Week 7 College Football Preview: The Noon Games

(If you missed the Louisville-Florida State preview, it's here - but I like FSU -7.)

Here are the rest of the notable 12:00 games:

West Virginia @ Baylor (-21.5)
WVU has been in a freefall, losing by 20 at Oklahoma and by 7 at home to Oklahoma State. Baylor scores 60+ points per game. I like Baylor, I wish it was inside three touchdowns, but I don't want to tease with this because it's either going to be a 30 point blowout or a single-digit nailbiter. It's tough to argue with Baylor's offense though, so I like the Bears -21.5.

Purdue @ Wisconsin (-23.5)
When you Google both of these teams, the first ESPN result is the link to the basketball page. That's a fun fact, and here's another: except for their 3 point loss at Michigan State, Purdue lost has lost their games against Big 5 opponents by 27 (Virginia Tech) and 28 (Minnesota) - and both of those games were at home. I'm almost wondering if the Boilermakers are a frisky road team because they have a home crowd that doesn't care? Couple that with Wisconsin's 1-1 B1G record (lost by 4 at home to Iowa and won by 2 at Nebraska), and I'm in on Purdue +23.5.

Ole Miss (-11) @ Memphis
Memphis is 5-0 against a bunch of crap teams. Ole Miss is 5-1 (2-1 in the SEC). In Ole Miss' only loss, Florida held them to 1 passing touchdown, 259 passing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns, and just 69 rushing yards (nice). For the season, Chad Kelly averages 310.3 yards and 2.3 touchdowns per game (with almost 1 interception per game). Their ground game averages 188.3 yards and 2.8 touchdowns per game. The issue with trying to analyze Ole Miss is they combined for 201 points (25 offensive touchdowns) against UT-Martin, Fresno State, and New Mexico State. Memphis probably won't win, but I'd like to mix this into the teaser bag to get it under a touchdown.

Iowa (-2) @ Northwestern
The friskiest team in the Big Ten getting points at home? I'm in!

Texas Tech (-32.5) @ Kansas
Kansas is another team that has the basketball page show up before the football page, and wow is it easy to see why. 0-5. Lost to South Dakota State. Lost by 32 to Memphis at home. Lost by 13 to Rutgers and by 25 to Iowa State. Coming off a 59 point loss at home to Baylor in which they only managed to score a touchdown on their first drive and go scoreless on their next thirteen. Texas Tech has been held under 50 twice this year (both times they scored 35 points) - at Arkansas, which they won, and at home to Baylor, which they lost because Baylor is Baylor. The Red Raiders beat Iowa State 66-31 last week, so transitive property tells us they should beat Kansas by 50. One of our first rules was Thirty Points Is A Lot, but I'm in on Texas Tech -32.5.

Saturday College Hoops Viewing/Betting Guide, Part I

Last Saturday did not go well. I can't stress that enough. I only wrote like 4 lines for each game, and I really didn't do enough research. Or maybe some days are just destined to be horrible and that's just how the cookie crumbles.

The ESPN slate shows 137 total Divison 1 basketball games are on the table for tomorrow. That includes 3 in the ACC, 3 in the American, 5 in the Big XII, 2 in the Big East, 5 in the Big Ten, 5 in the Pac-12, and 7 in the SEC (which, as of last night's Arkansas-Alabama game, is my new favorite conference to watch).

I don't think it would be healthy to bet on all 30 of those big-conference games (that's definitely approaching problem territory). But I do think we can all agree that it'd be cool to have a nice 12-noon-to-2-am agenda of basketball games.

Like last week, the lines are not up as I'm first going through these games. I'll give you some early thoughts and hopefully there will be some lines we like tomorrow morning.

In chronological order, here is part one (afternoon games):

#1 Kentucky @ South Carolina, 12pm, ESPN

The Wildcats have really only played 3 road games this year. They won 58-50 at Louisville, which is clearly a much better team than SC. Kentucky won 70-64 in 2 overtimes at Texas A&M, which was a very flukey game. UK shot just 28.1% from the field (including just 25% on two-point shots) and the turnover battle was an even 12 to 12. Generally, the Cats are shooting a lot better than that and cramming the passing lanes enough to generate turnovers.

As for the Cocks, they have only played 8 games against top-100 RPI teams. They beat Iowa State (15), blew out Oklahoma State (27), squeaked by Alabama (53), and blew out Clemson (96). They also lost by 4 points three times in games against Baylor (20), Tennessee (44), and Florida (79), and got crushed by Ole Miss (65).

The SEC can be really tough to bet on for two reasons (1) every team is going to throw everything they have at Kentucky to try to take shots at the king (2) it seems like every non-UK team is capable of winning/losing every game against each other.

The non-elite teams that have been able to keep it close against Kentucky (Columbia, A&M, and Vanderbilt) have done so by keeping it close in three areas: shooting percentage, rebounds, and turnovers. For what it's worth, Columbia doesn't totally fit that mold because the stats make it seem like they should have gotten killed. Somehow, UK only beat 'em by 10 because the Cats shot 2-17 from three. That's what I'd consider flukey.

So for A&M and Vandy, the key was keeping their shooting percentage close to Kentucky's, keeping the offensive and total rebounds close to Kentucky's, and keeping the turnover battle close. If the Cocks can't do those three things, they will lose by 20. If they can, they might only lose by 8 or 10 (Jesus, this team is good).

So the question is, "Can the Cocks get the job done?" They are 121st in the country with a 44.0% field goal percentage, and 8th in the country with a 36.9% opponents' field goal percentage. That looks promising, and not too surprising for a Frank Martin team. But in their last 6 games (5 SEC games and their win over Iowa State), they have averaged 41.3% shooting and 42.7% against. That's inconclusive.

Moving on, let's look at rebounding. For the season, the Cocks are 35th in offensive rebounding rate (Kentucky is 192nd in defensive rebounding) and 70th in defensive rebounding rate (Kentucky is 1st in offensive rebounding rate). They have a very narrow advantage on the boards in their last six games, averaging 11.0 to 9.5 offensive rebounds and 33.0 to 31.8 total rebounds. Kentucky, in their five conference games, have averaged 39.2 rebounds for and 32.4 rebounds against - although a lot of that is their domination of Mizzou on the boards.

I can't really tell if the rebound totals are going to be close enough to SC to have a chance, so let's look at the third component: turnovers. Kentucky normally wins that battle, but it's going to be crucial for SC to keep it within 2-3 (or maybe even win) if they have a chance to keep it close. UK is 17th in the nation in assist/turnover ratio (1.398) and 50th in turnovers per possession (16.9%). SC is 127th in assist/turnover ratio (1.022) and - gulp - 235th in turnovers per possession (19.9%).

Obviously, this depends on where the spread opens, but I'd take Kentucky to win by double digits. If it gets above 12 or 13, I would be hesitant because they're on the road.

(Kentucky -13 is going right into the tease bag)

#11 Kansas @ #17 Texas, 2pm, CBS

I hate that Kansas is ranked this low, but it's probably pretty accurate. They lost on the road to Temple and Iowa State. They beat Baylor and Georgetown on the road, and beat Tennessee, Michigan State, Florida, Utah, UNLV, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, and Oklahoma at home.

Texas, in the other corner, lost to Stanford, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State before their two most recent wins - a big win at home over West Virginia and a big win on the road at TCU.

I expect Texas to be favored in this game. I also expect them to win because they have four big men that average at least 5 points and 5 rebounds, whereas Kansas relies on Perry Ellis and Cliff Alexander down low (forward Jamari Traylor has 8 points and 4 rebounds total in his last 3 games).

You would therefore expect Kansas to have an advantage in the backcourt, but both teams have 4 guards averaging 4.5 points or more. However, Kansas guards Frank Mason and Kelly Oubre are probably going to be the two best guards on the court.

I think this is going to be a great game because both teams have deep rosters with a lot of talent. We'll have to see where the line opens.

(Line is Texas -3, hate it)

TCU @ #18 West Virginia, 2pm, ESPNU

Both teams are coming off embarrassing losses to Texas (TCU by 18 at home, WVU by 27 at Texas). I think the Mountaineers are going to win this game BIG. They've had all week to stew over the loss, and TCU just isn't good enough to handle that on the road.

(WVU -9 is great tease bag material)

Florida State @ North Carolina, 2pm, ESPN

UNC is going to be a huge favorite, that's for sure. And they may very well cover - FSU has lost some big games this year:

• Providence won 80-54 (neutral court)
• Notre Dame won 83-63 (@ Notre Dame)
• Syracuse won 70-57 (@ Syracuse)
• Pitt won 73-64 (@ Pitt)
• NC State won 72-63 (@ FSU)

And here is how the Tar Heels have done against "teams that are as shitty as Florida State (RPI 135)":

• Beat Ohio State (RPI 54) 82-74 on a neutral court
• Beat UCLA (RPI 73) 78-56 on a neutral court
• Beat Florida (RPI 79) 75-64 on a neutral court
• Beat NC Central (RPI 83) 76-60 at home
• Beat Clemson (RPI 96) 74-50 at Clemson
• Beat William & Mary (RPI 119) 86-64 at home
• Beat Wake Forest (RPI 138) 87-71 at Wake Forest

This is going to be ugly. I'd love to be able to take the Heels by less than ten. We will see where it opens, but I'm in for anything up to about 12 points. 

(UNC -15.5 is too many points)

UCLA @ Oregon, 4pm, CBS

Some bullets for you:

• UCLA scores 72.4 points per game (75th-most in the country)
• Oregon scores 77.6 points per game (22nd-most)
• UCLA allows 69.5 points per game (91st-most in the country)
• Oregon allows 70.7 points per game (67th-most)
• UCLA is 11th in the country with 61.1 field goal attempts per game
• Oregon is 7th in the country with 62.0 field goal attempts per game

I'll take the over, thank you very much. I honestly don't know how high it would have to be for me to not take it. 158? 160? Even higher? 

Michigan State @ Nebraska, 4pm, ESPN

It's a team that plays good defense against a team that plays good offense (and can also play some defense). I have no clue who Vegas thinks is going to win, but I think we could be in for a classic Big Ten game where the total stays under 100 and everyone watching the game is miserably bored. I'm leaning toward teasing MSU and the under, but we will see. 

(MSU -3 is up now, we will have to see about the o/u)

Part two (night games) coming later. 

Tuesday Night College Hoops Preview

The biggest college hoops games of the night - which both happen to be Big XII showdowns - are also the only games that should be single-digit affairs. Yes, Kentucky/Duke/Louisville/Virginia could all blow it, but each of those teams is favored by at least two touchdowns.

The Big XII is a really solid conference this year, and four of its top five teams play each other tonight. So we're going a little west and a lot south to preview Cowboys-Jayhawks and Sooners-Mountaineers, and hopefully we'll all get rich.

#24 Oklahoma State @ #9 Kansas, 7pm, ESPN2
Line: Kansas -7.5

Oklahoma State (12-3, 2-1 Big XII , 4th in the conference)

• 71.7 points per game (94th)
• 58.6 points against per game (27th)
• 36.3 rebounds per game (115th)
• 72nd toughest schedule (6th in the conference)

Kansas (13-2, 2-0 Big XII, 1st in the conference)

• 71.2 points per game (105th)
• 63.1 points against per game (118th)
• 38.7 rebounds per game (41st)
• 1st toughest schedule (1st in the conference)

Where OK State gets its points:

• 46.5% from twos (285th-highest in the country)
• 31.1% from threes (99th)
• 22.3% from free throws (104th)
• Shooting 51.8% on twos (41st), 34.0% on threes (160th), 70.3% on free throws (133rd)

How teams score their points against Kansas:

• 51.3% from twos (193rd-lowest)
• 31.0% from threes (278th)
• 17.6% from free throws (55th)
• Opponent shooting percentage of 44.5% on twos (83rd-lowest), 33.8% on threes (182nd), 64.7% on free throws (46th)

If the Cowboys are going to pull off this upset, they are going to do it from deep. They attempt about 21.5 threes per game, and it seems like this is a game where one of two things will happen; either Kansas will stifle them and it won't be a close game, or the 'Boys will shoot the lights out and keep it real close. 

Where KU gets its points:

• 49.6% from twos (215th-highest)
• 27.5% from threes (194th)
• 22.8% from free throws (82nd)
• Shooting 45.3% on twos (258th), 39.5% on threes (20th), 71.1% on free throws (100th)

I think Kansas' shooting percentage on twos would be 10 points higher if Perry Ellis didn't take ten 18-foot jump shots per game, but they shoot impressively well from deep on their 16.5 triples attempted per game. 

How teams score their points against Oklahoma State:

• 49.6% from twos (123rd-lowest)
• 29.1% from threes (214th)
• 21.2% from free throws (202nd)
• Opponents shooting 42.0% on twos (23rd), 31.4% on threes (87th), 66.8% on free throws (99th)

Important games to note for OK State:

• Lost 75-49 @ South Carolina (12/6) - shot 24.6% from the field and 5-24 from deep
• Won 73-55 @ Memphis (12/13) - shot 47.6% from the field, 5-13 from three, 28-36 from the foul line
• Lost 73-64 at home to Maryland (12/21) - shot 8-27 from three and 4-9 from the free throw line
• Won 74-72 (OT) @ Mizzou (12/30)
• Won 61-47 at home against Kansas State (1/3) - shot 48.9% from the field, 8-21 from three, and Kansas State kind of sucks this year
• Lost 63-61 @ Iowa State (1/6)
• Won 69-58 at home against Texas (1/10) -  let me put on my hot take hat and tell you that Texas is super overrated this year

Important games to note for Kansas:

• Beat Michigan State 61-56 (11/30)
• Beat Florida 71-65 (12/5)
• Beat Utah 63-60 (12/13)
• Lost 77-52 @ Temple (12/22) - Temple shot 58.3% from the field and help Kansas to 32.1%, and Temple's three-headed-guard-monster went for 54 points and 9 assists 
• Beat UNLV 76-61 (1/4) - shot 44.8% from the field and 42.1% from three, and held UNLV to to 30.4% from three while out-rebounding them 45-31
• Won 56-55 @ Baylor 
• Crushed Texas Tech 86-54 (1/10)

Kansas is rolling right now. Mason-Selden-Oubre-Ellis-Traylor-Alexander might be the best top 6 in the Big XII, and their only real weakness is the lack of an elite center/post player/defensive stopper. Against Oklahoma State (who lists all of their forwards as F-C instead of just F), it shouldn't be a big issue - OSU's leading rebounder/blocker is 6'8" Michael Cobbins. For size comparison purposes: Cobbins weighs as much as the 6'5" Wayne Selden. 

Pick: Kansas -7.5. Would I prefer this teased down 4 points? Absolutely. Do I trust this Kansas team enough to take care of business at home? Absolutely-er. 

#18 Oklahoma @ #16 West Virginia, 7pm, ESPNNews
Line: WVU -2.5

Oklahoma (11-4, 2-1 Big XII, 5th in the conference)

• 72.9 points per game (64th)
• 59.4 points against per game (36th)
• 40.3 rebounds per game (17th)
• 44th toughest schedule (3rd in the conference)

West Virginia (14-2, 2-1 Big XII, 3rd in the conference)

• 78.4 points per game (21st)
• 62.0 points against per game (86th)
• 38.9 rebounds per game (38th)
• 56th toughest schedule (4th in the conference)

Who beat West Virginia:

• LSU 74, WVU 73 (12/4) - the Tigers shot 46.4% from the field, 8-15 from deep, and 14-18 from the free throw line. They held West Virginia to 34.3% from the field and just 5-17 on three pointers. The Tigers out-rebounded the 'Eers 44-35. LSU got the win despite losing the turnover battle 24-12.
• Iowa State 74, West Virginia 72 (1/10) - the Cyclones shot a neat 25-50 from the field. They were only 6-17 from the field, but they got to the line a LOT and finished 18-27 on free throws. WVU shot 32.4% from the field, 24.1% from three, and lost the turnover battle 18-9. It's really a credit to them that they found a way to win. They attempted 18 more field goals, and really this game was only close because they grabbed 18 offensive rebounds. 

Who beat Oklahoma:

• Creighton 65, Oklahoma 63 (11/19) - neither team played well
• Wisconsin 69, Oklahoma 56 (11/28) - Wisconsin is an elite team, or so we thought. Neither team shot exceptionally well, but Wisconsin won the turnover battle 21-11 and the assist battle 19-6. That's just one team being a head above the other. 
• Washington 69, Oklahoma 67 (12/20) - two evenly matched teams, Washington just shot the ball well enough to overcome their turnovers
• Kansas State 66, Oklahoma 63 (1/10) - I touched on KSU and how they stink earlier, but Oklahoma stunk more this game. They shot 40.4% from the field, 33.3% from three, 63.2% from the line, and lost the rebounds/assists/turnovers battles. Woof. 

At this point, I'm leaning towards WVU. I think they are underrated, and I think Oklahoma is properly rated in the late teens. I just want to confirm some stats to make sure this isn't a bonehead bet.

Oklahoma gets 53.9% of its points from two pointers, which is 98th-most in the country. That's the most heavily that OU relies on any area of the court (relative to other teams), and they shoot 49.3% on twos, which is a pretty pedestrian 119th in the country. 

West Virginia allows twos to make up only 48.6% of their opponents' points, which is 94th in the country. However, they allow their opponents to make 49.8% of twos, which is just 246th. 

On the other side of the ball, WVU also tends to lean pretty heavily on twos (55.2% of their points, 70th-most in the nation).  Similar to the Sooners, they shoot a less-than-stellar 48.0% from two (161st in the country). 

On defense, Oklahoma allows its opponents to score 54.5% of their points from two (76th-most in the country), but allows them to shoot just 40.6% (12th-lowest in the country). So figure that one out. 

Pick: I hate it. I hate this game and I hate betting it from either side. Stick with Kansas and save yourself the despair.