Week 7 College Football Preview: MSU @ Michigan

(In case you missed them, I broke down the Florida State-Louisville game here and the rest of the noon games here.)

Now it's time for the two biggest games of the day. Two of the three best teams in the Big Ten on one TV, and two of the five best teams in the SEC on the other. (For the record, the rest of that list is Ohio State, LSU, and then maybe Florida and Ole Miss.)

Part 1: Michigan State @ Michigan (-7), 3:30, ESPN

After their opening week loss at Utah, Michigan has won 5 games by a combined score of 160-14.

Go re-read that sentence. The Wolverines lost away from home to the best team in the Pac-12 by one touchdown. Since then, they have absolutely creamed everyone in their path. BYU and Northwestern were both ranked when Michigan beat them (31-0 and 38-0, respectfully).

The Wolverine defense is out here lambasting fools. They:

• are averaging 6.3 points against per game for the season (best in the nation)
• are second in the nation in pass yards allowed per game and third in rush yards allowed per game
• held Utah to 24 points (40.3 points per game in other games)
• held Oregon State to 79 passing yards, 59 rushing yards, and 7 points (they stink though but still)
• held UNLV to 7 points, and then UNLV put up 80 the next week (against Idaho State but still)
• shut out BYU (33.2 points per game in other games)
• held Maryland to 76 passing yards, 29 rushing yards, and 0 points (Terps kind of stink)
• shut out Northwestern and held them to 38 rushing yards (Cats averaged 248.8 rushing yards and 25.4 points in their other games)

The closest Michigan State has gotten to an elite defense are Air Force (20th in yards against, 43rd in points against), Rutgers (86th and 60th), and Central Michigan (38th and 64th). Sparty put up 35 on Air Force, 30 on Central Michigan, and 31 on Rutgers. But there really is a huge gap between the *Elite* defenses and those three. Michigan isn't going to shut out MSU, but they'll hold them under 20. 

The question then becomes whether or not Michigan can score the 32 points per game they have been averaging since the loss to Utah. Here's what MSU's defense has been able to do:

• Western Michigan scored 24 points and threw 2 interceptions. In their two other losses (Georgia Southern and Ohio State), they averaged just 14.5 points. In WMU's two wins (Murray State and Central Michigan), they averaged 46.5 points. That WMU team is so all over the map I don't even know what to make of them
• Oregon scored 28 points. Besides their Utah game (when they only scored 20), the Ducks are averaging 50.3 points per game. That MSU-Oregon-Utah-Michigan connection has to mean something, and here I think it means the game should stay in the 20s?
• MSU held Air Force at 21 points, below their average of 29.8 for the rest of their games
• Central Michigan scored just 10 points, well below their average of 25.8 in the rest of their games
• Purdue stinks, but even at 1-5 they've still averaged 25.8 points per game on the season, and 21 of them came against MSU
• Rutgers has been all over the place offensively. Here are their point totals (in increasing order): 3-24-27-34-63. That 24 was last week against MSU

I think this is going to be very close to the spread. I like Michigan to win, and I think they do it by more than a touchdown. If you have a tease bag started already (like maybe with FSU?), throw the Wolverines in. If you're betting games on their own, I'm in on Michigan -7. 

Saturday College Hoops Viewing/Betting Guide, Part I

Last Saturday did not go well. I can't stress that enough. I only wrote like 4 lines for each game, and I really didn't do enough research. Or maybe some days are just destined to be horrible and that's just how the cookie crumbles.

The ESPN slate shows 137 total Divison 1 basketball games are on the table for tomorrow. That includes 3 in the ACC, 3 in the American, 5 in the Big XII, 2 in the Big East, 5 in the Big Ten, 5 in the Pac-12, and 7 in the SEC (which, as of last night's Arkansas-Alabama game, is my new favorite conference to watch).

I don't think it would be healthy to bet on all 30 of those big-conference games (that's definitely approaching problem territory). But I do think we can all agree that it'd be cool to have a nice 12-noon-to-2-am agenda of basketball games.

Like last week, the lines are not up as I'm first going through these games. I'll give you some early thoughts and hopefully there will be some lines we like tomorrow morning.

In chronological order, here is part one (afternoon games):

#1 Kentucky @ South Carolina, 12pm, ESPN

The Wildcats have really only played 3 road games this year. They won 58-50 at Louisville, which is clearly a much better team than SC. Kentucky won 70-64 in 2 overtimes at Texas A&M, which was a very flukey game. UK shot just 28.1% from the field (including just 25% on two-point shots) and the turnover battle was an even 12 to 12. Generally, the Cats are shooting a lot better than that and cramming the passing lanes enough to generate turnovers.

As for the Cocks, they have only played 8 games against top-100 RPI teams. They beat Iowa State (15), blew out Oklahoma State (27), squeaked by Alabama (53), and blew out Clemson (96). They also lost by 4 points three times in games against Baylor (20), Tennessee (44), and Florida (79), and got crushed by Ole Miss (65).

The SEC can be really tough to bet on for two reasons (1) every team is going to throw everything they have at Kentucky to try to take shots at the king (2) it seems like every non-UK team is capable of winning/losing every game against each other.

The non-elite teams that have been able to keep it close against Kentucky (Columbia, A&M, and Vanderbilt) have done so by keeping it close in three areas: shooting percentage, rebounds, and turnovers. For what it's worth, Columbia doesn't totally fit that mold because the stats make it seem like they should have gotten killed. Somehow, UK only beat 'em by 10 because the Cats shot 2-17 from three. That's what I'd consider flukey.

So for A&M and Vandy, the key was keeping their shooting percentage close to Kentucky's, keeping the offensive and total rebounds close to Kentucky's, and keeping the turnover battle close. If the Cocks can't do those three things, they will lose by 20. If they can, they might only lose by 8 or 10 (Jesus, this team is good).

So the question is, "Can the Cocks get the job done?" They are 121st in the country with a 44.0% field goal percentage, and 8th in the country with a 36.9% opponents' field goal percentage. That looks promising, and not too surprising for a Frank Martin team. But in their last 6 games (5 SEC games and their win over Iowa State), they have averaged 41.3% shooting and 42.7% against. That's inconclusive.

Moving on, let's look at rebounding. For the season, the Cocks are 35th in offensive rebounding rate (Kentucky is 192nd in defensive rebounding) and 70th in defensive rebounding rate (Kentucky is 1st in offensive rebounding rate). They have a very narrow advantage on the boards in their last six games, averaging 11.0 to 9.5 offensive rebounds and 33.0 to 31.8 total rebounds. Kentucky, in their five conference games, have averaged 39.2 rebounds for and 32.4 rebounds against - although a lot of that is their domination of Mizzou on the boards.

I can't really tell if the rebound totals are going to be close enough to SC to have a chance, so let's look at the third component: turnovers. Kentucky normally wins that battle, but it's going to be crucial for SC to keep it within 2-3 (or maybe even win) if they have a chance to keep it close. UK is 17th in the nation in assist/turnover ratio (1.398) and 50th in turnovers per possession (16.9%). SC is 127th in assist/turnover ratio (1.022) and - gulp - 235th in turnovers per possession (19.9%).

Obviously, this depends on where the spread opens, but I'd take Kentucky to win by double digits. If it gets above 12 or 13, I would be hesitant because they're on the road.

(Kentucky -13 is going right into the tease bag)

#11 Kansas @ #17 Texas, 2pm, CBS

I hate that Kansas is ranked this low, but it's probably pretty accurate. They lost on the road to Temple and Iowa State. They beat Baylor and Georgetown on the road, and beat Tennessee, Michigan State, Florida, Utah, UNLV, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, and Oklahoma at home.

Texas, in the other corner, lost to Stanford, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State before their two most recent wins - a big win at home over West Virginia and a big win on the road at TCU.

I expect Texas to be favored in this game. I also expect them to win because they have four big men that average at least 5 points and 5 rebounds, whereas Kansas relies on Perry Ellis and Cliff Alexander down low (forward Jamari Traylor has 8 points and 4 rebounds total in his last 3 games).

You would therefore expect Kansas to have an advantage in the backcourt, but both teams have 4 guards averaging 4.5 points or more. However, Kansas guards Frank Mason and Kelly Oubre are probably going to be the two best guards on the court.

I think this is going to be a great game because both teams have deep rosters with a lot of talent. We'll have to see where the line opens.

(Line is Texas -3, hate it)

TCU @ #18 West Virginia, 2pm, ESPNU

Both teams are coming off embarrassing losses to Texas (TCU by 18 at home, WVU by 27 at Texas). I think the Mountaineers are going to win this game BIG. They've had all week to stew over the loss, and TCU just isn't good enough to handle that on the road.

(WVU -9 is great tease bag material)

Florida State @ North Carolina, 2pm, ESPN

UNC is going to be a huge favorite, that's for sure. And they may very well cover - FSU has lost some big games this year:

• Providence won 80-54 (neutral court)
• Notre Dame won 83-63 (@ Notre Dame)
• Syracuse won 70-57 (@ Syracuse)
• Pitt won 73-64 (@ Pitt)
• NC State won 72-63 (@ FSU)

And here is how the Tar Heels have done against "teams that are as shitty as Florida State (RPI 135)":

• Beat Ohio State (RPI 54) 82-74 on a neutral court
• Beat UCLA (RPI 73) 78-56 on a neutral court
• Beat Florida (RPI 79) 75-64 on a neutral court
• Beat NC Central (RPI 83) 76-60 at home
• Beat Clemson (RPI 96) 74-50 at Clemson
• Beat William & Mary (RPI 119) 86-64 at home
• Beat Wake Forest (RPI 138) 87-71 at Wake Forest

This is going to be ugly. I'd love to be able to take the Heels by less than ten. We will see where it opens, but I'm in for anything up to about 12 points. 

(UNC -15.5 is too many points)

UCLA @ Oregon, 4pm, CBS

Some bullets for you:

• UCLA scores 72.4 points per game (75th-most in the country)
• Oregon scores 77.6 points per game (22nd-most)
• UCLA allows 69.5 points per game (91st-most in the country)
• Oregon allows 70.7 points per game (67th-most)
• UCLA is 11th in the country with 61.1 field goal attempts per game
• Oregon is 7th in the country with 62.0 field goal attempts per game

I'll take the over, thank you very much. I honestly don't know how high it would have to be for me to not take it. 158? 160? Even higher? 

Michigan State @ Nebraska, 4pm, ESPN

It's a team that plays good defense against a team that plays good offense (and can also play some defense). I have no clue who Vegas thinks is going to win, but I think we could be in for a classic Big Ten game where the total stays under 100 and everyone watching the game is miserably bored. I'm leaning toward teasing MSU and the under, but we will see. 

(MSU -3 is up now, we will have to see about the o/u)

Part two (night games) coming later. 

Wednesday Night College Hoops Preview

The 3 games featuring ranked teams tonight feature a 3 touchdown spread, a Conference USA matchup, and a 10:30pm tip-off. No dice.

But there are two 7pm games games featuring conferences that matter and teams that are decent (and we can all be in bed by 9:30 because working is the worst). So we're going to look into them and hopefully find some easy money.

Michigan State @ Iowa, 7pm, ESPN
Line: Iowa -2.5

What MSU (10-5, 1-1 Big Ten) does:

• 5th in the nation in assists per game & 11th in assist/turnover ratio
• 27th in the nation in rebounds per game, made up of a 34.6% offensive rebounding percentage (40th) and a 78.3% defensive rebounding percentage (9th)
• 49th in the country at 74.1 points per game, made up of 53.1% from 2s (121st), 31.9% from 3s (85th), and just 15% from free throws (345th/351)
• 49th in the country at 60.1 points allowed per game, made up of 51.5% from 2s (196th), 25.6% from 3s (94th), and 22.9% from free throws (264th)
• 11th in the country at 40.1% from three point range
• In road games: lost 79-78 (OT) at Notre Dame, won 64-59 at Navy

Right off the bat, we can see three big things. They have an efficient offense that relies on a lot of three pointers and not a lot of free throws. They also give up quite a few free throws, but are otherwise pretty staunch on defense. Third, they are a great rebounding team. 

What Iowa (11-4, 2-0 Big Ten) does:

• 32nd in the nation is rebounds per game, made up of 34.1% offensive rebounding percentage (51st) and 72.3% defensive rebounding percentage (118th)
• 117th in the country at 70.7 points scored per game, made up of 49.6% from 2s (212th), 25.8% from 3s (228th), and 24/6% from free throws (32nd)
• 39th in the country at 59.3 points against per game, made up of 53.5% from 2s (264th), 29.0% from 3s (205th), and 17.4% from free throws (53rd)
• 78th in the country with 22.4 free throw attempts per game, and they make 77.7% of them (4th in the country)
• In big home games: beat Nebraska 70-59, lost to Iowa State 90-75

Matching this up with the MSU stats, we see that Iowa should have no trouble getting to the free throw line, but might have trouble scoring otherwise. They also appear to be in for a difficult night trying to stop MSU from the field. I'd call it about a tie on the boards, which is surprising because Iowa's four best players are two forwards and two centers (MSU has no centers on the roster and their tallest player is listed at 6'9"). 

The pick depends on how you feel about two pieces: (1) is MSU going to shoot anywhere close to their usual numbers? (2) does the home crowd matter enough? I would answer Yes-No and take Sparty +2.5, but it's not quite the lock I was looking for tonight.

LSU @ Missouri, 7pm, ESPN2
Line: LSU -3

What LSU (11-2, 0-0 SEC) does:

• 14th in the country with 40.9 rebounds per game
• 17th in the country with 16.8 assists per game
• 40th in the country with 75.6 points per game
• 10th in the country with 28.4 rebounds per game allowed
• 12th in the country with 6.0 blocks per game
• In road games: won 79-70 @ UAB, won 74-73 @ West Virginia
• 142nd-toughest schedule (3rd-easiest in the SEC)

What Mizzou (6-7, 0-0 SEC) does:

• Stink
• 240th in the country in points per game at 65.4
• 205th in the country in points allowed per game at 67.2
• Granted, they have the 30th most difficult schedule in the country (3rd toughest in the SEC)
• 242nd in the country with 33.5 rebounds per game
• 310th in the country with 10.2 assists per game

I almost don't even want to go any deeper. Just hammer LSU and count your money. But I will, because I want to make sure we're really going to call this a lock. And because life in the cube is a dull, dreary place.

How LSU scores:

• 75.6 points per game is the 34th-most in the nation
• 63.5% of their points come from 2-pointers, 4th best in the nation behind Presbyterian, South Florida, and Cal State Northridge
• Just 19.2% of their points come from 3-pointers, 16th-fewest in the country
• Just 17.3% of their points come from free throws, 39th-fewest in the country
• 0.291 free throw attempts per field goal attempt is 323rd in the country

How you can score on Mizzou:

• 67.2 points per game is the 205th-best in the nation
• 47.4% of points come from 2-pointers, 66th-fewest in the country
• 27.6% come from 3-pointers, 157th-fewest in the country
• 24.9% come from free throws, 43rd-most in the country

How Mizzou scores:

• 65.4 points per game is the 240th-best in the nation
• 49% of points come from 2-pointers, 229th-most in the nation
• 29% come from 3-pointers, 154th-most in the nation
• 22% come from free throws, 122nd-most in the nation
• 0.412 free throw attempts per field goal attempt is 89th in the country

How you can score on LSU:

• 65.6 points per game is the 172nd-best in the nation
• 57.7% of points come from 2-pointers, 25th-most in the nation
• 26.4% come from 3-pointers, 121st-fewest in the country
• 15.9% come from free throws, 23rd-fewest in the country

Rebounding:

• LSU grabs 33.9% of offensive rebounds (53rd)
• LSU grabs 72.0% of defensive rebounds (125th)
• Mizzou grabs 27.1% of offensive rebounds (224th)
• Mizzou grabs 70.2% of defensive rebounds (194th)

Players for Missouri that are not playing:

• Junior guard Deuce Bello is out. He averages 3 points and 1 rebound in about 11 minutes per game
• Freshman guard Montaque Gill-Caesar is questionable with back spasms. Bello isn't a big loss, but MGC averages 27 minutes, 11.5 points, 4 rebounds, and a steal
• That's almost a third of the minutes that Mizzou's guards play

This is such a steal my head is going to explode. LSU -3 is the unquestionable play of the night. Bet your Valentine's Day fund and treat your girl twice as nice next month.