Wednesday Afternoon Champions League Picks - Round 6

Yesterday afternoon didn't go so well, but last night was a banner night on the hardwood. Villanova and Baylor covered easily. Bradley covered easily. We decided to not bet against Pitino (acknowledging your own biases are a huge part of betting), and took Montrezl Harrell's points at the last minute. All 4 hit, and now we're rich.

So let's turn around and blow it on some Euro footy! Odds from Bovada.lv (and for the first, time this season, I am not picking all the matches because some of them are really shite):

Group E

CSKA Moscow @ Bayern Munich
Bayern does not need any points here, as they've already secured first place. So I hate betting these games because you never really know what you're going to be getting. The Bayern moneyline is only -425, so what would even be the point there? I hate most of the available lines, but let's have a little fun with it.
Pick: Bayern to win and both teams to score (+140)

Manchester City @ Roma
If Man City wins, they're probably through. If Roma wins, they are also probably through. CSKA Moscow could complicate things if they happen to win, but do we really think that's going to happen? For this game in Rome, Sergio Aguero and Yaya Toure are out and that's all she wrote.
Pick: Roma pick'em (-110)

Group F

PSG @ FC Barcelona
Both of these teams are through, but the loser draws Bayern next. Ibrahimovic is out for PSG, and the Barca front line is still Messi/Neymar. Any other questions?
Pick: Barcelona -1.5 (+110)

Group G

Sporting Lisbon @ Chelsea
Chelsea have the first spot in the group locked up. Sporting are definitely through with a draw, and they're getting the Chelsea B-team with the big names (Costa, Terry, Fabregas, Hazard, Oscar, Drogba) probably not seeing a whole lot of action.
Pick: Sporting win or draw (+125)
Update: Costa and Fabregas played and as I type this in the 70th minute, it is 3-1 Chelsea. Great!)

Group H

BATE Borisov @ Athletic Bilbao
Two teams that can't advance, so they're playing for the 3-spot and (I believe) the right to play in the Europa League. Borisov are only one point behind Bilbao, but are seventeen points back in goal differential. It really is impressive that a team at this level can have a differential of -20 through five matches. Christ. You don't deserve the Europa League.
Pick: Bilbao -1.5 (-115)

Shakhtar Donestk @ FC Porto
I HATE Shakhtar Donestk. I spell their name wrong every time I type it. Unfortunately, they are advancing to the next round. The seeds are set because Porto have built up such a lead (and the teams in the previous game blow so hard), so this is another meaningless match. However, these teams are pretty evenly matched in that they have each conceded just three goals and have scored 15 and 14 respectively. Offense, anyone?
Pick: Over 2.5 goals (Even)
Prediction: 0-0 draw

Tuesday Afternoon Champions League Picks - Round 6

Here we go. The final round (of group play). No better way to get in the Christmas spirit than mailtiming it for one week watching futbol and then taking the entire next week off and going to the Bahamas (translated: let's win some money so I can drink a million Kaliks).

Here are the Tuesday games this week, and as always I'm giving you winners on all of them. Keep in mind, this is the last round and some teams have already clinched or been eliminated:

Anderlecht @ Borussia Dortmund
Anderlecht are eliminated with only 5 points through the first 5 matches. Dortmund have 12, and have a narrow lead on Arsenal (who have 10 and get to stomp the shit out of Galatasaray today). In games like these, when one team is a lot better, the only thing that scares me is a lack of motivation. Well how's this for motivation, from manager Jurgen Klopp: "This is also about getting a boost for our upcoming Bundesliga matches – this game fits nicely into our schedule and the opposition will pose a real challenge." Whatever. You can NOT pick Anderlecht here.
Pick: Dortmund -1.5 (-150)

Basel @ Liverpool
Unless you think Lodogorets Razgrad is taking 3 points from the Real Madrid B-team, this Basel-Liverpool match is going to determine 2nd place in Group B. Liverpool are mid-table in the EPL, whereas Basel are decidedly in first place in the Swiss Super League. That doesn't tell us a whole lot, but Basel (at least based on results, because I admittedly have not watched a whole lot of them) seem to be a much better team at home. They are on the road today, and that's good enough for me.
Pick: Liverpool to win -140

Ludogorets @ Real Madrid
Cristian Bale cannot finish any lower than first place. It seems like that means time off (for either injury or suspension) for the following: James, Luca Modric, Sergio Ramos, Sami Khedira. It's tough to know if that will also mean a day of rest for Ronaldo, Bale, Chicharito, Isco, or Tony Kroos. Christ, this team is stacked. Carlo Ancelotti, your thoughts? "I will decide my lineup in the morning. If players are not in good condition, they won't play." Oh, well what the fuck does that even mean? What did it for me was the Real Madrid form guide from the past 5 matches across all competition: WWWWW (it looks the same for their last 5 Champions League matches). I am, however, taking an extra half-goal - just in case.
Pick: Real Madrid -2 (-210)

Arsenal @ Galatasaray
Unless I am grossly misunderstanding the Champions League format, Arsenal needs to win this match to have any shot of coming in first in Group D. The Gunners and Dortmund are going to be dealt two of the three teams from the (currently tight-knit) trio of Bayer/Monaco/Zenit. There isn't a ton of difference, as they're all great teams, so it's tough to know how much urgency Arsenal will have today. But what I can tell you is Galatasaray have not won a match in the Champions League this year (-12 goal differential), and their best result was a 1-1 draw against 3rd place Anderlecht. This one is easy - grab the draw protection and this is my favorite bet so far.
Pick; Arsenal pick'em (-125)

Malmo @ Olympiakos
Malmo is out. Olympiakos is in if (1) they win (2) Juventus loses to Atletico Madrid (3) they make up a goal differential of eight. Probably not going to happen, but you know those rowdy Greeks are going to bring it. Old Limpy Tacos are 2-0 at home and 0-3 on the road, so I do expect them to win. However, I don't think I like the 1.5 goal line. So for some more juice, both teams have conceded 11 goals through 5 games. Malmo have scored 2 and Olympiacos have scored 6.
Pick: Parlay Olympiakos to win (-270) with Over 1.5 total goals (-400) for a line of -140

Zenit @ AS Monaco
One of the matches that should help decide who gets to play Arsenal or Dortmund. Monaco have scored two goals (both in 1-0 wins), and have drawn two matches 0-0. Zenit have scored 4 and given up 4. Normally in these situations we just bet on Hulk. Factor in that Ricardo Carvalho is out (suspension) and my fear of Dimitar Berbatov subsided when I realized it isn't 2010, and there's no reason to change that.
Pick: Zenit pick'em (Even)
Prediction: Dimitar Berbatov scores and the game ends 1-0 Monaco

Bayer Leverkusen @ Benfica
If you're Bayer, would you rather play Dortmund of Arsenal? Arsenal? Then you better win this game and get all three points.
Pick: Bayer pick'em (-190)

Atletico Madrid @ Juventus
Both of these teams are likely advancing, and Diego Forlan is getting the 1st seed barring something outrageous. (Wait, what? Diego Forlan hasn't played for Atletico Madrid since 2011? WHAT?) Bovada has this pick'em (so it's protected against a draw) as -210 for Juve and +160 for Atleti. I'll use the same logic here as I did for Olympiakos. They probably can't move up, but they are going to have a rowdy crowd and a talented team on the pitch.
Pick: Juventus pick'em -210

You might notice there aren't any bets with any huge payouts on the ticket today. If you're looking for a parlay, move the pickems to winners and tack on half a goal where applicable (a draw/push doesn't do anything for you in a parlay). The 9-line parlay pays +27300.

Round 5 Champions League Picks (Part II)

Yesterday was a decent day on the pitch, and you will never hear me complain about hitting 5 and missing 3. The trouble with betting every match is there are going to be some bets you don't like. Yesterday (in retrospect), the Roma/CSKA over and Shakhtar were those bets. Oh well. Can't dwell on it - there are games to bet today, and we're going for all of 'em.

Early Game (12pm)

Benfica @ Zenit
Pick: Zenit ML (Even)
Zenit have been really disappointing. They did extremely well (at least in my memory) in qualifying, but have scored only 3 goals in 4 matches. As it stands, they are on the outside looking in. They need a big home win to keep the dream alive, and Russia's best team should get a boost from the home crowd.

Late Games (2:45pm)

Galatasaray @ Anderlecht
Pick: Anderlecht Pick'em (-185)
These two teams stink! They have no hope of advancing (that will be Dortmund and Arsenal from this group). But I committed to picking every  game, so here we are. Through 4 games, they have conceded 9 and 13 goals respectively (while scoring only 5 and 3). To pile on the stink even further, the only player you have ever heard of on either of these teams (Wesley Sneijder) is fighting with the manager about playing time, and the rumor mill has him headed for Manchester United. I hate everything about this game, but I'll take the home team with less drama (and the protection against a draw).

Dortmund @ Arsenal
Picks: Dortmund Pick'em (-105) and Over 2.5 (-155)
Even with a head-to-head win, Arsenal cannot pass Dortmund in the table in this match. Dortmund have 4 wins in 4 tries, scoring 13 goals and conceding just 1. This is the match of the day so I gave you two picks - Dortmund is just in better form, and I expect something in the 3-1 or 3-2 range in their favor (but again, I like the protection against a 2-2 draw).

Olympiacos @ Atletico Madrid
Pick: Atletico -1 (-165)

Everyone is still alive in Group A, although Juve could essentially eliminate Malmo with a win in Sweden today. This matchup between the top two teams is an easy pick - Atletico are +7 and Old Limp Yakovs are -1. Easy. I almost went with -1.5 (+120), but I like the safety.

Juventus @ Malmo
Pick: Juve -1.5 (-125)
Confession time: I love Paul Pogba. I don't necessarily think Juventus are two goals better than Malmo, but I'm comfortable betting on Pogba/Tevez/Pirlo/Vidal and as this sentence goes on I like this pick more and more. Forza Juve!

Liverpool @ Ludogorets
Pick: Ludogorets Win/Draw (Even)
The second depressing match of the day. Neither team has a realistic shot at advancing, and even if they did they haven't been playing like teams that stand a chance against anyone. I'll use the same logic here and take the team with less drama.

Real Madrid @ Basel
Pick: Real -1.5 (-115)
The Bale/Ronando/Hames trio (and the other 8 guys) don't need a win. They don't even need a draw. They just need to not lose by 9 goals, and they clinch first place in the group. They just have a murderer's row of great soccer players. Even behind the big three (and with the All-World caliber players they're missing), their roster looks like a FIFA 2015 roster if you turned off the salary cap.

Monaco @ Bayer Leverkusen
Pick: Parlay Over 1.5 (-350) and Under 3.5 (-275) for a ML of -132
The Germans clinch first place with a win. Monaco moves to third place behind Zenit/Benfica if they lose. Both teams are going to be motivated, and this will probably be the second best match of the day. What worries me about this game: Monaco have won 1-0, lost 0-1, and drawn 0-0 twice. For what it's worth, that win was against Leverkusen. I got crafty with the pick because I have no idea how this game is going to turn out. Parlaying those two means we hit a nice payout of there are a total of 2 or 3 goals. The final will probably be 1-0 or 5-4. I hate betting.

Round 5 Champions League Picks

If you are a mild gambler, there isn't anything that makes a day in the cube more enjoyable than betting on Euro soccer. Mid-week Champions League matches can turn a dreary Tuesday into a fist-pumping good time (as long as you hide it from your boss).

My picks for this afternoon (I picked all of the matches):

Early Games (12pm Eastern)

FC Porto @ BATE Borisov
Pick: Porto ML (-200)

Porto have 3 wins and a draw for 10 points through four matches, and a +9 goal differential. At this stage in group play, you worry about teams resting back with a comfortable lead. However, Chelsea lead Group G (by a wide margin) and nobody wants to get stuck playing Chelsea. With only a 2 point lead over Shakhtar Donetsk, Porto really need to get all three out of this tilt.

Roma @ CSKA Moscow
Pick: Over 2.5 (-115)
I can't fathom how this over pays out as much as it does. Through 4 matches, Roma have scored 7 goals and conceded 11. CSKA have scored 5 and conceded 9. That's averages of 4+ and 3+. Easy over.

Late Games (2:45pm Eastern)

Athletic Bilbao @ Shakhtar Donetsk
Pick: Shaq ML (-155)

I used the same graphic as the Porto match because the logic is exactly the same. Those two are going to go all out because nobody wants to play Chelsea.

Bayern Munich @ Manchester City
Pick: Man City +170 (pick 'em)

I know I'm going to be kicking myself this afternoon when Bayern wins 6-1, but those odds are too nice to pass up. I keep telling myself that Bayern doesn't need a win, City badly needs a win, and Sergio Aguero is a beast (even though he's slightly injured - Jesus, this is a horrible pick). 

Barcelona @ APOEL

Pick: Barca -1.5 (-130)

Similar to Porto/Shaq battling to avoid Chelsea, Barca and PSG are battling to avoid Bayern. PSG currently has a 1 point edge over the Messis, so it's another situation where they won't be resting on their laurels. I did, however, take the -1.5 instead of the -2. It just feels safer. 

Ajax @ PSG

Pick: PSG -1.5 (Even)

Same logic as the Barca pick. Literally just change the names. 

Chelsea @ FC Schalke

Pick: Over 2.5 (-115)

Chelsea have scored 9 and conceded 2; Schalke have scored 8 and conceded 9. Chelsea's top half will likely be Costa, Hazard, Oscar, Schurrle, Matic, Fabregas. I had to double check to make sure that 2.5 wasn't their team total. It's for both teams, for the whole game? Yes please. 

Maribor @ Sporting Lisbon

Pick: Maribor +1.5 (-105)

Zig when everyone zags! Maribor is being talked about like they are the worst team at this dance, but they have more points than Athletic Bilbao/APOEL/Ajax/Galatasaray/Anderlecht/Manchester City. Even with the 6-0 beatdown they took against Chelsea, Maribor have a better goal differential than three other teams. I don't have the balls to take the +1000 moneyline, so give me a goal and a half and I'm closing this out with my favorite pick of the afternoon.