Wednesday, December 3, 2014

Wednesday Premier League Picks - Week 14

Yesterday's picks finished as 3 wins, 2 losses, and a push. And when you count that I knew going in that I was going to hate the Crystal Palace-Aston Villa match, so let's just call it 3-1-1 for +1.7. Not a bad day.

Throw in that today's EPL games are easy, and we have a nice start to NCAA Championship Weekend (welcome to gambling, where the weekend starts on Tuesday afternoon and ends on Monday night).

Southampton @ Arsenal 
Arsenal's recent form has been (1) beat bad teams and (2) lose to decent teams. Southampton just got drubbed by Man City, but have been a pleasant surprise and are currently at third in the table with a goal differential of +15 through 13 matches (8 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses). If you are betting this game without research, you take Arsenal. However, that's not the way to do it.
Pick: Southampton win or draw +105 (you could also talk me into Southampton Pick'em +240)

Spurs @ Chelsea
At this point in the season, my usual strategy for Chelsea has just been to pick them to cover the spread every match. In general, it works. No need to change.
Pick: Chelsea -1.5 (+120)

Hull City @ Everton
Everton are disappointingly near the middle of the table. Hull are near the bottom of the table, and have only managed one point out of their past five EPL contests. There is a gang of players on the injury report for Everton, and I worry that their Europa League success coupled with their early EPL struggles may lead them to focus more on international contests. I wish I didn't have to give so much juice on the Everton moneyline (-200), and this qualifies as my "I Hate This Game So I'm Taking The Tie" bet of the day.
Pick: Draw +335

Man City @ Sunderland
It's always tough to pick against Jozy Altidore (who else had no idea that Jozy was short for Josmer?), but this City side is just stacked with talent. Bovada has the "normal" line at -1, but I'm taking an extra half a goal for a larger payout. Live life on the edge (and then regret it at 4:30 when the score is 2-1).
Pick: Man City -1.5 (+135)

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