6.99%
  • NY Rangers (2x) - 12.7%
  • Carolina (2x) - 5.49%
  • Nashville (2x) - 0.0%
  • Minnesota - 9.85%
  • Chicago - 4.95%
  • Colorado - 4.63%
  • Las Vegas - 0.0%
  • Arizona - 4.54%
  • Pittsburgh - 4.07%
  • New Jersey - 8.97%
  • Winnipeg - 17.4%
  • Vancouver - 14.7%
  • Calgary - 15%
  • Edmonton - 15%
  • Anaheim - 13.3%
  • Los Angeles - 13.3%
  • San Jose - 13.3% 
  • NY Islanders - 12.7%
  • Columbus - 7.63%
  • Washington - 8.85%
  • St. Louis - 7.0%
Now, if you multiply those tax rates by 1/180th of Kucherov's two potential 'salary numbers' ($1 million, or $5,556 per league day, and $8.5 million, or $47,222 per league day), here's what you get. 
  • $1m salary: additional $20,599 (2.1%) paid in jock taxes
  • $8.5m salary: additional $175,095 (2.1%) paid in jock taxes
As it turns out, it's really just a drop in the bucket either way. Obviously, to the average person, that difference of $150k would be a lot, but when your yearly earnings are almost $10 million who the hell cares. That's like me paying an extra (pulls out calculator) thousand bucks a year. Would I prefer to have that money in my pocket? Obviously. Am I going to starve to death without it? Maybe but I'll probably live. 

This exercise proved to be mostly futile, except I now have state/local tax rates for every NHL team. It really sheds a light on how much the variation in tax rates across the continent benefit teams who play their home games (and practices, and everything else) in tax havens. Yeah, Kucherov is going to get dinged for almost half a day's pay for his two trips to Montreal. But he's also not going to get dinged at all for like a hundred and forty days of the season. Jock Tax - not actually that big of a deal. It's much better to play your home games in a tax-free zone, and maybe that's why the Lightning are able to keep their talent all locked up together. 

Well, because it's the NHL and nothing really makes sense, the Florida Panthers play three hours away from Tampa with the same tax laws and their organization is a god damn mess. Eat at Arby's. 

Monday, July 2, 2018

Flyers 2018-19 Lineup, Volume 2

Well folks, Volume 1 of this season's lineup lasted for an entire week and a half. Perhaps I got started too soon and I should have waited for free agency to at least start, but honestly I didn't expect Ron Hextall to make a splash like he did. I was lured to sleep by three summers of Boyd Gordon and Dale Weise, and that's on me. I'm sorry.

BUT we have a new big strong boy in the lineup, and his name is Former Flyer James van Riemsdyk. We'll start there, because the Flyers now have an absolute no-brainer of a first line.

Giroux-Couturier-van Riemsdyk

Ignore handedness. If your reaction to this line is "well JVR usually plays left wing" then you are the worst. We're keeping our dynamic duo together and adding the BIG STRONG HARD-HITTING GOAL-SCORING WINGER that Sam Carchidi has been tweeting about with porn GIFs for like two years. Now we just need a nickname, but the only things I can think of right now are Jean-Claude Van Dam references. More like Sean Claude Van Daaaamn, am I right?

Konecny-Patrick-Voracek

I'm literally drooling.

But after the top six, it gets a little more like Yahtzee. Here's who we have left (in order of cap hit):


  • Wingers: Lehtera, Simmonds, Weise, Raffl, Lindblom, Leier, Aube-Kubel
  • Centers: Laughton, Weal, Vorobyev, Vecchione, Frost
Obviously we're pulling two guys from the pool of centers and throwing the rest into the pool of wingers.  You can mix that up five thousand different ways, but I'm tempted to start with something we know is good and fun.

The-Honey-Bees
(Leier-Laughton-Raffl)

We know they can skate with any line in the league, and they flashed some chemistry in the offensive zone. One of my criticisms of Hakstol last season was his reliance on the phrase "consistent in all three zones" combined with his abandonment of this line that was.. consistent in all three zones. Let's bring back the Honey Bees 2k18.

Here's where it really gets tough for me. A Lindblom-Weal-Simmonds line is the best way to get NHL experience on the third line, but at some point we're going to have to get Nic Aube-Kubel, Misha Vorobyev, Mike Vecchione, and Morgan Frost in the lineup.

Lindblom-Weal-Simmonds 

Ron preaches patience, though, and I think we'll get that as the third line to start the season. Based on Charlie O'Connor's tweets it seems like Hextall likes Weal at center, which means we'll get another year of slow cooking for Vorobyev and Frost. And Mike Vecchione, the most unlucky player in the NHL, will continue to have his plans shattered by the lottery that netted the Flyers Nolan Patrick.

On the back end of the lineup, the big news is Brandon Manning signed with the Blackhawks so we can officially shut the door on him as a Flyer. We can also shut the door on Dougie Hamilton, as he's a Carolina Hurricane and presumably no longer on the trading block. Here's how I'd fill out the defense:

Provorov-Gostisbehere

Old reliable.

Sanheim-Hagg

I like the potential for Sanheim's dynamic game paired with Hagg's steady physical presense.

MacDonald-Myers

I mean obviously that last spot on the right side is going to be Gudas but a kid can dream.

Wednesday, June 20, 2018

Flyers (2018-19) Lineup, Volume 1

We are pre-draft, pre-free-agency. We are very extremely way too early in the NHL year to be doing this. Honestly, with the NHL Awards tonight we might not even be in the new league year yet.

Nevertheless, I saw a tweet today:
And I would like to participate in the on line activities.

First note: you'll notice that a certain winger who wears #17 is not included. I'm buying into the rumors that Simmonds is on the trading block, and I've had him shipped off to Calgary for months now (more on that in a minute).

So here's how I'd complete Sauce's post:

Giroux-Couturier-Konecny
Weal-Patrick-Voracek
Lindblom-Vorobyev(1)-Rick Nash(2)
Vecchione-Laughton-Raffl(3)

(1) Mikhail Vorobyev  and Nicolas Aube-Kubel are both NHL-ready and I won't listen to anyone who tells me otherwise. 

(2) A veteran winger with goal-scoring and penalty-killing ability and some deep playoff runs under his belt? Why the fuck would you not want Rick Nash? For what it's worth, Matt Cane's free agent salary projector has Nash getting a 1-year, $4.6 million dollar contract. If you want to bump it to 2 years and $8.5 million, that's a-okay with me. 

(3) I think he admitted this after the fact but he just left Raffl off. I guess I'll note here that I'd also be fine with Taylor Leier in the Vecchione spot, because the Honey Bees fucking rocked. 

Now, to address Simmonds. I read something once several months ago about Calgary's GM wanting to toughen up his team and his room. So, of course, we're shipping Simmonds and Gudas to Calgary for Dougie Hamilton (three years remaining at $5.75m per). Simmonds takes one of the alternate captain patches and the new pair immediately brings a new kind of brutality to Calgary that they apparently need (I don't know). 

But I would think we'd have to sweeten the pot, right? I mean it's three years of a top-four guy who can play on the power play in exchange for perhaps just one year of a power forward and two years of someone who has only been a top-pairing guy when he was stapled to Ivan Provorov. 

I looked back through some trades to find defensemen similar to Hamilton who have been moved:
  • Ryan McDonagh - Granted, this was a deadline acquisition (plus another year) that also included JT Miller. But it netted NYR Vlad Namestnikov, two decent-at-worst prospects, and a first round pick
  • I just want to note that I'm not going to use Dion Phaneuf as a comparable, even though it would make Simmonds+Gudas look like a great deal for the Flames
  • Sami Vatanen - NJD spent Adam Henrique (with a year and a half remaining), a minor-leaguer, and a third-round pick
  • Travis Hamonic - He cost Calgary a first-round pick and two second-round picks
  • Niklas Hjalmarsson - Arizona paid Connor Murphy (career high 17 points in a season) and Laurent Dauphin (who they eventually traded back to Arizona in the Anthony Duclair trade but scored 0 points in 2 NHL games last season)
That's not a lot to go on, especially since nobody listed above has really filled the scoresheet like Hamilton (17-27--44 last year, 52-127--179 over the last four season). McDonagh's best four-year stretch was 152 points, and if last year was an indication then he seems to be declining in terms of offensive production. I think Vatanen is good because Hockey Twitter has warped my mind, but he's totaled 103 points in the past four seasons. Ditto Hamonic, who has reached 30 points just once in his career. Hjalmarsson has never even reached the 30 mark (though to be fair he's a 'proven winner' so his trade value was probably inflated). 

I think all four of those comparables are probably 'better defensively' than Hamilton, while also not as good offensively. McDonagh would probably be the best comparable, though it's tough to gauge what he actually fetched because his package included a 25-year-old, 50-60-point-per-year guy. 

If I have to try to summarize this and wrap it up, I think Simmonds-Gudas aren't enough. That pair would basically amount to what New Jersey sent Anaheim for Vatanen, and Hamilton scores about twice as much as him. I think Calgary would want a pick or prospect, and that's where it gets dicey for me because I don't know how the Flyers (or the Flames) value Philly's prospect pool. I guess I would just blindly trust Ron Hextall to include a sweeter that wasn't too sweet. 

And, alas, here is the bottom half of the depth chart that I started fifty paragraphs ago:
Provorov-Hamilton
Gostisbehere-Myers
Sanheim-Hagg
MacDonald

Elliot
Lyon

Tuesday, April 24, 2018

Flyers Draft Preview - Forwards In The 14-20 Range

With the book on wacky, up-and-down, sometimes-great-sometimes-miserable 2017-18 Flyers season now closed, it's time to look to the future. It's almost certainly brighter than this year's Penguins series, and it's going to get at least a little bit brighter this June in Dallas.

The Flyers, with their first-round exit, will own the 19th pick in the draft. They will likely also claim St. Louis' pick as a result of the Morgan Frost Trade (that's what we're calling it now), which will has a 95% chance of being 14th overall and a 2% chance of being 15th.

  • St. Louis has a 5% chance of winning the lottery and moving into the top three, in which case they can defer the pick to next year's draft.
  • Florida has a 3.3% chance of winning the lottery and bumping the Flyers' pick from 14th down to 15th. 
So we're going to be able to add something decent. Here are some notable players who were taken in that late-teens-to-early-twenties range over the past several years:
  • 2017 - Juuso Valimaki, Timothy Liljegren, Filip Chytl
  • 2016 - Charlie McAvoy, Jakob Chychrun, German Rubtsov
  • 2015 - Matthew Barzal, Brock Boeser, Travis Konecny
  • 2014 - Dylan Larkin, Travis Sanheim, David Pastrnak
Now, obviously, draft picks are all lottery tickets and this doesn't mean we're going to just be able to plus McAvoy- and Pastrnak-equivalents into the lineup next season. But Ron Hextall has a proven track record of nailing draft picks, and there's a reasonable hope that he's going to grab two young guys who will contribute tangibly in two or three years. 

Even though I'm wildly underqualified - and I will freely admit that I'm going to blindly trust Ron on whoever he ends up drafting - I want to learn more about the guys who should be on the board when it's Philadelphia's turn to select this summer. I'm going to focus on forwards, because (1) we already have so many defenseman and (2) forwards tend to translate in a more predictable way, and also they're ready to go quicker. 

Let's split them into two groups, just for the sake of making this as easy as possible for me. Most of the NHL draft prospect websites tend to agree on where certain players rank on the 'big board', so we have a decent idea of who *might* be on the board for the Flyers and who *should* be.

All rankings and breakdowns are provided by the wonderful Eliteprospects unless I linked another source. I leaned on Corey Pronman (from The Athletic) because he's the best at this stuff. Mile High Hockey, SB Nation's Avs site, had a bunch of these guys reviewed because the Avs' pick projects to be right in the same neighborhood as the Flyers'. 

Forwards That Probably Won't Be On The Board, But Might, Maybe


Image result for Joel Farabee

Joel Farabee, winger, US National Development Team
6,0", 168 pounds
Ranked between 8th and 16th by the big four hockey prospect sites
"Dangerous two-way forward who uses his legs and IQ to make something happen most shifts"
“Super slick playmaker from the wing. He has excellent vision and playmaking abilities. Somewhat slight of frame, but is slippery enough to avoid big contact.” source
"Cerebral three-zone playmaker who consistently adheres to textbook fundamentals in addition to being one of the most lethal scorers in his draft class. He can tailor his style to fit any game — wide open, slogging matches, physical…it simply does not matter. Farabee is a top-line winger for the NTDP and he plays that role in every situation no matter the score or time on the clock." source

Image result for Jesperi Kotkaniemi

Jesperi Kotkaniemi, center, Ässät (Finland)
6'2", 190 pounds
Ranked between 10th and 18th by the big four hockey prospect sites 
"A smart forward with a dangerous shot, Kotkaniemi possesses a high hockey IQ and determination with the skills to back it up. Positions himself well and often seems to be a step ahead of plays. Stickhandling and creativity allow him to split professional defences as a teenager. Decent size and frame, yet a very capable skater."
"Alert and versatile forward with good speed and a wide range of attributes who has performed well beyond expectations as a 17-year-old playing key minutes in Finland’s top league. Kotkaniemi comes across as a smart, clean player with or without the puck and can play either center or wing. He is used on the penalty kill and in late-game situations, showing defensive prowess regardless of the job he’s assigned. He has a nose for sniffing out opposing intentions, and his quick hands and keen vision can turn a run-of-the-mill enemy breakout into a quality chance for him or his mates." source

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Grigori Denisenko, winger, Yoko Yaroslavl (KHL)
5'10", 165 pounds
Ranked between 11th and 21st by the big four hockey prospect sites
"Displays high skill level and skating agility with the puck on his stick…a playmaker with the shooting ability to finish chances himself."
"As a traditional Russian winger, Denisenko can boast in his arsenal tremendous puck-handling skills, excellent skating with high top speed, and a good nose for spotting an open partner. All this packed in a compact 5-foot-11, 175-pound body that will surely cause him to slip down a bit in the draft day, even if size in the NHL has not a dramatic impact as it used to have." source
"Many NHL teams may also be concerned by his maturity. He likes to (over)play the puck and is prone to “bad discipline” penalties."
“Denisenko is one of the most skilled players in his draft class. On a pure talent level, he’s one of, it not the top Russian in this draft class (and no I didn’t forget about Andrei Svechnikov). Denisenko manipulates the puck so well and does so at high speeds.” source

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Rasmus Kupari, center, Hermes (Finland)
5'11", 163 pounds
Ranked between 12th and 22nd by the big four hockey prospect sites
"He is a mix of Jesse Puljujärvi and Sebastian Aho. Slick Finnish forward, very dangerous with the puck on his stick, always a threat offensively."
"Kupari is a highly skilled, playmaking center. He is undersized, but is a strong skater with a high hockey IQ and hockey sense that makes him a dangerous offensive player and a reliable defensive player. He started the season playing at the pro level in Liiga, but after struggling somewhat was loaned to Hermes in the Mestis. Don’t be discouraged by this apparent set back as an undersized 17-year-old, undersized player it simply means Kupari needs more development time before he is pro ready. Kupari has a high ceiling, and drawing comparisons to countryman Sebastian Aho gives you an indication of his upside, but he is a long term investment." source

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Isac Lundestrom, center/winger, Luleå (Sweden)
6'0", 185 pounds
Ranked between 11th and 20th by the big four hockey prospect sites
"One of the younger players in the draft class, that didn't stop him from centering the first line of Sweden's World Junior Tournament silver medal winning team. Dependable, reliable and responsible are what scouts thought a year ago, and only solidified that opinion this season with strong work in the faceoff circle, decent use of his size, skating ability and smarts while on the ice. Very versatile as he can line up at any of the three forward positions, the power play, and penalty kill. Works hard, drives the net, pressure the opposing defensemen, and creates turnovers. Drives to the net, and is decent in the defensive zone. The team that takes him his making a safe selection based on his all-around attributes that point upward." source

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Joseph Veleno, center, Drummondville (Canada)
6'1", 194 pounds
Ranked between 9th and 23rd by the big four hockey prospect sites
"There is so much to like about Joe Veleno. He's a hard-nosed workhorse that makes the players around him better. The fleet-footed center is unselfish and will primarily look to make a play at top speed; however, when the chance arises to put it in the pot himself, he will capitalize. He sees the ice well and is rarely caught out of position. His defensive game is refined and he actively pursues puck control. Transitioning to offence is natural, smooth, and quick. All-in-all, a well-rounded two-way forward that skates well and can be the catalyst a team needs to turn a game in its favor. If he can find the consistency in refusing to let himself get taken out of plays, especially if he doesn't start them, he will thrive and exceed expectations."

Forwards That Probably Will Be On The Board, Almost Definitely, I Hope


Image result for Martin Kaut,

Martin Kaut, winger, Dynamo Pardubice (Czech)
6'1", 174 pounds
Ranked between 17th and 34th by the big four hockey prospect sites
"The combination of his passing and shooting ability makes him a threat on the powerplay."
"I don’t have him in my first [round], but the buzz right now in the industry is he could go there, especially after showing well last week on the Czech national team. I’m not sure he’s dynamic enough for that slot. Good not great hands, average feet. Very smart though." source

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Dominik Bokk, winger, Vaxjo Lakers (Sweden)
6'1", 179 pounds
Ranked between 21st and 46th by the big four hockey prospect sites 
"A highly talented winger with one on one ability, quick hands, and creative passing. Can challenge goalies with his shot, too."
"Bokk is a unique prospect. What's evident from watching roughly 15 of Bokk's games this season is his skill and creativity. He is one of the most skilled players in the draft. His puck handling is elite for a player his size and, when I've talked to management from his German national teams, they specifically point to his skill as his best attribute. I'd characterize Bokk as a playmaker, but he does have a very good shot. Most scouts I've talked to describe Bokk as soft, indifferent off the puck and not very smart defensively." source

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Vitali Kravtsov, winger, Traktor Chelyabinsk
6'2". 183 pounds
Ranked between 24th and 35th by the big four hockey prospect sites
"A big, skilled winger that can play up and down the lineup and provide scoring in a number of roles. He brings grit and physical size, but could be more assertive in throwing his weight around more. Displays excellent speed on the rush and in zone entry, but could backcheck quicker. Plays well in his own end and takes away lanes. Very good hands and awareness. Kravtsov has the potential to develop into a staple top six forward that can produce at the next level."
"There’s no prospect creating more of a buzz the past few weeks than Kravtsov in the KHL playoffs. He’s getting ice time on the second power play unit and regular even strength. He showed nice skills and speed for his size, but has a very straight line style without a ton of plays. Then all of a sudden, he starts lighting the world on fire, his goals spreading across the hockey community. The clubs that have watched him, from what I’ve heard, love him." source

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Barrett Hayton, center, Soo Greyhounds (Canada)
6'1", 185 pounds
Ranked between 12th and 27th by the big four hockey prospect sites
"Hayton is really smart. Good skill but probably not high-end. He can project as an above-average center at both ends of the rink." source
"Hayton is one of the best two-way forwards in the draft. His hockey IQ is quite impressive. Hayton has the reliable defensive forward sense and work ethic off the puck where he makes good defensive plays and wins pucks, and I like his vision and composure with the puck. Hayton also features a heavy shot and can finish chances well. The main issue in projecting him to the NHL is his feet. He really doesn’t have an explosive element and can struggle to push defenders back off the rush, but he gets where he needs to by working hard." source

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Serron Noel, winger, Oshawa (Canada)
6'5", 209 pounds
Ranked between 21st and 31st by the big four hockey prospect sites
"Serron Noel is a project that is going to be well worth the wait. His game is very raw and there is a lot of work to be done, but he has the potential to be an impact power forward in the NHL. He has proven the ability to put the puck in the net, particularly in close to the crease. Noel only really shoots the puck from high-danger areas, as a result, he’s got an abnormally high shooting percentage. Noel isn’t going to drive your team’s offense. He is below average when it comes to zone entry attempts. He works hard on the back check and was one of the best Oshawa forwards when it came to controlled zone exits this season." source
"There’s been a lot of buzz for Noel this season for this draft. Some fans who haven’t seen him, might Google him quickly and see fine but not great stats in the OHL and think this is a classic case of overvaluing size because he is 6-foot-5. That might be true to some extent, but Noel has some real ability. He has good puck skills, skates decent and can create offense; and with his frame, he is one of the best forwards around the net and on the boards in this class. The questions going forward are just how skilled is he and whether he’s smart enough to make plays at an NHL pace." source

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Jay O'Brien, center, Providence (USA)
6'0", 174 pounds
Ranked between 31st and 42nd by the big four hockey prospect sites
"His prep coach, Tony Amonte, envisions him in The Show. 'Jay seems to have all the aspects of a professional. He wants it bad enough, he puts work in the gym, he shows up to work every day, he leads by example in practice.'" source
"What is the scouting report/consensus on Jay O'Brien in terms of his potential? Is he a first-round talent? -- No, not dynamic enough. Second or third round." source

Summary/Wish List

Wish list players are notated with an asterisk (*)

*Joel Farabee - We'd probably have to trade up, but I like him. 

*Jesperi Kotkaniemi - Again, we'd probably have to trade up, but I like him. 

Grigori Denisenko - I don't think I want him, if only because the "Russian thing" that always happens seems inevitable. 

*Rasmus Kupari - He's the Scandanavian Travis Konecny, which is absolutely a good thing. 

*Isac Lundestrom - I love him. My expert projection is he'll do a year in the AHL and then immediately be ready to anchor an NHL line. Lock it down. 

*Joseph Veleno - I don't know how you can read that review and also have him ranked this low, but here we are. My gut says someone will love him in the 9-12 range, but if he's around at 15 it seems like he's kind of a no-brainer. 

Martin Kaut - No thanks - we already have our right-handed power play guy who can't do anything at even strength (this was a Claude Giroux joke, sorry). 

*Dominik Bokk - I like him but if Hextall reaches and takes him with 19 I would worry about the bust factor. If we trade down a few spots (like Hextall did when he took Rubtsov) then I like him a lot. 

*Vitali Kravtsov - Big Skilled Gritty Winger Inject Him Into My Veins!!

Barrett Hayton - What you don't get from that scouting report is he has a dumb face. 

Serron Noel - He's Oliver Lauridsen and Sam Morin, but on offense. Though the thought of pairing him and Isaac Ratcliffe on a line together one day is extremely intriguing. At the end of the day, I got hurt too much with Sam Morin and I don't think I'm ready for another project right now. 

Jay O'Brien - He's all intangibles, which means he'll probably play 15 years in the AHL and maybe be a solid fourth-liner in the NHL for a while. I'd rather aim higher with a first round pick (this was a Tom Wilson joke, sorry). 

Monday, March 12, 2018

2018 NCAA Tournament Preview (Running Blog)

I'm just going to throw everything into buckets, and then we'll try to apply it to the actual bracket. Let's start the way I always start NCAA basketball previews.

Teams That Rely On Three Pointers
6. Davidson (41.9% of their points come from three point field goals)
13. UMBC (40.7%)
20. Villanova (39.3%)
26. Missouri (39.0%)
37. South Dakota St (37.5%)
42. Kansas (37.4%)
45. Georgia St (37.2%)
48. Creighton (37.0%)
55. Michigan (36.5%)
72. Florida (36.0%)
82. Purdue (35.4%)
84. Auburn (35.1%)
86. Nevada (35.0%)

Teams That Defend Well Against Three Pointers
2. Penn (29.7% opponent three point field goal percentage)
3. Kentucky (29.9%)
6. Virginia (30.3%)
7. Murray St (30.8%)
8. New Mexico St (30.8%)
10. Cincinnati (30.9%)
12. Nevada (31.2%)
14. NC State (31.6%)
18. Alabama (31.9%)
19. Tennessee (31.9%)
22. Providence (32.1%)
23. St. Bonaventure (32.1%)
24. Duke (32.1%)
29. Missouri (32.3%)
33. Texas A&M (32.4%)
40. Miami (32.6%)
41. Kansas (32.7%)
42. LIU Brooklyn (32.7%)
45. Villanova (32.8%)
46. Houston (32.8%)
47. Texas Tech (32.8%)
50. Syracuse (32.8%)

Some notes on that: Virginia and Kentucky are going to THROTTLE Maryland-Baltimore County and Davidson - parlay it, hammer it, lock it up. Cincinnati is probably going to beat the shit out of Georgia State too. You might be tempted to flirt with Penn against Kansas, and maybe a huge point spread would make that okay.

Teams That Rely On Free Throws To Score
9. Syracuse (24.0% of their points come from free throws)
14. Auburn (23.2%)
26. Kentucky (22.4%)
27. Lipscomb (22.3%)
28. St. Bonaventure (22.3%)
29. Arizona State (22.3%)
37. Xavier (22.2%)
39. Bucknell (22.0%)
45. Providence (21.7%)
53. Tennessee (21.4%)
56. Alabama (21.3%)
57. Montana (21.1%)
60. Texas Tech (21.1%)

Teams That Don't Allow Their Opponent Many Free Throws
1. Duke (0.171 opponent free throws attempted per offensive play)
5. Purdue (.181)
8. Creighton (.187)
11. Kansas (.188)
13. Loyola Chicago (.190)
14. Virginia (.190)
15. Xavier (.191)
17. Villanova (.192)
21. Oklahoma (.195)
23. Texas (.195)
24. North Carolina (.196)
25. Cincinnati (.196)
29. South Dakota St (.199)
34. Clemson (.202)
45. Miami (.209)

Notes: UNC should handle Lipscomb pretty easily.

The Tuesday Play-In Games

*Please note that rankings are out of the 351 Division 1 teams, via TeamRankings.com

Long Island vs. Radford (-4.5)

LIU Brooklyn Blackbirds

  • 76.7 points for (77th), 76.8 points against (275th)
  • Pace: 121.3 total, 58.4 FGA for (156th), 62.9 FGA against (331st)
  • For: 52.3 2FG% (75th), 34.8 3FG% (177th), 22.5 FTA/game (47th)
  • Against: 50.4 2FG% (198th), 32.7 3FG% (42nd),  20.2 FTA/game (220th)
  • 28.2% offensive rebounding (127th), 72.5% defensive rebounding (209th)
  • 5.0% blocks (229th)
  • Leading scorers: G Joel Hernandez (20.9 pts, 46.5 FG%, 38.0 3FG% on 4.4 attempts/game, 66.5 FT% on 6.5 attempts/game); G Raiquan Clark (17.4 pts, 55.7 FG%, 22.4 3FG% on 0.8 attempts/game, 75.2 FT% on 6.9 attempts/game)

Radford Highlanders

  • 66.9 points for (303rd), 64.9 points against (18th)
  • Pace: 107.6 total, 54.8 FGA for (299th), 52.8 FGA against (17th)
  • For: 47.3% 2FG (227th), 35.1% 3FG (166th), 17.3 FTA/game (274th)
  • Against: 48.4% 2FG (110th), 34.2% 3FG (127th), 16.6 FTA/game (52nd)
  • 30.5% offensive rebounding (64th), 73.9% defensive rebounding (149th)
  • 5.5% blocks (190th)
  • Leading scorers: F Ed Polite (13.5 pts, 48.5 FG%, 28.6 3FG% on 2.3 attempts/game, 72.0 FT% on 4.8 attempts per game); G Carlik Jones (11.8 pts, 41.8 FG%, 31.9 3FG% on 3.3 attempts/game, 77.0 FT% on 3.6 attempts/game)

The most obvious discrepancy is the pace. Radford wants to play painfully slow, and LIU wants to play a more average kind of game. Even if LIU were to turn up the pace a bit, Radford's decent advantage on the glass is a definite point in their favor. Where LIU can bridge the gap is their decided shooting advantage, primarily in terms of two-point completion percentage and free throw attempts. However, that LIU FTA/game stat is kind of misleading because it's impacted by pace. If you adjust it to FTA/FGA, LIU's 0.385 is around the nationwide average, but Radford's defense only allows 0.314 FTA/FGA. Bovada presently has the over/under set at a measly 139 points, which means they think it'll be more Radford's style of game. I tend to agree, and I like Radford -4 or -4.5. At the very least, throw it in your teaser bag.

St. Bonaventure vs. UCLA (-3.5)

St. Bonaventure Bonnies
  • 77.9 points for (59th), 71.0 points against (130th)
  • Pace: 114.1 total, 57.8 FGA for (180th), 56.3 FGA against (106th)
  • For: 48.6 2FG% (224th), 39.8 3FG% (19th), 0.399 FTA/FGA (37th)
  • Against: 49.6 2FG% (162nd), 32.1% 3FG (23rd), 0.393 FTA/FGA (294th)
  • 29.0% offensive rebounding (109th), 73.7% defensive rebounding (161st)
  • 6.4% blocks (112th)
  • Leading scorers: G Jaylen Adams (19.8 pts, 45.4 FG%, 45.7 3FG% on 6.3 attempts/game, 85.6 FT% on 6.4 attempts/game; G Matt Mobley (18.5 pts, 42.7 FG%, 38.3 3FG% on 8.3 attempts/game, 86.1 FT% on 4.7 attempts/game)
UCLA Bruins
  • 81.9 points for (22nd), 76.3 points against (259th)
  • Pace: 125.3 total, 61.4 FGA for (39th), 63.9 FGA against (339th)
  • For: 51.3 2FG% (122nd), 38.3 3FG% (42nd), 0.359 FTA/FGA (107th)
  • Against: 47.4 2FG% (72nd), 34.9 3FG% (169th), 0.295 FTA/FGA (80th)
  • 27.9% offensive rebounding (139th), 74.6% defensive rebounding (111th)
  • 6.1% blocks (130th)
  • Leading scorer: G Aaron Holiday (20.3 pts, 46.3 FG%, 43.3 3FG% on 6.1 attempts/game, 82.6 FT% on 5.9 attempts/game)
Similar to the early game, this one features two teams who differ in pace by more than ten total possessions per game. Even considering that UCLA's Pac-12 schedule is generally more difficult than St. Bona's A10 schedule, I have a hard time picking against Adams and Mobley. They're efficient with their shots and they are both among the nation's best at the free throw line, which will help as the game comes down to the wire.

The primary worry I would have with that, though, is UCLA's 7-footer, Thomas Welsh. He takes 10.5 shots a game (though 3.4 are from three-point range) and averages 10.7 rebounds. The Bonnies' tallest players are 6'10" Amadi Ikpeze (14.2 mins, 4.7 pts, 3.1 rebs, 0.5 blks) and 6'8" Josh Ayeni (14.6 mins, 5.3 pts, 2.8 rebs, 0.1 blks). I would bank on the Bruins running a lot of their offense through Welsh, even though he's only averaged 1.4 assists per game this season.

To really fall off a cliff, here's who St. Bonaventure has faced this year with a similar profile to Welsh:

  • UCLA's Welsh (for reference): 7'0", avg 13.0 pts/10.7 rebs/0.9 blks
  • Davidson's Peyton Aldridge: 6'8", avg 21.5 pts/7.8 rebs/0.6 blks, had lines of 25/9/0, then 45/12/2, then 24/7/0 in his three games against St. Bonaventure this year
  • Richmond's Grant Golden: 6'10", avg 15.6 pts/6.7 rebs/1.2 blks, put up 24/6/1 and 9/9/0 in his two games
  • SLU's Hasahn French: 6'7", avg 9.3 pts/7.1 rebs/1.8 blks, totaled 9/5/2 and 6/16/3 in his two games
  • VCU's Justin Tillman: 6'8", avg 18.9 pts/9.9 rebs/1.0 blks, finished with 20/10/2
  • URI's Cyril Langevine: 6'8", avg 5.9 pts/5.7 rebs/1.2 blks, finished with 2/9/2 and 10/10/3
  • SJU's Pierfrancesco Oliva: 6'8", avg 6.6 pts/6.7 rebs/0.7 blks, totaled 9/8/2 and 7/7/1
  • Cuse's Oshae Brissett: 6'8", avg 14.7 pts/8.8 rebs/0/7 blks, finished with 15/13/0
  • UB's Nick Perkins: 6'9", avg 16.6 pts/6.2 rebs/0.7 blks, put up 21/8/1
What does that tell us? Well, for starters, St. Bonaventure won 10 of the 14 games against the players listed above (the losses were to SJU once, tournament-bound URI once, and tournament-bound Davidson twice). I tend to lean toward discounting Davidson and Aldridge because he's undoubtedly their best player, whereas Welsh is undoubtedly a role player for UCLA. Everyone else seems to have put up numbers in line with their season averages (both in terms of points and rebounds), and the Bonnies won the vast majority of those games. My worry about Welsh is basically mitigated - I don't know how they do it, but St. Bonaventure has been able to overcome their size disadvantage. Especially considering that Bovada has the total at 155 points (right in their usual range), I like the Bonnies. 



points for, points against
Pace: total, FGA for, FGA against
For: 2FG%, 3FG%, FTA/FGA
Against: 2FG%, 3FG%, FTA/FGA
offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding
blocks
Leading scorer