Monday, September 28, 2015

Monday Night Football Betting Preview: Chiefs @ Packers

I was going to write something here about how Chiefs is disrespectful to Indian chiefs and how there are too many people that use "chief" as an alternative for "dude" or "bro". But then I took a hard left and started writing about how Green Bay's whole setup makes fun of people like Charlie Kelly and me who eat too much cheese and smell like farts all the time.

Glad we avoided that, welcome to the Monday Night preview.

Green Bay Packers -7 (-115)
What if I told you that Kansas City would play a game in which Alex Smith threw 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, the Chiefs won the turnover battle 2-1, and they still only managed to beat the Houston Texans by one possession? Well, it happened in week one.

KC followed that performance by losing to Denver (by 7) in a game where they out-rushed the Broncos 147 yards to 61. They lost because Peyton Manning threw 3 touchdowns and 1 interception while Alex Smith had a reality check and threw 0 touchdowns and 2 interceptions.

Denver has a top-tier defense. Houston, Kansas City, and Green Bay are all in the middle of the pack. The point here is Alex Smith will probably look more like Week One Alex than Week Two Alex.

The problem is the guy on the other sideline is going to look like Aaron Rodgers, who torched Seattle (top-tier defense) and Chicago (actually middle of the pack, at least on defense) for a combined 76.8% completion percentage, 438 yards, 5 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. He's also rushed for 58 yards, which is 80 more yards than Big Time Expensive Free Agent DeMarco Murray.

Justin Houston and Eric Berry are not slouches. But Rodgers carved up the Seahawks for an 89.2 QBR.

Total Points Over 49.5 (-110)
Week One Alex Smith versus Any Week Aaron Rodgers should mean both teams get into the 20s. Plus, this is somewhat of a hedge to that first bet because there is a scenario where KC scores 40-50 points and Green Bay just can't hang.

Alex Smith Rushing Yards Over 17.5 (-115)
Smith ran for 15 yards in each of the first two games. Green Bay gave up 31 rushing yards to Jay Cutler and 78 yards to Russell Wilson. I don't think he's going to get quite as many as Russell, but I definitely like him over 17.5.

Aaron Rodgers Rushing Yards Over 20.5 (-125)
This one is a little harder to read, because KC has faced Peyton Manning, Brian Hoyer, and Ryan Mallett. Those guys have combined for one rush attempt total through two games, and it was for 6 yards. Rodgers ran 8 times for 35 yards against Chicago and 6 times for 23 yards against Seattle. I'm addicted to betting quarterback rush overs, so hell yes I like him to go for 20+ tonight.

Jeremy Maclin Receiving Yards Over 60.5 (-125)
Maclin went for 52 yards against Houston and 57 yards against Denver. So why is his total for this game this high? I have no idea but I know that Vegas is smarter than me so I'm hopping on the Maclin train and we are full steam ahead away from Logic Station.

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