Friday, November 14, 2014

Week 12 College Football Betting Guide

(Editor's note: This is copied and pasted from an e-mail that I sent Dag this morning, with a few minor edits to make it a little easier to follow. The most logical move would be to bet the exact opposite of what we end up betting. Last night, we had USC -14 and the over (72). I fell asleep when the score was 31-2. Feeling good. Easy money. The final score was 38-31. Which, if you are keeping score at home, makes us 0-2 already on the weekend.)

Yeah, and how do you think I feel?

Saturday's notable lines:

Noon Games

Temple @ Penn State - Line is PSU -11
Quote: "One big play could result in a Temple victory in what has the potential to be a very low-scoring affair." Black Shoe Diaries
Summary: Both teams are stronger on defense that they are on offense. Temple's D gives up 18.1 points per game, has 25 takeaways and has scored six defensive touchdowns. As much as we like Christian Babyface Hackenberg, his 7-12 TD-INT ratio does not seem ideal for this situation. 
Pick: Temple +11. I don't know if they win straight up, but the thought of this game reaching the point where there is an 11 point difference doesn't make sense to me. I'm expecting something in the teens on both sides and it will not be fun to watch. 

Ohio State @ Minnesota - Line is OSU -14
Quote: "I have no idea what is going to happen in this game" me

Clemson @ Georgia Tech - Line is Clemson -3
Quote: "Georgia Tech averages 335.6 yards rushing per game. Clemson allows an average of only 90.9 yards rushing." Fox Sports
Related: If you didn't know, Georgia Tech runs the ball a lot. They would seem to be a slightly worse team than Clemson, but I think a lot of that has to do with Clemson's success over the past few years. Will GT be able to get the run game going against the Clemson D? Todd Gurley went for 198 and 3 touchdowns against Clemson, in a game where Nick Chubb also went for 70 and a score. They choked away the FSU game but only gave up 13 rushing yards (I think - somehow Karlos Williams went for 45 and a TD but the team total was 13 yards). Against the two best teams they've played so far (Duke and Miami), Ga Tech ran for 282 and 318 yards, and both of those teams have fairly stingy defenses - although admittedly a notch below Clemson's. 
Pick: Tech +3 at home. 

South Carolina @ Florida - Line is UF -7
Summary: Florida's 4-3 SEC record is inflated because three of those wins are against Kentucky (in 3 OT's), Tennessee (by 1 point), and Vandy - so it's a lot of beating bad teams. That being said, SC has lost to A&M, Mizzou, Kentucky, Auburn (okay), and Tennessee. So they definitely could be considered a 'bad team'.
Pick: I like Florida but I'd like it more if it moved inside a touchdown. 

Afternoon Games

TCU @ Kansas - Line is TCU -28.5
Baylor beat Kansas 60-14. TCU knows they have to come close to that because they're going to be fighting Baylor's resume. I think they have to cover. 
Pick: TCU -28.5 (and I think it's stealing).

Auburn @ Georgia - Line is UGA -2
The top two rushing offenses in the SEC. The next 4 are MSU, Arkansas, LSU, and Bama. Georgia won by 13 at Arkansas. Auburn won by 24 at home to Arkansas, beat LSU by 34, lost at Miss St. Gurley's back, Chubb's killing it. 
Pick: Georgia is much better than Arkansas and LSU, and I'd put them in the same category as Miss St. I like them at home and I think 2 points is a generous spread. 

Night Games

Missouri @ Texas A&M - Line is TXAM -4.5 
Quote: "He's one of the great competitors I've ever been around. I'd put him in my top five since I've been coaching," coach Gary Pinkel said. Sports Illustrated (This was about D-lineman Shane Ray). Gary is the winningest coach in Toledo and Missouri history, and has coached Brad Smith, Ziggy Hood, Jeremy Maclin, Blaine Gabbert, Aldon Smith, Sheldon Richardson, and Michael Sam. I don't think this has too much to do with the outcome of the game but I thought that was a cool fun fact. 
Summary: The A&M story is well known. Mizzou has beaten everybody they've been supposed to beat (except Indiana), and outside of the waxing they took at home against Georgia, they've had a decent year and could challenge Georgia for the SEC East. 
Pick: idk

Miss St @ Alabama - Line is Tide -8.5
Quote: "The Tide has won three of four matchups with No. 1 teams over the past five seasons and outscored them collectively 101-36." ABC News
Summary: My gut says Bama wins by about 20. But TJ Yeldon sprained his ankle last week. 
But Wait! Bonus Quote!: "They probably have more 5-star players sitting on the bench who can't get a rep than we have on our entire roster," Mullen said.
So I'm not worried about depth. Yeldon only accounts for 36% of Bama's carries, 37% of their rushing yards, and 26% of rushing touchdowns. 
A few other bullets:
  • This game has the two highest-rated quarterbacks in the SEC (Sims actually edges Dak by 0.5 points). 
  • Josh Robinson (MSU) is the second-leading rusher in the conference, and Dak is number 8. 
  • Amari Cooper (Bama) is the conference's leading receiver by almost 500 yards. Seriously. He has 1215 yards, and Pharoh Cooper (no relation, I think?) is in second with 786. 
  • Total offense: edge to MSU 
  • Passing attack: edge to Bama
  • Rushing attack: edge to MSU
  • Total defense is about a wash
  • Pass defense: edge to Bama (heavily)
  • Rush defense edge to Bama. 
Pick: Bama -8.5. It's high, but Sims is going to tear apart the MSU defense. Teams are about even everywhere else, but the highest rated quarterback (and Saban) against the worst pass defense in the SEC (300.6 yards per game!) is going to kill this cinderella story. (Bonus pick: Bo puts the nails in their coffin in two weeks)

Florida State @ Miami - Line is FSU -3
A very perplexing line, but I don't want to think too much into it. FSU has to be the play. Nole Tide!

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