Monday, September 21, 2015

Monday Night Football Preview: Jets @ Colts

Because this worked out so well for us last time (haha), we dug through all 75 bets available on Bovada tonight so we can make some money off these two teams that are both going to miss the playoffs because they both stink. 

Point Spread: New York Jets +7 (-120)

The Jets beat the Browns 31-10 last week. The Colts lost 27-14 to the Bills. The Browns then beat the Titans in week two, while the Bills lost at home to the Patriots. Ipso facto, Jets are winning this game #outright (but I don't like that enough to bet it at +225).

The biggest different from week one to week two, at least as far as this spread is concerned, is the difference between the Jets' opponents. Last week they held Johnny Manziel to 13/24 attempts for 182 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Josh McCown did a little better (I guess), going 5/8 for 49 yards.

Andrew Luck is better than Manziel or McCown, and he throws it about twice as many times per game as the Browns. Last week, the Bills held him to 26/49 attempts for 243 yards and two touchdowns, but he also threw two interceptions. He rushed 4 times for 20 yards (nice), and the Jets gave up a total of 58 rushing yards to Manziel and McCown. I love betting on quarterback rushing props, and tonight is no different. My lock of the night:

Andrew Luck Rushing Yards Over 19.5 (-125)

Luck threw 28.5% of his attempts (and 26.9% of his completions) to T.Y. Hilton, who is either going to sit out tonight with a knee injury or get put on Revis Island. When he gets ruled out for the game, I might have the balls to take a more Jets-friendly spread.

New York Jets +3.5 (+120) or New York Jets Outright +225

On the other side of the ball, New York is going to have a few decent options for getting into the end zone. This is a Colts team that allowed Tyrod Taylor to complete almost 75% of his passes for a QBR of 88.2. Tyrod Taylor. What do you think #Harvard graduate Ryan Fitzpatrick is going to do tonight? I'll tell you what he's going to do:

Ryan Fitzpatrick Passing Yards Over 210.5 (-130) and Touchdown Passes Over 1.5 (-125)

And the Jets aren't even really a passing team. I expect Chris Ivory to go OFF tonight, and Vegas tends to agree. They have his over/under for rushing yards at 74.5, which is only a hair lower than Last Year's League-Leading Rusher DeMarco Murray. Ivory to get into the endzone also pays out like somebody who Vegas expects to score but plays on a team that may end up scoring no touchdowns all night.

Chris Ivory Rushing Yards Over 74.5 (-125) and To Score A Touchdown (+120)

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