Week 7 College Football Preview: The Noon Games

(If you missed the Louisville-Florida State preview, it's here - but I like FSU -7.)

Here are the rest of the notable 12:00 games:

West Virginia @ Baylor (-21.5)
WVU has been in a freefall, losing by 20 at Oklahoma and by 7 at home to Oklahoma State. Baylor scores 60+ points per game. I like Baylor, I wish it was inside three touchdowns, but I don't want to tease with this because it's either going to be a 30 point blowout or a single-digit nailbiter. It's tough to argue with Baylor's offense though, so I like the Bears -21.5.

Purdue @ Wisconsin (-23.5)
When you Google both of these teams, the first ESPN result is the link to the basketball page. That's a fun fact, and here's another: except for their 3 point loss at Michigan State, Purdue lost has lost their games against Big 5 opponents by 27 (Virginia Tech) and 28 (Minnesota) - and both of those games were at home. I'm almost wondering if the Boilermakers are a frisky road team because they have a home crowd that doesn't care? Couple that with Wisconsin's 1-1 B1G record (lost by 4 at home to Iowa and won by 2 at Nebraska), and I'm in on Purdue +23.5.

Ole Miss (-11) @ Memphis
Memphis is 5-0 against a bunch of crap teams. Ole Miss is 5-1 (2-1 in the SEC). In Ole Miss' only loss, Florida held them to 1 passing touchdown, 259 passing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns, and just 69 rushing yards (nice). For the season, Chad Kelly averages 310.3 yards and 2.3 touchdowns per game (with almost 1 interception per game). Their ground game averages 188.3 yards and 2.8 touchdowns per game. The issue with trying to analyze Ole Miss is they combined for 201 points (25 offensive touchdowns) against UT-Martin, Fresno State, and New Mexico State. Memphis probably won't win, but I'd like to mix this into the teaser bag to get it under a touchdown.

Iowa (-2) @ Northwestern
The friskiest team in the Big Ten getting points at home? I'm in!

Texas Tech (-32.5) @ Kansas
Kansas is another team that has the basketball page show up before the football page, and wow is it easy to see why. 0-5. Lost to South Dakota State. Lost by 32 to Memphis at home. Lost by 13 to Rutgers and by 25 to Iowa State. Coming off a 59 point loss at home to Baylor in which they only managed to score a touchdown on their first drive and go scoreless on their next thirteen. Texas Tech has been held under 50 twice this year (both times they scored 35 points) - at Arkansas, which they won, and at home to Baylor, which they lost because Baylor is Baylor. The Red Raiders beat Iowa State 66-31 last week, so transitive property tells us they should beat Kansas by 50. One of our first rules was Thirty Points Is A Lot, but I'm in on Texas Tech -32.5.

College Football Week 5 Betting Guide

West Virginia @ Oklahoma, 12pm
WVU has beaten up on Georgia Southern, Liberty, and Maryland by a combined score of 130-23. They held their only Big Five opponent to 6 points. They haven't played a road game yet, but the 'Eers went 4-1 on the road last year.

Oklahoma destroyed Akron 41-3 in their opener, then beat Tennessee 31-24 on the road, then beat Tulsa 52-38 at home.

This is a tricky game to predict, and Vegas has been holding around Oklahoma -7. I think that is too many points, so I'm on WVU +7 before it changes to +6.5

Iowa @ Wisconsin, 12pm
Wisconsin lost to Alabama in week one, and it wasn't pretty. Since then, they are 3-0 and have outscored their opponents 114-3. That was a classic B1G Cupcake Run against Miami (OH), Troy, and Hawaii, but still.... 114-3.

Likewise, Iowa has played a classic B1G Cupcake Schedule so far, beating Illinois State and North Texas at home, beating Pittsburgh at home without their only elite player, and getting a huge win on the road against The Second Worst Team In The Big 12. They are being portrayed as a stout run defense, but Wisconsin is going to run all over them.

I have no idea how this line is only 7 points. Give me Wisconsin -7 in this situation every day for the rest of the football season.

(Note: Iowa State is the second-worst team in the Big 12, but Kansas is the worst and ISU is favored by 17 against the Jayhawks this week.)

Alabama @ Georgia, 3:30
This is right from Clay Travis' preview this week: "Here's the deal, these two teams are almost completely equal except Greyson Lambert is playing much better than either of Alabama's quarterbacks. So how do you not take the better quarterback playing at home when the teams are otherwise equal? (And when Georgia can actually make a field goal). The Dawgs win, sending Alabama and Auburn to 0-2 starts in the SEC for the first time in the history of the SEC."

Clay's been hot recently, so let's go Dawgs - UGA -1.5.

Ohio State @ Indiana, 3:30
I wish I had the balls to take Indiana +21.5 here because I don't think OSU will be able to cover that, but I don't.

Ole Miss @ Florida, 7pm
I guess I don't understand how the Rebels, who beat Alabama on the road, are only favored by 7.5 against Florida. The Gators have played one possession games against Tennessee, Kentucky (!), and East Carolina (!!). Maybe throw Ole Miss into a teaser to get it closer to a pickem, but even at the regular spread I still like Ole Miss -7.5.

Notre Dame @ Clemson, 8pm
We have a very staunch "No Betting On Notre Dame" policy, but they're actually getting two points at Clemson. The Irish blew the doors off of Texas, beat Virginia (on the road) and Georgia Tech by a touchdown each, and smacked UMass last week.

Clemson dominated Wofford and App State (snore), and beat Louisville by 3 points on the road.

DeShone Kizer got his tune-up game last week against woeful UMass, and I think ND is just flat out better than Clemson. But we don't bet on them here. I'm just looking out for you guys.

Wednesday Night College Hoops Preview

The 3 games featuring ranked teams tonight feature a 3 touchdown spread, a Conference USA matchup, and a 10:30pm tip-off. No dice.

But there are two 7pm games games featuring conferences that matter and teams that are decent (and we can all be in bed by 9:30 because working is the worst). So we're going to look into them and hopefully find some easy money.

Michigan State @ Iowa, 7pm, ESPN
Line: Iowa -2.5

What MSU (10-5, 1-1 Big Ten) does:

• 5th in the nation in assists per game & 11th in assist/turnover ratio
• 27th in the nation in rebounds per game, made up of a 34.6% offensive rebounding percentage (40th) and a 78.3% defensive rebounding percentage (9th)
• 49th in the country at 74.1 points per game, made up of 53.1% from 2s (121st), 31.9% from 3s (85th), and just 15% from free throws (345th/351)
• 49th in the country at 60.1 points allowed per game, made up of 51.5% from 2s (196th), 25.6% from 3s (94th), and 22.9% from free throws (264th)
• 11th in the country at 40.1% from three point range
• In road games: lost 79-78 (OT) at Notre Dame, won 64-59 at Navy

Right off the bat, we can see three big things. They have an efficient offense that relies on a lot of three pointers and not a lot of free throws. They also give up quite a few free throws, but are otherwise pretty staunch on defense. Third, they are a great rebounding team. 

What Iowa (11-4, 2-0 Big Ten) does:

• 32nd in the nation is rebounds per game, made up of 34.1% offensive rebounding percentage (51st) and 72.3% defensive rebounding percentage (118th)
• 117th in the country at 70.7 points scored per game, made up of 49.6% from 2s (212th), 25.8% from 3s (228th), and 24/6% from free throws (32nd)
• 39th in the country at 59.3 points against per game, made up of 53.5% from 2s (264th), 29.0% from 3s (205th), and 17.4% from free throws (53rd)
• 78th in the country with 22.4 free throw attempts per game, and they make 77.7% of them (4th in the country)
• In big home games: beat Nebraska 70-59, lost to Iowa State 90-75

Matching this up with the MSU stats, we see that Iowa should have no trouble getting to the free throw line, but might have trouble scoring otherwise. They also appear to be in for a difficult night trying to stop MSU from the field. I'd call it about a tie on the boards, which is surprising because Iowa's four best players are two forwards and two centers (MSU has no centers on the roster and their tallest player is listed at 6'9"). 

The pick depends on how you feel about two pieces: (1) is MSU going to shoot anywhere close to their usual numbers? (2) does the home crowd matter enough? I would answer Yes-No and take Sparty +2.5, but it's not quite the lock I was looking for tonight.

LSU @ Missouri, 7pm, ESPN2
Line: LSU -3

What LSU (11-2, 0-0 SEC) does:

• 14th in the country with 40.9 rebounds per game
• 17th in the country with 16.8 assists per game
• 40th in the country with 75.6 points per game
• 10th in the country with 28.4 rebounds per game allowed
• 12th in the country with 6.0 blocks per game
• In road games: won 79-70 @ UAB, won 74-73 @ West Virginia
• 142nd-toughest schedule (3rd-easiest in the SEC)

What Mizzou (6-7, 0-0 SEC) does:

• Stink
• 240th in the country in points per game at 65.4
• 205th in the country in points allowed per game at 67.2
• Granted, they have the 30th most difficult schedule in the country (3rd toughest in the SEC)
• 242nd in the country with 33.5 rebounds per game
• 310th in the country with 10.2 assists per game

I almost don't even want to go any deeper. Just hammer LSU and count your money. But I will, because I want to make sure we're really going to call this a lock. And because life in the cube is a dull, dreary place.

How LSU scores:

• 75.6 points per game is the 34th-most in the nation
• 63.5% of their points come from 2-pointers, 4th best in the nation behind Presbyterian, South Florida, and Cal State Northridge
• Just 19.2% of their points come from 3-pointers, 16th-fewest in the country
• Just 17.3% of their points come from free throws, 39th-fewest in the country
• 0.291 free throw attempts per field goal attempt is 323rd in the country

How you can score on Mizzou:

• 67.2 points per game is the 205th-best in the nation
• 47.4% of points come from 2-pointers, 66th-fewest in the country
• 27.6% come from 3-pointers, 157th-fewest in the country
• 24.9% come from free throws, 43rd-most in the country

How Mizzou scores:

• 65.4 points per game is the 240th-best in the nation
• 49% of points come from 2-pointers, 229th-most in the nation
• 29% come from 3-pointers, 154th-most in the nation
• 22% come from free throws, 122nd-most in the nation
• 0.412 free throw attempts per field goal attempt is 89th in the country

How you can score on LSU:

• 65.6 points per game is the 172nd-best in the nation
• 57.7% of points come from 2-pointers, 25th-most in the nation
• 26.4% come from 3-pointers, 121st-fewest in the country
• 15.9% come from free throws, 23rd-fewest in the country

Rebounding:

• LSU grabs 33.9% of offensive rebounds (53rd)
• LSU grabs 72.0% of defensive rebounds (125th)
• Mizzou grabs 27.1% of offensive rebounds (224th)
• Mizzou grabs 70.2% of defensive rebounds (194th)

Players for Missouri that are not playing:

• Junior guard Deuce Bello is out. He averages 3 points and 1 rebound in about 11 minutes per game
• Freshman guard Montaque Gill-Caesar is questionable with back spasms. Bello isn't a big loss, but MGC averages 27 minutes, 11.5 points, 4 rebounds, and a steal
• That's almost a third of the minutes that Mizzou's guards play

This is such a steal my head is going to explode. LSU -3 is the unquestionable play of the night. Bet your Valentine's Day fund and treat your girl twice as nice next month. 

Thursday Night Picks

Plain and simple, we have to be better than last night. As the old saying goes, shooters have to keep shooting the ball until it goes in. Luckily, it's Thursday so there are quite a few big games to choose from.

NFL - Chiefs @ Raiders (+7.5), 8:25pm

The Chiefs are the league's fourth-best running team. The rest of the top five is Seattle, Dallas, Houston, New York Jets. The Raiders have the 27th-best rushing defense in terms of yards per game. Simple logic would say that KC is going to run all over them and win by a million.

But not so fast! As it turns out, the Raiders have played the Jets, Texans, and Seahawks. They lost all three (obviously, because they're 0-10), but the only team to win by more than a touchdown was Houston, 30-14. But that was a game where Oakland lost two fumbles, threw two interceptions, and did not force a turnover. For the season, they average 1.4 turnovers and 0.9 takeaways.

I like the Raiders, especially if you're getting more than a touchdown. Some other potential plays are Oakland +13.5 (-200), +14.5 (-230), and +17.5 (-350). To get really crafty, if you parlay Oakland +14.5 with the Chiefs -380 moneyline, you end up with a line of -123 on "Chiefs To Win By 14 Or Less".

NCAA - #10 Texas (-6) vs. #25 Iowa (Game at Madison Square Garden), 7pm
NCAA - #22 SMU @ Indiana (+3), 8pm
NCAA - #23 Syracuse (-5) @ Cal (Game at Madison Square Garden), 9pm

National championship odds from Bovada:

• Texas at 33/1, Iowa at 100/1
• SMU at 66/1, Indiana at 100/1
• Syracuse at 40/1, Cal at 300/1

Quote: "SMU earned its first preseason ranking in 30 years but likely won't be included in next week's poll after coming up short in a tough environment its last time out." ESPN

I like the two better teams with the more prestigious programs in the primetime MSG games. And I like Indiana as a slight home underdog because I don't trust SMU (who already lost at Gonzaga) to be able to go into a Big 10 team's house and beat them.