Week 7 College Football Preview: The Night Games

(In case you missed them, I broke down the Florida State-Louisville game here and the rest of the noon games here. Then I previewed afternoon games, Michigan-Michigan State here and Alabama-A&M here. To recap those posts, we're on FSU -7 early, buying the extra half a point if we need to. We're also on Baylor, Purdue, Northwestern, and Texas Tech. We also have Ole Miss in the tease bag, waiting for a partner.)

Florida @ LSU (-7.5), 7:00
We have a lot to get to for tomorrow night so let's cut right to the chase here: LSU has beaten every team by 10+ points except Mississippi State, and they've won every home game by 21+. Miss State played them by far the closest of anyone this year, and LSU squeaked by with a 2 point win. Overall, MSU has a pretty average defense, and the box score doesn't show that they did anything crazy in that game. In reading recaps, it seems like LSU got clipped by some dumb penalties? I like LSU, but I'd prefer to toss it into the tease bag.

Boston College @ Clemson (-16.5), 7:00
Honestly guys, sixteen and a half against the best defense in the country? I don't even know if Clemson can score 17 points. Give me BC, please and thank you.

USC @ Notre Dame (-5), 7:30
As you guys know, we can't bet against Notre Dame. But I wanted to take a second to send some T's and P's to Steve Sarkisian, I hope he gets some help and some clarity in the next few months.

Missouri @ Georgia (-14.5), 7:30
Mizzou has been up and down this season, but Georgia has scored 30+ on everyone except Alabama. If we could tease the Dawgs down to (or even inside) a touchdown, I'd be all for adding it to the teasebag. At 14.5 though? I think I'd have to stay away.

Penn State @ Ohio State (-17.5), 8:00
Here's your weekly Mail It In Direct Quote From Clay Travis On Outkick The Coverage: "I can't tell you guys how much I love this game. Last year Penn State took Ohio State to double overtime after playing them virtually even in total yardage for the entire game. 

There was nothing flukish about this game, in fact, Ohio State actually got the benefit of some atrocious first half calls, otherwise Penn State might have won in regulation.

This year Penn State has won five straight games after a tough opening week loss to Temple. But most of the nation hasn't even noticed this. Meanwhile, Ohio State has been mediocre all season long, failing to cover in every game since week one. 

So you're telling me I've got a Penn State team that knows it was good enough to beat Ohio State last year, going on the road in a game that no one is giving them any chance to win? This is the situation that James Franklin dreams of, he's great at playing the no respect card.

My jaw dropped when I saw this line open at Ohio State -17.5. So far it hasn't budged much off that line. Don't just hammer Penn State here, take them on the money line for a part of your bet too. Get rich, kids."

Arizona State @ Utah (-6), 10:00
I mentioned in the Texas A&M preview that this weekend is when we'll find out if Arizona State is a legit contender out west. They aren't. Utah is going to spank them. This line inside of a touchdown is the easiest money of the whole weekend. Lock of the week, Utah -6.

Oregon @ Washington (-3), 10:30
I was really surprised to see this line. Oregon, recently, has been a contender for the Pac-12 title every year for a long time now Could 3-2 Washington really be favored over them? How fucking disrespectful is that? Then I did some digging (not a lot, tbh) and found that Washington won at USC last week and went to Boise State and only lost by 3 earlier this year. Boise State ran for 2 touchdowns and kicked 2 field goals, and USC ran for 1 and kicked 2. Against Michigan State and Utah (good defenses), Oregon combined to throw for 3 touchdowns, run for 3 more, and kick 0 field goals. Against the rest of their opponents, the Ducks averaged 2.0 touchdowns in the air, 3.8 touchdowns on the ground, and 2.3 field goals. So, yeah, Vegas, I think you fucked up and I think I'll take the Ducks -3 and the moneyline at +125 too.

Week 6 College Football Preview

This is not a great time for us, guys. Our last eight bets (going back to last weekend) are losses. We went 0-4 last night because Matt Hasselbeck turned out to be good, the two players with the most touchdowns for each team turned out to be bad, and there was a 42-yard touchdown as the first half expired to blow our "Longest Touchdown Under 40.5 Yards" play.

We need to turn this ship around. And we aren't going to do that by betting the way we have been betting. I'm going to go #guru on this, the way I normally do for college basketball. I'm looking at strengths and weaknesses. And god damnit, we're going to win a fucking bet!

The SEC's Best Rushing Teams

• LSU (334.0 yards per game, 75.4% of offensive plays)
• Georgia (244.8, 61.2%)
• Tennessee (225.0, 63.5%)
• Arkansas (204.0, 58.3%)
• Alabama (199.8, 52.8%)
• South Carolina (190.2, 60.1%)
• Auburn (190.0, 66.0%)
• Texas A&M (188.0, 54.1%)
• Ole Miss (173.0, 49.7%)
• Vanderbilt (157.0, 50.4%)
• Mississippi State (155.0, 44.1%)
• Florida (140.6, 53.1%)
• Kentucky (135.0, 53.4%)
• Missouri (116.2, 51.8%)

The SEC's Best Passing Teams

• Ole Miss (327.4 yards per game, 50.3% of offensive plays)
• Texas A&M (292.4, 45.9%)
• Mississippi State (284.8, 55.9%)
• Arkansas (272.0, 41.7%)
• Vanderbilt (255.4, 49.6%)
• Florida (253.6, 46.9%)
• Alabama (244.0, 47.2%)
• Kentucky (230.6, 46.6%)
• Georgia (208.0, 38.8%)
• Missouri (203.0, 48.2%)
• Tennessee (192.8, 36.5%)
• South Carolina (163.2, 39.9%)
• Auburn (153.8, 34.0%)
• LSU (95.5, 24.6%)

My first takeaway is LSU might as well not even have a quarterback. The same goes for Auburn, Tennessee, Georgia, and South Carolina. Arkansas is right on the border. 

Here are the SEC matchups this weekend:

Georgia (-3.5) @ Tennessee, 3:30

Lotttttt of rushing yards to be had here. In SEC play, Georgia beat Vandy and SC both handily, then got creamed by Alabama. That doesn't really tell us a whole lot, other than those lists I just made are utterly useless. 

I can tell you that UGA held Vandy - granted, a team not totally committed to rushing - to just 105 yards and 2.7 yards per carry. South Carolina, a team that focuses more on the run, managed to get 174 yards and 4.5 yards per carry. Alabama runs more effectively (although not necessarily more) than either of those teams, and they hit the Dawgs for 189 yards while holding Georgia to 193. 

This is pretty simple then: will Tennessee be able to hold Georgia's rushing attack in check and counter it with Jalen Hurd and Josh Dobbs? The Vols did that to Florida, though the Gators are more of a balanced attack. Arkansas ran ALL OVER Tennessee, out-rushing them 275 to 133. That didn't get reflected on the scoreboard, though, as the Hogs only won 24-20. Of their 11 total drives (not counting the end of the game), Arkansas scored just two touchdowns and two field goals. 

Four different Georgia players have combined to rush for the team's 15 touchdowns, and Malcolm Mitchell and Sonny Michel have each caught 3 of the team's 8 passing touchdowns. Greyson Lambert is one of the better quarterbacks in the SEC, and the Dawgs are going to be hungry after last week's embarrassment. I'm in. 

LSU (-15) @ South Carolina, 3:30

In conference, LSU has played Mississippi State and Auburn. That should give us a good look at how they fare against pass-heavy teams and against rush-heavy teams. They squeaked by on the road at MSU (21-19), and creamed Auburn at home (45-21), and the Tigers sit at a Kind Of Overinflated 4-0

That Auburn game is key because those blue and orange tigers are similar to South Carolina. They want to pound the ball on the ground. Auburn did that against LSU, totaling 160 yards and 4.3 yards per carry. But 65 of those yards (and the only rushing touchdown) came on one touchdown run for Jeremy Johnson, who still only averaged 3.4 yards per attempt. 

I'm penciling in the Cocks for the high teens or low twenties. Can LSU score enough to cover two touchdowns? If their games against Kentucky (3 rushing touchdowns), Georgia (4), and Mizzou (1) mean anything, it is going to be a busy day for Future Heisman Winner Leonard Fournette. Give me the Tigers on the road and let's help the Ol' Ball Coach one step closer to living on a beach. 

Arkansas @ Alabama (-16.5), 7:00

If you just look at the two lists above, this looks like it should be a lot closer than a 17 point game. It seems like half of that spread is coming from Nick Saban and Lane Kiffin being a million times better than Brent Bylsma, and the other half is coming from the players on the field. 

'Bama has played 3 legitimate top-25 teams: they beat Wisconsin by 18, lost to Ole Miss by 6, and just thrashed Georgia by 28 last week. 

Arkansas has played one team that is MAYBE as good as any of those three - Texas A&M, who beat the Hogs by 7. 

To cover this big of a spread, though, Alabama is going to have to be firing on all cylinders. Derrick Henry has 9 touchdowns so far, and he's going to need at least a pair. Jake Coker has run for 2 touchdowns and thrown for 9, but he's also thrown 4 interceptions this year. Arkansas has 3 interceptions on the year, but one came against UTEP and the other two came against Texas Tech, who have attempted 44 more passes than any SEC team (and 61 more than the Tide).

This one is going to be a game time decision. Rule number one is Never Bet On The Worse Team, so it's either Alabama or nothing. Spoiler alert: on Saturday at like 6:58, it will be Alabama. 

Florida (-5) @ Missouri, 7:30

These two have three things in common. (1) They stink. (2) They run the ball slightly more than they throw the ball. (3) They aren't particularly effective at running or throwing the ball. 

Bovada doesn't post over/under numbers until game day, but my side chick (Sportsbook.ag) has the total for this game at 39.5. Both of these teams are going to be kind of inflated coming off wins last week (Mizzou 24-10 against South Carolina and Florida 38-10 against Ole Miss), and I think this number is actually inflated too. 

I'm never a person that bets the under. I think, if your goal is to enjoy watching the game, betting the under is incredibly counterproductive. But listen, man. I made those lists. It told us that these two teams don't do anything good on offense. Courtesy of Fox Sports, I can also tell you that they are the first- and third-ranked teams in the SEC in points against per game.

Neither team is breaking twenty points, baby! Under 39.5! Catch the fever!

Wednesday Night College Hoops Preview

The 3 games featuring ranked teams tonight feature a 3 touchdown spread, a Conference USA matchup, and a 10:30pm tip-off. No dice.

But there are two 7pm games games featuring conferences that matter and teams that are decent (and we can all be in bed by 9:30 because working is the worst). So we're going to look into them and hopefully find some easy money.

Michigan State @ Iowa, 7pm, ESPN
Line: Iowa -2.5

What MSU (10-5, 1-1 Big Ten) does:

• 5th in the nation in assists per game & 11th in assist/turnover ratio
• 27th in the nation in rebounds per game, made up of a 34.6% offensive rebounding percentage (40th) and a 78.3% defensive rebounding percentage (9th)
• 49th in the country at 74.1 points per game, made up of 53.1% from 2s (121st), 31.9% from 3s (85th), and just 15% from free throws (345th/351)
• 49th in the country at 60.1 points allowed per game, made up of 51.5% from 2s (196th), 25.6% from 3s (94th), and 22.9% from free throws (264th)
• 11th in the country at 40.1% from three point range
• In road games: lost 79-78 (OT) at Notre Dame, won 64-59 at Navy

Right off the bat, we can see three big things. They have an efficient offense that relies on a lot of three pointers and not a lot of free throws. They also give up quite a few free throws, but are otherwise pretty staunch on defense. Third, they are a great rebounding team. 

What Iowa (11-4, 2-0 Big Ten) does:

• 32nd in the nation is rebounds per game, made up of 34.1% offensive rebounding percentage (51st) and 72.3% defensive rebounding percentage (118th)
• 117th in the country at 70.7 points scored per game, made up of 49.6% from 2s (212th), 25.8% from 3s (228th), and 24/6% from free throws (32nd)
• 39th in the country at 59.3 points against per game, made up of 53.5% from 2s (264th), 29.0% from 3s (205th), and 17.4% from free throws (53rd)
• 78th in the country with 22.4 free throw attempts per game, and they make 77.7% of them (4th in the country)
• In big home games: beat Nebraska 70-59, lost to Iowa State 90-75

Matching this up with the MSU stats, we see that Iowa should have no trouble getting to the free throw line, but might have trouble scoring otherwise. They also appear to be in for a difficult night trying to stop MSU from the field. I'd call it about a tie on the boards, which is surprising because Iowa's four best players are two forwards and two centers (MSU has no centers on the roster and their tallest player is listed at 6'9"). 

The pick depends on how you feel about two pieces: (1) is MSU going to shoot anywhere close to their usual numbers? (2) does the home crowd matter enough? I would answer Yes-No and take Sparty +2.5, but it's not quite the lock I was looking for tonight.

LSU @ Missouri, 7pm, ESPN2
Line: LSU -3

What LSU (11-2, 0-0 SEC) does:

• 14th in the country with 40.9 rebounds per game
• 17th in the country with 16.8 assists per game
• 40th in the country with 75.6 points per game
• 10th in the country with 28.4 rebounds per game allowed
• 12th in the country with 6.0 blocks per game
• In road games: won 79-70 @ UAB, won 74-73 @ West Virginia
• 142nd-toughest schedule (3rd-easiest in the SEC)

What Mizzou (6-7, 0-0 SEC) does:

• Stink
• 240th in the country in points per game at 65.4
• 205th in the country in points allowed per game at 67.2
• Granted, they have the 30th most difficult schedule in the country (3rd toughest in the SEC)
• 242nd in the country with 33.5 rebounds per game
• 310th in the country with 10.2 assists per game

I almost don't even want to go any deeper. Just hammer LSU and count your money. But I will, because I want to make sure we're really going to call this a lock. And because life in the cube is a dull, dreary place.

How LSU scores:

• 75.6 points per game is the 34th-most in the nation
• 63.5% of their points come from 2-pointers, 4th best in the nation behind Presbyterian, South Florida, and Cal State Northridge
• Just 19.2% of their points come from 3-pointers, 16th-fewest in the country
• Just 17.3% of their points come from free throws, 39th-fewest in the country
• 0.291 free throw attempts per field goal attempt is 323rd in the country

How you can score on Mizzou:

• 67.2 points per game is the 205th-best in the nation
• 47.4% of points come from 2-pointers, 66th-fewest in the country
• 27.6% come from 3-pointers, 157th-fewest in the country
• 24.9% come from free throws, 43rd-most in the country

How Mizzou scores:

• 65.4 points per game is the 240th-best in the nation
• 49% of points come from 2-pointers, 229th-most in the nation
• 29% come from 3-pointers, 154th-most in the nation
• 22% come from free throws, 122nd-most in the nation
• 0.412 free throw attempts per field goal attempt is 89th in the country

How you can score on LSU:

• 65.6 points per game is the 172nd-best in the nation
• 57.7% of points come from 2-pointers, 25th-most in the nation
• 26.4% come from 3-pointers, 121st-fewest in the country
• 15.9% come from free throws, 23rd-fewest in the country

Rebounding:

• LSU grabs 33.9% of offensive rebounds (53rd)
• LSU grabs 72.0% of defensive rebounds (125th)
• Mizzou grabs 27.1% of offensive rebounds (224th)
• Mizzou grabs 70.2% of defensive rebounds (194th)

Players for Missouri that are not playing:

• Junior guard Deuce Bello is out. He averages 3 points and 1 rebound in about 11 minutes per game
• Freshman guard Montaque Gill-Caesar is questionable with back spasms. Bello isn't a big loss, but MGC averages 27 minutes, 11.5 points, 4 rebounds, and a steal
• That's almost a third of the minutes that Mizzou's guards play

This is such a steal my head is going to explode. LSU -3 is the unquestionable play of the night. Bet your Valentine's Day fund and treat your girl twice as nice next month.