Wednesday, December 10, 2014

Wednesday Afternoon Champions League Picks - Round 6

Yesterday afternoon didn't go so well, but last night was a banner night on the hardwood. Villanova and Baylor covered easily. Bradley covered easily. We decided to not bet against Pitino (acknowledging your own biases are a huge part of betting), and took Montrezl Harrell's points at the last minute. All 4 hit, and now we're rich.

So let's turn around and blow it on some Euro footy! Odds from (and for the first, time this season, I am not picking all the matches because some of them are really shite):

Group E

CSKA Moscow @ Bayern Munich
Bayern does not need any points here, as they've already secured first place. So I hate betting these games because you never really know what you're going to be getting. The Bayern moneyline is only -425, so what would even be the point there? I hate most of the available lines, but let's have a little fun with it.
Pick: Bayern to win and both teams to score (+140)

Manchester City @ Roma
If Man City wins, they're probably through. If Roma wins, they are also probably through. CSKA Moscow could complicate things if they happen to win, but do we really think that's going to happen? For this game in Rome, Sergio Aguero and Yaya Toure are out and that's all she wrote.
Pick: Roma pick'em (-110)

Group F

PSG @ FC Barcelona
Both of these teams are through, but the loser draws Bayern next. Ibrahimovic is out for PSG, and the Barca front line is still Messi/Neymar. Any other questions?
Pick: Barcelona -1.5 (+110)

Group G

Sporting Lisbon @ Chelsea
Chelsea have the first spot in the group locked up. Sporting are definitely through with a draw, and they're getting the Chelsea B-team with the big names (Costa, Terry, Fabregas, Hazard, Oscar, Drogba) probably not seeing a whole lot of action.
Pick: Sporting win or draw (+125)
Update: Costa and Fabregas played and as I type this in the 70th minute, it is 3-1 Chelsea. Great!)

Group H

BATE Borisov @ Athletic Bilbao
Two teams that can't advance, so they're playing for the 3-spot and (I believe) the right to play in the Europa League. Borisov are only one point behind Bilbao, but are seventeen points back in goal differential. It really is impressive that a team at this level can have a differential of -20 through five matches. Christ. You don't deserve the Europa League.
Pick: Bilbao -1.5 (-115)

Shakhtar Donestk @ FC Porto
I HATE Shakhtar Donestk. I spell their name wrong every time I type it. Unfortunately, they are advancing to the next round. The seeds are set because Porto have built up such a lead (and the teams in the previous game blow so hard), so this is another meaningless match. However, these teams are pretty evenly matched in that they have each conceded just three goals and have scored 15 and 14 respectively. Offense, anyone?
Pick: Over 2.5 goals (Even)
Prediction: 0-0 draw

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