Monday, October 19, 2015

Monday Night Football Preview: Giants @ Eagles

If you follow these Thursday Night/Monday Night previews and recaps, you know I've had a bad stretch of picking NFC East games. It's part of the reason I'm just 12-11-2 on Thursday nights and 13-17 on Monday nights. (Another part of it is I got absolutely creamed with last week's Steelers-Chargers game.)

But we're turning the ship around tonight, just like Chip and Sam and the Birds are turning it around. The march for the playoffs started last week against the lowly Saints, and it continues tonight against a decidedly mediocre Giants team.

The G-men are allowing opposing quarterbacks to average 304.2 passing yards per game, 1.6 touchdowns per game, 1.0 interceptions per game. That group includes Tony Romo and Matt Ryan, but it also includes Kurt Cousins, Tyrod Taylor Who Stinks Now, and Colin Kaepernick Who May Or May Not Stink Now.

Opposing running backs, meanwhile, have been held to just 80.6 rushing yards per game and 0.6 rushing touchdowns. That sentence makes me really regret taking DeMarco Murray on FanDuel this week - perhaps I should have researched a little bit more and coughed up the extra $400 for Devonta Freeman.

Opposing "feature backs" have done these things:

  • Joseph Randle: 16 carries, 65 yards, 0 touchdowns, 1 fumble
  • Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman Combined: 21 carries, 57 yards, 2 touchdowns
  • Matt Jones and Alfred Morris Combined: 17 carries, 57 yards, 0 touchdowns, 1 fumble
  • Karlos Williams: 18 carries, 40 yards, 0 touchdowns
  • Carlos Hyde: 21 carries, 93 yards, 1 touchdowns
For reference, Philly's backs combine to average 24.6 carries per game and 1.0 touchdowns per game. I don't think anybody will deny that DeMarco Murray, Ryan Mathews, and Darren Sproles are as giid or better than any group that NY has faced so far. I'm expecting a decent day on the ground, but the focus here should really be getting Bradford over 300 yards and at least a pair of touchdowns. 

Eagles -4 (-110)
Duh. That one should have been clear from the start. Bovada has the line on the Eagles at 27.5 and the Giants at 22.5. I think the Birds go over and the Giants stay under, but because I think it may end up being a shootout I will just take the plain old spread. 

Darren Sproles to Score a Touchdown (+150)
It's Villanova Graduate Brian Westbrook night at the Linc, as he's getting inducted into the Eagles Hall of Fame before the game. VGBW famously ran a kick back for a touchdown to cripple the Giants, and then Non-Villanova Graduate DeSean Jackson repeated the feat a few years later. This is destiny. Fate. Money in the bank. 

Sam Bradford Passing Yards Over 275.5 (-125)
As discussed above, the Giants are definitely susceptible to a quarterback torch job. Bradford is averaging just 245.8 yards per game, and the line being 30 yards above that is a testament to how bad New York has really been. Against the two teams he's played in the bottom half of the league in defense, #SamIAm went for 336 yards (Atlanta) and 333 yards (New Orleans). 

Sam Bradford Touchdown Passes Over 1.5 (-180)
See above. 

Eli Manning To Throw An Interception (-175)
Guys, it's Eli Manning. This is going to be a fun bet. 

Shane Vereen Receiving Yards Over 39.5 (-115)
Credit where it's due, New York has a solid passing attack. Even if Odell Beckham and Victor Cruz are out, and if Reuben Randle is also out with them, Eli is going to be chucking the ball around. I think Vereen is going to be a guy that benefits, because he can line up in any offensive position on the field. 

Rashad Jennings Over 2 Receptions (-115)
This is a mind blowing line. We know Eli is short on passing options. Jennings has caught 11 passes in the last 4 games. And we have the chance to push if he only catches 2? It's the lock of the week!

Time for me to get back to work. I'll see you guys out there tonight. #FlyEaglesFly

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