Examining How The Euro2016 Betting Odds Have Shifted

I first looked at Bovada's odds for winning, advancing, and scoring goals a week ago yesterday. After lots of research (maybe not "lots" but you know how I do things), here is the bet slip I decided on as of May 31st:

• France to win the tournament +325
• Parlay France and Germany to win their groups -135
• Top tournament goalscorer:
• Cristiano Ronaldo, Portugal +800
• Graziano Pelle, Italy +3300
• Danny Welbeck, England +5000
• Thomas Muller, Germany +700
• Paco Alcacer, Spain +2500

As the tournament kickoff date approaches, I wanted to see how the betting landscape had shifted based on the bets people were placing. Here's the biggest changes:

To Win The Tournament

Biggest winner: France (+325 to +300)

The French had been tied with the Germans at +325 co-favorites, but they've taken enough action to push the lines to +300/+450. I don't think my blog analysis had anything to do with the lines moving that much, but I do think my logic was the cause of the shift. 

Biggest loser: Italy (+1400 to +1600)

Not only did Italy's odds become a little longer, but Portugal moving from +2000 to +1600 means the Italians and Portugese are now tied. My analysis of that: neither of these teams has a chance of winning. 

Top Tournament Goal Scorer

Biggest winners: 

• Alvaro Morata, Spain (+2000 to +1800)
• Mario Gomez, Germany (+3300 to +2500)
• Jamie Vardy, England (+3300 to +2800)
• Mario Mandzukic, Croatia (+3300 to +2800)

There isn't a clear-cut winner, because the board is still topped by Muller, Ronaldo, Griezmann, and then the Giroud/Lewandoski/Kane trio. But Morata and Gomez made fairly significant moves, and those two are certainly worth a look if you're betting France and looking to hedge with the Top Goalscorer prop. 

Biggest losers: 

• Daniel Sturridge, England (+4000 to +5000)
• Andre Schurrle, Germany (+5000 to +8000)
• David Silva, Spain (+5000 to +8000)
• Christian Benteke, Belgium (+5000 to +8000)
• Pedro, Spain (+5000 to +10000)
• People who bet on players who are not actually going to play like Paco Alcacer and Danny Welbeck

Nobody was a bigger loser than the idiot who told people to bet on Alcacer and Welbeck as decent long shots before we got confirmation that they were participating in the tournament. But Pedro was close, because for some reason he took the standard 5000-to-8000 drop and decided to fall even further down the board to 100/1. 

To Win Groups A and C

France and Germany were the runaway favorites in their groups, at -325 and -300 respectively, so we parlayed them at -135. 

Those three figures are now -350, -300, and -141. 

The Revised Bet Slip

France to win the tournament +300

Parlay France and Germany to win their groups -141

Top tournament goalscorer

• Ronaldo, Portugal +800
• Pelle, Italy +3300
• Gomez, Germany +2500
• Morata, Spain +1800

Euro 2016: Get To Know Team France

The bet is in. We are on France +325 to win the Euro Cup this year.

That came after a lot of analysis that basically boils down to two points:

1. France and Germany are the co-favorites, and Germany's probably inflated a bit because of their recent success.
2. The French squad has the most players with 50/1 odds or less to lead the tournament in goals scored.

Bang, that's a recipe for a good bet. The big issue is we don't really know anyone on Team France. So let's change that and make our Euro-watching experience even more enjoyable. 

Best Odds To Lead The Tournament In Goals

We briefly mentioned these four yesterday in our tournament preview post, but we'll go a little more in detail so that we feel like we know them all personally. Because they all play up top, obviously they won't all be contributing significantly. But I'd imagine that at least two of these four forwards will be toward the top of the tournament leaderboard in goals.

Antoine Greizmann, Forward (+900)
Age: 25
Club: Atletico Madrid
Fun Facts: He won the public vote to be on the cover of FIFA 16 in France with Lionel Messi. He has a daughter named Mia, who may or may not be named after the Fast & Furious character.

Olivier Giroud, Striker (+1400)
Age: 29
Club: Arsenal
Fun Facts: He did not play any matches with the France junior national teams but has been regularly selected for the senior team since 2011. He has a tattoo with a verse from Psalm 23 on his arm, but he also cheated on his wife with an Instagram model.

Anthony Martial, Forward (+2000)
Age: 20
Club: Manchester United
Fun Facts: He just moved to the Premier League this past September, in a move that fetched a transfer fee of  £36 million. He scored four goals in his first four matches for ManU and finished with 17 goals in 49 matches in all competitions.

Andre-Pierre Gignac, Striker (+3300)
Age: 30
Club: Los Tigres UANL
Fun Facts: He goes by the nickname Dede, which I believe is pronounced day-day (but might also be dee-dee). He played 11 seasons in France before retiring to Mexico, where he led the league in goals this year and earned $45 million (Mexican).

Old Heads - Midfielders & Defenders

You know and love (or hate) all of these guys already. Every one of them has been playing professionally for 10+ years, and nearly all of them played at some point in the Premier League. They don't need much introduction, but here they are anyway.

Yohan Cabaye, Midfielder
Age: 30
Club: Crystal Palace
Fun Fact: He is of Vietnamese descent and has stated he would like to continue to grow the game of futbol in Vietnam. Last year, he signed a contract to play for £65,000 per week with Palace, who are not located in Vietnam.

Blaise Matuidi, Midfielder
Age: 29
Club: PSG
Fun Fact: Bleacher Report called him a "fierce and strong tackler" three years ago, so expect some highlight-reel hit-stickery from him.

Dimitri Payet, Attacking Midfielder
Age: 29
Club: West Ham
Fun Fact: In 2007, the British license plate WE57 HAM sold for £57,000.

Patrice Evra, Left Back
Age: 35
Club: Juventus
Fun Facts: He was born in Senegal but plays for France. He played his first professional match in 1998, when Anthony Martial was two years old.

Laurent Koscienly, Center Back
Age: 30
Club: Arsenal
Fun Fact: He could have opted to play for Poland instead of France, but he did not because - common theme here - France is better than Poland.

Adil Rami, Center Back
Age: 30
Club: Sevilla
Fun Facts: He is nicknamed "Shrek". His parents are actually Moroccan but he plays internationally for France because they are better than Morocco.

Bacary Sagna, Right Back
Age: 33
Club: Manchester City
Fun Fact: He has the coolest hair on the whole team, as long as you think "cool" means "bleached dreadlocks" instead of actual cool hair styles.

The Oldest Of The Heads

Hugo Lloris, Goalkeeper
Age: 29
Club: Tottenham Hotspur
Fun Fact: ESPN once said that he "commands his box well" which is just an incredible quote. From 1997 to 2008, he played for Nice, which may or may not be related to the box comment.

Young Bucks - Midfielders & Defenders

The younger generation of French football - led by Martial and a few of the players to follow - are not as well-known as the guys we've been watching for a decade. But there is a lot of talent that should come off the bench for Coach Didier Deschamps; let's get to know them.

Paul Pogba, Midfielder
Age: 23
Club: Juventus
Fun Fact: He's not really a young buck, because he's established himself as one of the best midfielders in the world (he led Serie A in assists last year).

N'Golo Kante, Midfielder
Age: 25
Club: Leicester City
Fun Facts: Sort of the opposite of Pogba, he's a young buck in that this is his first selection for the French national team. Also, if you didn't hear, Leicester were a very heavy underdog to win the Premier League this year AND THEY WON IT.

Samuel Umtiti, Left Back/Center Back
Age: 22
Club: Lyon
Fun Fact: Since 2001, the only teams he's played for are Lyon and France, which seems rare for players of this caliber.

Lucas Digne, Left Back/Left Midfielder
Age: 22
Club: PSG/Roma
Fun Fact: He shares a birthday with the chick who plays Alicia Clark on Fear The Walking Dead. Sorry, fun facts were scarce for him.

Kingsley Coman, Winger
Age: 19
Club: Juventus/Bayern Munich
Fun Fact: He won Serie A and the Coppa Italia in his first professional season, and then won the Bundesliga and the DFB-Pokal in his second season. The kid is a winner, plain and simple. Except for the goddamn rat tail, that's a big time loser move.

Let's Make Some Money On The Euro Cup

Similar to the Hockey World Cup coming this fall, the Futbol Euro Cup is going to pit the most talented players in the world against each other in the name of national pride.

And, like every sports tournament ever, it's also going to be a great opportunity to lose money and yell at the television.

Odds To Win The Cup

In examining the odds to win the 2016 Euros, there are seven teams with a reasonable or somewhat reasonable chance to lift the trophy. They are:

• France and Germany (co-favorites, each at +325)
• Spain and England (traditional powers, +550 and +750 respectively)
• Belgium, Italy, and Portugal (+1000, +1400, and +2000 respectively)

Odds To Win Group Stage

France (-325) will likely win Group A. Germany (-300) will likely win Group C. Parlaying these two pays -135, which seems like a decent payout considering the opposition is Switzerland, Romania, Albania and Poland, Ukraine, Northern Ireland. 

England (-140), Spain (-165), and Portugal (-125) should each win their respective groups. If you're looking for a dark horse to upset one of them, it'd be Croatia (+210) over Spain. 

The first real early battle will take place in Group E, where Belgium (-105) and Italy (+160) will face off. 

How Do We Pick Who To Bet On?

For those of you who maybe don't follow soccer as much as you should, the point of the game is to score as many goals as possible. Here is who Bovada thinks is going to lead the tournament in goals scored (I capped it at +5000 because, let's be real, nothing beyond those odds will ever happen in soccer):

Germany

Thomas Muller (+700), Mario Gotze (+3300), Mario Gomez (+3300), Andre Schurrle (+5000), Max Kruse (+5000)

France 

Antoine Greizmann (+900), Olivier Giroud (+1400), Anthony Martial (+2000), Andre-Pierre Gignac (+3300), Alexandre Lacazette (+4000), Dimitri Payet (+5000)

Spain

Alvaro Morata (+2000), Paco Alcacer (+2500), Aritz Aduriz (+3300), David Silva (+5000), Pedro (+5000)

England

Harry Kane (+1400), Jamie Vardy (+3300), Wayne Rooney (+3300), Daniel Sturridge (+4000), Danny Welbeck (+5000)

(Editor's note: England is basically like the current New York Yankees, in that their players aren't actually that good but there is so much goddamn media scrutiny that you know everything about all of these guys. So take it with a grain of salt because I'm sure more people will be betting on Rooney than on Andre-Pierre Gignac or Aritz Aduriz.)

Belgium

Romelo Lukaku (+2000), Eden Hazard (+3300), Kevin De Bruyne (+3300), Christian Benteke (+5000)

Italy

Graziano Pelle (+3300)

Portugal

Cristiano Ronaldo (+800)

Rest of World

Robert Lewandoski, Poland (+1400)

Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Sweden (+2500)

Mario Mandzukic, Croatia (+3300)

Gareth Bale, Wales (+4000)

Here are my takeaways: 

From a team perspective, I think France is the play. Germany's big guns are probably inflated a bit due to their recent success, and England's are similarly deflated but for the opposite reason. France has those first five guys that will all be contributing to the score sheet, and it's nice to have options in a long tournament like this one. 

Individually, either Pelle or Ronaldo should be your first look. Vegas thinks those two teams are going to have a successful run, and those are the only two players on the list for their respective teams. Here's some math for you:

You need goals to win + Those teams are going to win = Those guys are going to score

Now, to be fair, there is not a single player who will be receiving more hype than Ronaldo. His moneyline is probably adjusted to reflect that like half the money on this prop will be going to him. I think Pelle is an interesting play, just because his odds are so insanely high.

To Lead The Field In Goals Scored

In the Premier League, ten of the players listed above scored 8 or more goals this season.

1. Harry Kane (+1400), 25 goals in 38 games
2. Jamie Vardy (+3300), 24 goals in 36 games
3. Romelo Lukaku (+2000), 18 goals in 37 games
4. Olivier Giroud (+1400), 16 goals in 38 games
5. Graziano Pelle (+3300), 11 goals in 30 games
6. Anthony Martial (+2000), 11 goals in 31 games
7. Christian Benteke (+5000), 9 goals in 29 games
8. Dimitri Payet (+5000), 9 goals in 30 games
9. Daniel Sturridge (+4000), 8 goals in 14 games
10. Wayne Rooney (+3300), 8 goals in 28 games

Around the rest of the world, here's how the rest of the list compared:

• Zlatan Ibrahimovic (+2500), 38 goals in 31 games in France
• Alexandre Lacazette (+4000), 21 goals in 34 games in France
• Robert Lewandoski (+1400), 30 goals in 32 games in Germany
• Thomas Muller (+700), 20 goals in 31 games in Germany
• Andre Schurrle (+5000), 9 goals in 29 games in Germany
• Cristiano Ronaldo (+800), 35 goals in 36 games in Spain
• Antoine Greizmann (+900), 22 goals in 38 games in Spain
• Aritz Aduriz (+3300), 20 goals in 34 games in Spain
• Gareth Bale (+4000), 19 goals in 23 games in Spain
• Paco Alcacer (+2500), 13 goals in 34 games in Spain
• Mario Mandzukic (+3300), 10 goals in 27 games in Italy

And, for good measure, here are the leaders in goal-scoring for Euro Qualifying:

1. Robert Lewandoski (+1400), 13 goals in 10 games
2. Zlatan Ibrahimovic (+2500), 11 goals in 10 games
3. Thomas Muller (+700), 9 goals in 9 games
4. Wayne Rooney (+3300), 7 goals in 8 games
5. Gareth Bale (+4000), 7 goals in 10 games
6. Danny Welbeck (+5000), 6 goals in 5 games
7. Cristiano Ronaldo (+800), 5 goals in 6 games
8. Paco Alcacer (+2500), 5 goals in 8 games
9. Eden Hazard (+3300), 5 goals in 9 games
10. Kevin De Bruyne (+3300), 5 goals in 10 games

The Bet Slip

France to win the tournament +325

Parlay France and Germany to win Groups A and C -135

Top tournament goalscorer: 

Ronaldo +800 - I'd rather lose than bet the favorite, which is good because he's technically not the favorite

Pelle +3300 - I love this bet and there's like a 100% chance he ends up with zero goals

Welbeck +5000 - 50/1 for a guy who scored more than a goal per game in qualifying? Yes please

Muller +700 - He actually is the favorite, but we need someone from Germany to hedge our France bet and he scores all of the goals for Germany

Alcacer +2500 - We also need a Spaniard to hedge that bet and Alcacer is the best bet

There you have it - we'll check in as the tournament progresses. Feel free to laugh at me on twitter when France, Germany, and Italy all get eliminated in the group stage and Ronaldo tears his Achilles in the second match. 

Tuesday Afternoon Euro Qualifying Preview

Guys, it's the worst day ever. Summer is over. You're sunburned. It's a million degrees outside. You're back in the cube from now until Christmas.

There is one bright spot to cheer up your weekday afternoons: European soccer starts at like 2pm here, because time zones. Between club and international futbol, there always seems to be something to occupy the post-lunch lull at work.

Today, we're going to load up on the Euro qualifiers. Most of these teams have played 7 matches so far, so we should have a pretty solid baseline to judge how things are going to end up. Let's jump right in:

Belarus (-290) v. Luxembourg (+750)
I can't figure out why Belarus is so heavily favored in this matchup. Bovada has them as pretty sizable favorite given how close they are in the table. In a classic "I'm going to regret this later because Vegas knows more than me about everything move", I think the play here is Luxembourg +1.5 (-130). It's a decent payout and it gives us a little room to breathe.

Macedonia (+1800) v. Spain (-700)
You aren't going to bet on Macedonia. And unless you're planning on parlaying Spain with at least one other game, you have to give up some goals to make it worth anything. Personally, I like Spain -1.5 (-185) as a bet with a decent payout and a really good chance of coming true. The Spaniards are averaging a little more than two goals per game, and they should be able to go clean sheet against this Macedonia team (that would pay -250, by the way).

Slovakia (+175) v. Ukraine (+180)
If you bet on this game, you have a problem.

Georgia (-2000) v. Gibraltar (+2500)

This game kicked off before this post went up, but I wanted to include it because MINUS FORTY-FOUR GOALS IN EIGHT GAMES.

England (-140) v. Switzerland (+400)

This is an easy England bet. They're riding high off their annual romp of San Marino, and their roster is just too stacked to lose to an inferior team (this early, give them until at least after qualifiers). 

Lithuania (-2000) v. San Marino (+5000)
Slovenia (-200) v. Estonia (+575)
If you bet these, call for help.

Liechtenstein (+1800) v. Russia (-750)
Similar to the Spain situation, you have to give up some goals to make a Russia bet worthwhile. And Russia just doesn't score enough to justify giving them 1.5 or 2.5 goals. I'm staying away from this one.

Sweden (+115) v. Austria (+240)
I can't really tell for sure, but I think the Swedish National Team site is telling us that Zlatan is starting. That's good enough for me, I'll take Sweden to win please and thank you.  

Moldova (+310) v. Montenegro (Even)
I don't feel confident putting money on a small team like Montenegro away from home (even though I think they will win). However, Bovada has the over/under at 2 goals here and the over pays -115. It would be surprising to see it stay under, and I like the ability to push if it happens to end 1-1 or 2-0. I'm going to cross my fingers, hope for 2-1 Montenegro, and run into traffic when it ends 1-0.

Wednesday Premier League Picks - Week 14

Yesterday's picks finished as 3 wins, 2 losses, and a push. And when you count that I knew going in that I was going to hate the Crystal Palace-Aston Villa match, so let's just call it 3-1-1 for +1.7. Not a bad day.

Throw in that today's EPL games are easy, and we have a nice start to NCAA Championship Weekend (welcome to gambling, where the weekend starts on Tuesday afternoon and ends on Monday night).

Southampton @ Arsenal 
Arsenal's recent form has been (1) beat bad teams and (2) lose to decent teams. Southampton just got drubbed by Man City, but have been a pleasant surprise and are currently at third in the table with a goal differential of +15 through 13 matches (8 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses). If you are betting this game without research, you take Arsenal. However, that's not the way to do it.
Pick: Southampton win or draw +105 (you could also talk me into Southampton Pick'em +240)


Spurs @ Chelsea
At this point in the season, my usual strategy for Chelsea has just been to pick them to cover the spread every match. In general, it works. No need to change.
Pick: Chelsea -1.5 (+120)

Hull City @ Everton
Everton are disappointingly near the middle of the table. Hull are near the bottom of the table, and have only managed one point out of their past five EPL contests. There is a gang of players on the injury report for Everton, and I worry that their Europa League success coupled with their early EPL struggles may lead them to focus more on international contests. I wish I didn't have to give so much juice on the Everton moneyline (-200), and this qualifies as my "I Hate This Game So I'm Taking The Tie" bet of the day.
Pick: Draw +335

Man City @ Sunderland
It's always tough to pick against Jozy Altidore (who else had no idea that Jozy was short for Josmer?), but this City side is just stacked with talent. Bovada has the "normal" line at -1, but I'm taking an extra half a goal for a larger payout. Live life on the edge (and then regret it at 4:30 when the score is 2-1).
Pick: Man City -1.5 (+135)

Tuesday EPL Picks - Week 14

Tuesday mornings are turning into my favorite morning of the week. I update my spreadsheet for Are You The One? (guilty pleasure) and there always seems to be some top-level futbol.

No Champions League today, but there are a handful of Premier League matches, and we are going 5-5 today:

Newcastle United @ Burnley
This one is easy. Burnley are in 19th place, Newcastle are in 9th but have won 4 of 5. Take the pick'em because draws can be a real buzzkill.
Pick: Newcastle Pick'em (-125)

Liverpool @ Leicester City
Another easy one. Leicester are in last place in the whole league. I don't think it will be a blowout, but there is a large talent discrepancy.
Pick: Liverpool to win -105

Stoke City @ Manchester United
The first contest of the day with a point spread! Can ManU win by two goals to cover? They haven't beaten anybody by more than a goal since QPR in mid-September. Before that, it was Liverpool in early August. I think I like where this is headed.
Pick: Stoke +1.5 (-150)

QPR @ Swansea City
Swansea are pretty evenly split between 5 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, and they've managed a +3 goal differential. QPR have won 3, drawn 2, and lost 8 for a goal differential of -11. However, in the past few weeks QPR (at least in terms of results) is similar to - if not better than - Swansea. The Rangers (god I hate them so much) best Leicester and Aston Villa
Pick: QPR win or draw (+125)
Prediction: Swansea wins 6-0.

Aston Villa @ Crystal Palace
I hate everything about picking this game. Both teams are 3-4-6, but Crystal Palace has scored 11 more goals and have a touchdown advantage in goal differential. I think the only logical play here is to pick a draw and hope it ends 1-1.
Pick: Draw +240
Prediction: Someone wins with a goal in stoppage time.

West Ham @ West Brom
Battle for the West Side! Just kidding, these teams are nowhere near each other geographically. They are also nowhere near each other in the EPL table; West Brom are in 15th place with 13 points and West Ham are in 5th place with 21 points. Thanksgiving/Turkey season is over and it is not officially Christmas/Ham time.
Pick: West Ham Pick'em (+110)