Thursday, December 4, 2014

Thursday Night NCAAB Picks

The most wonderful time of the year... college basketball season. If you follow along on Twitter, you know we hit on Nova and Michigan State last night (and the MSU spread-coverer was a real doozy), but then missed on the smaller bet on Wisconsin. Duke Devils look real good this year.

Now onto tonight. Nothing quite as big as two top-5 teams, but there are some major inter-conference games on the ticket.

TCU Horned Frogs @ Ole Miss Rebels (-6.5) o/u 129.5
TCU (7-0, 0-0 Away) Ole Miss (5-1, 2-1 Home)

TCU: 76.6 ppg/54.7 points against. Haven’t beat anyone of note. Off to a hot start and from what I read it “surprised” everyone. Have played 0 games away. Gotta lose at some point.

Ole Miss: 71.5 ppg/ 60.7 pts against. Let up 66 in OT loss in opener. Beat #23 Creighton by 7. Beat Cinci by 11. Ole Miss lost a “shocker” in their season opener, won 5 straight since. They have some good scorers (15, 13, 12 ppg).

Pick: Ole Miss -6.5. Both have good defenses, but Ole Miss has better scorers and apparently it’s tough to play at their court? Take Ole Miss and try not to overthink it.

Baylor Bears (-3) @ Vanderbilt Common Doors o/u 119.5
Baylor (6-1, 1-0 Away) Vandy (5-1, 4-0 Home)

Vandy: 69.2 ppg/ 56.8 points against. Only loss was to Rutgers. Vandy just beat LaSalle by 13 and were somehow a +2 underdog. Guess people aren't high on the Doors this year.

Baylor 68 ppg/ 51.1 points against). Only loss was to Illinois. Baylor just beat Texas Southern by 26 and covered the -21 spread. They've just been beating up on bad teams.

Pick: Flip a coin? Either take Baylor, Vandy, or the under. So maybe go out and buy something triangular and then flip that.

#18 Arkansas @ #20 Iowa State (-7.5) o/u 160.5 
9pm ESPN2
Arkansas (6-0, 1-0 Away) Iowa St (4-1, 3-0 Home)

Arkansas: 90 ppg/ 70.8 points against 46% 3PT and 20.7 APG. Force 18.5 TO/game

Iowa State: 83.4 ppg/ 69 points against. 34.4% 3PT. Force 14.4 TO/game.

Iowa State doesn't have a great defense. Arkansas 3 point shooting could open up the paint and I think 7.5 points is just too much against a team that can score like Arkansas. Neither team has played anyone too great. But Iowa lost to Maryland and let up 72. Won by 10 against Alabama but let up 74.

Pick: Arkansas +7.5. Give me the team averaging 90 a game and tack on another touchdown. Yes please.

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