NBA Finals Game One Player Props

Series Prices: Cavaliers +170, Warriors -200

Cavs road to the Finals:

• Beat Detroit 4-0 (average score 103.5 to 95.0)
• Beat Atlanta 4-0 (average score 112.0 to 99.5)
• Beat Toronto 4-2 (average 113.0 to 84.5 in wins, 91.5 to 102.0 in losses)
• Overall average margin of victory: +16.5 in wins, +12.5 overall

Lebron is averaging 24.6 points in the postseason and has pretty much been solid in every game. His primary supporting cast (Kyrie, Love, and JR Smith) have supported him in some combination every night. That trio is averaging 24.3, 17.3, and 12.0 points per game.

If three of the four have good nights, the Cavs haven't had a problem at all. The issue arose in games 3 and 4 against Toronto, which are currently their only two playoff losses. Two of the Cav's three primary support guys were cold, at least by their standards (Love and Kyrie in Game 3, then Love and Smith in Game 4).

Warriors road to the Finals:

• Beat Houston 4-1 (average 113.5 to 89.8 in wins, lost 97-96)
• Beat Portland 4-1 (average 121.3 to 112.8 in wins, lost 120-108)
• Beat Oklahoma City 4-3 (average 110.5 to 97.8 in wins and 100.3 to 119.7 in losses)
• Overall margin of victory: +15,0 in wins, +6.4 overall

Steph and Klay are averaging 26.7 and 26.2 points each. Obviously, the best-shooting backcourt in history isn't having a problem filling up the scoresheet. 

If they have an easy weakness to spot, it's that their leading rebounder (Draymond Green) is 6'7" and the only other big man who plays more than ten minutes a night is Andrew Bogut, who averages 6.5 rebounds in just 18 minutes per game. 

The Cavs frontcourt, of course, is made up of Love (6'10", 9.6 rebounds per game), James (6'8", 8.6 rpg), Tristan Thompson (6'9", 8.4 rpg). For me, the Finals boils down to one question: can the Warriors hit enough shots to overcome Cleveland's presumed advantage on the boards? Vegas seems to think they can, and they seem to think that pretty aggressively. 

Game One, Tonight at 9:00, at Golden State

Point Spread: Warriors -6

For the Warriors to cover, they'd have to dominate this game like they have dominated almost all of their wins in the playoffs.

The -6 confuses me though, because the Dubs have pretty much been winning by double digits and losing by getting their doors blown off. Does -6 mean Vegas is swaying toward a doube-digit victory or toward the Cavs winning game one? I'm having a hard time reading it.

Over/Under 211 Total Points

From the Golden State side, this isn't helpful. Either the Warriors will win big and the game will go over, or they will lose big and the game will go over. To be fair, games 6 and 7 against the Thunder both would have stayed under.

The average Cavs game, however, is way below that 211 number. Their only games all postseason that would have gone over were games 2 and 3 against the Hawks. To piggyback on what we mentioned before, they've been controlling the glass and controlling the pace.

So, in my mind, the O/U being set this high favors Golden State.

The Bet: Tease Golden State -1.5 & Over 206.5

Teasers are the best, and this gives us a little bit of breathing room on the Warriors and the over. I think I would feel confident betting both/either of the normal lines, but teasing always kind of seems to just draw me in.

(Editor's note: I will try to update this with some player props when they are released this afternoon.)

Week 12 College Football Betting Guide

(Editor's note: This is copied and pasted from an e-mail that I sent Dag this morning, with a few minor edits to make it a little easier to follow. The most logical move would be to bet the exact opposite of what we end up betting. Last night, we had USC -14 and the over (72). I fell asleep when the score was 31-2. Feeling good. Easy money. The final score was 38-31. Which, if you are keeping score at home, makes us 0-2 already on the weekend.)

Yeah, and how do you think I feel?

Saturday's notable lines:

Noon Games

Temple @ Penn State - Line is PSU -11

Quote: "One big play could result in a Temple victory in what has the potential to be a very low-scoring affair." Black Shoe Diaries

Summary: Both teams are stronger on defense that they are on offense. Temple's D gives up 18.1 points per game, has 25 takeaways and has scored six defensive touchdowns. As much as we like Christian Babyface Hackenberg, his 7-12 TD-INT ratio does not seem ideal for this situation. 

Pick: Temple +11. I don't know if they win straight up, but the thought of this game reaching the point where there is an 11 point difference doesn't make sense to me. I'm expecting something in the teens on both sides and it will not be fun to watch. 

Ohio State @ Minnesota - Line is OSU -14

Quote: "I have no idea what is going to happen in this game" me

Clemson @ Georgia Tech - Line is Clemson -3

Quote: "Georgia Tech averages 335.6 yards rushing per game. Clemson allows an average of only 90.9 yards rushing." Fox Sports

Related: If you didn't know, Georgia Tech runs the ball a lot. They would seem to be a slightly worse team than Clemson, but I think a lot of that has to do with Clemson's success over the past few years. Will GT be able to get the run game going against the Clemson D? Todd Gurley went for 198 and 3 touchdowns against Clemson, in a game where Nick Chubb also went for 70 and a score. They choked away the FSU game but only gave up 13 rushing yards (I think - somehow Karlos Williams went for 45 and a TD but the team total was 13 yards). Against the two best teams they've played so far (Duke and Miami), Ga Tech ran for 282 and 318 yards, and both of those teams have fairly stingy defenses - although admittedly a notch below Clemson's. 

Pick: Tech +3 at home. 

South Carolina @ Florida - Line is UF -7

Summary: Florida's 4-3 SEC record is inflated because three of those wins are against Kentucky (in 3 OT's), Tennessee (by 1 point), and Vandy - so it's a lot of beating bad teams. That being said, SC has lost to A&M, Mizzou, Kentucky, Auburn (okay), and Tennessee. So they definitely could be considered a 'bad team'.

Pick: I like Florida but I'd like it more if it moved inside a touchdown. 

Afternoon Games

TCU @ Kansas - Line is TCU -28.5

Baylor beat Kansas 60-14. TCU knows they have to come close to that because they're going to be fighting Baylor's resume. I think they have to cover. 

Pick: TCU -28.5 (and I think it's stealing).

Auburn @ Georgia - Line is UGA -2

The top two rushing offenses in the SEC. The next 4 are MSU, Arkansas, LSU, and Bama. Georgia won by 13 at Arkansas. Auburn won by 24 at home to Arkansas, beat LSU by 34, lost at Miss St. Gurley's back, Chubb's killing it. 

Pick: Georgia is much better than Arkansas and LSU, and I'd put them in the same category as Miss St. I like them at home and I think 2 points is a generous spread. 

Night Games

Missouri @ Texas A&M - Line is TXAM -4.5 

Quote: "He's one of the great competitors I've ever been around. I'd put him in my top five since I've been coaching," coach Gary Pinkel said. Sports Illustrated (This was about D-lineman Shane Ray). Gary is the winningest coach in Toledo and Missouri history, and has coached Brad Smith, Ziggy Hood, Jeremy Maclin, Blaine Gabbert, Aldon Smith, Sheldon Richardson, and Michael Sam. I don't think this has too much to do with the outcome of the game but I thought that was a cool fun fact. 

Summary: The A&M story is well known. Mizzou has beaten everybody they've been supposed to beat (except Indiana), and outside of the waxing they took at home against Georgia, they've had a decent year and could challenge Georgia for the SEC East. 

Pick: idk

Miss St @ Alabama - Line is Tide -8.5

Quote: "The Tide has won three of four matchups with No. 1 teams over the past five seasons and outscored them collectively 101-36." ABC News

Summary: My gut says Bama wins by about 20. But TJ Yeldon sprained his ankle last week. 

But Wait! Bonus Quote!: "They probably have more 5-star players sitting on the bench who can't get a rep than we have on our entire roster," Mullen said. AL.com

So I'm not worried about depth. Yeldon only accounts for 36% of Bama's carries, 37% of their rushing yards, and 26% of rushing touchdowns. 

A few other bullets:

• This game has the two highest-rated quarterbacks in the SEC (Sims actually edges Dak by 0.5 points). 
• Josh Robinson (MSU) is the second-leading rusher in the conference, and Dak is number 8. 
• Amari Cooper (Bama) is the conference's leading receiver by almost 500 yards. Seriously. He has 1215 yards, and Pharoh Cooper (no relation, I think?) is in second with 786. 
• Total offense: edge to MSU 
• Passing attack: edge to Bama
• Rushing attack: edge to MSU
• Total defense is about a wash
• Pass defense: edge to Bama (heavily)
• Rush defense edge to Bama. 

Pick: Bama -8.5. It's high, but Sims is going to tear apart the MSU defense. Teams are about even everywhere else, but the highest rated quarterback (and Saban) against the worst pass defense in the SEC (300.6 yards per game!) is going to kill this cinderella story. (Bonus pick: Bo puts the nails in their coffin in two weeks)

Florida State @ Miami - Line is FSU -3

A very perplexing line, but I don't want to think too much into it. FSU has to be the play. Nole Tide!

Some Interesting Super Bowl Betting Lines

Bill Barnwell posted this over on Grantland this morning (link here) but I just wanted to show you some interesting lines. Keep in mind that these are all legitimate lines, either from the Las Vegas Hotel or Bovada. Combined, they have like 500 lines to bet on just for this one game but I'm going to give you the five best. And keep in mind, "best" can mean whatever I want it to mean because I am a blogger.

Quick note on how betting works: a +150 means you win $150 in addition to the $100 you spent. A -150 means you need to spend $150 to win $100 - but you also get your original $150 back. I'm pretty sure that's how it works.  

5. Will Kelly Clarkson's stomach be bare when she sings the national anthem?
Yes (+300)
Let's just get this one out of the way. It's funny when you consider that this is what Kelly Clarkson used to look like:

...and this is what she looks like now:

The logical thing to do would be to hope that she doesn't bare her stomach. For her sake and for America's. Game over on the betting side. But I do have this one question for all my Kelly Clarkson fans: does her website (and her fan sites too, I guess) use images of her from when she was hot or images of what she looks like now? 

4. Who will have more?

Brandon Jacobs Touchdowns (-300)

Wayne Rooney Goals vs. Chelsea (Feb. 5) (+250)

Who Is Trying To Gamble on MLK Day?