Weekend College Hoops Recap (and Monday Night Preview)

We got a little bit screwed by our teaser on Saturday. Kentucky would have covered, the UCLA/Oregon over would have just missed (but it hit the teased number), Arizona covered easy, and Stanford covered easy. We would have lost on West Virginia and Wisconsin (but hit on Frank Kaminsky's points).

Well, the way we allocated everything, we ended up basically breaking even for the day instead of going 4-2 or 4-3. Fucking tease life, man.

But we got right back on the tease horse yesterday and nailed a Kentucky-Louisville-Villanova teaser (none of which needed to be teased and we left a ton of money on the table but whatever).

There isn't a huge schedule of games for tonight, but there is one pretty intriguing ACC game.

Syracuse @ North Carolina, 7pm, ESPN
Line: UNC -10.5; Syracuse +480

I love the idea of the Syracuse zone (god damn, do I hate that defense) forcing an injury-ravaged UNC team into a low-scoring game. The Heels are down (either missing the game or playing hurt) guards Theo Pinson, Joel Barry, Stillman White and Luke Davis and forwards Sasha Seymour and Joel James. Guards Marcus Paige and Nate Britt and forward Brice Johnson also played through some pain last game.

In terms of minutes played, here are the players who are currently 100% healthy: small forward JP Tokoto, guard-forward Justin Jackson, forward Kennedy Meeks, forward Isaiah Hicks, and a bunch of guys who average less than 5 minutes per game.

Do we really expect Marcus Paige and his plant or fast shi'ite ish to be able to consistently break the vaunted Cuse press by himself? And his team is favored by ten points?

Syracuse has only lost two games by double digits all season: (1) against Cal (at MSG) in November, in which the Bears shot 48.1% from the field and 44.4% from three, held the Orange to 37.1% from the field, and out-assisted Cuse by a crazy 21-8 margin (2) against Clemson (at Clemson) about a week and a half ago, in which Clemson shot 45.1% from the field and 40% from three, out-rebounded Cuse 40-30, and held the Orange to just 2-15 from three.

Against good teams (which is kind of a subjective term but roll with it), UNC has covered ten points four times and lost outright twice. The wins:

• 90-72 over Davidson in November (neutral court): there isn't really any area that I can see UNC dominated from the box score, but shooting 47.8% and holding your inferior opponent to 33.8% is a recipe for a big win every time
• 78-56 over UCLA in November (neutral court): brutal night for the Bruins, as they shot 1-14 on threes, got out-assisted 15-7, and lost the turnover battle 23-11
• 75-64 over Florida in November (neutral court): it's tough to win when you shoot 32.8% from the field and 22.2% from three, as the Gators did here. That becomes even tougher when you allow your opponent to shoot 45.1% and 50%. Heels probably should have won by even more
• 74-50 over Clemson in January (at Clemson): another case of absolute embarrassment, the Heels held Clemson to 28.3% from the field, 6-26 from three, out-rebounded the Tigers 49-30 and out-assisted them 20-8. Woof

But what about the games UNC has lost? Not counting their loss to Kentucky, there are only three: 

• 74-66 to Butler (in the Bahamas): as a product of their 57-40 rebounding advantage, Butler attempted 15 more shots (12 more threes). The Bulldogs also held UNC to 4-16 from three, and those three stats basically decided the game
• 60-55 to Iowa (at home): the Heels, who usually shoot pretty well from the field, shot just 27.9% from the field and 17.4% from three. The game was tight on the boards (46-42 in favor of UNC) and in terms of assists (9-8 in favor of Iowa). A single-digit assist total is a huge red flag for UNC, as their huge wins have come when they get into the high teens or twenties
• 71-70 to Notre Dame (at home): another 4-16 showing from three point range, but the Heels almost overcame it by out-rebounding ND 43-26. They did not, however, and they missed 13 of their final 14 shots to blow their comeback

So we know Cuse is going to have to hit the boards, force turnovers, and make shots so they can get into their zone/press. Here's how they do in those areas:

• Offensive rebounding rate: 33.9% (48th)
• Defensive rebounding rate: 72.4% (115th)
• Opponent assist/turnover ratio: 0.951 (170th)
• Opponent turnovers per possession: 20.8% (74th)
• Field goal percentage: 43.8% (134th)
• Effective field goal percentage: 48.0% (209th)
• Free throw rate: 25.6% (202nd)

Rebounding should be alright, as should the turnover/assist battle. I just don't know if Syracuse can score enough to keep it close. In 7 conference games, big man Rakeem Christmas is averaging 20 points and 8.9 rebounds. Throw in games against other power conference teams, and he's averaging 19.5 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 57.8% shooting in 11 games. 

UNC is on a 4-game winning streak against non-elite ACC teams. From a player prop perspective, they've been giving up more points to guards, so I don't think I will like a point total for Christmas. That said, Cuse has a pair of guards that might be primed for big nights - Trevor Cooney is averaging 15.7 points in conference play (19.2 if you throw out his duds against Ga Tech and Clemon), and Michael Gbinije is averaging 12.7. In their recent run against Syracuse-caliber teams, UNC has given up the following stat lines to opposing guards:

• 20 points on 7-17 shooting (5-14 from three) in 28 minutes (Turner, NCST)
• 19 points on 4-13 shooting (1-6 from three) in 38 minutes (Lacey, NCST)
• 11 points on 4-9 shooting (3-6 from three) in 20 minutes (Smith, Va Tech)
• 9 points on 3-9 shooting (3-7 from three) in 27 minutes (Johnston, Va Tech)
• 20 points on 6-14 shooting (1-3 from three) in 31 minutes (Miller-McIntyre, Wake)
• 35 points on 14-26 shooting (5-11 from three) in 38 minutes (Rathan-Mayes, FSU)

I don't even know if Bovada is going to do player props (nothing is posted now, just before 2pm), but I think I'd take Cooney over about 16-17 and Gbinije over 12-13. We will have to see where the lines are set, if at all - but UNC has not been containing guards.

As for the game itself, I had a gut feeling that Cuse was the play, but it could really go either way. They haven't moved from the +10.5 position that I saw this morning, and I'm really tempted to take it. I think Christmas is too good down low, and UNC doesn't have enough depth to contain both Cooney and Gbinije and also break the Cuse press. 

I'm in for one each on Cuse, Cooney, and Gbinije. I think 2/3 are hitting for sure. 

Saturday College Hoops Viewing/Betting Guide, Part I

Last Saturday did not go well. I can't stress that enough. I only wrote like 4 lines for each game, and I really didn't do enough research. Or maybe some days are just destined to be horrible and that's just how the cookie crumbles.

The ESPN slate shows 137 total Divison 1 basketball games are on the table for tomorrow. That includes 3 in the ACC, 3 in the American, 5 in the Big XII, 2 in the Big East, 5 in the Big Ten, 5 in the Pac-12, and 7 in the SEC (which, as of last night's Arkansas-Alabama game, is my new favorite conference to watch).

I don't think it would be healthy to bet on all 30 of those big-conference games (that's definitely approaching problem territory). But I do think we can all agree that it'd be cool to have a nice 12-noon-to-2-am agenda of basketball games.

Like last week, the lines are not up as I'm first going through these games. I'll give you some early thoughts and hopefully there will be some lines we like tomorrow morning.

In chronological order, here is part one (afternoon games):

#1 Kentucky @ South Carolina, 12pm, ESPN

The Wildcats have really only played 3 road games this year. They won 58-50 at Louisville, which is clearly a much better team than SC. Kentucky won 70-64 in 2 overtimes at Texas A&M, which was a very flukey game. UK shot just 28.1% from the field (including just 25% on two-point shots) and the turnover battle was an even 12 to 12. Generally, the Cats are shooting a lot better than that and cramming the passing lanes enough to generate turnovers.

As for the Cocks, they have only played 8 games against top-100 RPI teams. They beat Iowa State (15), blew out Oklahoma State (27), squeaked by Alabama (53), and blew out Clemson (96). They also lost by 4 points three times in games against Baylor (20), Tennessee (44), and Florida (79), and got crushed by Ole Miss (65).

The SEC can be really tough to bet on for two reasons (1) every team is going to throw everything they have at Kentucky to try to take shots at the king (2) it seems like every non-UK team is capable of winning/losing every game against each other.

The non-elite teams that have been able to keep it close against Kentucky (Columbia, A&M, and Vanderbilt) have done so by keeping it close in three areas: shooting percentage, rebounds, and turnovers. For what it's worth, Columbia doesn't totally fit that mold because the stats make it seem like they should have gotten killed. Somehow, UK only beat 'em by 10 because the Cats shot 2-17 from three. That's what I'd consider flukey.

So for A&M and Vandy, the key was keeping their shooting percentage close to Kentucky's, keeping the offensive and total rebounds close to Kentucky's, and keeping the turnover battle close. If the Cocks can't do those three things, they will lose by 20. If they can, they might only lose by 8 or 10 (Jesus, this team is good).

So the question is, "Can the Cocks get the job done?" They are 121st in the country with a 44.0% field goal percentage, and 8th in the country with a 36.9% opponents' field goal percentage. That looks promising, and not too surprising for a Frank Martin team. But in their last 6 games (5 SEC games and their win over Iowa State), they have averaged 41.3% shooting and 42.7% against. That's inconclusive.

Moving on, let's look at rebounding. For the season, the Cocks are 35th in offensive rebounding rate (Kentucky is 192nd in defensive rebounding) and 70th in defensive rebounding rate (Kentucky is 1st in offensive rebounding rate). They have a very narrow advantage on the boards in their last six games, averaging 11.0 to 9.5 offensive rebounds and 33.0 to 31.8 total rebounds. Kentucky, in their five conference games, have averaged 39.2 rebounds for and 32.4 rebounds against - although a lot of that is their domination of Mizzou on the boards.

I can't really tell if the rebound totals are going to be close enough to SC to have a chance, so let's look at the third component: turnovers. Kentucky normally wins that battle, but it's going to be crucial for SC to keep it within 2-3 (or maybe even win) if they have a chance to keep it close. UK is 17th in the nation in assist/turnover ratio (1.398) and 50th in turnovers per possession (16.9%). SC is 127th in assist/turnover ratio (1.022) and - gulp - 235th in turnovers per possession (19.9%).

Obviously, this depends on where the spread opens, but I'd take Kentucky to win by double digits. If it gets above 12 or 13, I would be hesitant because they're on the road.

(Kentucky -13 is going right into the tease bag)

#11 Kansas @ #17 Texas, 2pm, CBS

I hate that Kansas is ranked this low, but it's probably pretty accurate. They lost on the road to Temple and Iowa State. They beat Baylor and Georgetown on the road, and beat Tennessee, Michigan State, Florida, Utah, UNLV, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, and Oklahoma at home.

Texas, in the other corner, lost to Stanford, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State before their two most recent wins - a big win at home over West Virginia and a big win on the road at TCU.

I expect Texas to be favored in this game. I also expect them to win because they have four big men that average at least 5 points and 5 rebounds, whereas Kansas relies on Perry Ellis and Cliff Alexander down low (forward Jamari Traylor has 8 points and 4 rebounds total in his last 3 games).

You would therefore expect Kansas to have an advantage in the backcourt, but both teams have 4 guards averaging 4.5 points or more. However, Kansas guards Frank Mason and Kelly Oubre are probably going to be the two best guards on the court.

I think this is going to be a great game because both teams have deep rosters with a lot of talent. We'll have to see where the line opens.

(Line is Texas -3, hate it)

TCU @ #18 West Virginia, 2pm, ESPNU

Both teams are coming off embarrassing losses to Texas (TCU by 18 at home, WVU by 27 at Texas). I think the Mountaineers are going to win this game BIG. They've had all week to stew over the loss, and TCU just isn't good enough to handle that on the road.

(WVU -9 is great tease bag material)

Florida State @ North Carolina, 2pm, ESPN

UNC is going to be a huge favorite, that's for sure. And they may very well cover - FSU has lost some big games this year:

• Providence won 80-54 (neutral court)
• Notre Dame won 83-63 (@ Notre Dame)
• Syracuse won 70-57 (@ Syracuse)
• Pitt won 73-64 (@ Pitt)
• NC State won 72-63 (@ FSU)

And here is how the Tar Heels have done against "teams that are as shitty as Florida State (RPI 135)":

• Beat Ohio State (RPI 54) 82-74 on a neutral court
• Beat UCLA (RPI 73) 78-56 on a neutral court
• Beat Florida (RPI 79) 75-64 on a neutral court
• Beat NC Central (RPI 83) 76-60 at home
• Beat Clemson (RPI 96) 74-50 at Clemson
• Beat William & Mary (RPI 119) 86-64 at home
• Beat Wake Forest (RPI 138) 87-71 at Wake Forest

This is going to be ugly. I'd love to be able to take the Heels by less than ten. We will see where it opens, but I'm in for anything up to about 12 points. 

(UNC -15.5 is too many points)

UCLA @ Oregon, 4pm, CBS

Some bullets for you:

• UCLA scores 72.4 points per game (75th-most in the country)
• Oregon scores 77.6 points per game (22nd-most)
• UCLA allows 69.5 points per game (91st-most in the country)
• Oregon allows 70.7 points per game (67th-most)
• UCLA is 11th in the country with 61.1 field goal attempts per game
• Oregon is 7th in the country with 62.0 field goal attempts per game

I'll take the over, thank you very much. I honestly don't know how high it would have to be for me to not take it. 158? 160? Even higher? 

Michigan State @ Nebraska, 4pm, ESPN

It's a team that plays good defense against a team that plays good offense (and can also play some defense). I have no clue who Vegas thinks is going to win, but I think we could be in for a classic Big Ten game where the total stays under 100 and everyone watching the game is miserably bored. I'm leaning toward teasing MSU and the under, but we will see. 

(MSU -3 is up now, we will have to see about the o/u)

Part two (night games) coming later.