Thursday, October 22, 2015

Thursday Night Football: Seahawks @ 49ers

It seems like it was so long ago that a Seahawks-Niners game could be happening two weeks before the Super Bowl. Then Harbaugh went back to college and the Seahawks had to do the Chicago Blackhawks salary cap shed/reload move and they've started two seasons in a row poorly.

So here they are, both at 2-4 and both having showed flashes of the solid teams they've been in the recent past.

I could see tonight going a LOT of ways, but I'm going to throw out a few lines to try to build on our season record (17-20 on Monday nights and 12-11-2 on Thursday nights).

Tease Seahawks -1 and Over 36.5
Except for their Loud Fart Noise against Detroit when they scored just 13 and their loss at Green Bay when they scored 17, Seattle have scored 20+ against every team they've played so far. And they haven't been facing cupcake defenses: the Rams, Bengals, and Panthers have all been good this year. 

On the other side, San Francisco has gotten creamed by the Steelers, Cardinals, and Packers. They blew out Minnesota to start the year and have played close games against the Giants (loss) and Ravens (win) the past two weeks. 

That over/under line is set as if these two defenses were still as elite as they've been the past 5 years. But Seattle is allowing 21.3 points per game (25.6 if you factor out Chicago's 0). San Francisco is allowing 26.7 per game (31.4 if you factor out Minnesota's 3). 

Ultimately I like Seattle because of the following lines: Wilson to throw over 1.5 touchdowns pays -135, while the same line for Kaepernick pays +140. Wilson to throw an interception pays -115, while Kaepernick's line is -155. 

I think I like Seattle's spread even without the tease, and I feel the same way about the over. But teasers are the best and I could absolutely see a situation where Seattle wins 20-17. 

To Score A Touchdown:
Jimmy Graham +120
Marshawn Lynch is the only player in the game who has prohibitive odds to score a touchdown. That kind of tells you what sort of game Vegas is expecting (the Total Touchdowns line is over/under 4.5). Jimmy Graham and Doug Baldwin lead Seattle with 2 receiving touchdowns each, and Lynch actually only has 1 rushing touchdown on the year so far. The Waterbirds defense has 2 touchdowns. 

Colin Kaepernick +300
Carlos Hyde is questionable, which should increase Kap's load - and he already runs 6+ times per game. He's rushed for 228 yards and 1 touchdown, and he's about as likely as anyone on the Niners to convert in the red zone. (This paragraph was sponsored by the ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ emoji.)

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