College Football Season Prop Recap: Week Four

It's Monday morning. I'm working with a four day hangover. I almost just turned my alarm off and took the day off of work. Looking back on that decision from my desk, I very clearly made the wrong decision.

But I'm at work, so I might as well work, right? Instead of doing actual work, though, I'm going to recap the eventful weekend we had with our season-long bets on Washington, FSU, Tennessee, and Oklahoma.

Let's start off with the easy one.

Oklahoma Had A Bye Week

And man, they needed it. They played Houston and Ohio State in weeks one and three, and they come out of the bye against TCU and then Texas. Those two games are the season for the Sooners; they could end up 3-2 (2-0 in the conference) with a manageable schedule the rest of the way, or they could end up 1-4 (0-2 in the conference) and be completely dead before mid-October.

Confidence Level: Well, It's Either Us Or Baylor Or West Virginia

#9 Washington Beat Arizona, 35-28 (OT)

We knew this game was going to be a lot different from the cakewalk the Huskies had for the first three games of the season. Arizona was the first "real" team they had to play.

Quarterback Jake Browning came back down to earth from his usual 300+ yards and 4+ touchdowns, finishing with 160 yards, 2 touchdowns (including the overtime winner), and an interception. But the real story was the Washington running game combining for 352 yards, 3 touchdown, and 6.9 yards per carry. That, against an Arizona defense that allowed an average of about 150 yards per game and 4-ish yards per carry is a very good sign.

Part two of the trilogy of rough games is at Stanford next week.

Confidence Level: Somewhat Moderately High

#13 Florida State Beat South Florida, 55-35

At one point on Saturday afternoon, I checked my phone and this game was tied 14-14. I had bad thoughts, and I thought FSU might blow it.

From that point, the 'Noles scored three towndowns and kicked a field goal to go into halftime with a 38-14 lead. The two teams traded shots for the second half, and it turned out to be a relatively comfortable win.

Deondre Francois was his usual comfortable freshman self, totaling 169 passing yards, 75 rushing yards, and one of each kind of touchdown. Dalvin Cook, per usual, was the star. My man went for 267 yards on 9.5 yards per carry and two scores.

The 'Noles got bumped up from 13 to 12 with the win, but they no longer control their own fate in the division. Louisville is going to have to lose twice to some combination of Clemson, Duke, NC State, Virginia, and Wake Forest.

Confidence Level: Not Great, Bob

#14 Tennessee Beat Florida, 38-28

You should already be reading Clay Travis' four posts per week, but just in case you missed his college football recap yesterday, he summed up this game perfectly:

The Vols started the season in the national top ten, but this is their first appearance in the Outkick top ten. After muddling their way through the App State and Ohio games and playing one good half against Virginia Tech, at halftime of the Florida game, with the Vols trailing 21-3, I was ready to pronounce them dead.

But then something remarkable happened -- the Vols posted one of the best halves in the history of the program, thoroughly dominating Florida, turning a 21-0 deficit into a 38-21 advantage.

The result? The Vols roar into our top ten. (Clay has them ranked 9th in the nation, the polls have them 11th.)

Confidence Level: I Wish It Was Higher But Georgia, Texas A&M, And Alabama Over The Next Three Weeks Is Really Fucking Daunting

College Football Season Prop Recap: Week Three

Sorry for the delay. I usually try to post these on Monday morning, but I was busy providing great client service and I got sidetracked from what really matters.

Let's dive right in.

#2 Florida State lost to Louisville

We're going to breeze right through this Noles summary. They got killed, Louisville looked awesome, and they have no chance of winning their division.

Confidence Level: Bad

#8 Washington beat Portland State

They walloped Portland State (fucking bearded flannel hipsters) and moved to 3-0 against three fairly unimpressive opponents. That said, any time you can win three weeks in a row by a combined 148-30, things are good.

So now the Huskies move from a really easy trio to a REALLY hard trio. At Arizona, host Stanford, at Oregon. That's the whole season right there, boys.

Quarterback Jake Browning has been almost flawless. Backup quarterback KJ Carta-Samuels has thrown a mop-up touchdown in every game. The rushing and receiving attacks have been balanced, and there are about a dozen guys that can realistically contribute in those roles. This first month has gone as well as it could have for Washington.

Confidence Level: Higher Than Florida State

#14 Oklahoma lost to #3 Ohio State

After opening the season with a loss to Houston, Oklahoma really wasn't supposed to beat Ohio State. And they did not.

Here's the only comparison you need to sum up the game. Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield threw two touchdowns and two interceptions. Ohio State's JT Barrett threw four touchdowns and no interceptions.

The saving grace for Oklahoma is the rest of the Big 12 kind of stinks. TCU is technically winning the conference now (at 1-0) after they beat Iowa State in the only Big 12 game so far this season. Baylor and West Virginia are undefeated, but they've played NWST, SMU, RICE, MIZ, and YSU. That's a considerable step down from Houston and Ohio State.

And then Texas, who is the only other ranked Big 12 team (Oklahoma dropped to #25). The Longhorns are currently #21 basically exclusively because they outlasted Notre Dame in that season opener. But Notre Dame scored 47 points on them, and ND's probably going to end up being an unranked team when this season is all said and done.

Confidence Level: Higher Than Washington

#15 Tennessee beat Ohio

Tennessee is like the exact opposite of Washington, even though they have identical 3-0 records.

The Vols came into this year as the favorite in the SEC East. The Huskies were more of a dark horse in the Pac-12 North.

The Huskies have absolutely dominated the easy portion of their schedule, beating everyone by 30+ points. The Vols needed overtime to beat Appalachian State, had a good showing against lowly Virginia Tech, and just this past week they only beat Ohio by 9 points. Single digits!

Josh Dobbs was, once again, just okay. Jalen Hurd is now the second best player in the SEC whose name starts with "Jalen Hur". Kicker Aaron Medley is just 3/5 on field goals for the season.

Confidence Level: Florida Might Beat Them By 30 This Week

College Football Season Prop Recap: Week Two

Coming into week two, we were riding high with Washington and Florida State and maybe a little bit concerned about Tennessee and Oklahoma. Given the level of competition our four teams were facing this weekend, it was really crucial that we ended the day with four big ("statement") wins. 

And we did. 

Oklahoma 59, Louisiana Monroe 17

Florida State 52, Charleston Southern 8

Washington 59, Idaho 14

Three games against non-power-conference schools, one combined score of 170-39. Obviously these three games were always supposed to be lopsided, but it's reassuring that none of them had any semblance of a scare this weekend. 

Let's take a look at some of the highlight performers, bullet-style:

• Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield and Austin Kendall combined for 352 yards and 5 touchdowns (Mayfield sat out the second half because it was such a blowout)
• Oklahoma's Joe Mixon and Abdul Adams ran for 117 and 91 yards respectively, and Samaje Perine had 58 yards and 2 touchdowns
• Oklahoma completed passed to 12 different receivers
• Florida State's Deondre Francois threw for 262 yards and 3 touchdown (with 1 interception)
• FSU's Dalvin Cook (Future Heisman Trophy Finalist) ran for 83 yards and 2 touchdowns
• Florida State's Travis Rudolph caught 7 passes for 105 yards and 2 touchdowns
• FSU's Jesus Wilson ran a punt back 89 yards for a touchdown
• Washington's Jake Browning threw for 295 yards and 5 touchdowns
• Here are the Huskies who caught touchdown passes: John Ross (2), Dante Pettis (2), Chico McClatcher, Quinten Pounds
• Chico McClatcher and Quinten Pounds. Just back in the glow of those names
• The Oklahoma and Washington kickers both kicked 8 extra points, and the Florida State kicker kicked 7 extra points

Confidence Level: Pretty Gosh Darn High for all three of these teams

It's really easy to pick out guys who had good days from these three games, because they were competing against significantly inferior talent. But what about the last team on our list? Tennessee was the only team to play against a power-conference team:

Tennessee 45, Virginia Tech 24

No problem. Granted, Va Tech kind of stinks now, but Tennessee rebounded nicely from their Week One struggles against Appalachian State. 

Josh Dobbs threw for just 91 yards, but he had 3 passing touchdowns, 105 rushing yards, and 2 rushing touchdowns. Jalen Hurd added 99 yards on 22 carries, and that was basically enough for the Vols to sink the Hokies. 

The most important stat of this game was the turnover battle. Dobbs threw an interception, but Virginia Tech lost FIVE fumbles. That is absolutely not something that will happen when Tennessee starts facing SEC competition, and the scoreboard would look a whole hell of a lot different if the Hokies has turned even two of those five into points. 

Confidence Level: Still Kind Of Low But Certainly Not As Low As Last Week

College Football Season Prop Recap: Week One

This day in the office is an absolutely must for any "Worst Work Days Of The Year" list. I'm basically nursing a four day hangover where all I drank was Bud Light and all I ate was eggs and cheesesteaks. There's a ton of work leftover from when I left at 2:30 on Friday, and an extra day's worth of shit to deal with from the long weekend.

But at least we had football this weekend, right?

As a reminder, we went with four season props this year. We bet the following teams to win their divisions (not conferences, other than Oklahoma because the Big XII has no divisions):

• Tennessee
• Oklahoma
• Washington
• Florida State

So we kicked off the weekend with Tennessee needing overtime to beat a Division 2 school, and then followed that up with Oklahoma losing to Houston. Then Washington blew out Rutgers and Florida State had their miracle second half and snuck a win away from Ole Miss. Let's do some deep dives:

Tennessee 20, Appalachian State 13 (OT)

Josh Dobbs was supposed to be the big swinging dick, best quarterback in the SEC, savior that steamrolled Tennessee to the SEC East championship. He kicked off his season with a 55% completion percentage, a single touchdown, an interception, and a QBR of 26.3. 

And this was against a Sun Belt team! App State is no longer Division 1-FCS, but they're still a team that should not be capable of taking a potential SEC Division Champion to overtime. 

Running back Jalen Hurd had a decent stat sheet - 28 carries, 110 yards, 1 touchdown. But he only averaged 3.9 yards per carry. What's going to happen when he's not playing against Future Enterprise Rent-A-Car Employees?

Confidence Level: Kind Of Low 

Oklahoma 23, Houston 33

This game, in retrospect, was all about field position. Both quarterbacks threw for 300+ yards and two touchdowns, both teams had decent but not great rushing attacks, and both offenses avoided turnovers. 

But Houston kicked four field goals and Oklahoma kicked one, and that's the whole game. 

Here's how the rest of the Big XII did: 

• Lost: Kansas State (Stanford), Iowa State (Northern Iowa)
• Beat A Shitty Team: Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Texas Tech
• Beat A Decent Team: West Virginia (Mizzou)
• Beat A Ranked Team: Texas (Notre Dame)

Confidence Level: Kind Of Low

Washington 48, Rutgers 13

Obviously, blowing out a power five team in the home opener is a great start. But Rutgers kind of stinks at football, so I'm going to try to temper my expectations here. 

Statistically, just about every aspect of this Huskies game was solid. Here are the nitpicky things that I see that could have been better:

• Jake Browning threw an interception. There, that one was easy. 
• Darrell Daniels dropped a touchdown pass. That's not good. 
• John Ross caught two touchdowns and ran a kick back for a third, but didn't score any touchdowns on punt returns. There's some room for improvement in his game. 
• Rutgers' quarterback is from Long Island and the Huskies only picked him off one time. 

This was a really tough exercise. Ross didn't score on a punt return because he doesn't return punts. Yeah, they only got one interception, but Brandon Beaver ran it back 46 yards and they scored on the next play. 

Washington looks good, and they're going to have to crush Idaho and Portland State the next two weeks if we're going to keep that good feeling going into the Arizona-Stanford-Oregon portion of the schedule. 

Confidence Level: Pretty Gosh Darn High

Florida State 45, Ole Miss 34

I wrote this game off just before halftime and went to bed. My alarm at 6:15 comes early, and I figured 28-6 was basically sheets for FSU last night and for the season.

And then, magic happened. 

Touchdown. Field goal. Touchdown, touchdown, touchdown. Three more field goals in the fourth quarter sealed the deal, and somehow Florida State is not dead today. 

Freshman Deondre Francois threw for 400 yards and no interceptions, boom that's what we need from him. 

Future Heisman Winner Dalvin Cook ran for just 91 yards and was help out of the end zone, but he chipped in with 100 receiving yards. With Dalvin, you know he's going to get featured somehow. Totaling almost 200 yards against the most stout defense he'll face all year is a great place to start his Heisman campaign. 

The 'Nole defense picking off Chad Kelly three times was enormous, and really that defense in the third quarter allowed them to mount their comeback. 

And, last but not least, Ricky "Sticky Icky" Aguayo was 3/3 on extra points and 6/6 on field goals. If you had the kid in Fanduel, you ended up with 16 points and that was probably enough for you to win. 

Oh and Clemson only scored 19 points to sneak a win away from Auburn. 

Confidence Level: Pretty Gosh Darn High

Week 7 College Football Preview: The Night Games

(In case you missed them, I broke down the Florida State-Louisville game here and the rest of the noon games here. Then I previewed afternoon games, Michigan-Michigan State here and Alabama-A&M here. To recap those posts, we're on FSU -7 early, buying the extra half a point if we need to. We're also on Baylor, Purdue, Northwestern, and Texas Tech. We also have Ole Miss in the tease bag, waiting for a partner.)

Florida @ LSU (-7.5), 7:00
We have a lot to get to for tomorrow night so let's cut right to the chase here: LSU has beaten every team by 10+ points except Mississippi State, and they've won every home game by 21+. Miss State played them by far the closest of anyone this year, and LSU squeaked by with a 2 point win. Overall, MSU has a pretty average defense, and the box score doesn't show that they did anything crazy in that game. In reading recaps, it seems like LSU got clipped by some dumb penalties? I like LSU, but I'd prefer to toss it into the tease bag.

Boston College @ Clemson (-16.5), 7:00
Honestly guys, sixteen and a half against the best defense in the country? I don't even know if Clemson can score 17 points. Give me BC, please and thank you.

USC @ Notre Dame (-5), 7:30
As you guys know, we can't bet against Notre Dame. But I wanted to take a second to send some T's and P's to Steve Sarkisian, I hope he gets some help and some clarity in the next few months.

Missouri @ Georgia (-14.5), 7:30
Mizzou has been up and down this season, but Georgia has scored 30+ on everyone except Alabama. If we could tease the Dawgs down to (or even inside) a touchdown, I'd be all for adding it to the teasebag. At 14.5 though? I think I'd have to stay away.

Penn State @ Ohio State (-17.5), 8:00
Here's your weekly Mail It In Direct Quote From Clay Travis On Outkick The Coverage: "I can't tell you guys how much I love this game. Last year Penn State took Ohio State to double overtime after playing them virtually even in total yardage for the entire game. 

There was nothing flukish about this game, in fact, Ohio State actually got the benefit of some atrocious first half calls, otherwise Penn State might have won in regulation.

This year Penn State has won five straight games after a tough opening week loss to Temple. But most of the nation hasn't even noticed this. Meanwhile, Ohio State has been mediocre all season long, failing to cover in every game since week one. 

So you're telling me I've got a Penn State team that knows it was good enough to beat Ohio State last year, going on the road in a game that no one is giving them any chance to win? This is the situation that James Franklin dreams of, he's great at playing the no respect card.

My jaw dropped when I saw this line open at Ohio State -17.5. So far it hasn't budged much off that line. Don't just hammer Penn State here, take them on the money line for a part of your bet too. Get rich, kids."

Arizona State @ Utah (-6), 10:00
I mentioned in the Texas A&M preview that this weekend is when we'll find out if Arizona State is a legit contender out west. They aren't. Utah is going to spank them. This line inside of a touchdown is the easiest money of the whole weekend. Lock of the week, Utah -6.

Oregon @ Washington (-3), 10:30
I was really surprised to see this line. Oregon, recently, has been a contender for the Pac-12 title every year for a long time now Could 3-2 Washington really be favored over them? How fucking disrespectful is that? Then I did some digging (not a lot, tbh) and found that Washington won at USC last week and went to Boise State and only lost by 3 earlier this year. Boise State ran for 2 touchdowns and kicked 2 field goals, and USC ran for 1 and kicked 2. Against Michigan State and Utah (good defenses), Oregon combined to throw for 3 touchdowns, run for 3 more, and kick 0 field goals. Against the rest of their opponents, the Ducks averaged 2.0 touchdowns in the air, 3.8 touchdowns on the ground, and 2.3 field goals. So, yeah, Vegas, I think you fucked up and I think I'll take the Ducks -3 and the moneyline at +125 too.