Sorry to make you wait so long for this recap. I was out of the office Friday because I wanted to be out of the office. Also because I'm getting sick and I sound like a dead person.
Busy day today: we'll start by recapping Thursday, I'll toss in some gripes about FSU blowing up a teaser, and then we'll make some money in the Cardinals game tonight.
But first, we have to look to the past:
Teaser: Seahawks -1 and Over 36.5 (Loss)
The Forty-Niners did not hold up their end of the bargain, and they finished the game with just 3 points. Colin Kaepernick's QBR was 9.0. Single digits! Obviously we should have just bet the Seattle spread because they covered the -7 easily.
Colin Kaepernick To Score A Touchdown (Loss)
Just a quick reminder that the prop could have been "Colin Kaepernick's Team To Score A Touchdown" and it still would have been a loss.
Jimmy Graham To Score A Touchdown (Loss)
I maintain that this was a good value bet at +120, but Seattle's two touchdowns went to Marshawn Lynch and Tyler Lockett. Graham was targeted 5 times and caught 2 passes for 31 yards.
Fuck me!
Thursday night: 0-3
Thursday Nights: 12-14-2
Monday Nights: 17-20
Showing posts with label thursday night football. Show all posts
Showing posts with label thursday night football. Show all posts
Monday, October 26, 2015
Thursday, October 22, 2015
Thursday Night Football: Seahawks @ 49ers
It seems like it was so long ago that a Seahawks-Niners game could be happening two weeks before the Super Bowl. Then Harbaugh went back to college and the Seahawks had to do the Chicago Blackhawks salary cap shed/reload move and they've started two seasons in a row poorly.
So here they are, both at 2-4 and both having showed flashes of the solid teams they've been in the recent past.
I could see tonight going a LOT of ways, but I'm going to throw out a few lines to try to build on our season record (17-20 on Monday nights and 12-11-2 on Thursday nights).
So here they are, both at 2-4 and both having showed flashes of the solid teams they've been in the recent past.
I could see tonight going a LOT of ways, but I'm going to throw out a few lines to try to build on our season record (17-20 on Monday nights and 12-11-2 on Thursday nights).
Tease Seahawks -1 and Over 36.5
Except for their Loud Fart Noise against Detroit when they scored just 13 and their loss at Green Bay when they scored 17, Seattle have scored 20+ against every team they've played so far. And they haven't been facing cupcake defenses: the Rams, Bengals, and Panthers have all been good this year.
On the other side, San Francisco has gotten creamed by the Steelers, Cardinals, and Packers. They blew out Minnesota to start the year and have played close games against the Giants (loss) and Ravens (win) the past two weeks.
That over/under line is set as if these two defenses were still as elite as they've been the past 5 years. But Seattle is allowing 21.3 points per game (25.6 if you factor out Chicago's 0). San Francisco is allowing 26.7 per game (31.4 if you factor out Minnesota's 3).
Ultimately I like Seattle because of the following lines: Wilson to throw over 1.5 touchdowns pays -135, while the same line for Kaepernick pays +140. Wilson to throw an interception pays -115, while Kaepernick's line is -155.
I think I like Seattle's spread even without the tease, and I feel the same way about the over. But teasers are the best and I could absolutely see a situation where Seattle wins 20-17.
To Score A Touchdown:
Jimmy Graham +120
Marshawn Lynch is the only player in the game who has prohibitive odds to score a touchdown. That kind of tells you what sort of game Vegas is expecting (the Total Touchdowns line is over/under 4.5). Jimmy Graham and Doug Baldwin lead Seattle with 2 receiving touchdowns each, and Lynch actually only has 1 rushing touchdown on the year so far. The Waterbirds defense has 2 touchdowns.
Colin Kaepernick +300
Carlos Hyde is questionable, which should increase Kap's load - and he already runs 6+ times per game. He's rushed for 228 yards and 1 touchdown, and he's about as likely as anyone on the Niners to convert in the red zone. (This paragraph was sponsored by the ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ emoji.)
Thursday, October 1, 2015
Thursday Night Football Preview: Ravens @ Steelers
Tonight's game has the potential to be even worse than last week's Redskins-Giants dumpster fire. The Ravens are 0-3, and that includes losses at Denver and Oakland and at home to Division-Leading Cincinnati. The Steelers lost to the Future Super Bowl Champion Patriots but then blew out the 49ers and squeaked by the Rams.
When I first saw the line at Ravens -3, I allllllllmost bet my entire life's savings on Pittsburgh +3. Then I remembered that Ben Roethlisberger is injured and Vegas thinks he's worth almost a touchdown (Pittsburgh was around -3 before the injury).
Here is how bad the game is going to be tonight: Mike Vick and Joe Flacco are both -200 to throw at least one interception. Vegas knows everything, and they think that each starting quarterback tonight has a 67% chance to throw a pick. I can understand that for 35 year old Vick, but what about 30 year old, $121 million Joe Flacco? He can't take care of the ball enough to win at home against a team who lost their quarterback last week?
(Sam Bradford plays for the Eagles, shut up Jay)
To the bet ticket:
Steelers +3 (-110)
Thought 1: It's the NFL. There is no way the Ravens are going to start their season 0-4 when they started the season +150 favorites to win the division. Especially against a team missing their star quarterback and replacing him with someone who won't allow Antonio Brown or Le'Veon Bell to be quite as effective as they normally are.
Thought 2: The Ravens have moved all the way out to +750 to win the AFC North, and Pittsburgh is holding steady at +260 even without Big Ben. They're playing with a steady backup quarterback who, despite his pedigree, completed 5 of his 6 passes last week and has rushed 5 times for -5 yards this year (more on that second stat later). Vegas knows, and this is a complete Pittsburgh line.
Teaser: Steelers +10 and Under 51 (-130)
It's been a while since we teased, but this is one that I really like. Fun fact: every game every played between these two teams has stayed under 51 points, and this will be another one that stays in the teens or low twenties.
Joe Flacco To Throw An Interception (-200)
Mike Vick To Throw An Interception (-200)
That's such a shitty payout, but it's Thursday so it's going to be a terrible game.
First Scoring Play: Field Goal or Safety (+110)
This is a crap shoot, but I'm loading up on props that would happen in a low-scoring, dogfight of a game.
To Score A Touchdown:
Le'Veon Bell (-160)
Antonio Brown (-140)
Steve Smith (-120)
Vegas has the line on "Total Touchdowns in the Game" set at 5, and the under only pays -150. So figure we probably have 4-5 touchdowns to go around. Stay away from Justin Forsett here: he hasn't scored a rushing touchdown this season, and Pittsburgh has not allowed a rushing touchdown yet either. I am, however, penciling in Flacco for at least one touchdown, so Smith seems like the safe bet because he's been targeted around a third of the time the Ravens pass the ball the past two weeks.
Justin Forsett Rushing Yards Over 49.5 (-115)
This line is deflated because he ran 10 times last week for 13 yards. Baltimore was trailing the entire game, so they abandoned the run and let Flacco unload for 49 pass attempts. In weeks one and two, Forsett ran for 43 and 68 yards. Pittsburgh has allowed Dion Lewis to run for 69 yards (nice), Kaepernick and Hyde to combine for 94 yards, and the Rams as a team ran for 71 yards. I really can't stress how bad the offense was on both sides of that Rams game.
Total Sacks In The Game Over 4.5 (-140)
In the first three games, Pittsburgh sacked the opposing QB twice, five times, and twice again. They've allowed three, zero, and five sacks. Those numbers for the Ravens: four, one, and two sacks. Two, zero, and zero sacks against. Why do I like the over here? Because it's going to be a gross game, of course.
When I first saw the line at Ravens -3, I allllllllmost bet my entire life's savings on Pittsburgh +3. Then I remembered that Ben Roethlisberger is injured and Vegas thinks he's worth almost a touchdown (Pittsburgh was around -3 before the injury).
Here is how bad the game is going to be tonight: Mike Vick and Joe Flacco are both -200 to throw at least one interception. Vegas knows everything, and they think that each starting quarterback tonight has a 67% chance to throw a pick. I can understand that for 35 year old Vick, but what about 30 year old, $121 million Joe Flacco? He can't take care of the ball enough to win at home against a team who lost their quarterback last week?
(Sam Bradford plays for the Eagles, shut up Jay)
To the bet ticket:
Steelers +3 (-110)
Thought 1: It's the NFL. There is no way the Ravens are going to start their season 0-4 when they started the season +150 favorites to win the division. Especially against a team missing their star quarterback and replacing him with someone who won't allow Antonio Brown or Le'Veon Bell to be quite as effective as they normally are.
Thought 2: The Ravens have moved all the way out to +750 to win the AFC North, and Pittsburgh is holding steady at +260 even without Big Ben. They're playing with a steady backup quarterback who, despite his pedigree, completed 5 of his 6 passes last week and has rushed 5 times for -5 yards this year (more on that second stat later). Vegas knows, and this is a complete Pittsburgh line.
Teaser: Steelers +10 and Under 51 (-130)
It's been a while since we teased, but this is one that I really like. Fun fact: every game every played between these two teams has stayed under 51 points, and this will be another one that stays in the teens or low twenties.
Joe Flacco To Throw An Interception (-200)
Mike Vick To Throw An Interception (-200)
That's such a shitty payout, but it's Thursday so it's going to be a terrible game.
First Scoring Play: Field Goal or Safety (+110)
This is a crap shoot, but I'm loading up on props that would happen in a low-scoring, dogfight of a game.
To Score A Touchdown:
Le'Veon Bell (-160)
Antonio Brown (-140)
Steve Smith (-120)
Vegas has the line on "Total Touchdowns in the Game" set at 5, and the under only pays -150. So figure we probably have 4-5 touchdowns to go around. Stay away from Justin Forsett here: he hasn't scored a rushing touchdown this season, and Pittsburgh has not allowed a rushing touchdown yet either. I am, however, penciling in Flacco for at least one touchdown, so Smith seems like the safe bet because he's been targeted around a third of the time the Ravens pass the ball the past two weeks.
Justin Forsett Rushing Yards Over 49.5 (-115)
This line is deflated because he ran 10 times last week for 13 yards. Baltimore was trailing the entire game, so they abandoned the run and let Flacco unload for 49 pass attempts. In weeks one and two, Forsett ran for 43 and 68 yards. Pittsburgh has allowed Dion Lewis to run for 69 yards (nice), Kaepernick and Hyde to combine for 94 yards, and the Rams as a team ran for 71 yards. I really can't stress how bad the offense was on both sides of that Rams game.
Total Sacks In The Game Over 4.5 (-140)
In the first three games, Pittsburgh sacked the opposing QB twice, five times, and twice again. They've allowed three, zero, and five sacks. Those numbers for the Ravens: four, one, and two sacks. Two, zero, and zero sacks against. Why do I like the over here? Because it's going to be a gross game, of course.
 |
| This game is going to be more gross that this professional athlete's chin |
Friday, September 25, 2015
Thursday Night Recap: Redskins @ Giants
Guys, I'm sorry. I forgot the Redskins stink. I'll keep this recap short.
Redskins +4 (Loss)
Redskins Moneyline (Loss)
The Giants pretty much dominated from start to finish, and even though they only won by 11 it was really never in doubt that the moneyline was a bust.
Alfred Morris Rushing Yards Over 61.5 (Loss)
Is 6 carries for 19 yards good? Christ, was this the Redskins or the Eagles?
Eli Manning To Throw An Interception (Loss)
Kirk Cousins To Throw An Interception (Win)
Kirk actually doubled up on INTs last night. Good for him, it's nice to see that kind of fire in a quarterback.
Jordan Reed Over 5 Receptions (Win)
Let's end on a high note. The lock of the night cleared his receptions number with ease (by one, he finished the game with 6 catches).
Fuck the NFC East.
Redskins +4 (Loss)
Redskins Moneyline (Loss)
The Giants pretty much dominated from start to finish, and even though they only won by 11 it was really never in doubt that the moneyline was a bust.
Alfred Morris Rushing Yards Over 61.5 (Loss)
Is 6 carries for 19 yards good? Christ, was this the Redskins or the Eagles?
Eli Manning To Throw An Interception (Loss)
Kirk Cousins To Throw An Interception (Win)
Kirk actually doubled up on INTs last night. Good for him, it's nice to see that kind of fire in a quarterback.
Jordan Reed Over 5 Receptions (Win)
Let's end on a high note. The lock of the night cleared his receptions number with ease (by one, he finished the game with 6 catches).
Fuck the NFC East.
Thursday, September 24, 2015
Thursday Night Preview: Redskins @ Giants
I really enjoy when there is only one football game on at a time, the whole world is watching it, and we can pay really close attention to everything that is going on in the game.
Don't get me wrong, I love Saturdays and Sundays too, but there's something extra special for me about going super in-depth into stats and history and projections for one specific game. We went 3-7 in week one's Monday game because I like the Eagles too much, 4-4-1 in week two's Thursday game, and 4-2 in week two's Monday game. That adds up to (calculator) 11-13-2 so far for the season, which isn't that bad when you consider I've been listening to the guys on 97.5 talk about how fucking good the Birds were going to be this year for six months.
Tonight, that game is Redskins @ Giants. I almost don't even want to write the rest of this post. This might be the least-watched Thursday night game all season. Who else is worse than this? Maybe Colts-Texans in a few weeks, but even there Andrew Luck might turn it around and JJ Watt is always ahuge douchebag big draw. Browns-Bengals is probably a contender, as are Titans-Jaguars, Bucs-Rams, and (gulp) Redskins-Eagles to close the TNF season.
Here's the crazy part about the NFL's influence in the good old US of A: I don't even like the sport of football that much, my team is looking like they won't contend, and I will probably still watch (or at least follow) all of those steaming piles of garbage that they put on TV on Thursday nights.
Plus, I have a mild gambling problem.
Bovada is down "for maintenance", so today's lines are from my side chick, Sportsbook.ag. [Update: I put the Bovada lines/odds in because Bovada is bae.]
Redskins summary: (Game 1) Lost at home to the Dolphins 17-10 but held Miami to 182 passing yards and 74 rushing yards. Kirk Cousins threw two interceptions, but the 'Skins ran for 161 yards as a team. (Game 2) Beat the Rams at home 24-10 and held St. Louis to 150 passing yards and 67 rushing yards. Another strong showing on the ground from Washington, who had Matt Jones and Alfred Morris combine for 182 yards and two touchdowns.
Giants summary: (Game 1) Lost on the road to the Cowboys 27-26 and only scored one offensive touchdown. Their other points came on a touchdown return on a Cole Beasley fumble and four field goals. New York's defense also picked off Tony Romo twice, but Romo outperformed Eli in QBR 85.9 to 45.4. (Game 2) Lost at home to the Falcons 24-20 and Eli was significantly outperformed by Matt Ryan, who beat him in QBR by a score of 90.8 to 50.5.
Redskins +3.5 (-110) and Redskins Moneyline (+160) [Skins +4 (-120) and +155]
Redskins Total Points Over 20.5 (-120) [Over 19.5 (-135)]
In both of their first two games, New York's opponent has rushed the ball fewer than 25 times for a total of no more than 80 yards. Washington has run the ball 37 times each game for 161 and 182 yards. Sportsbook has the line on Kirk Cousins' passing yards at 243.5. I am absolutely fucking not betting on Kirk Cousins, but it shows us that Vegas thinks Kirk is going to have success the same way Romo and Ryan did.
Alfred Morris Rushing Yards Over 61.5 (-115) [Over 57.5 (-125)]
We know Washington is going run the crap out of the ball with Morris and Matt Jones. The big question: does the split between those two look more like week one when Morris had 25 and Jones had 6, or week two when Morris had 18 and Jones had 19? I think it returns more to normal, and I think Vegas expects people to get too caught up in the "flash in the pan" just like we always do when someone has one good week.
Jordan Reed Over 5 Receptions (+100) [Over 5 (-115)]
He had 7 catches against Miami and 6 against St. Louis. Toss in that we can push if he gets to five, and the fact that New York allowed 4 receptions by Jacob Tamme (Atlanta), 8 by Jason Witten and 2 by Gavin Escobar (Dallas), and I feel very confident about this one.
Eli Manning To Throw An Interception (-140) [-140]
Kirk Cousins To Throw An Interception (-185) [-190]
Come on, it's Eli and Kirk Cousins.
Don't get me wrong, I love Saturdays and Sundays too, but there's something extra special for me about going super in-depth into stats and history and projections for one specific game. We went 3-7 in week one's Monday game because I like the Eagles too much, 4-4-1 in week two's Thursday game, and 4-2 in week two's Monday game. That adds up to (calculator) 11-13-2 so far for the season, which isn't that bad when you consider I've been listening to the guys on 97.5 talk about how fucking good the Birds were going to be this year for six months.
Tonight, that game is Redskins @ Giants. I almost don't even want to write the rest of this post. This might be the least-watched Thursday night game all season. Who else is worse than this? Maybe Colts-Texans in a few weeks, but even there Andrew Luck might turn it around and JJ Watt is always a
Here's the crazy part about the NFL's influence in the good old US of A: I don't even like the sport of football that much, my team is looking like they won't contend, and I will probably still watch (or at least follow) all of those steaming piles of garbage that they put on TV on Thursday nights.
Plus, I have a mild gambling problem.
Bovada is down "for maintenance", so today's lines are from my side chick, Sportsbook.ag. [Update: I put the Bovada lines/odds in because Bovada is bae.]
Redskins summary: (Game 1) Lost at home to the Dolphins 17-10 but held Miami to 182 passing yards and 74 rushing yards. Kirk Cousins threw two interceptions, but the 'Skins ran for 161 yards as a team. (Game 2) Beat the Rams at home 24-10 and held St. Louis to 150 passing yards and 67 rushing yards. Another strong showing on the ground from Washington, who had Matt Jones and Alfred Morris combine for 182 yards and two touchdowns.
Giants summary: (Game 1) Lost on the road to the Cowboys 27-26 and only scored one offensive touchdown. Their other points came on a touchdown return on a Cole Beasley fumble and four field goals. New York's defense also picked off Tony Romo twice, but Romo outperformed Eli in QBR 85.9 to 45.4. (Game 2) Lost at home to the Falcons 24-20 and Eli was significantly outperformed by Matt Ryan, who beat him in QBR by a score of 90.8 to 50.5.
Redskins +3.5 (-110) and Redskins Moneyline (+160) [Skins +4 (-120) and +155]
Redskins Total Points Over 20.5 (-120) [Over 19.5 (-135)]
In both of their first two games, New York's opponent has rushed the ball fewer than 25 times for a total of no more than 80 yards. Washington has run the ball 37 times each game for 161 and 182 yards. Sportsbook has the line on Kirk Cousins' passing yards at 243.5. I am absolutely fucking not betting on Kirk Cousins, but it shows us that Vegas thinks Kirk is going to have success the same way Romo and Ryan did.
Alfred Morris Rushing Yards Over 61.5 (-115) [Over 57.5 (-125)]
We know Washington is going run the crap out of the ball with Morris and Matt Jones. The big question: does the split between those two look more like week one when Morris had 25 and Jones had 6, or week two when Morris had 18 and Jones had 19? I think it returns more to normal, and I think Vegas expects people to get too caught up in the "flash in the pan" just like we always do when someone has one good week.
Jordan Reed Over 5 Receptions (+100) [Over 5 (-115)]
He had 7 catches against Miami and 6 against St. Louis. Toss in that we can push if he gets to five, and the fact that New York allowed 4 receptions by Jacob Tamme (Atlanta), 8 by Jason Witten and 2 by Gavin Escobar (Dallas), and I feel very confident about this one.
Eli Manning To Throw An Interception (-140) [-140]
Kirk Cousins To Throw An Interception (-185) [-190]
Come on, it's Eli and Kirk Cousins.
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