I'm going to be honest with you guys. I kind of mailed it in yesterday. One of the drawbacks of trying to blog about player props two nights a week from your desk at work is that you are doing it from your desk at work. Boss over shoulder, phone ringing, meetings with HR telling me to stop using the computer for personal use, the distractions are endless.
And yesterday I basically picked the line, the over, and the "To Score A Touchdown" props for seven players. And I got killed, final score Pittsburgh 24, San Diego 20:
Chargers -4 (Loss)
They let Phil Rivers throw the ball 48 times and he was only able to orchestrate 2 touchdown drives. Late game heroics from Bell aside, Rivers needed to put up more than 20 points. And he did not.
Over 46 (Loss)
See above.
Le'Veon Bell (Win)
San Diego had a 3 point lead at the end so it wasn't going to be a cover anyway, but Bell running it in as time expired for the win (from the Wildcat, no less) was a real kick in the dick. We didn't cover, we missed the over by 2 points, and the touchdown payout here was -175.
DeAngelo Williams (Loss)
Hey Jay, you idiot! There's a reason he was +450 to score a goddamn touchdown last night!
Antonio Brown (Loss)
Darrius Heyward-Bey (Loss)
Mike Vick only completed 13 passes, and 3 of them went to Bell. The Steelers' leading receiver last night was Markus Wheaton, who had the lone touchdown despite catching just one pass.
Melvin Gordon (Loss)
Melvin led the team in rushing attempts and was second in receptions but couldn't get into the end zone. Typical move from a guy named Melvin, and I should have known better.
Keenan Allen (Loss)
This one stings.
Antonio Gates (Win)
Let's end on a high note! (Puts bag on head)
Last night: 2-7
Thursday nights: 12-11-2
Monday nights: 13-17
Showing posts with label steelers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label steelers. Show all posts
Tuesday, October 13, 2015
Monday, October 12, 2015
Monday Night Football Preview: Steelers @ Chargers
We split our college picks from Friday's post. It was really nice to actually win a bet, because it had been like a week since we saw black. We followed it up with a solid NFL Sunday where we hit on the Eagles, Cardinals, Patriots and a Bills/Falcons teaser.
Do you smell that? It's momentum! We're rolling! Let's go to Steelers-Chargers tonight:
Game Lines: Chargers -4, Over/Under 46, Total Touchdowns Over/Under 5.5
The Chargers want to pass the ball, and they do so more than anyone in the league except the Patriots. The Steelers want to run the ball, but they are in the middle of the pack in terms of rush yards per game (Note: things done changed since Le'Veon Bell came back from his martyrdom and Ben Roethlisberger got hurt). Pittsburgh has a pretty much average pass defense. San Diego has a bad (but not quite atrocious) run defense. Pittsburgh is near the top of the league in points against (18.8). San Diego is near the bottom (27.5).
The Chargers are favored here because, in today's NFL, passing is more important than rushing. Phil Rivers is better than Michael Vick, and that means more than Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown being better than anyone on the Chargers.
Chargers -4 (-105)
Over 46 (-115)
I like San Diego tonight in a shootout and I like the over. I'm not going to bet the total touchdowns prop, but I always think it's interesting to see how many TDs are going to be split between the skill players. Under 5.5 pays -145, so the line is really more like Over/Under 5 touchdowns.
Here's who I think is getting those five touchdowns:
Le'Veon Bell (-175)
There is never any value in betting the star running back, but it's free money.
DeAngelo Williams (+450)
The value comes in the form of Bell's backup, who has scored 3 touchdowns this year that all came against San Francisco before Bell came back. Because you can run against the Chargers, it's not unreasonable to think that someone other than Bell gets in the end zone.
Antonio Brown (Even)
Duh.
Darrius Heyward-Bey (+200)
DHB has turned into a sneaky good red zone target. He scored touchdowns against San Francisco and Baltimore.
Melvin Gordon (Even)
He has 53.3% of the team's carries this year, and he's averaging 4.1 yards per carry. He has 4 runs of 20+ yards. Somehow he's been held to zero touchdowns, and I think that's gotta change sometime.
Keenan Allen (-115)
He is Rivers' favorite target and he has scored 3 touchdowns in the past 2 weeks.
Antonio Gates (+125)
Gates is back! He's fresh off the steroids, so I almost don't want to bet on him to score because he's probably all flabby now. But it's Antonio Gates and I'm sure Phil will be happy to have him back in the red zone.
Do you smell that? It's momentum! We're rolling! Let's go to Steelers-Chargers tonight:
Game Lines: Chargers -4, Over/Under 46, Total Touchdowns Over/Under 5.5
The Chargers want to pass the ball, and they do so more than anyone in the league except the Patriots. The Steelers want to run the ball, but they are in the middle of the pack in terms of rush yards per game (Note: things done changed since Le'Veon Bell came back from his martyrdom and Ben Roethlisberger got hurt). Pittsburgh has a pretty much average pass defense. San Diego has a bad (but not quite atrocious) run defense. Pittsburgh is near the top of the league in points against (18.8). San Diego is near the bottom (27.5).
The Chargers are favored here because, in today's NFL, passing is more important than rushing. Phil Rivers is better than Michael Vick, and that means more than Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown being better than anyone on the Chargers.
Chargers -4 (-105)
Over 46 (-115)
I like San Diego tonight in a shootout and I like the over. I'm not going to bet the total touchdowns prop, but I always think it's interesting to see how many TDs are going to be split between the skill players. Under 5.5 pays -145, so the line is really more like Over/Under 5 touchdowns.
Here's who I think is getting those five touchdowns:
Le'Veon Bell (-175)
There is never any value in betting the star running back, but it's free money.
DeAngelo Williams (+450)
The value comes in the form of Bell's backup, who has scored 3 touchdowns this year that all came against San Francisco before Bell came back. Because you can run against the Chargers, it's not unreasonable to think that someone other than Bell gets in the end zone.
Antonio Brown (Even)
Duh.
Darrius Heyward-Bey (+200)
DHB has turned into a sneaky good red zone target. He scored touchdowns against San Francisco and Baltimore.
Melvin Gordon (Even)
He has 53.3% of the team's carries this year, and he's averaging 4.1 yards per carry. He has 4 runs of 20+ yards. Somehow he's been held to zero touchdowns, and I think that's gotta change sometime.
Keenan Allen (-115)
He is Rivers' favorite target and he has scored 3 touchdowns in the past 2 weeks.
Antonio Gates (+125)
Gates is back! He's fresh off the steroids, so I almost don't want to bet on him to score because he's probably all flabby now. But it's Antonio Gates and I'm sure Phil will be happy to have him back in the red zone.
Friday, October 2, 2015
Thursday Night Recap: Ravens @ Steelers
We expected a gross, AFC North-style game last night, and boy did we get it. Both teams ran the ball more often than they threw it, which is almost unheard of in the modern NFL.
But as far as our ticket from last night goes, that was alright with me.
Steelers +3 (Push)
Teaser: Steelers +10 and Under 51 (Win)
These should have both been wins, but Pittsburgh sort of blew it at the end of the game. Here's some hard-hitting football analysis: when you are leading 20-7 halfway through the third quarter, you should win the game.
First Scoring Play: Field Goal or Safety (Win)
On a completely random bet like this, you just have to get lucky.
Joe Flacco To Throw An Interception (Win)
Mike Vick To Throw An Interception (Loss)
Take that, racists!
Le'Veon Bell To Score A Touchdown (Win)
Antonio Brown To Score A Touchdown (Loss)
Steve Smith To Score A Touchdown (Loss)
I was expecting 4-5 touchdowns to go around, and I expected these three (or at least two of them) to be the recipients. Bell got his, and he got 129 yards rushing and 21 yards receiving as well. Brown was targeted on about a third of Vick's 26 pass attempts, but he only caught 5 passes. Smith only caught 4 passes, as Flacco spread the ball around to 9 different receivers.
Justin Forsett Rushing Yards Over 49.5 (Win)
I don't know if I've ever seen any player in any sport cover their total three times over. Forsett went for 150 yards last night. So that was pretty fucking sweet.
Total Sacks In The Game Over 4.5 (Win)
The Ravens had 4 sacks and the Steelers had 5. This was, as advertised, a gross game. But how can you be mad about it when you load up on props that pay you for watching a gross game?
Last night: 6-3-1
Thursday nights: 12-11-2
Monday nights: 11-10
And I'll say it again, fuck the NFC East.
But as far as our ticket from last night goes, that was alright with me.
Steelers +3 (Push)
Teaser: Steelers +10 and Under 51 (Win)
These should have both been wins, but Pittsburgh sort of blew it at the end of the game. Here's some hard-hitting football analysis: when you are leading 20-7 halfway through the third quarter, you should win the game.
First Scoring Play: Field Goal or Safety (Win)
Joe Flacco To Throw An Interception (Win)
Mike Vick To Throw An Interception (Loss)
Take that, racists!
Le'Veon Bell To Score A Touchdown (Win)
Antonio Brown To Score A Touchdown (Loss)
Steve Smith To Score A Touchdown (Loss)
I was expecting 4-5 touchdowns to go around, and I expected these three (or at least two of them) to be the recipients. Bell got his, and he got 129 yards rushing and 21 yards receiving as well. Brown was targeted on about a third of Vick's 26 pass attempts, but he only caught 5 passes. Smith only caught 4 passes, as Flacco spread the ball around to 9 different receivers.
Justin Forsett Rushing Yards Over 49.5 (Win)
I don't know if I've ever seen any player in any sport cover their total three times over. Forsett went for 150 yards last night. So that was pretty fucking sweet.
Total Sacks In The Game Over 4.5 (Win)
The Ravens had 4 sacks and the Steelers had 5. This was, as advertised, a gross game. But how can you be mad about it when you load up on props that pay you for watching a gross game?
Last night: 6-3-1
Thursday nights: 12-11-2
Monday nights: 11-10
And I'll say it again, fuck the NFC East.
Thursday, October 1, 2015
Thursday Night Football Preview: Ravens @ Steelers
Tonight's game has the potential to be even worse than last week's Redskins-Giants dumpster fire. The Ravens are 0-3, and that includes losses at Denver and Oakland and at home to Division-Leading Cincinnati. The Steelers lost to the Future Super Bowl Champion Patriots but then blew out the 49ers and squeaked by the Rams.
When I first saw the line at Ravens -3, I allllllllmost bet my entire life's savings on Pittsburgh +3. Then I remembered that Ben Roethlisberger is injured and Vegas thinks he's worth almost a touchdown (Pittsburgh was around -3 before the injury).
Here is how bad the game is going to be tonight: Mike Vick and Joe Flacco are both -200 to throw at least one interception. Vegas knows everything, and they think that each starting quarterback tonight has a 67% chance to throw a pick. I can understand that for 35 year old Vick, but what about 30 year old, $121 million Joe Flacco? He can't take care of the ball enough to win at home against a team who lost their quarterback last week?
(Sam Bradford plays for the Eagles, shut up Jay)
To the bet ticket:
Steelers +3 (-110)
Thought 1: It's the NFL. There is no way the Ravens are going to start their season 0-4 when they started the season +150 favorites to win the division. Especially against a team missing their star quarterback and replacing him with someone who won't allow Antonio Brown or Le'Veon Bell to be quite as effective as they normally are.
Thought 2: The Ravens have moved all the way out to +750 to win the AFC North, and Pittsburgh is holding steady at +260 even without Big Ben. They're playing with a steady backup quarterback who, despite his pedigree, completed 5 of his 6 passes last week and has rushed 5 times for -5 yards this year (more on that second stat later). Vegas knows, and this is a complete Pittsburgh line.
Teaser: Steelers +10 and Under 51 (-130)
It's been a while since we teased, but this is one that I really like. Fun fact: every game every played between these two teams has stayed under 51 points, and this will be another one that stays in the teens or low twenties.
Joe Flacco To Throw An Interception (-200)
Mike Vick To Throw An Interception (-200)
That's such a shitty payout, but it's Thursday so it's going to be a terrible game.
First Scoring Play: Field Goal or Safety (+110)
This is a crap shoot, but I'm loading up on props that would happen in a low-scoring, dogfight of a game.
To Score A Touchdown:
Le'Veon Bell (-160)
Antonio Brown (-140)
Steve Smith (-120)
Vegas has the line on "Total Touchdowns in the Game" set at 5, and the under only pays -150. So figure we probably have 4-5 touchdowns to go around. Stay away from Justin Forsett here: he hasn't scored a rushing touchdown this season, and Pittsburgh has not allowed a rushing touchdown yet either. I am, however, penciling in Flacco for at least one touchdown, so Smith seems like the safe bet because he's been targeted around a third of the time the Ravens pass the ball the past two weeks.
Justin Forsett Rushing Yards Over 49.5 (-115)
This line is deflated because he ran 10 times last week for 13 yards. Baltimore was trailing the entire game, so they abandoned the run and let Flacco unload for 49 pass attempts. In weeks one and two, Forsett ran for 43 and 68 yards. Pittsburgh has allowed Dion Lewis to run for 69 yards (nice), Kaepernick and Hyde to combine for 94 yards, and the Rams as a team ran for 71 yards. I really can't stress how bad the offense was on both sides of that Rams game.
Total Sacks In The Game Over 4.5 (-140)
In the first three games, Pittsburgh sacked the opposing QB twice, five times, and twice again. They've allowed three, zero, and five sacks. Those numbers for the Ravens: four, one, and two sacks. Two, zero, and zero sacks against. Why do I like the over here? Because it's going to be a gross game, of course.
When I first saw the line at Ravens -3, I allllllllmost bet my entire life's savings on Pittsburgh +3. Then I remembered that Ben Roethlisberger is injured and Vegas thinks he's worth almost a touchdown (Pittsburgh was around -3 before the injury).
Here is how bad the game is going to be tonight: Mike Vick and Joe Flacco are both -200 to throw at least one interception. Vegas knows everything, and they think that each starting quarterback tonight has a 67% chance to throw a pick. I can understand that for 35 year old Vick, but what about 30 year old, $121 million Joe Flacco? He can't take care of the ball enough to win at home against a team who lost their quarterback last week?
(Sam Bradford plays for the Eagles, shut up Jay)
To the bet ticket:
Steelers +3 (-110)
Thought 1: It's the NFL. There is no way the Ravens are going to start their season 0-4 when they started the season +150 favorites to win the division. Especially against a team missing their star quarterback and replacing him with someone who won't allow Antonio Brown or Le'Veon Bell to be quite as effective as they normally are.
Thought 2: The Ravens have moved all the way out to +750 to win the AFC North, and Pittsburgh is holding steady at +260 even without Big Ben. They're playing with a steady backup quarterback who, despite his pedigree, completed 5 of his 6 passes last week and has rushed 5 times for -5 yards this year (more on that second stat later). Vegas knows, and this is a complete Pittsburgh line.
Teaser: Steelers +10 and Under 51 (-130)
It's been a while since we teased, but this is one that I really like. Fun fact: every game every played between these two teams has stayed under 51 points, and this will be another one that stays in the teens or low twenties.
Joe Flacco To Throw An Interception (-200)
Mike Vick To Throw An Interception (-200)
That's such a shitty payout, but it's Thursday so it's going to be a terrible game.
First Scoring Play: Field Goal or Safety (+110)
This is a crap shoot, but I'm loading up on props that would happen in a low-scoring, dogfight of a game.
To Score A Touchdown:
Le'Veon Bell (-160)
Antonio Brown (-140)
Steve Smith (-120)
Vegas has the line on "Total Touchdowns in the Game" set at 5, and the under only pays -150. So figure we probably have 4-5 touchdowns to go around. Stay away from Justin Forsett here: he hasn't scored a rushing touchdown this season, and Pittsburgh has not allowed a rushing touchdown yet either. I am, however, penciling in Flacco for at least one touchdown, so Smith seems like the safe bet because he's been targeted around a third of the time the Ravens pass the ball the past two weeks.
Justin Forsett Rushing Yards Over 49.5 (-115)
This line is deflated because he ran 10 times last week for 13 yards. Baltimore was trailing the entire game, so they abandoned the run and let Flacco unload for 49 pass attempts. In weeks one and two, Forsett ran for 43 and 68 yards. Pittsburgh has allowed Dion Lewis to run for 69 yards (nice), Kaepernick and Hyde to combine for 94 yards, and the Rams as a team ran for 71 yards. I really can't stress how bad the offense was on both sides of that Rams game.
Total Sacks In The Game Over 4.5 (-140)
In the first three games, Pittsburgh sacked the opposing QB twice, five times, and twice again. They've allowed three, zero, and five sacks. Those numbers for the Ravens: four, one, and two sacks. Two, zero, and zero sacks against. Why do I like the over here? Because it's going to be a gross game, of course.
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| This game is going to be more gross that this professional athlete's chin |
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