NBA Finals Game One Player Props

Series Prices: Cavaliers +170, Warriors -200

Cavs road to the Finals:

• Beat Detroit 4-0 (average score 103.5 to 95.0)
• Beat Atlanta 4-0 (average score 112.0 to 99.5)
• Beat Toronto 4-2 (average 113.0 to 84.5 in wins, 91.5 to 102.0 in losses)
• Overall average margin of victory: +16.5 in wins, +12.5 overall

Lebron is averaging 24.6 points in the postseason and has pretty much been solid in every game. His primary supporting cast (Kyrie, Love, and JR Smith) have supported him in some combination every night. That trio is averaging 24.3, 17.3, and 12.0 points per game.

If three of the four have good nights, the Cavs haven't had a problem at all. The issue arose in games 3 and 4 against Toronto, which are currently their only two playoff losses. Two of the Cav's three primary support guys were cold, at least by their standards (Love and Kyrie in Game 3, then Love and Smith in Game 4).

Warriors road to the Finals:

• Beat Houston 4-1 (average 113.5 to 89.8 in wins, lost 97-96)
• Beat Portland 4-1 (average 121.3 to 112.8 in wins, lost 120-108)
• Beat Oklahoma City 4-3 (average 110.5 to 97.8 in wins and 100.3 to 119.7 in losses)
• Overall margin of victory: +15,0 in wins, +6.4 overall

Steph and Klay are averaging 26.7 and 26.2 points each. Obviously, the best-shooting backcourt in history isn't having a problem filling up the scoresheet. 

If they have an easy weakness to spot, it's that their leading rebounder (Draymond Green) is 6'7" and the only other big man who plays more than ten minutes a night is Andrew Bogut, who averages 6.5 rebounds in just 18 minutes per game. 

The Cavs frontcourt, of course, is made up of Love (6'10", 9.6 rebounds per game), James (6'8", 8.6 rpg), Tristan Thompson (6'9", 8.4 rpg). For me, the Finals boils down to one question: can the Warriors hit enough shots to overcome Cleveland's presumed advantage on the boards? Vegas seems to think they can, and they seem to think that pretty aggressively. 

Game One, Tonight at 9:00, at Golden State

Point Spread: Warriors -6

For the Warriors to cover, they'd have to dominate this game like they have dominated almost all of their wins in the playoffs.

The -6 confuses me though, because the Dubs have pretty much been winning by double digits and losing by getting their doors blown off. Does -6 mean Vegas is swaying toward a doube-digit victory or toward the Cavs winning game one? I'm having a hard time reading it.

Over/Under 211 Total Points

From the Golden State side, this isn't helpful. Either the Warriors will win big and the game will go over, or they will lose big and the game will go over. To be fair, games 6 and 7 against the Thunder both would have stayed under.

The average Cavs game, however, is way below that 211 number. Their only games all postseason that would have gone over were games 2 and 3 against the Hawks. To piggyback on what we mentioned before, they've been controlling the glass and controlling the pace.

So, in my mind, the O/U being set this high favors Golden State.

The Bet: Tease Golden State -1.5 & Over 206.5

Teasers are the best, and this gives us a little bit of breathing room on the Warriors and the over. I think I would feel confident betting both/either of the normal lines, but teasing always kind of seems to just draw me in.

(Editor's note: I will try to update this with some player props when they are released this afternoon.)

NHL Players Are Supremely Underpaid

One of the larger off-ice stories in the NHL this weekend was the report that Tampa Bay offered Steven Stamkos an extension with a cap hit of $8.5 million per year. To be fair, it's probably their opening offer and I would think they know they have to pay him more.

But still, $8.5 million is peanuts in professional sports. It's what Eagles tight end Zach Ertz just signed for. He's a solid contributor, sure, but Stamkos is one of the ten best hockey players on the planet.

This got me thinking about salary discrepancy between the major American sports, let's take a look at some notable cap hits:

MLB Starting Pitchers

Clayton Kershaw, $34.6 million
Zack Greinke, $34.0
David Price, $30.0
Justin Verlander, $28.0
Felix Hernandez, $25.9
CC Sabathia, $25.0
Jon Lester, $25.0
Cole Hamels, $23.5

MLB Position Players

Miguel Cabrera, $28.0 million
Yoenis Cespedes, $27.5
Albert Pujols, $25.0
Ryan Howard, $25.0 (hang on I'm going to go pour myself a tall glass of bleach)
Prince Fielder, $24.0
Robinson Cano, $24.0
Mark Teixeira, $23.1
Joe Mauer, $23.0

NFL Quarterbacks

Drew Brees, $30.0 million
Joe Flacco, $28.6
Eli Manning, $24.2
Ben Roethlisberger, $24.0
Matt Ryan, $23.8
Matt Stafford, $22.5
Peyton Manning, $21.5
Phil Rivers, $21.0
Tony Romo, $20.8
Cam Newton, $19.5

NFL Position Players

Ndamukong Suh, $28.6 million
Calvin Johnson, $24.0
Mario Williams, $19.9
Justin Houston, $19.1
Darrelle Revis, $17.0
Julio Jones, $15.9
Larry Fitzgerald, $15.9
Calais Cambell, $15.3
Demaryius Thomas, $15.2

NBA Players

Kobe Bryant, $25.0 million
Joe Johnson, $24.9
LeBron James, $23.0
Carmelo Anthony, $22.9
Dwight Howard, $22.4
Chris Bosh, $22.2
Chris Paul, $21.5
Kevin Durant, $21.2
Derrick Rose, $20.1
Dwyane Wade, $20.0
Brook Lopez, $19.7

Every single one of the players on this list makes considerably more than any player in the NHL. That makes sense - football, baseball, and basketball are all more popular than hockey and the total revenue will reflect that popularity. Television deals, especially, create this disparity.

But let's take another angle and find some comparables for the highest-paid NHL players:

Jonathan Toews & Patrick Kane, $10.5 million each

The richest men in hockey (both in terms of contract dollars and trophy case prestige) earn Julius Peppers money. They earn slightly more than linemen Cameron Heyward, Ryan Kalil, and Nate Solder. They're also paid just a bit more than NBA role players Wilson Chandler and Monta Ellis.

I was scared to check the MLB list here because baseball players are so overpaid. For $21 million annually, you could either have Toews and Kane... or Ben Zobrist and Kendrys Morales.

Anze Kopitar's new extention, $10.0 million
Alexander Ovechkin, $9.5 million
Evgeni Malkin, $9.5 million
PK Subban, $9.0 million

The $9-10 million range is where you find four of the six highest-paid players in hockey. Stamkos might join this group to make it five out of seven, but I'd bet he surpasses the two Blackhawks.

In other sports, you're lucky if you can get a solid role player for this kind of money. Receivers like Victor Cruz, Brandon Marshall, DeSean Jackson, and Randall Cobb are all in this range. Some notable defensive footballers here are Lavonte David, Aqib Talib, Cameron Wake, and Byron Maxwell (this is a really rough post overall for Philly fans, need more bleach).

In the NBA, this range is split between old guys who are banking a bunch of money in the twilight of their careers (Zach Randolph, Anderson Varejao, Jeff Green) and guys who are in their prime (Mike Conley, DeMar DeRozan, Rajon Rondo).

There are some nice value contracts in the MLB in this range. Primarily, that group is starting pitchers: Chris Sale ($9.2 million), Madison Bumgarner ($10.0), Jeff Samarzdija ($9.0), Edinson Volquez ($9.5).

Sidney Crosby, $8.7 million
Henrik Lundqvist, $8.5 million

Unquestionably among the NHL's elite, you could even argue that Sid and Hank are the best at their position in the league. For the price of them you could have Nick Foles, Jason Witten, Donte Whitner, or Jordy Nelson. If you look to the NBA, instead of a franchise cornerstone you get Tiago Splitter, Brandon Jennings, or Trevor Ariza.

To be fair, there are a pair of cornerstone NBA guys in this range. But they are Kevin Garnett and Dirk Nowitzki, who are as old as Topher Grace and the actress who plays the Red Woman in Game of Thrones. Dirk and KG are certainly over the hill, so I guess it makes sense that they're in the same group as Crosby and Lundqvist.

Phillies catcher Carlos Ruiz is also in this price range. He's also over the hill and I'm going to need to refill my mason jar of bleach again.

Daniel & Henrik Sedin, $7.0 million each

The Sedin twins' cap hit is matched exactly by linemen Logan Mankins, Michael Bennett, and Desmond Bryant; point guards Rodney Stuckey and Cory Joseph; and infielders Mike Napoli and Yunel Escobar.

It's easy to argue that the Sedins are overpaid (and even easier to argue that they're super fucking weird), but they've been among the NHL's elite for like a decade. Those other guys - not so much.

Tyler Seguin, $5.8 million

Perhaps the best value in the NHL, Seguin's a superstar in Dallas. The best comparable in the NFL is Jameis Winston's rookie contract. To reiterate: a player that had never played a second of professional football signed a contract that paid him as well as one of the most electric young hockey players in the world. What a time to play a sport other than hockey.

The NBA comparable might be even funnier. It's Kyle Korver.

RJ Umberger $4.6 million (I have to start going to a new CVS because I bought out all of the bleach from the one by my house)

At this point in the other pro sports leagues, you're looking at (1) guys you've only vaguely heard of and (2) rookie contracts. Some of my favorite football players (aka the ones I've heard of before) are Rob Ninkovich, Paul Posluszny, and Michael Oher.

The Umberger cap figure is also a great microcosm of the Philadelphia sports scene. As his contract dwindles to its bitter end and moves the Flyers closer to having cap flexibility and competing, he's earning as much as two youngsters that share his building: Jahlil Okafor and Joel Embiid.

Have you guys tried the new Clorox Fresh Meadow Scented Bleach? It really tastes good and makes me forget about how much it sucks to live in Philly.

Sean Couturier's extension, $4.3 million

Happiness! Young talent locked up long term! Hope! We have some!

The only players that can even hope to be in the conversation at this price range are Danny Amendola ($4.4 million), Steve Smith ($4.2), Matt Harvey ($4.3), and a big group of NBA rookie contracts.

That group of rookies - Lillard, Porzingis, Harrison Barnes, to name a few - will almost certainly be getting raises that put them among the group of NBA players at the beginning of this post. I'd guess that for the upcoming cap hits of Lillard/Porzingis/Barnes combined, you could afford to ice a full set of four forward lines of just Sean Couturier clones. I love you, Ron Hextall.

Shayne Gostisbehere, $0.9

Okay fine, this one is a rookie contract so it's kind of cheating.

NBA Nicknames: The good, the bad, and the nothing special

This is completely a ripoff of a discussion that Bill Simmons had with (Zach Lowe, I think but I forget) on the BS Report where they talked about doing a column ranking the NBA nicknames in terms of relevancy. In keeping with the theme that I’m completely copying Simmons’ whole schtick, this broke down into five categories for me (in order from worst to best):

• This blatantly makes no sense but we all know why they’re called this
• Why did you name your team this?
• Nothing special, this nickname could work in any city/sport
• Good try
• Nailed it!

This blatantly makes no sense but we all know why they’re called this

30. Utah Jazz

29. Los Angeles Lakers

Which is greater: number of lakes in Los Angeles or number of jazz flautists in Utah?

Why did you name your team this?

Quick note on this category: we actually kind of know why they named these teams the way they did. But still…. Why?

28. Brooklyn Nets

Back when they were the New York Nets, they had the whole Nets/Mets/Jets thing going. Expect a name change soon. I’m sad to say that I can’t make any more Jay-Z references when I talk about the Nets.

27. Indiana Pacers

Loosely related to auto racing. Not even slightly related to basketball.

26. Los Angeles Clippers

You have to hope that LA gets San Diego’s Channel 4, because a Clipper is actually an old ship used in the Civil War era. Can’t make that up.

Nothing special, this nickname could work in any city/sport

25-19 (tie). Atlanta Hawks, Golden State Warriors, Memphis Grizzlies, Oklahoma City Thunder, Phoenix Suns, Sacramento Kings, Toronto Raptors

18-15 (tie). Chicago Bulls, Cleveland Cavaliers, Portland Trail Blazers, Washington Wizards

Broke it up into two subcategories (names I like and names I don’t). Quick notes: OKC was almost nicknamed the Twisters, which would have been awkward; Raptors was better when Bosh was their best player because he was also a mascot.

Good try I guess

14. New Orleans Pelicans

Only good if it gets shortened to Cans, because #MardiGras.

13. New York Knicks

I’m going to get a lot of shit for this, but Knickerbockers just doesn’t do it for me.

12. Dallas Mavericks

11. Charlotte Bobcats

Because there are bobcats in North Carolina. When they change to the Hornets, it will probably stay in this range. Allegedly, a British commander during the Revolutionary War referred to Charlotte was a nest of hornets. Not sure if he was referring to basketball, but I doubt it.

10. Detroit Pistons

9. Orlando Magic

8. Minnesota Timberwolves

Minnesota is the only state in the lower 48 with free-roaming packs of timber wolves, which is a little bit terrifying. Also, #VamosWolves.

7. Miami Heat

Because it’s hot in Miami! Get it?

6. Milwaukee Bucks

This is pretty hypocritical, but I like the nod to big buck hunting. Definitely a lot cooler than the Milwaukee White Tail Deer (the WNBA team).

Nailed it!

5. San Antonio Spurs

Spurs -> Cowboys -> Hard work/Not flashy -> Tim Duncan

4. Houston Rockets

The coolest part of the Rockets name is that the nickname originated when the team was in San Diego. And then they moved to the home of NASA and it just got that much better.

3. Denver Nuggets

Originally named for the Colorado gold rush of the 1800s. Now twice as awesome because, you know, Colorado. And nuggets.

2. Boston Celtics

I love Ireland.

1. Philadelphia 76ers

I love America more. 

Fictional Basketball Trade of the Day: The T'wolves Need A Shooting Guard

Yesterday, the Star Tribune (Twin Cities, Minnesota) posted an article about how the Timberwolves really, truly, desperately need a point guard (link here). Jim Souhan, the author, was trying to make a case that Wayne Ellington, Wes Johnson, and Martell Webster need to step up. One of them, Souhan wrote, needs to solidify himself as the starting shooting guard. They obviously can't start both Ricky Rubio and Luke Ridnour in the backcourt - those guys are both in the neighborhood of 6'2", 175 pounds. If one of them is left to guard Kobe Bryant (6'6", 205 pounds, possibly the most talented player in the NBA, definitely the most ferocious), bad things are going to happen to Minnesota. Take, for example, the stat line from the MIN-LAL matchup:

K. Bryant: 35 points, 14-29 FG, 5-9 3FG, 14 rebounds, 38.8 JPoint


I could put up those numbers too, if I was primarily matched up an eighth grader.

So the next logical step would be for one of the taller guys to get the start at 2-guard, right? There's three main options (with season stats, in order of how many minutes per game they average):

Wesley Johnson (6'7"): 22.3 minutes, 5.9 points, 3.0 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 36.8% FG, 23.6% 3FG, 60% FT, 23.8 JPoint
Wayne Ellington (6'4"): 21.2 minutes, 6.7 points, 1.8 rebounds, 0.5 assists, 40.7% FG, 35.9% 3FG, 78% FT, 31.2 JPoint
Martell Webster (6'7"): 17.0 minutes, 6.7 points, 3.3 rebounds, 0.3 assists, 36.4% FG, 37.5% 3FG, 33% FT, 28.5 JPoint



The only way to analyze that is to say that Minnesota has three low-end-of-average options are shooting guard. Johnson was the #4 overall draft pick and it's safe to say that he has not performed the way a lottery pick is expected to. Ellington is their best offensive option (usually) but he's terribly inconsistent and he gives up height to the other two - and to much of the league. Webster was the guy that Souhan called on to step up and be Minnesota's backcourt savior. Personally, I just don't see either of these three guys filling the role well enough for Kevin Love to lead them to a whole lot of success. But the good news is I LOVE THE NBA TRADE MACHINE (and the T'wolves) so I'm going to work some wizardry and find a 2-guard for David Kahn to trade for.

Why Chicago Can't Afford For Luol Deng To Be Out "A While"

Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau is reporting that Luol Deng has a torn wrist ligament and is going to be out for (and I quote) "a while".

Bulls fans: hope that "a while" does not mean a long time and that Deng can avoid season-ending surgery. It could be fatal. It's fair to say that Deng is the Bulls' second-best player, behind Derrick Rose. He contributes on both ends in ways that his replacements (rookie Jimmy Butler or one of the Ronnie Brewer/Kyle Korver shooting guard duo) simply can't.

When the Bulls play the Heat, Deng guards either Dwyane Wade or Lebron James. When they play the Lakers, he guards Kobe Bryant. Kevin Durant. Andre Iguodala. Rudy Gay. Paul Pierce. Joe Johnson. See where this is going? He guards the other team's best player, and with his size and length, he usually shuts them down pretty well. He fills the defensive stopper role popularized most recently by Ron Artest and Shawn Marion.

The Dwight Howard Trade Situation

Since the summer, one of the biggest NBA free agent headlines (aside from Chris Paul) has been the future destination for Dwight Howard. It's amazing how much speculation goes on during times like this. Remember in the summer of 2010 when LeBron was rumored to be going to a new team everyday until this? The amount of pressure put on these athletes to make the right decision for not only themselves, but for the fans, their team and the league is unfathomable. But in Dwight Howard's case, it's confusing as to why he is having such a difficult time with his choice.

Sport Capitalism

This is a response to Mark's post about the Green Bay Packers from yesterday. To summarize:

• The Packers are owned by the public
• Packers fans fill Lambeau field to the tune of a 31-year waiting list for season tickets
• If the Jets drew the same fans-to-local-population ratio, they would need 5.4 million fans per game (you guys know how I love stats that support a point)
• Since the team is owned by a large group of people, the GM is given a lot of power and has a lot of expectations to meet. Because he does not own any of the team, he is not protected by the whole "I paid for the team so I am going to be here as long as I want" theory like a lot of owners

Who Is Trying To Gamble on MLK Day?

"The Knicks Are Back"...Almost

So here's the thing, I've been a huge Knicks fan for a very, very long time. I was convinced they could be a playoff team ever since Stephon Marbury was running the show, Jamal Crawford chucked, and chucked and chucked AND since Nate Robinson fought JR Smith.

Now, things in New York are a little different. The beginning of the 2010-2011 season began with the failure to sign LeBron James-but also with the success of signing Amar'e Stoudemire. The departure of fan favorite David Lee left fans upset but it was just the first sign of change to come in the Big Apple. The team had definitely improved and Amar'e was surrounded by young talent with loads of potential.

Guest Blog: Trevor Laicha on Allen Iverson

This guest blog comes to us, again, from younger bro Trevor. 

Congrats To Dirk on 23k

Dirk Nowitzki scored the 23,000th point tonight, placing him into an elite group of NBA players that has to be considered just about the best 23 NBA players from history. Most of them only need one name. One of them only needs two letters. The full list:

Guest Blog: Trevor Laicha - Free Throws

I'd like to present you with our first-ever Bullets Blog Guest Blog. Written after Lebron left 8 points at the free throw line last night and cost the Heat a victory. 


Thanks Trevor

The JPoint and Some Thoughts on Kobe

So we got a lot of feedback about the Kobe/JPoint post last night. Some of it was logical and literate. So I took that feedback into account and would like to present you with a revision of the stat.

I'm Back...With a Vengeance

It's been a while but the original NBA writer for this site (ME) is back. I was very angered by the last post regarding a man some call Kobe "Bean" Bryant so I decided to instill some knowledge on you people.

Why Kobe's 48 Was Not Really That Big Of A Deal

Wow, Kobe scored 48 points in one game!!!

Oh, wait. He took 31 shots from the field and 13 from the free throw line. That's nearly half of the Lakers' field goals and more than half of their free throws.