Saturday College Hoops Viewing/Betting Guide, Part II

If you missed part one (with the afternoon games), scroll down or click here. 

Let's move on to the night games and keep this gravy train rolling.

Wisconsin @ Michigan, 7pm, ESPN

As for the actual game, I don't know. I expect Wisconsin to be heavily favored and to win by a bunch, but I don't know how much they'll end up actually winning by.

The real line to bet here is Frank Kaminsky's point total (or his point/rebound total). He averages 16.9 points and 8.2 rebounds for the season, but has bumped them up to 18.0 points and 8.8 rebounds in Big Ten play. That doesn't seem like too much of a bump, but stay with me.

Michigan's leading blocker (DJ Wilson, 0.6 blocks per game) has not played more than 1 minute since November. Their leading blocker that has played in this calendar year is is 6'7" guard Caris LeVert, with 0.4 blocks per game. Oh, by the way, he broke his foot and will be out for the season. Next up are 6'9" freshmen Mark Donnal and Ricky Doyle (seriously guys, be whiter) who each average 0.4 blocks per game.

 

On the glass, Michigan's leading rebounder is LeVert. Behind him is 6'0" guard Derrick Walton with 4.7 rebounds per game, 6'6" guard-forward Zak Irvin with 4.0, and 6'7" guard-forward Kameron Chatman. Doyle and Donnal are right behind with 2.9 and 2.6 rebounds respectively.

Are you getting my point? Kaminsky is going to go off. 20+ points and 10+ rebounds are both locks.

(Wisconsin -10 looks ripe, and we will see about Frank's points)

Auburn @ Alabama, 8:30pm, SEC Network

I hate this game because these two teams could play 10 times and each side would win 5, but it's obviously a huge rivalry game and Coleman Coliseum is going to be wild.

Alabama has played basically zero relevant home games. They have played teams that are either a lot better or a lot worse than Auburn (RPI 139), but here are how the Tide fared against teams that are close:

• Arizona State (RPI 137 but neutral court): Tide won 76-71
• South Florida (RPI 208): Tide won 82-71
• UCLA (RPI 64): Tide won 56-50
• North Florida (RPI 200): Tide won 76-61
• Texas A&M (RPI 42): Tide won 65-44

To their credit, the Tide have only lost games on the road (including to Iowa State on a neutral court) and a game against Kentucky. They looked really good against Arkansas, which cost us money, and I think they could win this game by a touchdown or more. 

Auburn, for their part, have won every home game except Mississippi State and lost every road game. Here are their away games, and keep in mind that Alabama is 51st in the RPI:

• at Florida (RPI 79), lost 75-55
• at Colorado (RPI 90), lost 90-59
• at Clemson (RPI 96), lost 72-61
• at Vanderbilt (RPI 99), lost 64-52
• at Texas Tech (RPI 188), lost 46-44

Notice a trend? They can't score away from home! They average 76.8 points at home and 54.2 on the road. The only thing that worries me about hammering Alabama is the potential that Auburn fans could have a good showing. But Alabama is strong at home and Auburn is putrid on the road, so I think we're going to Roll Tide. 

(Nevermind, Tide -11.5 is too many)

#7 Arizona @ Cal, 10:30pm, Pac-12 Network

We just saw the Zona Cats beat Stanford on the road, and I have very little doubt they will beat Cal too. The Golden Bears have won one game since December 20th, and have lost by an average of 16.2 points since that win. Couple that with the fact that Arizona has an average margin of victory of 13.2 in conference play, and it could be a rare situation where I actually like the home team. I'd love to see the spread stay around 10, but I could be persuaded to get up above a dozen or so. 

(Cats -13, boom tease bag)

Arizona State @ Stanford, Midnight, ESPNU

I'm going to be perfectly honest: there is a zero percent chance that we are still awake for this game. This is going to be a hopelessly late start where you either wake up to money in your pocket or you wake up in a bad mood and it ruins your whole day. 

Stanford should win this game. ASU is 1-3 on the road in the conference, 1-5 on the road overall, and 1-7 in all games away from home. Stanford's only home loss all year was 89-82 to Arizona this week, in which Arizona shot 55.6% from the field. 

The question becomes how many points Stanford will cover. They beat UConn (RPI 72) by 13, Washington (54) by 8 in overtime, Washington State (117) by 15, and Wofford (50) by 15. Arizona State, for reference, is 137. 

I'm hoping that their home loss to Arizona keeps this spread down to 7 or 8, but I'd still consider it up to about 10 points. 

(Stanford -6.5? In! In! Hammer it!) 

And, as always, if you want to throw 4 games in a teaser and hope for the best, that can really make for a fun Saturday. Today, that bag includes Kentucky early, WVU in the middle, and Arizona late. 

Saturday College Hoops Viewing/Betting Guide, Part I

Last Saturday did not go well. I can't stress that enough. I only wrote like 4 lines for each game, and I really didn't do enough research. Or maybe some days are just destined to be horrible and that's just how the cookie crumbles.

The ESPN slate shows 137 total Divison 1 basketball games are on the table for tomorrow. That includes 3 in the ACC, 3 in the American, 5 in the Big XII, 2 in the Big East, 5 in the Big Ten, 5 in the Pac-12, and 7 in the SEC (which, as of last night's Arkansas-Alabama game, is my new favorite conference to watch).

I don't think it would be healthy to bet on all 30 of those big-conference games (that's definitely approaching problem territory). But I do think we can all agree that it'd be cool to have a nice 12-noon-to-2-am agenda of basketball games.

Like last week, the lines are not up as I'm first going through these games. I'll give you some early thoughts and hopefully there will be some lines we like tomorrow morning.

In chronological order, here is part one (afternoon games):

#1 Kentucky @ South Carolina, 12pm, ESPN

The Wildcats have really only played 3 road games this year. They won 58-50 at Louisville, which is clearly a much better team than SC. Kentucky won 70-64 in 2 overtimes at Texas A&M, which was a very flukey game. UK shot just 28.1% from the field (including just 25% on two-point shots) and the turnover battle was an even 12 to 12. Generally, the Cats are shooting a lot better than that and cramming the passing lanes enough to generate turnovers.

As for the Cocks, they have only played 8 games against top-100 RPI teams. They beat Iowa State (15), blew out Oklahoma State (27), squeaked by Alabama (53), and blew out Clemson (96). They also lost by 4 points three times in games against Baylor (20), Tennessee (44), and Florida (79), and got crushed by Ole Miss (65).

The SEC can be really tough to bet on for two reasons (1) every team is going to throw everything they have at Kentucky to try to take shots at the king (2) it seems like every non-UK team is capable of winning/losing every game against each other.

The non-elite teams that have been able to keep it close against Kentucky (Columbia, A&M, and Vanderbilt) have done so by keeping it close in three areas: shooting percentage, rebounds, and turnovers. For what it's worth, Columbia doesn't totally fit that mold because the stats make it seem like they should have gotten killed. Somehow, UK only beat 'em by 10 because the Cats shot 2-17 from three. That's what I'd consider flukey.

So for A&M and Vandy, the key was keeping their shooting percentage close to Kentucky's, keeping the offensive and total rebounds close to Kentucky's, and keeping the turnover battle close. If the Cocks can't do those three things, they will lose by 20. If they can, they might only lose by 8 or 10 (Jesus, this team is good).

So the question is, "Can the Cocks get the job done?" They are 121st in the country with a 44.0% field goal percentage, and 8th in the country with a 36.9% opponents' field goal percentage. That looks promising, and not too surprising for a Frank Martin team. But in their last 6 games (5 SEC games and their win over Iowa State), they have averaged 41.3% shooting and 42.7% against. That's inconclusive.

Moving on, let's look at rebounding. For the season, the Cocks are 35th in offensive rebounding rate (Kentucky is 192nd in defensive rebounding) and 70th in defensive rebounding rate (Kentucky is 1st in offensive rebounding rate). They have a very narrow advantage on the boards in their last six games, averaging 11.0 to 9.5 offensive rebounds and 33.0 to 31.8 total rebounds. Kentucky, in their five conference games, have averaged 39.2 rebounds for and 32.4 rebounds against - although a lot of that is their domination of Mizzou on the boards.

I can't really tell if the rebound totals are going to be close enough to SC to have a chance, so let's look at the third component: turnovers. Kentucky normally wins that battle, but it's going to be crucial for SC to keep it within 2-3 (or maybe even win) if they have a chance to keep it close. UK is 17th in the nation in assist/turnover ratio (1.398) and 50th in turnovers per possession (16.9%). SC is 127th in assist/turnover ratio (1.022) and - gulp - 235th in turnovers per possession (19.9%).

Obviously, this depends on where the spread opens, but I'd take Kentucky to win by double digits. If it gets above 12 or 13, I would be hesitant because they're on the road.

(Kentucky -13 is going right into the tease bag)

#11 Kansas @ #17 Texas, 2pm, CBS

I hate that Kansas is ranked this low, but it's probably pretty accurate. They lost on the road to Temple and Iowa State. They beat Baylor and Georgetown on the road, and beat Tennessee, Michigan State, Florida, Utah, UNLV, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, and Oklahoma at home.

Texas, in the other corner, lost to Stanford, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State before their two most recent wins - a big win at home over West Virginia and a big win on the road at TCU.

I expect Texas to be favored in this game. I also expect them to win because they have four big men that average at least 5 points and 5 rebounds, whereas Kansas relies on Perry Ellis and Cliff Alexander down low (forward Jamari Traylor has 8 points and 4 rebounds total in his last 3 games).

You would therefore expect Kansas to have an advantage in the backcourt, but both teams have 4 guards averaging 4.5 points or more. However, Kansas guards Frank Mason and Kelly Oubre are probably going to be the two best guards on the court.

I think this is going to be a great game because both teams have deep rosters with a lot of talent. We'll have to see where the line opens.

(Line is Texas -3, hate it)

TCU @ #18 West Virginia, 2pm, ESPNU

Both teams are coming off embarrassing losses to Texas (TCU by 18 at home, WVU by 27 at Texas). I think the Mountaineers are going to win this game BIG. They've had all week to stew over the loss, and TCU just isn't good enough to handle that on the road.

(WVU -9 is great tease bag material)

Florida State @ North Carolina, 2pm, ESPN

UNC is going to be a huge favorite, that's for sure. And they may very well cover - FSU has lost some big games this year:

• Providence won 80-54 (neutral court)
• Notre Dame won 83-63 (@ Notre Dame)
• Syracuse won 70-57 (@ Syracuse)
• Pitt won 73-64 (@ Pitt)
• NC State won 72-63 (@ FSU)

And here is how the Tar Heels have done against "teams that are as shitty as Florida State (RPI 135)":

• Beat Ohio State (RPI 54) 82-74 on a neutral court
• Beat UCLA (RPI 73) 78-56 on a neutral court
• Beat Florida (RPI 79) 75-64 on a neutral court
• Beat NC Central (RPI 83) 76-60 at home
• Beat Clemson (RPI 96) 74-50 at Clemson
• Beat William & Mary (RPI 119) 86-64 at home
• Beat Wake Forest (RPI 138) 87-71 at Wake Forest

This is going to be ugly. I'd love to be able to take the Heels by less than ten. We will see where it opens, but I'm in for anything up to about 12 points. 

(UNC -15.5 is too many points)

UCLA @ Oregon, 4pm, CBS

Some bullets for you:

• UCLA scores 72.4 points per game (75th-most in the country)
• Oregon scores 77.6 points per game (22nd-most)
• UCLA allows 69.5 points per game (91st-most in the country)
• Oregon allows 70.7 points per game (67th-most)
• UCLA is 11th in the country with 61.1 field goal attempts per game
• Oregon is 7th in the country with 62.0 field goal attempts per game

I'll take the over, thank you very much. I honestly don't know how high it would have to be for me to not take it. 158? 160? Even higher? 

Michigan State @ Nebraska, 4pm, ESPN

It's a team that plays good defense against a team that plays good offense (and can also play some defense). I have no clue who Vegas thinks is going to win, but I think we could be in for a classic Big Ten game where the total stays under 100 and everyone watching the game is miserably bored. I'm leaning toward teasing MSU and the under, but we will see. 

(MSU -3 is up now, we will have to see about the o/u)

Part two (night games) coming later.