Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Monday Night Football Recap: Chiefs @ Packers

Obligatory, because I heaped on praise yesterday and he absolutely killed it.
I went very heavy on the Packers yesterday, because they have been the class of the NFC for about as long as I can remember. And the Chiefs are led by Andy Reid and Alex Smith, who are generally bad.

Green Bay +7 (Win)
Three minutes into the fourth quarter, Green Bay scored to go up 38-14. Game over, cover not in question, no worries. 

Then Alex Smith marched 89 yards down the field and scored to cut it to a 2 possession game with about ten minutes left. Then he did it again with a minute and a half left, but they missed the extra point to leave it at a ten point deficit. 

We've been crushed enough to know what was coming: onside kick, meaningless touchdown, Packers kneel the ball to win the game but not cover the spread. 

But nope, Green Bay went 3-and-out but took enough time off the clock to close it out. 

Total Points Over 49.5 (Win)
This over was a product of Smith doing what was expected and Rodgers exceeding expectations.  

It's also a product of Jamaal Charles rushing for three (!!) touchdowns, but still losing the game because his quarterback went for a QBR below 20.

Aaron Rodgers Rushing Yards Over 20.5 (Loss)
He finished the game with 2 rushes for 16 yards. Damn. This is my favorite kind of player prop to bet, because it only takes one long run to hit. This just wasn't the night for that to happen.

Alex Smith Rushing Yards Over 17.5 (Win)
Like I just said, it only takes one. Smith finished with 33 rushing yards, but 19 of them came on one attempt in an absolute garbage situation right before the first half ended. You couldn't ask for a dumber way to cover.

Jeremy Maclin Receiving Yards Over 60.5 (Win)
My logic on this bet was "his stats the first two games would lead me to think he's going under, and I can't understand why the line is this high." Well guys, Vegas knows best and J-Mac ended the night with 141 receiving yards (including one for 61 yards, so we had another #OverInOnePlay situation). Sometimes you have to set logic/reasoning aside and just read the line.

Last night: 4-1
Monday nights: 11-10
Thursday nights: 6-8-1

And I will repeat, fuck the NFC East.

No comments:

Post a Comment