Friday, September 18, 2015

Week 3 College Football Preview

We stayed away from last night's game because (1) Clemson is a mystery to us (2) Louisville is a mystery to us (3) there was a good NFL matchup on and we wanted to eat 4 vigs and end up with nothing.

Now it's Friday afternoon and it's time to look to the weekend!

Florida State -8 @ Boston College, 12:00
I certainly understand the reasoning behind this close line, because BC has conceded 3 points and scored 100. But they've played Maine and Howard. And this is BC we're talking about. They weren't even on the board for national championship odds until this week, and now they're 500/1.

FSU has played a pretty cake schedule so far as well, but they're FSU. The have Golson and Cook in the backfield. That's it. It's that simple.

What worries me about taking FSU by more than a touchdown: Golson's QBR last week against USF was in the twenties. That's bad. And the last time Dalvin Cook rushed for less than 100 yards was last season... against BC. That's worse.

At the end of the day though, Bovada has FSU at 28/1 to win the title this year, and the Noles clearly cannot lose this game for that to happen. The FSU moneyline is -350, so this is prime material to throw into the #teasebag.

Georgia Tech -3 @ Notre Dame, 3:30
This is from Barstool Chief's blog about Notre Dame's undefeated season: "You’d think losing the starting nose tackle, the starting TE, the starting RB, and the starting QB would have me worried, but you’re wrong. You don’t become the foremost “ND is going undefeated” expert on the internet without being able to trick your own brain."

Allow me to use some rational thought here. Ga Tech is going to put up a lot of points, just like they always do. That alone means there's a good chance somebody wins by more than three. And now factor in ND is missing it's entire starting offense, and I'm in on GT -3. 

Auburn @ LSU, 3:30
I don't really like the line here (LSU -7 or Auburn +7) but I wanted to mention that I wrote a blog saying the SEC was good and the Big 12 and Pac 12 were bad. And then Auburn almost lost to Jacksonville State. 

South Carolina @ Georgia -16, 6:00
I like UGA, but I hate any SEC team by two touchdowns against another SEC team. Throw Georgia directly into the #teasebag, please and thank you. Chubb life. 

Stanford @ USC -9.5, 8:00
Stanford stinks and USC is good. Why is this line as close as it is? Bingo bango. 

Rutgers +9 @ Penn State, 8:00
I don't think there are two teams in all of sports that have fucked us more than Rutgers and PSU. My gut says this stays within a touchdown, and I like the under 46 too. Rutgers scored 63 against Norfolk State (who stink) and 34 against Washington State (high-scoring, high-paced offense). They won't be able to do that at PSU, who gave up 14 points to Buffalo and an abhorrent 27 to Temple. 

As for the Nits (apparently that's a thing that we call them now), they really struggled against Temple and only scored 10 points. They put up 27 against Buffalo - that's flirting with the over/under for tomorrow's game. 

Ole Miss @ Alabama, 9:15
The game of the weekend, without question. Bovada has the Tide favored by a touchdown and the over/under set at 53. Alabama got into the mid-thirties against Wisconsin and Middle Tennessee State, and Ole Miss has scored more than 70 against Hot Garbage University and Southern Dumpster Fire State. 

Am I crazy for taking the over here? Usually SEC games are brutal affairs where you have to grind for every touchdown, but these are two very good offenses. 

Also, I'm hoping Ole Miss wins and I'm nervous that they might lose by forty - and the over would still probably hit there. 

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