(In case you missed them, I broke down the Florida State-Louisville game here and the rest of the noon games here. Then I previewed afternoon games, Michigan-Michigan State here and Alabama-A&M here. To recap those posts, we're on FSU -7 early, buying the extra half a point if we need to. We're also on Baylor, Purdue, Northwestern, and Texas Tech. We also have Ole Miss in the tease bag, waiting for a partner.)
Florida @ LSU (-7.5), 7:00
We have a lot to get to for tomorrow night so let's cut right to the chase here: LSU has beaten every team by 10+ points except Mississippi State, and they've won every home game by 21+. Miss State played them by far the closest of anyone this year, and LSU squeaked by with a 2 point win. Overall, MSU has a pretty average defense, and the box score doesn't show that they did anything crazy in that game. In reading recaps, it seems like LSU got clipped by some dumb penalties? I like LSU, but I'd prefer to toss it into the tease bag.
Boston College @ Clemson (-16.5), 7:00
Honestly guys, sixteen and a half against the best defense in the country? I don't even know if Clemson can score 17 points. Give me BC, please and thank you.
USC @ Notre Dame (-5), 7:30
As you guys know, we can't bet against Notre Dame. But I wanted to take a second to send some T's and P's to Steve Sarkisian, I hope he gets some help and some clarity in the next few months.
Missouri @ Georgia (-14.5), 7:30
Mizzou has been up and down this season, but Georgia has scored 30+ on everyone except Alabama. If we could tease the Dawgs down to (or even inside) a touchdown, I'd be all for adding it to the teasebag. At 14.5 though? I think I'd have to stay away.
Penn State @ Ohio State (-17.5), 8:00
Here's your weekly Mail It In Direct Quote From Clay Travis On Outkick The Coverage: "I can't tell you guys how much I love this game. Last year Penn State took Ohio State to double overtime after playing them virtually even in total yardage for the entire game.
There was nothing flukish about this game, in fact, Ohio State actually got the benefit of some atrocious first half calls, otherwise Penn State might have won in regulation.
This year Penn State has won five straight games after a tough opening week loss to Temple. But most of the nation hasn't even noticed this. Meanwhile, Ohio State has been mediocre all season long, failing to cover in every game since week one.
So you're telling me I've got a Penn State team that knows it was good enough to beat Ohio State last year, going on the road in a game that no one is giving them any chance to win? This is the situation that James Franklin dreams of, he's great at playing the no respect card.
My jaw dropped when I saw this line open at Ohio State -17.5. So far it hasn't budged much off that line. Don't just hammer Penn State here, take them on the money line for a part of your bet too. Get rich, kids."
Arizona State @ Utah (-6), 10:00
I mentioned in the Texas A&M preview that this weekend is when we'll find out if Arizona State is a legit contender out west. They aren't. Utah is going to spank them. This line inside of a touchdown is the easiest money of the whole weekend. Lock of the week, Utah -6.
Oregon @ Washington (-3), 10:30
I was really surprised to see this line. Oregon, recently, has been a contender for the Pac-12 title every year for a long time now Could 3-2 Washington really be favored over them? How fucking disrespectful is that? Then I did some digging (not a lot, tbh) and found that Washington won at USC last week and went to Boise State and only lost by 3 earlier this year. Boise State ran for 2 touchdowns and kicked 2 field goals, and USC ran for 1 and kicked 2. Against Michigan State and Utah (good defenses), Oregon combined to throw for 3 touchdowns, run for 3 more, and kick 0 field goals. Against the rest of their opponents, the Ducks averaged 2.0 touchdowns in the air, 3.8 touchdowns on the ground, and 2.3 field goals. So, yeah, Vegas, I think you fucked up and I think I'll take the Ducks -3 and the moneyline at +125 too.
Showing posts with label ohio state. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ohio state. Show all posts
Friday, October 16, 2015
Friday, October 2, 2015
College Football Week 5 Betting Guide
West Virginia @ Oklahoma, 12pm
WVU has beaten up on Georgia Southern, Liberty, and Maryland by a combined score of 130-23. They held their only Big Five opponent to 6 points. They haven't played a road game yet, but the 'Eers went 4-1 on the road last year.
Oklahoma destroyed Akron 41-3 in their opener, then beat Tennessee 31-24 on the road, then beat Tulsa 52-38 at home.
This is a tricky game to predict, and Vegas has been holding around Oklahoma -7. I think that is too many points, so I'm on WVU +7 before it changes to +6.5
Iowa @ Wisconsin, 12pm
Wisconsin lost to Alabama in week one, and it wasn't pretty. Since then, they are 3-0 and have outscored their opponents 114-3. That was a classic B1G Cupcake Run against Miami (OH), Troy, and Hawaii, but still.... 114-3.
Likewise, Iowa has played a classic B1G Cupcake Schedule so far, beating Illinois State and North Texas at home, beating Pittsburgh at home without their only elite player, and getting a huge win on the road against The Second Worst Team In The Big 12. They are being portrayed as a stout run defense, but Wisconsin is going to run all over them.
I have no idea how this line is only 7 points. Give me Wisconsin -7 in this situation every day for the rest of the football season.
(Note: Iowa State is the second-worst team in the Big 12, but Kansas is the worst and ISU is favored by 17 against the Jayhawks this week.)
Alabama @ Georgia, 3:30
This is right from Clay Travis' preview this week: "Here's the deal, these two teams are almost completely equal except Greyson Lambert is playing much better than either of Alabama's quarterbacks. So how do you not take the better quarterback playing at home when the teams are otherwise equal? (And when Georgia can actually make a field goal). The Dawgs win, sending Alabama and Auburn to 0-2 starts in the SEC for the first time in the history of the SEC."
Clay's been hot recently, so let's go Dawgs - UGA -1.5.
Ohio State @ Indiana, 3:30
I wish I had the balls to take Indiana +21.5 here because I don't think OSU will be able to cover that, but I don't.
Ole Miss @ Florida, 7pm
I guess I don't understand how the Rebels, who beat Alabama on the road, are only favored by 7.5 against Florida. The Gators have played one possession games against Tennessee, Kentucky (!), and East Carolina (!!). Maybe throw Ole Miss into a teaser to get it closer to a pickem, but even at the regular spread I still like Ole Miss -7.5.
Notre Dame @ Clemson, 8pm
We have a very staunch "No Betting On Notre Dame" policy, but they're actually getting two points at Clemson. The Irish blew the doors off of Texas, beat Virginia (on the road) and Georgia Tech by a touchdown each, and smacked UMass last week.
Clemson dominated Wofford and App State (snore), and beat Louisville by 3 points on the road.
DeShone Kizer got his tune-up game last week against woeful UMass, and I think ND is just flat out better than Clemson. But we don't bet on them here. I'm just looking out for you guys.
WVU has beaten up on Georgia Southern, Liberty, and Maryland by a combined score of 130-23. They held their only Big Five opponent to 6 points. They haven't played a road game yet, but the 'Eers went 4-1 on the road last year.
Oklahoma destroyed Akron 41-3 in their opener, then beat Tennessee 31-24 on the road, then beat Tulsa 52-38 at home.
This is a tricky game to predict, and Vegas has been holding around Oklahoma -7. I think that is too many points, so I'm on WVU +7 before it changes to +6.5
Iowa @ Wisconsin, 12pm
Wisconsin lost to Alabama in week one, and it wasn't pretty. Since then, they are 3-0 and have outscored their opponents 114-3. That was a classic B1G Cupcake Run against Miami (OH), Troy, and Hawaii, but still.... 114-3.
Likewise, Iowa has played a classic B1G Cupcake Schedule so far, beating Illinois State and North Texas at home, beating Pittsburgh at home without their only elite player, and getting a huge win on the road against The Second Worst Team In The Big 12. They are being portrayed as a stout run defense, but Wisconsin is going to run all over them.
I have no idea how this line is only 7 points. Give me Wisconsin -7 in this situation every day for the rest of the football season.
(Note: Iowa State is the second-worst team in the Big 12, but Kansas is the worst and ISU is favored by 17 against the Jayhawks this week.)
Alabama @ Georgia, 3:30
This is right from Clay Travis' preview this week: "Here's the deal, these two teams are almost completely equal except Greyson Lambert is playing much better than either of Alabama's quarterbacks. So how do you not take the better quarterback playing at home when the teams are otherwise equal? (And when Georgia can actually make a field goal). The Dawgs win, sending Alabama and Auburn to 0-2 starts in the SEC for the first time in the history of the SEC."
Clay's been hot recently, so let's go Dawgs - UGA -1.5.
Ohio State @ Indiana, 3:30
I wish I had the balls to take Indiana +21.5 here because I don't think OSU will be able to cover that, but I don't.
Ole Miss @ Florida, 7pm
I guess I don't understand how the Rebels, who beat Alabama on the road, are only favored by 7.5 against Florida. The Gators have played one possession games against Tennessee, Kentucky (!), and East Carolina (!!). Maybe throw Ole Miss into a teaser to get it closer to a pickem, but even at the regular spread I still like Ole Miss -7.5.
Notre Dame @ Clemson, 8pm
We have a very staunch "No Betting On Notre Dame" policy, but they're actually getting two points at Clemson. The Irish blew the doors off of Texas, beat Virginia (on the road) and Georgia Tech by a touchdown each, and smacked UMass last week.
Clemson dominated Wofford and App State (snore), and beat Louisville by 3 points on the road.
DeShone Kizer got his tune-up game last week against woeful UMass, and I think ND is just flat out better than Clemson. But we don't bet on them here. I'm just looking out for you guys.
Thursday, January 22, 2015
Thursday Night College Hoops Preview
If I knew how to add a location to this post, I would tag it 'posted from Rock Bottom'. There are very few feelings in the world that are worse than seeing your Bovada balance at $0.00 (though if you have some time I'd highly recommend this Barstool post about a man who caught his wife cheating).
The gang is reuniting in person this weekend, and you can bet your ass that we will be back. To get back into the swing of things, I want to make sure we actually still have the ability to predict a game. Seriously, we have lost just about every bet we've placed in the last week. "College basketball gurus like you read about" has turned into "fuck man why can't we have nice things?"
Nothing like some conference play on a Thursday night to get back on the horse. Here are four previews for the big ones tonight:
Ohio State @ Northwestern, 7pm, ESPN
Line: OSU -7
I hate to see a road team giving that many points in such a crazy, balanced conference, but Ohio State is definitely a better team all around than Northwestern. The Buckeyes score 80.5 points a game and give up 61.2 (both top-60 in the country), but those become more balanced at 70 points scored and 66.8 points against in conference play.
I should note that two of those losses (71-65 and 76-67 were to Iowa, who out-rebounded the Bucks 74 to 60 and out-shot them from the field 47-97 (48.4%) to 47-117 (40.2%). As a means of comparison, Ohio State's season averages are 50.3% shooting (3rd in the nation) and 39.1% allowed (35th).
Northwestern, as you will see, is not as good as Iowa. They shoot 43.2% from the field (171st) and allow opponents to shoot 40.9% (which, to their credit, is 100th-best). They do not get a lot of offensive rebounds, but their defensive rebounding rate is 75.6%, which is 25th in the country. In Big Ten play, their average rebounding margin is +1.2 (33.8 to 32.6). The Buckeyes' offensive and defensive rebound percentages are 33.0 (66th) and 70.9% (176th), so it might end up being tight on the boards.
As much as the stats seem to favor OSU, I don't know if they can cover. Wisconsin aside (because they're in a class of their own in the B1G), nobody has beaten Northwestern by more than 7 points in conference play this season. Though they did lose by 8+ to Central Michigan, Butler, Georgia Tech, and Northern Iowa.
In the end, I think Ohio State will win a close game. I don't know if they can cover 7, but I have a feeling this will be the night that Northwestern's B1G dream comes crashing down. Who knows, maybe I'm just overrating them but I'm leaning Bucks. What I'd like even more would be a player prop for D'Angelo Russell - opposing guards have been shredding the Cats in the past few games. He opened on Bovada at 18.5 points, and I'm in on that.
Alabama @ Arkansas, 7pm. ESPN2
Line: Arkansas -7
Both teams are 2-2 in SEC play. Alabama beat Texas A&M at home 65-44, won 56-38 @ Tennessee, lost 68-66 @ South Carolina, and lost 70-48 at home to Kentucky. By most measures, they are an average non-Kentucky SEC team (which includes all SEC teams not based in Lexington).
Arkansas won 79-75 @ Georgia, won 82-70 at home against Vanderbilt, lost 74-69 @ Tennessee, and lost 96-82 at home to Ole Miss. So, again, we have a team that is a member of the "everybody can beat everybody" portion of the SEC.
In their three non-UK games, Alabama outshot their opponents 44.7% to 30.8% (win), 41.7% to 31.1% (win), and 48.8-41.5 (loss). That loss to South Carolina happened because the Cocks overcame 3-14 from three point range by out-rebounding the Tide 33-23 (13-4 offensive rebounds). In their two conference wins, in addition to the shooting percentage differential, 'Bama has won the battle on the boards as well.
So this game (at least as far as the moneyline) comes down to one question: can Arkansas out-rebound Alabama? The Hogs are 87th in the country in rebounds per game, including 19th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage. That's a yes, give me Arkansas to win for sure.
As far as covering, Kentucky blew it open because they shot 8-17 from three and 16-18 from the free throw line, and out-rebounded Alabama 30-21. They also won the assist battle 14-4 and held the Tide to just 7 free throw attempts.
It would be absolutely foolish to think Arkansas can dominate this game like Kentucky did last week. But, that being said, the Razorbacks are 6th in the country in points per game, 4th in assists per game, 33rd in field goal percentage, and 30th in three point percentage. Throw in the home crowd, and I like the Razorbacks to cover tonight.
#7 Arizona @ Stanford, 9pm, ESPN2
Line: Arizona -3.5
Stanford has yet to lose a home game this season. They lost to Duke on a neutral court and they lost at Depaul, BYU, and UCLA.
In road games this year, Arizona beat UTEP 60-55, lost 71-67 to UNLV, beat Oregon 80-62, and lost 58-56 to Oregon State. In terms of RPI, Stanford is rated 59 spots higher than UTEP, 94 spots higher than UNLV, 69 spots higher than Oregon, and 55 spots higher than Oregon St. In fact, the only Pac12 teams with a better RPI than Stanford are Arizona and Utah (who, by the way, just lost by 18 to Arizona).
I'm going to go ahead and call Arizona's loss to Oregon State a fluke. The Cats shots just 37.8% from the floor (season average is 48.9%) and allowed the Beavs to shoot 51.3% (they average 43.8% on the season and Arizona averages 39.6% against).
The closest Stanford has come to losing a home game was against Washington (#21 at the time, now unranked), who took them to overtime before the Christmas Trees pulled away and won by 8.
Arizona is clearly the best team to play at Stanford, and definitely at least the second-best team they have played (depends on how you feel about Duke). On a neutral floor, I'd love to take the Cats to cover the 4 point spread because they have been playing great - that home win over Utah is really incredible. My hesitation tonight is a combination of Stanford's success at home, Arizona's inconsistent play on the road, and the hangover effect from that huge win against the Utes.
Gun to my head, I like the Wildcats. Thankfully, there is not a gun to my head so I'll stay away.
Saint Mary's @ Gonzaga
Line: Gonzaga -15
These are the top two teams in the West Coast Conference (which is a great name for a conference but actually kind of sucks - I'd love a WCC with USC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford, San Diego State, Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State, and Gonzaga).
Both sit at 7-0, and they've reached that mark in pretty dominant fashion. SMC has won their games by an average of 70.4 to 58.9. Their closest win was by 5 points over BYU, and only three of their games have been within 10 points. The Zags, similarly, have been dominant: they've scored 78.7 points per game and allowed just 64. However, Pepperdine came within 2 points of upsetting Gonzaga (though that was a road game for GU).
I respect Mark Titus' opinion on college basketball, and he seems to think that Gonzaga is a legit contender. In his post from today, he has them ranked 4th in the nation. When you watch them, it's easy to see why. They don't appear to have a weakness at any point on the floor.
But fifteen points? In one of the two biggest games Saint Mary's will play all year? (The other game, of course, if Gonzaga @ St. Mary's.) I am not so sure the Zags can do it.
Against top-level competition (based on RPI), we don't have a ton of info for the Gaels. They beat #50 BYU 82-77 and #83 Northeastern 72-68 (both at home), and lost @ #40 St. John's 53-47 and at home to #66 BYU 82-71. As it stands, SMC is ranked 63rd in the RPI.
Gonzaga is going to be far and away the best team to play against St, Mary's this season. Their RPI rank is 6, and their only loss was to the team that is currently 7 (Arizona). Here's how the Zags did against the highest-ranked teams they have played (courtesy of CBS Sports:
The gang is reuniting in person this weekend, and you can bet your ass that we will be back. To get back into the swing of things, I want to make sure we actually still have the ability to predict a game. Seriously, we have lost just about every bet we've placed in the last week. "College basketball gurus like you read about" has turned into "fuck man why can't we have nice things?"
Nothing like some conference play on a Thursday night to get back on the horse. Here are four previews for the big ones tonight:
Ohio State @ Northwestern, 7pm, ESPN
Line: OSU -7
I hate to see a road team giving that many points in such a crazy, balanced conference, but Ohio State is definitely a better team all around than Northwestern. The Buckeyes score 80.5 points a game and give up 61.2 (both top-60 in the country), but those become more balanced at 70 points scored and 66.8 points against in conference play.
I should note that two of those losses (71-65 and 76-67 were to Iowa, who out-rebounded the Bucks 74 to 60 and out-shot them from the field 47-97 (48.4%) to 47-117 (40.2%). As a means of comparison, Ohio State's season averages are 50.3% shooting (3rd in the nation) and 39.1% allowed (35th).
Northwestern, as you will see, is not as good as Iowa. They shoot 43.2% from the field (171st) and allow opponents to shoot 40.9% (which, to their credit, is 100th-best). They do not get a lot of offensive rebounds, but their defensive rebounding rate is 75.6%, which is 25th in the country. In Big Ten play, their average rebounding margin is +1.2 (33.8 to 32.6). The Buckeyes' offensive and defensive rebound percentages are 33.0 (66th) and 70.9% (176th), so it might end up being tight on the boards.
As much as the stats seem to favor OSU, I don't know if they can cover. Wisconsin aside (because they're in a class of their own in the B1G), nobody has beaten Northwestern by more than 7 points in conference play this season. Though they did lose by 8+ to Central Michigan, Butler, Georgia Tech, and Northern Iowa.
In the end, I think Ohio State will win a close game. I don't know if they can cover 7, but I have a feeling this will be the night that Northwestern's B1G dream comes crashing down. Who knows, maybe I'm just overrating them but I'm leaning Bucks. What I'd like even more would be a player prop for D'Angelo Russell - opposing guards have been shredding the Cats in the past few games. He opened on Bovada at 18.5 points, and I'm in on that.
Alabama @ Arkansas, 7pm. ESPN2
Line: Arkansas -7
Both teams are 2-2 in SEC play. Alabama beat Texas A&M at home 65-44, won 56-38 @ Tennessee, lost 68-66 @ South Carolina, and lost 70-48 at home to Kentucky. By most measures, they are an average non-Kentucky SEC team (which includes all SEC teams not based in Lexington).
Arkansas won 79-75 @ Georgia, won 82-70 at home against Vanderbilt, lost 74-69 @ Tennessee, and lost 96-82 at home to Ole Miss. So, again, we have a team that is a member of the "everybody can beat everybody" portion of the SEC.
In their three non-UK games, Alabama outshot their opponents 44.7% to 30.8% (win), 41.7% to 31.1% (win), and 48.8-41.5 (loss). That loss to South Carolina happened because the Cocks overcame 3-14 from three point range by out-rebounding the Tide 33-23 (13-4 offensive rebounds). In their two conference wins, in addition to the shooting percentage differential, 'Bama has won the battle on the boards as well.
So this game (at least as far as the moneyline) comes down to one question: can Arkansas out-rebound Alabama? The Hogs are 87th in the country in rebounds per game, including 19th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage. That's a yes, give me Arkansas to win for sure.
As far as covering, Kentucky blew it open because they shot 8-17 from three and 16-18 from the free throw line, and out-rebounded Alabama 30-21. They also won the assist battle 14-4 and held the Tide to just 7 free throw attempts.
It would be absolutely foolish to think Arkansas can dominate this game like Kentucky did last week. But, that being said, the Razorbacks are 6th in the country in points per game, 4th in assists per game, 33rd in field goal percentage, and 30th in three point percentage. Throw in the home crowd, and I like the Razorbacks to cover tonight.
#7 Arizona @ Stanford, 9pm, ESPN2
Line: Arizona -3.5
Stanford has yet to lose a home game this season. They lost to Duke on a neutral court and they lost at Depaul, BYU, and UCLA.
In road games this year, Arizona beat UTEP 60-55, lost 71-67 to UNLV, beat Oregon 80-62, and lost 58-56 to Oregon State. In terms of RPI, Stanford is rated 59 spots higher than UTEP, 94 spots higher than UNLV, 69 spots higher than Oregon, and 55 spots higher than Oregon St. In fact, the only Pac12 teams with a better RPI than Stanford are Arizona and Utah (who, by the way, just lost by 18 to Arizona).
I'm going to go ahead and call Arizona's loss to Oregon State a fluke. The Cats shots just 37.8% from the floor (season average is 48.9%) and allowed the Beavs to shoot 51.3% (they average 43.8% on the season and Arizona averages 39.6% against).
The closest Stanford has come to losing a home game was against Washington (#21 at the time, now unranked), who took them to overtime before the Christmas Trees pulled away and won by 8.
Arizona is clearly the best team to play at Stanford, and definitely at least the second-best team they have played (depends on how you feel about Duke). On a neutral floor, I'd love to take the Cats to cover the 4 point spread because they have been playing great - that home win over Utah is really incredible. My hesitation tonight is a combination of Stanford's success at home, Arizona's inconsistent play on the road, and the hangover effect from that huge win against the Utes.
Gun to my head, I like the Wildcats. Thankfully, there is not a gun to my head so I'll stay away.
Saint Mary's @ Gonzaga
Line: Gonzaga -15
These are the top two teams in the West Coast Conference (which is a great name for a conference but actually kind of sucks - I'd love a WCC with USC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford, San Diego State, Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State, and Gonzaga).
Both sit at 7-0, and they've reached that mark in pretty dominant fashion. SMC has won their games by an average of 70.4 to 58.9. Their closest win was by 5 points over BYU, and only three of their games have been within 10 points. The Zags, similarly, have been dominant: they've scored 78.7 points per game and allowed just 64. However, Pepperdine came within 2 points of upsetting Gonzaga (though that was a road game for GU).
I respect Mark Titus' opinion on college basketball, and he seems to think that Gonzaga is a legit contender. In his post from today, he has them ranked 4th in the nation. When you watch them, it's easy to see why. They don't appear to have a weakness at any point on the floor.
But fifteen points? In one of the two biggest games Saint Mary's will play all year? (The other game, of course, if Gonzaga @ St. Mary's.) I am not so sure the Zags can do it.
Against top-level competition (based on RPI), we don't have a ton of info for the Gaels. They beat #50 BYU 82-77 and #83 Northeastern 72-68 (both at home), and lost @ #40 St. John's 53-47 and at home to #66 BYU 82-71. As it stands, SMC is ranked 63rd in the RPI.
Gonzaga is going to be far and away the best team to play against St, Mary's this season. Their RPI rank is 6, and their only loss was to the team that is currently 7 (Arizona). Here's how the Zags did against the highest-ranked teams they have played (courtesy of CBS Sports:
- #15 SMU (home): won 72-56
- #27 Georgia (neutral): won 88-76
- #40 St, Johns (neutral): won 73-66
- #50 BYU (away): won 87-80
- #64 UCLA (away): won 87-74
I mean, based on that, I think they could very well cover 15 points. In their home games this season, they average 86 points for and 55.9 points against. Let that sink in for a minute. They have been DESTROYING teams by literally more than 30 points, on average.
Fuck it, I'm in on Gonzaga. St. Mary's has kept it close against bum teams, and they are in for a looooong night tonight.
So the ticket for tonight is D'Angelo Russell over 18.5 points, Arkansas -7, and Gonzaga -15. If you feel the need, you can tease Arkansas and Gonzaga down to -3/-2,5 and -11/-10.5.
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