NFL - Chiefs @ Raiders (+7.5), 8:25pm
The Chiefs are the league's fourth-best running team. The rest of the top five is Seattle, Dallas, Houston, New York Jets. The Raiders have the 27th-best rushing defense in terms of yards per game. Simple logic would say that KC is going to run all over them and win by a million.
But not so fast! As it turns out, the Raiders have played the Jets, Texans, and Seahawks. They lost all three (obviously, because they're 0-10), but the only team to win by more than a touchdown was Houston, 30-14. But that was a game where Oakland lost two fumbles, threw two interceptions, and did not force a turnover. For the season, they average 1.4 turnovers and 0.9 takeaways.
I like the Raiders, especially if you're getting more than a touchdown. Some other potential plays are Oakland +13.5 (-200), +14.5 (-230), and +17.5 (-350). To get really crafty, if you parlay Oakland +14.5 with the Chiefs -380 moneyline, you end up with a line of -123 on "Chiefs To Win By 14 Or Less".
NCAA - #10 Texas (-6) vs. #25 Iowa (Game at Madison Square Garden), 7pm
NCAA - #22 SMU @ Indiana (+3), 8pm
NCAA - #23 Syracuse (-5) @ Cal (Game at Madison Square Garden), 9pm
National championship odds from Bovada:
- Texas at 33/1, Iowa at 100/1
- SMU at 66/1, Indiana at 100/1
- Syracuse at 40/1, Cal at 300/1
I like the two better teams with the more prestigious programs in the primetime MSG games. And I like Indiana as a slight home underdog because I don't trust SMU (who already lost at Gonzaga) to be able to go into a Big 10 team's house and beat them.